共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 484 毫秒
1.
We used size-structured Lefkovitch projection matrix analysis to predict future trends in the survival of Aquilaria crassna (Thymelaeaceae), a tropical evergreen forest tree that has been highly sought after for its valuable aromatic wood (agarwood) for millennia. Data on growth, damage to trees by poachers, fruit production, seed dispersal and seedling recruitment were collected from a 30-ha plot in Khao Yai National Park, central Thailand that had seen moderate poaching. The population asymptotic growth rate, λa, and transient growth rate, λtr, found from using the matrix to project the observed population 48 years, were 1.002 and 1.005, respectively, with 95% confidence intervals of [0.985, 1.016] and [0.985, 1.023]. The stable size distribution obtained from the matrix was reasonably similar to the observed size distribution, suggesting that at the time of the study the population was not far from equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis and simulations of poaching on adult trees indicate that both λ’s are very sensitive to the removal of adult trees and the growth of preadult trees. In particular, the increase in tree mortality and decrease in preadult growth rate caused by agarwood collection seen in some areas could cause extirpation of the population. While in such cases the population appears to be poised on the brink of decline, several factors that we could not evaluate could alter its fate. First, adult deaths could stimulate recruitment of young under the parent trees; second, there is marked year-to-year variation in fruiting success and possibly recruitment; third, there is considerable spatial variation in tree density and recruitment, suggesting that attempts to evaluate future success need to encompass larger spatial and time scales. 相似文献
2.
John M. Tirpak William M. Giuliano John W. Edwards M. Seamster 《Biological conservation》2006,133(3):364-378
Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of population growth to: (1) determine the pattern of growth in these populations, and (2) identify the demographic rates most important to growth. Trend estimates from population models were most similar to trend estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data when models incorporated either a reproductive or survival event. These events randomly increased fecundity or survival, respectively, to their empirical maxima on average once every 5 years. Reproductive events improved estimates on areas dominated by mixed mesophytic forest, while survival events characterized population growth on oak (Quercus spp.)-dominated sites. The finite rate of increase (λ) was most sensitive to brood survival followed by adult and juvenile non-breeding survival on most sites. However, brood survival was low (<0.35 female chicks/hen survived to week 5), and elasticity analyses indicated λ responded more strongly to proportionate change in non-breeding and breeding survival rates of adults and juveniles than any reproductive variable. Life stage analyses corroborated this result. At baseline values, survival of adults and juveniles may be the main determinants of growth in these populations, and reproduction may not be adequate to compensate for these losses. Therefore, population growth above baseline levels may be regularly needed to restock these populations. Researchers have hypothesized that population dynamics may differ between mixed mesopytic and oak-dominated sites due to differences in forage quality and quantity. Thus, a potential mechanism for the increases in λ needed to sustain populations on mixed mesophytic forest sites is the greater fecundity observed during years with high oak or beech (Fagus grandifolia) mast abundance. The availability of this high quality forage allows hens to enter the breeding season in better condition and realize higher fertility. Alternatively, on oak-dominated sites, population growth increases may also be a product of higher non-breeding survival of birds in mast years, when birds do not need to range as far to forage and can limit their exposure to predators. 相似文献
3.
Domitilla C. Raimondo 《Biological conservation》2003,111(3):345-358
Collection of plants and seeds from wild populations threatens a large number of cycad species. We investigated to what extent individual life history stages contribute to population growth (λ) and compared two species with major differences in life histories in the African genus Encephalartos: Encephalartos cycadifolius, a highly persistent grassland species that resprouts after fire, and Encephalartos villosus, a relatively fast growing, non-sprouting forest species. Several harvesting scenarios impacting different sized individuals were simulated to determine the sensitivity of the two functional types to harvesting. In both species λ was most sensitive to changes in abundance of adult plants. The harvesting of seeds had minimal impact on population growth rates, whereas harvesting of adult plants led to rapid population decline. This response from two very different functional types suggests that the conservation of adult plants is critical for all cycad species. Despite similar responses to adult mortality, the two species had substantially different population growth rates. This determined recovery time after harvesting of adult individuals. Encephalartos cycadifolius is typical of highly persistent plant species associated with low levels of recruitment and unable to recover from even small losses of adults within a reasonable conservation time frame (<100 years). Our results suggest that the ability to recover from loss of individuals is an important factor that should be considered when assessing the vulnerability of wild populations to threats. 相似文献
4.
Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (λ) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, λ was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in λ accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls. 相似文献
5.
Eric S. Menges Pedro F. Quintana Ascencio Orou G. Gaoue 《Biological conservation》2006,127(1):115-127
We use population viability analysis of an endangered Florida scrub mint, Dicerandra frutescens, to specify the optimal fire return intervals for its long-term persistence and for its specific habitat. We derived 83 population projection matrices from 13 years of demographic data from eight populations, 59 matrices from scrub populations and 24 from firelane or yard edges. Seed dormancy and germination transitions were inferred based on experimental data and verified by comparing modeled vs. observed population trajectories. Finite rates of increase in scrub sites were highest shortly after fire and declined steeply through 10 years postfire. The break-even value of λ = 1 was passed quickly, in about six years, suggesting that populations >6 years postfire were already facing decline. The decline is probably related to the rapid growth of competing shrubs in the habitat of D. frutescens. In long-unburned sites, finite rates of increase were nearly always <1 and declined the most in the long-unburned site with no foot trails or treefall gaps. Finite rates of increase in firelane populations also declined with years since fire or last disking. The yard edge population showed λ values both >1 and <1, with no temporal trend. Stochastic simulations in scrub sites suggested an optimal regular fire return interval of about 6-12 years. Regular fires at this interval were more favorable than stochastic fire regimes, but stochasticity reduced extinction percentages at longer fire return intervals. Stochastic fire return intervals implied a wider optimal fire return interval of 6-21 years. We suggest that prescribed fire in Florida scrub on yellow sand has occurred (and needs to occur) more frequently than previously recommended. 相似文献
6.
Robert W. Pemberton 《Biological conservation》2008,141(7):1758-1764
Cyrtopodium punctatum is a rare epiphytic orchid in southern Florida, made rare by historical over-collection. We examined the potential pollination of this orchid by the recently naturalized orchid bee (Euglossa viridissima), recorded as a pollinator of the orchid in tropical America, and found that this orchid bee is not a pollinator of the plant. We sought to learn what is responsible for relatively heavy fruit set in a Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden population of C. punctatum, and determined that the native oil-collecting bee, Centris errans, is the most important pollinator. C. punctatum flowers at Fairchild have 18 times the fruit set of flowers in Everglades National Park. The difference is probably due to the many species and individuals of oil-reward plants in the Malpighiaceae in the garden, compared to one uncommon native species in the park. Female C. errans visit these oil-reward flowers to obtain edible oils to provision their brood. Cyrtopodium flowers appear to mimic the oil-reward flowers of the Malpighiaceae to attract Centris bee pollinators, much as many Oncidium orchids do in tropical America. We recommend that Brysonima lucida, a rare native malpighiaceous shrub, and C. punctatum be planted together in Everglades National Park and other natural areas to attempt to increase C. errans pollination, to restore and enhance the long-term survival of the orchid. Planting model malpighiaceous plants to enhance Centris bee pollination may be a useful restoration tactic for other rare orchid mimics in the American tropics, including Atlantic Forest in Brazil. 相似文献
7.
Olusegun O. Osunkoya 《Biological conservation》2003,114(1):39-51
Gardenia actinocarpa (Rubiaceae)—an endemic and dioecious shrub-small tree of the lowland rainforest of Cape Tribulation, NE Australia—is evaluated for its long-term population persistence using five-year demographic data from three permanent plots of the species. Two-sex, size-specific Lefkovitch matrices were constructed to evaluate the species’ vital rates and extinction thresholds. One site indicated a sign of significant population growth (annual λ=1.056), while the remaining two gave λs close to unity (λ=1.0102 and 1.007). Overall, λ was greater than 1 (λ=1.0281) indicating that G. actinocarpa will increase in population size with time, though male plants were projected to grow faster in number than female plants. Elasticity analyses indicated that the largest size class (>22 cm diameter) made the greatest contribution to population growth (28%), especially the male plants (23%). Also λ was equally sensitive to survival/stasis (45%) and growth (44%) and least sensitive to fecundity (11%). Stochastic simulations gave 0.505 probability of quasi-extinction to 10% of its initial size in 100 years of population growth projection- suggesting that the endemic G. actinocarpa, despite a positive rate of population increase, is indeed threatened. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations showed that to maintain population persistence of G. actinocarpa, efforts should concentrate, following cost-benefit analyses, on increasing seed production coupled with enhancing establishment of individuals in the seedling, juvenile and vegetative phases. 相似文献
8.
We developed a deterministic and stochastic age-based matrix projection population model to assess and quantify the impact of mortality caused by chronic oil pollution and legal hunting on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations breeding and wintering in eastern Canada. We calculate the potential population growth rate in the absence of anthropogenic mortality sources using a modeling technique that translates absolute number of birds killed from anthropogenic mortality to potential survival rates in the absence of these anthropogenic impacts. The intrinsic growth rate of the deterministic matrix based on vital rates from Coats Island (λd=1.0102), as well as the stochastic growth rate (λs=1.0098, 95% C.I. 0.9969-1.0226), matched observed population trends. Hunting mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.020 (0.012-0.039), oiling mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.025 (0.012-0.039). Combined these sources reduced the population growth rate by 0.047 (0.033-0.610). Although thick-billed murre populations are stable or slowly growing in eastern Canada, anthropogenic sources of mortality are reducing the ability of the population to grow, and increase vulnerability in these populations to changes in their environment and other pulse perturbations. Our modeling technique could be used to assess specific anthropogenic impacts on populations where a vital rates and numbers killed are known, but no long-term trend information is available. 相似文献
9.
Raymond L. Tremblay Elvia Meléndez-Ackerman Durrell Kapan 《Biological conservation》2006,129(1):70-81
Previous in situ studies of orchid population dynamics with conservation relevance have focused on one or a few populations in a limited area. Many species of orchids occur as hyperdispersed populations in ephemeral habitats (epiphytic, twig epiphytes, short lived or vulnerable host). In this contribution, we show that orchid populations that are patchily distributed and that exist in disturbance-prone environments may act somewhat like a metapopulation with high turnover and low correlation in population dynamics. We tested for evidence of metapopulation dynamics in the riparian orchid Lepanthes rupestris by sampling over 1000 sites (250 initially occupied, 750 initially unoccupied) in biannual surveys for 5 years. Extinction and colonization of groups of orchids on a single substrate or patch (either trees or boulders) was common and more or less consistent across different time periods, and asynchronous subpopulation dynamics were evident among the populations. From this we predict non-zero equilibrium values for site occupancy () of L. rupestris. Nevertheless, this study species differed from a typical Levins’ metapopulation system in that small populations were more likely to go extinct than large populations, and that colonization of previously occupied sites was more common than colonization of initially unoccupied sites suggesting that site quality may influence population persistence and colonization. A major difficulty applying the metapopulation approach to orchid conservation is identifying empty sites suitable for colonization. In spite of this limitation, our study highlights the necessity of following multiple orchid subpopulations (e.g., an entire orchid “metapopulation” in the broad sense) may provide a more accurate basis for predicting persistence in epiphytic orchids. 相似文献
10.
Winsor H. Lowe 《Biological conservation》2012,145(1):48-53
Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide and several have been linked to climate change, but the long-term data needed to detect declines are largely restricted to pond-breeding species. This limits our knowledge of population trends in other major groups of amphibians, including stream salamanders, which have their greatest diversity in North America. I hypothesized that increasing air temperature and precipitation in northeastern North America caused abundance of the stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus in a New Hampshire population to decline between 1999 and 2010. I found a significant decline in abundance of G. porphyriticus adults over this 12-year period, and no trend in larval abundance. Adult abundance was negatively related to annual precipitation, which is predicted to increase further in the Northeast due to climate change. Analysis of a 6-year capture–mark–recapture data set for the same population showed no temporal variation in larval and adult detectability, validating the abundance data, and no variation in larval and adult survival. However, survival during metamorphosis from the larval to adult stage declined dramatically. These results suggest that increasing precipitation is causing a decline in adult recruitment, which, if it persists, will lead to local extinction. A likely mechanism for the decline in adult recruitment is mortality of metamorphosing individuals during spring and fall floods, which have increased in volume and frequency with the increase in precipitation. More broadly, this study presents strong evidence that the amphibian decline crisis extends to North America’s stream salamanders, and shows the critical need to collect population data on these species. 相似文献
11.
For population viability analysis of endangered orchid populations, it is crucial to disentangle the effects of weather and management from intrinsic orchid dynamics. When doing this, typically several months’ average temperatures and/or sums of precipitations are compared with some characteristics of plant performance. Here we tested, whether short averaging intervals (1-2 weeks) are more closely correlated with orchid performance. We used 5 years of data from five Dactylorhiza majalis populations, and have shown that the improvement of prediction by shortening the interval over which the temperatures are averaged or precipitation summed, even if detectable, is only weak and not significant. This, however, may be due to low weather variability during the study. Regarding the second aspect, the effect of management (presence or absence of mowing), we have found that leaf area of D. majalis at the regularly mown site was larger than that at the sites which were mown only once in 2 years, but we did not detect a significant effect of the absence of mowing on the incidence of flowering. Mowing can affect orchid performance in two ways: by reduced shading of orchids and by reducing competition with other species. Therefore, we have determined the co-occurring species associated with presence or absence of mowing and found that shading significantly affected the length of the flower stalk, the ratio of leaf width to leaf length at the end of the season, but did not affect seed weight and probability of flowering the next year. We conclude that the most appropriate management for D. majalis is mowing at least once a year, ideally at the end of June/beginning of July, after its fruiting. 相似文献
12.
Understanding how biodiversity is partitioned among alternative land-uses is an important first step for developing effective conservation plans in multiple-use landscapes. Here, we analysed nestedness patterns of species composition for nine different taxonomic groups [dung beetles, fruit-feeding butterflies, orchid bees, scavenger flies, leaf-litter amphibians, lizards, bats, birds and woody plants (trees and lianas)] in a multiple-use forestry landscape in the Brazilian Amazon containing primary, secondary and Eucalyptus plantation forests. A formal nestedness analysis was performed to investigate whether species-poor land-uses were comprised of a subset of species from more diverse forests, and the extent to which this pattern varied among taxa. At the landscape-scale the species-by-sites matrices were significantly nested for all nine taxonomic groups when both sites and species were sorted to maximally pack the species/occurrence matrix and, except for orchid bees when sorted by land-use intensity (primary forest to Eucalyptus plantation). Different patterns emerged when we conducted pairwise analyses of nestedness between the three forest types: (a) most of the taxonomic groups were nested in accordance with increased land-use intensity; (b) neither orchid bees nor leaf-litter amphibians from secondary forest made up a significant nested subset of primary forest species, although species found in Eucalyptus plantation sites were nested within secondary forest communities; and (c) lizards from Eucalyptus plantations were not a nested subset of either primary or secondary forest. Our findings emphasize the complex nature of patterns of species occupancy in tropical multiple-use forestry landscapes, and illustrate that there may be no easy solutions to questions regarding the conservation value of secondary and exotic plantation forests. 相似文献
13.
Age determination of tropical trees, and monocotyledons in general, is not an easy task. Representatives of the Dracaena genus have survived in woodlands on dry margins of the Tethys tropical forest since the Tertiary Period. Here we present analyses of Dracaena cinnabari (DC) stand dynamics via direct and indirect methods of age determination. The direct method has taken advantage of historical photographs of DC mountain woodlands from Soqotra during an Austrian scientific expedition in 1899 by comparing these with the woodland stage in 2004. A decline in the number of tree individuals is obvious, but considering the little that is known about dynamics of DC woodland, one cannot simply state that such decline means forest destruction. The results from this direct method are compared to an indirect mathematical method of age determination using data from 2003. Indirect age determination values differed only about 6.5% from those obtained with the direct method, indicating that the indirect methodology is quite precise. 相似文献
14.
In this study we compare estimates of the long-term mean stochastic population growth rates, E[r] for Petrogale xanthopus xanthopus (yellow-footed rock-wallaby), a threatened Australian species. In fluctuating environments such as semi-arid areas, herbivore populations respond directly to changes in the biomass of food resources. Biomass is generally correlated with rainfall, so it is often useful to model annual population growth rates of herbivores directly with rainfall. Models of this nature are referred to as numerical response models. The factors that are thought to threaten this species include competition from introduced herbivores and predation from foxes. Annual aerial survey data collected from 1997 to 2004 over approximately 600 km of transect line were analyzed in seven zones within South Australia. Using the Ivlev numerical response model, the annual population growth rates were found to correlate best with the rain that fell in the seven-month period immediately prior to the surveys. Not surprisingly, positive growth rates were found to be associated with higher rainfalls in this period, while negative growth rates were associated with lower rainfalls. We also used weighted bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals around our estimates of long-term mean stochastic population growth rates, E[r]. The findings suggest that the estimates of E[r] are positive in areas where there is fox and herbivore management. However, we found no evidence that this species will decline in the absence of these treatments. 相似文献
15.
Habitat clearance and fragmentation is increasingly threatening the biodiversity of tropical rainforests, however, the response of many insect species, even of key organisms, is still little understood. Using an extensive data set spanning over four years, we analyzed the effects of clearance and fragmentation of a Congo-Guinean rainforest in western Kenya on the abundance and the raid rates of two species of swarm-raiding army ants, which are considered keystone organisms of tropical rainforests. The abundance of army ants was measured by transect monitoring and by short-term pitfall trapping while raid rates were measured by long-term pitfall trapping over a period of five months. Dorylus wilverthi was the most abundant army ant in undisturbed rainforest and its abundance and raid rate strongly declined in small forest fragments. In contrast, the abundance of Dorylus molestus increased with decreasing fragment size and compensated for the decline of D. wilverthi in terms of abundance and ecological functionality (i.e. raiding rates). D. molestus appears to have a higher ability of using the agricultural land surrounding the Kakamega Forest than D. wilverthi, which may explain the species-specific differences in the susceptibility to habitat fragmentation. Our study demonstrates that habitat fragmentation may have a differential effect on two ecologically highly similar keystone species. Moreover, it shows that species compensation might help in maintaining an important ecosystem function (i.e. raiding by swarm-raiding army ants) in fragmented tropical rainforests. 相似文献
16.
During the last decades, most orchid species in much of Western Europe have suffered significant declines and the long-term survival of the remaining populations remains to a large extent uncertain. In particular, populations at range margins may be more prone to extinction than more central populations, as the former tend to be small and isolated, occur in ecologically marginal habitats and have a lower per-capita reproductive rate. In this study, we investigated the long-term dynamics and population viability of a population at the margin of its range of Spiranthes spiralis in the Netherlands. At present, only 2 out of 40 previously known populations persist. Individual plants were monitored for 24 years and their life span, flowering frequency and vegetative growth were determined. Individual plants showed large temporal variation in sexual and vegetative growth among years. The proportion of flowering plants varied from 0 (no plants were flowering) to 100 (all plants were flowering). Vegetative growth, on the other hand, increased when the number of individuals decreased. Dormancy was present, but occurred only in a few individuals. Using a non-structured population viability model, future prospects of this species were assessed. Calculation of extinction probabilities and estimated times to extinction using the diffusion approximation model showed that the species had a relatively high probability (79%) of surviving the next 20 years, whereas the median time to extinction was forty years. However, because 95% confidence intervals of the population growth included 1, we suggest that continued monitoring and additional genetic research are needed to assess the long-term viability of this species. 相似文献
17.
Goldenseal (Hydrastis canadensis) is a North American perennial clonal herb highly prized for its medicinal value. It is threatened at the northern range limit with only 20 populations known in Canada. To assist recovery planning, 13 populations were sampled to model dynamics. The fate of all ramets in one square-meter was monitored from 1998 to 2001. Transition matrices were built for 2000-2001, using three stage classes based on size and reproductive status. A six-stage pooled matrix, separating established ramets from newly produced ramets, was also constructed. Recruitment by seed was not observed and therefore excluded. The average population growth rate (λ) was 1.062 ± 0.053, which did not significantly differ from the equilibrium value (1.0) suggesting that the northern population is stationary. However, growth rates among population samples varied largely and had wide confidence intervals. Populations with λ-values less than or close to 1.0 require environmental change to increase. Recovery of goldenseal, and possibly other woodland perennials at risk, requires intervention aimed at population size augmentation, habitat optimization, and targeted dispersal. 相似文献
18.
Many orchids are currently red-listed due to changes in land use, and their future persistence will depend on management. Traditional land use like mowing is believed to favour orchids through increased survival and reproduction of established individuals, but the lack of data connecting their complex life cycle presently limits our ability to evaluate effects of management. Here we used data from 16 years of demographic monitoring to study how mowing affects population dynamics in two populations of the rare orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica. Both populations were characterized by long-lived individuals, low adult mortality and high seedling mortality. The traditional regime of mowing every second year strongly increased recruitment and reduced seed production in both populations, but had moderate effect on adult survival, growth rate and flowering probability. Population growth rate was positive for all population × treatment combinations. Traditional mowing significantly increased growth rate in both populations, and LTRE-analyses revealed that this primarily was a result of increased recruitment. The results indicate that demographic rates commonly associated with orchid persistence may be insensitive to traditional management, and underscores the importance of seed production and recruitment to maintain population growth in this long-lived species. The combination of low establishment success and no seed bank makes D. lapponica dependent on high seed input. Our results suggest that D. lapponica would benefit most from traditional mowing performed after seed dispersal in the study areas, but also suggest a high probability of future survival in the absence of mowing. 相似文献
19.
The 1991-1994 reintroductions of Florida endangered Pseudophoenix sargentii to 13 Florida Keys sites represent a rare example of a successful multi-agency long-term effort to conserve a long-lived palm. To assess reintroduction success, we compared population demographics with and without reintroduced plants and conducted population viability analyses. Since 1991, the wild population has increased 6.4-fold. Survival from 2000-2004 was 94%, growth was positive (λ = 1.013), and there was no predicted extinction risk. Recent wild population growth is attributed to good seedling recruitment and removing the greatest threats. After 14 years, reintroductions had 43% survival, increased total plants in the wild by 27%, and expanded the species’ distribution. Reintroduced plants had faster maturation rates, improved population age structure, and enhanced population growth (λ = 1.032). Success varied with transplant year, location, microsite, and original transplant size. Failures in 1991 and at some historic sites emphasize the need for a multi-year, multi-site approach to reintroductions to buffer against stochastic losses. Rockland hammocks and the tops of coastal berms had greatest plant growth and survival. Large transplants had the greatest survival. Because no reintroduced plants are reproductive, transitions between stages are extremely slow, and plants may require >30 years to mature, continued institutional dedication to long-term monitoring will be required to assess whether the populations are self-sustaining. Horticultural expertise and ex situ collections complimented support of land managing agencies for the species’ preservation. These first rare plant reintroductions to Florida State Parks opened avenues for more plant conservation efforts and public interpretation. 相似文献
20.
《Biological conservation》2002,103(2):151-161
In this paper we assess the conservation status of five of the most threatened species in the Pyrenean range (listed in the European Habitats Directive), and present updates of their distribution, reliable censuses to estimate population sizes, population growth rate, population structure, longevity, reproductive success and frequency of herbivory. Recent surveys and careful censuses revealed that the four taxa exclusively restricted to rocky habitats (Borderea chouardii, Androsace pyrenaica, Petrocoptis pseudoviscosa, Petrocoptis montsicciana) have more populations and/or individuals than previously thought. The remaining species, an orchid (Cypripedium calceolus), showed an important decline in population number. So while the rupicolous taxa might be considered naturally rare, the orchid is becoming rare. We failed to find evidence of current poor performance within populations, as recruitment was detected, population growth rate was quite stable in recent years, fruit and seed set was apparently adequate, and herbivory and predation were absent or very low. Additionally, most of the species show a long life span, which might buffer them against demographic and environmental stochasticity in absence of human disturbance. 相似文献