New evidence on the state of stress of the san andreas fault system

Contemporary in situ tectonic stress indicators along the San Andreas fault system in central California show northeast-directed horizontal compression that is nearly perpendicular to the strike of the fault. Such compression explains recent uplift of the Coast Ranges and the numerous active reverse faults and folds that trend nearly parallel to the San Andreas and that are otherwise unexplainable in terms of strike-slip deformation. Fault-normal crustal compression in central California is proposed to result from the extremely low shear strength of the San Andreas and the slightly convergent relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Preliminary in situ stress data from the Cajon Pass scientific drill hole (located 3.6 kilometers northeast of the San Andreas in southern California near San Bernardino, California) are also consistent with a weak fault, as they show no right-lateral shear stress at approximately 2-kilometer depth on planes parallel to the San Andreas fault.     

Change in failure stress on the southern san andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 landers earthquake

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.     

San andreas fault zone head waves near parkfield, california

Microearthquake seismograms from the borehole seismic network on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, provide three lines of evidence that first P arrivals are "head" waves refracted along the cross-fault material contrast. First, the travel time difference between these arrivals and secondary phases identified as direct P waves scales linearly with the source-receiver distance. Second, these arrivals have the emergent wave character associated in theory and practice with refracted head waves instead of the sharp first breaks associated with direct P arrivals. Third, the first motion polarities of the emergent arrivals are reversed from those of the direct P waves as predicted by the theory of fault zone head waves for slip on the San Andreas fault. The presence of fault zone head waves in local seismic network data may help account for scatter in earthquake locations and source mechanisms. The fault zone head waves indicate that the velocity contrast across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield is approximately 4 percent. Further studies of these waves may provide a way of assessing changes in the physical state of the fault system.     

Strain on the san andreas fault near palmdale, california: rapid, aseismic change

Frequently repeated strain measurements near Palmdale, California, during the period from 1971 through 1980 indicate that, in addition to a uniform accumulation of right-lateral shear strain (engineering shear, 0.35 microradian per year) across the San Andreas fault, a 1-microstrain contraction perpendicular to the fault that accumulated gradually during the interval 1974 through 1978 was aseismically released between February and November 1979. Subsequently (November 1979 to March 1980), about half of the contraction was recovered. This sequence of strain changes can be explained in terms of south-southwestward migration of a slip event consisting of the south-southwestward movement of the upper crust on a horizontal detachment surface at a depth of 10 to 30 kilometers. The large strain change in 1979 corresponds to the passage of the slip event beneath the San Andreas fault.     

Slip partitioning by elastoplastic propagation of oblique slip at depth

Oblique motion along tectonic boundaries is commonly partitioned into slip on faults with different senses of motion. The origin of slip partitioning is important to structural geology, tectonophysics, and earthquake mechanics. Partitioning can be explained by the upward elastoplastic propagation of oblique slip from a fault or shear zone at depth. The strain field ahead of the propagating fault separates into zones of predominantly normal, reverse, and strike-slip faulting. The model successfully predicts the distribution of fault types along parts of the San Andreas and Haiyuan faults.     

Evidence for 115 kilometers of right slip on the san gregorio-hosgri fault trend

The San Gregorio-Hosgri fault trend is a component of the San Andreas fault system on which there may have been about 115 kilometers of post-early Miocene right-lateral strike slip. If so, right slip on the San Andreas and San Gregorio-Hosgri faults accounts for most of the movement between the Pacific and North American plates since mid-Miocene time. Furthermore, the magnitude of right slip on a Paleogene proto-San Andreas fault inferred from the present distribution of granitic basement is reduced considerably when Neogene-Recent San Gregorio-Hosgri right slip is taken into account.     

Episodic strain accumulation in southern california

Reexamination of horizontal geodetic data in the region of recently discovered aseismic uplift has demonstrated that equally unusual horizontal crustal deformation accompanied the development of the uplift. During this time interval compressive strains were oriented roughly normal to the San Andreas fault, suggesting that the uplift produced little shear strain accumulation across this fault. On the other hand, the orientation of the anomalous shear straining is consistent with strain accumulation across northdipping range-front thrusts like the San Fernando fault. Accordingly, the horizontal and vertical crustal deformation disclosed by geodetic observation is interpreted as a short epoch of rapid strain accumulation on these frontal faults. If this interpretation is correct, thrust-type earthquakes will eventually release the accumulated strains, but the geodetic data examined here cannot be used to estimate when these events might occur. However, observation of an unusual sequence of tilts prior to 1971 on a level line lying to the north of the magnitude 6.4 San Fernando earthquake offers some promise for precursor monitoring. The data are adequately explained by a simple model of up-dip aseismic slip propagation toward the 1971 epicentral region. These observations and the simple model that accounts for them suggest a conceptually straightforward monitoring scheme to search for similar uplift and tilt precursors within the uplifted region. Such premonitory effects could be detected by a combination of frequenlty repeated short (30 to 70 km in length) level line measurements, precise gravity traverses, and continuously recording gravimeters sited to the north of the active frontal thrust faults. Once identified, such precursors could be closely followed in space and time, and might then provide effective warnings of impending potentially destructive earth-quakes.     

Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes along the san andreas fault: evidence from trees

Old trees growing along the San Andreas fault near Wrightwood, California, record in their annual ring-width patterns the effects of a major earthquake in the fall or winter of 1812 to 1813. Paleoseismic data and historical information indicate that this event was the "San Juan Capistrano" earthquake of 8 December 1812, with a magnitude of 7.5. The discovery that at least 12 kilometers of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault ruptured in 1812, only 44 years before the great January 1857 rupture, demonstrates that intervals between large earthquakes on this part of the fault are highly variable. This variability increases the uncertainty of forecasting destructive earthquakes on the basis of past behavior and accentuates the need for a more fundamental knowledge of San Andreas fault dynamics.     

Fault zone connectivity: slip rates on faults in the san francisco bay area, california

The slip rate of a fault segment is related to the length of the fault zone of which it is part. In turn, the slip rate of a fault zone is related to its connectivity with adjoining or contiguous fault zones. The observed variation in slip rate on fault segments in the San Francisco Bay area in California is consistent with connectivity between the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas fault zones. Slip rates on the southern Hayward fault taper northward from a maximum of more than 10 millimeters per year and are sensitive to the active length of the Maacama fault.     

Evolution of the northern santa cruz mountains by advection of crust past a san andreas fault bend

The late Quaternary marine terraces near Santa Cruz, California, reflect uplift associated with the nearby restraining bend on the San Andreas fault. Excellent correspondence of the coseismic vertical displacement field caused by the 17 October 1989 magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake and the present elevations of these terraces allows calculation of maximum long-term uplift rates 1 to 2 kilometers west of the San Andreas fault of 0.8 millimeters per year. Over several million years, this uplift, in concert with the right lateral translation of the resulting topography, and with continual attack by geomorphic processes, can account for the general topography of the northern Santa Cruz Mountains.     

Variations in strength and slip rate along the san andreas fault system

Convergence across the San Andreas fault (SAF) system is partitioned between strike-slip motion on the vertical SAF and oblique-slip motion on parallel dip-slip faults, as illustrated by the recent magnitude M(s) = 6.0 Palm Springs, M(s) = 6.7 Coalinga, and M(s) = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquakes. If the partitioning of slip minimizes the work done against friction, the direction of slip during these recent earthquakes depends primarily on fault dip and indicates that the normal stress coefficient and frictional coefficient (micro) vary among the faults. Additionally, accounting for the active dip-slip faults reduces estimates of fault slip rates along the vertical trace of the SAF by about 50 percent in the Loma Prieta and 100 percent in the North Palm Springs segments.     

A look inside the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield through vertical seismic profiling

The San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth pilot hole is located on the southwestern side of the Parkfield San Andreas fault. This observatory includes a vertical seismic profiling (VSP) array. VSP seismograms from nearby microearthquakes contain signals between the P and S waves. These signals may be P and S waves scattered by the local geologic structure. The collected scattering points form planar surfaces that we interpret as the San Andreas fault and four other secondary faults. The scattering process includes conversions between P and S waves, the strengths of which suggest large contrasts in material properties, possibly indicating the presence of cracks or fluids.     

Observations of strain accumulation across the san andreas fault near palmdale, california, with a two-color geodimeter

Two-color laser ranging measurements during a 15-month period over a geodetic network spanning the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California, indicate that the crust expands and contracts aseismically in episodes as short as 2 weeks. Shear strain parallel to the fault has accumulated monotonically since November 1980, but at a variable rate. Improvements in measurement precision and temporal resolution over those of previous geodetic studies near Palmdale have resulted in the definition of a time history of crustal deformation that is much more complex than formerly realized.     

Local geomagnetic events associated with displacements on the san andreas fault

The piezomagnetic properties of rock suggest that a change in subsurface stress will manifest itself as a change in the magnetic susceptibility and remanent magnetization and hence the local geomagnetic field. A differential array of magnetometers has been operating since late 1965 on the San Andreas fault in the search for piezomagnetic signals under conditions involving active fault stress. Local changes in the geomagnetic field have been observed near Hollister, California, some tens of hours preceding the onset of abrupt creep displacement on the San Andreas fault.     

Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude 相似文献   

Postseismic relaxation along the San Andreas fault at Parkfield from continuous seismological observations

Seismic velocity changes and nonvolcanic tremor activity in the Parkfield area in California reveal that large earthquakes induce long-term perturbations of crustal properties in the San Andreas fault zone. The 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes both reduced seismic velocities that were measured from correlations of the ambient seismic noise and induced an increased nonvolcanic tremor activity along the San Andreas fault. After the Parkfield earthquake, velocity reduction and nonvolcanic tremor activity remained elevated for more than 3 years and decayed over time, similarly to afterslip derived from GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements. These observations suggest that the seismic velocity changes are related to co-seismic damage in the shallow layers and to deep co-seismic stress change and postseismic stress relaxation within the San Andreas fault zone.     

Periodic pulsing of characteristic microearthquakes on the San Andreas fault

Deep fault slip information from characteristically repeating microearthquakes reveals previously unrecognized patterns of extensive, large-amplitude, long-duration, quasiperiodic repetition of aseismic events along much of a 175-kilometer segment of the central San Andreas fault. Pulsing occurs both in conjunction with and independent of transient slip from larger earthquakes. It extends to depths of approximately 10 to 11 kilometers but may be deeper, and it may be related to similar phenomena occurring in subduction zones. Over much of the study area, pulse onset periods also show a higher probability of larger earthquakes, which may provide useful information for earthquake forecasting.     

Stress diffusion along the san andreas fault at parkfield, california

Beginning in January 1990, the epicenters of microearthquakes associated with a 12-month increase in seismicity near Parkfield, California, moved northwest to southeast along the San Andreas fault. During this sequence of events, the locally variable rate of cumulative seismic moment increased. This increase implies a local increase in fault slip. These data suggest that a southeastwardly diffusing stress front propagated along the San Andreas fault at a speed of 30 to 50 kilometers per year. Evidently, this front did not load the Parkfield asperities fast enough to produce a moderate earthquake; however, a future front might do so.     

Slip deficit on the san andreas fault at parkfield, california, as revealed by inversion of geodetic data

A network of geodetic lines spanning the San Andreas fault near the rupture zone of the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (magnitude M = 6) has been repeatedly surveyed since 1959. In the study reported here the average rates of line-length change since 1966 were inverted to determine the distribution of interseismic slip rate on the fault. These results indicate that the Parkfield rupture surface has not slipped significantly since 1966. Comparison of the geodetically determined seismic moment of the 1966 earthquake with the interseismic slip-deficit rate suggests that the strain released by the latest shock will most likely be restored between 1984 and 1989, although this may not occur until 1995. These results lend independent support to the earlier forecast of an M = 6 earthquake near Parkfield within 5 years of 1988.     

Forecasting southern california earthquakes

Since 1978 and 1979, California has had a significantly higher frequency of moderate to large earthquakes than in the preceding 25 years. In the past such periods have also been associated with major destructive earthquakes, of magnitude 7 or greater, and the annual probability of occurrence of such an event is now 13 percent in California. The increase in seismicity is associated with a marked deviation in the pattern of strain accumulation, a correlation that is physically plausible. Although great earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7.5) are too infrequent to have clear associations with any pattern of seismicity that is now observed, the San Andreas fault in southern California has accumulated sufficient potential displacement since the last rupture in 1857 to generate a great earthquake along part or all of its length.