An assessment of forest sector modeling approaches: conceptual differences and quantitative comparison

Forest sector models are widely used for policy and economic analyses. Basic assumptions vary considerably between models, but little attention has been paid to the impacts these differences may have on model results. Norway provides a great opportunity to fill this void as it has two forest sector models currently in use based on different modeling assumptions, but sharing the same data source. In one model, agents are assumed to be myopic in the meaning that they rely only on the current market conditions. Harvest behavior is in this model based on econometric relations and exogenous forest growth rates. The second model approach employs extensive forest data and assumes that agents have perfect information over the model time horizon. We discuss the differences between the two modeling approaches and compare quantitatively the model results of two case studies. However, both types of models are rather sensitive to changes in assumptions and data. The strengths and weaknesses of the two model approaches and their appropriateness for responding to the study questions should be considered when choosing modeling methodology. Using both models in parallel removes the uncertainty caused by the foresight assumption/optimization routine and thus provides in total more information.     

Antecedents to forest owner innovativeness: An investigation of the non-timber forest products and services sector

Increased urbanization in many societies is having a negative impact on vitality of rural areas. To maintain the vitality of these areas governments have employed a variety of policies, some of which are designed to facilitate innovation and enhance landowner innovativeness. However, little research has investigated the antecedents to landowner innovativeness and whether innovativeness positively impacts economic performance in this setting. The present study investigates these issues in the context of Norwegian forestland owners and their involvement in non-timber forest products and services (a form of ecosystem services). The authors present a conceptual model hypothesizing that social networking, entrepreneurial climate, and a learning orientation each have a direct, positive impact on landowner innovativeness and innovativeness has a direct, positive impact on economic performance. Property size is included as a moderating variable. Data were collected via a mail survey and a total of 683 useable responses were received reaching an adjusted response rate of 35%. Results show that social networking and a learning orientation positively impact innovativeness, but that entrepreneurial climate does not. Innovativeness was found to positively impact economic performance. The authors outline implications of the findings that may be used by policy makers, landowners and research.     

Bioenergy from the forest sector: Economic potential and interactions with timber and forest products markets in Norway

Abstract

A partial equilibrium forest sector model which is augmented to include bioenergy was applied to project the use of bioenergy based on forest fuels and forest industry by-products in Norway for three different scenarios of the future prices of electricity and oil. The impacts on forestry and forest industries of the different energy price scenarios were also studied. The advantage of the suggested methodology is that it allows for assessments of the economic potential of bioenergy, taking into account the competition for raw materials, the specific heat demand of various regions, and interregional and international trade. Bioenergy will, according to this study, be fairly competitive in some market segments with the current price levels of electricity and oil, and only a minor increase (decrease) in energy (roundwood) prices would release substantially increased bioenergy production levels. Pulpwood prices of pine and non-coniferous species are projected to increase substantially when assuming increasing energy prices. Except for particleboard mills, production levels of forest industries appeared relatively insensitive to the energy price changes.     

An economic model of international wood supply,forest stock and forest area change

Abstract

Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock and the annual change of forest area. The results suggest that global forest area would decline by 477 million ha between 1999 and 2030, with the largest decline in Asia and Africa. However, global forest stock would increase by 25 billion?m³, with the largest increase in Europe, and North and Central America. Higher global harvests and lower prices were predicted than those predicted in the past with exogenous timber supply assumptions.     

Economic losses to Iberian swine production from forest fires

Most forestry property in Andalusia is privately held. One of the most important possibilities for economic development of rural areas is the use of pasture lands (dehesa in Spanish). During the spring–summer season, swine grazing takes advantage of grasses between the trees, and during winter (harsher times), they use Quercus tree fruit. Swine production has a direct economic impact on the rural areas' activities. Wildfires are the most significant disturbance in the Mediterranean ecosystems therefore; it is important to study the potential negative impact of wildfires on the swine resource. The public sector is responsible for the application and valuation of policies or activities creating wealth in forest areas while protecting the environment and preventing greater impacts and damages.     

The genetic and economic gains from forest tree breeding programmes in Scandinavia and Finland

Plantations of genetically improved forest trees are critical for economic sustainability in forestry. This review summarizes gains in objective traits and the resulting economic impact of tree breeding programmes in Scandinavia and Finland. Genetic improvement of forest trees in these countries began in the late 1940s, when the first phenotypically superior plus-trees were selected from natural environments. The main findings from this review are that (i) tree breeding can increase volume growth in the range 10–25%, and (ii) the bare land value associated with genetically improved trees gives a better return on investment and a shorter rotation period compared to the unimproved forests. As some Nordic countries are quite dependent on the forest industry, breeding programmes that have resulted in economic gains have been beneficial for society. Growth and wood quality traits are often adversely correlated, and the weighting of traits from an economic perspective could provide an index for determining maximum profit from breeding. Tree breeding faces an array of challenges in the future, such as changes in silviculture, climate, new pests and diseases, and demand for wood-based products.     

An economic assessment of industrial forest plantations

Industrial forest plantations are playing an increasingly important role in meeting world wood requirements. Recent successes with plantations in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere suggest potential for considerable expansion. The results of a detailed investigation of the comparative economics of industrial forest plantations in twelve regions of the globe, including nine in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, are reported. The important factors are identified and discussed and formal investment criteria are applied. In general, the analysis suggests that the economics of plantation forests in the regions of the Southern Hemisphere examined are quite favorable, provided that the development costs, which may be substantial, can be adequately covered.     

森林认证对林产品贸易的影响

森林认证在森林经营政策方面扮演了一个重要的补充角色并对林产品贸易起到了极其重要的影响。在短短的10余年间,森林认证已得到许多国家政府和林业部门的关注和认可。森林认证工作在中国刚刚起步,我们应该让更多的人了解森林认证并推动该项工作的发展。本文分析了森林认证对世界林产品贸易的影响,包括认证进出口国的利益、贸易流向、企业竞争、以及人们对认证林产品的需求,论述了森林认证对中国林产品贸易的影响,提出了森林认证对中国森林经营和林产品贸易的影响是机遇与挑战并存。参8。     

Technical change in forest sector models: the global forest products model approach

Technical change is developing rapidly in some parts of the forest sector, especially in the pulp and paper industry where wood fiber is being substituted by waste paper. In forest sector models, the processing of wood and other input into products is frequently represented by activity analysis (input–output). In this context, technical change translates in changes over time of the input–output (I–O) coefficients and of the manufacturing cost (labor, capital, and materials, excluding wood and fiber). In the case of the global forest products model, the I–O coefficients and the manufacturing costs are determined empirically from historical data, while correcting for possible reporting errors. The method consists of goal programming. The objective function is the sum of the weighted absolute value of the deviations from estimated and observed production in each country of interest. The constraints express the relationship between the multiple output (sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper) and input (wood, waste paper, other fiber) and prior knowledge on the limits of the I–O coefficients. The paper presents observed technical changes from 1993 to 2010 and projections to 2030 with their consequences for the global forest sector in terms of prices, production and consumption, value added, and carbon sequestration in forest biomass.     

An assessment of hydrological functions of forest ecosystems to support sustainable forest management

Forests are among the most important ecosystems that provide various hydrological services including water production and protection because the vast majority of the water available on the earth comes from forested catchments. The forests provide quality and continuous water yield as well as protective services such as flood control, soil protection, landslide protection, avalanche protection, and prevention against rock falls, which are related to water. However, the quality and quantity of all the forest functions are influenced by forest ecosystem structure and composition such as forest type, tree species, age class distribution, biomass, leaf area, basal area, crown closure, and stand development stages. This study provides an assessment of hydrological services of forest ecosystems through the systematic review of relevant literature till 2018. It mainly focuses on water-forest relations and explains how forest ecosystem structure and composition affect water production, quality, and sustainability. Then, a general framework relating to the integration of hydrological services into forest management is concluded in the context of sustainable management of natural resources.     

Institutional change in the forest sector: trust and mental models

The paper looks, from a perspective of institutional economics, at a process of change of rules and organisational practises in the forestry sector, particularly drawing on a case study of small-scale private forest owners in the Allgäu, Bavaria. It is argued that the process of change may be initiated by the traditional factors mentioned by the various theories of institutional change (technological change, changes in preferences, changes in relative factor prices, etc.). However, the direction of change observed in the short run cannot be understood with the help of efficiency theories of institutional change. Denzau and North (1994) extended those theories by introducing mental models as explanatory variables. Mental models are the interpretations (half-baked theories) people use to understand their environment. As observed, mental models play a crucial role in determining the direction of change. However, the question that arose was: what determines the selection of mental models in an uncertain environment? It is observed that trust plays an important role. Therefore, an extension of the Douglas and North theory is suggested.     

国际模式森林的研究进展

仅就有关国际模式森林研究的最新情况做了简介，对于发达国家在开展这项研究当中所持的态度，布点情况，经费情况，研究内容以及预期目标等进行了介绍，并提出我国在模式森林研究中注意协调几种关系，并采取相应的措施，供林业工业者参考。     

经济林产业现代化的思考

通过长期以来的努力 ,我国经济林产业已得到了很大的发展 ,成为林业产业的主要组成部分。在农村经济发展、农民增收和农业现代化建设及生态工程区经济发展中起到了重要的作用。但当前我国经济林产业仍然存在数量较大质量偏低、生产规模分散、采收及采后管理薄弱和产品消费群体单一、林种产品类同化、科研沿续性不足导致创新乏力等问题 ,困扰我国经济林产业现代化的健康发展。对于我国经济林产业化建设 ,今后更要重视在经营方向上逐步走向规模化和企业化 ;重视适地适树和品种区域化问题 ;实施生产品种良种化工程 ;分类推行经济林栽培技术 ,实施以产量为基础、质量为核心的栽培方式 ;提高经济林果品采后处理水平 ;加强名、特、优、稀、新经济林果品和产品的发展 ,加强新品种和新技术的引进力度 ;强化经济林科研稳定持续开展 ,健全经济林技术推广体系     

森林病虫害灾害经济损失评估指标体系的研究

文章从森林病虫害灾害的自然属性出发，对森林病虫害灾害的经济损失评估指标体系的建立进行了探索。在分析森林生态系统所发挥的功能与效益的基础上，提出了森林病虫害灾害经济损失评估的指标体系。     

森林病虫灾害经济损失计算方法研究

文章以科学态度及操作方法测算出全国11类树种平均林价，建立了森林病虫灾害直接经济损失计算式，提出某区域单位重量的生物量的生态效益可认为是一个相对稳定的值的观点，探讨了两种估算生态效益损失的方法。     

Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget

Analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget between 1990 and 2050 are presented in this article. Forest inventory based carbon budgeting with large scale scenario modelling was used. Altogether 27 countries and 128.5 million hectare of forests are included in the analysis. Two forest management and climate scenarios were applied. In Business as Usual (BaU) scenario national fellings remained at the 1990 level while in Multifunctional (MultiF) scenario fellings increased 0.5–1% per year until 2020, 4 million hectare afforestation program took place between 1990 and 2020 and forest management paid more attention to current trends towards more nature oriented management. Mean annual temperature increased 2.5 °C and annual precipitation 5–15% between 1990 and 2050 in changing climate scenario. Total amount of carbon in 1990 was 12 869 Tg, of which 94% in tree biomass and forest soil, and 6% in wood products in use. In 1995–2000, when BaU scenario was applied under current climatic conditions, net primary production was 409 Tg C year⁻¹, net ecosystem production 164 Tg C year⁻¹, net biome production 84.5 Tg C year⁻¹, and net sequestration of the whole system 87.4 Tg C year⁻¹ which was equal to 7–8% of carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 1990. Carbon stocks in tree biomass, soil and wood products increased in all applied management and climate scenarios, but slower after 2010–2020 than that before. This was due to ageing of forests and higher carbon densities per unit of forest land. Differences in carbon sequestration were very small between applied management scenarios, implying that forest management should be changed more than in this study if aim is to influence carbon sequestration. Applied climate scenarios increased carbon stocks and net carbon sequestration compared to current climatic conditions.     

#Metoo in the Swedish forest sector: testimonies from harassed women on sexualised forms of male control

This study adds to the literature on the gendered culture of the forest sector by examining testimonies of sexual harassment in relation to the gendering of forestry-related competence and organisations and the consequences that the sexualisation of social relations in organisations has, mainly for women. The empirical base of the study comprised testimonies within the campaign #slutavverkat published on Instagram to highlight experiences of sexual harassment of women in the Swedish forest sector. Qualitative content analysis of the testimonies suggested that the situations described in the testimonies in #slutavverkat comprise controlling actions that diminish women’s power in the forest sector. Sexualised forms of male control and harassment thus work to remind women that they are first and foremost a representation of women, rather than of forestry professions and knowledge. In that sense, sexualised forms of male control and harassment are part of, rather than deviating from, the overall gendering of forestry as a men-dominated sphere. The study adds to organisational understandings and policy developments on discrimination and harassment and suggests that researchers and policy-makers interested in reducing inequality in forestry need to pay more attention to issues of harassment and sexualisation of social relations.