基于MS-AR模型的黑龙江省生猪价格周期波动研究

为了研究黑龙江省生猪价格近年来涨跌变化的特点和规律,预测生猪波动周期和价格走势,降低生猪价格大幅波动引起的市场风险,笔者采用MS-AR模型对黑龙江省生猪价格周期波动特征进行了深入研究。结果表明:生猪价格时间序列中存在着"下跌区制""稳定上涨区制"和"快速上涨区制"三种状态;生猪价格在不同区制上具有不同的持续性和波动性,而且生猪价格在不同区制上的概率以及不同区制之间的转移概率存在着显著的差异,因此黑龙江省生猪价格调控政策应该依据生猪价格周期波动的区制特征来制定。     

春节前猪价有可能震荡回升

正生猪价格自2014年9月第2周起持续9周小幅下跌后,受养殖户惜售心理影响,11月第2周开始震荡回升。但是由于终端猪肉消费需求依旧不旺,猪肉价格依旧小幅下跌。仔猪、玉米和猪饲料价格继续下跌,生猪养殖成本下降,生猪养殖整体仍处于轻度亏损状态,但显著好转。养殖亏损状态显著改善猪肉价格自9月第3周累计下跌3.5%。据农业部监测,自9月第3周起猪肉价格总体呈跌势,累计跌3.5%,11月第4周价格为23.11元/千克,环比跌0.3%,同     

我国猪肉价格波动及其影响因素分析——基于Markov区制转换VAR模型的实证检验

本文运用MSIHI(3)-VAR(2)模型,选取2009年2月-2015年10月的月度数据,从非线性角度实证研究了影响我国猪肉价格波动的因素。实证结果表明:第一,在供给方面,玉米价格和仔猪价格的上涨都会引起猪肉价格上涨,且均在猪肉市场高涨时期效果更显著,相反,玉米价格和仔猪价格的下跌都会引起猪肉价格下跌,且均在猪肉低迷时期反应更显著。在需求方面,鸡肉价格的波动会引起猪肉价格的同向波动,但存在一定的滞后性。第二,生猪供给增加,猪肉价格在高涨时期下降幅度小,而在低迷和平稳时期下降幅度大,相反,生猪供给减少,猪肉价格在高涨时期上涨幅度大,而在低迷和平稳时期上涨幅度小。最后,本文根据实证结论为政府部门提出稳定猪肉市场的相关政策建议。     

吉林省上半年畜产品市场分析

今年上半年,吉林省生猪及猪肉价格出现了较大波动,特别是今年春节以后,生猪及猪肉价格呈大幅下跌态势,部分地区的猪价跌至几年来的最低点,自6月下旬以来猪肉市场价格出现了回升态势。牛肉市场价格比较平稳,产销两旺。禽类产品价格也处在较低价位运行,销量回升。主要有以下几个特点。     

我国生猪价格的周期性波动:实证分析与政策思考

本文采用H-P滤波方法分解出2000年1月至2014年9月间生猪价格、猪肉价格、仔猪价格的趋势和周期,并结合猪粮比分析猪价周期波动特征。研究发现:生猪价格、猪肉价格、仔猪价格波动周期大多数超过40个月,一般下跌持续时间较长;猪粮比对识别猪价周期具有一定指向作用。动物疫病、金融危机等外部冲击引发猪价大幅周期波动,防止猪价过度下跌预案的实施在短期起一定效果。本文基于实证分析,并就如何借力"土地新政"、"金融改革"等新国策,对构建平抑猪价大幅周期波动的长效机制进行了政策思考。     

猪价波动起伏,后期或将维稳

正12018年7月下旬至2018年9月中旬养猪行情概述2018年7月下旬至2018年9月中旬养猪行情概述由图1可以看出,统计时段内,2017年仔猪市场受生猪市场价格的影响,良好的价格走势给了养殖企业很大的鼓励,2018年补栏增多,仔猪市场受生猪市场价格的影响,处于低迷状态,整体呈小幅波动走势,仔猪价格整体幅度低于去年同期水平。2018年7月28日-9月14日,全国仔猪平均价格为25.86元/kg,比去年同期(37.23元/kg)下跌30.54%。如图2所示,统计区间内,2017年生猪价格总体较为平稳,小幅波动。     

猪价季节性上涨,整体趋向偏好

正1 2018年6月下旬至2018年8月中旬养猪行情概述2018年6月下旬至2018年8月中旬养猪行情概述由图1可以看出,统计时段内2017年仔猪市场受生猪市场价格的影响,良好的价格走势给了养殖企业很大的鼓励;2018年补栏增多,仔猪市场受生猪市场价格的影响,处于低迷状态,整体呈小幅波动走势,仔猪价格整体幅度低于去年同期水平。2018年6月30日-8月17日,全国仔猪平均价格为25.49元/kg,比去年同期(38.08元/kg)下跌33.06%。如图2所示,统计区间内,2017年生猪价格呈现小幅波动走势;2018年生猪价格整体呈上涨趋势,2018年生猪价格的整体幅度低于去年同期水平。     

我国生猪期货对猪肉价格短期波动的影响研究

自2021年1月8日我国生猪期货上市以来,生猪期货的价格发现功能被业内高度关注,生猪期货价格对猪肉现货价格的指导与价格平抑作用效果备受关注。基于猪肉价格的主要影响因素,本文选择了猪的饲料价格、屠宰加工成本、牛肉价格(猪肉替代品)、生猪期货价格和猪肉价格作为变量,创建VAR模型,使用了2021年4月至2022年4月的周平均数据,采用协整检验、Granger检验和脉冲分析等方法研究生猪期货对我国猪肉价格短期波动的规律。结果显示,饲料价格的波动和生猪期货价格的波动是引起猪肉价格短期波动的主要因素。由此提出维持饲料价格稳定、完善生猪期货市场制度、引导生猪养殖企业运用生猪期货套期保值进行风险避险等政策建议。     

生猪生产波动原因探讨

一、 前言 　　自1985年开始,生猪生产取消了计划体制下的派购政策,纳入自由交易的市场经济轨道,十几年中养猪业在得到迅猛发展的同时,伴随的猪价波动现象,长期困扰着业内人士,由于猪肉为我国人民主要的动物性食品,占人们消费动物食品的70％,其价格变化一定程度上影响着人民群众的生活质量,同时每次价格波动都给养殖者造成巨大的经济损失。因此,这一现象成为政府、养殖者和人民群众共同关注的焦点。研究猪价波动,探讨波动起因和波动规律,对于稳定猪肉市场、指导养猪生产具有深远的现实意义。 　　二、 猪肉价格变动与生猪生产的相关性及规律 　　1、 猪肉价格变动特点 　　（1） 猪肉价格变动呈波浪型。 　　（2） 猪肉价格在我国传统节日如“国庆节”、“中秋节”、“春节”期间偏高。 　　（3） 猪肉价格涨中有跌、跌中有涨。 　　2、 养猪户对猪肉价格变动的反应 　　猪肉价格时起时落,这是动态的经济活动和国内外市场调节的必然结果。猪肉价格变动拉动生产者作出反应。猪肉价格升高,生猪售价升高,猪粮比价加大,养猪利润增加,生产者养猪积极性增加,及时补栏增多,带动仔猪价格上涨,促使母猪饲养量增加;猪肉价格降低,生猪售价降低,猪粮比价减小,养猪利润减小或亏损,生产者养猪积极性下降,不愿补栏,造成仔猪价格下跌,导致母猪饲养量下降。     

卷首语

眼下,相对而言吃猪肉比吃蔬菜还要"实惠",这是当前全国许多地区老百姓对猪肉价格下跌最直观的反应。2012年生猪价格并未像很多人年初预测的那样,随着5月的到来而进入上升通道,统计监测的数据显示,生猪和猪肉价格仍在"探底"。一些地区养殖户开始出售能繁母猪,很可能为后市生猪价格波动又埋下伏笔。想了解目前,以及之后我国     

Effect of subsidy regimes on economic values of functional traits in beef cattle breeding

We investigated the impact of five monetary subsidy regimes on economic values of traits in a cow–calf pasture production system with surplus calves fed for slaughter. The following regimes were analysed: (1) maximum prices for slaughter animals actually received in the Czech Republic during 2004, with no subsidies of any kind; (2) prices as in (1), with subsidies awarded per hectare of permanent grassland and per calf born; (3) prices as in (1), with subsidies awarded per hectare of agricultural land, per hectare of pasture and meadow, per beef cow in a forage system and per livestock unit; (4) prices as in (1), with subsidies awarded per hectare of agricultural land; (5) no subsidies, but prices received for slaughter animals that covered production costs and resulted in 1% profitability. The modelled farm showed negative profit under real price conditions with no subsidies (regime 1), which led to an underestimation of economic values for functional traits. The same results were obtained in regimes in which subsidies did not depend on the number of animals (3) or on meat production from the enterprise (4). Economic values of production traits (growth and carcass traits) did not vary among subsidy regimes. To determine optimum economic values for functional traits in beef cattle, we advocate using the method applied in subsidy regime 5, no subsidies but prices for slaughter animals that cover production cost and a small profit.     

猪周期下规模猪场如何使用终端轮回杂交踏准节奏快速增减能繁母猪

近期猪价的大幅持续下跌,让养猪企业再次尝到了持续亏损的痛苦。文章介绍了生猪价格周期（猪周期）的特点和产生原因,并说明了顺猪周期进行养殖规模的调整对于减少商品猪养殖企业亏损的重要性。举例说明了顺猪周期进行能繁母猪数的减少和增加,可减少低猪价期的亏损。介绍了如何利用终端轮回杂交繁育体系在四年一轮回的猪周期踏准节奏进行商品猪的生产。还比较了杜长大三级繁育体系与终端轮回杂交繁育体系的区别,介绍了终端轮回杂交繁育体系的优势、对猪育种的影响和应用前景。     

我国肉鹅市场价格波动分析与预测

本文基于2014年1月—2020年2月中国肉鹅市场价格月度数据,运用季节性乘法Holt-Winters模型剖析了肉鹅价格的内在波动特征,并利用其波动趋势特点对未来一年的肉鹅市场价格做出短期预测。结果表明:我国肉鹅市场价格总体呈现曲折上升态势。从长期趋势来看,肉鹅市场价格在2017年出现明显拐点之后,开始大幅上升,并存在明显的季节性波动。未来一年预测值表明肉鹅价格整体会有一定程度下降,上升速度放缓,但随着疫情得到基本控制,我国肉鹅产业将逐步恢复至正常轨道,市场行情也将逐步回暖。     

补奖政策实施、肉羊价格波动对牧户收入的影响研究——基于内蒙古锡林郭勒盟111户牧户实地调查数据

本文对草原生态保护补助奖励政策实施、肉羊价格波动双重背景下的牧民收入进行了研究;讨论了肉羊价格波动对政策实施效果的影响机制。结果表明,创造最高收入是牧民生产决策的核心;肉羊价格的波动直接影响牧民生产行为,与牧民收入呈显著正相关;政策的激励作用存在阶段性,激励程度与肉羊价格的变化趋势相反;牧民的“惜卖”行为使其面临巨大的金融负债危机,后续发展容易进入盲区。因此,草原生态保护补助奖励政策的实施要与市场机制挂钩,才能实现显著的激励作用,促进牧民生产行为的转变,保证牧民收入稳定。     

定西市安定区肉牛产业发展现状及对策

近几年来,安定区肉牛饲养量逐年提高,价格逐年攀升。截至2019年底,肉牛饲养量达13.9万头,活牛平均价格32元/kg,牛肉平均价格72.1元/kg,但是安定区肉牛产业发展存在良种化程度低、规模小、产业发展后劲不足等问题。     

Optimal decisions in organic beef production from steers — Effects of criterion of optimality and price changes

Organic beef production from steers demands several decisions concerning grazing strategy, feeding level in the winter and aspects as slaughter weight and length of the finishing period. A model has been developed to optimise these strategies. The objective of this study was (1) to find optimal strategies for organic beef production from steers regarding grazing strategy, feeding level in winter, finishing and slaughter in organic beef production from steer concerning economic output per time unit using a multi-level hierarchic Markov process and (2) to analyse the stability of these results by sensitivity analysis. The results showed that in general the optimal strategy only changes slightly depending on the criterion (net returns per steer versus per time unit). An optimization per time unit in some cases favours a more intensive production based on high feeding level in winter and finishing of steers as well as earlier slaughtering compared to an optimization per steer. Finishing of steers seemed not to be an optimal strategy from an economic point of view and price changes in feed, beef and premiums did not favour finishing of steers. Beef prices as well as prices for ryegrass/white clover pasture and low feeding level seemed to be the most important factors that influence net return.     

ASAS Centennial Paper: Development of a corn-based beef industry

The development of a beef industry, heavily dependent on corn utilization, began to occur in the 1940s. Begun as a means to add value to the grain while improving consumer acceptance of beef, corn has become an integral part of beef production. Developments in the 21st century including unprecedented cattle prices, changes in beef demand, bovine spongiform encephalopathy, surge in energy costs, pricing differentiation of cattle prices based on quality, and industry consolidation have dramatically changed the price of corn and cost of beef production. The future of the beef industry will be dependent on our ability to continue producing high-quality beef for a global market through effective use of genetics, new technologies, and economic management strategies.     

Swine production.

The US swine industry is large and growing. The quantity of pork desired by consumers of US pork is growing at the rate of 1.5%/y. New production systems and new technology have enabled production per sow to grow at a rate of 4% annually in recent years. Consequently, the number of sows in the United States is declining. Because productivity growth is outpacing demand growth, the deflated price of hogs and pork is declining. Hog production and prices continue to exhibit strong seasonal and cyclic patterns. Pork production is usually lowest in the summer and highest in the fall. Production and prices tend to follow 4-year patterns. The US swine industry continues to evolve toward fewer and larger producers who rely on contracts for both hog production and marketing. In 2000, over half of the hogs marketed were from approximately 156 firms marketing more than 50,000 head annually. These producers finished 60% of their production in contract facilities. Over 90% of their marketings were under contract or were owned by a packer. These producers expressed a high level of satisfaction with hog production. Both they and their contract growers were satisfied with production contracts. These large producers were satisfied with their marketing contracts and planned to continue them in the future. The hog industry has changed a great deal in the last decade. There is little reason to believe this rapid rate of change will not continue. This swine industry is highly competitive and profit driven. Profit margins are too small to allow producers the luxury of ignoring new technology and innovative production systems. Consequently, hog production will continue its rapid evolution from traditional agriculture to typical industry.     

卵黄抗体的特性及其在仔猪腹泻防治上的应用

仔猪腹泻是困扰养猪业的一大难题,早期断奶仔猪腹泻尤其严重.过去这一问题的解决通常是依赖抗生素或高免血清,但由于安全性和价格等因素影响了它们在养猪业的应用.卵黄抗体作为一种价格低廉、安全高效的新型兽药,在防治仔猪腹泻上展现出良好的应用前景.本文介绍了IgY的形成、分子结构、特点、吸收和转运以及IgY在防治仔猪腹泻上的应用.     

奶业产业链纵向价格传导的时滞效应与政策启示

奶业产业链纵向价格传导受阻,导致奶牛养殖长期处于价值链的低增值环节,甚至出现“行业萎缩”现象.本文对上游奶牛养殖成本向下游乳品加工环节价格传导机制进行理论分析,并基于2008年1-12月份奶牛饲养成本和原料奶价格的月度数据,运用有限分布滞后模型测度价格传导的滞后效应.结果 表明:饲养成本向下游传导存在显著的滞后性,饲养...