我国木材市场供需预测模型设计

在由传统的计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制的转轨中，市场在森林资源配置方面发挥愈来愈重要的作用，因此研究我国木材供需情况尤为重要，在借鉴国内外木材市场供需预测的基础上，笔者提出采用线性差分方程进行木材需求预测。根据利益最大化原则，采用倒算法并建立相应模型，并考虑到实现林业可持续发展的要求，在木材供给预测中，采用国家补助作为一项重要因素。根据木材供需预测情况，可制定相应政策建议。     

中国木材供需现状与趋势

分析了中国木材供需的现状,主要特点为:中国木材供给与需求产量在不断扩大,已经形成木材资源供给结构调节机制。中国木材加工具有强大的技术优势,这种优势将转化为市场优势。提出林业政策和环保组织对木材供需造成一定影响,包括中国采伐限额政策、一些国家木材贸易政策等。     

中国对外木材贸易概述

通过分析中国对外木材贸易文献,显示了中国近年原木供需结构和木材产品进口 量,并对短期的木材贸易进行了预测。     

1995年木材供需形势

１９９５年木材供需形势由于去年木材资源稍有减少，而市场需求下降幅度较大，致使国内木材供需矛盾相对缓和，价格稳中有降；企业经营难度加大，部分企业出现了一定程度的亏损，据有关部门预测，１９９５年木材市场总体上将呈现出较为平稳的发展趋势，突出表现在供求总体...     

我国木材供需预测研究的回顾与评价

木材供需预测是研究林业发展战略的一个重要方面。对2000年我国木材供需量的预测,就笔者所知,近几年国内许多研究部门先后作了一些研究,取得了一些成果。本文根据近几年国内一些资料与有关文献,进行归纳分析整理,谈谈我国木材供需预测的研究状况。这对今后我国制定林业发展战略,尤其是应用预测方法预测我国木材供需状况或许有所借鉴。(一) 由于世界人口的增加,工业的发展,森林资源急剧减少,木材供需矛盾加大。近30年来世界各国林学家、林业经济管理专家先后就这些问题进行了研究。美国农业部林务局对全国林业的长远发展曾先后进行过四次远景预测(1968、1965、1974和1982年)。上述预测中都包括了对全国今后木材供需量的预测。英国林业专家为了改变英国每年要支付30亿英磅用来进口木材和各种林产品的状况,提出了大力造林的建议,为吸引大笔资金投资林业,他们作     

河南省木材产品市场供求趋势分析

随着国民经济的快速增长和人民生活水平的不断提高,社会对木材和主要林产品的需求量急剧增加,河南省木材缺口逐年加大。针对河南省当前木材加工业面临的问题,重点分析商品材需求与供给、木材市场变化及加工业能力,预测未来需求量,并对今后木材供需变化及其产生的原因进行简单分析和预测。     

木材产品的供给、需求及其均衡

所谓木材产品的供给与需求是指其供需特点与供需数量以及供需之间的关系。在市场经济条件下,木材产品的供给与需求是通过市场达到均衡的。当木材需求大于供给时,木材价格将会上升;当木材需求小于供给时,木材价格则会下降。木材产品市场的一切交易活动和价格的变动都受到这一规律的支配。而在计划指导下的市场经济条件下,木材产品的供求均衡固然离不开供求规律的作用,但从木材供需本身的特点出发,寻找解决木材供需矛盾的途径,制定相应的宏观政策进行指导,则是更为重要的。     

西北地区木材市场现状及前景分析

西北地区木材总量供需矛盾仍然突出,结构性供需矛盾仍然存在,价格稳中看涨,未来木材供求形势将更加严峻。本文介绍了中国木材市场供需和进口现状及发展趋势。解决木材供需缺口不可能长期依赖进口,扩大国内商品材的生产是根本途径。主张通过木材产业发展促进西北地区产业结构调整从而达到林业资源的充分利用。     

中国木材市场供给总量与结构研究

对中国木材市场供给总量与结构进行了详细阐述，重点在以下几个方面提出了独到的观点：1．国产商品材包括统计内产量与统计外产量，给出了统计外产量的计算公式，从而可以由此得出每年全国商品材产量，该产量是全国森林资源消耗总量中用于商品材的全部木材产量。2．把中国木材进口产品分为两类：木质类产品和纸类产品。指出了目前对有关进口产品折合木材量计算方法的不足，并以木材利用率为依据，提出了新的折算方法。3．论证了把纸类进口总量从中国木材市场供给总量中独立出来进行研究，更符合国际木材市场和中国木材市场的实际。4．论证了中国国产商品材与进口木质类产品数量上呈互补特征，以及论证了中国木材市场供给总量呈周期性变化规律。5．根据中国国产商品材产量、进口材产量和中国木材出口量，计算出中国国内消耗木材量。     

2010年全球木材供需概况

２０１０年全球木材供需概况２０１０年木材供需根据到２０１０年世界人口将增长３７％，联合国粮农组织预测，到２０１０年全球对木材的需求量将比１９９０年增长４０％以上，即从３４．３３亿ｍ３增加到５０多亿ｍ３。表１　１９９０～２０１０年全球木材及林产品需求增...     

东北内蒙古地区2010年木材供需预测

预测2010年东北、内蒙古地区木材的供需状况。到2010年区域木材供给量为4808.50万m^3,其中区域木材产量占58%,从俄罗斯进口的木材占42%。木材的需求量为6475.81万m^3,供需缺口达1 667万m^3。不考虑区域外的需求及国外的需求,东北、内蒙古地区的木材供给还是能够满足本地区经济建设需求的。木材供需的缺口对本地区木材需求不会造成太大的影响,但却对其他地区对木材的需求将产生重要影响。对于东北、内蒙古地区而言,俄罗斯远东地区是理想的木材供应基地,应规范企业的对俄木材贸易,将这一地区开发成可持续的木材供应市场。     

Study on Balance between Supply and Demand for Timber and Timber Products in China

INTRODUCTION Because China is deficient in forest resources, and the forest has the characteristics of low quality, uneven distribution, slow growth and severe situation of ecological environment, the ecology construction has become the first requirement in society and with the implementation of the “Natural Forest Conservation Program”, Chinese forestry is in the historic transition from timber production to ecological construction. Therefore, the timber production in China increases…     

浅析我国造纸工业木材原料市场及发展趋势

随着纸及纸板生产与消费数量的不断提高,我国造纸工业结构调整的发展对木材原料的需求将持续增加。我国木材市场数据显示,以原木、锯材等为代表的木材原料,以木浆、木片为代表的造纸原料进口均呈平稳增长趋势,木材市场供需矛盾突出。造纸工业竞争的核心是木材原料的争夺,而我国木材市场自有木材供给的严重不足性和进口总量的绝对依赖性特征决定了造纸工业木材原料未来仍将依靠进口。     

Market analysis for timber and forest products in China

lntroductionChina'sterritoryisvast,buttheforestedareaisless.About29%areaofChinaisdesertandbaremOuntains(Zhangetal.1997).ThefourthnationaIforestsurvey,whichwasconductedbytheMinistryofForestryin1989~1993,indicatesthat133.7millionhm2or13.92%oftheIandareaofChinaareforest.Thestockoflivingtreesis11.785bilIionm',ofwhich1o.1biIIionisinforest.Thenetgrowthofstandingvolumeiso.4biIIionm3peryear,whiIethecutisO.3billionm',ofwhichatleastonethirdisfarfueIwood.Sotheforestresourcesarenotrich,forestcoveri…     

中国木材进口量走势及波动分析

文中采用2003年1月至2020年6月中国海关数据，研究中国针叶材和阔叶材进口量长期走势及短期波动；基于ARIMA模型，提出了拟合木材进口数据的一般分析流程，主要步骤包括数据呈现及方差平抑、数据平稳化处理、自相关检验、滞后项网格化搜索、残差项检验、预测分析等。研究发现:拟合针叶材进口最好的模型为ARIMA（1，0，1）（2，1，1）₁₂，预计针叶材进口返回长期趋势的时点不早于2021年3月；对阔叶材进口解释力最强的模型为ARIMA（0，1，2）（0，1，3）₁₂，2020年下半年阔叶材进口仍会延续总体下行的趋势，但于2021年达到新稳态；2020年木材总进口量估计下降1 000万m3，向1亿m3的关口回落。中国进口木材市场格局正由以趋势性增长为主转变为以波动性平衡为主，加强预测、做好预案有利于降低市场系统性风险。     

中国木材市场现状、存在问题和发展建议

介绍了中国木材市场供需和进口现状及发展趋势。建议发展木结构房屋和铁路杨木枕木等以人工林为主要原料的木材制品,改变消费观念,促进人造板工业发展,调整人造板消费结构,扩大在建筑方面的应用,以木材工业的发展促进林业的发展。提出扩大非公有制人工林发展,大力进口俄罗斯木材和新西兰木材,以弥补国产木材不足。并建议适当减少热带阔叶木材进口,以保护全球生态环境。     

Missing links between timber scarcity and industrial overcapacity: Lessons from the Indonesian Pulp and Paper expansion

Timber scarcity relates to the evolution of stocks in both natural forests and tree plantations, relative to the demand from timber processing industries. Several economic indicators are used to evaluate timber scarcity. In particular, the market price of timber stumpage is believed to send a signal to investors in timber growing and to further regulate mill investments, thus preventing industrial overcapacities from emerging relative to future available wood supply. Our analysis of the Indonesian Pulp and Paper industry, one that expanded impressively in the 1990's and installed large overcapacities, gives us the elements to discuss the applicability of market price as a scarcity signal. Specific conditions, usually found in the developing world, most importantly weak or compromised public governance, flawed corporate governance, and the monopsony character of wood supply mechanisms, prevent the development of a market price scarcity signal. In this paper, special attention is paid to the complexity of the wood supply chain and the nature of the actors involved. This, together with the absence of pricing transparency, allows industrial overcapacities to occur, leading to the depletion of the natural forest. A key unresolved mystery here is why the private capital providers made no effort to detect this obvious and critical risk to the repayment capacity of their investments. The apparent absence of any government role in enforcing sustainable harvest or capacity levels results from state capture and governance failure, topics fully discussed elsewhere in the Indonesian case. The situation has implications for supply modeling as well as for public and private policies.     

中小型空调生产企业需求预测方法的研究

空调是季节性比较强的产品，淡旺季需求与产能的不均衡会导致空调企业成本的增加。本文在分析空调产品需求特点及市场发展趋势的基础上，对国内中小型空调生产企业的需求预测进行研究，结合企业自身状况选择适用的需求预测方法建立完整的需求预测体系，并就其在实践中的运用给出具体说明。     

Determinants of illegal logging in Indonesia: An empirical analysis for the period 1996–2010

Illegal logging is a significant problem in Indonesia, which is one of the few countries with a large forest area. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect harvesting and supply of illegal timber from Indonesia to China and Japan. Moreover, we investigate the factors that lead to the demand of Indonesian illegal timber from China and Japan. A simultaneous-equation econometric model of illegally logged timber demand and supply is developed and tested using the annual data over the period 1996–2010. We find that corruption and decentralization in Indonesia have significant and positive impacts on the illegally logged timber supply while excess demand in Japanese construction and furniture industries as well as Japan’s housing starts are the significant factors that affect the illegal logging in Indonesia. The law enforcement or policies aimed at reducing illegal harvesting in Indonesia are found to be more effective than the policies targeting the import of illegally logged timber into Japan and China.     

The potential rural development impacts of utilizing non-merchantable forest biomass

The development of a market for currently non-merchantable forest material, such as harvest residues or small diameter trees, has been suggested as a possible win-win solution that could: (i) provide a material that can be processed in rural communities reeling from changes in the forest products industry and policy environment; (ii) capture more value from timber management activities; and (iii) provide a financial incentive for treatments to reduce wildfire risk or restore forest stands. Modeling the supply of this material with spatially-explicit potential demand locations allows for a realistic analysis of the feasibility of such a market to stimulate rural development. We model multiple scenarios for the utilization of harvest residues within the current forest products market in western Oregon. Sensitivity analysis explored the effects of cost of the depots on feasibility, including policy designed to support depot establishment through subsidies. Scenarios were also used to assess the effects of increases in federal harvest activities. Results suggest that with relatively high biomass prices, there is some potential for investment in depots to aid rural communities in western Oregon, but there is little change in either the overall feasibility or the location of depot establishment under scenarios of increased federal harvest.