Old-growth forest landscape transitions from pre-European settlement to present

We conducted a multi-temporal spatial analysis of forest cover for a 9600 ha landscape in northern Wisconsin, U.S.A., using data from pre-European settlement (1860s), post-settlement (1931), and current (1989) periods. Using GIS we have shown forest landscape changes and trajectories that have been generally described in aggregate for the norther Great Lake States region. We created the pre-European settlement map from the witness tree data of the original federal General Land Office survey notes. The 1931 cover was produced from the Wisconsin Land Economic Inventory, and the 1989 cover map was based on color infrared photography. We used GIS to analyze 1) land area occupied by different forest types at different dates, 2) temporal transitions between dates and their driving proceses, and 3) successional trajectories with landforms and spatial associations of forest types. Over the 120 year period, forest cover has changed from a landscape dominated by old-growth hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) and hardwood forests (Acer saccharum, Betula alleghaniensis) to largely second-growth hardwoods and conifers. The former dominant hemlock is largely eliminated from the landscape. From 1860 to 1931, large-scale disturbances associated with logging were the dominant processes on the landscape. Early successional forest types covered much of the landscape by the 1930s. From 1931 to 1989, succession was the dominant process driving forest transitions as forest types succeeded to a diverse group of upland hardwood and conifer forest types. If successional trajectories continue, a more homogeneous landscape may develop comprised of both a northern hardwood type dominated by sugar maple, and a boreal conifer/hardwood forest.     

Recent forest cover type transitions and landscape structural changes in northeast Minnesota,USA

Landsat TM satellite data covering an approximate 5-year interval (1990–1995) were used to quantify spatial pattern and transition rates between forest ecological states for a 2.76 million ha region in northeast Minnesota. Changes in forest cover were stratified by Ecological Subsection, management status, and by ownership categories using a 1995 digital ownership layer. Approximately 4.2% of the 1990 mature forested area was converted to early successional types by 1995. Of this 4.2%, private lands accounted for 33%, federal lands 31%, county lands 20% and state lands 16%. Notable conversion percentages by cover type category were spruce-fir (−5.3%), aspen-birch(−4.7%), jack pine (−4.6%) and black spruce(−3.0%). Transition rates were also adjusted to fit ten-year time intervals. Shannon-Weaver Eveness and edge density of cover types increased over the study period as relative contagion and interior forest area decreased. These trends suggest both smaller patches and a more even distribution of cover types. Area of upland conifers, lowland conifers and lowland hardwoods decreased while the area of mature upland hardwoods increased in most patch size classes except the > 500 ha class which showed a substantial decrease in area. The area of early successional types increased in most patch size classes. Non-industrial private forestland had the lowest proportion of interior forest of all ownership categories -decreasing by 13.5% in five years. Smaller average cut-unit size sand uncoordinated forest management is the likely cause since cutting rates between private and public forestland were similar. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Land Use – Land Cover Conversion, Regeneration and Degradation in the High Elevation Bolivian Andes

Regional land-cover change affects biodiversity, hydrology, and biogeochemical cycles at local, watershed, and landscape scales. Developing countries are experiencing rapid land cover change, but assessment is often restricted by limited financial resources, accessibility, and historical data. The assessment of regional land cover patterns is often the first step in developing conservation and management plans. This study used remotely sensed land cover and topographic data (Landsat and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission), supervised classification techniques, and spectral mixture analysis to characterize current landscape patterns and quantify land cover change from 1985 to 2003 in the Altiplano (2535–4671 m) and Intermediate Valley (Mountain) (1491–4623 m) physiographic zones in the Southeastern Bolivian Andes. Current land cover was mapped into six classes with an overall accuracy of 88% using traditional classification techniques and limited field data. The land cover change analysis showed that extensive deforestation, desertification, and agricultural expansion at a regional scale occurred in the last 20 years (17.3% of the Mountain Zone and 7.2% of the Altiplano). Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) indicated that communal rangeland degradation has also occurred, with increases in soil and non-photosynthetic vegetation fractions in most cover classes. SMA also identified local areas with intensive management activities that are changing differently from the overall region (e.g., localized areas of increased green vegetation). This indicates that actions of local communities, governments, and environmental managers can moderate the potentially severe future changes implied by the results of this study.     

The use of remotely-sensed satellite imagery for landscape classification in Wales (U.K.)

Remotely-sensed satellite data from Landsat TM and MSS were processed digitally to make landscape classifications of three study areas of south east Wales. The classifications were constructed by classifying major variations in land cover mosaics within the areas, and using these data to group the 1 km × 1 km cells of the National Grid into landscape classes according to the combination of cover types found within them. The TWINSPAN algorithm, which is a polythetic, divisive classification method, was used as the basis of the study.The results showed that while satellite imagery could only be used to extract information about land cover, the close association betwen landscape, land cover and terrain meant that the major physical divisions in the study area could also be detected in the landscape classification. The landscape types recognised in the study were found to be consistent with those indicated in other independent data which relate to the areas. These data included the ITE Land Classes for Great Britain, and the Agricultural (June) Census statistics for England and Wales.The approach to landscape classification described allows landscape classifications to be made rapidly. These classifications can provide a sampling frameworks for landscape survey in areas where basic map data are lacking or resources for field survey are limited. The landscape classifications can also assist in making landscape evaluations since they allow different landscape types to be compared in respect of such properties such as their typicalness, rarity, naturalness and position on a geographical or ecological gradient.     

Rates and patterns of landscape change in the Central Sikhote-alin Mountains,Russian Far East

We used Landsat imagery and GIS to quantify the rates and patterns of landscape change between 1972 and 1992 for a 734,126 ha forested study area in the central Sikhote-alin Mountains of the Russian Far East. The study area includes a portion of the Sikhote-alinskiy Biosphere Reserve which is a part of the United Nations international Man and the Biosphere (MAB) reserve network. Wildfire is a major disturbance agent throughout the area and timber harvesting outside the reserve is also important. Maximum likelihood classification of the satellite imagery identified four broad cover types (hardwood, conifer, mixed and non-forest) in 1992 and changes among them between 1972 and 1992. We used multi-temporal principal components analysis to describe the magnitude and direction of landscape change for six watersheds that represent a range of ecological histories and disturbance regimes. Overall, forest cover declined from 90.4% in 1972 to 77.2% in 1992. The disturbance rate was more than twice as high in conifer than in hardwood forests. The rate of disturbance outside the reserve was three times that inside. While the rates of disturbance are not markedly higher than those recorded from other temperate forests, there has recently been a large alteration in the disturbance regime which will lead to a general transformation of forest composition and structure in the study area if the trend continues.     

Disturbance and landscape dynamics in the Chequamegon National Forest Wisconsin,USA, from 1972 to 2001

Land uses, especially harvesting and road building, are considered to be the primary cause of forest fragmentation in many parts of the world. To test this perception, we (1) quantified changes and rates of change in vegetative composition and structure within the Washburn Ranger District in northern Wisconsin using Landsat images, (2) examined changes in landscape structure, (3) assessed changes within the area of road influence (ARI), and (4) investigated changes in landscape composition and structure within the context of forest management activities. Our landscape classifications included six dominant cover types: mixed hardwood (MH), jack pine (JP), red pine (RP), mixed hardwood/conifer (MHC), non-forested bare ground (NFBG), and regenerating forest or shrub (RFS). Increases in NFBG and RFS, by 196% and 28% respectively, reflect expansion of the pine-barrens. Windthrow in the mature hardwoods during the late 1970s and jack pine budworm outbreaks during the mid-1990s correlated with decreases in those classes over the corresponding intervals. A 69% decrease in mean patch size and a 60% increase in edge density reflect increased fragmentation. An inverse relationship existed between the compositional trends of forested (excluding JP) cover types and RFS and NFBG cover types. ARI covered 8% of the landscape affecting species composition within the MH, RFS, and NFBG. Results from this study are key in assessing the links between management activities and ecological consequences and thereby facilitate adaptive management.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Presettlement landscape heterogeneity: Evaluating grain of resolution using General Land Office Survey data

General Land Office Survey (GLOS) records from the A.D. 1840s provide data for quantitative characterization of presettlement vegetation across western Mackinac County, Michigan, located within the mixed conifer-northern hardwoods forest region. We analyzed data from land survey plat maps and 1958 bearing, witness, and line trees from 162 surveyed section and quarter-section corners in order to map vegatation cover types at a level of spatial resolution appropriate for characterizing landscape heterogeneity using standard landscape ecological metrics. As also demonstrated by a number of both classic and contemporary plant-ecological studies, the distribution of landforms, soils properties, hydrology, and location of fire breaks all contribute to the heterogeneity in vegetation observed at a landscape scale in the region. Through a series of spatial landscape analyses with differing grain of resolution, in this study we determine that a grid cell size of 65 ha (0.5 mi×0.5 mi or 0.25 mi²) to 259 ha (1 mi²) gives a conservative characterization of landscape heterogeneity using standard metrics and is therefore appropriate for use of GLOS data to study historical landscape changes.     

A large-scale fire suppression edge-effect on forest composition in the New Jersey Pinelands

Broad scale ecological edge-effects are most likely common in urbanized landscapes prone to wildfire, but most edge-effect studies have focused on fine scale processes such as shade tolerance and seed dispersal. Evidence has suggested a shift from pine dominated to oak dominated forests at the interface of developed land and natural areas in the Pinelands of New Jersey with the presence of a large edge-effect due to fire suppression. The goal of this study was to assess the location, magnitude and mechanism of the shift from pine to oak cover focusing on distance to human-altered land as the driver of fire suppression and forest composition changes. Overall, fire frequency and upland pine cover decreased sharply closer to human-altered land and affected up to 420 m of adjacent upland forest. Other factors, such as prescribed fire and wetlands configurations may play a role in the interior forest dynamics, but trends toward lower upland pine forest cover and higher upland oak cover near human altered were dominant. The areal summations of distance from altered land and the use of percent change thresholds for determining the scale and magnitude of large scale ecological edge-effects could be useful to managers attempting to maintain or restore forest types in areas of high wildland–urban interface.     

Linear downscaling from MODIS to landsat: connecting landscape composition with ecosystem functions

Context

The open and free access to Landsat and MODIS products have greatly promoted scientific investigations on spatiotemporal change in land mosaics and ecosystem functions at landscape to regional scales. Unfortunately, there is a major mismatch in spatial resolution between MODIS products at coarser resolution (≥?250 m) and landscape structure based on classified Landsat scenes at finer resolution (30 m).

Objectives

Based on practical needs for downscaling popular MODIS products at 500 m resolution to match classified land cover at Landsat 30 m resolution, we proposed an innovative modelling approach so that landscape structure and ecosystem functions can be directly studied for their interconnections. As a proof-of-concept of our downscaling approach, we selected the watershed of the Kalamazoo River in southwestern Michigan, USA as the testbed.

Methods

MODIS products for three fundamental variables of ecosystem function are downscaled to ensure the approach can be extrapolated to multiple functional measurements. They are blue-sky albedo (0–1), evapotranspiration (ET, mm), and gross primary production (GPP, Mg C ha^?1 year^?1). An object-oriented classification of Landsat images in 2011 was processed to generate a land cover map for landscape structure. The downscaling model was tested for the five Level IV ecoregions within the watershed.

Results

We achieved satisfactory downscaling models for albedo, ET, and GPP for all five ecoregions. The adjusted R² was?>?0.995 for albedo, 0.915–0.997 for ET, and 0.902–0.962 for GPP. The estimated albedo, ET, and GPP values appear different in the region. The estimated albedo was the lowest for water (0.076–0.107) and the highest for cropland (0.166–0.172). Estimated ET was the highest for the built-up cover type (525.6–687.1 mm) and the lowest for forest (209.7–459.7 mm). The estimated GPP was the highest for the build-up cover type (8.65–9.85 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1) and the lowest for forest.

Conclusions

Estimated values for albedo, ET, and GPP appear reasonable for their ranges in the Kalamazoo River region and are consistent with values reported in the literature. Despite these promising results, the downscaling approach relies on strong assumptions and can carry substantial uncertainty. It is only valid at a spatial scale where similar climate, soil, and landforms exist (i.e., values in isolated patches of the same cover type are similar). Plausibly, the uncertainties associated with each estimation, as well as the model residuals, can be explored for other pattern-process relationships within the landscape.

     

Ownership and ecosystem as sources of spatial heterogeneity in a forested landscape,Wisconsin, USA

The interaction between physical environment and land ownership in creating spatial heterogeneity was studied in largely forested landscapes of northern Wisconsin, USA. A stratified random approach was used in which 2500-ha plots representing two ownerships (National Forest and private non-industrial) were located within two regional ecosystems (extremely well-drained outwash sands and moderately well-drained moraines). Sixteen plots were established, four within each combination of ownership and ecosystem, and the land cover on the plots was classified from aerial photographs using a modified form of the Anderson (U.S. Geological Survey) land use and land cover classification system.Upland deciduous forests dominated by northern hardwoods were common on the moraines for both ownerships. On the outwash, the National Forest was dominated by pine plantations, upland deciduous forests, and upland regenerating forests (as defined by <50% canopy coverage). In contrast, a more even distribution among the classes of upland forest existed on private land/outwash. A strong interaction between ecosystem and ownership was evident for most comparisons of landscape structure. On the moraine, the National Forest ownership had a finer grain pattern with more complex patch shapes compared to private land. On the outwash, in contrast, the National Forest had a coarser grain pattern with less complex patch shapes compared to private land. When patch size and shape were compared between ecosystems within an ownership, statistically significant differences in landscape structure existed on public land but not on private land. On public land, different management practices on the moraine and outwash, primarily related to timber harvesting and road building, created very different landscape patterns. Landscape structure on different ecosystems on private land tended to be similar because ownership was fragmented in both ecosystems and because ownership boundaries often corresponded to patch boundaries on private land. A complex relationship exits between ownership, and related differences in land use, and the physical environment that ultimately constrains land use. Studies that do not consider these interactions may misinterpret the importance of either variable in explaining variation in landscape patterns.     

Forest fragmentation in Loudoun County,Virginia, USA evaluated with multitemporal Landsat imagery

In order to study forest fragmentation in the Virginia, USA Piedmont, a series of Landsat images from 1973, 1987, and 1999 covering a rapidly developing area (Loudoun County) was used to classify forest from non-forest. The classified images were analyzed using a geographic information system (GIS) to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of fragmentation, and to relate these patterns to infrared radiance provided by Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) band 6. The analysis was concentrated on eleven major watersheds of Loudoun County. The relationship between urbanized area per watershed and mean fragment size showed a strong negative decay form (r ²=0.757, p<0.0001). Analysis of four landscape metrics showed increasing fragmentation of forest cover, particularly from 1987 to 1999, as well as an increase in forest edge and shape complexity. Of the landscape metrics used, the perimeter-to-area (P/A) ratio showed the strongest relationship with mean radiance of forest patches. In addition, there was a negative, linear relationship between distance from major roads and band 6 radiance of forested pixels. Overall, the study shows that landscape metrics can convey meaningful information on biophysical changes associated with forest fragmentation at broad scales. These changes suggest that ambient temperature increases associated with urban sprawl may have important, long-term implications for ecophysiological processes.     

Homogenization of northern U.S. Great Lakes forests due to land use

Human land use of forested regions has intensified worldwide in recent decades, threatening long-term sustainability. Primary effects include conversion of land cover or reversion to an earlier stage of successional development. Both types of change can have cascading effects through ecosystems; however, the long-term effects where forests are allowed to regrow are poorly understood. We quantify the regional-scale consequences of a century of Euro-American land use in the northern U.S. Great Lakes region using a combination of historical Public Land Survey records and current forest inventory and land cover data. Our analysis shows a distinct and rapid trajectory of vegetation change toward historically unprecedented and simplified conditions. In addition to overall loss of forestland, current forests are marked by lower species diversity, functional diversity, and structural complexity compared to pre-Euro-American forests. Today’s forest is marked by dominance of broadleaf deciduous species—all 55 ecoregions that comprise the region exhibit a lower relative dominance of conifers in comparison to the pre-Euro-American period. Aspen (Populus grandidentata and P. tremuloides) and maple (Acer saccharum and A. rubrum) species comprise the primary deciduous species that have replaced conifers. These changes reflect the cumulative effects of local forest alterations over the region and they affect future ecosystem conditions as well as the ecosystem services they provide. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Predicting land cover change and avian community responses in rapidly urbanizing environments

We used an integrated modeling approach to simulate future land cover and predict the effects of future urban development and land cover on avian diversity in the Central Puget Sound region of Washington State, USA. We parameterized and applied a land cover change model (LCCM) that used output from a microsimulation model of urban development, UrbanSim, and biophysical site and landscape characteristics to simulate land cover 28 years into the future. We used 1991, 1995, and 1999 Landsat TM-derived land cover data and three different spatial partitions of our study area to develop six different estimations of the LCCM. We validated model simulations with 2002 land cover. We combined UrbanSim land use outputs and LCCM simulations to predict changes in avian species richness. Results indicate that landscape composition and configuration were important in explaining land cover change as well as avian species response to landscape change. Over the next 28 years, urban land cover was predicted to increase at the expense of agriculture and deciduous and mixed lowland forests. Land cover changes were predicted to reduce the total number of avian species, with losses primarily in native forest specialists and gains in common synanthropic species such as the American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos). The integrated modeling framework we present has potential applications in urban and natural resource planning and management and in assessing of the effects of policies on land development, land cover, and avian biodiversity.     

Spatial patterns of bird community similarity: bird responses to landscape composition and configuration in the Atlantic forest

Studies dealing with community similarity are necessary to understand large scale ecological processes causing biodiversity loss and to improve landscape and regional planning. Here, we study landscape variables influencing patterns of community similarity in fragmented and continuous forest landscapes in the Atlantic forest of South America, isolating the effects of forest loss, fragmentation and patterns of land use. Using a grid design, we surveyed birds in 41 square cells of 100 km² using the point count method. We used multivariate, regression analyses and lagged predictor autoregressive models to examine the relative influence of landscape variables on community similarity. Forest cover was the primary variable explaining patterns of bird community similarity. Similarity showed a sudden decline between 20 and 40% of forest cover. Patterns of land use had a second order effect; native bird communities were less affected by forest loss in landscapes dominated by tree plantations (the most suitable habitat for native species) than in landscapes dominated by annual crops or cattle pastures. The effects of fragmentation were inconclusive. The trade-off between local extinctions and the invasion of extra-regional species using recently created habitats is probably the mechanism generating the observed patterns of community similarity. Limiting forest loss to 30–40% of the landscape cover and improving the suitability of human-modified habitats will contribute to maintain the structure and composition of the native forest bird community in the Atlantic forest.     

On the accuracy of landscape pattern analysis using remote sensing data

Advances in remote sensing technologies have provided practical means for land use and land cover mapping which is critically important for landscape ecological studies. However, all classifications of remote sensing data are subject to different kinds of errors, and these errors can be carried over or propagated in subsequent landscape pattern analysis. When these uncertainties go unreported, as they do commonly in the literature, they become hidden errors. While this is apparently an important issue in the study of landscapes from either a biophysical or socioeconomic perspective, limited progress has been made in resolving this problem. Here we discuss how errors of mapped data can affect landscape metrics and possible strategies which can help improve the reliability of landscape pattern analysis.     

Living on the edge: quantifying the structure of a fragmented forest landscape in England

Forest ecosystems have been widely fragmented by human land use, inducing significant microclimatic and biological changes at the forest edge. If we are to rigorously assess the ecological impacts of habitat fragmentation, there is a need to effectively quantify the amount of edge habitat within a landscape, and to allow this to be modelled for individual species and processes. Edge effect may extend only a few metres or as far as several kilometres, depending on the species or process in question. Therefore, rather than attempting to quantify the amount of edge habitat by using a fixed, case-specific distance to distinguish between edge and core, the area of habitat within continuously-varying distances from the forest edge is of greater utility. We quantified the degree of fragmentation of forests in England, where forests cover 10 % of the land area. We calculated the distance from within the forest patches to the nearest edge (forest vs. non-forest) and other landscape indices, such as mean patch size, edge density and distance to the nearest neighbour. Of the total forest area, 37 % was within 30 m and 74 % within 100 m of the nearest edge. This highlights that, in fragmented landscapes, the habitats close to the edge form a considerable proportion of the total habitat area. We then show how these edge estimates can be combined with ecological response functions, to allow us to generate biologically meaningful estimates of the impacts of fragmentation at a landscape scale.     

Landscape characteristics affecting streams in urbanizing regions of the Delaware River Basin (New Jersey,New York,and Pennsylvania,U.S.)

Widespread and increasing urbanization has resulted in the need to assess, monitor, and understand its effects on stream water quality. Identifying relations between stream ecological condition and urban intensity indicators such as impervious surface provides important, but insufficient information to effectively address planning and management needs in such areas. In this study we investigate those specific landscape metrics which are functionally linked to indicators of stream ecological condition, and in particular, identify those characteristics that exacerbate or mitigate changes in ecological condition over and above impervious surface. The approach used addresses challenges associated with redundancy of landscape metrics, and links landscape pattern and composition to an indicator of stream ecological condition across a broad area of the eastern United States. Macroinvertebrate samples were collected during 2000–2001 from forty-two sites in the Delaware River Basin, and landscape data of high spatial and thematic resolution were obtained from photointerpretation of 1999 imagery. An ordination-derived ‘biotic score’ was positively correlated with assemblage tolerance, and with urban-related chemical characteristics such as chloride concentration and an index of potential pesticide toxicity. Impervious surface explained 56% of the variation in biotic score, but the variation explained increased to as high as 83% with the incorporation of a second land use, cover, or configuration metric at catchment or riparian scales. These include land use class-specific cover metrics such as percent of urban land with tree cover, forest fragmentation metrics such as aggregation index, riparian metrics such as percent tree cover, and metrics related to urban aggregation. Study results indicate that these metrics will be important to monitor in urbanizing areas in addition to impervious surface.     

Forest fragmentation and regrowth in an institutional mosaic of community, government and private ownership in Nepal

This study analyzes forest change in an area of Nepal that signifies a delicate balance between sustaining the needs and livelihood of a sizable human population dependent on forest products, and an effort to protect important wildlife and other natural resources. The study area, a portion of the Chitwan valley district of Nepal, represents what may be becoming a common institutional mosaic in many countries of the world who have a population reliant on forest products for their livelihood: (1) a national park; (2) a designated park buffer involving participatory forest management programs; (3) scattered patches of designated community forest; and (4) large areas of adjacent landscape made up of mostly private landholdings under agricultural practices. Utilizing Landsat images from 1989 and 2000, we analyze land cover change in each of these management zones using landscape ecology metrics and quantifying proportional distributions of land cover categories. Our results show significant differences in terms of land cover dynamics and landscape spatial pattern between these land ownership classes. These findings indicate that community-based institutions (participatory management programs in the park buffer and the designated community forests) are capable of halting or even reversing trends in deforestation and forest fragmentation.     

Road Density and Landscape Pattern in Relation to Housing Density,and Ownership,Land Cover,and Soils

Roads are conspicuous components of landscapes and play a substantial role in defining landscape pattern. Previous studies have demonstrated the link between roads and their effects on ecological processes and landscape patterns. Less understood is the placement of roads, and hence the patterns imposed by roads on the landscape in relation to factors describing land use, land cover, and environmental heterogeneity. Our hypothesis was that variation in road density and landscape patterns created by roads can be explained in relation to variables describing land use, land cover, and environmental factors. We examined both road density and landscape patterns created by roads in relation to suitability of soil substrate as road subgrade, land cover, lake area and perimeter, land ownership, and housing density across 19 predominantly forested counties in northern Wisconsin, USA. Generalized least squares regression models showed that housing density and soils with excellent suitability for road subgrade were positively related to road density while wetland area was negatively related. These relationships were consistent across models for different road types. Landscape indices showed greater fragmentation by roads in areas with higher housing density, and agriculture, grassland, and coniferous forest area, but less fragmentation with higher deciduous forest, mixed forest, wetland, and lake area. These relationships provide insight into the complex relationships among social, institutional, and environmental factors that influence where roads occur on the landscape. Our results are important for understanding the impacts of roads on ecosystems and planning for their protection in the face of continued development.     

Uncertainty analysis as a tool for refining land dynamics modelling on changing landscapes: a case study in a Spanish Natural Park

In this study we developed a methodology aimed at improving the assessment of inter-annual land cover dynamics from hard classified remotely sensed data in heterogeneous and resilient landscapes. The methodology is implemented for the Spanish Natural Park of Sierra de Ancares, where human interference during the last century has resulted in the destruction and fragmentation of the original land cover. We ran supervised classifications, with a maximum likelihood algorithm (Maxlike), on a temporal series of Landsat images (1991–2005), followed by an uncertainty assessment using fuzzy classifications and confusion indices (CIs). This allowed us to show how much (and where) of the resulting maps contained a substantial amount of error, distinguishing data that might be useful to measure land change from data that are not particularly useful when applying a post-classification comparison methodology. In this way, we can detect true changes not skewed by the effects of uncertainty. Even if patterns of change were always coherent amongst years, they were more realistic after reducing uncertainty, in spite of a substantial decrease in the number of available pixels (i.e. unmasked by the method). We then computed land cover dynamics by means of a model specifically designed to determine the frequency of disturbances (mainly fire events) and the vegetation recovery time during the study period. Model outputs showed correlated landscape patterns at a broad scale and provided useful results to explore land cover change from pattern to process.