Risk factors for BSE-infections in Lower Saxony, Germany

In order to generate data on the cattle population and farm management in the state of Lower Saxony, Germany, a basic demographic survey was conducted. Afterwards these BSE-free farms as a reference population were compared with the population on BSE farms to identify risk factors for BSE infections. A variety of risk factors for BSE were reviewed, including the import of cattle from the United Kingdom, commercial foodstuff, dairy farming, herd size and cross-contamination with foodstuff for other farm animals. For the basic demographic survey of the reference, a questionnaire was mailed to a representative sample of cattle farms in Lower Saxony where BSE cattle had not occurred before the sample was taken. Distribution of risk factors within this reference population (n=731) and the BSE population (n=49) were compared following the concept of indirect standardisation in stratified populations. The size of farms was used as the stratification variable, with three strata. Under the same rate as in the reference population, the portion of Red Holstein cattle breed was four fold higher than in the BSE population (SER=4.03; p=0.0003). Milk replacer was fed 1.41 times more often on BSE farms (p=0.0478). However, the use of concentrated foodstuff for pigs (SER=0.21) was significantly less frequent in the BSE population than expected (p=0.0001), whereas the husbandry of sheep, goats or game animals seemed to increase the risk of BSE 2.85 times (p=0.0413). There were no significant differences between the two populations concerning the purchase of cattle (p=0.1514) and the use of concentrated feed for calves during the 1990s (p=0.6212). This is an epidemiological indication of increased susceptibility of Red Holstein cattle to BSE. However, this study did not confirm the assumption that the use of commercial foodstuff other than milk replacer or the purchase of cattle increases the risk of BSE infection. It nevertheless remains likely that commercial foodstuffs such as concentrated feed for calves were risk factors in Germany as well.     

Frequency of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli in cattle at a breeding farm and at a slaughterhouse in Japan

To investigate the frequency of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infected calves at a breeding farm and cattle at a slaughterhouse in Tohoku area of Japan, the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for detection of genes for Shiga toxin(s). The fecal samples from a total of 204 calves and 306 cattle were examined. The prevalence rates in calves less than 2 months of age, cattle 2-8 months of age, and adults greater than 1 year of age were 39.4, 78.9, and 40.8%, respectively. Detection frequency of STEC in the fecal specimens from calves aged 0-8 months was not different among the breeds of cattle (Holstein: H, Japanese black cattle: B, and F1: HxB). On the other hand, for calves over 12 months of age, the frequency of STEC in Japanese black cattle and F1 were significantly higher than in Holstein cattle. Serogroups of STEC usually identified in human cases of food poisoning (O157, O26, and O111) were not frequently found in the feces of the cattle.     

Potential Risk Factors Associated with Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Cattle from Schleswig‐Holstein,Germany

Since the first detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in homebred cattle in Germany on 26 November 2000, 382 cases have been confirmed until 30 September 2005. Thirty‐two of these cases were reported from the Federal State of Schleswig‐Holstein (SH). There are hypotheses on the routes of infection for German cattle, but only few efforts have been made to assess potential risk factors by epidemiological studies. The purpose of this study was to identify potential risk factors at the farm level for the occurrence of BSE in cattle in SH. By applying the method of indirect standardization, the prevalence of various structural and management parameters of BSE‐affected farms in SH was compared with the prevalence of these parameters in a standard population of cattle farms from SH. The data describing the standard population were obtained by a cross‐sectional study performed in SH in 2003. Data of the BSE case population were available from the central German BSE case database. A possible association of the occurrence of BSE with the feeding of milk replacers to calves was observed. There was a clear indication that the occurrence of BSE was associated with the presence of pigs and/or poultry on the farm. This finding suggests that cross‐contamination of feed or cross‐exposition may have occurred in SH. The results obtained using the indirect standardization analysis were validated by multiple logistic regression. This study indicates that the feedborne path has been the principal route of transmission for the BSE agent in SH.     

Potential risk factors associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle from Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Since the first detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in homebred cattle in Germany on 26 November 2000, 382 cases have been confirmed until 30 September 2005. Thirty-two of these cases were reported from the Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein (SH). There are hypotheses on the routes of infection for German cattle, but only few efforts have been made to assess potential risk factors by epidemiological studies. The purpose of this study was to identify potential risk factors at the farm level for the occurrence of BSE in cattle in SH. By applying the method of indirect standardization, the prevalence of various structural and management parameters of BSE-affected farms in SH was compared with the prevalence of these parameters in a standard population of cattle farms from SH. The data describing the standard population were obtained by a cross-sectional study performed in SH in 2003. Data of the BSE case population were available from the central German BSE case database. A possible association of the occurrence of BSE with the feeding of milk replacers to calves was observed. There was a clear indication that the occurrence of BSE was associated with the presence of pigs and/or poultry on the farm. This finding suggests that cross-contamination of feed or cross-exposition may have occurred in SH. The results obtained using the indirect standardization analysis were validated by multiple logistic regression. This study indicates that the feedborne path has been the principal route of transmission for the BSE agent in SH.     

Modelling the expected numbers of preclinical and clinical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Switzerland.

The objective of this study was to model the expected numbers of cattle incubating bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the numbers of clinical cases of BSE in the Swiss cattle population between 1984 and 2005. The results were compared with the observed number of clinical BSE cases and with the results of a culling and testing scheme on herdmates of cattle with BSE. The age distribution of the Swiss cattle population, the age-at-death distribution of the first 235 BSE cases and exposure information were used to calculate the expected number of infected cattle in each birth cohort and the resulting numbers of clinical cases and survivors incubating the disease for each year. The model which did not assume any under-reporting of cases fitted the observed epidemic curve of clinical cases reasonably well, and predicted that the Swiss BSE epidemic would come to an end between 2003 and 2005. The age of survivors incubating BSE is increasing. The higher than expected incidence of subclinical cases observed in animals from the culling scheme is most probably the result of the heterogeneous distribution of infected animals and affected herds in the population. The results of the model need to be taken into account when designing surveillance and testing schemes for BSE.     

How the surveillance system may bias the results of analytical epidemiological studies on BSE: prevalence among dairy versus beef suckler cattle breeds in France

Until recently, epidemiological studies on Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) were based on Mandatory Reporting Systems (MRS) of clinically suspect bovines only, but rapid diagnostic tests were validated in 1999 and are used for targeted surveillance in Switzerland, France and other countries, as a complementary and secondary tool. Data on 30491 cattle issued from a French pilot program targeted at cattle having died on the farm, subjected to euthanasia or sent for emergency slaughter, did not show any significant difference in BSE risk between dairy and beef suckler breeds. The data also revealed that part of the clinical cases of BSE escaped the MRS, which permitted to detect more dairy than beef suckler affected cattle compared to the targeted surveillance in the same period (from August to December 2000) and region (Bretagne, Pays de la Loire and Basse Normandie regions). Analyzing together the data of the targeted surveillance and mandatory reporting system programs with a non-conditional logistic regression, we found that the odds of a dead cow being a BSE case among all dead cattle was 3.2 times higher for dairy breeds compared to beef suckler breeds. This confirmed British findings but points out to the fact that considering either MRS or targeted surveillance data alone may possibly create biases in epidemiological studies on BSE.     

Review on the epidemiology and dynamics of BSE epidemics

The paper describes how the comprehensive surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and studies carried out on these data has enhanced our knowledge of the epidemiology of BSE. Around 7, 000 BSE cases were detected through the screening of about 50 million cattle with rapid tests in Europe. It confirmed that the clinical surveillance had a poor capacity to detect cases, and also showed the discrepancy of this passive surveillance efficiency between regions and production types (dairy/beef). Other risk factors for BSE were being in a dairy herd (three times more than beef), having a young age at first calving (for dairy cattle), being autumn-born (dairy and beef), and being in a herd with a very high milk yield. These findings focus the risk on the feeding regimen of calves/heifers. Several epidemiological studies across countries suggest that the feedborne source related to meat and bone meal (MBM) is the only substantiated route of infection - even after the feed ban -, while it is not possible to exclude maternal transmission or milk replacers as a source of some infections. In most European countries, the average age of the cases is increasing over time and the prevalence decreasing, which reflects the effectiveness of control measures. Consistent results on the trend of the epidemic were obtained using back-calculation modelling, the R(0) approach and Age-Period-Cohort models. Furthermore, active surveillance also resulted in the finding of atypical cases. These are distinct from previously found BSE and classified in two different forms based on biochemical characteristics; their prevalence is very low (36 cases up to 1st September 2007), affected animals were old and some of them displayed clinical signs. The origin and possibility of natural transmission is unknown.     

TSE surveillance in small ruminants and pigs: a pilot study

Switzerland is controlling Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSE) in cattle (BSE) and small ruminants (scrapie). Since BSE is potentially transmissible to sheep, goats or pigs through feeding of contaminated meat and bone meal, implementation of an active surveillance programme for TSE in these species is discussed. The aim of this pilot study was to obtain preliminary data on the prevalence ofTSE and other neurological disorders in these populations. For that purpose, a total of 398 perished and 825 slaughtered adult small ruminants and pigs was examined for the presence of neuropathological changes. None of these animals revealed positive for TSE. However, the investigations demonstrated that perished sheep and goats exhibited a higher prevalence of relevant neuropathological changes when compared with slaughtered animals. From these results, it is concluded that perished small ruminants are probably a risk population for TSE and should be considered as target populations for an active surveillance programme.     

Heartwater. An overview of the clinical signs, susceptibility and differential diagnoses of the disease in domestic ruminants

Heartwater is a frequently fatal tick-borne disease of ruminants caused by Cowdria ruminantium. In domestic ruminants the incubation period varies considerably and depends on the route of infection, virulence of the isolate and amount of infective material administered. Adult cattle of all breeds appear to be equally susceptible to heartwater. It is generally accepted that calves up to the age of 3 weeks have a high degree of natural resistance which is not related to the immune status of the dam. Nervous symptoms are frequently seen in animals affected by the peracute and acute forms of heartwater and can easily be confused with similar signs caused by infectious conditions, toxic plants, acaricide and heavy metal poisonings.     

Comparison of BSE prevalence estimates from EU countries for the period July to December 2001 to the OIE and EU GBR classifications

Consequent upon the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis, the European Union (EU) Commission enacted various decisions, which demanded that all bovine animals over 30 months of age should be examined by one of the approved rapid tests when slaughtered for human consumption. All cattle over 24 months of age subject to 'special emergency slaughtering' or died on the farm or in transit or suspect of BSE infection should also be examined by one of the approved rapid tests. According to a specific commission decision, Sweden and Finland were to test only a sample of bovine animals over 30 months of age subject to normal slaughter. Testing commenced on 1 January 2001. The authors evaluate the results of more than 5 million tests performed in the second semester 2001 from across the EU. The prevalence of BSE in the risk categories considered (emergency slaughter, fallen stock and healthy slaughtered), and the probability distribution of true-positive, false-positive and false-negative results are estimated by second-order Bayesian analysis. The results of the validation of tests performed in the EU are also considered by estimation of the probability distribution of their sensitivity and specificity. The prevalence of infection estimated in the cattle population of each EU country is compared against the criteria given in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code and is also used to evaluate the consistency of the results of EU Geographical BSE Risk with the actual infection levels in the countries. Finally, the capability of the two current approaches to BSE surveillance (i.e. the testing of all slaughtered and dead cattle as applied in the EU and a surveillance system targeted at animals in risk categories only) to detect the infection in a given population are discussed.     

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: epidemiological features 1985 to 1990.

Following the identification of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the British cattle population in 1986 epidemiological studies were launched. This paper provides an updated account of the epidemiological features of BSE from 1985, when the first cases, based on clinical histories, occurred, until 1990. The number of cases up to December 1989 represents an annual incidence of 3.9 confirmed cases per 1000 adult animals in Great Britain. Many more dairy herds were affected than beef suckler herds, a difference attributable to the difference in feeding practices between the two herd types. The geographical variation in incidence previously described has persisted with the highest incidence in the south and east of England. Other features of the epidemiology, including the low within-herd incidence, remained unaltered from the earlier findings. The results support the previously suggested hypothesis that the outbreak of BSE was due to the sudden exposure of the cattle population to a scrapie-like agent in 1981/82. There was no evidence of direct transmission between cattle during the period considered.     

The clinical diagnosis of BSE

Diagnosis of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is confirmed by specified laboratory methods on brain material. On the other hand clinical signs of manifest BSE are quite obvious. The first part of this paper describes case histories, clinical signs, laboratory findings and the most common differential diagnoses. On the basis of the data of actual prevalence in Germany, the role of clinical examination in eradication of BSE is dealt in the second part. Clinical diagnosis is a very sensitive and specific method when there is a high prevalence. According to the data from December 2000 to November 2001 prevalence in Germany was beyond 1 BSE case per 100,000 cattle or 3 cases per 100,000 cows. This very low prevalence decreases rapidly sensitivity and specificity of the diagnosis made by clinical examination. Therefore the main focus of field-diagnostics has to be laid on specified laboratory diagnostic methods. On the other hand prevalence of BSE-positive cattle is distinctly higher in the group of animals slaughtered in cases of illness or emergency than in cattle slaughtered on the regulatory bases. Nevertheless every veterinary practitioner should be aware of the clinical picture of BSE, clinical examination-routine and differential diagnosis, because occurrence of BSE is still possible in any dairy herd. At the moment it is not possible to make any statement if eradication of BSE can be reached in future.     

A STUDY OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF ANAPLASMA MARGINALE INFECTIONS OF CATTLE IN SOUTHERN QUEENSLAND: CLINICAL DISEASE AND THE PREVALENCE OF COMPLEMENT FIXING ANTIBODIES

SUMMARY A total of 386 clinical outbreaks of anaplasmosis were confirmed in Queensland south of the 22nd parallel over the period 1967 to 1976. Seventy-eight per cent of these outbreaks occurred during autumn and winter and only 6.8% involved cattle less than 1 year of age compared with 54.8% for cattle more than 3 years old. Dairy breeds were involved in 48.1% of 258 outbreaks compared with 51.9% for beef breeds. Bos taurus beef breeds were involved in 90.7% of 118 outbreaks compared with 9.3% for Bos indicus crossbreds. Approximately 3 times as much clinical disease per head of population was confirmed in tick (Boophilus microplus) infested southern Queensland south of the 25th parallel (south zone) than in areas between the 25th and 22nd parallel (north zone). A survey was conducted during 1975 in which 3,810 cattle from 241 herds were sampled on the basis of the distribution of the cattle population. The prevalence of CF reactors in tick-infested areas was 42.1% of 3,026 samples compared with 0.4% of 784 samples from tick-free areas. The prevalence in the north zone was 52.3% compared to 30.2% for the south zone and it also varied with the type of animal sampled. The prevalence in Bos taurus cattle was significantly greater than in Bos indicus types and it increased with age of the animal. No significant difference in susceptibility to infection attributable to sex could be demonstrated. Animals exposed to heavy to medium tick infestations had significantly more CF reactors than those exposed to light infestation. Higher stocking densities were associated with higher prevalence levels. Thus anaplasmosis is predominantly a disease of autumn and winter and of cattle greater than 1 year of age. Both clinical and subclinical infection occur only in tick-infested areas and B. microplus is considered to be the main, if not the only vector. Both clinical and inapparent infection are more frequent in Bos taurus than in Bos indicus types.     

Within-herd contact structure and transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in a persistently infected dairy cattle herd

Within-herd transmission of pathogens occurs either by direct or by indirect contact between susceptible and infected animals. In dairy herds that are structured into groups, the way in which animals encounter each other and share an environment can affect pathogen transmission. Dairy cattle are heterogeneous in terms of susceptibility and infectivity with respect to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) transmission. It is mainly young animals that are susceptible and adults that are infectious. Both vertical and horizontal transmission through the ingestion of Map shed into the environment by adults and transiently infected calves can occur. Our objective was to assess the effect of contact structure on Map transmission in persistently infected dairy herds and to examine the effect of isolating calves from other calves or from adults before weaning. We developed a stochastic compartmental model of Map transmission in a closed dairy herd. The model reflects the Map infection process and herd management characteristics. Indirect transmission via the environment was modelled explicitly. Six infection states (susceptible, resistant, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, and clinically affected) and two contaminated farm area environments (whole farm and calf area) were modelled. Calves were housed in hutches, individual indoor pens, or group indoor pens. Two different levels of exposure of calves to a farm environment contaminated by adults were possible: no exposure and indirect exposure through fomites. Three herd sizes were studied. We found that contacts between calves before weaning did not influence Map transmission in a herd, whereas the level of exposure of calves to an environment contaminated by adults and the starting age of exposure of calves to adults were pivotal. Early culling of clinically affected adults led to a lower prevalence of infectious adults over time. The results were independent of herd size. Despite the many transmission routes that are known, the best control approach is to limit the exposure of calves to adult faeces through the systematic separation of adults and calves in combination with hygiene measures. Reducing contact between calves does not appear effective.     

Use of animal breeds and breeding to overcome the incidence of grass tetany: a review

British breeds of cattle are not so effective as Zebu in extracting nutrients from low-quality roughages, and these breeds differ in their nutrient metabolism and animal physiology. Breeds of cattle may differ in their requirements for Mg. Brahman cows are less susceptible to death from disease and metabolic disorders than are British breeds of cattle, whereas cows with 50% or greater dairy breeding (Holstein and Jersey) are more susceptible than British or Brahman breeds when maintained in beef production herds. Brahman or Brahman crossbred cows are less susceptible than other breeds to metabolic disorders such as grass tetany. Magnesium absorption has been shown to be greater in Brahman than in Jersey, Holstein and Hereford cows. These differences in the efficiency of Mg absorption between different breeds of cows may be due to genetic variation in the absorptive mechanisms of Mg, in feeding behavior, in gastrointestinal tract motility, in gastrointestinal tract fill or to some combination.     

Prevalence and risk factors associated with Cryptosporidium spp. infection in young domestic livestock in India

A total of 938 faecal samples (461 cattle calves, 264 buffalo calves, 55 lambs, 116 kids and 42 piglets) from different livestock farms and individual small holdings in six targeted states of India were collected and screened by modified Ziehl–Neelsen staining technique to determine the prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. and its association with age, sex, season and faecal consistency in domesticated animals. Overall, 16.2 % of the animals were positive for Cryptosporidium infection with prevalence of 16.3, 24.2, 1.8, 3.5 and 19.1 % in cattle calves, buffalo calves, lambs, kids and piglets, respectively. The prevalence of infection was significantly higher (p?<?0.05) in bovines (19.3 % cattle and 33.7 % buffalo) below 1 month of age than in animals between 1 and 3 months of age. But in piglets, it was higher in the age group of 1 to 3 months (22.6 %) than in younger animals (9.1 %). Also, higher prevalence (p?>?0.05) was recorded in females than in males. Seasons had a significant effect (p?<?0.05) on the prevalence of infection in large ruminants, with the highest prevalence in monsoon (cattle 28.8 % and buffalo 36.6 %) followed by pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season. However, in case of sheep and goats, the prevalence was higher (p?>?0.05) in post-monsoon than in monsoon season. A high degree of association was noticed between Cryptosporidium infection and diarrhoea in ruminants screened during the present study. But, in case of pigs, the prevalence was higher in non-diarrhoeic than in diarrhoeic animals. Genotyping of Cryptosporidium spp. based on nested PCR amplification of partial 18S rRNA and its subsequent digestion with SspI, VspI and MboII restriction enzymes revealed prevalence of Cryptosporidium parvum in representative number of positive samples of cattle, buffalo and goats.     

Properties of L-type bovine spongiform encephalopathy in intraspecies passages

The origin and transmission routes of atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) remain unclear. To assess whether the biological and biochemical characteristics of atypical L-type BSE detected in Japanese cattle (BSE/JP24) are conserved during serial passages within a single host, 3 calves were inoculated intracerebrally with a brain homogenate prepared from first-passaged BSE/JP24-affected cattle. Detailed immunohistochemical and neuropathologic analysis of the brains of second-passaged animals, which had developed the disease and survived for an average of 16 months after inoculation, revealed distribution of spongiform changes and disease-associated prion protein (PrP(Sc)) throughout the brain. Although immunolabeled PrP(Sc) obtained from brain tissue was characterized by the presence of PrP plaques and diffuse synaptic granular accumulations, no stellate-type deposits were detected. Western blot analysis suggested no obvious differences in PrP(Sc) molecular mass or glycoform pattern in the brains of first- and second-passaged cattle. These findings suggest failures to identify differences in mean incubation period and biochemical and neuropathologic properties of the BSE/JP24 prion between the first and second passages in cattle.     

TSE eradication in small ruminants--quo vadis?

The term of 'TSE infections in small ruminants' summarises BSE as well as classical and the recently discovered atypical scrapie infections in sheep and goats.There are fundamental differences between the TSE infections in small and large ruminants. Other than in bovines the TSE pathogenesis in small ruminants implies that various peripheral tissues become infectious long before the onset of clinical symptoms. At least in sheep, classical scrapie is efficiently transmitted horizontally within affected flocks. On the other hand, BSE poses a distinctly higher zoonotic risk than scrapie. Therefore, regulatory measures for the protection of animals and humans from a BSE infection must be substantially different for large and small ruminants. While culling of the birth and feeding cohort of a BSE affected cattle is considered to be effective to prevent any further BSE cases in the affected herd, an effective BSE and classical scrapie eradication programme in small ruminants requires a much more stringent eradication strategy and the rendering of all susceptible animals. The situation became even more complicated when atypical scrapie cases with divergent transmission and pathogenesis characteristics and with a novel biochemical phenotype of the infectious agent came into play. The discovery of these atypical scrapie cases has initiated a discussion about the suitability of the current TSE eradication measures in sheep (which are selective breeding and genotype based culling), in particular when such cases were also found in sheep carrying the believed scrapie resistant genotypes.     

Antibodies to bovine leukemia virus in a leukosis dairy herd and suggestions for control of the infection.

A closed herd of 765 Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle with a history of multiple cases of leukosis was tested for antibodies to bovine leukemia virus by the bovine leukemia-glycoprotein immunodiffusion test. A total of 355 animals (46.4%) were antibody positive. Prevalence was 60% in the 373 milking cows and 100% in the breeding bulls. Antibodies were present in 59% of newborn calves. Prevalence of antibodies was higher in older animals and cows in second lactation had a higher prevalence than cows in first lactation (72% vs 43%). Proposed control measures in this herd aim at preventing infection of calves, heifers and lactating cows by: 1) separating them into groups negative and positive for bovine leukemia virus antibodies, 2) not allowing calves to receive colstrum or milk from infected cows and 3) by using seronegative bulls for natural breeding tested at three month intervals. Calves should be tested after six months of age. Before this time calves of positive mothers should be treated as being positive.     

The unrecognised French BSE epidemic

In France, implementation of systematic screening programs in 2000, as a complement to the mandatory reporting of animals with clinical signs of BSE (passive surveillance), revealed certain limitations of the mandatory system. Indeed, systematic screening showed that some BSE cases were not detected by the clinical surveillance system, implying considerable BSE case under-reporting throughout the epidemic. As the most likely explanation for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) is exposure to the aetiologic agent of BSE, it is essential to reconstruct the French BSE epidemic pattern accounting for this under-reporting. We estimated age- and year-specific incidence rates of BSE by using a back-calculation method. This approach relies on the principle that the number of clinical BSE cases is the consequence of the number of BSE-infected animals after a known incubation time, defined as the time between infection and clinical onset. We generalized this model to take into account epidemiological characteristics of BSE, such as French cattle mortality, BSE case reporting probability, and age-dependent susceptibility and/or exposure to the BSE agent. We confirmed that the average BSE incubation period is five years and that the peak risk of bovine infection occurs between 6 and 12 months of age. The results also showed that the proportion of underreporting is the most influential parameter in the model, and that BSE was substantially underreported until rapid tests were introduced. Indeed, only 103 BSE cases were detected by passive surveillance up to June 2000, while we estimated that there was 301 200 (95% confidence interval (CI) [27 600-837 600]) cattle infected by the BSE agent. Despite uncertainty over the beginning of the epidemic, we showed that the French BSE epidemic in the late 1980s was completely undetected, and only the second wave, after 1990, was observed.