Phosphorus loss from agricultural catchments: pathways and implications for management

Abstract. The contribution non-point P sources make to the total P loading on water bodies in agricultural catchments has not been fully appreciated. Using data derived from plot scale experimental studies, and modelling approaches developed to simulate system behaviour under differing management scenarios, a fuller understanding of the processes controlling P export and transformations along non-point transport pathways can be achieved. One modelling approach which has been successfully applied to large UK catchments (50-350km² in area) is applied here to a small, 1.5 km² experimental catchment. The importance of scaling is discussed in the context of how such approaches can extrapolate the results from plot-scale experimental studies to full catchment scale. However, the scope of such models is limited, since they do not at present directly simulate the processes controlling P transport and transformation dynamics. As such, they can only simulate total P export on an annual basis, and are not capable of prediction over shorter time scales. The need for development of process-based models to help answer these questions, and for more comprehensive UK experimental studies is highlighted as a pre-requisite for the development of suitable and sustainable management strategies to reduce non-point P loading on water bodies in agricultural catchments.     

Combining data from state and national monitoring surveys to assess large-scale impacts of agricultural policy

An increasing number of state and national databases are available to assess agricultural and environmental trends in natural resource populations. We use a case study approach to consider methodologies for combining state and national data to assess the impact of agricultural policy on state wildlife populations. The scientific question is to assess the impact of the Conservation Reserve Program on pheasant populations in Iowa, using land cover/use data from the National Resources Inventory and count data from an annual state pheasant population survey. Our approach involves identifying a common spatial polygon for linking summaries from each of two datasets, and then estimating parameters that describe temporal trends in land cover and in pheasant populations over a common time period within each polygon. Estimated pheasant population parameters are regressed on land cover summaries to investigate the impact of the Conservation Reserve Program on pheasant populations in regions of the state. Results reveal that the population response to the Conservation Reserve Program varies by region in relation to the physiography and agricultural use of the region, in ways that were not anticipated by policy developers. Statistical considerations for developing appropriate models for combining data are discussed.     

Using Cs measurements to validate the application of the AGNPS and ANSWERS erosion and sediment yield models in two small Devon catchments

Distributed erosion and sediment yield models are being increasingly used for predicting soil erosion and sediment yields in agricultural catchments. In most applications, validation of such models has commonly been restricted to comparison of the predicted and measured sediment output from a catchment, because spatially distributed information on rates and patterns of soil redistribution within the catchment has been lacking. However, such spatially distributed data are needed for rigorous model testing, in order to validate the internal functioning of a model and its applicability at different spatial scales. The study reported in this paper uses two approaches to test the performance of the agricultural non-point source pollution (AGNPS) and areal non-point source watershed environmental response simulation (ANSWERS) erosion and sediment yield models in two small catchments in Devon, UK. These involve, firstly, comparison of observed and predicted runoff and sediment output data for individual storm events monitored at the basin outlets and, secondly, information on the spatial pattern of soil redistribution within the catchments derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements. The results obtained indicate that catchment outputs simulated by both models are reasonably consistent with the recorded values, although the AGNPS model appears to provide closer agreement between observed and predicted values. However, the spatial patterns of soil redistribution and the sediment delivery ratios predicted for the two catchments by the AGNPS and ANSWERS models differ significantly. Comparison of the catchment sediment delivery ratios and the pattern of soil redistribution in individual fields predicted by the models with equivalent information derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements indicates that the AGNPS model provides more meaningful predictions of erosion and sediment yield under UK conditions than the ANSWERS model and emphasises the importance of using information on both catchment output and sediment redistribution within the catchment for model validation.     

Agricultural nitrogen balance and water quality in the UK

Abstract. Nutrient balance calculations have been advocated as indicators of the risk of nitrate loss from agricultural land. To explore this concept, a spatially distributed UK agricultural nitrogen balance was derived using annually updated statistics. The mean UK N surplus for 1995 was 115 kg N ha^–1, made up of 51 kg ha^–1for arable land, 140 kg ha^–1 for agricultural grassland (excluding rough grazing) and an additional 14 kg N ha^–1for agricultural land from pig and poultry units. Nitrogen surpluses were greater in lowland grassland (mainly in western, wetter areas) than in arable areas. However nitrate concentrations in rivers were generally greater in arable areas. The relationship between N balance and nitrate leaching was very different for grassland and arable systems, and was also sensitive to climate, level of inputs and management practices. Nitrogen surplus was therefore weakly or even negatively correlated with river nitrate concentrations or loads. A positive correlation was found only where the comparison was restricted to grassland-dominated catchments. Nitrogen surplus calculations identified areas of very high livestock densities, which would be associated with increased risk of pollution. However their use in isolation as indicators of N leaching, or of progress towards mitigation, could be misleading especially if comparing areas differing in land use, climate or soil type.     

Uncertainty in simulated nitrate leaching due to uncertainty in input data. A case study

Abstract. Deterministic leaching models are used to estimate regional losses of nitrate from agricultural land to the environment. The estimated leaching losses are associated with uncertainty arising from uncertainty in the input data used. In the present case study we have assessed this uncertainty by use of Monte Carlo analysis, using the Latin hypercube sampling technique. Input data have preferably been adopted from publicly available data. Data which could not be retrieved from the databases was assessed by guided estimates or based on local data. The estimated annual leaching loss from the study region was around 106 kg N ha⁻¹, which is in agreement with previous findings. The uncertainty in the leaching expressed in terms of coefficients of variation (CV) depended on the agricultural practices. CV's for arable farm rotations, cattle farm rotations, and pig farm rotations were around 20, 30 and 40%, respectively. Breakdown of the total uncertainty into contributions of different error sources did not isolate one single all important source.     

Soil phosphorus management and water quality: a UK perspective

Abstract. An increasing proportion of P reaching surface waters appears to be derived from agricultural land; apportioning the relative contribution to particular farming systems is not straightforward. The majority of farms in the UK operate on the basis of an annual agricultural P surplus, the size of which varies across different farm types. Particularly high values (>20kg ha^-1) are commonly associated with intensive-livestock production and the lower values (<10kg P ha^-1) with arable farms. The geographical divide between the predominance of arable cropping in the east and livestock enterprises in the west of the UK should result in an uneven pattern to the distribution of annual P surplus. The expected cumulative effects of this surplus should be a noticeable increase in total and extractable soil P concentrations, but this is not readily apparent. While evidence from experimental plots suggests a relationship between the concentration of available soil P and that present in drainage waters, extrapolating this information so that it can be useful at the scale of a whole catchment is difficult. The loss of P from agricultural land is controlled by factors which are independent of the size of the annual P surplus. The pattern of P cycling, together with the dominant loss pathways, differ greatly between livestock and arable farming systems. Proportioning the contributions that either increased soil erosion arising from changing agricultural practices or the cumulative effect of a P surplus have had upon P loss is a necessary prerequisite to effective management.     

Climate change and soil erosion on agricultural land in england and wales

To assess the effects of climate change on soil erosion we need to model changes in rate, frequency and extent of erosion. Present day rates of soil erosion for agricultural land in England and Wales are known from a national monitoring scheme and also from a local one. The latter, for the South Downs, covers a seven-year period and includes climatic data. This shows a strong correlation between total erosion and a Rainfall Index. The availability of these databases allows us to use existing models such as EPIC and an Expert System to predict erosion rates for postulated warmer and wetter (winter) conditions. EPIC is particularly suitable for specific sites where detailed data exists and crop yield implications can also be modelled. A rule-based Expert System approach allows us to examine erosion rates at a different scale across the landscape. We postulate that water erosion rates on arable land in the lowlands will increase markedly in severity, frequency and extent especially if land use changes. In the uplands predicted climatic warming suggests a longer growing season and fewer frosts: these may lead to a decrease in erosion of overgrazed eroding slopes. Increases in erosion rates are not inevitable if policy decisions are taken and implemented in good time.     

用GIS和作物模型对作物生产进行区域模拟方法

简要地介绍了区域模拟及对模拟结果进行检验的方法。基于空间地理信息的模拟既能反映大范围地区内气候、土壤等地理信息的空间变量对作物产量的影响 ,也能反映不同地区社会经济情况、农业耕作方式等对作物生产的影响。在GIS技术支持下 ,对基于站点的作物生长模拟模型进行改造 ,从而对大区域范围进行以特点网格 (如 5 0km× 5 0km)为单元的模拟     

The spatial variability of soil nitrates in arable and pasture landscapes: implications for the development of geographical information system models of nitrate leaching

Abstract. In response to the European Community Nitrate Directive (91/676) a catchment scale Geographical Information System (GIS) model of nitrate leaching has been developed to map nitrate vulnerability and predict average weekly fluxes of nitrate from agricultural land units to surface water. This paper presents a pilot study which investigated the spatial variability of soil nitrates in order to: (1) define an appropriate pixel size for modelling N leaching; (2) quantify the within-unit variability of soil nitrate concentrations for pasture and arable fields; and (3) assist in the design of an efficient sampling strategy for estimating mean nitrate concentrations. Soil samples, taken from two 800 m transects in early September 1994, were analysed for water soluble nitrate. The arable soils had a mean nitrate-nitrogen concentration of 0.693 μg/g (S.E. 0.054 μg/g) and the pasture soils had a higher mean nitrate-nitrogen concentration of 0.86 μg/g (S.E. 0.085 μg/g). Spatial variability was investigated using variograms. The pasture data had a weak spatial relationship, whereas the arable data exhibited a strong spatial relationship which fitted a spherical variogram model (r² 0.87), with a range of 40 m. A pixel size of 40 m is suggested for nitrate modelling within the GIS based on the arable variogram and an improved sampling strategy for model validation is suggested, involving bulking sub-samples over a 40 m grid for estimating mean nitrate concentrations in combined land use and soil units.     

复合井修复地下水硝酸盐污染的效果

为探寻更适用于农田周边硝酸盐污染地下水的原位生物修复技术,该研究构建了A、B、C3套试验装置,分别刻画管井(A)、大口井与管井组成的复合井(B、C)。基于3套物理试验模型,定量对比分析了管井与复合井修复地下水硝酸盐污染的效果。结果表明:受水力停留时间的影响,相同流速条件下,A、B、C三套修复系统的硝酸盐负荷分别介于75～100、100～125、125～150 mg/L之间;在允许硝酸盐负荷范围内,去除率均可达到95%以上,且不会出现亚硝酸盐累积及氨氮超标现象,表明了复合井修复系统的可行性,可以实现地下水开采与修复同步进行,提高了地下水水源地供水安全保证率。     

Agricultural injuries among operation household members: RRIS-II 1999

The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude and consequences of agricultural injuries, and to reveal potential risk factors among agricultural household members. The Regional Rural Injury Study (RRIS-II) collected injury and exposure data on agricultural households of 16,538 people in Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska for each six-month period of 1999. Adjusted injury rates, consequences, and potential risk factors were identified through analyses. Selection of variables for multivariate analyses was based on a causal model. Injuries reported here occurred while the individuals were involved in activities associated with their own farm or ranch, unless otherwise stated. Estimates of injury rates and the effects of various exposures were derived by Poisson and logistic regression. These models accounted for correlation within both subject and household, and were adjusted for non-response. The rate of agricultural injury to household members on their own operation was 74.5 injuries per 1,000 persons per year. Differences in rates due to age and gender diminished when rates were calculated according to hours worked. Although only 5% of injured persons required in-patient hospitalization, 28% required emergency department treatment, and 84% required some type of professional health care. Moreover, 47% of all injuries required time off from agricultural work, and 7% required time off from non-agricultural work. In multivariate analyses, decreased risks were associated with Minnesota, and increased risks were identified for those with prior injuries and for males.This study provides a basis for further research on agricultural injuries and their prevention.     

A soil carbon and land use database for the United Kingdom

Abstract. The compilation of a database of soil carbon and land use is described, from which models of soil carbon dioxide emissions across the United Kingdom (UK) can be run. The database gives soil organic carbon, sand, silt and clay contents and bulk densities weighted to reference layers from 0 to 30 cm and from 30 to 100 cm depths. The data are interpolated from information on soil types and land use on a 1 km grid across the UK and are used to estimate soil carbon stocks. For 1990, the baseline year for the Kyoto Protocol on carbon emissions, the estimate is 4562 Tg soil organic carbon in the top 1 m of soil across the UK, with an average density of 18 kg m⁻². The data can be reported by layer (e.g. 54% in topsoils) and country (e.g. 48% in Scotland) as well as by soil and land type.     

Quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks: examining the spatial variation in two upland areas in the UK and a comparison to mapped estimates of soil carbon

Intensive field surveys were undertaken in two upland catchments in the UK, Plynlimon in mid-Wales and Glensaugh in North East Scotland. The survey was to examine the spatial variation across the area and to assess the accuracy of the database underpinning the soil carbon map for the UK. In each area three 1-km² squares were sampled on a 200-m grid, with samples taken from both the organic and mineral horizons. Carbon stock was estimated, from the sample data, for each 1-km² square and compared with values from the UK database for that square. The results showed large differences between some squares, particularly for Plynlimon. In this area, the overall discrepancy between field and database values was 45%, compared with 8% for Glensaugh. Various sources of uncertainty were examined, including bulk density, organic horizon depth, and the proportion of different soil types within a square. The value for bulk density, assumed to determine carbon stock, had a significant effect on the estimates. In both catchments the organic layer showed a gradual decrease in bulk density with depth, resulting in a large proportion of the carbon being stored in the top part of the profile. The soil types, mapped during the survey, also showed large differences from those previously identified for each 1-km² square. This would have a considerable effect on the estimates of carbon stock within the UK database. It highlights that caution needs to be used when interpreting the UK soil map at this spatial scale.     

基于遥感蒸散发的河套灌区旱排作用分析

干旱区灌区大量引水灌溉造成灌溉地地下水位明显高于非灌溉地,进而导致地下水、盐从灌溉地向非灌溉地的迁移（内排水）及盐分在非灌溉地的积累（旱排）。为分析灌溉地与非灌溉地间的水、盐迁移,拟建立基于遥感蒸散发的灌溉地-非灌溉地水、盐平衡模型,应用于内蒙古河套灌区中西部4县（旗、区）。结果表明,研究区年均内排水量为3.55亿m3,与排水沟排水量相当;灌溉地向非灌溉地的年均迁移盐量为151.7万t,其中灌溉地年均脱盐0.4 t/hm2,非灌溉地年均积盐2.7 t/hm2。可见,内排水和旱排对于灌溉地土壤盐渍化控制具有重要作用,在灌区排水、排盐规划中应综合考虑排水工程系统与内排水、旱排的作用。     

基于农产品供应链的质量安全可追溯系统

为加强农产品质量安全管理,保证消费者身体健康,从农产品供应链的角度出发,提出基于农产品供应链的质量安全可追溯系统的设计方案。在危害分析和关键控制点(hazard analysis and critical control point,HACCP)管理体系的指导下,利用二维码技术、数据库技术、网络信息技术进行系统的构建和开发,实现了农产品在整个供应链上从种植、采收、加工到销售的全程跟踪和溯源,有效地加强了对农产品质量安全的监管,保证消费者最终知情权。目前,该系统在江苏江阴地区实际测试效果良好,验证了方案的可行性和有效性。     

应用CropSyst模型模拟东北黑土区春小麦生长

Available water and fertilizer have been the main limiting factors for yields of spring wheat, which occupies a large area of the black soil zone in northeast China; thus, the need to set up appropriate models for scenario analysis of cropping system models has been increasing. The capability of CropSyst, a cropping system simulation model, to simulate spring wheat growth of a widely grown spring cultivar, ‘Longmai 19＇, in the black soil zone in northeast China under different water and nitrogen regimes was evaluated. Field data collected from a rotation experiment of three growing seasons （1992- 1994） were used to calibrate and validate the model. The model was run for 3 years by providing initial conditions at the beginning of the rotation without reinitializing the model in later years in the rotation sequence. Crop input parameters were set based on measured data or taken from CropSyst manual. A few cultivar-specific parameters were adjusted within a reasonable range of fluctuation. The results demonstrated the robustness of CropSyst for simulating evapotranspiration, aboveground biomass, and grain yield of ＇Longmai 19＇ spring wheat with the root mean square errors being 7%, 13% and 13% of the observed means for evapotranspiration （ET）, grain yield and aboveground biomass, respectively. Although CropSyst was able to simulate spring production reasonably well, further evaluation and improvement of the model with a more detailed field database was desirable for agricultural systems in northeast China.     

Refining soil survey information for a Dutch soil series using land use history

Abstract. Differences in land-use history within soil series, although not influencing soil classification, lead to variability of non-diagnostic soil properties in soil databases. Regional studies that use soil databases are confronted with this considerable variability. This has, for example, been reported in regional studies focused on nitrate leaching from agricultural land. Such findings have a direct impact on regional assessments of nitrate leaching from dairy farms on sandy soils, a major environmental issue in the Netherlands. There is thus a need to deal with this variability in soil properties.
We were able to relate soil organic nitrogen, soil organic carbon and its dynamics to land use history for a Dutch sandy soil series. Within one soil series, three different land use histories were identified: old grassland, reseeded grassland and grassland converted from continuous cropping with silage maize. The addition of landscape characteristics significantly improved the regression models based on land-use only. Once established for any given soil series, such relationships can significantly improve soil survey input into dynamic models of soil behaviour such as regional nitrate leaching studies.     

基于植被指数的作物产量监测方法研究

在作物收获以前进行大范围的作物长势评价与作物产量估测,对粮食供需平衡、贸易、农业政策制定非常重要。该文收集了1984年到2002年的NOAA卫星和农业统计资料,计算耕地范围的植被状态指数VCI、温度状态指数TCI和植被生长状态指数VHI,分析了遥感植被指数与作物产量间的相关关系,分别建立了基于植被指数的线性回归模型和非线性回归模型。结果表明,遥感植被指数与作物产量间存在较好的相关性,其非线性回归模型在拟合精度上高于线性回归模型。研究目的是利用卫星资料得出应用于监测作物长势的植被指数,建立作物产量监测模型,应用于农作物遥感监测业务化运行系统。     

Development and use of a database of hydraulic properties of European soils

Many environmental studies on the protection of European soil and water resources make use of soil water simulation models. A major obstacle to the wider application of these models is the lack of easily accessible and representative soil hydraulic properties. In order to overcome this apparent lack of data, a project was initiated to bring together the available hydraulic data which resided within different institutions in Europe into one central database. This information was then used to derive a set of pedotransfer functions applicable to studies at a European scale. These pedotransfer functions predict the hydraulic properties from parameters collected during soil surveys and can be a good alternative for costly and time-consuming direct measurement of these properties. A total of 20 institutions from 12 European countries collaborated in establishing the database of draulic operties of uropean oils (HYPRES). This database has a flexible relational structure capable of holding a wide diversity of both soil pedological and hydraulic data. As these data were contributed by 20 different institutions it was necessary to standardise both the particle-size and the hydraulic data. A novel similarity interpolation procedure was successfully used to achieve standardization of particle-sizes according to the FAO clay, silt and sand particle-size ranges. Standardization of hydraulic data was achieved by fitting the Mualem-van Genuchten model parameters to the individual θ(h) and K(h) hydraulic properties stored in HYPRES. The HYPRES database contains information on a total of 5521 soil horizons (including replicates). Of these, 4030 horizons had sufficient data to be used in the derivation of pedotransfer functions. Information on both water retention and hydraulic conductivity was available for 1136 horizons whereas 2894 horizons had only information on water retention. Each soil horizon was allocated to one of 11 possible soil textural/pedological classes derived from the six FAO texture classes (five mineral and one organic) and the two pedological classes (topsoil and subsoil) recognised within the 1:1 000 000 scale Soil Geographical Data Base of Europe. Next, both class and continuous pedotransfer functions were developed. By using the class pedotransfer functions in combination with the 1:1 000 000 scale Soil Map of Europe, the spatial distribution of soil water availability within Europe was derived.     

Effects of the 1995–1997 drought on nitrate leaching in lowland England

Abstract. The effect of drought between summer 1995 and 1997 on stream and river nitrate concentrations was investigated using sites close to the long-running meteorological station in Oxford, UK. Nitrate concentrations in the River Windrush were relatively low during the drought, but after it had ended reached the highest level since records began in 1973. The low concentrations during the drought probably reflect a reduced contribution from agricultural runoff. High nitrate concentrations were found in a field drain at Wytham Environmental Change Network site during and after the drought, but discharge was greatly reduced. A woodland stream at Wytham had much lower nitrate concentrations than the field drain but these similarly increased during and after the drought. There was evidence that both a concentrating effect of low water volumes and enhanced soil nitrogen mineralization and nitrification rates were causing concentrations to rise. The effects of mineralization and nitrification were more important in woodland than agricultural land. Nitrate load over the course of a year was determined largely by discharge, but steeper gradients for the relationship between cumulative load and cumulative discharge were seen during and after the drought than before, reflecting the higher concentrations.