Opportunity costs: Who really pays for conservation?

Designing conservation areas entails costs that, if considered explicitly, can be minimized while still achieving conservation targets. Here we focus on opportunity costs which measure forgone benefits from alternative land uses. Conservation planning studies often use partial estimates of costs, but the extent to which these result in actual efficiencies has not been demonstrated. Our study partitions land costs into three distinct opportunity costs to smallholder agriculture, soybean agriculture and ranching. We demonstrate that opportunity costs to single stakeholder groups can be inaccurate measures of true opportunity costs and can inadvertently shift conservation costs to affect groups of stakeholders disproportionately. Additionally, we examine how spatial correlations between costs as well as target size affect the performance of opportunity costs to single stakeholder groups as surrogate measures of true opportunity costs. We conclude that planning with opportunity costs to single stakeholder groups can result in cost burdens to other groups that could undermine the long-term success of conservation. Thus, an understanding of the spatial distributions of opportunity costs that are disaggregated to groups of stakeholders is necessary to make informed decisions about priority conservation areas.     

Setting conservation targets under budgetary constraints

Target-based spatial prioritization is the default approach in conservation resource allocation. Here, we clarify a poorly known feature of target-based spatial prioritization that may lead to an unbalanced allocation of resources between species or other biodiversity features. Highest per-species resources will be allocated to species occurring in costly and otherwise species-poor locations, whereas smallest per-species resources will be allocated to species that occur in species-rich locations at low-cost areas. Uncertainty in information about processes determining distributions of biodiversity features may lead to uncertainty in target setting. This can be a problem if unnecessarily high targets emerge to consume excessive resources thus detracting from other conservation action. Difficulties might be encountered in particular when there are many features, targets are given simultaneously to multiple different types of biodiversity features, or components of features, or when there are interactions or correlations between features. Consequently, we recommend that the costs of targets for individual features could be evaluated to screen for such targets that consume a disproportionate fraction of available resources. Costs of targets can be evaluated by a variant of the replacement cost technique. We also find that commonly used reserve selection methods, minimum set coverage, maximum coverage, and utility maximization differ significantly in how they treat targets and their costs.     

Effectiveness of protected areas in north-eastern New South Wales: recent trends in six measures

We applied six measures of effectiveness to recent decisions about additional conservation areas in north-eastern New South Wales. Three have been widely used previously: (1) number of conservation areas; (2) total extent of conservation areas; and (3) representativeness (the proportion of natural features such as forest types or animal species represented in conservation areas to some targeted level). The other measures were: (4) efficiency or representation bias (the extent to which some features are protected above target levels at the expense of others that remain poorly protected); (5) relative protection of vulnerable areas within public land (percentage protection of flat, fertile areas relative to that of steep and/or infertile areas); and (6) relative protection of vulnerable areas across all tenures (the correlation between the amount of protection given to features and their vulnerabilities to clearing). We applied the measures in two chronological comparisons: the reserve system in 1994, 1996 and 1997; and before and after the Interim Assessment Process of 1996 which involved negotiations over new reserves and extensive unreserved areas that were temporarily deferred from logging. Over the study period, despite expansion of formal conservation and progress towards quantitative conservation targets, gazetted reserves remained strongly biased to the steep and/or infertile parts of public lands. Both gazetted reserves and areas deferred from logging increased the bias in protection away from forest types most vulnerable to clearing and for which regional conservation targets had already been most compromised. Two major challenges for future conservation decisions in the region are common to conservation planning generally: (1) to focus protection within public tenure on habitats and species most vulnerable to threatening processes such as logging; and (2) to provide more effective conservation management on private lands where loss of native vegetation continues.     

Management costs for small protected areas and economies of scale in habitat conservation

Protected area management must be resourced adequately to achieve its conservation objectives. The variability in management costs across candidate sites for protection therefore should inform conservation planning. For example, when considering whether to accept a donation of a property, a conservation organisation must determine whether an adequate endowment is available to fund future management activities. We examine variation in management costs across 78 small protected areas in the UK that are managed by a conservation NGO, the Yorkshire Wildlife Trust. Management costs exceed acquisition costs when funded on an endowment basis and are not correlated with acquisition costs or with proxy measures for conservation costs commonly relied upon in conservation planning studies. A combination of geographic, ecological and socioeconomic characteristics of sites explains 50% of the variation in management costs. Site area is the most important determinant of management costs, which demonstrate economies of scale; implementing conservation management on an additional hectare adjacent to a larger protected area would incur a lower cost than doing the same adjacent to a smaller site. In evidencing this effect of site area, we avoid problems of spurious correlation that confound previous studies. Protected areas that encompass a greater richness of priority habitats for conservation also require more expensive management. Conservation organisations may have little option but to create small protected areas to conserve biodiversity in highly fragmented landscapes, but the decision to do so should take account of the greater cost burden that small protected areas incur.     

Landscape Zonation, benefit functions and target-based planning: Unifying reserve selection strategies

The most widespread reserve selection strategy is target-based planning, as specified under the framework of systematic conservation planning. Targets are given for the representation levels of biodiversity features, and site selection algorithms are employed to either meet the targets with least cost (the minimum set formulation) or to maximize the number of targets met with a given resource (maximum coverage). Benefit functions are another recent approach to reserve selection. In the benefit function framework the objective is to maximize the value of the reserve network, however value is defined. In one benefit function formulation value is a sum over species-specific values, and species-specific value is an increasing function of representation. This benefit function approach is computationally convenient, but because it allows free tradeoffs between species, it essentially makes the assumption that species are acting as surrogates, or samples from a larger regional species pool. The Zonation algorithm is a recent computational method that produces a hierarchy of conservation priority through the landscape. This hierarchy is produced via iterative removal of selection units (cells) using the criterion of least marginal loss of conservation value to decide which cell to remove next. The first variant of Zonation, here called core-area Zonation, has a characteristic of emphasizing core-areas of all species. Here I separate the Zonation meta-algorithm from the cell removal rule, the definition of marginal loss of conservation value utilized inside the algorithm. I show how additive benefit functions and target-based planning can be implemented into the Zonation framework via the use of particular kinds of cell removal rules. The core-area, additive benefit function and targeting benefit function variants of Zonation have interesting conceptual differences in how they treat and trade off between species in the planning process.     

Prioritizing avian conservation areas for the Yellowstone to Yukon Region of North America

Prioritizing new areas for conservation in the Rocky Mountains of North America is important because the current intensity and scale of human development poses an immediate threat to biodiversity. We identified priority areas for avian biodiversity within a 3200-km corridor from Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming, US to the Yukon in Canada (the Y2Y region). We applied the conservation planning tool, MARXAN, to summarize 21 avian values. MARXAN minimizes the area delineated, while simultaneously incorporating multiple criteria (species richness representation, spatial clustering) and biodiversity targets into a single mappable solution. We prioritized avian biodiversity ‘hotspots’ at continental and ecoprovincial scales based on: (1) avian species richness; and (2) habitat associations of 20 focal species. At the continental scale, the single best solution represented 19% of the Y2Y region; 29% of this solution overlapped with existing protected areas. In northern Y2Y, large contiguous areas with high avian value were concentrated on the western edge of the continental divide. In southern Y2Y, contiguous areas were smaller and more numerous than in the north. In contrast to the majority of studies prioritizing conservation areas, we explored the effect of varying the extent of the target region by analyzing data at the scale of the entire Y2Y region and for eight ecoprovinces separately. We found that (1) large contiguous patches characterized only three ecoprovinces, while for the remaining ecoprovinces, numerous single scattered habitat patches of varying sizes were required to meet conservation goals; and (2) generally, only a small percentage of sites was already protected within the existing protected areas network. Our results are important for conservation planners and resource managers in the Y2Y region for incorporating areas of high conservation value for birds at regional and ecoprovincial scales during conservation project design and adaptive planning.     

Multiple-species conservation planning for European wetlands with different degrees of coordination

Selection and establishment of reserves was often done unplanned and uncoordinated between regions. Systematic conservation planning provides tools to identify optimally located priority areas for conservation. Planning for multiple species promises adequate provision for the needs of a range of threatened species simultaneously. Several studies apply the set-covering problem by minimizing resources for given conservation targets of multiple species. We extend this method by also considering different degrees of coordination in multiple-species conservation planning and representing reserve sizes endogenously. A deterministic, spatially explicit programming model solved with mixed integer programming is used to represent minimum habitat area thresholds for all included biodiversity features. The empirical model application to European wetland species addresses five different scenarios of coordination in conservation planning, including taxonomic, political, and biogeographical coordination of planning. Our approach illustrates and quantifies the efficiency of multi-species conservation activities. We show that maximum coordination in conservation planning enhances area efficiency by 30% compared to no coordination. Furthermore, strong coordination in conservation planning does not only reduce the area requirement, but synergy effects even enable the conservation features to achieve higher conservation objectives. Spatial subdivision of planning, however, leads to highest area requirements and less conservation target achievement.     

The influence of uncertainty on conservation assessments: Australian frogs as a case study

We evaluated the influence of uncertainty, based on variation in expert opinion, on assessment of conservation status of Australian amphibians. We examined relationships between different biological variables and inferred relative extinction risk, the influence of uncertainty on resulting ranks, and regional patterns of extinction risk and uncertainty. Our results were in general agreement with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources but also reveal apparent high extinction risks among some taxa that the IUCN did not classify in any threatened category. These differences were exaggerated when the most conservative status assessments were taken from variation in expert opinion. Our assessments of relative extinction risk were strongly dependent on basic demographic variables, particularly population size, geographic distribution of populations and age at first reproduction. We identified regional hotspots of high relative extinction risk and poor knowledge of amphibians, leading to high uncertainty about the conservation status of species from those areas. Regional clustering of species with high relative extinction risk and high uncertainty may indicate higher levels of relative extinction risk than previously assessed. Our results highlight the influence of uncertainty on interpretation of conservation assessments of organism groups with large knowledge gaps. Uncertainty should be further incorporated into conservation planning as it not only highlights taxa with potentially underestimated extinction risk, but also facilitates identification of knowledge gaps informative of conservation status. Knowledge of regional patterns of extinction risk and uncertainty assists conservation planning through identification of regions of high extinction risk and/or large knowledge gaps.     

Habitat suitability models of saproxylic red-listed boreal forest species in long-term matrix management: Cost-effective measures for multi-species conservation

Understanding of how a large landscape or network of conservation areas and habitats of red-listed species change in time is an important topic when addressing the temporal interplay between protected areas and matrix. We developed models of habitat suitability indices (HSI) for saproxylic red-listed invertebrate and fungal species, accounting for roughly 70% of all red-listed boreal forest species of the study area in eastern Finland. By using a forestry planning program that incorporates various optimisation methods we analysed trade-offs between timber production and amount of habitats of saproxylic red-listed species within a 60-year period. We also produced production possibility frontiers that show how to increase quality of the matrix with least costs. Moreover, we analysed how habitat suitability criteria used in optimisations affect the area of different habitat quality classes.

Our analysis shows that by adopting HSI models in long-term matrix management, it is possible to increase habitats for several red-listed species without substantial losses in timber production. The increase in habitat area is achieved mainly by decreasing the area that is thinned compared to intensive timber production plan. In the long term, this seems to be a novel cost-effective method to increase the quality of the matrix for red-listed saproxylic species. However, the selected optimisation method and the criteria or specification of the management objective for red-listed forest species have a strong effect on results when HSI models are used in conservation planning. Therefore any practical application must be performed with great care.     

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: The otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species.Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HADCM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas.Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter’s potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.     

Assessing the performance of the existing and proposed network of marine protected areas to conserve marine biodiversity in Chile

The growing concern about the profound influence of human activities on marine ecosystems has been the driving force behind the creation of marine reserves in the last few decades. With almost 4200 km of coastline, Chile has not been the exception to this trend. A set of conservation priority sites has recently been proposed by the Chilean government to expand the current marine reserve network. In this study, we used the most comprehensive information currently available on the distribution of 2513 marine species in Chile to assess the efficiency of the existing system of marine protected areas (MPA) and the conservation priority sites identified by the government. Additionally, we evaluated the vulnerability of the reserve network selected with respect to threatening human activities. Our results show that both the existing protected areas and the proposed priority sites are relatively effective at protecting Chilean marine biodiversity. However, the majority of the species that are not represented within the existing or projected MPA network have very restricted distributions and are, therefore, of high conservation concern. To cover all species requires a network of 35 MPAs (46% of the total number of planning units). Many of the sites identified as irreplaceable present conflict with one or more human activities, particularly in the central region of the country. This study emphasizes the need for a systematic conservation planning approach to maximize the representation of species and prioritize those areas where conflicts between marine biodiversity conservation and human activities may occur.     

Systematic landscape restoration using integer programming

In some agricultural regions, reservation of remnant natural lands will not maintain the natural biodiversity and large-scale ecological restoration is required. Geographic planning for restoration is essential to obtain the maximum ecological benefit from the limited resources available for landscape restoration. In this paper, we present a proof-of-concept that implements principles of systematic conservation planning, such as adequacy, representativeness, efficiency and flexibility, within an integer programming framework to identify geographic priorities for landscape restoration in a small catchment in South Australia. Integer programming ensures maximally efficient solutions that meet conservation targets in the form of minimum proportions (30%) and minimum areas (15 ha) of each environment type. However, the optimum solution identifies a system of scattered sites with an inadequate and impractical landscape structure. We propose a system of impedance surfaces that prioritise the spatial location of restoration towards improving landscape structure. Different options for systematic landscape restoration are assessed and the costs of spatial prioritisation of areas is found to be either optimal or very near optimal regardless of the impedances used. Thus, the cost of spatial prioritisation of sites for restoration in the landscape is negligible. We suggest the proposed methodology fits within a broader plan for landscape restoration and natural resource management.     

Designing a network of marine reserves in the Mediterranean Sea with limited socio-economic data

The present study is the first to determine priorities for the location of marine reserves using spatial prioritization software in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. We used biophysical data from visual census surveys on: fish species abundance, presence of various habitat types, and percent coverage of seagrasses and canopy algae. Efficient conservation planning requires spatially explicit information on how proposed management will affect stakeholders, which in this region was very limited. We created novel socio-economic cost indices to account for fisheries and tourists. Our fishing metrics were based on fisher behaviour including information on the location of ports and areas often inaccessible to fishers due to high wind exposure. We developed a cost index for tourism based on the availability of beds for tourists. We examined how the spatial priorities for marine reserves varied using different combinations of these socio-economic cost metrics. We found about 17% of sites were a high priority regardless of which cost metric was used. We also compared, for the first time in the Mediterranean, our results devised using systematic conservation planning approaches with priorities developed by two non-systematic methods, the Natura 2000 proposed marine reserves and sites that local fishers proposed for protection. Only a few sites identified by our approach were the same as those recommended as part of Natura 2000 or the fishers’ proposals. This suggests that much more work is needed to harmonise existing proposals with the principles of efficient systematic conservation planning.     

Conservation priorities for freshwater biodiversity: The Key Biodiversity Area approach refined and tested for continental Africa

Freshwater ecosystems represent one of the most threatened broad habitat types globally. Despite containing around a third of all vertebrates, area-based approaches to conservation planning rarely include freshwater species as an explicit target for conservation. Here we describe and apply a globally applicable methodology comparable to those for other groups (i.e. Important Bird Areas) to identify river and lake catchments that represent, or contain, freshwater Key Biodiversity Areas. We discuss the rationale behind the methodology and propose appropriate definitions and quantitative threshold values for the selection criteria. Thresholds are developed through spatial analysis of species information for four comprehensively assessed freshwater taxonomic groups in continental Africa, comprising 4203 species, as recently assessed for the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species?. To illustrate application of the methodology freshwater Key Biodiversity Areas are identified across continental Africa, and conservation planning software used to prioritise a network of catchments that captures 99% of the total species complement within catchments covering ca. 20% of the total land area. Within these prioritised catchments only 19% of river length falls within existing Protected Areas suggesting that, given the high connectivity within freshwater ecosystems and their dependence upon catchment management for effective conservation, modification or expansion of the protected area network is required to increase effective conservation of freshwater species. By applying this methodology, gaps in the coverage of freshwater species by existing Protected Areas can be identified and used to inform conservation policy and investment to ensure it is inclusive of, and effective for, freshwater biodiversity.     

Uncertainty in coarse conservation assessments hinders the efficient achievement of conservation goals

Conservation planning is sensitive to a number of scale-related issues, such as the spatial extent of the planning area, or the size of units of planning. An extensive literature has reported a decline in efficiency of conservation outputs when planning at small spatial scales or when using large planning units. However, other key issues remain, such as the grain size used to represent the spatial distribution of conservation features. Here, we evaluate the effect of grain size of species distribution data versus size of planning units on a set of performance measures describing efficiency (ratio of area where species are represented/total area needed), rate of commission errors (species erroneously expected to occur), representativeness (proportion of species achieving the target) and a novel measure of overall conservation uncertainty (integrating commission errors and uncertainty in the actual locations where species occur). We compared priority areas for the conservation of freshwater fish in the Daly River basin (northern Australia). Our study demonstrates that the effect of grain size of species distribution data was more important than planning unit size on conservation planning performance, with an increase in commission errors up to 80% and conservation uncertainty over 90% when coarse data were used. This was more pronounced for rare than common species, where the mismatch between coarse representations of biodiversity patterns and the smaller areas of actual occupancy of species was more evident. Special attention should be paid to the high risk of misallocation of limited budgets when planning in heterogeneous or disturbed environments, where biodiversity is patchily distributed, or when planning for conservation of rare species.     

Assessing replacement cost of conservation areas: How does habitat loss influence priorities?

Replacement cost refers to the loss incurred if the ideal set of conservation areas cannot be protected due to compulsory inclusion or exclusion of some area candidates. This cost can be defined either in terms of loss of conservation value or in terms of extra acquisition cost, and it has a clear mathematical definition as a difference between the value of the unconstrained optimal solution and a constrained suboptimal solution. In this work we for the first time show how replacement cost can be calculated in the context of sequential reserve selection, where a reserve network is developed over a longer time period and ongoing habitat loss influences retention and availability of sites. In case of site exclusion, a question that can be asked is, “if a site belonging to the ideal (optimal) solution cannot be obtained, what expected loss in reserve network value does this entail by the end of the planning period given that the rest of the solution is re-organized in the most advantageous manner?” Heuristically, the proposed method achieves the ambit of combining irreplaceability and vulnerability into one score of site importance. We applied replacement cost analysis to conservation prioritization for wood-inhabiting fungi in Norway, identifying factors that influence replacement cost and urgency of site acquisition. Among other things we find that the reliability of loss rate information is important, because the optimal site acquisition order may be strongly influenced by underestimated loss rates.     

Quantitative methods for defining percentage area targets for habitat types in conservation planning

The Earth’s resources are finite, therefore planning for their use requires the definition of broad goals and the formulation of operational targets derived from goals, that enable decisions to be made and success measured. The objective of this study was to review methods for the formulation of percentage conservation targets for the coverage of habitat types within a network of conservation areas. We reviewed the scope and data requirements of these methods and discussed the strengths and limitations of their application. We identified five groups of methods applicable to habitat types that define: (1) fixed percentage targets across all habitats based on species-area relationship, or habitat-specific targets based on (2) species-area relationship, (3) heuristic principles, (4) trade-off of target size with reserved area, or (5) spatially-explicit Population Viability Analysis (PVA) for selected species. No ideal method exists and two factors should guide the choice of a method: the type of biodiversity goal and data availability. Given the lack of perfect biodiversity data, we suggest the use of a composite target based on a combination of methods.     

Replacement cost: A practical measure of site value for cost-effective reserve planning

Conservation needs are often in direct competition with other forms of land-use, and therefore protection of biodiversity must be cost-efficient. While common reserve selection algorithms address this problem, quantitative planning tools often suggest an optimal set of sites that is not necessarily convenient for practical conservation. Besides cost-effective solutions we require flexibility if land-use conflicts are to be effectively resolved. We introduce a novel concept for site value in quantitative reserve planning. Replacement cost refers to the loss in solution value given that the optimal cost-efficient solution cannot be protected and alternative solutions, with particular sites forcibly included or excluded, are needed. This cost can be defined either in terms of loss of biological value or in terms of extra economic cost, and it has clear mathematical definitions in the context of benefit-function-based reserve planning. A main difference with the much-used concept of irreplaceability is that the latter tells about the likelihood of needing a site for achieving a particular conservation target. Instead, replacement cost tells us at what cost (biological or economic) can we exclude (or include) a site from the reserve network. Here, we illustrate the concept with hypothetical examples and show that replacement-cost analysis should prove useful in an interactive planning process, improving our understanding of the importance of a site for cost-efficient conservation.     

Cost-effectiveness of conservation strategies implemented in boreal forests: The area selection process

To protect land from commercial exploitation is a common conservation practice. However, this requires large financial resources and it is therefore important to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different strategies used in the selection of these conservation areas. In this study we compare four strategies and relate the differences in cost-effectiveness to differences in the selection process. We measure conservation benefits both as the amount of three tree structures and as the number of species in three species groups. We also estimate both the information cost associated with selecting conservation areas and the opportunity cost. We found the key habitat strategy to be the over-all most cost-effective. In this strategy, the areas have a flexible size and are selected by the authorities in a national field survey. The least cost-effective strategy was one where the selection was based only on forest classes in a satellite map. Intermediate were the retention group strategy, where small areas are left by the forest owner at harvesting, and the nature reserve strategy, where large areas are selected by the authorities. We emphasize that the differences we found are associated with the selection process and that other aspects, such as long-term survival of species, may rank the strategies differently. We conclude that the cost-effectiveness of a selection strategy depends on the size of the planning area for selection of conservation areas, the size of the conservation areas, the objective of the agent making the selection, and the amount and type of information on which the selection is based.     

Using self-organizing maps to investigate spatial patterns of non-native species

Our ability to demonstrate statistical patterns of invasion by non-native species will determine the success of future management projects. We investigated the suitability of self-organizing maps (SOM, neural network) for patterning habitat invasion by exotic fish species at the regional scale (Southwest France), using a binary dataset of species occurrences. The SOM visualization can be used as an analytical tool to bring out relationships between sample locations and biological variables, but in addition the weight of each species in the output of the SOM can be interpreted as its occurrence probability in various geographic areas. After training the SOM with fish presence/absence data, the k-means algorithm helped to derive three major clusters of sites (headwater, montane, and plain areas). Each cluster was divided into two subsets of sites according to non-native fish, because assemblage compositions delineated different geological areas: Pyrenees Mountains, Massif Central Mountains, and alluvial plain. Occurrence probabilities of species within our study stream system were roughly influenced by river typology, with a higher occurrence probability for most species (i.e. a greater risk) in downstream sections. Conversely, headwater streams at the highest elevations in the study area showed the lowest risk of invasion. Efficient analytical tools such as SOM may thus help to yield explicit schemes that could influence the measures to be taken in the latter phase of conservation plans.