基于非线性最小二乘法指数平滑系数估计

运用指数平滑预测模型进行时序数据的预测分析时,关于指数平滑系数α最优估计是研究者们长期以来需要解决的关键性问题。本文提出基于非线性最小二乘法的指数平滑系数α选取方法,其核心思想在于根据预测值与实测值之间的拟合误差平方和最小值,利用非线性最小二乘法中具有松弛性质的搜索算法,通过高斯-牛顿迭代程序估计最优指数平滑系数α,使得指数平滑预测模型在预测过程中达到更为精准的预测精度。     

Update on molecular techniques for diagnostic testing of infectious disease.

The era of diagnostic molecular biology has arrived for small animal clinicians, and it is a near certainty that assays such as the PCR and RT-PCR will become more widely available for a wider array of infectious agents. Already there is an extensive list of infectious diseases of dogs and cats that have been investigated with molecular tools. A partial list is included in box 1. An understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of the molecular techniques and some of the questions these techniques can answer for clinicians can serve practitioners well in their approach to the diagnosis of infectious diseases in dogs and cats. It is likely that additional applications of these tools to small animal medicine will become apparent as investigators use and refine them for their research purposes, or as new uses emerge from human medical applications. Clinicians also are likely to reap the benefits of this knowledge. Because samples often are acquired easily from clinical patients in most practice settings, access to these tools puts all clinicians in the group of discoverers of new, or variations of, infectious diseases and their clinical manifestations.     

Results of diagnostic ophthalmic testing in healthy guinea pigs

OBJECTIVE-To report values for tear production, central corneal touch threshold (CTT), and intraocular pressure (IOP) in healthy guinea pigs and determine results of aerobic bacterial culture and cytologic examination of conjunctival swab specimens. DESIGN-Cross-sectional study. ANIMALS-31 Healthy guinea pigs (62 eyes) of various ages and breeds. PROCEDURES-Tear production was measured by the phenol red thread tear test (PRT) and Schirmer tear test (STT) before and after topical anesthetic application, CTT was measured with an esthesiometer, and IOP was measured by applanation tonometry. RESULTS-Combining data from all eyes, mean +/- SD PRT values before and after topical anesthetic administration were 21.26 +/- 4.19 mm/15 s and 22.47 +/- 3.31 mm/15 s, respectively, and mean IOP was 18.27 +/- 4.55 mm Hg. Median STT values before and after topical anesthetic administration were 3 mm/min (range, 0 to 12 mm/min) and 4 mm/min (range, 0 to 11 mm/min), respectively, and median CTT was 2.0 cm (range, 0.5 to 3.0 cm). Values did not differ between eyes for any test, but significant differences were identified for PRT values between males and females and between values obtained before and after topical anesthetic administration. Common bacterial isolates included Corynebacterium spp, Streptococcus spp, and Staphylococcus spp. Cytologic examination of conjunctival swab specimens revealed mainly basal epithelial cells; lymphocytes were common. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE-Results provided information on values for PRT, STT, CTT, and IOP in healthy guinea pigs and on expected findings for aerobic bacterial culture and cytologic examination of conjunctival swab specimens.     

液态发酵对饲料原料体外消化率的影响

试验研究利用植物乳杆菌对豆粕、玉米、玉米淀粉等原料及混合物进行了液态发酵,研究发酵对原料中CP的含量变化以及体外消化率的影响,研究表明,玉米含量高的原料经发酵后CP和DM体外消化率得到明显提高。     

Effect of multiple sampling on diagnostic sensitivity.

Overall diagnostic sensitivity is the probability that a diagnostic procedure will detect an agent if the tested animal is indeed infected. The overall or effective sensitivity is a function of both the probability that the assay will detect the agent if it is present in the sample tested and the probability that the agent will be present in the sample tested if the animal is infected with the agent. Thus, even with a highly sensitive assay, the probability of detecting an infected animal may be low or nil if the sampling procedure failed to capture the agent in samples tested by the assay. In this article, it is demonstrated how increased frequency of testing, such as testing multiple subsamples, can have a profound effect on increasing the overall sensitivity of a diagnostic procedure.     

Comparative study of diagnostic testing for feline leukemia virus infection.

Results of commercially available diagnostic test kits and commercial laboratory test results were compared for ability to detect FeLV antigen. Results of the immunofluorescent antibody (IFA) test were compared with test kit ELISA results and with results of a system in which samples were applied to an absorbent material, dried, sent to a laboratory, eluted, and assayed by a plate ELISA. Test kits were generally highly sensitive and specific, compared with the IFA test performed at a commercial laboratory. Feline heterophile antibody, specific for mouse immunoglobulin, was detected in approximately 0.14 to 0.57% of the cat population. Test kits B, E, and D contain reagents that correct for antimouse antibodies. During 1989 and 1990, 2,229 feline serum samples were tested for FeLV antigen (gsa p27); positive ELISA results were obtained for 204 (9%) of the samples. Results for 32 (1.4%) samples were interpreted as equivocal (color development slightly exceeded that of the negative control, but was much less than that of the positive control). Collectively, the data indicate that when testing serum or saliva, a negative test result may be a good predictor that a cat is not infected. In populations of cats in which FeLV prevalence is low, a positive test result may not be reliable and thus, a confirmatory test should be performed.     

Effect of vaccination on parvovirus antigen testing in kittens

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency and duration of feline panleukopenia virus (FPV) vaccine-induced interference with fecal parvovirus diagnostic testing in cats. DESIGN: Prospective controlled study. ANIMALS: Sixty-four 8- to 10-week-old specific-pathogen-free kittens. PROCEDURES: Kittens were inoculated once with 1 of 8 commercial multivalent vaccines containing modified-live virus (MLV) or inactivated FPV by the SC or intranasal routes. Feces were tested for parvovirus antigen immediately prior to vaccination, then daily for 14 days with 3 tests designed for detection of canine parvovirus. Serum anti-FPV antibody titers were determined by use of hemagglutination inhibition prior to vaccination and 14 days later. RESULTS: All fecal parvovirus test results were negative prior to vaccination. After vaccination, 1 kitten had positive test results with test 1, 4 kittens had positive results with test 2, and 13 kittens had positive results with test 3. Only 1 kitten had positive results with all 3 tests, and only 2 of those tests were subjectively considered to have strongly positive results. At 14 days after vaccination, 31% of kittens receiving inactivated vaccines had protective FPV titers, whereas 85% of kittens receiving MLV vaccines had protective titers. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Animal shelter veterinarians should select fecal tests for parvovirus detection that have high sensitivity for FPV and low frequency of vaccine-related test interference. Positive parvovirus test results should be interpreted in light of clinical signs, vaccination history, and results of confirmatory testing. Despite the possibility of test interference, the benefit provided by universal MLV FPV vaccination of cats in high-risk environments such as shelters outweighs the impact on diagnostic test accuracy.     

pH值对盐酸小檗碱烷基化衍生物表观油水分配系数的影响

目的：探讨pH值和结构修饰对盐酸小檗碱及其烷基化衍生物表观油水分配系数（P）的影响。方法：建立紫外分光光度法测定盐酸小檗碱及其烷基化衍生物含量的检测方法,并采用摇瓶法测定盐酸小檗碱及其烷基化衍生物在正辛醇-缓冲液体系中的表观油水分配系数。结果：pH值在2.0-8.0时,小檗碱lgP值均小于0,且其在水中的lgP值最小。小檗碱衍生物lgP值均大于0,但变化不大;随着修饰碳链的延伸,其油水分配系数逐渐增大,8-十六烷基小檗碱lgP值在不同pH值条件下均大于1,推测其在胃肠道的吸收优于小檗碱。结论：37℃下,pH值对盐酸小檗及其碱衍生物的表观油水分配系数影响不大,但与其结构改造中引入基团的极性呈正相关。     

Consensus recommendations on diagnostic testing for the detection of paratuberculosis in cattle in the United States

The report provided here contains a simplified set of diagnostic testing recommendations. These recommendations were developed on the basis of research funded by the USDA-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service-Veterinary Services through a cooperative agreement. The report is intended to provide simple, practical, cost-effective consensus testing recommendations for cattle herds that are not enrolled in the US Test-Negative Program. The information has been reviewed by paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) experts at the USDA and academic centers as well as stakeholders in various segments of the cattle industry. The recommendations were accepted by the National Johne's Working Group and Johne's Disease Committee of the US Animal Health Association during their annual meetings in October 2006. The report is intended to aid veterinarians who work with cattle producers in the United States. The recommendations are based on information available up to October 2006. There is a paucity of large-scale, high-quality studies of multiple tests conducted on samples obtained from the same cattle. It is understood that there may be special circumstances that require deviation from these recommendations. Furthermore, as new information becomes available and assays are improved and their accuracy is critically evaluated, changes to these recommendations may be necessary.     

The quality assurance of proficiency testing programs for animal disease diagnostic laboratories.

Laboratory data credibility has 3 major components: 1) valid methods, 2) proficiency testing (PT) to verify that the analyst can conduct the method and to compare results of other laboratories using the same method, and 3) third-party accreditation to verify that the laboratory is competent to conduct testing and that the method validation has been done within the environment and requirements of an effective quality-management system. Participation in external PT programs by a laboratory is strongly recommended in International Organization for Standardization/International Electrotechnical Commission International Standard 17025. Most laboratory accreditation bodies using this standard require that laboratories participate in such programs to be accredited. Internal PT is also recommended for each analyst. Benchmarking, or comparison between laboratories using PT or reference materials, is also recommended as part of the validation and evaluation of test methods. These requirements emphasize the need for proficiency test providers to demonstrate their competence. Requirements for competence are documented in national and international standards and guidelines, and accreditation is available for providers. This article discusses the activities and the components that are necessary and recommended for PT projects and programs for animal disease diagnostic testing. These are based on the requirements of the national and international standards, which address this subject, and on the experience of the author. The accreditation of external PT programs is also discussed. Organizations that accredit PT providers or that provide PT programs are listed. Existing references, guidelines, and standards that are relevant to PT in veterinary diagnostic laboratories are discussed.     

Survey of antimicrobial susceptibility testing practices of veterinary diagnostic laboratories in the United States

OBJECTIVE: To describe antimicrobial susceptibility testing practices of veterinary diagnostic laboratories in the United States and evaluate the feasibility of collating this information for the purpose of monitoring antimicrobial resistance in bacterial isolates from animals. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PROCEDURES: A questionnaire was mailed to veterinary diagnostic laboratories throughout the United States to identify those laboratories that conduct susceptibility testing. Nonrespondent laboratories were followed up through telephone contact and additional mailings. Data were gathered regarding methods of susceptibility testing, standardization of methods, data management, and types of isolates tested. RESULTS: Eighty-six of 113 (76%) laboratories responded to the survey, and 64 of the 86 (74%) routinely performed susceptibility testing on bacterial isolates from animals. Thirty-four of the 36 (94%) laboratories accredited by the American Association of Veterinary Laboratory Diagnosticians responded to the survey. Laboratories reported testing > 160,000 bacterial isolates/y. Fifty-one (88%) laboratories reported using the Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion test to evaluate antimicrobial susceptibility; this accounted for 65% of the isolates tested. Most (87%) laboratories used the NCCLS (National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards) documents for test interpretation. Seventy-five percent of the laboratories performed susceptibility testing on bacterial isolates only when they were potential pathogens. CONCLUSIONS: The veterinary diagnostic laboratories represent a comprehensive source of data that is not easily accessible in the United States. Variability in testing methods and data storage would present challenges for data aggregation, summary, and interpretation.     

Bayesian estimation of Tritrichomonas foetus diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity in range beef bulls

Accuracy of culture for diagnosis of Tritrichomonas foetus was investigated in 2832 naturally exposed range beef bulls from 124 herds. Preputial fluid samples were inoculated into the culture medium, incubated at 37 degrees C, and daily examined. Diagnostic test was evaluated using Bayesian techniques to estimate sensitivity and specificity without a gold standard. Median posterior test sensitivity was 72.04% (95% probability interval: 58.07-86.38%) and specificity was 95.37% (95% probability interval: 94.07-96.65%). Low diagnostic test accuracy may have resulted from host and/or diagnostic test procedure related factors. Under natural range conditions, more accurate methods for T. foetus diagnostic and repeated preputial samplings of bulls may be necessary on trichomonosis control programs.