At-sea distribution of waved albatrosses and the Galápagos Marine Reserve

Albatross populations worldwide are threatened by incidental takes in longline fishery operations. The recent establishment of the Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR) is relevant to the longline bycatch issue, as it prohibits industrial longlining in the vicinity of the major nesting site of waved albatrosses (Phoebastria irrorata). However, the legality of the fishing protections is being challenged, highlighting a need for data on use of the GMR by albatrosses. We used satellite tracking over a total of four breeding seasons to determine the distribution of waved albatrosses inside and outside the GMR, and thereby assess the degree of protection that GMR provisions offer to this species. During the incubation period, breeding adults made commuting trips from the nesting island (Isla Española) to the Peruvian upwelling zone, traveling north, east, and south after leaving the nest. During the brooding period, the distribution contracted markedly, and most satellite fixes were within the GMR. During the rearing period, breeders performed both long trips outside the GMR and short trips within. The southeastern portion of the GMR is used throughout the incubation, brooding, and early rearing periods by breeding waved albatrosses. Indirect information from non-breeding adults indicates that they are likely to use the waters of the GMR extensively.     

A global assessment of the impact of fisheries-related mortality on shy and white-capped albatrosses: Conservation implications

Hundreds of thousands of seabirds are killed each year as a result of interacting with longline and trawl fishing operations, and the severity of the impact varies regionally. Shy and white-capped albatrosses, Thalassarche cauta and Thalassarche steadi respectively, are phenotypically similar species known to be incidentally killed by fishing operations. The magnitude of this mortality has not previously been assessed across their range. Here we examine recent effort and bycatch rates in fisheries known to incidentally kill these species and qualitatively evaluate the level of impact of each fishery. Results indicate that over 8500 of these albatrosses may be killed annually, although the reliability of this estimate is low due to the paucity of comprehensive observer data in most fisheries. Of the estimated deaths of all seabird species in the fisheries assessed, trawl and longline fisheries killed birds in approximately equal proportions, but when the mortality levels of shy-type albatrosses were examined, trawl fisheries were responsible for 75% of all deaths. Data suggest most of these birds were killed in South African, Namibian and New Zealand demersal trawl fisheries and the South Africa pelagic longline fishery. Because most adult shy albatrosses are comparatively sedentary and rarely found outside Australian waters, it is primarily juvenile shy albatrosses that regularly encounter fishing fleets known to kill large numbers of albatrosses. In contrast, throughout most of their range juvenile and adult white-capped albatrosses are exposed to fisheries that collectively kill many thousands of these albatrosses each year. These data emphasise the urgent need for robust assessments of the impact of bycatch at a species and population level, and the urgent implementation of effective mitigation measures.     

From both sides: Dire demographic consequences of carnivorous mice and longlining for the Critically Endangered Tristan albatrosses on Gough Island

The IUCN recently uplisted the Tristan albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) to Critically Endangered. Here we present new data indicating negative population trends on Gough Island arising from low adult survival (∼91%, ascribed to accidental mortality on fishing gear) and low breeding success (averaging 32%, due to mouse predation). Fledgling production from 1979 to 2007 and numbers of incubating adults from 1956 to 2007 have both decreased by ∼1% p.a. Consecutive annual counts of incubating adults and a population model permit the first reliable estimates of the Tristan albatross population, presently 5400 breeding adults and 11,300 birds in all age- and stage-classes. Population models explore scenarios of likely demographic trends using combinations of hypothetical best-case estimates vs. observed estimates for two key parameters: adult survival and breeding success. These scenarios highlight the relative benefits to the species of eradicating mice or mitigating bycatch. The model scenario using observed estimates predicts annual growth rate at −2.85%. Adult survival rates have probably decreased in recent years, concomitant with increased longline fishing effort, which might explain the discrepancy between counts and modelled trends. Negative trends cannot be reversed by improving breeding success alone, and adult survival must exceed an improbable 97% to balance the current chick production. A worst-case scenario including a fixed number of adult deaths annually predicted a catastrophic 4.2% p.a. decrease and extinction in ∼30 years. Population growth was most sensitive to adult survival, but even using an adult survival estimate without fishery mortality, current breeding success is insufficient to maintain the population. These findings do not support the ‘compensatory mitigation of bycatch’ model (offsetting bycatch impacts by eradicating invasive species), and the impacts of both fishery mortality and mouse predation must be addressed to improve the conservation status of the Critically Endangered Tristan albatross.     

Potential biological removal of albatrosses and petrels with minimal demographic information

Seabirds such as albatrosses and petrels are frequently caught in longline and trawl fisheries, but limited demographic data for many species creates management challenges. A method for estimating the potential biological removal (the PBR method) for birds requires knowledge of adult survival, age at first breeding, a conservation goal, and the lower limit of a 60% confidence interval for the population size. For seabirds, usually only the number of breeding pairs is known, rather than the actual population size. This requires estimating the population size from the number of breeding pairs when important demographic variables, such as breeding success, juvenile survival, and the proportion of the adult population that engages in breeding, are unknown. In order to do this, a simple population model was built where some demographic parameters were known while others were constrained by considering plausible asymptotic estimates of the growth rate. While the median posterior population estimates are sensitive to the assumed population growth rate, the 20th percentile estimates are not. This allows the calculation of a modified PBR value that is based on the number of breeding pairs instead of the population size. For threatened albatross species, this suggests that human-caused mortalities should not exceed 1.5% of the number of breeding pairs, while for threatened petrel species, mortalities should be kept below 1.2% of the number of breeding pairs. The method is applied to 22 species and sub-species of albatrosses and petrels in New Zealand that are of management concern, of which at least 10 have suffered mortalities near or above these levels.     

Population trends in a community of large Procellariiforms of Indian Ocean: Potential effects of environment and fisheries interactions

Despite the worrying conservation status of several albatross and petrel population, the long-term trends of many populations remain largely unknown and the causes of decline in many cases are known or very strongly suspected to be incidental mortality in fisheries. Here we combine long-term monitoring of population trends, breeding success and band recoveries to examine the past and current status of five species of albatrosses and giant petrels breeding at the same site: sooty albatross (Phoebetria fusca), light-mantled albatross (Phoebetria palpebrata), wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans), northern giant (Macronectes halli) and southern giant petrels (Macronectes giganteus) on Possession Island, Crozet archipelago. We identified three groups of trends over a 25-years period (1980-2005) suggesting common underlying causes for these species in relation to their bioclimatic foraging ranges. The Antarctic species - light-mantled albatross and southern giant petrel - appeared stable and increased recently, the Sub-Antarctic species - wandering albatross and northern giant petrel - declined with intermediate periods of increase, and finally the subtropical species - sooty albatross - declined all over the period. Breeding success, indicative of environmental conditions, showed two kinds of pattern (low and fluctuating versus high and/or increasing) which were consistent with oceanographic variations as found in a previous study. We present the analysis of fisheries-related recoveries, indicative of fisheries bycatch risks showing specific catch rates. No direct relationship between population trends and longline fishing effort was detected, probably because census data alone are not sufficient to capture the potentially complex response of demographic parameters of different life stages to environmental variation. This study highlights the contrasted changes of procellariiform species and the particularly worrying status of the subtropical sooty albatrosses, and in a lesser extent of Sub-Antarctic species.     

Reducing incidental mortality of seabirds with an underwater longline setting funnel

A demersal longline fishery for Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) that commenced off the Prince Edward Islands during 1996 has killed significant proportions of locally breeding albatrosses and petrels. As one of a suite of mitigation measures, we tested the efficacy of a Mustad underwater setting funnel to reduce incidental mortality of seabirds. The funnel, which deploys the longline 1-2 m beneath the sea surface, was used on 52% of 1714 sets (total effort 5.12 million hooks) over a 2-year period. Used in conjunction with a bird-scaring line, overall seabird bycatch rate was low (0.022 birds per 1000 hooks), and was dominated by white-chinned petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) (88% of the 114 birds killed). Bycatch rate was three times lower when the funnel was used both by day and at night. Daytime catch rates with the funnel were less than those attained during night sets without the funnel. In conjunction with other mitigation measures, underwater setting offers a significant reduction in seabird mortality in this fishery and could increase fishing efficiency by allowing daytime setting. However, small numbers of albatrosses were caught during daytime sets with the funnel, and its use for daytime sets should be closely monitored.     

At-sea distribution of breeding Tristan albatrosses Diomedea dabbenena and potential interactions with pelagic longline fishing in the South Atlantic Ocean

The endangered Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena is restricted to Gough and Inaccessible Islands. The species is killed as bycatch by longline fisheries in the South Atlantic, but the impact of this mortality is unknown. We satellite tracked 38 breeding Tristan albatrosses and assessed the seasonal and annual at-sea distribution of these birds in relation to reported pelagic longline fishing effort. These birds ranged across the South Atlantic from 50°W to 15°E with most (97%) daytime satellite fixes between latitudes 30°S and 45°S. Considerable fishing effort occurred within the same latitudes. Although there was no correlation between their at-sea distributions, there was a broad overlap between birds and fishing effort. Estimated bycatch rates for Tristan albatross and other Diomedea species in the South Atlantic, and the spatio-temporal overlap between birds and hooks, yield a predicted annual mortality of 471-554 birds, sufficient to cause population decreases of 3.6-4.3% per year. An index of bird × hook interactions (proportional density of birds multiplied by number of hooks by decadal period for each 5° square of longitude and latitude) indicated that 47% of annual interactions occurred in areas around Gough Island, and 11% and 15% of interactions in areas of the west and east Atlantic, respectively. There were also within seasonal differences in the key areas of overlap. The fishing fleets of Taiwan and Japan are likely to be responsible for most interactions based upon the reported magnitude of effort expended in the South Atlantic by these fleets. Ensuring that licensed fishing vessels within the Tristan da Cunha Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) operate using best-practise mitigation measures and with fisheries observer programs, could reduce the potential bycatch mortality of breeding Tristan albatrosses in this region by nearly one third. Thorough implementation of international agreements is required in areas of the high seas where most remaining interactions are predicted to occur.     

Assessing the impact of fisheries, climate and disease on the dynamics of the Indian yellow-nosed Albatross

Many seabird populations are currently decreasing, especially albatrosses for which the primary threat is recognised to be mortality in fisheries. Introduced predators, climate change and other factors such as diseases can also have large impacts on seabirds. Here, we assessed the relative effect of three potential threats: climate, fisheries and diseases on the demography of an endangered marine predator and modelled its population dynamics to project its size under different scenarios. We based our study on a long-term monitoring of a colony of individually marked Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses at Amsterdam Island, subtropical Indian Ocean, that has declined during the past twenty years. We found no evidence for an impact of legal tuna longlining on demographic parameters. Hatching success was lower during El Niño years but survival (0.902 ± 0.011) was not affected by climatic factors. Avian cholera caused high chick mortality (0.808 ± 0.181) which in turn probably triggered the high emigration rate (0.038 ± 0.011) through dispersal of failed breeders. This colony has a high risk of extinction. However, the rest of the population at Amsterdam Island seemingly not affected to the same extent, declined but stabilised since 1998. Matrix models indicated that lowered adult survival and the very low breeding success, resulting in low recruitment, have both contributed to the decline of the yellow-nosed albatross colony until the mid-1990s, but that more recent decline was primarily caused by low fledging success. Our results highlight that potential threats such as fisheries, diseases or climate have to be considered simultaneously to disentangle their roles when assessing the conservation status of a marine predator species.     

An interview-based approach to assess marine mammal and sea turtle captures in artisanal fisheries

Recent case studies have highlighted high bycatch mortality of sea turtles and marine mammals in artisanal fisheries, but in most countries there are few data on artisanal fishing effort, catch, or bycatch. With artisanal fisheries comprising >95% of the world’s fishermen, this knowledge gap presents a major challenge to threatened species conservation and sustainable fisheries initiatives. We report on results from an intensive pilot study to evaluate whether interview surveys can be effective in assessing fishing effort and threatened species bycatch. Fisheries and bycatch data from interviews with >6100 fishermen in seven developing countries were collected in <1 year for approximately USD $47,000, indicating that this approach may rapidly yield coarse-level information over large areas at low cost. This effort provided the first fisheries characterizations for many areas and revealed the widespread nature of high bycatch in artisanal fisheries. Challenges to study design and implementation prevented quantitative estimation or spatial comparisons of bycatch during this pilot research phase, but results suggested that annual sea turtle bycatch may number at least in the low thousands of individuals per country. Annual odontocete bycatch may number at least in the low hundreds per country. Sirenian bycatch occurred in all study areas but was frequent only in West Africa. We discuss lessons learned from this survey effort and present a revised protocol for future interview-based bycatch assessments.     

Post-breeding season distribution of black-footed and Laysan albatrosses satellite-tagged in Alaska: Inter-specific differences in spatial overlap with North Pacific fisheries

We integrated satellite-tracking data from black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes; n = 7) and Laysan albatrosses captured in Alaska (Phoebastria immutabilis; n = 18) with data on fishing effort and distribution from commercial fisheries in the North Pacific in order to assess potential risk from bycatch. Albatrosses were satellite-tagged at-sea in the Central Aleutian Islands, Alaska, and tracked during the post-breeding season, July-October 2005 and 2006. In Alaskan waters, fishing effort occurred almost exclusively within continental shelf and slope waters. Potential fishery interaction for black-footed albatrosses, which most often frequented shelf-slope waters, was greatest with sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) longline and pot fisheries and with the Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepsis) longline fishery. In contrast, Laysan albatrosses spent as much time over oceanic waters beyond the continental shelf and slope, thereby overlapping less with fisheries in Alaska than black-footed albatrosses. Regionally, Laysan albatrosses had the greatest potential fishery interaction with the Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius) trawl fishery in the Western Aleutian Islands and the sablefish pot fishery in the Central Aleutian Islands. Black-footed albatrosses ranged further beyond Alaskan waters than Laysan albatrosses, overlapping west coast Canada fisheries and pelagic longline fisheries in the subarctic transition domain; Laysan albatrosses remained north of these pelagic fisheries. Due to inter-specific differences in oceanic distribution and habitat use, the overlap of fisheries with the post-breeding distribution of black-footed albatrosses is greater than that for Laysan albatrosses, highlighting inter-specific differences in potential vulnerability to bycatch and risk of population-level impacts from fisheries.     

The impact of pelagic longline fishing on the flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes in Eastern Australia

The flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) is a medium-sized seabird (ca. 700 g) that is incidentally killed during longline fishing operations. We examined the levels of bycatch in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and developed a model to examine the impact of this fishery on the eastern Australian population of flesh-footed shearwaters, which breeds at only one site, Lord Howe Island. Observed bycatch rates for flesh-footed shearwaters were 0.378 birds/1000 hooks for night sets, and 0.945 birds/1000 hooks for day sets. The mean number of birds killed from 1998 to 2002 was estimated to be 1794-4486 birds per year, with the estimated total killed over this period ranging from 8972 to 18,490 birds. Models incorporating both density-independent and density-dependent scenarios were applied to levels of bycatch representative of that observed in the fishery. Density-independent scenarios showed that fishing mortality levels caused declines in the majority of simulated populations. In contrast, density-dependent scenarios produced populations that were more resilient to fishing mortalities. Although some modelling scenarios led to population growth, under most stochastic simulations median population halving and quasi-extinction times were less than 55 and 120 years, respectively. We conclude that the level of bycatch observed in the fishery is most likely unsustainable and threatens the survival of the Lord Howe Island population. This situation can be improved only with the development and implementation of mitigation measures that will halt or greatly reduce the level of bycatch currently observed. Improved knowledge on a range of demographic parameters for the species, combined with a clearer idea of the at-sea distribution of breeding and non-breeding shearwaters, will greatly assist in improving understanding and the management of this population.     

Demography and conservation of the Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena

The Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena is the third rarest albatross species, with a breeding population of around 1500 pairs almost totally restricted to Gough Island in the Tristan da Cunha group, central South Atlantic. During January 2000, the entire breeding population of Gough was surveyed for the first time since 1956, and 2400 incubating pairs were counted. An analysis of the areas that are likely to have been surveyed most accurately in the past suggests that the population has decreased by around 28% over 46 years. The number of large chicks counted over three successive seasons (1999-2001) was highly variable (range 318-1129). The average count over this period (705 chicks) is less than counts made in 1979 (792) and 1982 (798). A total of 656 chicks were counted in September 2001, giving an island breeding success of just 27.3%. However, breeding success varied considerably in different areas of the island, ranging from 17.6 to 68.0%. During the 2001 season most breeding failures were of large chicks, and over 4 years where data were available, 75% of breeding failures occurred during the chick period. Predation by introduced house mice Mus musculus is the most likely cause of chick mortality. In a small study population, birds began breeding at an average age of 9.7 years and annual adult survival from 1985 to 2001 was 92.6% (SE=1.6%). Both breeding success and adult survival estimates are low in comparison with other Diomedea species and population modelling predicts a population decreasing at an annual rate of 2.9-5.3%. Further research is needed urgently to assess whether breeding success is typical, and to confirm that mouse predation is the cause of chick mortality. The low productivity of this species will compound the negative impacts of longline fishing mortality, which are likely to be reducing adult and juvenile survival.     

Bycatch in gillnet fisheries - An overlooked threat to waterbird populations

Bird mortality in fishing gear is a global conservation issue and it is recognised that bycatch in industrial longline and trawl fisheries threatens several seabird species. Little is known however about the effects of bycatch in small-scale gillnet fisheries on bird populations. Here we review 30 studies reporting bird bycatch in coastal gillnet fisheries in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea region in order to assess the magnitude of this problem and potential effects on bird populations. All species of diving birds that occur in the study region, including divers (loons), grebes, sea ducks, diving ducks, auks and cormorants, have been reported as dying in fishing nets. The cumulative bycatch estimate extracted from several localized studies providing such information, suggests that about 90,000 birds die in fishing nets annually, a number that is almost certainly a substantial underestimate. We conclude that it is likely that between 100,000 and 200,000 waterbirds are killed per year. Geographic and temporal patterns of bycatch generally matched species distribution and periods of presence. Also, bycatch rates varied depending on species’ foraging technique and were influenced by net parameters and fishing depth. To evaluate effects of additive mortality on bird populations, we applied the Potential Biological Removal (PBR) concept to three species with the most extensive bycatch information. Agreeing with PBR assumptions we conclude that bycatch is a matter of concern for at least two of the three assessed species. We suggest that bycatch research in Europe and beyond should aim at unification of principles for bycatch assessment, setting new standards for the monitoring of waterbird populations so that vital rates and mortality data are recorded, and implementing quantifiable criteria for evaluating effects of fisheries bycatch.     

Use of a population model to assess the impact of longline fishing on wandering albatross Diomedea exulans populations

An age-structured model of a wandering albatross Diomedea exulans population is developed to stimulate population trends over time, using demographic parameters from the population at Possession Island, Crozets, during 1968–1986. The simulation results portray a population decreasing at a rate of 2·29% per year, which concurs with global population trends. Sensitivity analyses of model parameters indicate that both adult and juvenile mortality are contributing to the decrease. Wandering albatross mortality is presumed to have increased as a result of deaths caused by longline fishing vessels; such deaths are likely to be relatively more frequent among young, naive birds. The model is used to investigate the potential impacts of new longline fisheries such as that for Patagonian toothfish Dissostichus eleginoides in Antarctica. Assuming longline fishing operations affect juveniles more than adults, there is a time lag of 5–10 years before further decreases in population numbers are reflected in the breeding population. Also, because wandering albatrosses are long-lived, population growth rates take approximately 30–50 years to stabilize after a perturbation. Consequently, caution must be exercised when interpreting population trends; short-term (<20 year) estimates may not provide good indications of long-term trends.     

Dispersal of breeding, adult male Phocarctos hookeri: Implications for disease transmission, population management and species recovery

Dispersal impacts on a range of population parameters making it a key piece of information in species conservation. Despite its importance, dispersal is poorly characterized for many species: pinnipeds are no exception. Understanding dispersal patterns of the New Zealand sea lion Phocarctos hookeri is crucial in the conservation management of the species as its recovery to a non-threatened status hinges on range recolonisation. In this study, we examined the movements of breeding adult male New Zealand sea lions within and following the breeding season of the 2002/03 austral summer using a novel multi colony approach. Based on resightings of 202 individually identifiable adult males, we found (1) a previously unappreciated, high level of dispersal by adult territorial males between breeding colonies during the pupping period and (2) that breeding males disperse to the extremes of the species’ range at the end of female oestrous. Our findings are contrary to the current paradigm of otariid breeding behaviour, which is believed to consist of prolonged, uninterrupted male territoriality based on intense male-male competition and sustained fasting. Adult male dispersal between colonies and across the species range has important implications for adult males as vectors of disease in three recent epizootics, species management and species recovery via recolonisation as males are apparently remaining part of a localized, vulnerable breeding population.     

Understanding and addressing seabird bycatch in Alaska demersal longline fisheries

The incidental catch of seabirds in longline fisheries is a global conservation concern. In Alaska, annual seabird bycatch in demersal longline fisheries ranged between 10,300 and 26,300 birds (1995–2001). We explore the relationship between four categories of potential forcing factors (temporal, spatial, environmental, and fisheries-related) and seabird bycatch rates in Alaska demersal longline fisheries to provide practical management alternatives that could significantly reduce seabird bycatch.Separate generalized linear or additive models (GLM or GAM, respectively) were created for several combinations of seabird group, fishery and large geographic region. Across nearly all models, “vessel” was the most influential factor explaining seabird bycatch rate variation. Rather than a single variable, vessel is an amalgam of unmeasured forcing factors many of which could not be separated out in this data set (e.g., longline sink rate, vessel setting speed, line deployment location relative to propeller direction). A separate vessel-specific analysis also supported the multivariate results that performance of an individual vessel is overwhelmingly important (i.e., some vessels have consistently high or low bycatch rates from year to year). Therefore, vessel-specific performance is a critical management option.The effects of temporal (annual, month, and breeding phenology) and spatial variables were also moderately influential on seabird bycatch rates. Our results suggest that seasonal adjustments in the Alaska longline fishery have potential for overall bycatch reductions, but vague seabird management objectives could have huge unintended and undesirable consequences when implementing temporal adjustments. Other variables (environmental and other fishing-related factors) were frequently significant but contributed a small amount to overall explained deviance.Based on this study, we conclude that a vessel-specific management approach would be the most effective and efficient means to reduce seabird bycatch in Alaska.     

Estimating the ability of birds to sustain additional human-caused mortalities using a simple decision rule and allometric relationships

Many bird species are subject to human-caused mortality, either through direct harvest (e.g. game birds) or through incidental mortalities (e.g. fisheries-related bycatch of seabirds, impact with vehicles, wind turbines, or power lines). In order to assess the impact of additional mortalities on birds, both the number of birds killed and their ability to sustain those deaths must be estimated. Niel and Lebreton [Niel, C., Lebreton, J.-D., 2005. Using demographic invariants to detect overharvested bird populations from incomplete data. Conservation Biology 19, 826-835] applied a simple decision rule [Wade, P.R., 1998. Calculating limits to the allowable human-caused mortality of cetaceans and pinnipeds. Marine Mammal Science 14, 1-37] to estimate the level of additional human-caused mortality or potential biological removal (PBR) that can be sustained for bird species given only (1) estimates of the population size, adult survival, and age at first breeding, and (2) the current population status and management goals. We provide guidelines for appropriate use of the method and case studies comparing results from this method to other approaches. Particular focus is placed on applying the method to Procellariiformes.PBR limits may then be set without a population model and when monitoring levels are minimal, and in a computationally straightforward manner. While this approach has many advantages, there are limitations. The PBR rule was initially developed for cetaceans and pinnipeds and there have been no adaptations for the unique biology of birds which may need further consideration. Additionally, because this is a simplifying method that ignores differences in life stages, it may not be appropriate for very small populations or for those listed as ‘critically endangered’, and further work is needed for situations where mortalities have large gender or age bias.     

Female biased mortality caused by anthropogenic nest loss contributes to population decline and adult sex ratio of a meadow bird

Meadow breeding birds such as the whinchat Saxicola rubetra have been declining due to increased farming intensity. In modern grassland management, the first mowing and the bird’s breeding cycle coincide, causing high nest destruction rates and low productivity of grassland bird populations. However, it is virtually unknown whether the mowing process directly affects adult survival by accidentally killing incubating females. We studied adult survival of an Alpine whinchat population during two breeding seasons using either colour-ringing or radio-tracking of 71 adults. Assessing territories, mowing phenology and nest destruction from 1988 to 2007 allowed changes in the factors associated with female mowing mortality to be estimated. Adult survival over 5-day-periods was Φ = 0.986, but during the period of mowing female survival was strongly reduced (Φ = 0.946). As a result, 80.6% of the males, but only 68.4% of the females survived the breeding season. Mowing undoubtedly killed two of 20 radio-tagged females when they were laying or incubating. In the 20-year period, an increasing proportion of nests were destroyed before the chicks hatched and this change was associated with an increased distortion of the adult sex ratio. Modelling the population growth rate showed that including the additional effect of mowing on female mortality resulted in a 1.7 times faster local population decline. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the extinction of whinchat populations in the lowlands of central Europe was caused not only by habitat degradation and low productivity, but also by increased man-made female mortality.     

An Integrated Population Model From Constant Effort Bird-Ringing Data

Data from annual bird-ringing programs, in which catch effort is standardized, are routinely used to index abundance, productivity, and adult survival. Efficient models have been developed for each. Such monitoring schemes, based on ringing across a number of sites, are perhaps unique in providing this combination of demographic information and make the data particularly amenable to an integrated approach to population modeling. We develop a Bayesian approach and a deterministic population model uniting abundance, productivity, and survival. The method is applied to sedge warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus data from the British Trust for Ornithology’s Constant Effort Sites scheme. The possibility of “transient” birds needs to be incorporated within this analysis. We demonstrate how current methodology can efficiently be extended to use additional data from multiple within year recaptures when controlling for transience. Supplemental materials for this article are available online.     

Modelling mammalian extinction and forecasting recovery: koalas at Iluka (NSW, Australia)

This study investigated the recent demise of a koala population at Iluka in eastern Australia and demonstrates the potential role of population viability analysis (PVA) in the recovery and management of similar small populations. Information about the Iluka population was reconstructed from various sources, including community knowledge, wildlife carer data, and from a radiotracking program. Modelling scenarios were constructed to identify which factors may be critical to the survival of the Iluka population and which management options could provide the most effective means of its recovery. The model suggested that even substantial improvements in mortality and fertility alone do not prevent the modelled population declining towards extinction. Rebuilding of the koala population is likely to require guaranteed regular immigration of animals of both sexes in conjunction with considerable improvements in population mortality and fertility. This highlights the importance of the metapopulation for recruitment, an outcome that was not expected prior to modelling. These modelling outcomes suggest that the management of small, local populations of koalas will need a concerted management effort focusing on multiple causes of population change. Local management actions, such as reducing road deaths and managing habitat and fire, must be accompanied by knowledge of the larger geographical population.