Modelling hunting strategies for the conservation of wild rabbit populations

Recently, European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations have undergone a sharp decline that may be exacerbated by hunting. We investigate the effects of the timing of hunting on the conservation of wild rabbit using a model for rabbit population dynamics. Scenarios with different hunting rates and age strategies were simulated for different population qualities. We interviewed hunters to ascertain the degree to which they would accept a change in the timing of hunting. We also investigated the hunting pressure applied by hunters and its relationship with rabbit abundance. Modelling results indicate that the current hunting season has the greatest impact on rabbit abundance. Hunting in late spring optimises hunting extraction while conserving rabbit populations. When the rabbit population quality is low the effects of age strategies and the timing of hunting are less important than the effect of the hunting rate applied. Almost half the hunters would agree to policy changes. More than 75% of hunters implemented self-imposed hunting restrictions to improve rabbit populations, that were more frequently applied in high rabbit abundance areas. Therefore, changing the timing of hunting and increasing the participation of hunters in low abundance areas could optimise both the exploitation and the conservation of wild rabbit populations in southwestern Europe.     

Conservation of European wild rabbit populations when hunting is age and sex selective

Several predator species at risk of extinction in Southwestern Europe are dependent on the population density of European wild rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus. Rabbit populations in the region, however, have recently undergone dramatic decreases in population density, which may be exacerbated by hunting. Current hunting policies set the autumn-winter season, just before the start of rabbit reproduction, as the main hunting season, and previous theoretical models have estimated that the current hunting season may have the greatest negative impact on rabbit abundance and should be changed. We utilised a model for rabbit population dynamics to determine the effects of the timing of hunting during two seasons, summer and autumn, on the tendency of rabbit populations to be over-harvested and on the number of rabbits hunted. This model included field estimates of age- and sex-selection biases of hunting by shotgun. Scenarios with different hunting rates and sex- and age-selection probabilities of hunting were simulated for populations with different turnover levels and with and without compensatory mortality mechanisms. Field estimations showed that hunting in summer was juvenile-biased whereas autumn hunting was juvenile- and male-biased. In contrast to previous findings, our modelling results suggested that hunting in autumn may be the most conservative option for harvesting of rabbit populations, since these populations were more prone to be over-harvested during the summer. The differences between the two seasons in number of rabbits hunted were dependent on population dynamics and hunting sex- and age-selection probabilities. Our findings suggest that altering of current hunting policies would not optimise the exploitation or conservation of wild rabbit populations, but that the latter may be improved by some changes in the timing of hunting.     

Wild rabbit restocking for predator conservation in Spain

The decline of rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations in Mediterranean Spain has been shown to be one of the main threats to rabbit-specialist predators such as the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardina) and the Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti), two species which are in serious danger of extinction. Consequently, corrective measures such as increasing rabbit populations by restocking have been carried out to help the recovery of predator populations. In order to determine the general applicability of rabbit restocking for predator conservation, we performed three experimental restockings and evaluated their success in relation to season, habitat quality and the number of animals introduced. Rabbits were released either in large or small numbers in all four seasons of the year, and in habitat types defined as `poor' or `rich' according to the food availability for rabbits. For each restocking we evaluated rabbit survival, degree of residency and expected population increase. As a rule, the highest restocking success occurred whenever smaller number of rabbits were released in the richest quality habitat. Restocking during the breeding season was less successful than in other seasons. Problems concerning intraspecific competition, reproductive failure and diseases are discussed.     

Plight of the bumble bee: Pathogen spillover from commercial to wild populations

Pathogen spread or ‘spillover’ can occur when heavily infected, domestic hosts interact with closely-related wildlife populations. Commercially-produced bumble bees used in greenhouse pollination often have higher levels of various pathogens than wild bumble bees. These pathogens may spread to wild bees when commercial bees escape from greenhouses and interact with their wild counterparts at nearby flowers. We examined the prevalence of four pathogens in wild bumble bee populations at locations near and distant to commercial greenhouses in southern Ontario, Canada. Bumble bees collected near commercial greenhouses were more frequently infected by those pathogens capable of being transmitted at flowers (Crithidia bombi and Nosema bombi) than bees collected at sites away from greenhouses. We argue that the spillover of pathogens from commercial to wild bees is the most likely cause of this pattern and we discuss the implications of such spillover for bumble bee conservation.     

The use of camera traps for estimating tiger and leopard populations in the high altitude mountains of Bhutan

We used camera traps in combination with capture-recapture data analysis to provide the first reliable density estimates for tigers and leopards from the high altitude and rugged terrain in Bhutan’s Jigme Singye Wangchuck National Park. Fifty days of camera trapping in each of five study zones collapsed into two trapping blocks, resulted in a sampling effort of 4050 trap days. Camera trapping yielded 17 tiger photos (14 left flanked and 3 right flanked) and 48 leopard photos (25 left flanked and 23 right flanked). Using photos of these left flank, the closed heterogeneous Jackknife Model M_h was the best fit for the capture history data. A capture probability () of 0.04 was obtained for both tigers and leopards, thus generating population size (N) of 8 tigers (SE = 2.12) and 16 leopards (SE = 2.91) with densities of 0.52 tiger 100 km⁻² and 1.04 leopard 100 km⁻². Photographic evidence indicated that tigers and leopards did not overlap in their spatial use of space. Tigers preferred less disturbed areas located further away from settlements, while leopards appeared to be more resilient to disturbances in so far as they were found nearer to human settlements. Camera trapping using a capture-recapture framework was an effective tool for assessing population sizes for tiger and leopard in low density areas such as Bhutan.     

Suppressiveness of 18 composts against 7 pathosystems: Variability in pathogen response

Compost is often reported as a substrate that is able to suppress soilborne plant pathogens, but suppression varies according to the type of compost and pathosystem. Reports often deal with a single pathogen while in reality crops are attacked by multiple plant pathogens. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the disease suppression ability of a wide range of composts for a range of plant pathogens. This study was conducted by a consortium of researchers from several European countries. Composts originated from different countries and source materials including green and yard waste, straw, bark, biowaste and municipal sewage. Suppressiveness of compost-amended (20% vol./vol.) peat-based potting soil was determined against Verticillium dahliae on eggplant, Rhizoctonia solani on cauliflower, Phytophthora nicotianae on tomato, Phytophthora cinnamomi on lupin and Cylindrocladium spathiphylli on Spathiphyllum sp., and of compost-amended loamy soil (20% vol./vol.) against R. solani on Pinus sylvestris and Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. lini on flax. From the 120 bioassays involving 18 composts and 7 pathosystems, significant disease suppression was found in 54% of the cases while only 3% of the cases showed significant disease enhancement. Pathogens were affected differently by the composts. In general, prediction of disease suppression was better when parameters derived from the compost mixes were used rather than those derived from the pure composts. Regression analyses of disease suppression of the individual pathogens with parameters of compost-amended peat-based mixes revealed the following groupings: (1) competition-sensitive: F. oxysporum and R. solani/cauliflower; (2) rhizosphere-affected: V. dahliae; (3) pH-related: P. nicotianae; and (4) specific/unknown: R. solani/pine, P. cinnamomi and C. spathiphylli. It was concluded that application of compost has in general a positive or no effect on disease suppression, and only rarely a disease stimulating effect.     

The paradox of keystone species persecuted as pests: A call for the conservation of abundant small mammals in their native range

Small mammals, such as European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), plateau pikas (Ochotona curzoniae) and prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.), traditionally have been perceived as pests and targeted for control within their native ranges, where they perform essential ecosystem roles and are considered keystone species. These species can reach high densities, and have been subjected to eradication campaigns because of their putative negative impact on natural habitats and agriculture and their competition with livestock for forage. Eradication programmes have been a main factor causing sharp declines of these species in their natural ranges. Paradoxically, they are keystone species where they are abundant enough to be perceived as pests. The term “pest” is usually a social perception that is rarely supported by scientific data, whereas there is considerable scientific evidence of the key ecological roles played by these species. We call for the conservation of these species and present a conceptual model regarding the management of their populations. Where they occur at high numbers, and hence their effects on biodiversity are still of crucial importance, the persecution of these species should be avoided and their natural habitats preserved. In areas with high conservation value, but where these species occur at low densities, management efforts should aim to increase their density. In areas of high commercial value, managers ideally should consider changing prioritization of the area to high conservation value by purchasing the land or obtaining conservation easements. In situations with high commercial value and demonstrable low conservation concern, small mammals could be reduced humanely.     

Modelling populations of long-lived birds of prey for conservation: A study of imperial eagles (Aquila heliaca) in Kazakhstan

Eagle populations worldwide are in decline and their demography is generally poorly understood. We use novel sensitivity analysis of stochastic simulation models to analyse the demography of the worlds highest-density and longest-studied population of eastern imperial eagles (Aquila heliaca), at the Naurzum National Nature Reserve in Kazakhstan. Single variable perturbation (a simple elasticity-type analysis) showed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival but provided no information on how interactions between parameters may influence population growth. Multiple-variable perturbations (a more comprehensive elasticity-type analysis) suggested that population growth is relatively more sensitive to adult survival than is indicated by single-variable perturbation but also that when adult survival is within a biologically reasonable range, other parameters are still highly consequential to model outputs. For Naurzum’s imperial eagles, and for other structured populations of vertebrates, effective conservation and management likely requires an approach that addresses the importance of simultaneous variation in multiple vital rates including both survivorship and reproductive output.     

Size, symbiotic effectiveness and genetic diversity of field pea rhizobia (Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. viciae) populations in South Australian soils

Field pea (Pisum sativum L.) is widely grown in South Australia (SA), often without inoculation with commercial rhizobia. To establish if symbiotic factors are limiting the growth of field pea we examined the size, symbiotic effectiveness and diversity of populations of field pea rhizobia (Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. viciae) that have become naturalised in South Australian soils and nodulate many pea crops. Most probable number plant infection tests on 33 soils showed that R. l. bv. viciae populations ranged from undetectable (six soils) to 32×10³ rhizobia g⁻¹ of dry soil. Twenty-four of the 33 soils contained more than 100 rhizobia g⁻¹ soil. Three of the six soils in which no R. l. bv. viciae were detected had not grown a host legume (field pea, faba bean, vetch or lentil). For soils that had grown a host legume, there was no correlation between the size of R. l. bv. viciae populations and either the time since a host legume had been grown or any measured soil factor (pH, inorganic N and organic C). In glasshouse experiments, inoculation of the field pea cultivar Parafield with the commercial Rhizobium strain SU303 resulted in a highly effective symbiosis. The SU303 treatment produced as much shoot dry weight as the mineral N treatment and more than 2.9 times the shoot dry weight of the uninoculated treatment. Twenty-two of the 33 naturalised populations of rhizobia (applied to pea plants as soil suspensions) produced prompt and abundant nodulation. These symbioses were generally effective at N₂ fixation, with shoot dry weight ranging from 98% (soil 21) down to 61% (soil 30) of the SU303 treatment, the least effective population of rhizobia still producing nearly double the growth of the uninoculated treatment. Low shoot dry weights resulting from most of the remaining soil treatments were associated with delayed or erratic nodulation caused by low numbers of rhizobia. Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) fingerprinting of 70 rhizobial isolates recovered from five of the 33 soils (14 isolates from each soil) showed that naturalised populations were composed of multiple (5-9) strain types. There was little evidence of strain dominance, with a single strain type occupying more than 30% of trap host nodules in only two of the five populations. Cluster analysis of RAPD PCR banding patterns showed that strain types in naturalised populations were not closely related to the current commercial inoculant strain for field pea (SU303, ≥75% dissimilarity), six previous field pea inoculant strains (≥55% dissimilarity) or a former commercial inoculant strain for faba bean (WSM1274, ≥66% dissimilarity). Two of the most closely related strain types (≤15% dissimilarity) were found at widely separate locations in SA and may have potential as commercial inoculant strains. Given the size and diversity of the naturalised pea rhizobia populations in SA soils and their relative effectiveness, it is unlikely that inoculation with a commercial strain of rhizobia will improve N₂ fixation in field pea crops, unless the number of rhizobia in the soil is very low or absent (e.g. where a legume host has not been previously grown and for three soils from western Eyre Peninsula). The general effectiveness of the pea rhizobia populations also indicates that reduced N₂ fixation is unlikely to be the major cause of the declining field pea yields observed in recent times.     

Phenotypic differentiation in fitness related traits between populations of an extremely rare sunflower: Conservation management of isolated populations

Knowledge of the genetic and demographic consequences of rarity is crucial when evaluating the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on population viability, and for creating management plans in rare plant species. Reduction in population size and in the number of populations can lead to decreased genetic diversity and increased inbreeding. Genetic diversity is often correlated with fitness and is frequently used to identify populations of greatest conservation concern, or those that may be good candidates for ex situ conservation programs. However, an association between these factors is not always clear, and crossing studies evaluating whether there is phenotypic differentiation among populations in fitness related traits can inform managers of suffering populations or good sources for ex situ materials. Crossing studies can also evaluate the potential for genetic rescue to boost fitness in suffering populations. To address these questions, we conducted two generations of controlled crosses between populations of the extremely rare and fragmented sunflower, Helianthus verticillatus. We measured achene viability, germination, survival, and pollen viability (F₁ only) in 176 F₁ and 159 F₂ families. The populations were differentiated with respect to phenotypic fitness measures with one population having significantly lower achene viability and germination. Also, the potential for genetic rescue was observed as gene flow into the less fit population resulted in higher fitness measures in both the F₁ and F₂. Results are discussed with respect to the importance of combining genetic marker data with crosses and the implications for conservation in disjunct populations of rare species.     

Crofting and bumblebee conservation: The impact of land management practices on bumblebee populations in northwest Scotland

The northwest of Scotland is a stronghold for two of the UK’s rarest bumblebee species, Bombus distinguendus and Bombus muscorum. The predominant form of agricultural land management in this region is crofting, a system specific to Scotland in which small agricultural units (crofts) operate rotational cropping and grazing regimes. Crofting is considered to be beneficial to a wide range of flora and fauna. However, currently there is a lack of quantitative evidence to support this view with regard to bumblebee populations. In this study we assessed the effect of land management on the abundance of foraging bumblebees and the availability of bumblebee forage plants across crofts in northwest Scotland. The results of our study show that current crofting practices do not support high densities of foraging bumblebees. Traditional crofting practice was to move livestock to uplands in the summer, but this has been largely abandoned. Summer sheep grazing of lowland pasture had a strong negative impact on bumblebee abundance and forage plant availability throughout the survey period. The use of specific ‘bird and bee’ conservation seed mixes appears to improve forage availability within the crofted landscape, although the number of bees observed remained low. Of the forage plants available, the three most frequently visited species were from the Fabaceae. We therefore conclude that the creation of agri-environment schemes which promote the use of Fabaceae-rich seed mixes and encourage the removal of sheep grazing on lowland areas throughout the summer are essential in order to conserve bumblebee populations within crofted areas.     

Farmer attitudes toward wolves: Implications for the role of predators in managing disease

The potential for disease transmission between wild and domestic animals may interfere with wildlife and habitat conservation on lands surrounding protected areas. Recently, possible transmission of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) from wild ungulates to domestic livestock has affected the Riding Mountain National Park region in Manitoba, Canada. Wolf (Canis lupus) predation on ungulate populations may help lessen the risk of disease transmission to livestock. We conducted an exploratory analysis of causal factors associated with farmer attitudes toward observing wolves on their farms. A survey to 4 220 farms within 50 km of the Park resulted in an adjusted response rate of 25%. We constructed several logistic regression models with factors hypothesized to influence whether farmers agreed with the statement “I enjoy seeing wolves on my land”, and three candidate models received reasonable support. Factors most affecting attitudes were, in order of importance, perceived wolf population size, frequency of seeing wolves, perceived seriousness of wolf damage, distance to Park boundary and number of beef cattle (Bos taurus) owned. The factors least influential on attitudes were education and age. Concern over bovine tuberculosis in wild elk also had minimal influence. Of respondents who perceived the wolf population as “too high”, 60% were extremely concerned about bovine tuberculosis in wild elk. Although the role of wolf predation as a potential natural regulator of disease in wild ungulates might not be widely recognized in many areas, we believe this provides a unique opportunity to re-examine the significance of maintaining viable wolf populations.     

The recent decline of a New Zealand endemic: how and why did populations of Archey's frog Leiopelma archeyi crash over 1996-2001?

Dramatic changes have been documented in New Zealand's vertebrate faunas since human settlement, involving major declines and extinctions, but over recent years few species have declined in numbers so rapidly as the terrestrial Archey's frog Leiopelma archeyi (Anura: Leiopelmatidae). Long-term monitoring over more than 20 years revealed a major population reduction of the species over 1996-2001 and L. archeyi is now classified as Nationally Critical under the New Zealand threat classification system. The decline progressed northwards in the Coromandel ranges, and mostly larger (female) frogs survived. On a 100 m² study plot at Tapu Ridge, annual population estimates averaged 433 frogs (SE ±32) over 1984-1994, declining by 88% to average 53 frogs (SE ±8) over 1996-2002. A mean annual survival rate of 82% for most years declined to 33% over 1994-1997. There is mounting evidence to suggest that disease is the major agent of decline, supported by (1) the rapidity and severity of decline, (2) the progressive (south to north) nature of decline, and (3) finding frogs with chytriodiomycosis from Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis at the time of decline. Surprisingly, sympatric populations of the semi-aquatic Leiopelma hochstetteri have not declined dramatically, nor has a western population of L. archeyi at Whareorino, despite chytridiomycosis occurring in some frogs there. Sustaining and restoring populations of L. archeyi in New Zealand raises major challenges for conservation management.     

The fragrance (fgr) gene in natural populations of wild rice (Oryza rufipogon Griff.)

The Asian cultivated rice, Oryza sativa L. (spp. indica or japonica), is assumed to have originated from one or both of the two wild Asian species, O. rufipogon Griff. and O. nivara Sharma and Shastry. They occur throughout the monsoon Asia and west Oceania. Fragrance is the most important trait among the domesticated characters of basmati and jasmine rice of Asia. The gene for fragrance in a scented rice shows the presence of a mutated portion (i.e., an eight base pair deletion in exon 7) that result in its loss of fragrance. In the present study, 229 wild rice O. rufipogon accessions were genotyped for this locus using a PCR assay. The wild rice species contained the mutated allele of the fgr gene at a low frequencies of 0.23. The surveyed populations were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. This observation supports the hypothesis that the allele for fragrance was already present in the wild rice, and that this trait appeared in scented rice cultivars because of selection by the farmers of genotypes possessing this character during the process of domestication.     

Sustainable forest use in Brazilian extractive reserves: Natural regeneration of Brazil nut in exploited populations

The emergence of Brazilian extractive reserves reinforced the notion that sustainable forest use could play a central role in conservation. Brazil nut is considered a model non-timber product for promoting conservation through use. Demographic studies, however, have demonstrated differential impacts of nut harvest on Brazil nut population structure. Comparing three populations with different forest use histories, degrees of road access, and recent levels of nut harvest, we asked: (1) Are they exhibiting regeneration failure? and (2) Are seedling/sapling densities explained by adult Brazil nut structure, fruit fate and/or overall forest structure? We installed four 9-ha plots in each site to census Brazil nut trees ?10 cm dbh, and within each plot, 36 subplots (25 × 25 m each) to quantify regeneration, overall forest structure, and open and closed fruit counts. Approximately 29-55% of fruits was unharvested, and more than 90% of these was opened by scatterhoarding dispersers. Population structure approximated a reverse-J size class distribution, with seedling densities varying from 3.2 to 5.8 individuals ha⁻¹. We conclude that within the current harvest context, regeneration is sufficient for population persistence in our sites, at least over the medium term. The socioeconomics of sustainably managing Brazil nut is the greater challenge, involving interlinked competitive land uses, nut quality, and substantial increases in local income from harvest. Some of these challenges are being addressed in Brazil, Bolivia and Peru, providing hope that this cornerstone extractive species will continue to play a prominent role in the ecological and economic landscape of Amazonia.     

Patterns of roost use by bats in a neotropical savanna: implications for conservation

Neotropic bats comprise a highly species-rich group and are considered important regulators of complex ecological processes. Resource partitioning of roosts and food is considered a key element in shaping bat communities. In this paper we examine the roosting patterns of 10 bat species belonging to a neotropical bat community in a Bolivian savanna. Roosts were more common in open woodlands than in forest islands and human settlements. In open woodlands, Tabebuia heptaphylla comprised the largest proportion of roosting trees, whereas in forest islands, Gallesia integrifolia was the most important roosting tree for phyllostomid bats. By comparing active roosts with control holes in Tabebuia heptaphylla, we found that roost site selection by Noctilio albiventris was mainly based on tree diameter and inner width of the cavities. The earlier results are discussed in view of resource partitioning within savanna bat communities and their practical conservation.     

Suppression of root-knot disease by Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 in tomato: importance of bacterial secondary metabolite, 2,4-diacetylpholoroglucinol

The antimicrobial metabolites 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (2,4-DAPG) and pyoluteorin contribute to the ability of Pseudomonas fluorescens strain CHA0 to control plant diseases caused by soil-borne pathogens. P. fluorescens strain CHA0 and its derivatives CHA89 (antibiotics-deficient) and CHA0/pME3424 (antibiotics overproducing) were investigated as potential biocontrol agents against Meloidogyne javanica the root-knot nematode. Exposure of root-knot nematode to culture filtrates of P. fluorescens under in vitro conditions significantly reduced egg hatch and caused substantial mortality of M. javanica juveniles. Nutrient broth yeast extract (NBY) medium amended with 2% (w/v) glucose or 1 mM EDTA markedly repressed hatch inhibition activity of the strain CHA0 but not that of CHA0/pME3424 or CHA89. On the other hand, NBY medium amended with glucose significantly enhanced nematicidal activity of the strain CHA0/pME3424. Neither glucose nor EDTA had an influence on the nematicidal activity of the strains CHA0 and CHA89. Under in vitro conditions, antibiotic overproducing strain CHA0/pME3424 and CHA0 expressed phl‘-’lacZ reporter gene but strain CHA89 did not. Expression of the reporter gene reflects actual production of DAPG. In general, CHA0/pME3424 expressed reporter gene to a greater extent compared to its wild type counterpart CHA0. Regardless of the bacterial strains, reporter gene expression was markedly enhanced when NBY medium was amended with glucose but EDTA had no such effect. A positive correlation between the degree of juvenile mortality and extent of phl‘-’lacZ reporter gene expression was also observed in vitro. Strain CHA0 produced zones of 4-6 mm on MM medium containing gelatin while strain CHA0/pME3424 and CHA89 did not. When MM medium containing gelatin was amended with 2% glucose of 1 mM EDTA size of haloes produced by the strain CHA0 reduced to 2 mm. Under glasshouse conditions aqueous cell suspension of the strains CHA0 or CHA0/pME3424 at various inoculum levels (10⁷, 10⁸ or 10⁹ cfu ml⁻¹) significantly reduced root-knot development. CHA89 caused significant reduction in galling when applied at 10⁹ cfu ml⁻¹. To better understand the mechanism of nematode suppression, split root bioassay was performed. Split-root experiments, that guarantee a spatial separation of inducing agent and a challenging pathogen, showed that soil treatment of one half of the root system with cell suspension of CHA0 or CHA0/pME3424 resulted in a significant systemic induced resistance leading to reduction of M. javanica infection of tomato roots in the non-baterized nematode treated half. The results clearly suggest that the antibiotic 2,4-DAPG from P. fluorescens CHA0 act as the inducing agents of systemic resistance in tomato roots. Populations of CHA0 and its derivatives declined progressively by 10-fold between first and fourth harvests (0-21 days after inoculation). However, bacterial populations increased at final harvest (28 days after application).     

Dogs on the catwalk: Modelling re-introduction and translocation of endangered wild dogs in South Africa

In South Africa, a plan was launched to manage separate sub-populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in several small, geographically isolated conservation areas as a single meta-population. This intensive management approach involves the re-introduction of wild dogs into suitable conservation areas and periodic translocations among them. Despite the initial failures and high costs associated with wild dog re-introductions and translocations, there is no predictive framework available to quantify which management protocol is the most efficient. We therefore developed an individual-based model of wild dog population and pack dynamics, which accounts for the wild dogs’ social complexity. The model appeared to capture the essential characteristics of a real wild dog population from Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa and to be relatively robust to parameter uncertainty, suggesting that the model is valid enough for addressing management problems. The model enabled us to quantify a critical initial number of packs (two) and individuals per pack (six) necessary for a re-introduced wild dog population to establish itself in the release area. We also found a practically feasible intervention regime at which a re-introduced wild dog population had the best chance of persistence: intermittently adding packs (at least every 6 years) and harvesting disperser groups (as often as every 4 years) for translocation to other release sites, without threatening the small source population. This study demonstrates that individual-based models can be a powerful decision-support tool in re-introduction planning and provides insight into how populations made up of social groups have dynamics, and ultimately persistence, determined by individual behaviour.     

Ecology and use of arctic fox Alopex lagopus dens in Norway: tradition overtaken by interspecific competition?

Arctic fox Alopex lagopus dens in Norway are mostly large and well-defined structures of great age. Examinations of these dens have been used in surveys of the breeding and population status of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia. In this study, dens all over north Norway and in some parts of south Norway were surveyed (n=214), and several aspects of den characteristics, localisation and use were recorded. Red fox Vulpes vulpes dens were also recorded whenever found, including red fox use of arctic fox dens (total n=211). Most of the arctic fox dens were of the “classic” type dug out in sandy soil (n=210). The average number (±1 SD) of open entrances (at least half open) was 27.4±19.0, and the average size was 363.1±288.7 m². Regional variation was found in both these measurements, as well as in two variables classifying the vegetation at the den. However, no consistent south-north gradient was found, although the most southern and the most northern regions were extremes in several respects. A positive correlation was found between den size and the number of entrances, as well as between these two variables and the two vegetation variables. For each arctic fox den, height above the tree line, distance to the tree line, distance between arctic fox dens, distance to the nearest red fox den, distance to a main road and distance to other human activity were estimated. Regional variation was found in all these variables, but no consistent south-north gradient. Again, the most southern region deviated most. There were large differences in the proportion of dens used by arctic foxes between the nine regions, with one region outstanding in its production of arctic fox litters and paucity of red foxes. The proportion sum of arctic fox entrances to sum of red fox entrances reliably, but not perfectly, identified the best arctic fox regions. Arctic fox dens that were known to have produced litters at least once during 1980-2001 had about twice as many entrances as dens without pups, were 32% larger and had a more lush vegetation. They were also situated further from a red fox den. Distance to red fox dens and height above the tree line were the most important factors regarding arctic fox use of dens. Thus, the red fox was identified as a threat to the arctic fox population.     

Modelling the effect of El Niño on the persistence of small populations: The Galápagos penguin as a case study

Small populations are vulnerable to long-term declines, even where short-term censuses indicate increasing trends in numbers. Census data for the Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) collected between 1970 and 2004 provide evidence that despite year-to-year population increases detected in most of the annual censuses, the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were followed by population declines of more than 60% from which the species has yet to recover. Such large declines raise concerns about the future viability of the species because the frequency and severity of El Niño events are predicted to increase. We used the simulation software VORTEX to evaluate the potential effects of El Niño on the risk of extinction of the Galápagos penguin population and its four constituent subpopulations. Weak and strong El Niño events were treated as catastrophes, with varying frequencies, which simulated past, current and future effects on the penguin population. The “Current El Niño” scenario, based on the frequency of El Niño events recorded in the Galápagos between 1965 and 2004, indicated an approximately 30% probability of extinction within the next 100 years for the penguin population. More ominously, the species may be at a greater risk if the frequency of strong El Niño episodes increases only marginally. A probability of extinction greater than 80% was predicted when the current frequency (5%) of strong El Niño events was doubled (to 10%). The probabilities of extinctions were higher for each subpopulation treated individually, ranging from 34% for Isabela and Fernandina, 64% for Bartolomé-Santiago to 78% for the smallest subpopulation on Floreana. Sensitivity analyses identified survival of penguins during El Niño events and sex ratio as influential parameters. The estimates of extinction risk may be conservative as other threats associated with increased human activities on the islands may further compromise species persistence.