蛋鸡市场回顾及来年走势预测

假如没有2005年10月底开始的一轮席卷全球的禽流感疫情,2005年,对于我国的蛋鸡养殖业来说应该是一个非常完美的“丰收年”。蛋鸡养殖维持了近几年来最长时间的高盈利:2005年1-11月,主产区每只蛋鸡平均盈利14元左右,远高于5-10元／只的正常盈利水平,主产区鸡蛋平均批发价格5．26元／kg,高于4-4．4元／kg的成本线约0．8-1．2元／kg,养殖效益非常可观。究竟是哪些因素导致了2005年蛋鸡市场如此好的行情?2005年10月底的一轮禽流感疫情对蛋鸡市场产生了何种深度的影响?2006年我国蛋鸡市场又将走向何方?笔者对以上几个热点问题进行了深入分析研究,供读者参考。     

2005年蛋鸡市场分析回顾及2006年走势预测

假如没有2005年10月底开始的一轮席卷全球的禽流感疫情,2005年对于我国的蛋鸡养殖业来说应该是一个非常完美的“丰收年”。蛋鸡养殖维持了近几年来最长时间的高盈利:2005年1～11月,主产区每只蛋鸡平均盈利14元左右,远高于5～10元/只的正常盈利水平,主产区鸡蛋平均批发价格5.26元/千克,高于4～4.4元/千克的成本线约0.8～1.2元/千克,养殖效益非常可观。究竟是哪些因素导致了2005年蛋鸡市场如此好的行情?2005年10月底的一轮禽流感疫情对蛋鸡市场产生了何种深度的影响?2006年我国蛋鸡市场又将走向何方?……笔者对以上几个热点问题进行了深入分析…     

2005年下半年国内蛋鸡市场分析展望

2005年1～8月份，国内蛋鸡市场总体波动仍呈现“后禽流感”时期特点，“节日效应”明显。主产区鸡蛋价格波动与去年同期相似。河北、山东、河南、江苏四大鸡蛋主产省1～7月份平均蛋价5．63元／千克。较去年同期的5．14元／千克上涨0．49元／千克。1～8月份主产区养殖户盈利在11．13元／只左右，远高于去年同期的3．61元／只左右，养殖效益处于正常略高水平，养殖户补栏积极性较高，对生产有利。1～8月份国际鸡蛋价格持续下跌，与国内鸡蛋主产区之间的价差逐渐缩小，1～8月份平均价差为9．67元／千克，出口潜力巨大。     

1～8份蛋鸡市场分析及后市展望

2005年18月份，国内蛋鸡市场总体波动仍呈现“后禽流感”时期特点，“节日效应”明显。主产区鸡蛋价格波动与去年同期相似。河北、山东、河南、江苏四大鸡蛋主产省17月份平均蛋价5．63元／公斤，较去年同期的5，14元／公斤上涨0.49元／公斤。18月份主产区养殖户盈利在11，13元／只左右，远高于去年同期的3．61元／只左右，养殖效益处于正常略高水平，养殖户补栏积极性较高，对生产有利。1-8月份国际鸡蛋价格持续下跌，与国内鸡蛋主产区之间的价差逐渐缩小，1-8月份平均价差为9．67元／公斤，出口潜力巨大。     

2008年蛋鸡行情分析及2009年市场预测

<正>2008年的蛋鸡市场可谓一波三折,全年蛋鸡养殖盈利期达7个月。主产区蛋鸡平均盈利4.58元/只左右,低于正常的盈利水平。其中,8—10月为较高的盈利区间,盈利水平约10~24元/只;主产区鸡蛋     

1～8月份蛋鸡市场分析及后市展望

2005年1-8月份,国内蛋鸡市场总体波动仍呈现“后禽流感”时期特点,“节日效应”明显。主产区鸡蛋价格波动与去年同期相似。河北、山东、河南、江苏四大鸡蛋主产省1-7月份平均蛋价5.63元/公斤,较去年同期的5.14元/公斤上涨0.49元/公斤。1-8月份主产区养殖户盈利在11.13元/只左右,远高于去年同期的3.61元/只左右,养殖效益处于正常略高水平,养殖户补栏积极性较高,对生产有利。1-8月份国际鸡蛋价格持续下跌,与国内鸡蛋主产区之间的价差逐渐缩小,1-8月份平均价差为9.67元/公斤,出口潜力巨大。     

2006年蔗糖市场预测

蔗糖是蜂农饲喂蜜蜂的主要饲料，据调查，缙云县蜂场平均每年用蔗糖量在1．5t。2005年上半年，蔗糖销售价3.40元／kg，秋天以后，销售价一直上涨，现在是5．60元/k，这个结果使蜂农目瞪口呆，感到不可思议。分析原因有三个：其一，广西是我国蔗糖主产区，2005年夏秋干旱，造成甘蔗减产。其二，从2005年下半年开始，国际市场的蔗糖处于高价，进口价为4200元／t。     

2005年禽蛋市场走势分析及展望

去年我国禽蛋市场经历了历史上罕见的大起大落局面。鸡蛋主产区鸡蛋平均出厂价格在“禽流感”疫情的影响下呈现出明显的“节日效应”——节前上涨、节后下跌，震荡区间为3．8～6．8元／kg．涨跌幅度达2．5～3.0元／kg!其本质原因在于供应变化较小，而节前、节后需求变化较大。进入2005年后“节日效应”是否能够继续成为主导禽蛋市场变化的“主角”?     

2010年上半年国内外饲料市场栅况

1上半年我国饲料产品价格稳中有升上半年我国饲料产品价格稳中有升。1—4月我国饲料产品价格持稳．育肥猪配合饲料价格在2．68～2．69元／kg,肉鸡配合饲料价格在2．83-2．85元／kg,蛋鸡配合饲料价格2．56-2．58元／kg。5月份开始饲料价格全面上涨．2010年6月全国育肥猪配合饲料平均价格为2．73元/kg,环比上涨0．4％,     

1996年蛋鸡生产情况和1997年发展前景预测

1996年是蛋鸡生产蓬勃发展、栏存增加、效益提高的一年，养鸡业成为部分地区农村经济的支柱产业。现就1996年蛋鸡生产情况和1997年发展前景作如下分析和预测：11996年蛋鸡生产情况分析1．1蛋价、饲料价格走势和养鸡效益1．1．1蛋价走势根据江苏省畜牧局对11个地级市的23个菜市场的调查，1996年鸡蛋平均价为7675元／公斤，比1995年6833元／公斤上升0.682元／公斤．上升幅度为9.99％.1996年中有11个月蛋价同于上年同期水平．其中每公斤鸡蛋价格净增！元以上的有6个月（2～7月份），5-6月份高于同期17元；蛋价在8元／公斤以上有7、8、9三个月，…     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1984

In late December 1984, 1853 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1984 and 35% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 97,794 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 1417 dogs (1.45% of those tested) were found with heartworm. Another 34 dogs were amicrofilaremic, but were diagnosed as having heartworm disease, to give the total number diagnosed in 1984 as 1451 (1.48%). Heartworm was reported from all provinces except Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland but most (1310) of the cases were in Ontario. In Quebec, 126 cases were reported mostly from west of Montreal.

Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 27% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 72% had a history of not having left Canada. Southwestern Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1983

In late December 1983, 2 800 veterinarians across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of heartworm disease in Canada in 1983 and 26% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 59 504 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 771 dogs (1.30% of those tested) were found with Dirofilaria immitis. Heartworm disease was diagnosed in all provinces except New Brunswick and Newfoundland but most (733) of the cases were in Ontario.

Heartworm disease was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 31% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 64% had a history of not having left Canada. Southwestern Ontario continues to be the focus of the infection and most of the dogs there had not left the province previously.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1991

In late November 1991, 1883 clinics in Canada were sent a questionnaire to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in dogs in 1991 and there was a 60.0% response. There were 344,031 dogs tested for heart-worm (HW), 627 were found infected and the prevalence of HW infection was 0.18%. There were 417 dogs with HW in Ontario, 116 in Manitoba, 38 in Quebec, 53 in British Columbia, three in Alberta, and one in Nova Scotia. In British Columbia, all of the infected dogs but one were from the Okanagan valley which, as from 1991, is a new focus of infection in Canada. Most dogs with HW had not been on preventive medication in 1990, and the prevalence among dogs tested and unprotected was 0.59%. That prevalence was considerably higher in endemic areas. Companion dogs, over three years of age and maintained primarily outdoors in rural areas, were most frequently infected. One cat was diagnosed with D. immitis and 33 dogs had Dipetalonema reconditium.     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1985

In late December 1985, 1485 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1985 and 44% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 137,300 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 1210 dogs were found with heartworm. Another 36 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number diagnosed in 1985 as 1247 (0.91%).

Heartworm was reported from all provinces except Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Saskatchewan but most (1126) of the cases were in Ontario. Southwestern Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection in Canada. From Quebec, 91 cases were reported mostly from and around Montreal. From Manitoba, 19 cases were reported from Winnipeg and surrounding areas. Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 28% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 78% had a history of not having left Canada.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1988

In late November 1988, 1581 small and mixed animal clinics and institutional veterinarians across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1988, and 46% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 181,577 dogs were blood-tested for heartworm disease and 367 dogs were found with D. immitis microfilariae. Another 60 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number of cases diagnosed in 1988 as 441 (0.24%).     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1989

In late November 1989, 1732 clinics and institutional veterinarians were sent a questionnaire to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis, and 51.7% responded. Of 247,716 dogs tested, 394 had D. immitis microfilariae and 51 were amicrofilaremic for a total of 445 cases and heartworm prevalence of 0.17%. Most (408) of these dogs had no preventive medication and the prevalence among dogs tested and unprotected was 1.01%. That prevalence was considerably higher in endemic areas. Thirty-seven dogs with heartworm had preventive medication. Heartworm was most frequent in companion dogs over three years of age maintained outdoors in rural areas. About 75% of the cases had never left Canada, 26% had clinical signs and 125 were not treated.

Heartworm was reported from British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but 383 cases were in Ontario. South-western Ontario was the primary focus of infection. There were 33 cases in Quebec and 24 in Manitoba, mainly found in and around Metropolitan Montreal and Winnipeg respectively.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1987

In late November 1987, 1246 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1987, and 50% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 165,428 dogs were blood tested for heartworm disease and 511 dogs were found with D. immitis microfilariae. Another 78 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number of cases diagnosed in 1987 as 589 (0.35%).     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1986

In late December 1986, 1224 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1986; 46% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 150,989 dogs were blood-tested for microfilariae and 869 dogs were found with heartworm. Another 65 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease and one was found with heartworm at necropsy to give the total number diagnosed in 1986 as 935 (0.62%).

Heartworm was reported from Manitoba, New Brunswick, Ontario and Quebec, but most (810) of the cases were from Ontario. South-western Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection in Canada. There were 103 cases reported from Quebec, mostly from and around Montreal, and 21 cases from Manitoba, from Winnipeg and surrounding areas. Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 33% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 81% had a history of not having left Canada.