Prey depletion caused by overfishing and the decline of marine megafauna in eastern Ionian Sea coastal waters (central Mediterranean)

Surveys primarily aimed at determining dolphin encounter rates were conducted from small inflatable craft in eastern Ionian Sea coastal waters between 1997 and 2004. During 633 surveys totalling 21,276 km of effort, observations of cetaceans and other marine species spotted in a study area of 480 km² were systematically recorded. Common dolphin encounter rates declined 25-fold across the study period, steadily decreasing from 2.18 encounters/100 km in 1997 to 0.09 encounters/100 km in 2004. Encounter rates of tuna also declined significantly. Swordfish encounter rates dropped from 1.03 encounters/100 km in 1997 to 0-0.12 in 1998-2004. Encounter rates of bottlenose dolphins did not show significant trends. The decline of high-order marine predators feeding on epipelagic prey was consistent with the hypothesis of prey depletion, likely resulting from intensive exploitation of local fish stocks, particularly anchovies and sardines. The catholic feeding habits and opportunistic behaviour of bottlenose dolphins may allow them to withstand the effects of overfishing at their present low density.     

Genetic isolation and morphological divergence of Black Sea bottlenose dolphins

The Black Sea is a semi-enclosed body of water that differs from the adjacent Mediterranean Sea in terms of its biodiversity, oceanographical and ecological characteristics. There is growing international concern about pollution in the Black Sea and other anthropogenic threats to its fauna. The bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is one of three species of cetaceans living in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Despite considerable research on bottlenose dolphins elsewhere, the extent of human impacts on the Black Sea populations is unknown. Previous attempts to award special conservation status to Black Sea cetaceans have failed specifically because policy makers have viewed their ecological and evolutionary uniqueness as equivocal. This study assessed divergence between Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean bottlenose dolphins for 26 cranial measurements (n = 75 adult bottlenose dolphin skulls) and mitochondrial DNA (n = 99 individuals). Black Sea bottlenose dolphins are smaller than those in the Mediterranean, and possess a uniquely shaped skull. As in a previous study, we found the Black Sea population to be genetically distinct, with relatively low levels of mtDNA diversity. Population genetic models suggest that Black Sea bottlenose dolphins have so little gene flow with the Mediterranean due to historical isolation that they should be managed separately.     

Measurement, management and mitigation of operational interactions between the South Australian Sardine Fishery and short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis)

This study arose from recommendations given in response to a legislated ecological assessment of the South Australian Sardine Fishery in 2004, urging it to: (i) attempt to mitigate operational interactions with marine mammals if excessive levels were detected; and (ii) improve the accuracy of their reporting of these events.An initial observer program revealed high rates of encirclement and mortality (1.78 and 0.39 dolphins per net-set, respectively) of short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis). This equated to an estimate of 1728 encirclements and 377 mortalities across the entire fleet over the same period. The average time taken for fishers to respond to encirclements was 135.93 ± 3.72 min and 21.3% of encircled animals subsequently died. During that time, fishers only reported 3.6% of encirclements and 1.9% of mortalities recorded by observers.A code of practice (CoP) was subsequently introduced aimed at mitigating operational interactions. A second observer program revealed a significant reductions in the observed rates of dolphin encirclement (0.22; down 87.3%) and mortality (0.01; down 97.1%) with an estimate of 169 and eight, respectively. The average time taken for fishers to respond to dolphin encirclements also reduced to 16.33 ± 4.67 min (down 76.9%) and the proportion of encircled animals that subsequently died reduced to 5.0%. Agreement between industry reports and observer records improved, with the fishery reporting 57.9% and 58.9% of the rate of encirclements and mortalities, respectively, recorded by observers.A number of avoidance and release strategies in the CoP may have been responsible for these improvements. In particular, fishers were required to delay or relocate their activities if dolphins were observed prior to fishing and to release encircled dolphins immediately or abort the fishing event if release procedures were unsuccessful. Future improvements to the CoP include: (i) improved response times when an encircled dolphin is detected; (ii) better use of behavioural cues for deciding when to abort a net-set; (iii) ceasing fishing during rough weather; and (iv) continuing to increase reporting accuracy by fishers. It is also recommended that the abundance, movements and boundaries of the common dolphin population in the region be determined, so that the impact of fishing activities on their status can be established.     

Response of travelling bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) to experimental approaches by a powerboat in Jervis Bay, New South Wales, Australia

Powerboats are potentially a significant source of disturbance to coastal cetaceans. Information is scarce, however, on the nature of interactions between powerboats and dolphins, particularly when both surface and acoustic behaviour are combined. The surface behaviour and acoustic response of travelling dolphins to approaches by a powerboat were assessed by a series of experimental trials between November 2001 and November 2003 in Jervis Bay, New South Wales, Australia. Dolphin behaviour was monitored continuously from an independent research boat before, during and after a powerboat approached (n = 12). Treatments were interspersed with control observations (n = 12). Changes in surface behaviour indicated differences between the treatment and control periods (z = 2.24, p = 0.025), with dolphins tending to alter their surface behaviour when exposed to the powerboat approach. Analysis also revealed a change in the direction of travel by dolphin groups when approached (z = 3.22, p = 0.001). Changes in surface behaviour occurred at vessel approach distances outside the minimum approach distance of 30 m for recreational and commercial vessels, as proposed by the New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service. In contrast, there were no changes in dolphin whistle rates (F_3,12 = 0.74, p = 0.54) or the duration of echolocation click bouts (F_3,12 = 0.76, p = 0.59) when approached. These findings indicate that powerboats do affect the surface behaviour and direction of travelling inshore bottlenose dolphins in Jervis Bay; however it appears that this impact is not reflected in their acoustic behaviour.     

An alternative to dolphin oil as a fish attractant in the Ganges River system: conservation of the Ganges River dolphin

Oil extracted from blubber of the Ganges River dolphin, Platanista gangetica, is used as a fish attractant in India and Bangladesh. This oil fishery is associated with the mortality of hundreds of dolphins every year. Oil from fish scraps was field tested for 121 days during 1997-1999 in the Ganges at Patna and was a very effective alternative to dolphin oil as a fish attractant. Fishing with fish oil resulted in higher catches and greater income per person per hour (Rs. 17.8±12.5) than fishing with dolphin oil (Rs. 11.6±9.3). However, there is no statistically significant difference between the results from fishing with dolphin and fish oil. Oil from fish scraps is inexpensive and can be made readily available to all the fishermen. Its widespread use would help in conserving the endangered Ganges River dolphin.     

Catch composition and conservation management of a human-dolphin cooperative cast-net fishery in the Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar

A study of the catch composition of a cooperative fishery practiced between cast-net fishermen and Irrawaddy dolphins (Orcaella brevirostris) in the Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar, was conducted at fishing grounds near Myay Zun, Indown, The‘ Kyun and Hsithe during November and December 2006 and 2007. A total of 4139 fish from 42 species and five crustaceans from a single species were recorded in 1099 net casts made during 33 fishing sessions. Sufficient data were only available to conduct in-depth analyses of catches obtained from Myay Zun (776 net casts, 41.2% while cooperating with dolphins). These analyses indicated that catch per cast, defined by the number of fish, their weight and economic value, was higher (Mann-Whitney P < 0.001) during both 2006 (about double for all parameters) and 2007 (about triple for all parameters) while the dolphins were cooperating with fishermen. Differences in catch between cooperative and non-cooperative net casts were primarily explained by the much higher frequency of empty catches (Chi-square P < 0.001, df = 3 during both 2006 and 2007) recorded during non-cooperative casts (68.3% and 71.3% in 2006 and 2007, respectively) versus cooperative casts (13.7% and 31.6% in 2006 and 2007, respectively). Overall, fish catch could be described as meager, which may partially be explained by the abnormal timing of flow recession during both years. However, the cast-net fishermen also consistently reported dramatically depleted catches in recent years due to illegal electric fishing. Elimination of electric fishing in a recently established protected area will be crucial for conserving the dolphins and the cooperative cast-net fishery.     

Linking monitoring and intervention for improved management of tigers in the Sundarbans of Bangladesh

Baseline data on distribution and abundance of tigers in the Sundarbans is required to identify problem areas and evaluate management strategies. This paper outlines a khal (creek) bank survey of track set frequency throughout the Bangladesh Sundarbans to aid formulation of a management-driven monitoring program. Three teams of two observers surveyed a total of 1 201 km of waterways throughout the Sundarbans, recording 1 338 tiger track sets. These sets became unrecognizable as tiger sign after a mean 10 days (range 6-14). Proportion of detectable sign recorded was 0.91. Mean (±standard error) sample unit track frequency was 1.12 ± 0.86 track sets/km of khal. The mean coefficient of variance in sample unit track rate, estimated by multiple counts of six sample units, was 0.21 (range 0.06-0.34). Track frequency generally increased from northeast to southwest. Four sample units (6%) had signs of reproduction, with a mean litter size of 1.75 ± 0.5. Monte Carlo simulation suggests a monitoring program of one complete survey every two years will have power of 0.8 (α = 0.2), to detect track frequency declines of ?19% and increases of ?17%. We recommend this monitoring scheme be implemented on the Indian side of the Sundarbans to provide a standard assessment of the tiger population and to form the basis for setting management objectives and evaluating transboundary conservation initiatives.     

Characteristics of occupied habitats and identification of sites for restoration and translocation of New England cottontail populations

Since 1960 the range occupied by New England cottontails (NEC, Sylvilagus transitionalis) in the northeastern United States has declined dramatically. Populations in some regions are known to be vulnerable to extirpation, but little was known about the status of populations in most areas. A recently conducted (2000-2004) range-wide survey identified five disjunct populations within approximately 14% of the historic range of NEC. We incorporated the results of this survey into a geographic information system to examine habitat features associated with remnant populations of NEC at two spatial scales. The regional scale characterized habitats within our survey sample units, 7.5 min topographic quadrangles (quads, ∼40 × 10 km) that were occupied by NEC or vacant. The landscape scale described habitats within a 1-km radius of occupied patches and an equivalent sample of vacant patches. At the regional scale, northeastern and southeastern populations were associated with human-dominated habitats with a greater abundance of developed and disturbed lands, less forest coverage, more edge habitats, and less snow fall than unoccupied quads. Landscapes occupied by NEC in these regions were characterized by a greater abundance of potential dispersal corridors than unoccupied landscapes. In contrast, quads occupied by NEC in the southwestern portion of the historic range were in rural areas that were dominated by forests and agricultural fields. At the landscape scale, southwestern populations were affiliated patches of habitat surrounded by more agricultural lands than patches that were not occupied by NEC. Logistic regression models were then developed to identify habitats suitable for restoration or translocation within each region. We suggest that initial restoration efforts be directed toward expanding existing populations of NEC. Next, habitat connections should be developed among these populations. Finally, new populations should then be established via translocation in portions of the historic range that are vacant. In addition to promoting New England cottontails, management of early-successional and shrub-dominated habitats in the northeastern United States will benefit other taxa of conservation concern that are dependent on these habitats.     

Reproduction and pre-dispersal survival of Iberian lynx in a subpopulation of the Doñana National Park

Little is known about the reproduction of the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) even though it is the most endangered felid in the world. We studied during 9 years several reproductive parameters of the Iberian lynx in one of the subpopulations situated in Doñana National Park (south-western Spain), by means of radio-tracking, direct observations and photo-trapping. The potential breeding subpopulation was usually composed of 3 adult females, which bred 83% of the total possible 29 female-reproductive year. The minimum total number of cubs born during the study was 64 (7.7 ± 0.69 per year). There was no correlation between the number of cubs born or number of breeding females and population size of European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus, the main prey of the lynx). All known births (n = 16) occurred in March except one in April and another in June. Mean litter size was 3.0 ± 0.16 (n = 16, range = 2-4). Sex-ratio (n = 59 cubs) was 1.03:1.00 (females:males). Nevertheless, the commonest picture was a female with 2 cubs older than 3 months. Altogether, at age of 3 months, 75% of cubs survived. Number of lynx alive at 10 months old and before dispersing was 69% and 57%, respectively. Sex did not affect survival for any age. Normally, it was not possible to know the causes of the death of cubs younger than 3 months. Survival at this age was not related with mother, mother age, or rabbit abundance. All females that bred were older than 3 years. The age of last reproduction was 9 years. For 3 females that were tracked during almost their complete reproductive life, the life time reproductive output was between 11 and 19 cubs. Iberian lynx reproductive parameters did not respond to wide changes in prey abundance during the study. Conservation plans considering the extraction of cubs with a low survival probability should be considered by managers, for instance, in translocation campaigns.     

Abundance and conservation status of the Yangtze finless porpoise in the Yangtze River, China

The Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis) is endemic to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China. It is the only freshwater population of porpoises in the world and is currently listed as Endangered by IUCN. In November and December 2006 we used two boats and line transect methods to survey the entire current range of the population, except for two lakes (Poyang and Dongting). Sighting results were similar for both boats, so we pooled all data and analyzed them using two line transect models and a strip transect model. All models produced similar estimates of abundance (1111, 1225 and 1000). We then added independent estimates of the number of porpoises from the two lakes for a total estimate of approximately 1800 porpoises. Our findings indicate that the population continues to decline and that its distribution is becoming more fragmented. Our current estimate in the main river is slightly less than half the estimate from surveys between 1984 and 1991 (which was probably an underestimate). We also found an apparent gap in the distribution of porpoises between Yueyang and Shishou (∼150 km), where sightings had previously been common. Continued threats to Yangtze finless porpoises include bycatch in unregulated and unselective fishing, habitat degradation through dredging, pollution and noise, vessel strikes and water development. Immediate protective measures are urgently needed to ensure the persistence of finless porpoises in the Yangtze River. The survey design and analytical methods developed in this study might be appropriate for surveys of cetaceans in other river systems.     

An approach for regional threat assessment under IUCN Red List criteria that is robust to uncertainty: The Fiordland bottlenose dolphins are critically endangered

Numerous globally abundant species are exposed to human impacts that threaten the viability of regional populations. Assessing and characterising the risks faced by these populations can have significant implications for biodiversity conservation, given the ecological importance of many such species. To address these risks, the IUCN is starting to conduct assessments of regional populations in addition to species-level assessments of conservation status. Here, we demonstrate a threat assessment process that is robust to uncertainty, applying the IUCN criteria to a regional population of bottlenose dolphins in Fiordland, New Zealand. We compiled available population-specific information to assess the population under the five Red List criteria. We estimated there were 205 Fiordland bottlenose dolphins (CV = 3.5%), using current estimates of abundance for two sub-populations and stochastic modelling of an earlier estimate for the third sub-population. Population trajectory and extinction risk were assessed using stochastic age-structured Leslie matrix population models. The majority of model runs met the criteria for classification as critically endangered (C1: 67.6% of runs) given the number of mature individuals (123; CV = 6.7%) and the predicted rate of population decline (average decline: 31.4% over one generation). The evidence of isolation of the population confirms this was an appropriate regional classification. This approach provided an assessment that was robust to uncertainty.     

Small cetacean captures in Peruvian artisanal fisheries: High despite protective legislation

We detail the first direct, at sea monitoring of small cetacean interactions with Peruvian artisanal drift gillnet and longline fisheries. A total of 253 small cetaceans were captured during 66 monitored fishing trips (Gillnet: 46 trips; Longline: 20 trips) from the port of Salaverry, northern Peru (8^o14′S, 78^o59′W) from March 2005 to July 2007. The most commonly captured species were common dolphins (Delphinus spp.) (47%), dusky dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obscurus) (29%), common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) (13%) and Burmeister’s porpoises (Phocoena spinipinnis) (6%). An estimated 95% of common dolphin bycatch was of long-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus capensis). Overall bycatch per unit effort for gillnet vessels (mean ± sd) was estimated to be 0.65 ± 0.41 animals.set⁻¹ (range 0.05-1.50) and overall catch (bycatch and harpoon) was 4.96 ± 3.33 animals.trip⁻¹ (range 0.33-13.33). Based upon total fishing effort for Salaverry we estimated the total annual average small cetacean bycatch by gillnet vessels as 2412 animals.year⁻¹ (95% CI 1092-4303) for 2002-2007. This work indicates that, in at least one Peruvian port, bycatch and harpooning of small cetaceans persist at high levels and on a regular basis, particularly in driftnet vessels, despite the existence since the mid-1990s of national legislation banning the capture of marine mammals and commerce in their products. It is concluded that the coast of Peru is likely still one of the world’s principal areas for concern regarding high small cetacean bycatch and there is clearly an urgent need to increase the geographic scope of observer effort to elucidate the full magnitude of this issue.     

Effectiveness of new agri-environment schemes in providing foraging resources for bumblebees in intensively farmed landscapes

Intensive farming has contributed to the serious declines in abundance and geographic range suffered by several bumblebee species in Europe and North America. Recent UK agri-environmental policy aims to conserve and restore bumblebee populations by providing foraging habitats on arable field margins. We examined the effectiveness of strategies to achieve this, including sowing seed mixtures of (1) tussocky grass species, (2) wildflowers and (3) pollen- and nectar-rich plants. These were compared to conventionally managed cereal crops. Sampling was undertaken in 32 10 × 10 km squares throughout England, each containing a sample of the different field margin types. Bumblebee abundance in July and August was significantly higher on pollen and nectar margins (86 ± 14 bees per 100 m) compared with wildflower margins (43 ± 14), mature grass margins (6 ± 14) and recently sown grass margins (8 ± 4). Bees were virtually absent from the cereal crop (0.2 ± 0.1). Bumblebee species richness was significantly higher on margins sown with either wildflowers or the pollen and nectar mix. There was evidence that richness of the bumblebee assemblage at the 10 × 10 km square scale was positively correlated with land use heterogeneity, the proportion of grassland, and the abundance and richness of dicotyledon flowers. The abundance of long-tongued bees per margin was explained by the number of pollen and nectar agreements per 10 × 10 km square, together with flower abundance. Future research is required to determine the quantity and location of foraging habitat required to sustain bumblebee populations at the landscape scale.     

The effects of aquaculture on bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops sp.) ranging in Shark Bay, Western Australia

The increasing presence of aquaculture in coastal waters calls for a better understanding of its environmental effects. Currently little information is available on the impact of shellfish farms on cetaceans. Here we compare long-term ranging patterns of adult female bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp. in Shark Bay, Western Australia) before and during full-scale pearl oyster farming operations, to determine if they were displaced. When the exact location of the oyster farm was determined, the dolphins decreased their use of that area after the farm was in place. Tracks of adult female dolphin movement near the oyster farm were compared to tracks of dolphin movement near an ecologically similar area where no oyster farm existed. Tracks near the oyster farm were less likely to enter the oyster farm itself than tracks near an ecologically similar location. This suggests that shellfish aquaculture could have a large impact on small cetaceans. The analytical techniques discussed apply broadly to aquatic and terrestrial animals.     

Geochemical tracing and spatial evolution of the sediment bed load of the Romaine River,Québec,Canada

A four-reservoir hydroelectric complex which is projected on the Romaine River, in eastern Québec, Canada, will likely lead to the complete settling of the sand-size bed load of the river. In order to characterise the present river bed load sources, sediment transport and sedimentary connectivity, a study was conducted to document the compositional continuum of the lower 300 km portion of the river. Bed load samples were collected during the late summer low water period and ICP-MS geochemical analyses of the light and heavy mineral portions were conducted. Principal component analysis of the results successfully identified a series of distinctive geochemical domains. Multivariate Euclidean distance coefficients were also calculated between consecutive samples along the river revealing major bed load compositional breaks. These results indicate a longitudinal fractionation of the bed load along the 300 km course of the river. This is further supported by the sedimentary budget calculated from the annual sedimentary input derived from erosion rates of the river banks, from sediment bed load measurements at three gauging stations and from calculated bed load transport capacity at these three locations. It appears that significant sediment accommodation space is available on the upper course (250 km) of the Romaine River, in spite of the fact that this river has drained highly sediment-laden meltwaters from the receding Laurentide Ice Sheet, some 10 ka ago. This accommodation space leads to the renewal of the bed load due to recurrent partial to complete sedimentation. The major part of the bed load reaching the Romaine River mouth originates from the lower 50 km of the river course.     

Dynamics of a black bear population within a desert metapopulation

Understanding metapopulation dynamics in large carnivores with naturally fragmented populations is difficult because of the large temporal and spatial context of such dynamics. We coupled a long-term database of visitor sighting records with an intensive 3-year telemetry study to describe population dynamics of recolonization by black bears (Ursus americanus) of Big Bend National Park in Texas during 1988-2002. This population, which occurs within a metapopulation in western Texas and northern Mexico, increased from a single pair of known breeding-age animals in 1988 to 29 bears (including 6 females of breeding age) in March 2000 (λ = 1.25/year). A migration and dispersal event in August-December 2000 reduced the population to 2 adult females and as few as 5-7 individuals. One-way movement distances from the study area during this event averaged 76 km for females (n = 7) and 92 km for males (n = 4), and 3 animals conducted migrations of at least 154, 178, and 214 km, respectively. Our observations exemplify the importance of stochastic events on demographics of small populations and highlight the potential scale of bear movement among montane islands of southwestern North America. They also provide insight into the use of dispersal data in parameterizing metapopulation models for large carnivores.     

Regional and local factors affecting diversity, abundance and activity of free-living, N2-fixing bacteria in Australian agricultural soils

N₂-fixation by free-living (diazotrophic) microorganism is a key process affecting ecosystem functioning in soils. Understanding drivers affecting diazotrophic community assemblages and activities may lead to management practices to increase primary production and/or environmental sustainability. We used PCR-DGGE to determine the fundamental relationships between diazotrophic community structure and in a wide range of soils across southern Australia. In addition qPCR, RT-qPCR and N₂-fixation (acetylene reduction) were used to investigate factors influencing gene abundance, expression and processes in similar soils with different agricultural inputs. Across 22 soils, the structural composition of the nifH community was significantly influenced by site (ANOSIM R = 0.876; P = 0.001). The effects of management practices were evident, and often larger than between-soil differences, but were only present at some sites. Differences in nifH communities between sites correlated to particulate organic carbon (POC; measured by mid-infrared spectroscopy) content of the soils (BIO-ENV test; ρ = 0.502; P = 0.001), but not other factors including total soil C. In 3 soils from the Murrumbidgee irrigation region of NSW, intensification of the farming systems was associated with increasing N₂-fixation (P < 0.05), except where rice was cultivated. N₂-fixation correlated either with nifH abundance or gene expression in soils, but not both. Our data shows that soil C is closely linked to diazotrophic ecology. Principally, the amount of C entering the soil system is directly related to the abundance and N₂-fixation activity of free-living bacteria. However, we also show that C in the POC pool has associative links to the genetic diversity of the soil diazotroph community. Given the importance of diversity and abundance of functional organisms in supporting ecosystem processes, we suggest that soil C inputs should be considered for both qualitative and quantitative properties when considering impacts on diazotrophic bacterial ecology.     

Site fidelity and along-shore range in Hector's dolphin, an endangered marine dolphin from New Zealand

To document site fidelity and the alongshore range of individual Hector's dolphins we analysed sightings of 32 photographically identified dolphins, each seen ?10 times at Banks Peninsula, New Zealand, between 1985 and 1997. The furthest two sightings of an individual were 106 km apart. All other individuals ranged over less than 60 km (x?=31.0 km, SE=2.43) of coastline. Gender did not significantly influence alongshore range (female x?=30.4 km, SE =3.21, n=18; male x?=27.4 km, SE=5.68, n=5). Site fidelity was high: for example, on average, individuals were seen in Akaroa Harbour for about two thirds of the years they were known to be alive. These data suggest that impacts on Hector's dolphins are most appropriately managed on a small spatial scale.     

Dynamics of a declining amphibian metapopulation: Survival, dispersal and the impact of climate

Climate can interact with population dynamics in complex ways. In this study we describe how climatic factors influenced the dynamics of an amphibian metapopulation over 12 years through interactions with survival, recruitment and dispersal. Low annual survival of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus) was related to mild winters and heavy rainfall, which impacted the metapopulation at the regional level. Consequently, survival varied between years but not between subpopulations. Despite this regional effect, the four subpopulations were largely asynchronous in their dynamics. Three out of the four subpopulations suffered reproductive failure in most years, and recruitment to the metapopulation relied on one source. Variation in recruitment and juvenile dispersal was therefore probably driving asynchrony in population dynamics. At least one subpopulation went extinct over the 12 year period. These trends are consistent with simulations of the system, which predicted that two subpopulations had an extinction risk of >50% if adult survival fell below 30% in combination with low juvenile survival. Intermittent recruitment may therefore only result in population persistence if compensated for by relatively high adult survival. Mild winters may consequently reduce the viability of amphibian metapopulations. In the face of climate change, conservation actions may be needed at the local scale to compensate for reduced adult survival. These would need to include management to enhance recruitment, connectivity and dispersal.     

Determining the spatial scale for conservation purposes - an example with grizzly bears

This study suggests procedures for determining the spatial scale for conservation guidelines for animals, giving an illustration with an analysis of grizzly bear habitat selection. Bear densities were sampled by identifying hairs at bait stations in British Columbia. Habitat variables were measured using remote sensing. Spatial scale was changed by varying the window size over which the variables were averaged. First, the spatial pattern of bears was studied, measuring the patchiness in bear densities at a variety of spatial scales, by calculating the correlation in bear densities between adjacent windows. This was repeated for the habitat variables. Finally, the overall interaction between bears and habitats was analysed, measuring the strength of habitat selection at different spatial scales. There are three domains of scale: at 2-4 km, bears and habitats are patchy, at 5-10 km, bears select for habitats, and at 40+ km, habitats are patchy and bears select for habitats. At scales of 40+ km, bears selected for: (i) higher slopes, or (ii) higher slopes, and some combination of more avalanche chutes, fewer roads and trees, higher elevations, and less logged land. Within 15 km areas, bears selected for 6 km areas that are either at higher elevations, or at higher elevations and had fewer trees. The relationship of conservation guidelines at different spatial scales should be determined by measuring and comparing hierarchical to non-hierarchical selection. The scales that bears select for habitats roughly correspond to the scales used in present grizzly bear conservation plans in British Columbia.