Modelling soil erosion and sediment yield at a catchment scale: the case of Masinga catchment,Kenya

Development of improved soil erosion and sediment yield prediction technology is required to provide catchment stakeholders with the tools they need to evaluate the impact of various management strategies on soil loss and sediment yield in order to plan for the optimal use of the land. In this paper, a newly developed approach is presented to predict the sources of sediment reaching the stream network within Masinga, a large‐scale rural catchment in Kenya. The study applies the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and a developed hillslope sediment delivery distributed (HSDD) model embedded in a geographical information system (GIS). The HSDD model estimates the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) on a cell‐by‐cell basis using the concept of runoff travel time as a function of catchment characteristics. The model performance was verified by comparing predicted and measured plot runoff and sediment yield. The results show a fairly good relationship between predicted and measured sediment yield (R²=0·82). The predicted results show that the developed modelling approach can be used as a major tool to estimate spatial soil erosion and sediment yield at a catchment scale. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF A SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED SOIL EROSION AND SEDIMENT DELIVERY MODEL (WATEM/SEDEM) IN NORTHERN ETHIOPIA

Most regional‐scale soil erosion models are spatially lumped and hence have limited application to practical problems such as the evaluation of the spatial variability of soil erosion and sediment delivery within a catchment. Therefore, the objectives of this study were as follows: (i) to calibrate and assess the performance of a spatially distributed WATEM/SEDEM model in predicting absolute sediment yield and specific sediment yield from 12 catchments in Tigray (Ethiopia) by using two different sediment transport capacity equations (original and modified) and (ii) to assess the performance of WATEM/SEDEM for the identification of critical sediment source areas needed for targeting catchment management. The performance of the two model versions for sediment yield was found promising for the 12 catchments. For both versions, model performance for the nine catchments with limited gully erosion was clearly better than the performance obtained when including the three catchments with significant gully erosion. Moreover, there is no significant difference (alpha 5 per cent) between the performances of the two model versions. Cultivated lands were found to be on average five times more prone to erosion than bush–shrub lands. The predicted soil loss values in most parts of Gindae catchment are generally high as compared with the soil formation rates. This emphasises the importance of implementing appropriate soil and water conservation measures in critical sediment source areas prioritising the steepest part of the catchment (i.e. areas with slope >50 per cent). The applicability of the WATEM/SEDEM model to environments where gully erosion is important requires the incorporation of permanent gully and bank gully erosion in the model structure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

紫色土区小流域侵蚀产沙对水土保持措施的响应

探讨降雨量与水土保持措施对流域水沙关系的影响,对流域水土流失预报和水土保持效益评价具有十分重要的科学意义,但在紫色土区这方面的研究还相当薄弱。以鹤鸣观小流域Ⅱ号支沟实测降雨径流泥沙数据为基础,分析了水土保持措施对流域径流、泥沙及水沙关系的影响。结果表明:流域治理后期,降雨产流量变化率、降雨产沙量变化率均减小,随着降雨的增多,水土保持措施对径流、产沙的影响效应增强;暴雨强度愈小,降雨量愈少,水土保持径流拦蓄作用愈显著;但降雨量愈大,泥沙拦蓄作用愈显著;流域减水量一般在30%~70%,而减沙量都高于90%,减沙量明显高于减水量;由于水土保持综合治理的作用,1989年后的多年平均径流量较1989年前减少33.11%,多年平均产沙量减少90.50%。     

Assessing the potential of changing land use for reducing soil erosion and sediment yield of catchments: a case study in the highlands of northern Ethiopia

Reservoir sedimentation is the most serious threat for water harvesting schemes and hydroelectric power dams in Ethiopia. Designing watershed conservation strategies and management is crucial to reduce the rate of sedimentation. Because different landscape types have varying potentials for enhancing erosion processes, site‐ and process‐specific conservation measures are needed to target an appropriate intervention to the most needed locations. In this study, a GIS‐based distributed soil erosion/deposition model was used to simulate the potential of land‐use and cover (LUC) changes and conservation measures for reducing water induced soil erosion and potential sediment yield for two catchments in northern Ethiopia. LUC change and conservation measures targeted gully and stream buffers, protection of steep slopes and protection of areas with soil loss greater than a given threshold. The results show that land management measures targeted at hot‐spot areas of erosion and gully formation could reduce potential annual sediment yield from catchments by approximately 60% compared with the current losses. The study demonstrates the potential of a GIS‐based LUC‐redesign approach as a tool for optimizing land‐use and management strategies to reduce run‐off and erosion rates in the highlands of northern Ethiopia.     

国内主要流域侵蚀产沙模型评述

流域侵蚀产沙模型是国际土壤侵蚀研究的重点领域之一,国内以往进行了较多研究,建立了许多模型。正确分析和评价这些模型对于合理地使用它们进行流域侵蚀产沙预报和水土保持规划等工作具有重要意义。从研究方法、模型结构、模型中各参数的确定等方面对我国主要流域侵蚀产沙经验模型和具有一定成因的模型进行了分析,并在此基础上对各模型进行了评价。     

Derivation of site-related measures to minimise soil erosion on the watershed scale in the Saxonian loess belt using the model EROSION 3D

The Saxonian loess belt is one of the areas in Germany most endangered by water erosion. As consequence of extreme rainstorms, farmland and adjacent areas, e.g. villages, roads, biotopes and watercourses, are repeatedly damaged. Estimating soil loss is a crucial factor for sustainable land use planning in this region. Since soil erosion measurements are usually conducted at the scale of plots, thereby being both costly as well as time-consuming, erosion models are substantial tools for soil protection policies. This paper summarises and integrates the results of a research project aimed at assessing the present situation as well as that of future landscape planning alternatives, using the physically based EROSION 3D simulation model on a catchment scale. EROSION 3D can estimate the yields of sediment for small watersheds and enables environmental researchers and planners to locate the main areas of soil loss and deposition. Five different scenarios based on past and present land use information as well as future landscape 2 planning alternatives were simulated.The modelling results showed that scenarios based on only one option for minimising soil loss were not sufficiently effective in reducing sediment production. However, the combination of active soil protection measures such as conservation tillage with passive measures like grassed waterways or buffer strips resulted in an adequate soil protection. In contrast to passive protection measures, best management practices like non-tillage systems are commonly used in the Saxonian loess belt already. Thus, the implementation of passive measures is an important future task in land use planning. Simulation models like EROSION 3D can provide the information needed for the adequate localisation and the dimensioning of site-specific measures.     

Monitoring of soil erosion and assessment for contribution of sediments to rivers in a typical watershed of the Upper Yangtze River Basin

An assessment of the effectiveness of soil conservation practices is very important for watershed management, but the measurement over a small area does not necessarily represent the truth over a large area. Monitoring of soil erosion and analysis of sediment delivery were carried out in the Lizixi watershed (which is typical of the Upper Yangtze Basin, China), using remote sensing and a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use and land‐cover maps were prepared by an interpretation of 1986 and 1999 images from SPOT and Landsat TM. Slope‐gradient maps were created from digital elevation model (DEM), while merged images of SPOT and Landsat TM were used to obtain land‐use information. The area of soil erosion was classified by an integration of slope gradients, land‐use types and vegetation cover rates, and soil erosion rates and their changes were calculated in a grid‐based analysis using an Erdas GIS. The change in sediment delivery ratio was estimated based on the changes in soil erosion rates from both monitoring and the truth survey. There was a reduction in soil erosion rate of 4·22 per cent during a 13‐year period after soil conservation practices were adopted in the Lizixi watershed. The amount of sediments transported into rivers has decreased by 51·08 per cent during the same period due to an integrated application of biological and engineering measures. The comparison of soil erosion severity between pre‐conservation and post‐conservation revealed that soil loss has been obviously diminished and the measures were quite effective. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of Land Use Change and Dam Construction on Soil Erosion and Sediment Yield in the Black Soil Region,Northeastern China

Since the 1960s, the implemented soil conservation measures on steep slopes and the densely planted shelterbelts as well as the constructed reservoirs and ponds in Baiquan County, northeastern China have dramatically altered the landscape and would greatly influence soil erosion and sediment yield (SY ). However, how these land use changes and the constructed dams affected soil erosion and SY still remained unclear. A physically distributed soil erosion model WaTEM/SEDEM that has been calibrated and validated using 25 reservoir SY s in the study area was applied using nine land use scenarios (land uses in 1954, 1975 and 2010, each with 8, 32 and without dams) to assess their impacts on sediment delivery at the Shuangyang catchment (915 km²). The results show that land use changes as well as the increased dam numbers progressively decreased catchment sediment delivery and the impact of dams on sediment delivery was more efficient under the intensified land use condition (1954 land use without reservoirs). With respect to 1954 land use without dams, current land use condition (2010 land use with 32 dams) was simulated to decrease SY by 61·8%. Soil conservation measures (terrace and contour tillage as well as shelterbelts) on the slopes greatly influenced SY and over 80% of the reduced SY were caused by land use changes. This study indicates that soil conservation measures are sustainable sediment control measures for the black soil region because the accumulation of sediment in dams causes shortening of the useful life in reservoirs and ponds and implies increasing financial costs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An integrated watershed modelling framework to explore the covariation between sediment connectivity and soil erosion

Quantitative identification of the covariation between sediment connectivity and soil erosion can contribute to provide the key information for watershed sediment management. However, this covariation and its spatiotemporal response mechanisms are still unclear, especially whether this covariation can be used as a basis for identifying critical source areas of sediment in large-scale ecological restored watersheds. In this study, an integrated methodology framework by the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), index of connectivity (IC) and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) was proposed to visually assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of erosion and sediment yield processes in the Yanhe Watershed with large-scale ecological restoration from 1985 to 2020 and to identify the covariation between sediment connectivity and erosion in subbasins. The soil erosion estimated by RUSLE has decreased by over 80% since 1985 owing to increased vegetation cover and the effective implementation of soil conservation measures, but the upper reaches still have high erosion intensity due to differences in specific controlling factors such as topographic conditions and land cover, requiring focused soil conservation practice. The IC results showed that as the vegetation restoration and soil conservation measures in the Yanhe Watershed varied from year to year, their spatial and temporal patterns had a strong influence on the distribution of sediment connectivity, and some local areas in the middle reaches showed local minima of IC in 1995, 1998 and 2010 mainly due to the implementation of long-term ecological restoration project. The developed IC-Erosion maps indicated that areas with high connectivity but low erosion accounted for over 60% of the total watershed area from 1985 to 1999, demonstrating a reverse correlation between sediment connectivity and erosion. Meanwhile, over 40% of the erosion occurred in a few areas (approximately 20%) with high connectivity and high erosion from 2000 to 2004, which can be characterized as the critical areas of erosion. The methods and results of this study provide ideas for separately defining both erosion and connectivity and quantifying bi-variable erosion–connectivity classification, which can be easily viewed on a scatterplot.     

Soil erosion assessment of Lake Alemaya catchment,Ethiopia

Land degradation due to soil erosion is the major problem facing Ethiopia today. In the Lake Alemaya catchment soil erosion is caused by the intense rainfall, steep topography, and poor vegetation cover coupled with cultivation of steep lands, and inadequate conservation practices. Sediment from the catchment has affected the storage capacity of Lake Alemaya. This study has integrated the Agricultural Non‐point Source Pollution Model (AGNPS) and the technique of the Gographic Information System (GIS) to quantify soil erosion in the Lake Alemaya catchment. After application of the AGNPS, it appears that 66 per cent of the catchment has a soil erosion rate of 10 to more than 80 t ha⁻¹ y⁻¹. The annual soil loss is estimated at 31 t ha⁻¹, which is more than the permissible value of 1–16 t ha⁻¹ for different agro‐ecological zones of Ethiopia. The sediment yield of the catchment is about 10 148 ton with a delivery ratio of 6·82 per cent. Therefore, an effective management plan is needed for the conservation and rehabilitation of the catchment and to maintain the storage capacity of Lake Alemaya. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil Conservation Through Sediment Trapping: A Review

Preventing the off‐site effects of soil erosion is an essential part of good catchment management. Most efforts are in the form of on‐site soil and water conservation measures. However, sediment trapping can be an alternative (additional) measure to prevent the negative off‐site effects of soil erosion. Therefore, not all efforts should focus solely on on‐site soil conservation but also on the safe routing of sediment‐laden flows and on creating sites and conditions where sediment can be trapped. Sediment trapping can be applied on‐site and off‐site and involves both vegetative and structural measures. This paper provides an extensive review of scientific journal articles, case studies and other reports that have assessed soil conservation efforts and the sediment trapping efficacy (STE) of vegetative and structural measures. The review is further illustrated through participatory field observation and stakeholders' interview. Vegetation type and integration of two or more measures are important factors influencing STE. In this review, the STE of most measures was evaluated either individually or in such combinations. In real landscape situations, it is not only important to select the most efficient erosion control measures but also to determine their optimum location in the catchment. Hence, there is a need for research that shows a more integrated determination of STE at catchment scale. If integrated measures are implemented at the most appropriate spatial locations within a catchment where they can disconnect landscape units from each other, they will decrease runoff velocity and sediment transport and, subsequently, reduce downstream flooding and sedimentation problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Cs measurements to validate the application of the AGNPS and ANSWERS erosion and sediment yield models in two small Devon catchments

Distributed erosion and sediment yield models are being increasingly used for predicting soil erosion and sediment yields in agricultural catchments. In most applications, validation of such models has commonly been restricted to comparison of the predicted and measured sediment output from a catchment, because spatially distributed information on rates and patterns of soil redistribution within the catchment has been lacking. However, such spatially distributed data are needed for rigorous model testing, in order to validate the internal functioning of a model and its applicability at different spatial scales. The study reported in this paper uses two approaches to test the performance of the agricultural non-point source pollution (AGNPS) and areal non-point source watershed environmental response simulation (ANSWERS) erosion and sediment yield models in two small catchments in Devon, UK. These involve, firstly, comparison of observed and predicted runoff and sediment output data for individual storm events monitored at the basin outlets and, secondly, information on the spatial pattern of soil redistribution within the catchments derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements. The results obtained indicate that catchment outputs simulated by both models are reasonably consistent with the recorded values, although the AGNPS model appears to provide closer agreement between observed and predicted values. However, the spatial patterns of soil redistribution and the sediment delivery ratios predicted for the two catchments by the AGNPS and ANSWERS models differ significantly. Comparison of the catchment sediment delivery ratios and the pattern of soil redistribution in individual fields predicted by the models with equivalent information derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements indicates that the AGNPS model provides more meaningful predictions of erosion and sediment yield under UK conditions than the ANSWERS model and emphasises the importance of using information on both catchment output and sediment redistribution within the catchment for model validation.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区不同土地利用方式下小流域侵蚀产沙特征

为进一步优化和合理配置水土保持措施,以黄土丘陵沟壑区3个不同土地利用方式下的坝控小流域为例,基于人工探槽取样、淤积层次甄别及与产流降雨事件的对应关系,结合1∶10 000早期地形图与全站仪测量,拟合库容曲线来估算淤地坝泥沙淤积量,进而反演坝控流域的产沙模数变化特征。结果表明:(1)延河马家沟3个不同土地利用方式下的洞儿沟、阎桥和芦渠坝控小流域,自建坝至2016年的多年平均淤积量分别为2 748.80,4 634.31,3 141.17 t;(2)洞儿沟、阎桥和芦渠流域多年平均产沙模数分别为2 432.56,3 131.29,1 794.95 t/(km~2·a),依次属于轻度、中度和轻度侵蚀;不同土地利用方式下坝控小流域的最小产沙降雨量均20 mm以上;(3)不同的土地利用方式对小流域侵蚀产沙影响显著,人类活动明显的阎桥流域多年平均产沙模数大于以林草地为主的洞儿沟流域,而以林地和梯田为主的芦渠流域多年平均产沙模数最小。由此可见,在黄土丘陵沟壑区合理配置不同的水土保持措施,是减少小流域侵蚀产沙的有效途径。     

A GIS based approach to modelling the effects of land-use change on soil erosion in New Zealand

Abstract. The problem of soil erosion is particularly evident in New Zealand, given the combination of coarse-textured soils, steep relief, high rainfall, and intensification of agriculture. A study was undertaken to assess the effects of land use change on soil erosion and sediment transport for the Ngongotaha catchment in New Zealand's North Island, using a GIS based decision support and modelling system. Model simulations considered the effect of increased catchment area under deer farming and forestry on the amount of sediment delivered to the catchment outlet, averaged over a period of six years. The simulations predicted that sediment loss from land under deer farming was considerably greater than from land under other livestock or forestry. Further model simulations testing best management practices demonstrated that sediment yield could be halved if deer farming was restricted to slopes under 20%.     

红壤坡地柑桔园长期试验下水沙动态变化特征分析

以红壤清耕柑桔园坡地为对象,研究其长期定位试验下2001—2015年径流和泥沙流失量的动态变化过程以及坡面水沙与降雨关系的变异特征。结果表明:幼树期是红壤清耕柑桔园水土保持防治的关键期,该时期的土壤侵蚀程度达到极强烈,而盛果期侵蚀强度可降低到区域土壤容许流失量以下。柑桔树从幼树期、初果期到盛果期,坡面年径流量和土壤侵蚀模数均呈显著幂函数下降趋势,在盛果期趋于稳定。果树坡面水沙与降雨的关系均在第4年发生了突变,而裸露坡面水沙与降雨关系没有发生突变。柑桔园各年的减沙效益均大于减水效益,减流、减沙效益均随着时间表现出先快速增加后维持相对稳定的指数函数关系,这表明免耕果树的减流、减沙效益具有很大的时间变异性,不仅可通过减水来减沙,而且可通过改变水沙关系来减沙。研究结果将为果园水土保持措施效益评估提供依据,为水土保持措施的合理配置提供参考。     

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Forest Restoration and Check‐Dams to Reduce Catchment Sediment Yield

Reforestations and check‐dams are two commonly used measures to reduce soil erosion rates and sediment export from highly eroding catchments. Here, we evaluated the impact of the construction of 94 check‐dams and land use changes (caused by agricultural abandonment and reforestations) on sediment yield in the Upper Taibilla catchment (320 km², SE Spain) from 1956 to 2000. We combined land use change analysis, field surveys, and application of the WaTEM‐SEDEM erosion and sediment yield prediction model for nine scenarios combining land use maps (1956, 1987, and 2000) and different numbers of check‐dams throughout the catchment. Land use changes alone reduced sediment yield up to 14%, but in combination with check‐dams, the reduction in sediment yield reached 44 ± 6%. Sediment yield reduction was higher in smaller sub‐catchments, with, on average, a higher transport capacity than larger catchments, illustrating the scale dependency of human impacts on sediment fluxes and the buffer capacity of larger catchments. From an economical perspective, the construction of check‐dams was estimated to be more expensive than reforestation programs in the studied catchment, while adding more check‐dams did not always result in a proportional reduction of sediment yield. This indicates that optimizing check‐dam distribution relative to land use patterns is crucial to decrease catchment sediment yield. Check‐dams have a large and instantaneous impact on sediment yield over a restricted time period, while reforestations have important sustained effects at a lower economic cost. These contrasting effects require a careful evaluation for optimal effective catchment management. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水蚀流域土地覆被格局土壤保持能力空间分布式评价

以丹江口水库以上的汉江流域为例,利用植被覆盖度、坡度加权的上游有效汇流面积空间分布型式和驱动-阻力耦合空间分布拟合函数2个指标,评价水蚀流域土地覆被格局土壤保持能力,并基于研究区14个子流域水文站泥沙资料进行验证.结果表明：汉江干流沿岸河谷盆地和丹江口水库周边丘陵区子流域是研究区城镇和农田的主要分布区,植被覆盖度低,距离汉江较近,当前覆被格局土壤保持能力相对较低,是河流泥沙的主要直接来源地;有效汇流面积空间分布型式和驱动-阻力耦合空间分布拟合函数能有效反映流域泥沙输出,可作为评价流域土地覆被格局土壤保持能力的指标.该评价方法基于土地覆被格局与土壤侵蚀的作用机制,简单易行,可为评价土地覆被格局土壤保持能力、土地覆被格局变化的土壤侵蚀效应提供一种简捷的途径.     

GIS-based sediment assessment tool

Accelerated soil erosion is a worldwide problem because of its economic and environmental impacts. To effectively estimate soil erosion and to establish soil erosion management plans, many computer models have been developed and used. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) has been used in many countries, and input parameter data for RUSLE have been well established over the years. However, RUSLE cannot be used to estimate the sediment yield for a watershed. Thus, the GIS-based Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion Control (SATEEC) was developed to estimate soil loss and sediment yield for any location within a watershed using RUSLE and a spatially distributed sediment delivery ratio. SATEEC was enhanced in this study by developing new modules to: 1) simulate the effects of sediment retention basins on the receiving water bodies, 2) estimate the sediment yield from a single storm event, and 3) prepare input parameters for the Web-based sediment decision support system using a GIS interface. The enhanced SATEEC system was applied to the study watershed to demonstrate how the enhanced system can be effectively used for soil erosion control. All the procedures are fully automated with Avenue, CGI, and database programming; thus the enhanced SATEEC system does not require experienced GIS users to operate the system. This easy-to-operate SATEEC system can be used to identify areas vulnerable to soil loss and to develop efficient soil erosion management plans.     

Assessing and mitigating the effects of agricultural soil erosion on roadside ditches

Purpose

Roadside ditches line more than 6.3 million km of roadways in the USA, dissecting the natural topography and altering the flow of runoff from the catchments that drain into them. In agricultural regions, more than 30% of a watershed may directly drain into the roadside ditch system. Quantifying soil erosion and sediment export from agricultural watersheds is a crucial component when considering long-term soil sustainability.

Materials and methods

Our study evaluated the relation of catchment soil erosion and ditch sedimentation at six representative roadside ditches in Lime Creek watershed (eastern Iowa) and quantified the effectiveness of possible catchment conservation practices to reduce soil erosion and ditch sedimentation.

Results and discussion

Study results provide clear evidence linking roadside ditches to the agricultural catchments that drain into them. Among the six ditch sites, catchment erosion was found to be inversely related to sediment storage within the ditch due to erosive power of water entering the ditches from their basins. Of four catchment scenarios to reduce soil erosion, no-till with cover and graded terrace did not require land to be taken out of production and provided the most significant reductions in catchment erosion rates.

Conclusions

Results indicated that reducing nutrient and sediment loads to ditches by incorporating in-field conservation practices in ditch catchments may be more economical and environmentally sustainable than current management practices for both farmers and roadway managers because they trap detached soil sediments before they enter the ditch.

     

Application of catchment scale sediment delivery model INCA-Sed to four small study catchments in Finland

The novel catchment scale erosion and sediment delivery model INCA-Sed was applied to four small study catchments in Finland. Three of these, the Mustajoki, Haarajoki and Luhdanjoki, are headwater catchments located in central Finland. The associated rivers have differing morphological characteristics varying from a ditch to a small river. Soil textures in the area are derived from moraine deposits and are largely sand and gravel. The Mustajoki and Haarajoki catchments are forested and only 10% of the area is under cultivation. In the Luhdanjoki catchment agricultural fields cover 40% of the area. The fourth study site, the Savijoki catchment, represents an intensively cultivated area in south-western Finland. Cultivated fields cover 40% of the catchment area, and they are located on clay soils along the river. The INCA-Sed model was able to capture both the correct magnitude and seasonal behaviour of suspended sediment concentrations in the rivers, as well as the correct magnitude of the sediment load derived from different land use classes. Small differences in river morphology and soil textures between the catchments have a significant influence on suspended sediment concentration in the rivers. Correct timing of suspended sediment concentration peaks is not, however, captured by the INCA-Sed model, which may be due to the stochastic nature of erosion and delivery processes at the catchment scale which are not taken into account in the parameter values used in the modelling. Parameter values were estimated from previous researches based on average process loads. The INCA-Sed model was, however, generally found to be a suitable tool for evaluating effects of land use change on erosion and sediment delivery in Finland as it correctly reproduces spatial and seasonal variations in sediment delivery, in addition to annual averages with spatial and temporal variations.