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玉米当季产量预测对农民制定栽培管理方案和政府决策者制定粮食战略都至关重要,作物过程模型与天气预报策略结合实现作物当季产量预测已经被广泛应用,该方法缺少在农户实际生产中的检验。基于河北省曲周县2年(2017~2018年)农户跟踪数据和DSSAT模型,2017、2018年分别使用14个农户数据对当地主栽品种登海605的遗传参数进行校准和验证,通过动态时间规整(DTW)算法检验气象数据时间序列的相似性,筛选出与预测年份气象数据相似度最高的历史年份,使用当季实时天气数据与历史年份数据结合的天气预报策略生成完整的玉米季天气数据,实现当季玉米产量预测。结果表明,校准后的DSSAT-CERES-Maize模型能够准确模拟玉米开花期日期(ARE:2.19%,nRMSE:2.53%)、生物量(ARE:7.55%,nRMSE:9.50%)和产量(ARE:5.70%,nRMSE:6.60%),以DTW算法为基础的天气预报策略与DASST模型结合能够提前30~43 d获得准确的预测产量(±8%)。  相似文献   

3.
The spatial variability in crop yields commonly observed in smallholder farms of sub-Saharan Africa is often caused by gradients of declining soil fertility with increasing distance from the homestead. This heterogeneity means that recommendations based on regional soil surveys are of limited value. The variability in soil qualities within farms must be considered when designing management strategies, and their feasibility analysed by integrating results at the farm livelihood scale. For this purpose, we have developed the model FARMSIM, a dynamic bio-economic model for analysis and exploration of trade-offs in resource and labour allocation in heterogeneous smallholder farms. Focusing on farm-scale strategies, the approach to simulation of soil and crop processes in FARMSIM (the sub-model FIELD) is designed to be simple, but to keep the necessary degree of complexity to capture heterogeneity in resource use efficiencies. To test our approach, the sub-model FIELD was calibrated against chronosequences of woodland clearance in three agroecological zones of Zimbabwe (with soil textures of 3, 10, 35% clay), and used to simulate: (i) the creation of soil fertility gradients, and (ii) different strategies of N, P and manure applications to maize and soyabean rotations in homefields and outfields of smallholder farms on clayey and sandy soils. The results of the simulation of management strategies were tested against on-farm experimental data from Murewa, Zimbabwe. The model produced satisfactory predictions (r2: 0.6–0.9) of long-term changes in soil organic C, of crop responses to N and P and of nutrient use efficiencies across a wide range of yields and different field types. This demonstrated the broad applicability of the model despite the sparse data required for initialisation. However, the model results were less accurate in predicting crop responses to N and P applications in the outfields on sandy soils. Experimental evidence indicated yield limitation by Ca and Zn deficiencies in highly depleted outfields on sandy soils, which were not included mechanistically in the current version of FIELD. Repeated applications of 16 t ha−1 year−1 of manure allowed larger responses to applied N and P after 3 years of experimentation; such a corrective effect of manure was simulated to be due to improved N and P recovery efficiencies in the model. In combination with the experimental data, the simulation results suggested that soil fertility gradients affect nutrient use efficiencies, operating mostly on the efficiencies of nutrient capture rather than conversion. A typology of fields according to the type of management interventions needed is introduced, based on a generic application of FIELD with this parameterisation.  相似文献   

4.
Phytophthora blight (PB), caused by Phytophthora drechsleri f. sp. cajani, is reoccurring as an economically important disease of pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan), especially when excessive rains fall within a short span of time and hot and humid weather persists during the crop season. A few years after the initial reviews of Kannaiyan et al. (1984), the disease was coming to halt. Despite earlier investigations on pathological and physiological characteristics of P. drechsleri f. sp. cajani, the nature of infection process and genetic basis of pathogen variability have not been clearly established. Therefore, information on the biology and survival of the pathogen is needed to devise effective management strategies. Attempts have been made to develop green-house and field screening techniques since three decades ago for identification of host plant resistance. However, only few pigeonpea germplasm and breeding lines belonging to cultivated and wild Cajanus spp. were found tolerant to PB. The recent frequent recurrence of PB epidemics in the major pigeonpea growing areas prioritized the search for higher levels of disease resistance. There is a need to study the biology of the pathogen, epidemiology of the disease and refinement of the resistance screening techniques and develop integrated disease management technology for the disease. In this review, the symptomatology of the disease, biology of pathogen including its variability, epidemiology, sources of resistance, other management options and available information on biochemical and genetic basis of disease resistance have been updated and discussed with the identification of future research priorities.  相似文献   

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《Field Crops Research》2001,73(1):35-46
Net blotch caused by Pyrenophora teres F. teres, is one of the important diseases in Moroccan barley fields. Contributing factors include the lack of adequate disease and crop management. Furthermore when agricultural techniques were recommended without disease control, objectives were seldom reached and resulted in adverse growers’ reaction. To sustain farmers in the Moroccan semi-arid regions and to optimize barley production, we have focused on net blotch epidemiology and the development of adequate disease management approaches. A field experiment, conducted in five locations for two consecutive years, used six cultivars with different levels of susceptibility to net blotch. These cultivars were grown under high, medium and low inoculum levels of the pathogen, and with and without disease control. Hence, a broad range of disease epidemics was generated. All the disease progress curves showed a depression in disease severity at stem elongation. The boost in biomass production coupled with the relationship between initial disease severity and area under the disease progress curve led us to recommend seed treatment and/or seedling resistance as the initial means of disease control. Although statistical differences were measured in disease severity between fungicide treated and inoculated plots during the growing season, biological differences were not substantial until all the cultivars attained boot stage. Because of this, a single application of foliar fungicide is necessary at boot stage, with a second application needed toward the end of ear emergence when weather conditions favor disease development.  相似文献   

6.
The efficient use of crop simulation models is an effective complement to experimental research. Long-term weather data obtained at a specific site are normally required for the application of these crop simulation models to help determine alternate management practices and associated decisions. Stochastic weather generators sometimes are used to complement or substitute historical weather data. The objective of this study was to evaluate the suitability of weather data generated by the weather generators WGEN and SIMMETEO as input for crop simulation models in order to determine the best option(s) among a number of different crop management practices. Five locations across Iran representing different climates were selected. The wheat, maize, and soybean models of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were applied in this study, using 30 years of observed weather data and 90 years of weather data generated by WGEN and SIMMETEO. Simulated grain yield using either observed weather data or weather data generated by WGEN and SIMMETEO in response to various ‘experimental’ factors, e.g., cultivar selection, planting date, planting density, irrigation threshold, and change in precipitation under irrigated and rainfed conditions were compared. The statistical evaluation was based on t, F, and Kolomogrov-Smirnov (K-S) tests. The average of the percentage rejected tests was 20% and the parameter estimation method had no impact on the number of rejected tests. Irrespective of some significant differences between simulated yield based on observed weather data and those based on weather data generated by WGEN and SIMMETEO, a similar conclusion could be drawn about the best cultivar, planting date, plant density and irrigation threshold and response to changes in the amount of precipitation. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that for many crop model applications where only relative estimates or determination of the best management option(s) rather than absolute values are required, weather data generated by either WGEN and SIMMETEO are accurate and sufficient.  相似文献   

7.
In 1994, LINTUL-POTATO was published, a comprehensive model of potato development and growth. The mechanistic model simulated early crop processes (emergence and leaf expansion) and light interception until extinction, through leaf layers. Photosynthesis and respiration in a previous crop growth model—SUCROS—were substituted by a temperature-dependent light use efficiency. Leaf senescence at initial crop stages was simulated by allowing a longevity per daily leaf class formed, and crop senescence started when all daily dry matter production was allocated to the tubers, leaving none for the foliage. The model performed well in, e.g., ideotyping studies. For other studies such as benchmarking production environments, agro-ecological zoning, climatic hazards, climate change, and yield gap analysis, the need was felt to develop from the original LINTUL-POTATO, a derivative LINTUL-POTATO-DSS with fewer equations—reducing the potential sources of error in calculations—and fewer parameters. This reduces the number of input parameters as well as the amount of data required that for many reasons are not available or not reliable. In LINTUL-POTATO-DSS calculating potential yields, initial crop development depends on a fixed temperature sum for ground cover development from 0% at emergence to 100%. Light use efficiency is temperature dependent. Dry matter distribution to the tubers starts at tuber initiation and linearly increases up to a fixed harvest index which is reached at crop end. Crop end is input of the model: it is assumed that the crop cycle determined by maturity matches the length of the available frost-free and or heat-free cropping season. LINTUL-POTATO-DSS includes novel calculations to explore tuber quality characteristics such as tuber size distribution and dry matter concentration depending on crop environment and management.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

Rice (Oryza sariva)-wheat (Triticum aestivum) rotation is the major production system in the Indo-Gangetic plains of South Asia and mid hills and is important for the food security of the region. The productivity and profitability of the rice-wheat system are very low mainly because of inappropriate nutrient input and poor crop management practices. Field experiments were conducted in 21 farmers' fields in Bara and Parsa districts in the Eastern-Gangetic plains of Nepal from May 1999 to April 2002 to evaluate site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) and integrated crop management (ICM) for improving rice-wheat productivity and profitability. Soil nutrient-supplying capacity (based on omission plot method) varied largely among farmers' fields. Rice soil had a higher N, P, and K-supplying capacity (35–76, 8–17, and 63–98 kg ha1, compared with wheat (16–41, 6–12, and 20–104 kg ha1, respectively). Both SSNM and ICM strategies significantly improved the grain yields of rice and wheat. Overall yield increment by ICM over farmers' practice (FP) reached up to 2.3 Mg ha1 (66%) in rice and 2.3 Mg ha1 (87%) in wheat, suggesting that there is a large potential for increasing rice and wheat yields in Nepal. Yield gap 1 (maximum attainable yieldaverage yield in ICM) was 1.3 to 1.4 Mg ha1 for rice and 0.3 to 1.0 Mg ha1 for wheat. While yield gap 2 (maximum attainable yieldaverage yield in FP) ranged from 2.8 to 3.5 Mg ha-1 for rice and 2.3 to 2.8 Mg ha-1 for wheat. Rice N-use efficiencies increased up to 50% and 70% with SSNM and ICM, respectively, over FP. In wheat, N-use efficiency increased up to 46% by ICM over SSNM. The net profit gained by applying ICM over FP was higher in wheat (US$ 217) than in rice (US$ 73). The findings suggest the urgent need to develop an effective program for wider dissemination of ICM technology in the Eastern-Gangetic plains.  相似文献   

9.
茎点霉真菌Phoma adianticola引起的一种茶树新病害   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
对一种引起茶树芽头褐变的病原进行了分离鉴定研究。通过柯赫氏法则,成功分离得到了致病菌株。菌株PDA培养条件下的形态学和rDNA-ITS分子鉴定结果表明,此病原菌为茎点霉属真菌。按照茎点霉属真菌鉴定程序开展了鉴定研究。此菌在OA和MA培养基上培养7 d后,菌落平均直径6.0~6.4 cm;分生孢子器圆球形,具孔口,器外壁光滑或有菌丝附着;分生孢子橄榄球形,无隔,多数具2个游球,大小为4.9~6.3μm×2.1~2.8μm;NaOH颜色反应呈黄绿色。根据上述特征,初步鉴定此病原菌为Phoma adianticola。由P.adianticola引起的茶树芽头褐变可能是茶树的一种新病害。根据此菌侵染后的症状,暂将其表述为茶树褐芽病。  相似文献   

10.
In order to reduce pesticide use in vineyards, we propose a bioeconomic model to evaluate different fungicide treatment strategies. This model estimates the development of the downy mildew Plasmopara viticola for a given year's weather on a grapevine plot, and predicts the damage done, the yield loss, and the resulting partial gross margin, depending on the chosen protection strategy.Grapevine growth and phenology are simulated with the STICS grapevine crop model according to the year's weather; fungal components quantify downy mildew development; damage onto leaves and fruits is characterized as a percent reduction of potential leaf area and yield; the effect of fungicide treatments is simulated as a partial protection against infection; the economic result is calculated at plot level, taking into account simulated yield, local economic conditions and costs of observations and sprayings.The model parameters were estimated using three sets of experimental data from vineyards in the French wine-growing region of Bordeaux. Using these parameter values, the model was used to evaluate the following five protection strategies: 3 systematic fungicide spraying strategies with 2-, 3- or 4-week intervals, the “Mildium” adaptive strategy, which includes field observations and decision rules, and a control untreated strategy. Yield losses and the resulting partial gross margins were calculated for 23 annual weather examples for each strategy and the statistics of these strategies were compared. The adaptive strategy was found to be slightly less protective on average against downy mildew than the 2-week systematic spray strategy. However its low variability ensures sustainability in terms of grower's income, while reducing by one third the number of sprayings. The model hypotheses and simulation results are discussed, in relation to the particular economic context of the “Bordeaux” protected designation of origin with the objective of reducing pesticide use in vineyards.  相似文献   

11.
Two field surveys were conducted during the 2010 and 2011 cropping seasons to determine the distribution and importance of faba bean root rot, Fusarium solani (Mart) Apple and Sacc. in the northeastern highlands of Ethiopia. The associations of the root rot incidence and severity with independent variables was analyzed using a logistic regression model. The associations of disease incidence and severity with biophysical factors were evaluated. The disease incidence and severity varied among soil types, crop management practices and cropping seasons. Disease incidence and percentage severity index were higher in 2010 (44.6%) than 2011 (44.4%) due to the high rainfall in 2010. Cropping season, soil type, land preparation and weed management practices were significantly associated with faba bean root rot incidence and percentage severity index in a multiple-variable model. A root rot incidence of ≤50% and severity of ≤40% showed high probability of association with season, furrow sowing and weed management practice, whereas vertisols, flat sowing, high soil moisture and high weed density had significant contributions to root rot epidemics. In contrast, elevation, cropping system and crop density were not associated with the root rot incidence and percentage severity index. Our results showed that root rot is a major biotic constraint in the study area and suggested that proper soil drainage and weed management practices could contribute to reduce the impact of the disease until resistant faba bean genotypes are developed and distributed to small-scale faba bean growers in northeastern Ethiopia and other similar areas of the country.  相似文献   

12.
To evaluate the performance of new rice establishment methods viz., system of rice intensification (SRI) and integrated crop management (ICM), a field study was conducted during 2008–11 in South Garo Hills, Meghalaya, foot hills of Eastern Himalayas, India. Field demonstrations were undertaken during wet seasons of 2008–11 and socio-economic information in the context of farmer’s realities were obtained during 2010–11 using a well structured questionnaire administered to 134 farmers. The results indicated that the average higher productivity of rice under SRI and ICM demonstration was 209.9 and 185.4 %, respectively, over conventional rice culture (CRC). The SRI and ICM methods of rice cultivation could save seeds (97.56 and 60.98 %), saving water (78.05 and 63.66 %), reduce cost (70.33 %), higher yield etc. compared to CRC. The main reasons for non-adoption of SRI/ICM was related to involvement of more efforts, faith towards traditional practices, ignorance and lack of knowledge on scientific water management. The net-return of $816.69, $706.63 and $51.48/ha was realized under SRI, ICM and CRC, respectively. The co-efficient of multiple determinations (R 2) of the production function was 0.695 in SRI, 0.714 in ICM and 0.734 in CRC which indicated that about 69.5, 71.4 and 73.4 % of the variation in rice productivity under SRI, ICM and CRC, respectively were explained by the independent variable and remaining 30.5, 28.6 and 26.6 %., respectively in SRI, ICM and CRC were as a result of non-inclusion of some explanatory variables as well as other factors outside the farmers control.  相似文献   

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14.
The cropping systems model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) was applied to assess the response of sorghum grain yield to inorganic fertilizers applications and residue retention in diverse farmers’ management systems (homestead fields and bush farms). The model was parameterized using data collected from experiments under optimum growth conditions (limited water or nutrient stress). Independent data from field experiments with three levels of P and four levels of N fertilizers conducted at two different locations and soils were used to evaluate the model. Soil water and fertility parameters measured were used for simulations while same starting conditions were assumed for unmeasured parameters for all trials. APSIM predicted the grain yield response of sorghum to both N and P applications with an overall modified internal coefficient of efficiency of 0.64. Following model parameterization, a long-term simulation study was conducted using a stochastic weather data derived from historical weather data to assess the effects of crop residue management on grain production. A gradual decline in sorghum grain yield was simulated over the 30-year simulation period in both the homestead fields and the bush farms, with yields being much lower in the latter under farmers’ management practices. Half the amount of mineral N fertilizer used in the bush farms was needed in the homestead fields to produce the average grain yields produced on the bush farm with full fertilization, if crop residues were returned to the fields in the homestead. Year-to-year variability in grain yield was consistently higher with the removal of crop residues, irrespective of management systems. APSIM was responsive to both organic and inorganic fertilizer applications in the study area and also highlighted the essential role of crop residues and inorganic fertilizer in influencing the temporal sorghum grain production and hence the impact of farmers’ management practices on food security. This was evident in the rapid decline in soil organic carbon (SOC) accompanied by a decline in grain yield over the 30 years of cropping. The use of inorganic fertilizer and retention of crop residues (SOC) are critical for attaining food security in the study area.  相似文献   

15.
Improving crop yields in major agricultural regions is one of the foremost scientific challenges for the next few decades. In Northwest India, the stagnation of wheat yields over the past decade presents a distressing contrast to the tremendous yield gains achieved during the Green Revolution. One commonly proposed way to raise yields is to reduce the often considerable gap between yield potential and average yields realized in farmers’ fields, yet the likely effectiveness of different strategies to close this gap has been poorly known. Here we use a unique, decade long satellite-based dataset on wheat yields to examine various options for closing the yield gap in the south of Punjab. Persistent spatial differences in sowing dates and distance from canal are found to be significant sources of yield variation, with the latter factor suggesting the importance of reliable access to irrigation water for yield improvement in this region. However, the total yield gains achievable by addressing persistent factors are only a small fraction of yield losses in farmers’ fields. The majority of the yield gap is found to arise from factors unrelated to field location, such as interactions between management and weather. Technologies that improve farmers’ ability to anticipate or adjust to weather variations, or that improve stability of genotype performance across different weather conditions, therefore appear crucial if average crop yields are to approach their genetic potential.  相似文献   

16.
Disease perception and adequate management practices are two essential issues faced by farmers, especially in the current context of climate change which may potentially increase disease risk. We investigated the diversity of water yam cropping systems in Guadeloupe through interviews, how producers and international yam research scientists perceived anthracnose, and how this perception correlated with farmers’ risk management strategies. We found that disease perception by farmers is very close to perception by international yam experts, as both have the same perception of the hierarchy of factors translating into disease. Three different yam production strategies coexist at a local scale, where agronomic practices and socio-economic profiles are distinct and consistent with attitude toward anthracnose risk management. Six factors were perceived as decreasing the disease: associated crop species; crop rotation; staking; weeding; crop monitoring and varietal admixture. Yam producers raising crops more intensively were risk prone, while others usually sought practices to manage disease appearance and spread. Both cumulative risk and past anthracnose epidemic experiences translated into heavier reliance on chemicals. These results have practical implications for designing best yam crop management systems and control of yam anthracnose.  相似文献   

17.
Phomopsis stem canker (Diaporthe helianthi) is a worldwide fungal disease which is responsible for high yield losses in sunflower crop in the main regions of production. Field data on the influence of crop management on the incidence and severity of stem canker were reported by Debaeke et al. (2003) but a more thorough study was required to analyse step-by-step the spread of the fungus within the canopy from spore deposition on leaves to stem injury.In a 2-year study (2000–2001), the effects of crop management (plant density, N fertilization, and irrigation) and genotypic tolerance (susceptible vs tolerant cultivars) on the epidemics of Diaporthe helianthi were monitored under conditions of reinforced inoculum. The incidence and severity of leaf and stem symptoms were closely related to canopy development (leaf area index) and microclimatic conditions (relative humidity) resulting from different crop management options. Increasing plant density resulted in a greater proportion of girdling stem lesions, detrimental to yield, because of earlier infection under dense canopies. The number of girdling lesions per plant was maximal with high N fertilization but more leaves were infected without N fertilization.The field data were used to evaluate satisfactorily the epidemiological Asphodel model regarding the main periods of leaf infection. The relative humidity within the canopy (observed), the number of leaf infection events (simulated by Asphodel) and the final proportion of stem lesions (observed) were positively related which clearly demonstrated the key role of crop management in the development of stem canker in sunflower.  相似文献   

18.
A set of daily weather data simulations for 1961 to 2050 were used to calculate past and future trends in pest and disease pressure in potato cropping systems at three agro-ecologically distinct sites in South Africa: the Sandveld, the Eastern Free State and Limpopo. The diseases and pests modelled were late blight, early blight and brown spot, blackleg and soft rot, root-knot nematodes and the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae (as indicator of Potato virus Y and Potato leaf roll virus). The effects of climate on trends in relative development rates of these pathogens and pests were modelled for each pathogen and pest using a set of quantitative parameters, which included specific temperature and moisture requirements for population growth, compiled from literature. Results showed that the cumulative relative development rate (cRDR) of soft rot and blackleg, root-knot nematodes and M. persicae will increase over the 90-year period in the areas under consideration. The cRDR of early blight and brown spot is likely to increase in the wet winter and wet summer crops of the Sandveld and Eastern Free State, respectively, but remains unchanged in the dry summer and dry winter crops of the Sandveld and Limpopo, respectively. Climate change will decrease the cRDR of late blight in all of the cropping systems modelled, except in the wet winter crop of the Sandveld. These results help to set priorities in research and breeding, specifically in relation to management strategies for diseases and pests.  相似文献   

19.
The ‘within-season’ module of the Weed Manager decision support system (DSS) predicts the effect of twelve UK arable weeds on winter wheat yields and profitability. The model and decision algorithm that underpin the DSS are described and their performance discussed. The model comprises: (i) seedling germination and emergence, (ii) early growth, (iii) phenological development, (iv) herbicide and cultivation effects and (v) crop yield loss. Crop and weed emergence are predicted from the timing and method of cultivation, species biology, and the weather. Wheat and weeds compete for resources, and yield losses are predicted from their relative leaf area at canopy closure. Herbicides and cultural control methods reduce weed green area index, improving crop yield. A decision algorithm identifies economically successful weed management strategies based on model output. The output of the Weed Manager model and decision algorithm was extensively validated by experts, who confirmed the predicted responses to herbicide application were sufficiently accurate for practical use. Limited independent data were also used in the validation. The development of the module required integrating novel and existing approaches for simulating weed seedling establishment, plant development and decision algorithm design. Combining these within Weed Manager created a framework suitable for commercial use.  相似文献   

20.
Multi-factor crop management field experiments were conducted in Vezaiciai, in southwestern Lithuania, from 2004 to 2006 to assess the influence of tillage and organic fertilizer management on stem base disease development. The treatments included 4-year crop rotations of continuous grass, winter triticale, winter oilseed rape and spring barley in combination with three tillage systems (shallow (8–10 cm) non-ploughing tillage, shallow (10–12 cm) tillage and deep (20–25 cm) ploughing). Eyespot prevailed both in winter triticale and spring barley crops. Winter triticale was more susceptible than spring barley. Shallow tillage decreased eyespot incidence and severity relative to deep tillage. Crop residue management exerted a weak but statistically significant effect on the disease development on triticale; in general, slightly higher numbers of affected stems were recorded in triticale plots where the straw from the previous crop had been removed prior to planting. However, complete straw removal from plots significantly decreased eyespot severity in comparison with crop residue or manure management treatments in spring barley. The highest number of affected triticale and barley plants was found in shallow (10–12 cm) tillage plots. The effects of residue management on minimising eyespot severity can be expected only after a delay of a few years.  相似文献   

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