Prevalence of bovine tuberculosis in pastoral cattle herds in the Oromia region,southern Ethiopia

A cross-sectional study of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) was conducted in pastoral cattle herds in southern Ethiopia, from February to August 2008 using the comparative intradermal tuberculin test. The prevalence of BTB and the risk factors for having positive reactor herds were assessed in four pastoral associations in two districts of southern Ethiopia, namely Goro-Dola with 242 cattle in 16 herds and Liben with 231 cattle in 15 herds. A herd was considered positive if there was at least one reactor animal in a herd. The test results were interpreted based on the Office Internationale des Epizooties recommended 4-mm and a recently suggested 2-mm cut-off. The apparent individual animal prevalence of tuberculin reactors was 5.5% (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.0–8.0%) and 7.0% (95% CI, 5.0–10.0%), whereas the true prevalence estimate was 4.4% (95% CI, 0.8–8.0%) and 6.1% (95% CI, 2.6–9.5%), when using the 4-mm and the 2-mm cut-offs, respectively. The overall herd apparent prevalence of tuberculin reactor animals was 41.9% (95% CI, 24.9–60.9%) and 48.4% (95% CI, 30.2–66.9%) with the 4-mm and 2-mm cut-offs, respectively. A positive tuberculin test was associated with the age of animals and the main drinking water sources during dry seasons. In order to investigate the public health risks and the epidemiological importance of BTB in the area, we recommend to include other livestock species (camels and goats) as well as humans in future studies.     

Risk factors for the between-herd spread of Mycobacterium bovis in Canadian cattle and cervids between 1985 and 1994.

Microorganisms of the genus Mycobacterium cause tuberculosis in many animal species including humans. Generally, Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) infects cattle and cervids, but it has the potential to infect virtually all species of mammals. This study examined and analysed the data from the nine outbreaks of tuberculosis in Canadian cattle and cervids from 1985 to 1994. For the purposes of this study, a positive herd was one with at least one culture-positive animal. A reactor herd had at least one animal which was positive or suspicious on a mid-cervical, comparative cervical, or gross or histopathologic test for tuberculosis. Herd classification was either reactor/positive or negative. Data for the study were collected from the outbreak records in the Regional or District offices of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Logistic regression was used to study spread of tuberculosis between herds. Two risk factors were identified: increasing herd size; and, the reason why a herd was investigated as part of the outbreak. This latter factor was interpreted as a surrogate measure for the nature of contact between the study herd and other potentially infected herds in the outbreak. Increasing herd size was associated with an increased risk of being positive for tuberculosis with herds of 16-35, 36-80, and >80 animals having odds ratios of 2.9, 5.8, and 9.3, respectively, when compared to a herd size of <16 animals (p < 0.001). When compared to perimeter testing (i.e. testing herds within a specified radius of an infected herd), all other reasons for investigation had higher odds ratios (p < 0.001). These odds ratios were 57.8 for traceout herds (i.e. herds which had purchased animal(s) from a reactor/positive herd), 31.8 for herds with pasture or fence-line contact with a reactor/positive herd, and 14.9 for traceback herds (i.e. herds which had been a source of animals for reactor/positive herd(s)).     

Breakdown severity during a bovine tuberculosis episode as a predictor of future herd breakdowns in Ireland

A retrospective cohort study of Irish cattle herds investigated whether the severity of a herd’s bovine tuberculosis (BTB) breakdown was a predictor of the hazard of a future BTB breakdown in that herd. Data on 10,926 herds not having had BTB in 1995 (the “non-exposed” group) were obtained using a 10% random sample from all herds without BTB in 1995. Data on 6757 herds that had a new BTB breakdown in 1995 (the “exposed” group) were obtained and categorized into five increasing exposure-severity classes based on the total number of standard reactors (to the single intra-dermal comparative cervical tuberculin test) detected during the breakdown. Exposed herds were deemed to be free of BTB after they passed a 6-month check test; non-exposed herds were deemed free as of the date of the first negative herd-test in 1995.

In the 5 years after 1995, 18% of the non-exposed herds had a BTB breakdown, whereas 31% of the exposed herds had a subsequent breakdown. Relative to the hazard for non-exposed herds, the hazard for the first future singleton standard reactor breakdown, was 1.6-times higher for exposed herds with only 1 standard reactor in 1995, and 1.8-times higher for those exposed herds with 4–8 standard reactors during the 1995 episode. When the outcome for future breakdowns was 2 or more standard reactors, the hazard ratios ranged from 1.6 for exposed herds with only 1 standard reactor in 1995 up to 2.9 in exposed herds with 8 or more standard reactors during the 1995 episode. The latter hazard ratio varied over time, decreasing to 1.7 after 3 years of risk. The hazard of a future BTB breakdown increased directly with number of cattle in the herd, a positive history of previous BTB in the herd, and the local herd prevalence of BTB. The presence of confirmed BTB lesions in reactor cattle was not predictive of the future breakdown hazard when the effects of other factors were controlled.     

Management-related risk factors for M. paratuberculosis infection in Michigan, USA, dairy herds

A cross-sectional study was conducted from June through December 1996 to identify management-related risk factors for herd-level M. paratuberculosis infection. Data were collected from 121 participating herds. A two-part questionnaire was administered to gather data on current and previous management practices and herd productivity. A random sample of cows aged ≥24 months was selected from each herd and tested for antibodies to M. paratuberculosis using the IDEXX Antibody ELISA (sensitivity 64%, specificity 96%). A positive herd was one in which ≥2 animals tested positive for antibodies to M. paratuberculosis. A negative herd was one in which no animal tested positive. Herds in which only one animal tested positive were dropped from statistical analysis to reduce the risk of including false-positive herds in the statistical analyses.

There were 80 herds with one or more positive animals and 41 herds with no positive animals in the sample (66% herd-level prevalence). Twenty-six herds (21%) were dropped from further analyses because they had only one positive cow. Twelve herds (10%) were dropped from analysis because of missing data. The resulting sample used for statistical modeling included 46 positive herds and 37 negative herds (55% herd-level prevalence). A multi-variable logistic-regression model was used to evaluate the results. The variable ‘use of an exercise lot for lactating cows' was associated with a three-fold increase in odds of a herd being positive for M. paratuberculosis infection (O.R.=3.01, C.I.=1.03–8.80); ‘cleaning of maternity pens after each use' was associated with a three-fold reduction in odds of a herd being positive for M. paratuberculosis infection (O.R.=0.28, C.I.=0.08–0.89); ‘application of lime to pasture areas in 1993' resulted in a ten-fold decrease in odds of a herd being positive for M. paratuberculosis infection (O.R.=0.10, C.I.=0.02–0.56).     

Tuberculosis and brucellosis prevalence survey on dairy cattle in Mbarara milk basin (Uganda)

We determined the prevalence of tuberculosis and brucellosis reactors in the dairy herds in the Mbarara district of Uganda in 2002. This is one of the most important dairy-production areas of the country and includes both pastoral and agro-pastoral zones. A total of 340 (of 11,995) randomly selected herds were tested for tuberculosis, using the intradermal tuberculosis-skin test and 315 (of 10,562) herds tested for brucellosis using the serum Rose Bengal test.

The herd prevalence for tuberculosis reactors was 74.1% (95% confidence intervals 69, 78), the individual-animal prevalence was of 6.0% (5.6, 6.5) and within-herd range was 1–50% (up to 100% if suspicious reactors were included).

The herd prevalence for brucellosis was 55.6% (50, 61.2) individual-animal prevalence 15.8% (14.8, 16.7) and within-herd range 1–90%.

The reactor prevalence increased with the age of the animals for both tuberculosis and brucellosis.

Tuberculosis reactor prevalences were higher in animals from the agro-pastoral zone. However, the individual-animal and herd prevalences of brucellosis seroprevalences were higher in the pastoral zone.     

Risk associated with animals moved from herds infected with brucellosis in Northern Ireland

The movement of cattle from herds infected with Brucella abortus was investigated in order to assess the control measures for eradication of brucellosis from the cattle population of Northern Ireland. Using recorded cattle movement data, a historical cohort study was designed and carried out to quantify the risk of seropositivity in bovine animals moved from herds infected with brucellosis. The study found that 3.1% of animals, moved in the 6-month period prior to disclosure of infection in the source herd and subsequently tested, were interpreted as seropositive in their destination herds. The odds of seropositivity were approximately 19 (95% confidence interval: 7.8-46.4) times higher in this cohort compared with animals from herds with no history of infection. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to examine factors influencing the risk of seropositivity in the exposed cohort of animals, identifying maternal status (whether the dam had been a brucellosis reactor) and age at leaving the infected herd as the main risk factors.     

Longer-term risk of Mycobacterium bovis in Irish cattle following an inconclusive diagnosis to the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test

In Ireland, new bovine tuberculosis (bTB) cases are detected using both field and abattoir surveillance. During field surveillance, an animal may be deemed a 'standard inconclusive reactor' (SIR) to the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT) if the bovine response is >2mm, and from 1 to 4mm greater than the avian response. Little is known about the future infection risk posed by SIR animals that pass a subsequent retest, so-called 'transient SIR' (TIR) animals. The objective of this study was to critically evaluate the future bTB status of TIR animals, by examining the future risk of bTB diagnosis over the 4 years following initial SIR diagnosis and clearance at the subsequent retest. The study included all TIRs that were identified as SIRs in 2005 in otherwise free herds at tests with no other reactors at that test and that were clear at the subsequent retest. The analysis was restricted to cows that were neither sold, other than direct to slaughter, nor exported from the herd during the follow up period (to the end of 2009). Five control cows were randomly selected from each study herd. A parametric survival model with shared frailties, to account for clustering within herds, was developed to model time from passing a retest to future bTB diagnosis. The final parametric survival model contained the variables: TIR status in 2005, inconclusive status during the follow-up period, location, herd restricted during the study, time since last restriction within the herd and age. The time ratio for the TIR status variable was significant (p<0.001) indicating that on average the time to diagnosis with bTB for TIRs was 78% shorter compared to the non-TIRs. The frailty term was significant (p<0.001) indicating that animals within some herds were more likely to become reactors compared to other herds. These results have important implications for national policy and future management of TIR animals. Further, private veterinary practitioners and their clients should be aware of the increased risk associated with TIRs.     

Effect of a test and control program for bovine Johne's disease in Victorian dairy herds 1992 - 2002

OBJECTIVE: To report on progress in Johne's disease (JD) control in infected dairy herds participating in the Victorian Johne's disease Test and Control Program (TCP). PROCEDURE: Clinical histories and JD testing data recorded by the Department of Natural Resources and Environment (now called Department of Primary Industries) were analysed for 542 dairy herds participating in the TCP. The herds were required to conduct annual herd tests of cattle 2 years old and older with an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), cull the reactors and manage the younger cattle to minimise infection. RESULTS: Testing of over 680,000 animals identified over 10,000 reactors giving an average prevalence of reactors at the first whole-herd test (T1) of 1.78%. There was a relatively rapid increase in the incidence of clinical disease before the TCP started and then it markedly declined. There was a slow and interrupted decline in reactor prevalence, with a marked peak occurring at the fourth herd test (T4). The average age of reactors and clinical cases was 5.7 and 5.9 years, respectively. Of the reactors and clinical cases detected during the TCP, 87% and 95% respectively, were born before the TCP started. Thirty herds completed the program by achieving three successive negative whole herd tests and 91 herds dropped out because of inability to comply with the agreed requirements of the program. There were no home-bred reactors born after the start of the program in 253 (47%) herds and of the 522 herds that were tested more than once, there were 319 (61%) herds in which no home-bred reactors were detected after the first year of testing. The number of ELISA positive animals detected at T1 appeared to be only about 26% of the animals from that round that subsequently became positive or developed clinical disease at later test rounds. CONCLUSION: The TCP caused a marked decline in the number of clinical cases, probably because animals in which clinical disease was imminent were detected by testing and removed. A reduction in prevalence of reactors occurred only when most herd members were born after the TCP started. The sensitivity of the ELISA appears to be low based on the large number of reactors that were negative at T1 but were positive at later tests. Low sensitivity of diagnostic tests and the long incubation period of the disease limits meaningful analysis of the program until it has continued for some years. Measures adopted in the TCP have not broken the cycle of infection in many participating herds. It is unsure if this was because of poor compliance with control recommendations or a poor understanding of methods of transmission by scientists. Eradication is not feasible in the short-term.     

Effect of a test and control program for Johne's disease in Victorian beef herds 1992-2002

OBJECTIVE: To report on progress in Johne's disease (JD) control in infected beef herds participating in the Victorian Johne's disease test and control program (TCP). PROCEDURE: Clinical histories and JD testing data recorded by the Department of Primary Industries were analysed for 18 beef herds participating in the TCP. The herds were required to conduct annual whole herd tests with an absorbed ELISA, cull reactors and control the grazing of young cattle to minimise infection. RESULTS: Testing of over 11,000 animals identified 68 reactors giving an average prevalence of reactors at the first whole-herd test round (T1) of 0.77%. There had been 20 clinical cases detected in the 7 years before the TCP started and two cases detected in the 10 years after TCP started. Most reactors and all clinical cases were born before the TCP started. Of 34 reactors necropsied, 25 (74%) were confirmed to have JD by histology or culture of tissues. The modal age of reactors and clinical cases was 5 and 6 years respectively. Six herds completed the program by achieving three successive negative whole herd tests, four herds dropped out and eight continued to test. There were 18 reactors detected at T1 and 33 reactors that were negative at T1 but detected at subsequent tests. CONCLUSION: The TCP was associated with a marked decline in clinical cases. The similar age distributions of clinical cases and reactors probably meant that testing detected animals for which clinical disease was imminent. Whether the measures used in the TCP were adequate to control the disease in beef herds could not be determined because of the long incubation period of the disease. The relatively high proportion of the reactors investigated that were confirmed as infected provided confidence that the test was continuing to operate at a high specificity. If all unconfirmed reactors were presumed to be uninfected, the minimum specificity of the ELISA was 99.83%. The sensitivity of the ELISA appeared to be very low because of the large number of reactors that were negative at T1 but positive at later tests.     

Risk factors for herd-level bovine-tuberculosis seropositivity in transhumant cattle in Uganda

We investigated the prevalence and risk factors to positive herd-level tuberculin reactivity between October 2003 to May 2004 to bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the four transhumant districts of Uganda: three districts (Karamoja region) of nomadic transhumance cattle rearing (30 superherds and 1522 cattle), and one district (Nakasongola) of fixed-transhumance (7 herds and 342 cattle). We used the comparative intradermal skin-test, sampled 50 animals per superherd/herd, and considered herd positive if there was at least one reactor. Of the 30 superherds under nomadic transhumance, 60% (95% CI 41.4, 79) were tuberculin-test positive; of the 7 fixed herds, 14.3% (95% CI −20.7, 49.2) were tuberculin test positive. The true herd prevalence was estimated at 46.6%. Many risk factors were collinear. The final multivariable logistic-regression model included: recent introductions from market (OR = 3.4; 95% CI 1.1, 10.3), drinking water form mud holes during dry season (OR = 49; 95% CI 9.1, 262), and the presence of monkeys (OR = 0.08; 95% CI 0.0, 0.6) or warthogs (OR = 0.1; 95% CI 0.0, 0.3). No association was found between herd size or number of herd contacts with reactors; it was probably masked by the effect of high between-herd interactions. Provision of water from mud holes in dry river beds and introductions of new animals are risk factors that might be targeted to control BTB in transhumance areas.     

Evaluation of a bulk-milk ELISA test for the classification of herd-level bovine leukemia virus status

The results of a commercial bulk-milk enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for herd-level bovine leukemia virus (BLV) status were compared to results obtained from individual agar-gel immunodiffussion (AGID) testing on sampled cattle. A positive herd was defined as a herd having one or more AGID-positive animals. The estimated true herd status was based on the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test and the number of cattle sampled per herd. Ninety-seven herds were used, with a mean of 13 cows sampled per herd. The AGID test indicated an apparent herd prevalence of 70.1%. After accounting for the number of cows sampled and the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test, the estimated true herd prevalence of BLV was 52.3%. The ELISA test identified 79.4% of herds as positive for BLV, and had an apparent sensitivity and specificity of 0.97 and 0.62, respectively. However, after accounting for the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test in individual animals, the specificity of the ELISA test was 0.44. The ELISA test was useful for identifying BLV-negative herds (i.e., ruling out the presence of BLV infection in test negative herds). With the moderately low specificity, herds identified as positive by the ELISA test would require further testing at the individual or herd level to definitively establish their BLV status.     

Prevalence and risk factors associated with bovine viral diarrhea virus infection in dairy herds in Jordan

A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the seroprevalence and to identify risk factors associated with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection in 62 non-vaccinated dairy herds (671 cows) in Jordan between January and June 2007. Information regarding herd management was recorded through a personal interview with farmers. Antibodies against BVDV were detected using an indirect ELISA test. Chi-square analysis and multivariable logistic regression model were used to identify risk factors for BVDV seropositivity. The true prevalence of antibodies against BVDV in individual cows and cattle herds was 31.6% and 80.7%, respectively. The seroprevalence of BVDV in medium and large size herds was significantly higher than that in smaller herds. There was no significant difference in BVD seroprevalence between different age groups. Random-effects logistic regression model revealed two major factors associated with seropositivity to BVDV; exchange of visits between adjacent farm workers and not isolating newly purchased animals before addition to the herd. The seroprevalence of BVDV in cows located in the northern Jordanian governorates was significantly higher than that in other studied governorates. Results of this study indicated that BVDV is highly prevalent in Jordan and BVDV infection could be controlled by livestock-trade control, and applying strict biosecurity measures in the dairy farms.     

Differences in prevalence of tuberculosis in indigenous and crossbred cattle under extensive and intensive management systems in Tanga Region of Tanzania

A cross-sectional study was conducted between May 2003 and January 2004 on 130 households and 655 (246 indigenous and 409 crossbred) cattle to determine the prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and assess risk factors associated with prevalence in smallholder dairy and traditionally managed herds in the Tanga region of North-eastern Tanzania. Random sampling, single intradermal tuberculin (SIT), comparative intradermal tuberculin (SCIT) tests and a questionnaire were used to gather individual animal and herd level information. From 642 animal tested by SIT, 35 (5.4%) were positive reactors for tuberculosis. Out of those 35 bTB positive reactors, eight (1.25%) proved to be positive reactors for tuberculosis upon further testing by SCIT. Based on the SCIT test, individual animal prevalences of bTB in the smallholder dairy and traditionally managed cattle was 2% and 0%, respectively. The corresponding overall herd prevalence was 5.7% and 0%, respectively. In conclusion, bTB prevalence seems low; however, its potential risk to public health is of concern; underscoring the need for further research, active surveillance to better understand the epidemiology of the disease in different cattle production systems in Tanzania.     

Prevalence and associated management factors of Cryptosporidium shedding in 50 Swedish dairy herds

Cryptosporidium parvum is a protozoan parasite causing diarrhoea in young calves. This cross-sectional study was performed to estimate the prevalence of Cryptosporidium infected herds in a sample of Swedish dairy herds and to identify potential risk factors associated with shedding of oocysts. Fifty dairy herds, selected by stratified random sampling, were included. The herds were visited once during the indoor seasons of 2005–2006 and 2006–2007. Faecal samples were collected from 10 calves, 10 young stock and 5 cows in each herd. Clinical observations of sampled animals and environmental status were recorded, and farmers were interviewed about management procedures. Faecal samples were cleaned by sodium chloride flotation and detection of oocysts was made by epifluorescence microscopy. Cryptosporidium parvum-like oocysts were found in 96% of the herds. Prevalence was 52% in calves, 29% in young stock and 5.6% in cows. Three two-day-old calves shed oocysts. Cryptosporidium andersoni was found in seven animals from four different herds. Factors associated with prevalence of shedders among sampled animals in a herd were age at weaning, cleaning of single calf pens, placing of young stock, system for moving young stock, and year of sampling. Factors associated with shedding in calves were age, placing of young stock, routines for moving young stock and time calf stays with the cow. The only significant factor in young stock was age. In cows, number of calves in the herd and type of farming (organic vs. conventional) affected shedding.     

Prevalence of and risk factors for bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) infection in non-vaccinated dairy and dual-purpose cattle herds in Ecuador

A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors associated with bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) infection in non-vaccinated dairy and dual-purpose cattle herds from Ecuador. A total of 2,367 serum samples from 346 herds were collected from June 2008 to February 2009. A questionnaire, which included variables related to cattle, health, management measures, and the environment, was filled out in each herd. Presence of antibodies against BRSV was analyzed using a commercial indirect ELISA test. A logistic regression model was used to determine risk factors associated with BRSV at herd level. The individual seroprevalence against BRSV in non-vaccinated herds in Ecuador was 80.48% [1,905/2,367; 95% confidence interval (CI)?=?78.9-82.1]. The herd prevalence was 91.3% (316/346; 95% CI?=?88.3-94.3), and the intra-herd prevalence ranged between 25% and 100% (mean, 90.47%). The logistic regression model showed that the existence of bordering cattle farms, the dual-purpose farms, and the altitude of the farm (more than 2,338?m above sea level) were risk factors associated with BRSV infection. This is the first study about BRSV prevalence in Ecuador. It shows the wide spread of the BRSV infection in the country. The risk factors found will help to design effective control strategies.     

Herd-level risk factors associated with Leptospira Hardjo seroprevalence in Beef/Suckler herds in the Republic of Ireland

Background

The aim of the present study was to investigate risk factors for herd seropositivity to Leptospira Hardjo in Irish suckler herds. Herds were considered eligible for the study if they were unvaccinated and contained ≥ 9 breeding animals of beef breed which were ≥ 12 months of age. The country was divided into six regions using county boundaries. Herd and individual animal prevalence data were available from the results of a concurrent seroprevalence study. Herds were classified as either "Free from Infection" or "Infected" based on a minimum expected 40% within-herd prevalence.Questionnaires were posted to 320 farmers chosen randomly from 6 regions, encompassing 25 counties, of the Republic of Ireland. The questionnaire was designed to obtain information about vaccination; reproductive disease; breeding herd details; the presence of recognized risk factors from previous studies; and husbandry on each farm. Data collected from 128 eligible herds were subjected to statistical analysis.

Results

Following the use of Pearson''s Chi-Square Test, those variables associated with a herd being "infected" with a significance level of P < 0.2 were considered as candidates for multivariable logistic regression modelling. Breeding herd size was found to be a statistically significant risk factor after multivariable logistic regression. The odds of a herd being positive for leptospiral infection were 5.47 times higher (P = 0.032) in herds with 14 to 23 breeding animals compared with herds with ≤ 13 breeding animals, adjusting for Region, and 7.08 times higher (P = 0.033) in herds with 32.6 to 142 breeding animals.

Conclusions

Breeding herd size was identified as a significant risk factor for leptospiral infection in Irish suckler herds, which was similar to findings of previous studies of leptospirosis in dairy herds.     

Evaluation of an O antigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for screening of milk samples for Salmonella dublin infection in dairy herds.

Levels of antibodies to the O antigens (O:1,9,12) of Salmonella dublin were tested in 1355 serum, 1143 cow milk and 160 bulk milk samples from dairy herds using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In order to define the background reaction, milk samples from all lactating cows and serum samples from 9 animals were collected in each of 20 salmonellosis-free herds located on the island of Bornholm, where cattle salmonellosis has not been reported. Similar samples were collected from all stalled animals in 10 herds with recent (< 6 months) outbreaks of salmonellosis located in Jutland, where salmonella infection is enzootic. Using herd history of salmonellosis, herd location and clinical status of the herds as criteria, the optimal cutoff in the milk ELISA was determined as being at least 5% of the samples having optical density > 0.5, resulting in herd sensitivity of 1.0 and herd specificity of 0.95. While none of the sera in the herds from Bornholm was ELISA positive, 2 herds had a few reactors in the milk ELISA. Using the same cutoff, all but 1 bulk milk sample from 150 herds on Bornholm was ELISA-negative, and all 10 salmonellosis-positive herds from Jutland were ELISA-positive. A significant correlation was found between ELISA reactions in milk and in serum of cows (34% and 32% respectively, rs = 0.69, P < 0.001).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Patterns of delayed detection and persistence of bovine tuberculosis in confirmed and unconfirmed herd breakdowns in cattle and cattle herds in Great Britain

Approximately 1500/6000 cattle farms that were depopulated during the foot and mouth epidemic in GB in 2001 had been repopulated and subjected to two unrestricted (herd considered free from bovine tuberculosis (bTB)) herd tests. Factors associated with herd breakdown(s) (HBD) and individual cattle reactor status at the second test were investigated. There were 96 HBD in total, with a 3-fold increased risk of HBD in herds that had had a HBD at the first test after restocking. Two mixed effect models were used to investigate factors associated with 324/246,060 reactor cattle at the second bTB test; 228 reactors were at confirmed HBD and 96 at unconfirmed HBD; 253 (79%) reactors at the second test were present and test negative at the first test. In confirmed HBD, the odds of cattle reacting were higher if the restocked farm had a history of bTB before 2001 and if the source and restocked farms were high frequency tested (HFT) farms (routine bTB tests at ≥1 per 2 years). Reacting cattle were more likely to have been born on the restocked farm before the first test after FMD and less likely to have been purchased from a low frequency tested (LFT) farm (routine bTB tests at 3-4 year intervals) after the first test compared with a baseline of cattle purchased from a LFT farm before the first test. Unconfirmed HBD at the second test was more likely when the first test was a confirmed HBD and when there was a history of bTB in the restocked farm. In contrast to confirmed HBD, cattle purchased from a LFT farm after the first test were at increased risk of reacting at an unconfirmed HBD at the second test. We conclude that a farm history of bTB suggests persistence of bTB on the farm. Confirmed tests indicate exposure to bTB for some time indicated by the increased risk from HFT source and restocked farms and a farm history of bTB. The risks for reactors are related to the farm and herd and duration of exposure to these risks. Therefore, the spread of bTB to na?ve herds would be reduced if farmers only introduced cattle known not to have been in herds and on farms exposed to bTB. Management of bTB on farms with bTB is complicated because there is undisclosed infection in cattle and environmental contamination.     

Sense and sensitivity--designing surveys based on an imperfect test

Designing a survey to detect the presence of a disease is complicated if the test used to detect the disease has non-perfect sensitivity and specificity. This paper gives two new approximations that simplify such a task. The first gives the cumulative probability distribution of the number of apparently diseased animals detected in the survey and the second gives the probability that no diseased animals are detected if the test used has 100% specificity. Both approximations can be used to determine confidence limits for the true prevalence.

The main purpose of the approximations is to determine the number of animals that need to be tested to be confident that a herd is free of disease, and then to determine the number of herds that need to be tested to demonstrate area freedom. One approach to such an area survey has been to classify each herd as diseased or not based on the number of reactors found in the herd, and then to use the number of herds classified as diseased to determine the area’s status. The paper points out that basing the decision simply on the magnitude of the maximum observed within-herd reactor proportion results in a more accurate survey for the same number of animals and herds tested.