林火动态研究与林火管理

林火动态是一个生态系统可持续性的稳定指标, 准确掌握林火动态和可燃物特性是制定合理林火管理策略或规划的基础。林火动态与可燃物积累过程密切相关, 了解森林可燃物积累过程是开展林火管理的基础。文中综述了林火动态及可燃物变化的研究进展。林火动态受地形、植被和气候等因素的影响, 随着气候、植被和人为活动的变化, 许多区域林火动态发生了显著变化, 并影响可燃物积累过程及其空间分布。森林结构和可燃物组成的变化会导致火频度、火灾类型和火强度发生变化, 林火管理对策也需要相应调整。我国重点林区的林火管理策略也应根据林火动态变化和可燃物情况进行调整, 以适应变化的气候和植被条件。     

黑龙江省林火规律研究I.林火时空动态与分布

根据黑龙江省1980-1999年的林火资料，利用地理信息系统等工具，对黑龙江省林火时空动态和分布规律进行了研究。结果表明，黑龙江省林火可分为1980-1987年的多发段和1988年以后的低发段。人为火与总林火规律相似：次数频谱周期为16、4.5a和2.3a，面积频谱周期为6a。雷击火次数频谱周期为9.1a和3.0a左右，面积频谱周期为9.1a。总林火次数和面积显著正相关，雷击火的次数与面积不相关。林火主要发生在4月、5月。人为火面积集中在3月、4月，雷击火面积集中在5月。林火由西北向东南呈条带状分布，具有自组织特点，分数维分别是0.86、1.05和0.68。对火频谱周期，自组织性进行了讨论，指出自组织函数将林火的时空特性结合在一起，采用负幂函数描述时存在适用下限并给出计算公式。对不同区域的自组织分数维进行了比较。对人为引入火烧的适宜强度和频度进行了简单探讨。     

林火研究综述(Ⅲ)*——ENSO对森林火灾的影响

阐述了厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜及ENSO循环的概念。还分析了厄尔尼诺和太阳黑子对林火的影响途径，发现厄尔尼诺引起的暖冬和干旱会导致春季火灾严重，太阳黑子引起的气候变化也会影响到我国森林火灾的发生。最后，对我国森林火灾的预防进行了讨论。     

林火与气候变化研究进展

火是全球大多森林生态系统中的一个重要干扰因子, 它对大气中的温室气体和气溶胶的增加有显著影响。林火与气候变化是当前林火研究领域的热点问题。文中综述了气候变化对林火的影响和林火排放物对气候变化的影响。大量研究表明, 气候变化将导致森林火险期延长, 出现潜在极端火行为的天数增多, 森林火灾更加严重, 特别是北方森林火灾增加显著。未来的研究趋势是, 采用卫星遥感数据在大尺度上研究气候变化对林火的影响, 把林火模型与气候模式和全球植被动力学模型耦合, 构建更为复杂的林火排放模型, 以深入揭示林火与气候变化的关系。     

内蒙古大兴安岭林火时空动态的变化特征

内蒙古大兴安岭森林火灾频发,研究其季节性变化趋势及空间动态分布特征,对今后该地区森林防火期划分和防火资源的合理分配具有重要意义。利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、滑动t检验法对1981—2018年内蒙古大兴安岭森林火灾数据进行趋势和突变分析,使用分位数回归法研究影响森林火灾过火面积的时间与空间因素,得出内蒙古大兴安岭森林火灾在时间和空间上的动态变化特征。结果表明：内蒙古大兴安岭森林火灾整体呈先下降(1981—1999年)再上升(2000—2007年)又下降(2008—2018年)的趋势。森林火灾主要发生在春、夏、秋三季,春季森林火灾变化较复杂,波动明显,在1991年发生突变;秋季森林火灾波动较平缓,但在1994年发生突变;2004—2011年期间夏季森林火灾明显增长,火险期向夏季发生偏移和延长;冬季发生火灾较少。森林火灾过火面积与火灾持续时间呈正相关,尤其在高分位点处,正相关性更加显著。内蒙古大兴安岭森林火灾主要发生在鄂伦春自治旗等地,从空间横向动态变化来看,整体呈现由西南向东北递增的趋势;从空间纵向动态变化来看,海拔对森林火灾过火面积的影响并不显著。建议应加强内蒙古大兴安岭东北...     

黑龙江省林火规律研究Ⅰ .林火时空动态与分布

根据黑龙江省 1980～ 1999年的林火资料 ,利用地理信息系统等工具 ,对黑龙江省林火时空动态和分布规律进行了研究。结果表明 ,黑龙江省林火可分为 1980～ 1987年的多发段和 1988年以后的低发段。人为火与总林火规律相似 :次数频谱周期为 16、4 5a和 2 3a ,面积频谱周期为 6a。雷击火次数频谱周期为 9 1a和 3 0a左右 ,面积频谱周期为 9 1a。总林火次数和面积显著正相关 ,雷击火的次数与面积不相关。林火主要发生在 4月、5月。人为火面积集中在 3月、4月 ,雷击火面积集中在 5月。林火由西北向东南呈条带状分布 ,西部、西南部和东北部林火较少。有 5个林火多发区。林火面积、平均蔓延速率、持续时间呈对数正态分布 ,具有自组织特点 ,分数维分别是 0 86、1 0 5和 0 6 8。对火频谱周期、自组织性进行了讨论 ,指出自组织函数将林火的时空特性结合在一起 ,采用负幂函数描述时存在适用下限并给出计算公式。对不同区域的自组织分数维进行了比较。对人为引入火烧的适宜强度和频度进行了简单探讨     

林火动态变化对我国东北地区森林生态系统的影响

我国积极的森林防火政策导致了我国东北林区的森林火周期延长,并影响到森林结构和可燃物组成的变化。火周期的延长会引起森林可燃物载量增加,并导致火频度、火灾类型和火强度发生改变。森林火周期延长还会引起大兴安岭地区云杉林的分布范围增大。植被的变化又对林火动态有反作用。为适应林火动态和可燃物的变化,我国东北林区森林防火政策需要作相应调整,采用林火管理思想开展森林防火工作。     

气候变化与林火研究综述

气候变化与林火是当前的研究热点之一,对当前气候变化与林火的研究方法及研究结果从以下5个方面进行了综述:(1)通过火历史研究长期气候变化对林火动态演变的影响;(2)通过森林群落和景观动态的变化研究气候变化、森林景观、林火三者之间的相互作用;(3)气候变化对由于森林燃烧引起的温室气体排放和全球碳循环的影响;(4)气候异常(如厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜)和太阳黑子活动对林火动态变化的影响;(5)气候变化条件下森林火险状况的长期及超长期预测。     

黔南州森林春季防火期主要气象因子与林火时空动态

运用克里格空间数据制图和传统统计分析相结合的方法对2001—2008年黔南州森林春季防火期主要气象因子与林火情况进行研究,结果表明:黔南州森林春季防火期内降雨量、蒸发量和最大风速相对空间分布不均匀,而最高气温、最小空气相对湿度则相反;空间分布上存在一定的水平地带性和垂直地带性,时间动态明显;森林火灾次数及火场面积呈逐渐增加趋势;空间分布上以都匀、平塘和罗甸3地为分界线,东南部6个县市森林火灾次数及火场面积大于西北部6县市。     

林火管理对火动态的影响

火是森林生态系统最主要的干扰因子之一。火动态研究是开展科学林火管理的基础。文中总结了当前全球各种植被类型的火动态,分析了不同林火管理政策对林火动态的影响,根据当前火动态恢复与重建的理论与技术发展提出了综合林火管理技术的发展趋势与技术难点。     

Extreme events and climate change: the post-disaster dynamics of forest fires and forest storms in Sweden

How are extreme events understood in the forest sector? What are the implications of forest professionals' understandings and evaluations of extreme events? These questions are central to this study, which analyses the handling of the largest forest storm and the largest forest fire in modern Swedish history. The theoretical approach is that of risk governance in practice, which stresses that understanding the framings, practices and strategies used by members of professional organizations is pivotal for how disasters are managed. Two interview studies have been conducted with forest professionals involved in the two cases. The analysis shows that there were fundamentally different understandings of the two events and their implications for forestry practice. The storm was seen as an unavoidable natural disaster, but the consequences of future storms were considered possible to mitigate through changed forest practices. The forest fire, on the other hand, was conceptualized as a partly natural and partly man-made disaster, and forestry was seen as having very limited possibilities to reduce the likelihood as well as the consequences of similar events. The different understandings had significant implications for the post-disaster dynamics and for which management practices that were developed. Thus, understanding how extreme events are perceived is crucial to understanding which management practices that emerge in their wake, a topic of growing relevance because climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of forest fires and storms.     

Potential impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems

Review of literature indicates that many uncertainties and assumptions exist in predicting the impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems. However, current knowledge is sufficient to encourage any measures that are combating climate change, that is to reduce first and foremost the release of harmful substances to the atmosphere, lithosphere and biosphere.     

Development and assessment of a gap-type model to predict the effects of climate change on forests based on spatial forest data

A gap-model was modified in order to utilise ground-true forest data to predict the effect of climate change on forests in Finland. The model's resonse to climate change was evaluated by using test scenarios of changing temperature and precipitation in Finland. Model computations indicated that in Southern Finland conifers, Norway spruce in particular, suffered from rapidly increasing temperature (0.5°C in a decade), but Scots pine derived a small benefit from a temperature increase of 0.1°C in a decade. Pendula birch profited by increasing temperature. In Northern Finland all tree species (Scots pine, Norway spruce, Pendula birch and Pubescent birch) used in simulations increased their stand volume and total production due to increased temperature. Precipitation changes had only little effect on stand volume and total production of trees on sites with coarse moraine as soil texture. The effect of soil texture on model performance was examined at a southern site under current climate using moraine, sand and silt as soil textures. Stand volume and total production of coniferous trees remained at a lower level on sand than on moraine soils or on silt. Response of birches to soil texture was similar to that of the conifers, but differences in total production between soil textures remained smaller.     

Nordic forest management towards climate change mitigation: time dynamic temperature change impacts of wood product systems including substitution effects

European Journal of Forest Research - Climate change mitigation trade-offs between increasing harvests to exploit substitution effects versus accumulating forest carbon sequestration complicate...     

Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on boreal forest climate change mitigation

? Context

The Kyoto Protocol allows the use of domestic forest carbon sequestration to offset emissions to a limited degree, while bioenergy as an unlimited emission reduction option receives substantial financial support in many countries.

? Aim

The primary objective of this study was to analyze (1) whether these limits on forest carbon sequestration would be binding, thereby leading to inefficient mitigation, and (2) the total potential effect of the protocol on the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in the forest sector.

? Methods

A partial equilibrium model of the Norwegian forest sector was used to quantify the GHG fluxes in a base scenario with no climate policy, a Kyoto Protocol policy (KP policy), and a policy with no cap on forest carbon sequestration (FC policy), assuming that the policies apply the rest of the century.

? Results

Carbon offsets are higher under the KP policy than in the base scenario and likewise higher than under the FC policy in the short run, but the KP policy fails to utilize the forest carbon sequestration potential in the long run as it provides considerably less incentives to invest in forestry than the FC policy.

? Conclusion

The KP increases the Norwegian forest sector’s climate change mitigation compared to no climate policy but less in the long run than a carbon policy with no cap on forest carbon credits.     

江苏省森林资源二类调查消长动态变化分析

江苏省最近的森林资源二类调查分别为1989年和2009年完成,两期调查都获取了详实的森林资源数据。通过全面对比调查结果,从林地面积、林种结构、林木蓄积、龄组结构、树种组成和森林资源质量等6个方面客观反映了全省森林资源动态变化现状,并深入分析了森林资源面积、蓄积和林种等主要因子的变化原因,总结了全省森林资源的变化特点：①...     

Climate risks and forest practices: forest owners' acceptance of advice concerning climate change

Based on qualitative interviews with Swedish forest owners this study focuses on climate change, risk management and forest governance from the perspective of the forest owners. The Swedish forest governance system has undergone extensive deregulation, with the result that social norms and knowledge dissemination are seen by the state as important means of influencing forest owners' understandings and practices. Drawing on Foucault's concept of governmentality this study contributes knowledge on how forest owners understand and manage climate-related risk and their acceptance of advice. From the interview study, three main conclusions can be drawn: (1) forest owners' considerations largely concern ordinary forestry activities; (2) knowledge about forest management and climate adaptation combines experiences and ideas from various sources; and (3) risk awareness and knowledge of “best practices” are not enough to ensure change in forestry practices. The results of this study show that the forest owners have to be selective and negotiate about what knowledge to consider relevant and meaningful for their own forest practice. Accordingly, local forest management can be understood as situated in a web of multifarious interests, claims, concerns and knowledges, where climate change adaptation is but one of several aspects that forest owners have to consider.     

A comparative analysis of spatial, temporal, and ecological characteristics of forest fires in seasonally dry tropical ecosystems in the Western Ghats, India

The Western Ghats in India is one of the 25 global hotspots of biodiversity, and it is the hotspot with the highest human density. This study considers variations in the regional fire regime that are related to vegetation type and past human disturbances in a landscape. Using a combination of remote sensing data and GIS techniques, burnt areas were delineated in three different vegetation types and various metrics of fire size were estimated. Belt transects were enumerated to assess the vegetation characteristics and fire effects in the landscape. Temporal trends suggest increasingly short fire-return intervals in the landscape. In the tropical dry deciduous forest, the mean fire-return interval is 6 years, in the tropical dry thorn forest mean fire-return interval is 10 years, and in the tropical moist deciduous forest mean fire-return interval is 20 years. Tropical dry deciduous forests burned more frequently and had the largest number of fires in any given year as well as the single largest fire (9900 ha). Seventy percent, 56%, and 30% of the tropical moist deciduous forests, tropical dry thorn forests, and tropical dry deciduous forests, respectively have not burned during the 7-year period of study. The model of fire-return interval as a function of distance from park boundary explained 63% of the spatial variation of fire-return interval in the landscape. Forest fires had significant impacts on species diversity and regeneration in the tropical dry deciduous forests. Species diversity declined by 50% and 60% in the moderate and high frequency classes, respectively compared to the low fire frequency class. Sapling density declined by ca. 30% in both moderate and high frequency classes compared to low frequency class. In tropical moist deciduous ecosystems, there were substantial declines in species diversity, tree density, seedling and sapling densities in burned forests compared to the unburned forests. In contrast forest fires in tropical dry thorn forests had a marginal positive effect on ecosystem diversity, structure, and regeneration.