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1.
We have made a biological model based on a Bayesian network for risk factors for infection with Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (Mycoplasma) in slaughter pigs; prevalence of infection is based on veterinary examinations. The model is a probabilistic/stochastic determination based on the inherent biological uncertainty of the severity of infection with Mycoplasma and the derived stochastic effects on productivity for the herd. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network are based on published studies and expert opinions. We used the model to calculate how the risk factors and our evidence about the herd influenced our view on the severity of Mycoplasma, and how our view changed when we had more veterinary evidence. We also show how one can use the model to deal with conflicting examinations.  相似文献   

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Sow and feeder pig productivity were measured on a random sample of 32 Prince Edward Island swine farms (each producing over 1000 market hogs per year). Productivity parameters could be arranged in a hierarchy, with the highest level on farrow-finish operations represented by pigs weaned per sow per year. The 17 farrow-finish farms in this study averaged 19.6 (+/- 2.2 SD) pigs weaned per sow per year. Large variation between farms was observed with a range from 16.2 to 24.9 pigs weaned per sow per year. The major opportunities for improving productivity, as compared to reviewed targets, lie in reducing the average weaning age, reducing preweaning mortality, and reducing non-productive sow days per parity. The 14 feeder operations were characterized by 0.58 +/- 0.07 kg average daily gain. Average daily gain was negatively correlated with mortality (r = -0.662, p = 0.010), suggesting that herds that achieved a high rate of gain also had lower mortality.  相似文献   

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Risk factors for high sow mortality in French swine herds   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Episodes of high sow mortality rates affect profitability of swine farms. However, relevant control actions are difficult to implement. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for high levels of sow mortality rate (HM) in French swine herds. A case-control study was carried out in 102 swine herds located in Brittany (western France). Level of sow mortality of a herd was quantified by the annual mortality rate using sow-days as denominator. Fifty-five (53.9%) herds which experienced a sow mortality rate over 5% were classified as HM herds. Logistic regression was used to assess associations of managerial practices and disease prevalence with the odds of HM. High prevalence of urinary tract infections, metritis or lameness were significantly associated with a HM herd status (P < 0.10, OR ranging from 3.4 to 5.2). Multiplying herds were herds at higher risk for sow mortality than commercial farrow-to-finish herds. Providing three meals per day instead of two to dry sows decreased the odds of HM. Feeding plans where the maximum daily amount of feed provided to lactating sows was lower than 8 kg and was reached before 15 d in lactation were related to lower odds of HM (P < 0.10). Average age at weaning of 28 d or more and/or small average litter size at birth (12 piglets or less) were associated with higher odds of experiencing HM.  相似文献   

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Multiple logistic regression was used on serological data collected in the context of the Sardinian African swine fever (ASF) eradication program from pig farms in the province of Nuoro, Sardinia. The monthly percentage of ASFV-positive herds decreased significantly from October 1994 through March 1996 (P < 0.001). The farm-level risk of seropositivity to African swine fever virus (ASFV) was higher in free-range farms than in partial-confinement farms (odds ratios (OR) varied between 4.9 in October 1994, and 5.7 in March 1996, P < 0.001). The risk of infection for total-confinement farms was one-fifth of the risk for partial-confinement farms in October 1994 (OR = 0.2, P < 0.001), whereas in March 1996, the estimated OR was 0.57 and not significant (upper confidence limit = 1.1). The maintenance of ASFV in Sardinia was primarily associated with free-range pig farms. The natural logarithm of the number of pigs tested per visit in a farm was positively associated with the risk of herd seropositivity (OR = 2.6, P < 0.001).  相似文献   

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Sixteen farms having an average lactation length between 14.9 and 18.9 days were selected based upon producers' willingness to keep records of production and lactation feed intake. Data contained 9162 subsequent litter-size records abstracted from computerized production information-system files and lactation feed-intake records. Two-way interactions between the associations of parity and lactation length, and parity and weaning-to-conception interval with subsequent litter size were found in the same statistical model. Subsequent litter size did not increase in parities 1 and 2 as lactation length increased – but subsequent litter size in sows of parities 3–6 increased. In only parity 1, sows with weaning-to-conception interval 6–12 days produced 0.5 fewer pigs at subsequent farrowing than those with weaning-to-conception interval 1–5 days. However, in multiparous sows, no difference in subsequent litter size was found between weaning-to-conception intervals 1–5 and 6–12 days.  相似文献   

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The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors of stillbirth and foetal mummification in 565 farrowings of four commercial pig farms in Brazil. Stillborn piglets were observed in 31.3% of the litters and the stillborn risk was 5.6%. Mummified foetuses occurred in 42.1% of the litters and the mummification risk was 3.4%. The potential risk factors were included in multivariable logistic regression models as categories: herd (1–4); parity (1, 2–5 and >5); litter size (<10, 10–12 and >12 piglets); farrowing length (≤3 or >3 h); presence of mummified foetuses (yes or no); farrowing induction (yes or no); use of oxytocin (yes or no); use of vaginal palpation (yes or no); body condition score (<3, 3 and ≥4), and placental production index (PPI) (≤5 or >5) which was measured as the ratio of total foetal weight to total placental weight. Duration of farrowing and use of farrowing induction, oxytocin or vaginal palpation were not included in the model that investigated the risk factors of foetal mummification. Two models were used to investigate the risk factors of stillbirth, one with and the other without the inclusion of farrowing length. When compared to sows of parity 2–5, sows of parity >5 had 1.7- and 1.6-times higher odds (P < 0.05) for stillbirth in the models with and without the inclusion of farrowing length, respectively. In both models, sows with more than 12 piglets/litter had 3.6-times higher odds of stillbirth occurrence compared to sows with less than 10 piglets (P < 0.05). Sows with prolonged farrowing (>3 h) had 2.0-times higher odds of stillbirth occurrence than sows with short farrowing (P < 0.05). Sows with more than 12 piglets/litter had 14.5-times higher odds of mummification compared to sows with less than 10 piglets (P < 0.05). Sows of parities 1 and >5 had 3.5- and 2.0-times, respectively, higher odds of mummification in comparison to sows of parity 2–5 (P < 0.05). Sows with low PPI had 1.7-times higher odds of mummification compared to those with high PPI (P < 0.05). A large litter, a high-parity and a prolonged farrowing increased the risk of stillbirth. The probability of having a mummified foetus was increased in very young and older sows, when having a large litter and a litter with a less efficient placenta.  相似文献   

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Effect of atrophic rhinitis on growth rate in Illinois swine herds   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Influence of atrophic rhinitis (AR) on mean daily weight gain (MDG) was studied in hogs randomly selected from 7 farrow-to-finish herds in Illinois. Herds were selected to obtain a wide range of clinical signs and lesions of the disease; thus, prevalence of clinical signs of AR in finishing hogs ranged from 0% to 20% among herds, and in hogs examined at slaughter the proportion of hogs with turbinate lesions ranged from 5% to 92%. None of the herds investigated had any obvious problems with pneumonia; nevertheless, hogs with moderate to severe pneumonic lesions were excluded from the study, to minimize any combined effect of AR and pneumonia. In 3 herds, MDG in AR-free pigs was 15% to 18% better than in pigs with severe AR lesions. Prevalence of clinical signs ranged from 5% to 20%, and of turbinate lesions, from 66% to 92%. In 4 herds in which MDG appeared to be unaffected by AR, prevalence of clinical signs of the disease ranged from 0% to 5%, and of turbinate lesions, from 5% to 74%. No consistent pattern of influence on AR lesions was found for bacterial infections, as determined by culturing of nasal swab specimens on MacConkey agar and blood agar.  相似文献   

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Estimation of the cost of pneumonia in swine herds   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
The data from studies of pneumonia, in which growth rate and feed conversion were measured, were examined with respect to the expected change in feed efficiency associated with a specific reduction in growth rate attributable to pneumonia in a swine herd. Information from 5 other studies was used to determine the expected reduction in growth rate that would be associated with the severity of pneumonia in the herd as determined by lesions recorded at slaughter. Together these calculations provide a reasonable estimation of the economic loss associated with pneumonia in a swine herd.  相似文献   

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Anellovirus is a recently created, floating genus of viruses. Torque teno virus (TTV), the type species in the genus, was first discovered in a human patient with a post-transfusion hepatitis of unknown aetiology. Recently, TTV genetically related to but distinct from those discovered in humans have also been found in animals, including pigs. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of swine TTV in Italian pig herds and some risk factors possibly associated with this infection. Serum samples from 179 healthy pigs from 10 farms located in north-central Italy were tested by polymerase chain reaction for the presence of swine TTV DNA. Viral DNA was found in the sera of 43 pigs (24.0%), coming from eight of the 10 farms examined. Prevalence was significantly higher in finishing herds (40.1%) than in farrow-to-finish herds (11.0%) and did not depend on the size of the herd. Within the finishing herds the prevalence was significantly higher in weaners (57.4%) than in fatteners (22.9%), but this difference was not observed in farrow-to-finish herds. No relationship was observed between the prevalence of swine TTV and the implementation of some general hygiene practices and biosecurity procedures within the herds.  相似文献   

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A longitudinal study of Salmonella enterica infection was carried out in five Italian farrow-to-finish swine herds previously known to be infected by Salmonella. Five litters were randomly selected from each herd and in each litter six piglets were randomly selected and individually identified. Thus, the study included 30 pigs from each farm. At weaning, individual blood samples were collected for serological examination from all selected piglets and on the same day from all sows in the farrowing unit. Piglets were bled again at approximately 60, 90, 150, 210 and 270 days of life whereas the last blood sample was collected at slaughtering. In one of the herds, in which the duration of productive cycle was about 12 months, the last blood samples were collected at 350 days of life. With the same time scheduling, five pen pooled faecal samples were collected from each herd for bacteriological examination. At slaughtering, mesenteric lymph nodes were collected from each ear-tagged pig. Sero-prevalence (cut off S/P ratio 0.25) in sows varied from 93.8% to 100%. In four herds, sero-prevalence in piglets showed a similar profile with complete decline of maternal antibodies at day 60 and clear sero-conversion between day 90 and day 150. In one herd, sero-conversion was observed earlier and 56% of piglets were positive at day 90. The peak of sero-prevalence was observed between day 210 and day 270. Sero-prevalence at slaughtering varied from 66% to 100%. Salmonella was isolated from faecal samples in four of five herds. No Salmonella was isolated from mesenteric lymph nodes at slaughter in two of the herds. Culture prevalence from mesenteric lymph nodes in the other three herds ranged from 3.3% to 30%. This longitudinal study provides original information about epidemiological dynamics of Salmonella enterica infection in Italian swine herds in consideration of the unique extended fattening period typical of the Italian production.  相似文献   

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This research included 2 prevalence studies and a risk-factor investigation conducted in 2001 at 93 sites with sows only, finishers only, or both. In 2001, 1300 serum samples from sows in 65 herds and 720 serum samples from finisher pigs in 72 herds were tested for antibodies to swine influenzavirus (SIV) of H1N1 subtype with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In 2003, 1140 serum samples from sows in 76 herds were tested for antibodies to SIV of H3N2 subtype with a hemagglutination-inhibition assay based on A/Swine/Colorado/1/77 and A/Swine/Texas/4199-2/98 isolates. The apparent pig-level H1N1 seroprevalence in 2001 was 61.1% and 24.3% in sows and finishers, respectively. The apparent pig-level seroprevalence in 2003 for H3N2 A/Sw/CO/1/77 and A/Sw/TX/4199-2/98 in sows was 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. The factors associated with sow-herd H1N1 positivity included pig or farm density at different geographic levels, an external source of breeding pigs, number of animals on site, and decreasing proximity to other barns. Higher-parity sows had higher odds of seropositivity, but there was significant random variability in this association among herds. The odds of finisher-herd SIV positivity were higher with large herd size, high pig farm density, and farrow-to-finish type of farm. Finisher herds were SIV-positive only if source sow herds were positive. Simultaneously, 45% of finisher herds were SIV-negative although sow source herds were positive.  相似文献   

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Data were collected from 80 North American users of a computerized health and management software program for the period August 1985 through July 1986. Fifty-four herds were selected for analysis based on selection criteria of 1) stable herd inventory, 2) complete recorded data, 3) weaning-to-first service interval greater than 3 d and less than 20 d, and 4) culling rate greater than 10%. These herds had an average of 18.2 pigs weaned/(female.year) (PWFY), 2.1 litters/(female.year) (LFY), 81% farrowing rate, 10.2 pigs born live/litter and 14.5% preweaning mortality. Compared with the 14 herds with the lowest values for pigs weaned/(female.year), high-productivity herds (i.e., the 14 herds with the highest values for PWFY) had higher LFY, farrowing rate, total and live pigs born/litter and sow-gilt ratio; they also had lower nonproductive female days (NPFD), lower preweaning mortality and fewer gilts as a proportion of female inventory. Herd size and PWFY were not correlated. A negative correlation between herd size and pigs born live remained after controlling for average lactation length (r = -.30). Nonproductive female days was highly correlated with LFY (r = -.87). Increasing herd age, measured by the sow-gilt ratio, was associated mainly with a reduction in NPFD, although there was a slight positive association with pigs born alive (r = .29).  相似文献   

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Performance test records collected from 1978 to 1987 from on-farm tests of young Polish Large White boars from 94 herds and reproductive records of Polish Large White sows from 81 nucleus farms were used to estimate the phenotypic, environmental, and genetic trends. There were, after editing, 114,347 boar performance records and 41,080 litter records on sows. Both data sets were analyzed by use of an animal model. Estimated annual phenotypic and environmental trends were relatively large and desirable and were, respectively, .17 +/- .05, .11 +/- .05 (number born alive); .16 +/- .04, .10 +/- .04 (21-d litter size); 1.86 +/- .63, 1.43 +/- .62 (21-d litter weight, kg); 6.80 +/- .60, 6.76 +/- .72 (average daily gain, g/d); -.065 +/- .007, -.058 +/- .023 (backfat thickness, mm); -2.76 +/- .28, -2.75 +/- .29 (days to 110 kg). In contrast, all estimated genetic trends were relatively small and not always favorable. The genetic trends estimated from animal, sire and dam genetic values were, respectively, .01 +/- .01, .02 +/- .01, .01 +/- .01 (number born alive and 21-d litter size); .04 +/- .06, .10 +/- .05, .05 +/- .04 (21-d litter weight, kg); .04 +/- .04, .50 +/- .10, -.43 +/- .05 (average daily gain, g/d), -.009 +/- .001, -.015 +/- .002, -.004 +/- .0004 (backfat thickness, mm); and -.01 +/- .01, -.17 +/- .04, .19 +/- .02 (days to 110 kg). Neither examination of selection practices nor boar utilization provided an explanation for the lack of genetic progress.  相似文献   

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