林业产品价格竞争的数学模型

应用微分法建立林业产品价格竞争的数学模型,并提出在激烈的价格竞争中企业的应对策略。     

Stochastic simulation of forest fuel sourcing models under risk

Abstract

Climate change effects such as storms and droughts are leading to increased risk of forest damage in central Europe. The aim of this paper was to evaluate forest fuel sourcing models including climate change-induced risks on forest fuel supply. Stochastic risk events, such as storms and bark beetle infestations, were modelled by means of a Monte Carlo simulation, and the economic performance was evaluated for two fuel-sourcing models supplying a single combined heat and power plant (CHP). The first sourcing model depicted a common sourcing model for Austrian CHPs, where only forest chips provided by long- and short-term suppliers were stored. The second sourcing model additionally enabled the storage of salvaged pulpwood to supply forest fuel from the plant's own inventory during shortage periods. Simulation results showed that storing salvage pulpwood as feedstock considerably reduced supply chain risks and resulted in lower procurement costs (1–3% less than normal delivered cost without storing salvaged pulpwood).     

森林生态系统生物量的模拟

森林生态系统定位研究的成果,将会为森林经营管理者提供决策的理论基础和最佳的实施方案.如若对系统中各成分和功能过程全面了解,通过系统的计算机模拟,可以表示出系统内各成分相互作用以及整个系统对不同干扰、环境污染和经营管理措施的反应,将对实现林业向生态化转变,为森林多效性的稳定和永久利用发挥作用.     

森林价格补偿体系的构建

森林的生态效益作为一种公共物品,难以进入产品市场进行交易,这使营林业面临资金投入不足的问题。从研究森林资源物质形态的转换与林产业的关系出发,探讨了通过森林资源的价格补偿解决森林培育资金不足问题的途径,进而促进全部社会资源在各产业间合理配置,最终通过市场解决森林资源的价值补偿问题。     

信息技术环境下的森工企业SCM模式浅析

本文运用SCM的基础理论，阐述了在当前信息技术环境下SCM模式的运用，探讨了目前我国森工企业在运用SCM模式中所存在的一些问题和误区。     

Point process models for mixed sessile forest stands

• Background   

Growth modelling of complex stands calls for the use of spatially explicit single-tree models. Such models require spatially explicit tree locations as the initial state to run simulations. Given the cost of such data, virtual forest stands, where tree locations are simulated, are generally used as the initial state.     

Effects of continuous optimal fertilization on belowground ectomycorrhizal community structure in a Norway spruce forest

Studies of effects of fertilizer treatment on ectomycorrhizal fungal community structure have predominantly been based on large, single additions of nitrogen. Studies involving chronic additions of nutrients in combination with irrigation are much less common. We used morphotyping to study effects of balanced additions of a nutrient solution on ectomycorrhizal fungal community structure in a 36-year-old stand of Picea abies (L.) Karst. Despite high variability among individual samples, principal components analysis revealed a clear shift in community structure in response to fertilization. Irrigated plots receiving only water did not differ significantly from untreated control plots. Mycorrhizal root tips colonized by Cenococcum geophilum Fr. were significantly more common in fertilized plots than in control plots. Possible responses by other ectomycorrhizal species were masked by high variability. Over sixty morphotypes were distinguished, but there was no measurable effect of either fertilizer or irrigation treatment on morphotype richness or total number of root tips.     

Measuring the social performance of forest management

Forests produce several types of benefits to both forest landowners and society.The social benefit of private forestry is equal to private benefit plus positive externalities minus negative externalities.This study developed alternative metrics for the evaluation of the social benefit of forest management.Forest management was assessed in terms of five criteria:economic,socio-cultural,environmental and ecological performance and the resilience of the forest ecosystem.Each criterion was described with three numerical indicators.Alternative performance indices were calculated from the indicator values using methods developed for multi-criteria decision making.It was concluded that indices based on the multiplicative Cobb-Douglas utility function might be the most recommendable when forestry should produce a balanced combination of different ecosystem services.When the indices were used to compare alternative silvicultural systems in terms of their social performance,continuous cover management was ranked better than even-aged management.The performance of even-aged management improved when it aimed at increasing the share of mixed stands and broadleaf species.Maximizing net present value(NPV) with a 1 % discount rate led to better social performance than maximizing NPV with a 4% discount rate.     

森林资源动态管理系统中人工林进界木株数模型研究

引起森林资源动态变化的原因主要有两个方面，一是人为活动对森林资源的影响； 二是自然生长与枯损引起资源的消长变化。进界木生长是引起森林资源变化的重要因素之 一，在“温州市森林资源动态管理系统”软件的设计过程中，对南方集体林区人工林的进 二，界木模型进行了研究，提出了适合于浙南山区的进界木株数变化模型。     

Autologistic regression and multicriteria evaluation models for the prediction of forest expansion

Land use changes are complex ecological processes driven by the interaction of biophysical and human related factors. The prediction of forest land use changes is important for sustainable forest management and biodiversity conservation. This study investigates the modelling process of the spatial dynamics of a forest ecosystem in north eastern Greece. For the prediction of forest expansion, based on land use data of the study area, a deterministic approach using logistic regression and heuristic methods of multi-criteria evaluation is adopted. The set of factors driving forest expansion are: the slope, the distance to roads, the distance to urban areas, the distance to forest, the soil depth, the soil erosion and the influence from the land uses of the neighbourhood. The spatial autocorrelation of driving factors is addressed using an autologistic regression model. The multicriteria evaluation approach is developed using weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods. In WLC method the relative importance of each factor was estimated using the analytical hierarchy process. In the OWA method, decision strategies are generated using a selection of relative linguistic quantifiers, which allow different Risk in decisions. The accuracy of the models produced was tested with real data for the year 2001 using the ROC validation method. All the methods produced satisfactory results. Autologistic regression showed slightly better performance than multicriteria evaluation methods due to higher degree of objectivity in defining the importance of driving factors for forest expansion.     

封山育林增强祁连山水源涵养林效能

祁连山区的社会、经济条件以及自然环境状况决定了封山育林是恢复、保护、扩展祁连山天然林资源的有效措施，在封山育林的前提下，采用抚育间伐、造林等综合培育方法，处理好农林牧矛盾，祁连山森林涵养水源效能将能充分发挥。     

Incorporating social factors to improve the Japanese forest zoning process

The Japanese forest zoning process used to be simpler when society treated wood production as the primary objective rather than the current system that requires zoning for a variety of uses. Although we support the recent change in zoning process, we identify two potential problems. One is that land is zoned by means of forest site quality that is evaluated based on natural conditions without paying much attention to social factors. The second problem is that they attempt to determine the primary management objective of a forest block simply by comparing the results of a site quality assessment, which is often very difficult. To alleviate these problems we propose a methodology that incorporates social factors into a zoning process. We used a set of social factors to revise the site quality assessment (SQA) for some forest functions. Then, we proposed a method that integrated SQA scores and weighted values that were obtained through public involvement. As a case study in which we examined the effectiveness of the methodology, we selected two regions; Rokko, which is close to large cities, and Shiso, where forestry is one of the major industries. We divided these regions into a grid of about one thousand units and classified the forest functions into eight categories. First, we compared SQA scores that had been evaluated based on the natural conditions with those that were adjusted according to social factors. Then, employing the revised SQA scores and social evaluation (SE) for each function, we determined the number of units on the grid to which each function was assigned as the primary management objective. We found that incorporating social factors yielded significant differences in the site quality assessment as well as the determination of the number of grid-units for some functions, suggesting that this method may be used to alleviate existing problems with the current zoning process.     

Changes in aboveground and belowground properties during secondary natural succession of a cool-temperate forest in Japan

Forest development in temperate regions is considered to be a global carbon sink. Many studies have examined forest development after harvesting or fire from aboveground (e.g., biomass) or belowground (e.g., soil nutrient) perspectives. However, few studies have explored forest development from both perspectives simultaneously in cool-temperate forests in Japan. In this study, we examined changes over 105 years in both aboveground and belowground components during secondary natural succession. The aboveground biomass increased for 50 years and reached a plateau in a 105-year-old stand. The N mineralization rate increased during succession for 50 years, but showed a decline in the 105-year-old stand due to the decrease in the nitrification rate in late succession. The percent nitrification (i.e., relative contribution of nitrification to N mineralization) decreased significantly with increasing forest stand age. The N mineralization rates had significant relationships with N concentrations of the dominant tree foliage and litter fall and with the amount of litter fall N. Meanwhile, other belowground properties (i.e., soil pH, phenol concentration, soil microbial respiration, and litter mass loss) did not show any significant relationship with forest stand age. This may be because the soil at the study sites was heterogeneous and consisted of Cambisols and Andosols, the latter of which originally has high organic matter content, and thus may have buffered the effect of the aboveground development. These results indicate that belowground N dynamics are more closely associated with aboveground development than other belowground properties in these forests.     

森林资源资产评估程序探讨

本文分析了一般资产评估的程序,提出森林资源资产评估的具体程序。森林资源资产评估管理就是规范评估程序的过程。     

转变观念有力于推动"天保工程"进展

国家实施天保工程以后,作为森工林区是实施天保工程的主战场。因而,在林区彻底转变旧观念,建立新观念,对天保工程起推动作用。     

Technical change in forest sector models: the global forest products model approach

Technical change is developing rapidly in some parts of the forest sector, especially in the pulp and paper industry where wood fiber is being substituted by waste paper. In forest sector models, the processing of wood and other input into products is frequently represented by activity analysis (input–output). In this context, technical change translates in changes over time of the input–output (I–O) coefficients and of the manufacturing cost (labor, capital, and materials, excluding wood and fiber). In the case of the global forest products model, the I–O coefficients and the manufacturing costs are determined empirically from historical data, while correcting for possible reporting errors. The method consists of goal programming. The objective function is the sum of the weighted absolute value of the deviations from estimated and observed production in each country of interest. The constraints express the relationship between the multiple output (sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper) and input (wood, waste paper, other fiber) and prior knowledge on the limits of the I–O coefficients. The paper presents observed technical changes from 1993 to 2010 and projections to 2030 with their consequences for the global forest sector in terms of prices, production and consumption, value added, and carbon sequestration in forest biomass.     

Growth and yield models for uneven-sized forest stands in Finland

Uneven-sized forestry is gradually gaining popularity and acceptability also in the Nordic countries. This is because of the willingness of the public and some forest owners to avoid clear-fellings and pursue more near-nature forest structures. It has also been realized that the profitability of uneven-sized forestry may be competitive with even-aged forestry. In Finland, management of uneven-sized stands is hampered by the lack of information about the dynamics of such stands, and about the yield and profitability of uneven-sized forestry. This study developed models which allow managers to simulate the growth and yield of uneven-sized stands in Finland, making it possible to predict the yield and analyze the sustainability of different management options. The model set consists of individual-tree diameter increment, height and survival models, and a model for ingrowth. The modeling data consisted of two long-term field experiments of uneven-sized forest management, a set of temporary sample plots measured earlier for growth modeling purposes, and the sample plots of the third National Forest Inventory of Finland. The application area of the models covers all growing sites, all main tree species, and the whole surface area of Finland. According to the models, the sustainable harvest of a fertile (Oxalis-Myrtillus site) uneven-sized Norway spruce forest varies between 5.5 and 7 m³ ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ in Central Finland, depending on the length of the cutting cycle, stand density, and shape of the diameter distribution. It is profitable to harvest large diameter classes more heavily than small ones. Due to the large amount of data the models for diameter increment are highly significant and reliably show the growth level of trees in uneven-sized stands. The weakest models are the ingrowth models, which are based on a clearly smaller data set than the other models.     

Bayesian calibration of process-based forest models: bridging the gap between models and data

Process-based forest models generally have many parameters, multiple outputs of interest and a small underlying empirical database. These characteristics hamper parameterization. Bayesian calibration offers a solution to the calibration problem because it applies to models of any type or size. It provides parameter estimates, with measures of uncertainty and correlation among the parameters. The procedure begins by quantifying the uncertainty about parameter values in the form of a prior probability distribution. Then data on the output variables are used to update the parameter distribution by means of Bayes' Theorem. This yields a posterior calibrated distribution for the parameters, which can be summarized in the form of a mean vector and variance matrix. The predictive uncertainty of the model can be quantified by running it with different parameter settings, sampled from the posterior distribution. In a further step, one may evaluate the posterior probability of the model itself (rather than that of the parameters) and compare that against the probability of other models, to aid in model selection or improvement. Bayesian calibration of process-based models cannot be performed analytically, so the posterior parameter distribution must be approximated in the form of a representative sample of parameter values. This can be achieved by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, which is suitable for process-based models because of its simplicity and because it does not require advance knowledge of the shape of the posterior distribution. Despite the suitability of Bayesian calibration, the technique has rarely been used in forestry research. We introduce the method, using the example of a typical forest model. Further, we show that reductions in parameter uncertainty, and thus in output uncertainty, can be effected by increasing the variety of data, increasing the accuracy of measurements and increasing the length of time series.