The potential of REDD+ for carbon sequestration in tropical forests: Supply curves for carbon storage for Kalimantan,Indonesia

We study the potential of tropical multi-age multi-species forests for sequestering carbon in response to financial incentives from REDD+. Following existing carbon crediting schemes, the use of reduced impact logging techniques (RIL) allows a forest manager to apply for carbon credits whereas conventional logging (CL) does not. This paper is the first to develop a Hartman model with selective cutting in this setting that takes additionality of carbon sequestration explicitly into account. We apply the model using data for Kalimantan, Indonesia, for both private and government forest managers. The latter have a lower discount rate and are exempt from taxes. RIL leads to less damages on the residual stand than CL and has lower variable but higher fixed costs. We find that a system of carbon credits through REDD+ can increase carbon stored per hectare by 15.8% if the forest is privately managed and by 22% under government management if the carbon price equals the average 2015 price in the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme. Interestingly, awarding carbon credits to carbon stored in end-use wood products does not increase the amount of carbon stored, nor Land Expectation Value.     

Opportunities for Small-Scale Forestry in Carbon Markets

This paper presents an explanatory framework of how greenhouse gas emissions offsets produced from natural and planted forests (‘carbon forestry’) feature in voluntary and regulated carbon markets. An introduction to the convoluted policy malaise surrounding the use of forests in regulated carbon markets is also presented. Whilst there are many opportunities and potential benefits of using forests to produce offsets, relatively few carbon forestry projects currently exist, particularly in regulated carbon markets. This seems due to financial, institutional and administrative obstacles, with prohibitive transaction costs often cited as the most prominent constraint to expanded carbon forestry development. The papers in this special issue present a wide coverage of carbon forestry development policy issues. The special issue provides a unique insight into the state of carbon forestry globally and highlights the pressing need for policy and market reform to facilitate more sustainable carbon forestry development.     

Inclusion of forestry offsets in emission trading schemes: insights from global expertsOA

Emissions trading schemes(ETSs) have been a central component of international climate change policies, as a carbon pricing tool to achieve emissions reduction targets. Forest carbon offset credits have been leveraged in many ETSs to efficiently meet emission reduction targets,yet there is little knowledge about the perceptions, experiences, and challenges associated with the forest carbon offsetting in existing and pilot ETS. Given that the future inclusion of forest carbon offset in ETS manage...     

Effects of permanence requirements on afforestation choices for carbon sequestration for Ontario, Canada

This study examines the economic and spatial impacts of afforestation choices for carbon sequestration in Ontario, Canada when the non-permanence of forestry carbon offsets is taken into consideration. We test six scenarios including three long-term projects with red pine, Norway spruce and hybrid poplar plantations and three shorter term hybrid poplar scenarios that produce temporary carbon emission offsets. We convert the break-even costs of sequestering carbon to a permanent carbon offset equivalent and analyze the possible geographical implications of the choices across eastern, southern and central Ontario, Canada.The most financially viable scenarios show a relatively large part of central Ontario with attractive choices at a 4% discount rate but a much smaller area at an 8% rate. The assumption about the future price evolution of temporary carbon offsets is one of the biggest factors that influence the attractiveness of these choices. At the 4% discount rate and the assumption of rising prices of permanent carbon offsets, the scenarios that store carbon for long periods appear to be the least-costly option. Hybrid poplar appears as the best choice in southern Ontario and a mix of conifer species and hybrid poplar in the central and northern parts. When future prices of temporary carbon offsets are assumed to decline, temporary hybrid poplar projects appear to be more attractive in the southern and eastern parts of the province. The variety of alternative scenario choices also depends on the discount rate and future price expectations for temporary carbon offsets. For a relatively narrow deviation of the carbon offset price (±$0.6 t^-1 CO₂), only 4% to 9.2% of the total 5.8 million ha area would have one or more potentially viable alternative scenarios at the 4% discount rate and almost zero alternatives at the 8% rate. Higher discount rates lead to fewer attractive choices, suggesting that landowners would be left with very few options when trying to maximize net returns from plantations.     

The New Zealand forestry sector's experience in providing carbon sequestration services under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, 2008 to 2012

The New Zealand government established the New Zealand Emissions Trading scheme (NZ ETS) as the primary mechanism for achieving New Zealand's Kyoto obligations between 2008 and 2012. The legislation made planted forests the first sector to participate in the NZ ETS, starting in 2008. At the same time, other schemes to encourage carbon sequestration through forestry were also implemented.The implementation of the NZ ETS has focussed on meeting New Zealand's international obligations between 2008 and 2012 at minimum cost, and there is little evidence it has led to any reduction in greenhouse gas emissions or investment in new planted forests in New Zealand. The NZ ETS has been most effective at facilitating the transfer of international (Kyoto compliant) carbon credits from emitters to the New Zealand government. These credits have been used to partially meet New Zealand's obligations for the first Kyoto commitment period, allowing other units to be carried over to meet obligations from 2013 to 2020.The paper shows that participation in the NZ ETS is unlikely to contribute a long-term positive impact on profitability of commercial forestry, and that the liabilities created through participation in the NZ ETS do not assist the development of the forestry sector in New Zealand. The paper suggests that the NZ ETS is not the correct policy instrument to encourage carbon sequestration by planted forests.     

The economics of the carbon sequestration potential of plantation forestry in south-western Uganda

This study assessed the amount of carbon stored and the economic viability of the small-scale Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) carbon offsets in Pinus caribaea and Eucalyptus grandis plantations under varying rotations. Volume equations were used to estimate carbon stocks and merchantable wood volume in the plantations, while net present value (NPV) and annual equivalent value (AEV) were used as measures of profitability at the optimum economic rotation age as well as at the CDM-defined crediting period of 20 years. The findings show that over a 20-year rotation, E. grandis and P. caribaea plantations sequestered 638 and 418 t CO₂-e ha^?1, respectively. The NPVs of E. grandis and P. caribaea with carbon credits over the CDM carbon-crediting period of 20 years were US$2 540 ha^?1 and US$1 814 ha^?1, respectively. This is higher than the NPVs without carbon credits of US$1 543 ha^?1 and US$1 390 ha^?1 for E. grandis and P. caribaea, respectively. The AEV of E. grandis harvested at its optimal economic rotation of 10 years was US$316 ha^?1. This is slightly higher than the AEV of US$298 ha^?1, utilising the CDM carbon-crediting period of 20 years. In contrast, the AEV of P. caribaea under the 20-year CDM carbon-crediting period was higher than harvesting at the optimal economic rotation of 16 years without carbon credits. When the average CDM contract establishment costs exceed US$500 ha^?1 and US$1 000 ha^?1 for P. caribaea and E. grandis woodlots, respectively, it is not economically viable for one to participate in the CDM forest carbon offsets programme. In conclusion, the study results indicate that whereas E. grandis has a higher biological potential to sequester carbon than P. caribaea, it is currently not economically viable for participation in the CDM forest carbon offset scheme. In contrast, it is economically viable for P. caribaea plantations to participate in the CDM, if the CDM contract establishment costs are low.     

Growing common plantation tree species in Kenya for sale of carbon and wood supply: what is the best bet?

The introduction of carbon finance as an incentive in forestry farming has a potential of increasing the amount of carbon sequestered. However, this has created a daunting task among investors in forestry to optimise the joint production of wood and carbon sequestration. For instance, investors might find it profitable to give up some timber returns in exchange for carbon credits. This study evaluated expected income from growing Cupressus lusitanica Mill., Pinus patula Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham., Eucalyptus saligna Sm. and Juniperus procera Hochst. ex Endl. for wood and/or the carbon market in central Kenya. The global average unit price of carbon and stumpage royalty were used to estimate expected returns from sale of carbon credits and wood, respectively. There were significant differences (p < 0.01) in the expected amount of income from sale of carbon and wood among the four species. Specifically, at economic rotation of 30 years with stand density of 532 trees ha^?1 P. patula and C. lusitanica yielded US$28 050 and US$23 650, respectively, from sale of carbon compared with US$59 000 and US$51 000, respectively, from sale of wood. This was twice the value investors receive from clear-felling as compared with sales from carbon. Similarly, at economic rotation of 33 years with stand density of 150 trees ha^?1, a forest investor in E. saligna would earn US$15 400 from sale of carbon compared with US$33 000 from sale of wood. Overall, the amount expected to be realised from sale of carbon was lower compared with that from sale of wood. This demonstrates that the price dynamics of carbon offsets in the voluntary and the compliance markets need to remain competitive and attractive for the forest owners to give up some timber returns in exchange for carbon income or to modify forest management regulation in order to increase carbon sequestration.     

Policy design for forest carbon sequestration: A review of the literature

Forest carbon enhancement provides a low-cost opportunity in climate policy, but needs efficient policy design to be implemented. This paper reviews studies in economics on efficient design of policies for forest carbon sequestration and compares their findings against design systems in practice. Specific design problems are associated with the heterogeneity of landowners, uncertainty, additionality, and permanence in carbon projects. Different types of discounting of the value of the forest carbon sink compared with emissions abatement are suggested in the literature for management of most design problems, together with optimal contract design and emissions baselines for managing additionality and permanence in carbon sequestration. Design systems in practice, where forest carbon corresponds to 0.5% of all carbon volume subject to a pricing mechanism, mainly rely on additionality tests by approved standards on a project-by-project basis, and on buffer credits for management of permanence. Further development of forest carbon sinks as offsets in voluntary and compliance markets can be facilitated by applying tools for contract design and offset baseline management recommended in the literature.     

关于建立云南省林业碳汇抵消碳排放体系的探讨

云南这样的西部欠发达省份实施工业化道路不可避免地遇到了节能减排瓶颈,如何破解这一矛盾?通过发展林业,发挥森林在固碳增汇方面的独特作用,可以达到间接减排目的。本文探讨了云南建立林业碳汇体系的理论、方法和途径。     

The role of government in operationalising markets for REDD + in Indonesia

The global climate initiative Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD +) initially included carbon markets as one potential policy mechanism to finance a range of forestry projects in developing countries. Indonesia was an early leader on REDD +, and set up the regulatory frameworks and monitoring systems to support demonstration projects that could trade credits in voluntary carbon markets. This article applies a neoliberal governmentality framework to evaluate the development of REDD + market institutions in Indonesia during the Readiness period between 2008 and 2013. It critiques the role of the state in this process, and how the authority of public agencies shapes the actions of private subjects. The case of Indonesia indicates a pivotal role for government agencies at multiple levels in integrating the operation of REDD + market activities within a supportive regime of forest and land management. Critical to this process was legislation to trade in forest carbon and obtain project licenses, devolved land-use planning and forest management that could support commercial activities, and robust MRV surveillance systems to oversee on-ground activities. Despite these efforts, projects were often subject to an uncertain and highly contested forest management regime, undermining attempts to demonstrate the viability of operationalising market mechanisms at the local scale.     

Estimation and economic evaluation of aboveground carbon storage of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tectona grandis</Emphasis> plantations in Western Panama

Tropical tree plantations may play an important role in mitigating CO₂ emissions through their potential to capture and sequester carbon from the atmosphere. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) as well as voluntary initiatives provide economic incentives for afforestation and reforestation efforts through the generation and sale of carbon credits. The objectives of our study were to measure the carbon (C) storage potential of 1, 2 and 10-years old Tectona grandis plantations in the province of Chiriquí, Western Panama and to calculate the monetary value of aboveground C storage if sold as Certified Emission Reduction (CER) carbon credits. The average aboveground C storage ranged from 2.9 Mg C ha⁻¹ in the 1-year-old plantations to 40.7 Mg C ha⁻¹ in the 10-year-old plantations. Using regression analysis we estimated the potential aboveground C storage of the teak plantation over a 20 year rotation period. The CO₂-storage over this period amounted to 191.1 Mg CO₂ ha⁻¹. The discounted revenues that could be obtained by issuance of carbon credits during a 20 year rotation period were about US$460 for temporary CER and US$560 for long-term CER, and thus, contribute to a minor extent (1%) to overall revenues, only.     

Potential of Community-Based Forest Management to Mitigate Climate Change in the Philippines

Community-based forest management (CBFM) is the principal strategy in managing inhabited ‘forest land’ in the Philippines. It involves the participation of local communities in various forestry activities to achieve sustainable forestry, advance social justice and improve socioeconomic welfare, and promote a stable and healthy environment. This paper analyses the potential benefits of agroforestry farms in CBFM sites to mitigate climate change. The incorporation of trees in farms and landscapes has led to enhanced carbon storage and sequestration. Half a million hectares of agroforestry farms in CBFM sites in the Philippines are estimated to store 25 MtC while sequestering 2.7 MtC annually. Lessons are drawn from three carbon sequestration projects under development using CBFM as the main approach. Income from carbon credits is not sufficient to recover the cost of tree planting. The transaction costs of forestry CDM projects are substantial and could prove to be the greatest barrier to project fruition. Government institutions must find ways to encourage project developers by simplifying rules and regulations for forestry carbon projects. Forest definition must be assessed. Project developers and the government could also explore the voluntary carbon market which is more flexible than the CDM market. Policy and technical studies must be conducted to ascertain the potential of the REDD for CBFM sites in the country.     

Norwegian family forest owners' willingness to participate in carbon offset programs

Forests act as carbon sinks and can make significant contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. In Norway, family forest owners own 80% of productive forestland and play a central role in the management of the country's forests. Yet little is known about whether these landowners would be interested in increasing carbon sequestration on their land and selling carbon credits. Only a handful of studies have examined the factors that motivate family forest owners to participate in carbon offset programs, and all of these studies have been conducted in the United States. This study addresses this information gap using data from a mail survey of 1500 Norwegian family forest owners. A logistic regression model was developed to examine the effect of various carbon program, forestland, and landowner characteristics on participation in a hypothetical carbon offset program. Results suggest that there is a considerable amount of interest among Norwegian family forest owners and that the most important predictors of participation are payment amount offered, perceived barriers posed by management actions, importance placed on non-market forest amenities, and attitudes towards climate change.     

Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on boreal forest climate change mitigation

? Context

The Kyoto Protocol allows the use of domestic forest carbon sequestration to offset emissions to a limited degree, while bioenergy as an unlimited emission reduction option receives substantial financial support in many countries.

? Aim

The primary objective of this study was to analyze (1) whether these limits on forest carbon sequestration would be binding, thereby leading to inefficient mitigation, and (2) the total potential effect of the protocol on the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in the forest sector.

? Methods

A partial equilibrium model of the Norwegian forest sector was used to quantify the GHG fluxes in a base scenario with no climate policy, a Kyoto Protocol policy (KP policy), and a policy with no cap on forest carbon sequestration (FC policy), assuming that the policies apply the rest of the century.

? Results

Carbon offsets are higher under the KP policy than in the base scenario and likewise higher than under the FC policy in the short run, but the KP policy fails to utilize the forest carbon sequestration potential in the long run as it provides considerably less incentives to invest in forestry than the FC policy.

? Conclusion

The KP increases the Norwegian forest sector’s climate change mitigation compared to no climate policy but less in the long run than a carbon policy with no cap on forest carbon credits.     

千岛湖林业碳汇项目可行性探析

简要介绍了林业碳汇项目的背景,阐述了林业碳汇的概念。分析认为,千岛湖森林碳汇容量大、潜力大,是开展林业碳汇贸易的最佳区域。同时,存在树种结构不合理以及森林资源管护难度大等问题,对项目发展形成了制约。进而提出强化森林经营,调整林分结构,加强资源管护,加大科研力度,实施碳汇贸易,提高碳汇效益等建议。     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of subsidy schemes for industrial timber development and carbon sequestration in Japanese forest plantations

This study uses simulations to investigate the effects of implementing two different Japanese forestry subsidy systems on timber production and carbon stock, and examines the consequences for harvesting strategies. An existing Local Yield Table Construction System (LYCS), a wood conversion algorithm, and a harvesting cost model were used in the simulations to test the applicability of different subsidies to the thinning of stands. Using forest inventory data collected by local government staff, simulation output was used to calculate forestry profits, carbon stocks, subsidies, the amount of labor required, and the cost effectiveness of investing in subsidies. By comparing the output of simulations based on two scenarios, we found that both the clear-cutting area and the amount of harvested timber were larger under Scenario 2, in which the rules governing subsidy allocations are more relaxed, than under Scenario 1, in which the rules are more restrictive. Because the harvested timber under Scenario 1 was mainly produced by clear-cutting, the forestry profits and the subsidy predicted in the early period of the simulation, were larger under Scenario 1 than under Scenario 2. In contrast, the carbon stock was larger under Scenario 2 than under Scenario 1. The simulation model is likely to be useful for improving Plan-Do-Check-Act cyclesimplemented in Japanese forest management systems.     

低碳经济下的林业发展策略研究

低碳经济奉行的是保护环境和经济利益的双赢政策,而森林作为地球之肺,蕴含着极其丰富的碳。因此,低碳经济时代林业建设的关键就是如何树立起大林业观,并与时俱进,将碳汇林业大力发展起来,从而推动经济社会的可持续发展。     

Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate

When included as part of a larger greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction program, forest offsets may provide low-cost opportunities for GHG mitigation. One barrier to including forest offsets in climate policy is the risk of reversal, the intentional or unintentional release of carbon back to the atmosphere due to storms, fire, pests, land use decisions, and many other factors. To address this shortcoming, a variety of different strategies have emerged to minimize either the risk or the financial and environmental implications of reversal. These strategies range from management decisions made at the individual stand level to buffers and set-asides that function across entire trading programs. For such strategies to work, the actual risk and magnitude of potential reversals need to be clearly understood. In this paper we examine three factors that are likely to influence reversal risk: natural disturbances (such as storms, fire, and insect outbreaks), climate change, and landowner behavior. Although increases in atmospheric CO₂ and to a lesser extent warming will likely bring benefits to some forest ecosystems, temperature stress may result in others. Furthermore, optimism based on experimental results of physiology and growth must be tempered with knowledge that future large-scale disturbances and extreme weather events are also likely to increase. At the individual project level, management strategies such as manipulation of forest structure, age, and composition can be used to influence carbon sequestration and reversal risk. Because some management strategies have the potential to maximize risk or carbon objectives at the expense of the other, policymakers should ensure that forest offset policies and programs do not provide the singular incentive to maximize carbon storage. Given the scale and magnitude of potential disturbance events in the future, however, management decisions at the individual project level may be insufficient to adequately address reversal risk; other, non-silvicultural strategies and policy mechanisms may be necessary. We conclude with a brief review of policy mechanisms that have been developed or proposed to help manage or mitigate reversal risk at both individual project and policy-wide scales.     

中国CDM林业碳汇项目的管理政策研究

气候变化是当前全球面临的共同挑战,《京都议定书》规定了三种灵活机制,以促进发达国家在2008~2012年的第一承诺期内率先采取行动来缓解气候变暖趋势。其中,实施清洁发展机制(CDM)下的造林再造林碳汇项目是发达国家和发展中国家共同应对气候变化的一种选择。文章介绍了林业碳汇项目产生的背景,阐述了国内外对林碳汇概念的不同表述,分析了在我国对林业碳汇政策的研究,提出了我国林业碳汇管理政策的不足。     

碳中和战略下林业碳汇引入生态修复司法之效能探究

2022年以来,部分法院接力推动林业碳汇引入生态修复司法的进程,并最终得到司法解释的认可,形成了林业碳汇替代性赔偿方案。林业碳汇交易系实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要路径,生态环境司法也提出要服务碳达峰、碳中和的实现。在此背景下,分析该方案的实践样态,探查林业碳汇引入生态修复司法的现实需求、原有制度的缺陷以及引入基础,揭示林业碳汇替代性赔偿方案的潜在效能,特别是其对碳达峰、碳中和战略的重要意义,从而尝试给出加速林业碳汇法律化进程,明确林业碳汇替代性赔偿方案的属性及实用领域等针对性优化建议。