Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population

Many species of conservation concern are in decline due to threats from multiple sources. To quantify the conservation requirements of these species we need robust estimates of the impact of each threat on the rate of population decline. However, for the vast majority of species this information is lacking. Here we demonstrate the application of integrated population modelling as a means of deriving robust estimates of the impact of multiple threats for a rapidly declining koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in South-east Queensland, Australia. Integrated population modelling provides a basis for reducing uncertainty and bias by formally integrating information from multiple data sources into a single model. We quantify mortality rates due to threats from dog attacks, vehicle collisions and disease and the extent to which each of these mortality rates would need to be reduced, or how much habitat would need to be restored, to stop the population declining. We show that the integrated population modelling approach substantially reduces uncertainty. We also show that recovery actions that only address single threats would need to reduce those threats to implausibly low levels to recover the population. This indicates that strategies for simultaneously tackling multiple threats are necessary; a situation that is likely to be true for many of the world’s threatened species. This study provides an important framework for quantifying the conservation requirements of species undergoing declines due to multiple threats.     

Movement and behavior of scarlet macaws (Ara macao) during the post-fledging dependence period: implications for in situ versus ex situ management

Knowledge of scarlet macaw (Ara macao) biology during the post-fledging period is limited, yet information about this important life stage is critical to developing effective conservation strategies. We used radiotelemetry to study the post-fledging movements and behavior of scarlet macaws from an isolated and threatened population in Costa Rica. Our results indicate that monitoring and protection of young macaws during the initial 14 days post-fledging is a critical conservation measure. We identify coastal mangrove as an important habitat for the species during the post-fledging period. Young scarlet macaws gradually developed flight and feeding skills, learned behaviors and movement patterns from their parents, and were integrated into social groups during the post-fledging period. Our results underscore the challenges facing management programs based on captive rearing and stress the importance of in situ conservation focusing on nest cavity management and protection in cooperation with local communities.     

Waiting reveals waning weight: Monitoring over 54 years shows a decline in body condition of a long-lived reptile (tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus)

Knowledge gained from monitoring has been the basis for many critical decisions in threatened and endangered species and ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring has been recognized as a necessity for elucidating population trends and community interactions, particularly for long-lived species or ecosystems with slow rates of change. We examine seasonal and annual cycles of morphological changes in a threatened, long-lived, insular reptile, the tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus), on Stephens Island, New Zealand. We used body condition indices as a surrogate measure of fitness, and examined seasonal fluctuations, using data from an intensive mark-recapture study, and long-term trends using a dataset that spans 54 years. In spite of seasonal and annual fluctuations, body condition of tuatara has declined significantly between 1949 and 2003; the decline was only evident after >22 years of monitoring. We hypothesize that increasing numbers of tuatara have resulted in a density-dependent population response driven by past habitat modification on Stephens Island. We emphasize the need for long-term monitoring and suggest that potentially costly management decisions, particularly for long-lived species or ecosystems with slow rates of change, should not be based solely on short-term monitoring.     

Monitoring multiple species: Estimating state variables and exploring the efficacy of a monitoring program

Monitoring programs have the potential to identify population declines and differentiate among the possible cause(s) of these declines. Recent criticisms regarding the design of monitoring programs have highlighted a failure to clearly state objectives and to address detectability and spatial sampling issues. Here, we incorporate these criticisms to design an efficient monitoring program whose goals are to determine environmental factors which influence the current distribution and measure change in distributions over time for a suite of amphibians. In designing the study we (1) specified a priori factors that may relate to occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities and (2) used the data collected (incorporating detectability) to address our scientific questions and adjust our sampling protocols. Our results highlight the role of wetland hydroperiod and other local covariates in the probability of amphibian occupancy. There was a change in overall occupancy probabilities for most species over the first three years of monitoring. Most colonization and extinction estimates were constant over time (years) and space (among wetlands), with one notable exception: local extinction probabilities for Rana clamitans were lower for wetlands with longer hydroperiods. We used information from the target system to generate scenarios of population change and gauge the ability of the current sampling to meet monitoring goals. Our results highlight the limitations of the current sampling design, emphasizing the need for long-term efforts, with periodic re-evaluation of the program in a framework that can inform management decisions.     

Linking the gaps between conservation research and conservation management of rare dipterocarps: A case study of Shorea lumutensis

To conserve a rare plant, conservation programs must be guided by the biological attributes of the species. What constitutes the most critical biological information for plant conservation has been the issue of discussion for the last 30 years. Most scientists promote an approach that is either ecological or genetic in emphasis. Ecological and genetic processes will often interact synergistically to influence the population viability and to determine the persistence of populations in the long run. Consequently, conservation management of plant species, in addition to ecological information, requires a robust understanding of underlying genetic processes as well as the variation within and between populations. Conservation has a cost and the resources available for conservation programs are always limited. Therefore, conservation management strategies should not only be scientifically justified but also practical in terms of resource availability. Shorea lumutensis is a rare and endemic dipterocarp in Peninsular Malaysia. A comprehensive research activity was initiated to assess the population ecology and population genetics of S. lumutensis to elucidate specific ecological and genetic requirements and subsequently to set conservation strategies and priorities. This paper is apparently the first attempt at applying both the ecological and genetic approaches into conservation management of a rare dipterocarp. In addition, this paper also attempts to link the gaps between conservation research and conservation management in a realistic manner. It is our hope that this study will serve as a model for the study of other rare dipterocarps which should be given priority for conservation.     

Demonstrating decline of an iconic species under sustained indigenous harvest – The pig-nosed turtle (Carettochelys insculpta) in Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea has astonishing biological and cultural diversity which, coupled with a strong community reliance on the land and its biota for subsistence, add complexity to monitoring and conservation and in particular, the demonstration of declines in wildlife populations. Many species of concern are long-lived which provides additional challenges for conservation. We provide, for the first time, concrete evidence of a substantive decline in populations of the pig-nosed turtle (Carettochelys insculpta); an important source of protein for local communities. Our study combined matched village and market surveys separated by 30 years, trends in nesting female size, and assessment of levels and efficacy of harvest, each of which was an essential ingredient to making a definitive assessment of population trends. Opportunities for an effective response by local communities to these declines needs to consider both conservation and fisheries perspectives because local communities consider the turtle a food resource, whereas the broader global community views it as a high priority for conservation. Our study in the Kikori region is representative of harvest regimes in most rivers within the range of the species in Papua New Guinea, and provides lessons for conservation of many other wildlife species subject to harvest.     

A fuzzy logic expert system to estimate intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities of marine fishes to fishing

Fishing has become a major conservation threat to marine fishes. Effective conservation of threatened species requires timely identification of vulnerable species. However, evaluation of extinction risk using conventional methods is difficult for the majority of fish species because the population data normally required by such methods are unavailable. This paper presents a fuzzy expert system that integrates life history and ecological characteristics of marine fishes to estimate their intrinsic vulnerability to fishing. We extract heuristic rules (expressed in IF-THEN clauses) from published literature describing known relationships between biological characteristics and vulnerability. Input and output variables are defined by fuzzy sets which deal explicitly with the uncertainty associated with qualitative knowledge. Conclusions from different lines of evidence are combined through fuzzy inference and defuzzification processes. Our fuzzy system provides vulnerability estimates that correlate with observed declines more closely than previous methods, and has advantages in flexibility of input data requirements, in the explicit representation of uncertainty, and in the ease of incorporating new knowledge. This fuzzy expert system can be used as a decision support tool in fishery management and marine conservation planning.     

Post-fledging dispersal, habitat use, and survival of Sprague’s pipits: Are planted grasslands a good substitute for native?

Loss and degradation of native grasslands on the North American landscape are some of the key factors influencing population declines of grassland songbirds. It is unclear what role anthropogenic grasslands play in the conservation of grassland specialists and whether demographic parameters of grassland songbirds differ between anthropogenic and native grasslands. Furthermore, there has been little research examining the overlap (or lack thereof) between nesting and post-fledging habitat. We initiated a radio-telemetry study from 2004 to 2008 on dispersal, microhabitat use, and survival of juvenile Sprague’s pipits (Anthus spragueii), a threatened grassland-obligate songbird, in native pastures and fields planted with exotic species (planted grasslands). Dispersal distance was greater in planted compared to native grasslands, but appeared to be constrained to natal fields up to 26-d post-fledging. Pipits used microhabitats in planted grasslands with vegetation that was on average 11 cm taller than used locations in native pastures, possibly due to the rapid growth of planted vegetation by the time individuals fledged. Individuals that were reared in planted grasslands had consistently lower daily survival rates compared to those in native pastures. Our observation that young birds rarely left their natal field suggests that conserving nesting habitat in native pastures would be an effective management strategy for this species. However, our results suggest that planted grasslands may act as population sinks given the lower survival of juvenile pipits reared in planted fields in our region. Demographic studies during the post-fledging period are essential to determine the conservation value of anthropogenic grasslands for North American songbirds.     

Minimum viable population and conservation status of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi, a species threatened by habitat loss and restricted geographical distribution. Objectives were to suggest quasi-extinction thresholds, estimate minimum areas of suitable habitat (MASH) and MVPs, and compare results with the species’ current status. The computer package VORTEX was used. The model predicted sizes of 200 animals to achieve demographic stability, but buffering declines in genetic variability required populations of 2000 animals. Estimated MASHs were approximately 250 and 2500 ha for demographic and genetic stability, respectively. Mortality rate and mean litter size were the most sensitive parameters to changes in model assumptions. The protection of known populations and the search for extant populations are the first steps in conservation. T. eliasi's issue could help protecting the coastal shrubland ecosystem of Rio de Janeiro state. Observing IUCN's criteria for listing threatened species, it is suggested that T. eliasi should be ranked as vulnerable in red lists.     

Seahorse declines in the Derwent estuary, Tasmania in the absence of fishing pressure

Seahorses have the potential to be flagship species for estuarine conservation around the world and considerable concern has arisen over their declining abundance in the face of exploitation. All seahorses were recently listed on CITES Appendix II in recognition of threats posed by unsustainable trade. However, the efficacy of this measure and the development of other effective conservation solutions will require an understanding of natural seahorse population dynamics at relevant ecological scales. In this study, we provide quantitative data on seahorse populations over nested spatial and temporal scales up to 10 km and 3.5 years. Unexploited populations of the big-bellied seahorse (Hippocampus abdominalis) in the Derwent estuary, Tasmania, Australia consisted largely of mature adults with highly female-biased sex ratios at all sites. While big-bellied seahorses had an aggregated distribution at the spatial scale of our transects (200 m²), most individuals were found alone. When they occurred in groups, the distribution of individuals was random with respect to sex in contrast to the pair bonds found in other seahorse species. All three monitored populations showed significant declines in abundance of 79-98% over the period 2001-2004. Estuarine physicochemical conditions did not change markedly during this period. Possible causes of seahorse declines are interactions with invasive species, disease or reproductive limitation through Allee effects. The magnitude of the declines in the absence of direct exploitation demonstrates that seahorses face multiple threats. Robust fisheries-independent monitoring will be required to demonstrate that conservation actions such as CITES listing are effective.     

Wild-captive metapopulation viability analysis

We developed an interactive management model for wild and captive populations of the ploughshare tortoise or angonoka, Geochelone yniphora. Interactive management is based on the translocation of individuals between wild and captive populations to simulate a metapopulation. Demographic parameters of one captive and two wild populations of this rare tortoise were used to conduct a metapopulation viability analysis (MVA). The effectiveness of the conservation strategy proposed for this species was then evaluated by modifying the probability of extinction and growth of the metapopulation over a fixed period of time. Several alternative scenarios of interactive management were then tested and ranked in terms of their effect on the viability of the metapopulation. The model predicted that catastrophic events such as bush fires would likely have a negative effect on the future of remaining wild populations. However, the model also predicted that the use of captive-born offspring to establish additional wild populations would decrease the risk of extinction of the metapopulation as a whole. We believe that, when supported by sound knowledge of the demographic parameters of a species, the use of MVA as part of an interactive management program can be an effective conservation tool that allows assessment of the probable response of both captive and wild populations to different management alternatives. One of the most interesting aspects of this interactive management approach is the link between in situ and ex situ conservation.     

Reconciling the dichotomy between single species and ecosystem conservation: black kites (Milvus migrans) and eutrophication in pre-Alpine lakes

In recent times there has been a growing dichotomy between preservation of single species and broader, ecosystem-based approaches to conservation. Freshwater habitats are among the most highly human-impacted ecosystems. We used a long-term data set on black kites (Milvus migrans), a threatened raptor dependent on aquatic habitats, to explore ways to reconcile single species and biodiversity-driven approaches to conservation. In the pre-Alpine lakes of northern Italy, black kite populations showed medium-low density, extremely low breeding success and widespread declines. Spatio-temporal variations showed density and breeding success to be positively related to ecosystem productivity (as estimated by phosphorus concentrations in lakes), availability of aquatic habitats and grassland, and to be negatively related to extent of farmland and fish harvest by professional fishermen. Fish species richness, used as a surrogate of biodiversity, was highest in one oligotrophic lake, but on average increased with increasing ecosystem productivity (i.e. lake eutrophication). Given expected future declines in ecosystem productivity, kite conservation will be helped by enhancing populations of alternative prey in terrestrial habitats (e.g. through incentives for grassland), and higher regulation of fish harvest. On the other hand, ecosystem management may profit from the use of black kites or other aerial piscivores as indicators of biodiversity and of diffuse ecosystem stress, such as sustainability of fishing practices.     

Modelling habitat and spatial distribution of an endangered longhorn beetle - A case study for saproxylic insect conservation

Saproxylic insects are characterised by their exceptional diversity and high proportion of threatened species. No recent studies have demonstrated the validity of habitat suitability analysis for scientifically based habitat management for these species. We studied the habitat requirements of the endangered longhorn beetle Cerambyx cerdo, a species with a supposed keystone function for the saproxylic insect community living on oaks. We used species distribution modelling based on datasets from Central Europe to understand the species-habitat relationships and to find the environmental variables responsible for habitat selection of C. cerdo. Our results show that the most important parameters, insolation, presence of oak sap, bark depth and the distance from the next colonised tree, are able to predict the presence of C. cerdo very well. A spatial validation procedure revealed very similar predictive power, indicating the general validity of our model. Tree-level parameters were shown to have a stronger effect on the occurrence probability than landscape-level predictors. To improve the tree-level conditions (e.g. insolation on the trunk) habitat management in the form of semi-open pasture landscapes is recommended from which many other taxa will also draw considerable benefit. The provision of such conditions over decades is the essential key in the conservation of this longhorn beetle species. The success of the European network of conservation areas “Natura 2000” heavily depends on broad biological knowledge of the designated protected species. The present paper shows that species distribution models can give valuable contributions for conservation in saproxylic insects.     

Translocation of captive-bred dibblers Parantechinus apicalis (Marsupialia: Dasyuridae) to Escape Island, Western Australia

The introduction of threatened marsupials to islands affords a high degree of translocation success due to the lack of exotic species on islands, or the feasibility of eradicating them. The dibbler Parantechinus apicalis is a small marsupial endemic to the southwest of Australia. It is listed under international and national legislation as Endangered, and has been the focus of a successful conservation strategy to introduce captive-bred individuals to an island as a security measure, and as part of a formal Interim Recovery Plan. A total of 88 individuals were released in four groups on Escape Island from 1998 to 2000. The population was monitored using radiotelemetry and trapping techniques from 1998 to 2001. Breeding and dispersal of young occurred within the first year of release. Three years after the initial release, the third generation of wild-born dibblers had entered into the population. The total cost of this translocation exercise approximated $AUS 0.6 million. The conservation effort to give additional security to dibblers has been successful, at least in the short term, due to the collaboration between four organisations and a commitment to support a monitoring program of the released population over time.     

Recovering marbled murrelets via corvid management: A population viability analysis approach

The expansion of human activities into rural areas and natural landscapes has resulted in widespread increases in the abundance of synanthropic species that threaten rarer native species. Quantitative assessments of how much impacts need to be reduced to reach acceptable levels of risk to the affected species are rarely conducted prior to the implementation of control measures, and it is perhaps not surprising that many efforts have not yielded the desired outcome. Here, we used matrix-based population viability analysis models to show that reducing predation by rapidly growing corvid populations on marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) nests likely constitutes an effective means for recovering a declining murrelet population in central California. For example, a modest 40% reduction in predation reduced extinction risk dramatically from 95.8% to 4.6% over 100 years and a 60% reduction resulted in a stable population (λ = 1) when the proportion of breeders, renesting rates, and corvid predation rates were assumed to be 0.77, 0.13, and 0.69, respectively. However, nest predation would only need to be reduced by 40% to produce a stable population if corvid management was coupled with a modest increase in after-hatch-year survival from 0.896 to 0.910. Corvid control resulted in greater gains in murrelet population size when the maximum number of breeders was allowed to increase over the projection period, as might be expected if the amount of old-growth nesting habitat increased over time, but extinction risk was insensitive to the presence of a carrying capacity. Approximately half of known murrelet nests in central California are within 1 km of heavily used campgrounds in a single state park, indicating that significant gains in viability could be achieved by targeting efforts in small areas providing corvid food subsidies. Risk assessments such as ours can provide quantitative prioritization rationale for efforts intended to mitigate the impacts of synanthropic species on threatened species.     

Micro-hotspot determination and buffer zone value for Odonata in a globally significant biosphere reserve

Reserves are frequently constrained in design and size by various financial, social or political factors. Maintenance of existing reserves must therefore rely on strategic management practices, and prioritization of conservation activities within them. Identification of global and regional hotspots have been effective for prioritizing conservation activities. Yet, identification of micro-hotspots, or overlapping areas of endemic and rare species that are under threat at the landscape scale, have largely been ignored. From a reserve management point of view, knowledge of critical micro-hotspots within a reserve, are focal points for directing cost effective, conservation initiatives, especially removal of invasive alien plants which are a major threat to biodiversity.Using diversity patterns of dragonfly assemblages, many endemic and threatened, within a biosphere reserve located in the core of a global biodiversity hotspot, we investigated the concept of micro-hotspots. As biosphere reserves contain zones with varying degrees of anthropogenic impact, we also investigated the value of buffer and transition zones for complementing the dragonfly fauna of the reserve core. We found a distinct micro-hotspot within the protected core zone which shows concordance for both endemism and species richness. We conclude that focused conservation actions to remove invasive alien plants within this micro-hotspot would help insure its continued integrity. Furthermore, while there is greater habitat degradation within the buffer and transition zones, they support many additional species, but not those necessarily endemic or threatened. The complementary value of buffer and transition zones therefore lies in increasing habitat heterogeneity and species richness of the whole reserve.     

Habitat correlates of distribution and local population decline of the endemic Sardinian newt Euproctus platycephalus

Habitat-based statistical models relating patterns of presence and absence of species to habitat variables could be useful to resolve conservation-related problems and highlight the causes of population declines. In this paper, we apply such a modelling approach to an endemic amphibian, the Sardinian mountain newt Euproctus platycephalus, considered by IUCN a critically endangered species. Sardinian newts inhabit freshwater habitat in streams, small lakes and pools on the island of Sardinia (Italy). Reported declines of newt populations are not yet supported by quantitative data, however, they are perceived or suspected across the species' historical range. This study represents a first attempt trying to statistically relate habitat characteristics to Sardinian newt occurrence and persistence. Linear regression analysis revealed that newts are more likely to be found in sites with colder water temperature, less riparian vegetation and, marginally, absence of fish. The implications of the results for the conservation of the species are discussed, and suggestions for the short-term management of newt inhabited sites suggested.     

Triage for conserving populations of threatened species: The case of woodland caribou in Alberta

Prioritization of conservation efforts for threatened and endangered species has tended to focus on factors measuring the risk of extirpation rather than the probability of success and cost. Approaches such as triage are advisable when three main conditions are present: insufficient capacity exists to adequately treat all patients, patients are in a critical state and cannot wait until additional capacity becomes available, and patients differ in their likely outcome and/or the amount of treatment they require. The objective of our study was to document the status of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds in Alberta, Canada, with respect to these three conditions and to determine whether a triage approach might be warranted. To do this we modeled three types of recovery effort - protection, habitat restoration, and wolf control - and estimated the opportunity cost of recovery for each herd. We also assessed herds with respect to a suite of factors linked to long-term viability. We found that all but three herds will decline to critical levels (<10 animals) within approximately 30 years if current population trends continue. The opportunity cost of protecting all ranges by excluding new development, in terms of the net present value of petroleum and forestry resources, was estimated to be in excess of 100 billion dollars (assuming no substitution of activity outside of the ranges). A habitat restoration program applied to all ranges would cost several hundred million dollars, and a provincial-scale wolf control program would cost tens of millions of dollars. Recovery costs among herds varied by an order of magnitude. Herds also varied substantially in terms of their potential viability. These findings suggest that woodland caribou in Alberta meet the conditions whereby triage should be considered as an appropriate conservation strategy.     

Large-scale noninvasive genetic monitoring of wolverines using scats reveals density dependent adult survival

Noninvasive genetic monitoring has the potential to estimate vital rates essential for conservation and management of many species. In a long-term genetic capture-mark-recapture study using scats we evaluated temporal variation in adult survival in a wolverine (Gulo gulo) population in southern Norway. In contrast to most previous studies of large mammals we found evidence for negative density dependence in adult survival in this large carnivore. Both sexes showed the same pattern of density dependence, with higher annual survival rates in adult females than males. In addition, we also found an additive mortality effect of harvesting in the population, resulting in the lowest adult survival rates at a combination of high population density and high harvest rate. The additive effects of density and harvest on adult survival of wolverines have relevance to the conservation and management of solitary carnivores with strong intrasexual territoriality, especially for species where combats among conspecifics can cause serious injury or even mortality.     

How to make a common species rare: A case against conservation complacency

A traditional focus in conservation biology has been on rare species as they are often those most at risk of decline or extinction. However, we argue in this paper that some kinds of currently common species also can be susceptible to decline. Those at particular risk are species that are specialized on widespread environmental conditions. Such specialization may make such species vulnerable to a range of drivers of environmental change, placing them at risk of significant decline or even local extinction. We illustrate this with a case study of the arboreal marsupial the Greater Glider (Petauroides volans) in south-eastern Australia. The Greater Glider was formerly common in two large-scale studies but in one it suffered rapid extinction (within a 3 year period) and in another it is declining at an annual rate of 8.8%. We therefore argue for more research to better predict those kinds of currently common species which might be at risk of future rapid decline or extinction. In addition, we suggest there will often be a need to take pro-active conservation and management action to reduce the number of potential environmental stressors on populations of common species to ensure they do not become uncommon or rare. We also argue that conserving common species will ensure the retention of their key ecological and functional roles in ecosystems. Finally, we believe there is a need to develop better monitoring programs that can detect changes in the population trajectories of common species, help identify the reasons for temporal changes in such populations, and underpin timely management interventions. Despite these good intentions, we acknowledge that in one of our own long-term investigations we: (1) failed to anticipate the extremely rapid decline (and likely local extinction) of the Greater Glider, (2) were unable to diagnose the reason/s underpinning the population collapse, and (3) nor were we able to instigate a timely intervention program of management to prevent this from occurring. The key lesson from this sobering result is that common species can sometimes be at risk of rapid decline and it is wise to avoid complacency in conservation.