世界木材市场浅析

世界原木出口量呈下降趋势;加工的半成品、产品出口量呈增长趋势。木材出口国和地区为北美、欧洲、苏联和东南亚,而进口国和地区主要有日本、欧洲、中国和南朝鲜。文中研究了木材贸易与经济周期的关系以及贸易保护主义和集团化倾向对木材贸易的影响。建议我国木材进出口应实行多元化和协调一致共同对外的方针,同时要优化木材产品结构并抑制某些木材产品的过热消费。     

日本林产品供需现状和发展趋势

介绍了日本原木、锯材、胶合板、单板和集成材等的生产情况,分析了日本包括木片和纸产品在内的各种林产品的进口情况,林产品供需现状和前景,以及林产品贸易伙伴和贸易趋势。最后,结合中国的实际情况,提出发展中国林产工业的建议和策略。     

中国木材进口需求材种结构数量关系分析

文中采用近乎理想的需求系统模型,分析中国木材进口需求的结构性特征及各材种之间的经济学关系。研究发现:进口针叶材的支出弹性明显高于阔叶材,说明进口木材消费规模的扩大将在更大程度上带动针叶材需求;针叶锯材进口需求富有弹性而其他商品进口需求缺乏弹性,尤其是阔叶原木进口需求曲线最为陡峭;不同材种之间的交叉价格弹性为负值,同一材种之间的交叉价格弹性为正值,说明不同材种之间为互补品,而同一材种之间为替代品;粗加工产品进口价格的上涨会引发深加工产品进口量的上升,如果再加上旺盛的进口需求,这一效果将更为明显。     

全球林产品生产、贸易和消费格局

总结了世界林产品的生产、贸易和消费格局.分析了锯材、木制人造板、木浆和纸制品的主要生产国的状况,并比较了它们的效率和生产侧重,讨论了几个涉及林产品生产的理论问题.对中国林产品工业的发展提出了几点建议.     

Possibilities for energy wood procurement in north-west Russia: Assessment of energy wood resources in the Leningrad region

Abstract

Methodology to assess the potential for energy wood procurement in Russia is described in this article and applied to the Leningrad region. Wood from thinnings, logging residues, non-industrial roundwood and residues from sawmilling are considered as sources for energy production. Energy wood available in the region, based on the 2004 actual cut, is approximately 4 million m³. Nearly 86% of this is non-industrial roundwood and felling residues, and 14% is by-products from sawmilling. Almost two-thirds of the non-industrial roundwood and felling residues are in cutting areas and one-third is in central processing yards. Deciduous tree species (birch and aspen) dominate in energy wood, representing about 65% of the total amount of felling residues and non-industrial wood. It is possible to intensify utilization of forest resources and thereby also to increase the use of wood in energy production. The total amount could be 54% higher if the allowable cut was fully utilized and 124% higher if thinnings were also utilized completely. There are, however, significant intraregional differences, as the current rate of utilization of forest resources varies in the region.     

中国与俄罗斯、美国、日本原木检验标准比较研究

木材检验是木材贸易过程中的重要环节,木材检验标准或法规是评价木材材积和质量的重要依据.因采用不同木材检验的检测方法,各国在国际贸易中木材检验结果存在差异.文中对中国《原木检验》、俄罗斯《原木打号印、分类、运输、检量和验收方法》、美国《原木检尺和评等规则》和日本《原木等级和检尺规程》原木检验标准或法规进行比较,分析国内标...     

Potential effects of a Trans-Pacific Partnership on forest industries

This study explored the consequences for the forest sector of a trade agreement between Australia, Canada, Chile, Brunei Darussalam, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam (TPP12), and of an extension to include India, China and the Republic of Korea (TPP15). The forecasts used a partial equilibrium model to predict the effects of reduced trade costs due to tariff elimination and of forest product demand shifts resulting from the macroeconomic impacts of TPP12 and TPP15 predicted by Narayanan and Sharma (http://wtocentre.iift.ac.in/workingpaper/workingpaper14.pdf). The results showed the effects of the agreements on the consumption, production, and trade of roundwood, sawnwood and panels, and pulp and paper, for the countries directly involved in the agreements, the European Union, and the rest of the world (ROW). Under TPP12, the main total welfare gains of wood producers and forest product consumers were in the United States and Vietnam, and the greatest losses in China and Korea. Global welfare gains were considerably larger under TPP15, to the advantage of China, Japan and Korea, but to the detriment of the United States, the European Union and the ROW.     

中国主要林产品海外市场贸易政策变动分析

2005年以来在国际林产品贸易中木材来源问题受到越来越多的关注,重要林产品进口国纷纷出台相关法规以确保进口林产品木材来源的可靠性。作为林产品国际贸易链重要组成部分的中国林业产业,有必要充分了解这些市场新要求,提升企业管理水平,以确保在林产品国际市场上的综合竞争优势。文中比较分析了近些年新出台的主要林产品国际贸易规则及对中国的潜在影响。     

An analysis of Greek wood and wood product imports: Evidence from the linear quadratic aids

The consumption of wood and wood products in Greece is based greatly on imports necessitating every year a great proportion of public expenditures. The study of wood and wood product imports consequently, is important to the national economy and can be a useful guide for the forest farms, wood industries and wood firms. In this paper the Greek aggregate import demand for Unprocessed wood (such as logs) Processed wood (such as sawn wood), Veneer Crafts (such as veneer sheets) and Wood Manufactures during the period 1969–2001 is empirically analysed using the linear approximation of quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) model. Imports of Unprocessed wood, Veneer Crafts and Wood Manufactures are found to be price-elastic, in contrast to Processed wood imports. Processed wood, Veneer Crafts and Wood Manufacture imports are found to be expenditure-elastic while Unprocessed wood is found to be an inferior good. Substitution possibilities are found to be significant between Veneer Crafts and all the remaining wood imports and between Processed wood and Unprocessed wood.     

桉树木材加工利用研究现状

本文对桉树木材的性质、桉木在采伐和加工过程中易出现的问题、实木加工技术与利用及其木材产品市场进行了阐述,以期为我国提高桉树木材价值提供参考。     

中国主要木制品国际贸易现状和趋势

我国加入世界贸易组织后,大量木制品开始走出国门,一定程度上提高了我国木制品的世界影响力与竞争力,对塑造民族品牌起到了积极作用。从全球范围内来看,对于木制品的需求逐步上升,尤其是美国、日本、欧盟等国家和地区,这给我国木制品加工企业带来了前所未有的机遇。然而,我国木制品在走向世界的过程中,也遇到了相关困难及贸易壁垒,这些都需要国内木制品企业进行有效应对,以便更好地适应新形势下的国际木制品市场需求。简述了世界和我国木制品及贸易的基本情况,分析了我国木制品拓展国际市场面临的机遇和挑战,在此基础上,提出了新形势下我国木制品深化发展的基本策略。     

Effect of aluminum compound addition on graphitization of wood charcoal by direct electric pulse heating method

The catalytic effect of aluminum on graphitization of wood charcoal was examined. Wood charcoal impregnated with aluminum triisopropoxide to various levels was subjected to direct electric pulse heating. Electric conductivity and heat conductivity of the products showed strong, systematic dependence on the amount of aluminum added. X-ray diffractometry indicated that these effects result from a larger degree of graphitization. Because the amount of aluminum in the final product was negligible, aluminum, before being lost by vaporization, apparently catalyzed graphitization at a lower temperature than is used for conventional treatments.Part of this report was presented at the 17th Annual Meeting of the Association of Wood Processing and Technology, November 1999; the 11th MRS-J Annual Meeting, Kawasaki, December 1999; and the 50th Annual Meeting of the Japan Wood Research Association, April 2000     

日本的木材流通

日本木材流通的特点是: 国产材的开发利用与进口外材并举。60年代后, 进口材在总需材量中所占比重越来越大; 原木在总进口材中所占比重越来越小。这是当前日本林业生产、木材加工和流通领域所面临的新问题。     

印度尼西亚实木加工业的发展及其影响因素

近30年来,印尼首次发展成为世界上第二大工业圆材出口国和最大的胶合板出口国。分析促进印尼实木业发展的因素,主要得益于其丰富的森林资源,实木加工业处于印尼实木产品出口快速增长期,具有廉价的、专业或半专业化的劳动力,对天然林工业圆材征收较低的立木税,促进实木业发展的林业贸易和工业政策,有利的地区性市场结构。还分析了印尼实木加工业的发展前景。     

An economic model of international wood supply,forest stock and forest area change

Abstract

Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock and the annual change of forest area. The results suggest that global forest area would decline by 477 million ha between 1999 and 2030, with the largest decline in Asia and Africa. However, global forest stock would increase by 25 billion?m³, with the largest increase in Europe, and North and Central America. Higher global harvests and lower prices were predicted than those predicted in the past with exogenous timber supply assumptions.     

Technical change in forest sector models: the global forest products model approach

Technical change is developing rapidly in some parts of the forest sector, especially in the pulp and paper industry where wood fiber is being substituted by waste paper. In forest sector models, the processing of wood and other input into products is frequently represented by activity analysis (input–output). In this context, technical change translates in changes over time of the input–output (I–O) coefficients and of the manufacturing cost (labor, capital, and materials, excluding wood and fiber). In the case of the global forest products model, the I–O coefficients and the manufacturing costs are determined empirically from historical data, while correcting for possible reporting errors. The method consists of goal programming. The objective function is the sum of the weighted absolute value of the deviations from estimated and observed production in each country of interest. The constraints express the relationship between the multiple output (sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper) and input (wood, waste paper, other fiber) and prior knowledge on the limits of the I–O coefficients. The paper presents observed technical changes from 1993 to 2010 and projections to 2030 with their consequences for the global forest sector in terms of prices, production and consumption, value added, and carbon sequestration in forest biomass.     

Leakage of forest harvest changes in a small open economy: case Norway

The effect of changes in roundwood harvests in Norway on the harvests in rest of the world is examined using a global forest sector model. About 60–100% of the harvest change in Norway is offset by an opposite change in the rest of the world. Such leakage rates vary over time, wood category, background scenario, and the size of the harvest change. Asymmetries between the effects of increasing and decreasing the harvests also exist. Hence, the magnitude of leakage rate is case specific, though considerable. Under tightening wood supply there is less need/room to respond to harvest increase/decrease in Norway with incremental/reduced harvests elsewhere. When the use of global forest resources intensifies with increasing wood demand in the future, leakage rates can be smaller than today. It is important to account for harvest leakage in order to avoid overestimating the climate benefits of policies that decrease or increase roundwood harvests. For instance, for full carbon sequestration benefits of increasing harvests for harvested wood products, creating fresh additional demand for these products should be prioritized. Else the origin of raw material and the place of production for these products may change instead of their stock.     

Impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea

This study estimated the impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea using vector autoregressive model. The first objective is to analyze whether there is any causal relationship between change in the currency value and changes in the import quantities of forest products in Korea. Assuming that there is any causal relationship, the second objective is to evaluate the dynamics of the impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea. The causal relationship was analyzed by the causality test of Granger. The relationship between the currency value and the import quantity was represented by vector autoregressive model. And the dynamics were evaluated by variance decomposition analysis and impulse response analysis. Change in the currency value causes change in the hardwood roundwood import quantity in Korea. In the model of the hardwood roundwood import quantity, after 6 months, the currency value change accounts for approximately 10% of variation in the import quantity. On the other hand, the impact of a shock to the currency value is significant for approximately 10 months on the import quantity of hardwood roundwood in Korea.     

我国木材进口分析

中国是世界上木材及木制品的生产大国,也是消费大国,又是木材进口大国,我国木材进口贸易充满了机会和挑战。通过具体分析近年我国原木、锯材、胶合板进口的品种、数量和贸易方式的变化,把握未来的发展趋势,木材经营企业一方面要关注全球木材贸易走向,快速反应,坚持多品种,小批量的经营原则。同时,还应该积极实施走出去战略,建立稳定资源渠道,占领木材进口市场竞争制高点。     

正交胶合木胶合性能研究现状及展望

胶合性能是胶合木制品的重要性能之一。在正交胶合木（CLT）中木材特征、胶黏剂性能以及木材与胶黏剂之间界面性能共同决定了正交胶合木的胶合性能。木材作为一种天然各向异性材料,其纹理方向不同,造成组坯方式对于胶合性能影响巨大。在胶合性能测试中,取样尺寸、取样形状对于胶合性能的测试结果都有一定的影响。胶合界面性能表征方面的研究正逐渐兴起,但是针对CLT胶合界面性能表征的相关研究报道并不多。有关CLT胶合的研究多集中在胶黏剂和胶合工艺方面,而针对不同锯材单元的特性对胶合性能尤其是耐久性影响的研究尚少有报道。文中基于现有研究对CLT胶合界面性能影响因素进行总结,梳理对比CLT胶合性能测试方法以及胶合界面性能表征技术,并对今后研究方向提出意见和建议。