A model of solar luminosity modulation by magnetic activity between 1954 and 1984

A simple model based on the changes in excess radiation from bright magnetic faculae and on changes in reduced radiation from dark spots is remarkably successful in matching the slow variations of total solar irradiance measured simultaneously by the ERB and ACRIM satellite radiometers between 1981 and 1984. This model was extended back to 1954 to reconstruct the modulation of irradiance by magnetic activity during the past three 11-year solar cycles. The model predicts that the sun is consistently brighter at activity maximum than at minimum. The 0.07 percent brightening at the peak of the last cycle in 1980 was more pronounced than the brightenings found for either of the two previous cycles, even though cycle 19, which peaked around 1957, had the largest sunspot number amplitude in the history of reliable sunspot records.     

Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate

Results from a global climate model including an interactive parameterization of stratospheric chemistry show how upper stratospheric ozone changes may amplify observed, 11-year solar cycle irradiance changes to affect climate. In the model, circulation changes initially induced in the stratosphere subsequently penetrate into the troposphere, demonstrating the importance of the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. The model reproduces many observed 11-year oscillations, including the relatively long record of geopotential height variations; hence, it implies that these oscillations are likely driven, at least in part, by solar variability.     

Contribution of Ultraviolet Irradiance Variations to Changes in the Sun's Total Irradiance

The sun's total irradiance decreased from 1980 to mid-1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and has recently begun to increase. This time interval covered the decrease in solar activity from the maximum of solar cycle 21 to solar minimum and the onset of cycle 22. The sun's ultraviolet irradiance also decreased during the descending phase of cycle 21 and, like the total irradiance, is now increasing concurrently with the increase in cycle 22 activity. Although only 1 percent of the sun's energy is emitted at ultraviolet wavelengths between 200 and 300 nanometers, the decrease in this radiation from 1 July 1981 to 30 June 1985 accounted for 19 percent of the decrease in the total irradiance over the same period.     

Observations of solar irradiance variability

High-precision measurements of total solar irradiance, made by the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor on the Solar Maximum Mission satellite, show the irradiance to have been variable throughout the first 153 days of observations. The corrected data resolve orbit-to-orbit variations with uncertainties as small as 0.001 percent. Irradiance fluctuations are typical of a band-limited noise spectrum with high-frequency cutoff near 0.15 day(-1) their amplitudes about the mean value of 1368.31 watts per square meter approach +/- 0.05 percent. Two large decreases in irrradiance of up to 0.2 percent lasting about 1 week are highly correlated with the development of sunspot groups. The magnitude and time scale of the irradiance variability suggest that considerable energy storage occurs within the convection zone in solar active regions.     

Observations of Time Variation in the Sun's Rotation

Observations of solar p-mode frequency splittings obtained at Big Bear Solar Observatory in 1986 and during 1988-90 reveal small ( approximately 1 percent) changes in the sun's subsurface angular velocity with solar cycle. An asymptotic inversion of the splitting data yields the latitude dependence of the rotation rate and shows that the largest changes in the angular velocity, approximately 4 nanohertz, occurred between 1986 and the later years, at high ( approximately 60 degrees ) solar latitudes. Earlier helioseismic observations suggest that solar cycle changes in the ratio of magnetic to turbulent pressure in the solar convection zone are large enough to account for the magnitude of the observed angular velocity variations but a detailed model of the phenomenon does not exist.     

Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate

It has recently been suggested that the solar irradiance has varied in phase with the 80- to 90-year period represented by the envelope of the 11-year sunspot cycle and that this variation is causing a significant part of the changes in the global temperature. This interpretation has been criticized for statistical reasons and because there are no observations that indicate significant changes in the solar irradiance. A set of data that supports the suggestion of a direct influence of solar activity on global climate is the variation of the solar cycle length. This record closely matches the long-term variations of the Northern Hemisphere land air temperature during the past 130 years.     

Cyclic variation and solar forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan subarctic

High-resolution analyses of lake sediment from southwestern Alaska reveal cyclic variations in climate and ecosystems during the Holocene. These variations occurred with periodicities similar to those of solar activity and appear to be coherent with time series of the cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be as well as North Atlantic drift ice. Our results imply that small variations in solar irradiance induced pronounced cyclic changes in northern high-latitude environments. They also provide evidence that centennial-scale shifts in the Holocene climate were similar between the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, possibly because of Sun-ocean-climate linkages.     

Spectrum line intensity as a surrogate for solar irradiance variations

Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) solar constant measurements from 1980 to 1986 are compared with ground-based, irradiance spectrophotometry of selected Fraunhofer lines. Both data sets were identically sampled and smoothed with an 85-day running mean, and the ACRIM total solar irradiance (S) values were corrected for sunspot blocking (S(c)). The strength of the mid-photospheric manganese 539.4-nanometer line tracks almost perfectly with ACRIM S(e), Other spectral features formed high in the photosphere and chromosphere also track well. These comparisons independently confirm the variability in the ACRIM S(e), signal, indicate that the source of irradiance is faculae, and indicate that ACRIM S(e), follows the 11-year activity cycle.     

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.     

The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate

A general circulation model that simulated changes in solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone was used to investigate the response of the atmosphere to the 11-year solar activity cycle. At solar maximum, a warming of the summer stratosphere was found to strengthen easterly winds, which penetrated into the equatorial upper troposphere, causing poleward shifts in the positions of the subtropical westerly jets, broadening of the tropical Hadley circulations, and poleward shifts of the storm tracks. These effects are similar to, although generally smaller in magnitude than, those observed in nature. A simulation in which only solar irradiance was changed showed a much weaker response.     

The polar ionosphere of venus near the terminator from early pioneer venus orbiter radio occultations

Fourteen profiles of electron density in the ionosphere of Venus were obtainecd by the dual-frequency radio occulation method with the Pioneer Venus orbiter between 5 and 30 December 1978. The solar zenith angles for these measurements were between about 85 degrees and 92 degrees , and the latitudes ranged from about 81 degrees to 88 degrees (ecliptic north). In addition to the expected decreasein peak electron density from about 1.5 x 10(3) to 0.5 x 10(3) per cubic centimeter with increasing solar zenith angle, a region of almost constant electron density above about 250 kilometers was observed. The ionopause height varies from about 300 to 700 kilometers and seems to be influenced by diurnal changes in solar wind conditions. The structures of the profiles are consistent with models in which O(2)(+) dominates near the ionization peak and is replaced by O(+) at higher altitudes.     

Strong association between west african rainfall and u.s. Landfall of intense hurricanes

Intense hurricanes occurred much more frequently during the period spanning the late 1940s through the late 1960s than during the 1970s and 1980s, except for 1988 and 1989. Seasonal and multidecadal variations of intense hurricane activity are closely linked to seasonal and multidecadal variations of summer rainfall amounts in the Western Sahel region of West Africa. The multidecadal nature of West African precipitation variations and their association with variations of intense Atlantic hurricane activity can be observed in data going back nearly a century. The apparent recent breaking of the 18-year Sahel drought during 1988 and 1989 suggests that the incidence of intense hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast and in the Caribbean basin will likely increase during the 1990s and early years of the 21st century to levels of activity notably greater than were observed during the 1970s and 1980s.     

Anthropogenic warming of Earth's climate system

We compared the temporal variability of the heat content of the world ocean, of the global atmosphere, and of components of Earth's cryosphere during the latter half of the 20th century. Each component has increased its heat content (the atmosphere and the ocean) or exhibited melting (the cryosphere). The estimated increase of observed global ocean heat content (over the depth range from 0 to 3000 meters) between the 1950s and 1990s is at least one order of magnitude larger than the increase in heat content of any other component. Simulation results using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model that includes estimates of the radiative effects of observed temporal variations in greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, solar irradiance, and volcanic aerosols over the past century agree with our observation-based estimate of the increase in ocean heat content. The results we present suggest that the observed increase in ocean heat content may largely be due to the increase of anthropogenic gases in Earth's atmosphere.     

Initial observations of the nightside ionosphere of venus from pioneer venus orbiter radio occultations

Pioneer Venus orbiter dual-frequency radio occultation measurements have produced many electron density profiles of the nightside ionosphere of Venus. Thirty-six of these profiles, measured at solar zenith angles (chi) from 90.60 degrees to 163.5 degrees , are discussed here. In the "deep" nightside ionosphere (chi > 110 degrees ), the structure and magnitude of the ionization peak are highly variable; the mean peak electron density is 16,700 +/- 7,200 (standard deviation) per cubic centimeter. In contrast, the altitude of the peak remains fairly constant with a mean of 142.2 +/- 4.1 kilometers, virtually identical to the altitude of the main peak of the dayside terminator ionosphere. The variations in the peak ionization are not directly related to contemporal variations in the solar wind speed. It is shown that electron density distributions similar to those observed in both magnitude and structure can be produced by the precipitation on the nightside of Venus of electron fluxes of about 108 per square centimeter per second with energies less than 100 electron volts. This mechanism could very likely be responsible for the maintenance of the persistent nightside ionosphere of Venus, although transport processes may also be important.     

基于Elman网络的地面太阳总辐射估算方法

通过建立地面太阳总辐射的Elman网络估算模型,利用北京市1971～1995年的气象数据训练网络,并对1996～2000年的数据进行估算。对比分析结果表明,基于Elman网络的地面太阳总辐射估算方法具有较高的精度。     

蔬菜大棚内辐照度时空变化研究

[目的]为蔬菜大棚的高产栽培提供理论指导。[方法]利用TBQ—DL太阳辐射电流表对蔬菜大棚的辐照度时间和空间变化进行测定和研究。[结果]蔬菜大棚内阴天和晴天辐熙度均呈单峰型曲线,阴天辐照度比晴天弱,阴天辐照度在14：00达到最大值,晴天在12：00达到最大值。阴天和晴天辐照度均随高度的升高呈递增趋势。阴天和晴天大棚不同部位辐照度规律均是：上午东侧〉中侧〉西侧,下午西侧〉中侧〉东侧。[结论]在生产中,尤其是阴天较多的地区,应该更充分利用蔬菜大棚高层的光照资源。     

Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling

Observations reveal that the substantial cooling of the global lower stratosphere over 1979-2003 occurred in two pronounced steplike transitions. These arose in the aftermath of two major volcanic eruptions, with each cooling transition being followed by a period of relatively steady temperatures. Climate model simulations indicate that the space-time structure of the observed cooling is largely attributable to the combined effect of changes in both anthropogenic factors (ozone depletion and increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases) and natural factors (solar irradiance variation and volcanic aerosols). The anthropogenic factors drove the overall cooling during the period, and the natural ones modulated the evolution of the cooling.     

Observed ozone response to variations in solar ultraviolet radiation

During the winter of 1979, the solar ultraviolet irradiance varied with a period of 13.5 days and an amplitude of 1 percent. The zonal mean ozone values in the tropics varied with the solar irradiance, with an amplitude of 0.25 to 0.60 percent. This observation agrees with earlier calculations, although the response may be overestimated. These results imply changes in ozone at an altitude of 48 kilometers of up to 12 percent over an 11-year solar cycle. Interpretation of ozone changes in the upper stratosphere will require measurements of solar ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths near 200 nanometers.     

Determination and Analysis on Heat of Trapezoidal Soil Wall in Solar Greenhouse

Solar greenhouse with trapezoidal soil wall is widely used due to its good heat retaining property and cost efficiency.In this study, solar irradiance, heat flux and the temperature 0.05 and 0.3 m from the inner surface of the wall at the upper,middle and lower measured positions were determined to study the thermal condition of the trapezoidal soil wall in solar greenhouse. The results showed: first, both the solar irradiance and the temperature increased from the upper to the lower measured position. Second, the heat absorption also increased from the upper to the lower measured position. In clear day, the heat absorption at the three measured positions accounted for 31.4%, 32.6% and 36.0% of the total amount of heat absorption of the whole wall. In cloudy day, the heat absorption at the three measured positions were 0.249, 0.370 and 0.440 MJ/m~2, which accounted for 23.5%, 35.0% and 41.4% of the total amount of heat absorption of the whole wall. When P0.05, the heat fluxes were strikingly different between the upper and lower measured positions. But when P0.01, the heat flux had no big difference among the three measured positions. Third, in clear day, the heat emission was the biggest at the middle measured position and smallest at the upper measured position. The heat emission at the three measured positions accounted for 27.5%, 36.7%and 35.8% of the total amount of heat emission of the whole wall. And the heat emission between the middle and lower measured position was not strikingly different. In cloudy day, the heat emission was the biggest at the lower measured position and smallest at the upper measured position. The average heat emission at the three measured positions accounted for 26.1%,36.4% and 37.4% of the total amount of heat emission of the whole wall. Fourthly, correlativity, the solar irradiance directly influenced the heat absorption and had close relation with heat emission. And heat emission again had close relation with the temperature in the greenhouse. Solar irradiance directly influences the thermal condition of a solar green house. It is hoped that this study can be referred to optimize trapezoidal structure and to improve the thermal conditions of the solar greenhouse.     

全国多环芳烃排放的时空变异特征

根据排放因子和相关排放活动的统计资料,分析了全国PAHs排放的空间分布和时间变异特征,并预测未来16年间全国PAHs的年排放量。结果表明,1999年全国单位GDP排放量和人均年排放量的总体趋势均表现为从西北部和北部向东南沿海逐渐减少;而单位面积年排放量则在中部和东部较高,西部与东南沿海较低。不同排放源的贡献比例存在显著的地区差异。全国PAHs年排放量在1980—1988年持续上升,1988—1996年则相对稳定在1.0～1.1万t,1996年以后因排放因子较高的非工业燃煤用量大幅减少而连续下降至1980年水平。考虑未来经济和能源结构调整以及国家政策的变化,至2020年全国PAHs年排放量预计将达到1.3～1.7万t。