Demographic characteristics of scrapie-affected holdings identified by active and passive surveillance schemes in Great Britain: 2002–2005

Several surveillance techniques have been used to quantify the prevalence of both classical and atypical scrapie in British sheep, namely the recording of clinical suspects (RC) and the testing of animals slaughtered at abattoir (AS) or reported as fallen stock (FS). Any estimate of prevalence based on a particular source is likely to have been affected by demographic differences in the populations sampled. In this study, the demographic characteristics of scrapie-affected holdings detected by each of the surveillance streams (RC, AS, FS) in Great Britain were compared. Analyses of all three streams indicated that the probability of an affected holding being detected by a particular stream differed by geographical area, the number of animals brought onto the holding, the type of scrapie identified (classical vs. atypical) and the year. More detailed analysis of AS and FS suggested that the annual and regional differences between these surveys could be explained by differences in sampling effort.     

A case study of capture-recapture methodology using scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain

We applied capture–recapture methodology (CRC) to data from three surveillance sources (statutory notification, abattoir survey (AS) and fallen stock (FS) survey) to estimate the number of holdings infected with scrapie in Great Britain and to assess the sensitivity of the surveillance network. Between January 1, 2002 and March 31, 2003, 144 holdings were identified by the three sources. Using CRC modelling techniques, we estimated a minimum lower bound for the total number of holdings infected as 642. A biologically plausible positive dependence between the statutory reporting and the fallen stock survey was found statistically significant. The sensitivity of the three sources combined was very low. The integration of the three overlapping sources provided a better understanding of the interactions within the surveillance network. However, the scarcity of the data and reduced overlapping among sources only allowed for very cautious inferences to be drawn about the true proportion of scrapie affected holdings in the national population. Future surveys and surveillance activities should be planned such that the resulting data can be used more effectively as part of CRC modelling approaches.     

Temporal aspects of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain: holding-associated risk factors for the disease

The objectives of this study were first to describe the pattern of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain in terms of the temporal change in the proportion of all cattle holdings that had experienced at least one confirmed case of BSE to June 30, 1997, and secondly to identify risk factors that influenced the date of onset of a holding's first confirmed BSE case. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and the BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was the cattle holding and included all those recorded at least once on annual agricultural censuses conducted between June 30, 1986, and June 30, 1996. The outcome of interest was the date on which clinical signs were recorded in a holding's first confirmed case of BSE, termed the BSE onset date. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to describe the temporal pattern of the epidemic. The BSE epidemic in Great Britain started in November 1986, with the majority of affected holdings having their BSE onset date after February 1992. After adjusting for the effect of the size and type of holding, holdings in the south of England (specifically those in the Eastern, South east and South west regions) had 2.22 to 2.43 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 2.07 to 2.58) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings in Scotland. After adjusting for the effect of region and type of holding, holdings with more than 53 adult cattle had 5.91 (95 per cent CI 5.62 to 6.21) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings with seven to 21 adult cattle. Dairy holdings had 3.06 (95 per cent CI 2.96 to 3.16) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as beef suckler holdings. These analyses show that there were different rates of onset in different regions and in holdings of different sizes and types, that the epidemic was propagated most strongly in the south of the country, and that the growth of the epidemic followed essentially the same pattern in each region of the country, with modest temporal lags between them. The control measures imposed in 1988 and 1990 brought the expansion of the epidemic under control, although the rate of progress was slowed by those regions where the effectiveness of the control methods took some time to take full effect.     

Analysis of data from the passive surveillance of scrapie in Great Britain between 1993 and 2002

Reports of clinical scrapie in Great Britain between January 1, 1993 and December 31, 2002 were reviewed. Scrapie was confirmed in 4142 sheep on 1099 holdings. The cumulative case and holding incidence risks decreased in 2001, probably owing to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, although there were regional variations. Sheep aged between three and four years old constituted the largest affected group. In the period between 1998 and 2002, 51.3 per cent of the cases had the genotype ARQ/VRQ, 19.3 per cent were ARQ/ARQ and 18.9 per cent were VRQ/VRQ; Swaledale, Shetland and Welsh mountain sheep were the most common pure breeds reported. The areas at highest risk were the Shetland Islands, followed by the south and east of England.     

Descriptive spatial analysis of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain to June 1997

This was a spatial analysis of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain, based on agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996 and BSE case data collected up to June 1997. Kernel smoothing techniques were used to plot the distribution of BSE-positive cattle holdings per 100 holdings per square kilometre and the distribution of confirmed BSE cases per 100 head of cattle per square kilometre. In the early stages of the epidemic reported BSE cases were scattered widely throughout Great Britain, with no clearly identifiable focus. By June 1997, a statistically significant cluster of BSE-positive holdings was identifiable in the eastern part of the South west region of England. During the epidemic the highest densities of confirmed BSE cases per 100 cattle per square kilometre occurred in the greater part of the South west region of England and within Dyfed in the south west of Wales. In Wales, a small number of holdings experienced large numbers of confirmed BSE cases. In the South west region of England a large number of holdings experienced small numbers of confirmed cases. By June 1997, the distribution of BSE-positive holdings across Great Britain was largely determined by factors that influenced the amount of recycled infectious material they were exposed to.     

Case-control study of cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy born after July 31, 1996 (BARB cases) in Great Britain

This paper reports the results of a case-control study of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases born in Great Britain after the statutory reinforcement of the ban (BARB) on the feeding of mammalian-derived meat and bone meal on 31 July 1996. A total of 499 suspect clinical cases of BSE, born after 31 July 1996, and reported negative by July 31, 1996 and were compared with the set of 164 confirmed Great BARB cases in Great Britain detected by both passive and active surveillance. Animal-level risk factors (age and type of feed offered) and herd-level risk factors (herd size and type, number of prereinforced feed ban BSE cases born on the holding, the presence of other domestic species and waste management) were obtained for the analysis. BARB cases were 2.56 times (95 per cent CI 1.29 to 5.07) more likely to be exposed to homemix or a combination of homemix and proprietary feeds were 0.59 times (95 per cent CI 0.50 to 0.69) as less likely to be exposed to the unit increases in the number of prereinforced feed ban BSE cases diagnosed on the natal holding. A supplementary spatial analysis of these cases revealed three areas of excess BARB density: Northwest and Southwest of Wales and Northeast of Scotland.     

A Bayesian zero-truncated approach for analysing capture-recapture count data from classical scrapie surveillance in France

Capture-recapture (CR) methods are used to study populations that are monitored with imperfect observation processes. They have recently been applied to the monitoring of animal diseases to evaluate the number of infected units that remain undetected by the surveillance system. This paper proposes three bayesian models to estimate the total number of scrapie-infected holdings in France from CR count data obtained from the French classical scrapie surveillance programme. We fitted two zero-truncated Poisson (ZTP) models (with and without holding size as a covariate) and a zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) model to the 2006 national surveillance count dataset. We detected a large amount of heterogeneity in the count data, making the use of the simple ZTP model inappropriate. However, including holding size as a covariate did not bring any significant improvement over the simple ZTP model. The ZTNB model proved to be the best model, giving an estimation of 535 (CI(95%) 401-796) infected and detectable sheep holdings in 2006, although only 141 were effectively detected, resulting in a holding-level prevalence of 4.4‰ (CI(95%) 3.2-6.3) and a sensitivity of holding-level surveillance of 26% (CI(95%) 18-35). The main limitation of the present study was the small amount of data collected during the surveillance programme. It was therefore not possible to build complex models that would allow depicting more accurately the epidemiological and detection processes that generate the surveillance data. We discuss the perspectives of capture-recapture count models in the context of animal disease surveillance.     

The impact of the genotype on the prevalence of classical scrapie at population level

ABSTRACT: Total number and genotypes of animals in holdings selected for the genotype & cull option in the Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme (CSFS) in Great Britain were extracted from the National Scrapie Plan data warehouse. The association between various genotype-related measures and scrapie prevalence infection was tested using zero-inflated negative binomial models with the counts of positive cases as dependent variable, and country, number of flocks in the scheme, flock size, surveillance source and the following genotype-related measurements: the centered-log ratios (clr) oof the 15 genotypes, of the proportions of the 5 alleles at codons 136, 154 and 171, of the proportions of the 5 NSP types, and two flock-susceptibility risk indicators, as explanatory variables. A total of 319341 genotyped animals from 168 holdings were included in the analysis. An increased proportion of the ARR/ARR genotype corresponded to a decrease in the number of scrapie cases. ARR/AHQ, AHQ/VRQ, ARH/VRQ and ARQ/VRQ genotypes, NSP type V, ARH, ARQ, AHQ and VRQ alleles and the low and high-susceptibility risk indicators are all associated with an increase risk in the number of scrapie cases.Regardless the management practices; the increased susceptibility that the non-ARR alleles confer on an individual could be extrapolated at the population level. Increasing prevalence of ARR allele reduces the overall risk of scrapie at population level. At genotype level, the VRQ/VRQ genotype, present a very low frequency in the study population, seems to play a residual effect in the overall risk of scrapie in a flock.     

Swine Vesicular Disease in Great Britain

The State Veterinary Service in Great Britain has encountered considerable difficulty in eradicating SVD. For the last four years confirmed outbreaks have been mainly confined to one region, linked directly to outbreaks in that region, or have occurred as isolated cases related to the feeding of swill. The surveillance effort to locate subclinical disease has far surpassed that of any other country.

There is no doubt that the introduction of SVD into any country which adopts a stamping-out policy for FMD and does not vaccinate, could present similar problems to those experienced by Great Britain.

     

Control of warble fly in Great Britain and the European Community

The costs of warble fly in cattle have been estimated at 35 million pounds for Great Britain in 1985 and $85 million for Italy in 1982. Control measures within the European Community vary from one country to another and from the voluntary application of systemic products by individual farmers to comprehensive national eradication schemes backed by legislation. Of the countries opting for national eradication measures, Denmark has been successful and the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Great Britain have reduced the incidence of the disease to very low levels. In Great Britain in 1978, 38 per cent of cattle were found to be affected in a survey of selected fatstock markets by the Meat and Livestock Commission. In 1985 the incidence had fallen to 0.01 per cent. Seven hundred and five affected herds were found in Great Britain when the disease was made notifiable in 1982, falling to 419 affected herds in 1985. Treatment of all cattle over 12 weeks old is required in affected herds. Since 1982 parts of Great Britain where the disease has persisted or where there is evidence of a recrudescence have been designated 'infected areas' in which all cattle over 12 weeks old have been required to be treated within specific dates. In addition to statutory measures the control measures in Great Britain include the inspection of cattle at auction markets and on farms. Work on the application to field conditions of an ELISA test is in progress, with encouraging results. It is considered that Great Britain is now well placed to eradicate warble fly.     

Tools to study trends in community structure: application to fish and livestock trading networks

Partitioning of contact networks into communities allows groupings of epidemiologically related nodes to be derived, that could inform the design of disease surveillance and control strategies, e.g. contact tracing or design of 'firebreaks' for disease spread. However, these are only of merit if they persist longer than the timescale of interventions. Here, we apply different methods to identify concordance between network partitions across time for two animal trading networks, those of salmon in Scotland (2002-2004) and livestock in Great Britain (2003-2004). Both trading networks are similar in that they moderately agree over time in terms of their community structures, but this concordance is higher--and therefore community structure is more consistent--when only the 'core' network of nodes involved in trading over the whole time series is considered. In neither case was higher agreement found between partitions close together in time. These measures differ in their absolute values unless appropriate standardisation is applied. Once standardised, the measures gave similar values for both network types.     

A Bayesian hierarchical analysis to compare classical and atypical scrapie surveillance data; Wales 2002-2006

We describe the application of Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) to the analysis of risk of sheep scrapie using data from multiple surveillance sources. More specifically, we analysed data from the test results of three surveillance sources on classical and atypical scrapie in Wales for the period 2002-2006. For each form of scrapie, a BHM was fitted to assess the occurrence of spatial patterns of risk shared by the multiple surveillance sources and the association between covariates and disease. We defined a shared-component model whereby the two types of data sources: exhaustive lists (e.g. reports of clinical cases) and sample-based data sources (e.g. abattoir survey) shared a common spatial pattern of risks at parish level. This shared component was adjusted by a risk-gradient parameter that moderated the individual contribution of the datasets. For both forms of scrapie, the risk-gradient was not significantly different indicating that the sensitivity of the two types of dataset was similar for the two diseases. The spatial patterns of the combinations of data sources appeared similar within disease. However, our results suggest that classical and atypical scrapie differ in their spatial patterns and disease determinants. The joint approach permitted inference from all the available evidence and resulted in robust and less biased estimates of risk, particularly for atypical scrapie where the number of observations was very limited.     

Frequencies of prion protein (PrP) genotypes and distribution of ages in 15 scrapie-affected flocks in Great Britain

The frequencies of prion protein (PrP) genotypes were investigated in 15 scrapie-affected flocks in Great Britain. The flocks were heterogeneous in the frequencies of different genotypes and alleles, and in their age distributions. The median flock frequency of animals with VRQ-containing genotypes was 21 per cent (range 2 to 82 per cent, mean 25 per cent). The VRQ-containing and other non-ARR genotypes made up 11 to 82 per cent of a flock (median 46 per cent, mean 48 per cent). In comparison with data from the general population the scrapie-affected population had a lower frequency of the ARR/ARR genotype, and so of the ARR allele, and had a higher frequency of VRQ/non-ARR heterozygote genotypes, and thus of the VRQ allele.     

Preliminary estimates of the direct costs associated with endemic diseases of livestock in Great Britain.

Many 'economic' studies of livestock diseases in Great Britain have been carried out over time. Most studies have considered just one or two diseases and used a different methodology and valuation base from other studies, hampering any comparative assessment of the economic impact of diseases. A standardized methodology was applied to the estimation of the direct costs to livestock production of some 30 endemic diseases/conditions of farm animals in Great Britain. This involved identification of the livestock populations at risk, estimation of the annual incidence of each disease in these populations, identification of the range and incidence of physical effects of each disease on production, valuation of the physical effects of each disease and estimation of the financial value of output losses/resource wastage due to a disease and the costs of specific treatment and prevention measures. The wider economic impacts of disease (such as the implications for human health, animal welfare and markets) were not included in the assessments. Using this standardized methodology with common financial values, a simple spreadsheet model was constructed for each disease. Given the paucity of appropriate disease data for economic assessment, 'low' and 'high' values were used to reflect uncertainties surrounding key disease parameters. Preliminary estimates of the value of disease output losses/resource wastage, treatment and prevention costs are presented for each disease. Despite the limitations of the spreadsheet models and of the estimates derived from them, we conclude that the models represent a useful start in developing a system for the comparative economic assessment of livestock diseases in Great Britain.     

The natural occurrence of scrapie in moufflon.

Six cases of scrapie were confirmed in two separately maintained flocks of moufflon, in both of which the disease appeared to be endemic. The clinical signs and histopathology were indistinguishable from those observed in scrapie-affected domesticated sheep. The pathology included lesions in the cerebral cortex which, although commonly present in scrapie-affected sheep, have not previously been described in the natural disease.     

Detection and surveillance for animal trichinellosis in GB

The zoonotic disease trichinellosis is considered one of the re-emerging diseases with surveillance and control methods constantly gaining more importance worldwide. Recent change in European Union (EU) legislation introduces Trichinella-free production, and the possibility of risk-based monitoring for Trichinella in pigs. This has increased the role of wildlife surveillance programmes and their impact on protecting human health as well as highlighted the need for harmonised surveillance protocols and test methods for these infections. A modified digest method, based on the EU reference method for Trichinella testing of pig meat, was used to screen foxes present in Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) for trichinellosis. The method was validated using batched pools of 10 g foreleg muscle from up to 20 foxes (maximum amount 200 g). The method gave an average trichinae recovery rate of 71% for spiked samples. Assuming this recovery rate applies to all contaminated samples, then the test sensitivity would be 70% for all tissue samples with 0.1 trichinae per 10 g of foreleg muscle, 99.9% for samples with 1 trichinae per 10 g, and 100% for samples with 2 or more trichinae per 10 g. In two separate studies, conducted between 1999 to 2001 (Smith et al., 2003) and 2003 to 2007, over 3500 wild foxes have been screened for Trichinella with negative results. In the second study reported here, foxes were collected from locations throughout Great Britain using a stratified sampling method based on fox population densities. All work was conducted in compliance with appropriate quality assurance systems, latterly under ISO 9001. Results to date indicate the national prevalence of trichinellosis in foxes is <0.001 based on a 10 g individual sample size, an infection level of 1 larva per gram (l pg) and 95% confidence interval. This, together with no reports of trichinellosis in domesticated pigs, suggests that Britain can be considered a region of negligible risk of trichinellosis.     

Survey of pet owners' expectations of surgical practice within first opinion veterinary clinics in Great Britain

O bjectives : The expectations of small animal pet owners in Great Britain were evaluated on a number of issues regarding aseptic practice and clinical management and compared with final year veterinary students' assessment of actual veterinary practice.
M aterials and M ethods : A survey was completed by 328 small animal pet owners and 56 veterinary practices in Great Britain. Questions from the pet owner survey related to expectations and opinions on a number of surgical issues and questions from the veterinary surgeon survey examined veterinary practice in relation to the same issues. Comparisons were made to determine whether there were any differences between pet owner expectations and veterinary student assessment of actual practice of small animal first opinion clinics.
R esults : In the majority of issues examined there was a significant mismatch between client expectation and provisions made. Of particular importance was the discrepancy regarding the use of surgical gloves and administration of analgesia.
C linical S ignificance : These results suggest that attempts should be made to understand and improve the disparity that exists between small animal pet owners and veterinary surgeons in Great Britain.     

Examination of adenovirus-types in intestinal vascular endothelial inclusions in fatal cases of enteric disease in cattle, by in situ hybridisation

There have been occasional reports in the literature of a severe naturally occurring enteric disease of cattle in which adenoviral inclusions were found in intestinal vascular endothelium. Bovine adenovirus type 10 (BAV-10) was identified by in situ hybridisation (ISH) in the inclusions of all 13 such cattle detected in Northern Ireland [Smyth, J.A., Benk?, M., Moffett, D.A., Harrach, B., 1996. J. Clin. Microbiol. 34, 1270-1274]. The present paper describes ISH examination of the vascular endothelial inclusion bodies in a further seventeen cattle with enteric disease, from Canada, Great Britain, Italy and The Netherlands. BAV-10 was identified in the inclusions of ten cases, and Subgroup 2 BAVs in six cases. BAV-10 was identified in cattle from Canada, The Netherlands and Great Britain. This is the first recognition of BAV-10 infection outside Northern Ireland and New Zealand. The results also show that at least two adenovirus serotypes may induce inclusion bodies in intestinal vascular endothelium of cattle. It will, therefore, be difficult in the short term to develop a simple test to allow diagnosis of this form of adenoviral infection in living animals, and thus to determine the relationship between it and clinical disease.     

Pulmonary adenomatosis (jaagsiekte) of sheep in Canada

Sheep pulmonary adenomatosis has recently been reported in Canada. The literature is briefly reviewed and an account of the present status of the disease in Canada is described.

Sheep pulmonary adenomatosis was first diagnosed in Canada in December 1979 in a first generation descendent of sheep imported from Great Britain. In March 1980 two further cases of sheep pulmonary adenomatosis were diagnosed in a second flock. A total of 43 sheep involving eight flocks from five provinces have been observed from December, 1979 to May, 1981. The clinical signs and laboratory findings were similar to those described in sheep from other countries. It is estimated that 30% of Canadian flocks may contain sheep imported from Great Britain during the 1970's.

     

Survey of Salmonella prevalence on commercial turkey breeding and fattening farms in the UK in 2006 to 2007

A total of 29 breeding turkey holdings and 317 fattening turkey holdings were sampled between October 2006 and September 2007 in order to establish the baseline prevalence of Salmonella in turkeys in the UK. The weighted holding level Salmonella prevalence was found to be 20.1 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 8.6 to 40.3 per cent) in breeding turkeys and 37.7 per cent (95 per cent CI 33.4 to 42.3 per cent) in fattening turkeys. For breeding turkeys, a weighted flock-level prevalence, as more than one flock per holding was sampled, was estimated at 7.1 per cent (95 per cent CI 3.2 to 14.8 per cent). A total of 13 different serovars were identified in the survey. The most frequent serovar in both turkey flock classes was Salmonella Kottbus, which was found on two breeding holdings and 63 of the fattening holdings giving weighted prevalences of 10.4 per cent (95 per cent CI 2.6 to 34.1 per cent) and 23.0 per cent (95 per cent CI 19.3 to 27.3 per cent), respectively. On breeding holdings, a single isolate of Salmonella Typhimurium, identified as DT12 (weighted prevalence 3.5 per cent [95 per cent CI 0.7 to 15.8 per cent] [holding], 0.7 per cent [95 per cent CI 0.1 to 3.7 per cent] [flock)], was found. On fattening holdings, there were 55 isolates of S Typhimurium from 16 holdings, giving a weighted prevalence of this serovar of 5.4 per cent (95 per cent CI 3.6 to 8.0 per cent). There were no isolates of Salmonella serovars Enteritidis, Hadar, Infantis or Virchow.