Comparative water snake ecology: conservation of mobile animals that use temporally dynamic resources

Obtaining information on movement and spatial patterns of animals and understanding the factors that shape their movements about the landscape are critical steps in designing conservation strategies. We conducted a comparative radiotelemetry study of two snake species, the northern water snake, Nerodia sipedon sipedon, and the imperiled copperbelly water snake, Nerodia erythrogaster neglecta, in northwest Ohio and southern Michigan to assess differences in movement patterns, spatial ecology, and resource use. N. e. neglecta moved distances (53.3 ± 7.1 m/day and 4809 ± 603 m/year) over twice as far as N. s. sipedon (25.6 ± 2.7 m/day and 2244 ± 228 m/year), and used areas nearly four times larger (15.8 ± 2.7 ha) than N. s. sipedon (4.0 ± 0.9 ha). When wetlands were widely dispersed in the landscape, N. e. neglecta moved longer distances and used larger areas, whereas spatial and movement patterns in N. s. sipedon were unaffected by wetland spatial distribution. N. e. neglecta’s long movements and large area use are likely related to its use of variable resources such as ephemeral wetlands and anuran prey. N. s. sipedon used more permanent wetlands and preyed more generally on fish and anurans. Habitat alterations that change the spatial distribution of wetlands in the landscape, such as the loss of small isolated wetlands, have likely increased energetic costs and mortality rates for N. e. neglecta. Conservation strategies for vagile wetland animals that use spatially and temporally variable resources over broad spatial scales should focus on protecting and restoring large areas with numerous, heterogeneous wetlands.     

Core terrestrial habitat for conservation of local populations of salamanders and wood frogs in agricultural landscapes

Pond-breeding amphibians require aquatic and terrestrial habitats to complete their lifecycles, and preservation of both habitats is necessary for maintaining local populations. Current wetland regulations focus primarily on aquatic habitats, and criteria to define critical upland habitats and regulations to protect them are often ambiguous or lacking. We examined the association between the presence of seven pond-breeding amphibian species and the landscape composition surrounding 54 wetlands located within the Till Plains and the Glaciated Plateau ecoregions of Ohio, USA. We quantified landscape composition within 200 m of the wetland (“core terrestrial zone”) and the area extending from 200 m to 1 km from the wetland (“broader landscape context zone”). We constructed binary logistic regression models for each species, and evaluated them using Akaike Information Criterion. Presence of spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum), Jefferson's salamander complex (A. jeffersonianum) and smallmouth salamanders (A. texanum) was positively associated with the amount of forest within the core zone. Presence of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) was positively associated with the amount of forest within the core zone and the amount of forest within the broader landscape context zone. Presence of tiger salamanders (A. tigrinum tigrinum) was negatively associated with the cumulative length of paved roads within 1 km of the site, and presence of red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus v. viridescens) was negatively associated with the average linear distance to the five nearest wetlands. Overall salamander diversity was positively associated with the amount of forest within the core zone, and negatively associated with the presence of predatory fish and cumulative length of paved roads within 1 km of the site. Our results confirm the strong association between the structure of surrounding upland areas and amphibian diversity at breeding ponds, and stress the importance of preserving core terrestrial habitat around wetlands for maintaining amphibian diversity.     

Heterogeneous wetland complexes, buffer zones, and travel corridors: Landscape management for freshwater reptiles

While the importance of nearby terrestrial habitats is gaining recognition in contemporary wetland management strategies, it is rarely recognized that different wetlands are often diverse in their functions of meeting the annual or life-cycle requirements of many species, and that migration between these wetlands is also critical. Using radio-telemetry, we examined terrestrial habitat use and movements of 53 eastern long-necked turtles (Chelodina longicollis) in an area of southeast Australia characterized by spatially diverse and temporally variable wetlands. Male and female C. longicollis exhibited a high degree of dependence on terrestrial habitat, the majority (95%) of individuals using sites within 375 m of the wetland. Turtles also associated with more than one wetland, using permanent lakes during droughts and moving en masse to nearby temporary wetlands after flooding. Turtles used 2.4 ± 0.1 (range = 1-5) wetlands separated by 427 ± 62 (range = 40-1470) m and moved between these wetlands 2.6 ± 0.3 (range = 0-12) times over the course of a year. A literature review revealed that several species of reptiles from diverse taxonomic groups move between wetlands separated by a mean minimum and maximum distance of 499-1518 m. A high proportion of studies attributed movements to seasonal migrations (55%) and periodic drought (37%). In such cases we argue that the different wetlands offer complimentary resources and that managing wetlands as isolated units, even with generous terrestrial buffer zones, would not likely conserve core habitats needed to maintain local abundance or persistence of populations over the long term. Core management units should instead reflect heterogeneous groups of wetlands together with terrestrial buffer zones and travel corridors between wetlands.     

Identifying road mortality threat at multiple spatial scales for semi-aquatic turtles

Prioritizing sites for localized mitigation measures, and forecasting the effect of interventions on an endangered population, requires an understanding of the spatial scales at which threat processes operate. Road mortality is among the greatest threats to semi-terrestrial freshwater turtles due to the group’s life-history traits. Declining throughout much of their range, spotted (Clemmys guttata) and Blanding’s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) are exposed to high road densities and traffic volumes in the northeastern United States. We examine the distribution of roadkill risk for spotted and Blanding’s turtles at three spatial scales. Tortuosity during upland movements was used to predict road-crossing locations at the single-movement scale. A gravity model of wetland-to-wetland interactions was then developed to identify road mortality hot spots at a broader road segment scale. Finally, road-crossing risk was assessed at the scale of focal areas that support distinct populations, using a population viability analysis to evaluate the consequences of road mortality on resident populations. The observed spatial variability of road mortality risk was high for single road crossing movements, limiting the effectiveness of static mitigation measures conducted at this scale. At the broader road segment scale, road mortality hotspots were evident. The demographic risk associated with roads varied widely among discrete populations, with probabilities of extinction over 100-year projections reaching 5.1% for spotted turtles, and 58.8% for Blanding’s turtles. We conclude that conservation interventions are most likely to be effective in mitigating the effects of road mortality when implemented at the road segment and population scales.     

Protecting more than the wetland: The importance of biased sex ratios and habitat segregation for conservation of the Hine’s emerald dragonfly, Somatochlora hineana Williamson

Within species habitat use may depend on age, season or sex of an individual. The distribution of males and females may vary both temporally and spatially due to differences in the costs of reproduction and the distribution of critical resources. Conservation of a species requires knowledge of the habitat use of both sexes in order to predict the population size and protect all habitats that a species requires. Adult dragonfly populations often have highly male-biased sex ratios at the breeding habitat. This bias has been attributed to females using alternative habitats to avoid male harassment, or to high female mortality. We monitored adult Hine’s emerald dragonfly (Somatochlora hineana Williamson) populations, in breeding and non-breeding habitats in Door County, Wisconsin and found significant differences in habitat use between males and females. Males primarily used wetland habitats, while females primarily used dry meadows and marginal breeding habitats, only coming into wetlands to lay-eggs or find mates. We assessed food resources in the different habitats and found that high quality insect prey (primarily adult Diptera) were more available in the wetland habitat, indicating that these areas were likely a more productive foraging area for adult dragonflies. The fact that females appear to avoid the wetland habitat is consistent with the hypothesis that male harassment alters female distribution patterns. Consideration of the patterns of habitat use by S. hineana indicates the need to develop a broader understanding of the importance of non-wetland areas in the conservation of wetland species.     

The value of bat-boxes in the conservation of Pipistrellus pygmaeus in wetland rice paddies

Wetlands with rice paddies are key habitats in the conservation of biodiversity in the Mediterranean Region and are potentially suitable habitats for foraging bats, since they provide food (insects) and drinking places; nevertheless, many wetlands lack natural roosting sites. A bat-box program designed to ascertain bat-box preferences was initiated in 1999 in the Ebro Delta (NE Spain), one of the most important wetlands in Europe. A total of 69 bat-boxes of two types (single and double compartment) were placed on three supports (trees, houses, and posts) facing east or west. Pipistrellus pygmaeus occupancy rates and the number of individuals per box were monitored on 16 occasions from July 2000 to February 2004. Bat-box preferences were only detected during the breeding season. Bat abundance was higher in east-facing boxes, in double-compartment boxes, and in boxes placed on posts and houses. Boxes on natural supports (trees) were avoided. Bat-box occupancy rates were higher during the breeding season (95.6%, spring-summer) due to the formation of maternity colonies. The number of individuals in bat-boxes during the breeding season increased as the study period progressed (from summer 2000 to summer 2003), suggesting a high degree of acceptance by maternity colonies of these alternative locations. Occupancy rates observed were the highest ever reported in bat-box scientific literature. This study highlights the role of bat-box programs as useful alternative management tools for the conservation of bat populations in highly productive wetland habitats where few natural roost sites are available.     

Comparative demography of a rare species in Florida scrub and road habitats

Anthropogenic habitats can offer opportunities for expansion of rare species. The federally listed herb Hypericum cumulicola is virtually restricted to natural gaps within fire-maintained Florida scrub, but also occurs within and along sandy roads traversing scrub. To test the hypothesis that sandy roads provide suitable habitat for H. cumulicola, we compared the demographic performance of scrub and road populations at the Lake Wales Ridge State Forest and Archbold Biological Station in south-central Florida. Twice a year in February and August 1997-2006, we assessed recruitment and survival; annually in August we also measured maximum height and estimated reproductive output of tagged individuals. Scrub population dynamics were more stable than road populations. Recruitment increased with rainfall in scrub populations, but not always in road populations. Compared with scrub populations, road populations were weedier, with more variable life spans, earlier flowering, and higher fecundity. Germination rates did not differ between individuals from different habitats, but varied depending on simulated weather conditions. The weedier life history may reflect a divergent selective environment (and perhaps an evolutionary and ecological trap). Alternatively, adaptive plasticity in H. cumulicola may allow the species to maintain populations in anthropogenic habitats that can serve as refugia for fire-suppressed scrub populations.     

Species-specific barrier effects of a motorway on the habitat use of two threatened forest-living bat species

It is generally recognized that roads can adversely affect local animal populations but little is known how roads affect bats. In particular, no study compared the response of bats that differ in foraging ecology to motorways that cut through the breeding habitat. As bats are key species in conservation, such data are urgently needed for designing management plans. Using radio-telemetry, mist netting, and mark-recapture data we investigated the effects of a motorway with heavy traffic on the habitat use of two threatened forest-living bats. We compared barbastelle bats (Barbastella barbastellus), which forage in open space, to Bechstein’s bats (Myotis bechsteinii), which glean prey from the vegetation. Five of six radio-tracked barbastelle bats crossed the motorway during foraging and roost switching, flying through underpasses and directly over the motorway. In contrast, only three of 34 radio-tracked Bechstein’s bats crossed the motorway during foraging, all three using an underpass. Bechstein’s bats, unlike barbastelle bats, never crossed the motorway during roost switching. Moreover, only in Bechstein’s bats individuals foraging close to the motorway had smaller foraging areas than individuals foraging further away, whereas other forest edges had no such effect. Our data show that motorways can restrict habitat accessibility for bats but the effect seems to depend on the species’ foraging ecology and wing morphology. We suggest that motorways have stronger barrier effects on bats that forage close to surfaces than on bats that forage in open space, and discuss the implications of our findings for bat conservation during road construction.     

Life in the suburbs: Behavior and survival of a freshwater turtle in response to drought and urbanization

Urbanization fundamentally alters the abiotic and biotic components of landscapes, presenting wildlife with serious challenges to which they must respond in order to avoid excess mortality from urban dangers. In this study, we used radio-telemetry to examine the behavior and survivorship of an Australian freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, in a suburban environment compared to a control group on an adjacent nature reserve. We expected turtles in the suburbs to be less mobile, but the suburban environment did not inhibit the ability of turtles to traverse large areas and make frequent movements among several different wetlands. In fact, suburban turtles were more vagile, moving distances twice as far as those on the nature reserves. Turtles on the nature reserve responded to dropping water levels during drought by estivating for several months in sheltered woodland micro-habitats. Suburban turtles did not estivate terrestrially, in part because their water bodies experienced dampened water level fluctuations and retained water during drought, though the relative unavailability of suitable estivation sites and perceived threats could also account for their avoidance of extended forays into the terrestrial environment. Annual survival rate was 95.3% in the reserves compared to 87.6% in the suburbs, but this 7.7% decrease in survival from road mortality was not significant in our survivorship models. The continued ability of suburban turtles to remain vagile without suffering from high mortality rates is likely a product of the availability of vegetated drainage lines and under-road “box” culverts that allow turtles to travel safely throughout the suburban landscape.     

Landscape context mediates influence of local food abundance on wetland use by wintering shorebirds in an agricultural valley

While it is widely understood that local abundance of benthic invertebrates can greatly influence the distribution and abundance of wetland birds, no studies have examined if wetland landscape context can mediate this relationship. We studied the influence of wetland food abundance and landscape context on use of agricultural wetlands by wintering dunlin (Calidris alpina) and killdeer (Charadrius vociferus) in the Willamette Valley of Oregon, USA, over two winters (1999-2000, 2000-2001) of differing rainfall and subsequent habitat distribution. We monitored bird use (frequency of occurrence and abundance) at a sample of wetlands differing in local food abundance (density and biomass) and landscape context [adjacent shorebird habitat (defined as ha of wet habitat with less than 50% vegetative cover and within a 2-km radius) and nearest neighbor distance]. We evaluated predictive models for bird use using linear regression and the Cp criterion to select the most parsimonious model. During the dry winter (2000-2001), dunlin exhibited greater use of sites with higher invertebrate density and biomass but also with more adjacent shorebird habitat and closest to a wetland neighbor. However, neither landscape context nor food abundance were important predictors of dunlin use during the wet winter (1999-2000). Use of sites by killdeer was unrelated to either local food abundance or landscape context measures during both winters. Our findings contribute to a growing recognition of the importance of landscape structure to wetland birds and highlight a number of implications for the spatial planning and enhancement of wetlands using a landscape approach.     

The occurrence of primary burrowing crayfish in terrestrial habitat

A researcher’s perception of a target species’ landscape strongly influences the design of habitat studies conducted at broad spatial scales. Consequently, researcher-dependent perceptions may misguide conservation efforts. Although the life histories of some crayfish (i.e., primary burrowers) are centered on a fossorial existence independent of surface water, all North American crayfish are viewed in an aquatic context. This paradigm restricts the range of habitats that are typically sampled and managed for crayfish conservation. This study used presence/absence of the primary burrower Distocambarus crockeri at 137 locations within the Long Cane Ranger District of the Sumter National Forest, South Carolina, USA, to model the habitat association of the species across a GIS-based landscape. Logistic regression indicated that D. crockeri presence was most strongly associated with a terrestrial habitat defined by a set of morphologically similar soils located along ridge tops. Furthermore, the species was negatively associated with aquatic habitats such as streams and floodplains. The results indicate that D. crockeri is a terrestrial habitat specialist and should be modeled and managed at the landscape as a terrestrial organism. When viewed as a subset of the total United States cambarid fauna, primary burrowers are disproportionately imperiled. Primary burrowers comprise only 15% of the total crayfish fauna, while they account for 32% of those crayfish ranked critically imperiled. Habitat loss and an aquatic bias that restricted sampling to aquatic and semi-aquatic habitats might explain the group’s disproportionate imperilment.     

Beaver (Castor canadensis) mitigate the effects of climate on the area of open water in boreal wetlands in western Canada

Shallow open water wetlands provide critical habitat for numerous species, yet they have become increasingly vulnerable to drought and warming temperatures and are often reduced in size and depth or disappear during drought. We examined how temperature, precipitation and beaver (Castor canadensis) activity influenced the area of open water in wetlands over a 54-year period in the mixed-wood boreal region of east-central Alberta, Canada. This entire glacial landscape with intermittently connected drainage patterns and shallow wetland lakes with few streams lost all beaver in the 19th century, with beaver returning to the study area in 1954. We assessed the area of open water in wetlands using 12 aerial photo mosaics from 1948 to 2002, which covered wet and dry periods, when beaver were absent on the landscape to a time when they had become well established. The number of active beaver lodges explained over 80% of the variability in the area of open water during that period. Temperature, precipitation and climatic variables were much less important than beaver in maintaining open water areas. In addition, during wet and dry years, the presence of beaver was associated with a 9-fold increase in open water area when compared to a period when beaver were absent from those same sites. Thus, beaver have a dramatic influence on the creation and maintenance of wetlands even during extreme drought. Given the important role of beaver in wetland preservation and in light of a drying climate in this region, their removal should be considered a wetland disturbance that should be avoided.     

Are roads and railroads barriers to bumblebee movement in a temperate suburban conservation area?

We investigated how habitat fragmentation affects the movement of marked bumblebees between plant patches in a temperate conservation area in metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts. Our study was conducted on populations of sweet pepperbush (Clethra alnifolia L. f.) separated by a road and natural woodland, and buttonbush (Cephalanthus occidentalis L.) separated by a railroad. Bumblebees showed high site fidelity and only rarely crossed roads or railroads. When bees captured at one sweet pepperbush population were moved across a road to a new sweet pepperbush population and released, they returned to their original site, some within 20 min of their capture. When all inflorescences were removed from one sweet pepperbush patch, most bees moved to another sweet pepperbush population on the same side of the road. The results show that while bumblebees have the ability to cross a road and railroad, these human structures may restrict bumblebee movement and act to fragment plant populations because of the innate site fidelity displayed by foraging bees. Moreover, marked bees were almost never observed to move between populations unless they were displaced, or forced to seek additional forage sites.     

Assessing critical habitat: Evaluating the relative contribution of habitats to population persistence

A principal challenge of species conservation is to identify the specific habitats that are essential for long-term persistence or recovery of imperiled species. However, many commonly used approaches to identify important habitats do not provide direct insight into the contribution of those habitats to population persistence. To assess how habitats contribute to overall population viability and characterize their relative importance, a spatially-explicit population viability model was used to integrate a species occurrence model with habitat quality and demographic information to simulate the population dynamics of the Ord’s kangaroo rat (Dipodomys ordii) in Alberta, Canada. Long-term productivity (births-deaths) in each patch was simulated and iterative patch removal experiments were conducted to generate estimates of the relative contribution of habitat types to overall population viability. Our results indicated that natural dune habitats are crucial for population viability, while disturbed/human-created habitats make a minor contribution to population persistence. The results also suggest that the habitats currently available to Ord’s kangaroo rats in Alberta are unlikely to support long-term persistence. Our approach was useful for identifying habitats that did not contribute to population viability. A large proportion of habitat (39%) represented sinks and their removal increased estimated population viability. The integration of population dynamics with habitat quality and occurrence data can be invaluable when assessing critical habitat, particularly in regions with variable habitat quality. Approaches that do not incorporate population dynamics may undermine conservation efforts by under- or over-estimating the value of habitats, erroneously protecting sink habitats, or failing to prioritize key source habitats.     

Current trends in conservation education in Japan

Conservation education (CE) is an important component of environmental education. Its goal is to teach the theory and practice of preservation and restoration of biodiversity affected by human activities so that people can increase their awareness of conservation issues and change their attitudes and behavior to promote environmental conservation.This paper describes two successful case studies to highlight trends in CE in Japan. One case is a project implemented to create “agricultural wetlands” that resulted in the establishment of a Ramsar Convention site comprised of a restored wetland and its adjacent rice paddy in a rural area near Sendai City in northern Japan. Rice paddy fields are a major component of Satoyama, which are traditional agricultural ecosystems in Japan and occupy 40% of the undeveloped landscape in Japan (Ministry of the Environment Government of Japan, 2007. Third National Biodiversity Strategy of Japan. Ministry of the Environment Government of Japan, Tokyo). Restoration of Satoyama and wetlands by local citizens is a key component of CE practices in Japan, where practical, hands-on, community-based learning is important. The second CE project, geared toward university students and citizens in Yokohama, restored degraded dragonfly ponds and created butterfly biotope in the second largest city in Japan. Restoration of habitat that is centered around highly visible, popular species such as dragonflies and butterflies also benefits other, less prominent species that share these habitats, yet allows residents to easily monitor the benefits of the project.     

Widespread occurrence of an emerging pathogen in amphibian communities of the Venezuelan Andes

Many recent amphibian declines have been associated with chytridiomycosis, a cutaneous disease caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, but increasing evidence suggests that this pathogen may coexist with some species without causing declines. In the Venezuelan Andes, the disappearance of three anuran species during the late eighties was attributed to B. dendrobatidis. Recently, this pathogen was found to be prevalent in this region on the introduced American bullfrog, Lithobates catesbeianus. As a first step toward assessing the risk of amphibian communities to B. dendrobatidis in this region, we conducted a broad survey across multiple habitat types and an altitudinal gradient spanning over 2000 m. We diagnosed 649 frogs from 17 species using real time and conventional PCR assays, and recorded relevant abiotic characteristics of host habitats. Infection was detected in 10 native species of pond, stream and terrestrial habitats from 80-2600 m, representing nine new host records. L. catesbeianus was the most important reservoir with 79.9% of individuals infected and an average of 2299 zoospores. Among native frogs, Dendropsophus meridensis, an endangered species sympatric with L. catesbeianus, showed the highest infection prevalence and mean zoospore load (26.7%; 2749 zoospores). We did not detect clinical signs of disease in infected hosts; however, species such as D. meridensis may be at risk if environmental stress exacerbates vulnerability or pathogen loads. While surveillance is an effective strategy to identify highly exposed species and habitats, we need to understand species-specific responses to B. dendrobatidis to stratify risk in amphibian communities.     

Effects of increased salinity and an introduced predator on lowland amphibians in Southern China: Species identity matters

Approximately 30% of amphibian species are threatened due to a variety of factors affecting their habitats and physiology, yet contributions that interactions among factors make to population declines are not well-explored. Two factors, introduced mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) and increased salinity, may coincide in lowland habitats used by breeding amphibians. Mosquitofish have been introduced worldwide and can be significant predators of amphibian larvae. Salinization of wetlands is an increasing problem globally due to (1) application of road deicing salts in temperate regions, (2) irrigation practices associated with intensive agriculture, and (3) saltwater intrusion due to sea-level rise. We investigated the effects of mosquitofish (G. affinis) and increasing salinity on five species of lowland wetland-breeding amphibians from southern China. We exposed anuran hatchlings to four salinity levels and two fish treatments and all combinations of the two factors in a series of experiments. Four of the species were susceptible to predation by mosquitofish, two were sensitive to increased salinity at concentrations >6% seawater, and one was tolerant of both increased salinity and mosquitofish. We found no interaction between the predator and increased salinity. Salinization and mosquitofish represent significant threats to lowland amphibians in this region and, coupled with the ongoing loss and degradation of lowland wetlands, portend a bleak future for lowland amphibian populations in the region.     

Effects of agricultural landscape and pesticides on parasitism in native bullfrogs

Native amphibian populations are shrinking worldwide, and both parasitic infections and environmental stress from agriculture have been implicated. We investigated the principal hypothesis that environmental by-products of agricultural activity mediate parasitism in native frogs. Bullfrogs were collected from wetlands with variable landscape disturbance and water quality and examined for helminth parasites. We predicted that pesticide pollution and landscape development would be significant factors shaping the parasite communities and populations. Parasite diversity and species richness were lower in wetlands impacted by both pesticides and land use. Two parasite groups, direct life-cycle nematodes and echinostomes, were common in polluted habitats, potentially increasing frog pathology and mortality risk. In areas with agricultural landscape and reduced forest cover, parasite diversity and species richness were low, perhaps because of less parasite transmission from birds and mammals. This result suggests that land development limits terrestrial vertebrate access to wetlands. Our results indicate that parasite abundance and community structure in wetlands are influenced by factors operating locally within the wetland and more broadly in the surrounding landscape. We suggest that parasite communities in amphibians are effective indicators of ecosystem health and animal biodiversity, and thus useful tools for conservation biology.     

Nesting ground abandonment by the maleo (Macrocephalon maleo) in North Sulawesi: Identifying conservation priorities for Indonesia’s endemic megapode

The maleo (Macrocephalon maleo) is an endemic bird of Sulawesi that lays eggs in communal nesting grounds incubated by solar or geothermal sources. In recent years, maleo nesting grounds have become increasingly vulnerable to threats associated with the growing human population of the island. Consequently, the maleo has become one of the most imperiled bird species in Indonesia and is classified as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. We report on the 2004 status of maleo nesting grounds in North Sulawesi focusing on the Bogani Landscape, the region in and around Bogani Nani Wartabone National Park, where the nesting grounds are concentrated. We compare our results to those of a similar study in 1990-1991, examining changes in nesting ground status in relation to habitat and land use factors such as protection status, geographic position (coastal or inland), and distance to forest, human settlements, and roads. Nesting grounds were more likely to be abandoned if they were: (a) in coastal areas; (b) near settlements and roads; and (c) not in protected areas. Binary logistic regression identified connectivity between nesting grounds and forest in 1991 as the best predictor of whether or not sites were abandoned by maleo over the next 12 years; a loss of local continuity between nesting grounds and forest is associated with a sixfold increase in the probability of abandonment. Access to forest was itself highly correlated with other variables examined, and thus represented a composite index of threats to maleo. The application of this model to the 2004 data identified six active nesting grounds that are at high risk of abandonment in the near future, seven at intermediate risk, and five at low risk. These results offer conservationists priorities for future maleo conservation.