Nutrient flows and land use change in a rural catchment: a modelling approach

Due largely to unprecedented land-use changes in the Porijõgi River catchment (southern Estonia) losses of nutrients and organic matter have decreased significantly. During the period 1987–1997 abandoned lands increased from 1.7 to 10.5% and arable lands decreased from 41.8 to 23.9%. At the same time, the runoff of total-N, total-P, SO₄ and organic matter (after BOD₅) decreased from 25.9 to 5.1, 0.32 to 0.13, 78 to 48, and 7.4 to 3.5 kg ha^–1 yr^–1, respectively. The most significant decreases occurred in agricultural subcatchments while the changes were insignificant in the forested upper course catchment. A simple empirical model which incorporates land-use pattern, fertilization intensity, soil parameters and water discharge accurately described the variations of total-N and total-P runoff in both the whole catchment and its agricultural subcatchments (R ² varies from 0.95–0.99 for N to 0.49–0.93 for P). In small agricultural subcatchments the rate of fertilization is found the most important factor for nitrogen runoff, whereas in larger mosaic watersheds land use pattern plays the main role. Seven alternative scenarios compiled on the base of the empirical model allow to forecast potential nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment. This information can be used in further landscape and regional planning of the whole region.     

An agent-based approach to modeling impacts of agricultural policy on land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services

We present extensions to the agent-based agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS) model that make it possible to simulate the consequences of agricultural policy reform on farmers?? land use decisions and concomitant impacts on landscape mosaic, biodiversity and ecosystem services in a real agricultural region. An observed population of farms is modelled as a multi-agent system where individual farm-agent behaviour and their interactions??principally competition for land??are defined through an optimization framework with land use and landscape impacts resulting as emergent properties of the system. The model is calibrated to real data on the farms and the landscape to be studied. We illustrate the utility of the model by evaluating the potential impacts of three alternative frameworks for the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on landscape values in two marginal agricultural regions. Mosaic value was found to be sensitive to the choice of policy scheme in one of the landscapes, whereas significant trade-offs were shown to occur in terms of species richness by habitat and species composition at the landscape scale in both regions. The relationship between food production and other ecosystem services was found to be multifaceted. Thus illustrating the difficulty of achieving landscape goals in a particular region with simple or general land management rules (such as the current rules attached to CAPs direct payments). Given the scarcity of funding for conservation, the level and conditions for allocating direct payments are, potentially, of great importance for preserving landscape values in marginal agricultural regions (subject to levels of other support).     

Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape

While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders’ solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.     

Uncertainty analysis as a tool for refining land dynamics modelling on changing landscapes: a case study in a Spanish Natural Park

In this study we developed a methodology aimed at improving the assessment of inter-annual land cover dynamics from hard classified remotely sensed data in heterogeneous and resilient landscapes. The methodology is implemented for the Spanish Natural Park of Sierra de Ancares, where human interference during the last century has resulted in the destruction and fragmentation of the original land cover. We ran supervised classifications, with a maximum likelihood algorithm (Maxlike), on a temporal series of Landsat images (1991–2005), followed by an uncertainty assessment using fuzzy classifications and confusion indices (CIs). This allowed us to show how much (and where) of the resulting maps contained a substantial amount of error, distinguishing data that might be useful to measure land change from data that are not particularly useful when applying a post-classification comparison methodology. In this way, we can detect true changes not skewed by the effects of uncertainty. Even if patterns of change were always coherent amongst years, they were more realistic after reducing uncertainty, in spite of a substantial decrease in the number of available pixels (i.e. unmasked by the method). We then computed land cover dynamics by means of a model specifically designed to determine the frequency of disturbances (mainly fire events) and the vegetation recovery time during the study period. Model outputs showed correlated landscape patterns at a broad scale and provided useful results to explore land cover change from pattern to process.     

Governing the landscape: potential and challenges of integrated approaches to landscape sustainability in Indonesia

Landscape Ecology - In recent years, landscape sustainability, the maintenance and improvement of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in landscapes, has become a core objective...     

Considering landscape connectivity and gene flow in the Anthropocene using complementary landscape genetics and habitat modelling approaches

Landscape Ecology - A comprehensive understanding of how rapidly changing environments affect species gene flow is critical for mitigating future biodiversity losses. While recent methodological...     

Machine learning in landscape ecological analysis: a review of recent approaches

Landscape Ecology - Artificial Intelligence (AI) has rapidly developed over the past several decades. Several related AI approaches, such as Machine Learning (ML), have been applied to research on...     

Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model

Land use change is the result of interactions between processes operating at different scales. Simulation models at regional to global scales are often incapable of including locally determined processes of land use change. This paper introduces a modeling approach that integrates demand-driven changes in land area with locally determined conversion processes. The model is illustrated with an application for European land use. Interactions between changing demands for agricultural land and vegetation processes leading to the re-growth of (semi-) natural vegetation on abandoned farmland are explicitly addressed. Succession of natural vegetation is simulated based on the spatial variation in biophysical and management related conditions, while the dynamics of the agricultural area are determined by a global multi-sector model. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of European land use and landscapes. The model approach is similarly suitable for other regions and processes where large scale processes interact with local dynamics.     

Influence of land use on water quality in a tropical landscape: a multi-scale analysis

There is a pressing need to understand the consequences of human activities, such as land transformations, on watershed ecosystem services. This is a challenging task because different indicators of water quality and yield are expected to vary in their responsiveness to large versus local-scale heterogeneity in land use and land cover (LUC). Here we rely on water quality data collected between 1977 and 2000 from dozens of gauge stations in Puerto Rico together with precipitation data and land cover maps to (1) quantify impacts of spatial heterogeneity in LUC on several water quality indicators; (2) determine the spatial scale at which this heterogeneity influences water quality; and (3) examine how antecedent precipitation modulates these impacts. Our models explained 30–58% of observed variance in water quality metrics. Temporal variation in antecedent precipitation and changes in LUC between measurements periods rather than spatial variation in LUC accounted for the majority of variation in water quality. Urbanization and pasture development generally degraded water quality while agriculture and secondary forest re-growth had mixed impacts. The spatial scale over which LUC influenced water quality differed across indicators. Turbidity and dissolved oxygen (DO) responded to LUC in large-scale watersheds, in-stream nitrogen concentrations to LUC in riparian buffers of large watersheds, and fecal matter content and in-stream phosphorus concentration to LUC at the sub-watershed scale. Stream discharge modulated impacts of LUC on water quality for most of the metrics. Our findings highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial scales for understanding the impacts of human activities on watershed ecosystem services.     

河北省新型城镇化与土地生态安全耦合协调分析

以河北省为研究区域,以新型城镇化与土地生态安全耦合协调度为研究对象,运用耦合协调发展模型和空间自相关等分析方法测算了2005-2015年间河北省新型城镇化与土地生态安全耦合协调度,探究其空间集聚特征。研究结果表明：(1)河北各城市新型城镇化与土地生态安全耦合协调水平不存在耦合失调的情况,区域间耦合协调发展水平存在较大差异,大部分主要处于初级协调发展类型,仅有唐山、石家庄在2015年达到了良好协调发展类型。河北省新型城镇化与土地生态安全耦合协调度存在显著的空间正相关。(2)空间集聚类型上,绝大多数城市属于不显著类型区,高-高类型区、低-低类型区涉及的城市数量少。2005年仅有廊坊市处于高-高类型区、张家口市处于低-低类型区;2010年无城市处于高-高类型区,承德市、邢台市处于低-低类型区;2015年仅有秦皇岛市处于高-高类型区、无城市处于低-低类型区。研究可为其他地区推进城市化进程与提高土地生态安全水平,促进二者协调发展提供一定理论依据。     

Additive and synergistic effects of land cover,land use and climate on insect biodiversity

Context

We address the issue of adapting landscapes for improved insect biodiversity conservation in a changing climate by assessing the importance of additive (main) and synergistic (interaction) effects of land cover and land use with climate.

Objectives

We test the hypotheses that ant richness (species and genus), abundance and diversity would vary according to land cover and land use intensity but that these effects would vary according to climate.

Methods

We used a 1000 m elevation gradient in eastern Australia (as a proxy for a climate gradient) and sampled ant biodiversity along this gradient from sites with variable land cover and land use.

Results

Main effects revealed: higher ant richness (species and genus) and diversity with greater native woody plant canopy cover; and lower species richness with higher cultivation and grazing intensity, bare ground and exotic plant groundcover. Interaction effects revealed: both the positive effects of native plant canopy cover on ant species richness and abundance, and the negative effects of exotic plant groundcover on species richness were greatest at sites with warmer and drier climates.

Conclusions

Impacts of climate change on insect biodiversity may be mitigated to some degree through landscape adaptation by increasing woody native vegetation cover and by reducing land use intensity, the cover of exotic vegetation and of bare ground. Evidence of synergistic effects suggests that landscape adaptation may be most effective in areas which are currently warmer and drier, or are projected to become so as a result of climate change.

     

A tool for testing integrated pest management strategies on a tritrophic system involving pollen beetle, its parasitoid and oilseed rape at the landscape scale

The intensification of agriculture has led to a loss of biodiversity and subsequently to a decrease in ecosystem services, including regulation of pests by natural enemies. Biological regulation of pests is a complex process affected by both landscape configuration and agricultural practices. Although modeling tools are needed to design innovative integrated pest management strategies that consider tritrophic interactions at the landscape scale, landscape models that consider agricultural practices as levers to enhance biological regulation are lacking. To begin filling this gap, we developed a grid-based lattice model called Mosaic-Pest that simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of Meligethes aeneus, a major pest of oilseed rape, and its parasitoid, Tersilochus heterocerus through a landscape that changes through time according to agricultural practices. The following agricultural practices were assumed to influence the tritrophic system and were included in the model: crop allocation in time and space, ploughing, and trap crop planting. To test the effect of agricultural practices on biological regulation across landscape configurations, we used a complete factorial design with the variables described below and ran long-term simulations using Mosaic-Pest. The model showed that crop rotation and the use of trap crop greatly affected pollen beetle densities and parasitism rates while ploughing had only a small effect. The use of Mosaic-Pest as a tool to select the combination of agricultural practices that best limit the pest population is discussed.     

Correction to: Individual based modelling of fish migration in a 2-D river system: model description and case study

Landscape Ecology - In the original publication of the article, the third author name has been misspelt. The correct name is given in this Correction. The original version of this article was revised.     

A hierarchical analysis of the relationship between urban impervious surfaces and land surface temperatures: spatial scale dependence,temporal variations,and bioclimatic modulation

Context

Understanding how urban impervious surfaces (UIS) affect land surface temperatures (LST) on different scales in space and time is important for urban ecology and sustainability.

Objectives

We examined how spatial scales, seasonal and diurnal variations, and bioclimatic settings affected the UIS–LST relationship in mainland China.

Methods

We took a hierarchical approach explicitly considering three scales: the ecoregion, urban cluster, and urban core. The UIS–LST relationship was quantified with Pearson correlation using multiple remote sensing datasets.

Results

In general, UIS and LST were positively correlated in summer daytime/nighttime and winter nighttime, but negatively in winter daytime. The strength of correlation increased from broad to fine scales. The mean R² of winter nights at the urban core scale (0.262) was 4.03 times as high as that at the ecoregion scale (0.065). The relationship showed large seasonal and diurnal variations: generally stronger in summer than in winter and stronger in nighttime than in daytime. At the urban core scale, the mean R² of summer daytime (0.208) was 3.25 times as high as that of winter daytime (0.064), and the mean R² of winter nighttime (0.262) was 4.10 times as high as that of winter daytime (0.064). Vegetation and climate substantially modified the relationship during summer daytime on the ecoregion scale.

Conclusions

Our study provides new evidence that the UIS–LST relationship varies with spatial scales, diurnal/seasonal cycles, and bioclimatic context, with new insight into the cross-scale properties of the relationship. These findings have implications for mitigating urban heat island effects across scales in China and beyond.

     

Fenoxycarb,a selective insecticide for inclusion in integrated pest management systems for pear in the UK

The effects of fenoxycarb, an insect growth regulator, on predatory anthocorids, were tested in comparison with the broad-spectrum insecticide deltamethrin, in pear orchard trials. The results confirmed the effectiveness of fenoxycarb against pear sucker, Cacop- sylla pyricola and revealed no damaging effects on larval or adult anthocorids (mainly Anthocoris nemoralis). Deltamethrin reduced numbers of both C. pyricola and anthocorids, allowing a resurgence of C. pyricola later in the season. Fenoxycarb is shown to be suitable for use in integrated pest management programmes in pear.     

Spatial patterns of a subtropical,coastal urban forest: Implications for land tenure,hurricanes, and invasives

Spatial patterns of tree structure and composition were studied to assess the effects of land tenure, management regimes, and the environment on a coastal, subtropical urban forest. A total of 229 plots in remnant natural areas, private residential, public non-residential, and private non-residential land tenures were analyzed in a 1273 km² study area encompassing the urbanized portion of Miami-Dade County, USA. Statistical mixed models of structure, composition, location, and land tenure data were used to analyze spatial patterns across the study area. A total of 1200 trees were measured of which 593 trees (49%) were located in residential areas, 67 (6%) in public non-residential areas, 135 trees (11%) in private non-residential areas, and 405 (34%) in remnant, natural areas. A total of 107 different tree species belonging to 90 genera were sampled. Basal area in residential land tenures increased towards the coast while private residential land tenures and natural areas had higher species diversity than non-residential areas. Tree height, crown light exposure, and crown area might indicate the effects of past hurricane impacts on urban forest structure. Land tenure, soil types, and urban morphology influenced composition and structure. Broadleaf evergreen trees are the most common growth form, followed by broadleaf deciduous, palms, and conifers. Exotic tree species originated mainly from Asia and 15% of all trees measured were considered exotic-highly invasive species. We discuss the use of these results as an ecological basis for management and resilience towards hurricane damage and identifying occurrence of invasive, exotic trees.     

Simulating private land ownership fragmentation in the Missouri Ozarks, USA

Increasing land ownership fragmentation in the United States is causing concerns with respect to its ecological implications for forested landscapes. This is especially relevant given that human influence is one of the most significant driving forces affecting the forest landscape. A method for generating realistic land ownership maps is needed to evaluate the effects of ownership fragmentation on forest landscapes in combination with other natural processes captured in forest process models. Ownership patterns from human activities usually generate landscape boundary shapes different from those arising from natural processes. Spatial characteristics among ownership types – e.g., private, public ownership – may also differ. To address these issues, we developed the Fragmented Land Ownership Spatial Simulator (FLOSS) to generate ownership patterns that reflect the Public Land Survey System (PLSS) shapes and various patch size distributions among different types of ownership (e.g., private, public). To evaluate FLOSS performance, we compared the simulated patterns with various ownership fragmentation levels to the actual ownership patterns in the Missouri Ozarks by using selected landscape indices. FLOSS generated landscapes with spatial characteristics similar to actual landscapes, suggesting that it can simulate different levels of ownership fragmentation. This will allow FLOSS to serve as a feasible tool for evaluating forest management applications by spatially allocating various management scenarios in a realistic way. The potentials and limitations of FLOSS application are discussed.     

Integrating ecosystem services in landscape planning: requirements,approaches, and impacts

Despite growing knowledge of ecosystem services (ES), and heightened awareness of their political and socio-economic relevance, mainstreaming and implementing ES in landscape planning and decision-making are still in their infancy. The objective of this special issue, therefore, is to explore requirements for, approaches to, and potential impacts of, integrating ES in landscape planning and management. The issue includes three key research themes: (i) Requirements and interests of planners and decision-makers for integrating ES in different application contexts, (ii) Approaches to applying ES in (participatory) planning, and (iii) Potential impacts of integrating ES in policy and decision-making. These themes are addressed by 12 papers that refer to case studies in Africa, Australia, and Europe. Four lessons are highlighted: (i) Information on ES is considered useful by many practitioners, but the type, production and communication of ES information need to be adapted to the specific context of a planning case; (ii) A broad range of approaches are available for integrating the ES concept in (participatory) planning with different and complementary contributions to decision-support; (iii) Effectively integrating ES in planning requires careful scoping of the context, objectives and capacities; (iv) Integrating ES in planning can effectively support the co-production of relevant knowledge and the collaboration of diverse actors. A new research field of ‘Planning-for-ES Science’ is emerging which focuses on, among other issues, the critical evaluation of real-world case studies of applying the ES concept in different fields of practice.