Valuing Project With Strategic Options with the Real Options Approch

The traditional method used often is net present value method(NPV)for valuing project. NPV is useful in many cases, but it doesn't get to the heart of how intimately linked capital allocation is to long term corporate strategy. In general,past investment projects generate future as well as current opportunities-an important consideration that NPV rarely takes into account. This paper presents an advanced valuation techniques-the real options approach that remedies some of the deficiencies inherent in traditional NPV. The main emphasis will be on techniques that emphasize the role that the adoption of projects plays in the overall long term strategy of a corporation. Because in reality the future markets have the great uncertainty that produces risky or opportunity with project so as to change the value of project. This will have an effect on decision making. The real options approach recognize that financial market information can be useful for determining the expected cash flows of a project as well as the appropriate discount rate and can thus provide more accurate estimates of value. Base on this, how to use the real options approach is introduced. The role that the real options approach played in valuing the project with abandonment or defer or extend etc. strategic options is described with examples.     

A New Dynamic Method for Calculating NPV

NPV have been widely applied. A majority of the existing calculating methods of cash flow are the static method or the expectation method. It is more reasonable to regard future cash flow as random variable which has certain probability distribution, which shifts with time. But the research about it has been introduced rarely. Through introducing some kinds of existing methods and considering the feature of Markov method, a dynamic method which is used in solved the distributing of indeterminate feature cash flow is showed. So a new kind of dynamic calculation method about NPV is obtained. The method is applied in the calculation to future cash flow of the certain highway investment project of China. The result shows that this method is feasible, effective.     

丹皮(垫江)生产的经济分析

摘要 目的：指导丹皮产业化生产。方法：以2008年重庆市垫江县社会经济发展状况、丹皮市场行情为基础,采用农业项目投资评估的方法,开展丹皮生产（20 hm2,r=10%）的经济分析。结果：估算投入93.5 万元,投资利润率8.4%、NPV 5.29 万元、IRR 13.3%,产量及就地销售价格的盈亏平衡点（动态）分别为4 830 kg?hm-2、11.2 元/kg,销售价格对NPV的影响最敏感。结论：具有一定经济、社会效益,但存在市场风险。     

白术生产的财务分析

摘 要：【研究目的】指导白术产业化生产。【方法】以2008年重庆市酉阳县社会经济发展状况、白术市场行情为基础,采用农业项目投资评估的方法,开展白术生产（20hm2,r=10%）的财务分析。【结果】估算投入57.18万元,投资利润率2.5%、NPV 0.6万元、IRR13.9%、产量及就地销售价格的盈亏平衡点（动态）分别为2 960 kg/hm2、9.9元/kg、销售价格对NPV的影响最敏感。【结论】白术生产具有一定社会、经济效益,存在一定市场风险。     

A Model of Venture Capital Project''s NPV Formula with Introducing Debt Capital

Improves investment decision method NPV method by introducing risk. This paper CAPM and certainty equivalent wealthare applied because of NCF'S volatility of venture capital projects, on the basis of which, debt capital is introduced. the dissertation derives a levered risky project's NPV formula, which broadens applying range and lessens constrain conditions. For risky projects investment decision, the research provides a new theoretical basis.     

Application of Risk Analysis to the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

Every sort of financial indexes of the construction project is a value occurred in future. It has a random character, so the estimation of these indexes in early stage is surely a matter of risk. In practice, the investors often choose a construction project only by simple estimation rather by deep financial evaluation and risk analysis. In this paper, taking the project NPV as an example and applying risk analysis to its estimation, the authors develop a totally new economic evaluation method for construction projects.     

Hierarchy-degree of Gray Relationship Ddecision of Land Investment Based on Cloud Model

The competition in the land market is drasticly increasing, which demands much higher scientificity and accuracy in the decision. The land investment decision system is a non-linear gray system and the traditional appraisal methods have some limit in appraising it. It uses cloud model and the uncertain illation based on the cloud model, translates the qualitative appraisal of the factors level into quantitative scores, achieves the transition between a linguistic term of a qualitative concept and its numerical representation ; and further merges the degree of gray relationship theory to appraise the comprehensive level of the objects. So the new decision mode is set up. Through an example analysis and contrast study, the validity of the method is validated. The application of cloud theory in the decision field will affirmatively improve the decision level.     

Collaborative Levels and Effecting Factors Analysis for Web-based Product Development

The collaborative levels in modem web - based product development processes are diversed in a large degree. However, current researches are lack of systematic approaches to analyze the appropriate level of the collaboration. Aiming at the problem, the collaborative levels and effecting factors are studied in the paper. First, a primary framework of the effecting factors analysis is proposed, which defines the input, output, and components of the effeeting factors analysis. Next, a collaboration hierarchy model is set up, which is constituted by message level, data level and application level. Based on the model, the effecting factors of collaboration levels are analyzed systematically from technology, organization and business aspects. Detailed indices are abstracted from these aspects and an evaluation factors set is formed systematiclly. According to the framework, hierarchy model, and the factors set, a methodology for factors evaluation and analysis is developed, which contains analytical hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and gap analysis method. The methodology has characteristics of quantitive analysis, easy to oprerate, and optimization support capability. A case study is provided to illustrate the analysis process based on the application of the methodology in a collaborative product development project of a furniture enterprise. The case study shows that the methodology can help enterprises to determine the collaboration level effectively, and can also find out the critical factors which impact the collaboration on a large extend. As a result, the develop process, working efficiency and the outcome of the collaborative project can be highly improved.     

A Simulative Method of Investment Decision in Real Estate Development

This paper has simulated major risk factors and estimation indexes which influence on project investment in real estate development. It confirms the scope of risk factors by reaching it's reliability, The problems are resolved in obtaining values of factors and it's probabilistic distributing;the limitation is over come in estimating the income of investment by a point-estimation.An impersonal and reliable method of investment decision is provided in real estate development, and the result is ideal in practive test.     

Application of Simulation Method on the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

In order to provide a reliable foundation for project decision, some sorts of financial indexes of the project, such as NPV, IRR etc, should be accurately estimated out in the earlier stage. However, these indexes appear in the future randomly, and their estimation in the earlier stage is at risk. In this paper, taking the project's NPV as example and applying simulation method to its estimation, the authors developed a comparatively objective evaluation method of construction projects. Furthermore, the outcome of the simulation method is tested by comparing it with the result of another evaluation method.     

Discussion of the Application and Foreground of Falling Water Aeration with the Process of Sewage Treatment

The engineering design of sewage treatment plant for the Chongqing city, P. R. China is analyzed in this paper. Considering the situation of China and other projects, the characteristics of falling water reactor for the environment protection project and economy of investment is introduced ; the application and foreground of falling water aeration in the process of sewage treatment is discussed, such as Oxidation - ditch, SBR, and so on. The conclusion indicated that the falling water aeration can be designed and used as an independent aeration, and, it is an upgraded technology of sewage treatment which is adaptive for city water environment control in middle and small towns in China. The falling water aeration may reduce running cost of the sewage treatment plant, is adaptive for foothill and the mountainous areas, and reduces project investment and environments damage.     

Risk Decision-making Method of Slope Resistant Engineering

Considering the character of slope resistant engineering invest benefit, in line with security and economy balmaced, combining initial investment and anticipated hazard loss, disaster resistant engineering should be satisfied with the criterion of minimum cost. Decision tree model is adopted as analyzing means, and risk decision-making of slope design is carried out. Project input-output radio adopting dynamic analysis can reflect project investment benefit more accurately. At last this paper analyzes some questions in process of slope resistant engineering with benefits enumerate.     

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Human Thermal Comfort

The human thermal comfort is influenced by many factors, and it is fuzzy, so it is a kind of stochastic fuzzy variable. So the evaluation of human thermal comfort is fuzzy also. and the method assessing the human thermal comfort with fuzzy mathematics is reliable. The factor affecting the human thermal comfort is analysed and predigested. Based on the analysis above,the methodology of assessing the thermal comfort is presented. The methodology resolves the decision_making continuum, so it lightens uncertainty of traditional method. The simulation results are compared with the Predicted Mean Vote index, and they are in good agreement. The study shows that the methodology of assessing the thermal comfort is reliable,and it presents a new approach for studying the human thermal.     

黄土高原水土保持的社会经济效应评价研究

采用灰色关联分析法对黄土高原10条小流域开展水土保持后的社会经济效应做了定量评价,结果表明：水土保持对农村社会经济发展产生了极大的推动作用,农民人均收入水平是反映水土保持的社会经济影响好坏的首要因子,此外,人均粮食占有水平、土地利用率、人均水土保持投资、农业总收入以及基本农田面积也是反映社会经济效应的重要因素。只有当这些单项指标效益均较好时,整体的社会经济效应才会处于良好状态,水土保持要采用系统工程原理,才能保证生态环境与社会经济良性发展。     

Orientation of Aim Client in Real Estate Development Based on EXCEL

In order to subdivide the market during the process of project planning and orient the group of client, then determine the sale price; on the condition that the traditional orientation procedure cant grasp the payment capability of the aim client, the anthors can adapt the powerful finance analysis ability of EXEL to design the procedure of determining the purchasing power and payments ability of the aim client, and shape a set of orientation system based on quantitative analysis method. The result is, the character of the aim client can be grasp accurately depend on this orientation system, and providing a scientific gist for the accurate orientation of price and lowing the risk of investment etc.     

中国黄河中上游造林项目区域可持续发展效益评价－内蒙古中西部地区为例

摘 要：本文在分析生态、经济、社会可持续发展基础上,建立了一套指标体系与赋值标准在内的区域可持续发展评价方法,该方法中评价内容包括工程实施及政策执行情况、生态、经济、社会效益四项内容。采用该体系对内蒙古自治区乌审旗、伊金霍洛旗、五原县和清水河县在日元贷款造林后的变化进行定量分析。结果表明：工程实施及政策执行情况权重占20%、生态指标权重占20%,经济是决定社会发展,其权重占30%,社会权重占30%,进行区域可持续发展评价,通过四个旗县可持续发展评价指标体系的对比知伊金霍洛旗无论在经济、生态,还是社会效益方面数值有了很大的提高,伊金霍洛旗总分为80.12。其它三个旗县也取得了显著生态效益、经济效益、社会效益,乌审旗、五原县、清水河县总分分别为77.71、80.12、74、79.98。研究结果证明,此方法是可行的。     

Real Option Method in Real Estate Investment Decision

Through analysis of basic assumptions and limitations of the conventional real estate investment decision method, in this paper, its unconformity to the investment environment, which includes a great number of uncertain elements, is pointed out. By analyzing the real option and the price formula, the pattern of real option in real estate investment decision is put forward and this breaks through the limitations of the conventional investment decision method and makes the decision scientifically and reasonably, moreover, it has some directive significance to investment administration work of real estate corporation.     

滇东南喀斯特石漠化地区粮食增产的主导因素分析——以西畴县为例

根据西畴县近17年（1990 ~ 2006年）的耕地资源和社会经济统计数据,运用多元统计分析中的主成分分析方法来分析西畴石漠化地区影响粮食增产的主导因素。结果表明,耕地质量对粮食增产的贡献率是69.85%,经济投入水平对粮食增产的贡献率是20.29%,说明耕地质量因素是西畴石漠化地区粮食增产的主导因素,而耕地质量的提高则主要得益于西畴土地整理模式的实施。在西畴石漠化地区后备耕地资源极为缺乏,以及因为经济建设发展需要耕地减少难以避免的情况下,只有坚定不移地推进土地整理,切实加强土壤改良和农田基础设施建设,从根本上改良耕地和提高耕地质量,才能提高耕地产出水平,进而提高粮食产量。     

山楂粉蝶核型多角体病毒研究

1984、1985年的试验结果,明确了温度、紫外光、日光及缓冲液pH值等几种物理因素对山楂粉蝶核型多角体病毒Acr NPV感染力的影响.Acr NPV分别在40℃冰箱中保存14个月、28个月和在果园树干上保留14个月的Acr NPV虫尸,对幼虫的感染力无明显变化.Acr NPV存32℃恒温处理后,其感染力随时间延长而逐渐下降.紫外光对Acr NPV杀伤力较大,当紫外光照射240分钟后,Acr NPV完全丧失了对幼虫的感染力.果园试验表明Acr NPV悬液喷在果树叶正面和背面时,对幼虫的感染力有差异.Acr NPV对幼虫的感染力和磷酸缓冲液的PH值有关,当pH值为3.5或10.5时,感病幼虫发病慢,当pH值为7.2时,幼虫发病快.     

Settlement Analysis on Building near Retaining Pile of Deep Foundation Pit

The building settlement near a foundation pit project in Yanzhou is calculated by using calculation method related to settlement of the soil near a foundation pit, Comparing and analyzing calculated settlement values with measured settlement ,the reason for the gap between theoretically calculated values and measured settlement values is pointed out, On the foundation of careful research and analysis of the measured building settlement values ,the factors influencing the settlement of building near the foundation pit are summarized. Finally, according to practical measured values and influ- encing factors, how the settlement of building near the foundation pit is influenced was carefully analyzed. A conclusion that has practical role in Engineering is presented,which can serve reasonably for instructing foundation pit retaining design.