Using landscape suitability models to reconcile conservation planning for two key forest predators

Protection of area-limited species is an important component of plans to conserve biodiversity, but the habitat needs of such species can be different and important habitats may not align with existing reserves. We used empirically derived landscape suitability models for the spotted owl and the fisher to evaluate the overlap in habitat suitability for these two old forest-associated predators in an area of northern California affected by the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP), a bioregional conservation plan. The area includes designated Wilderness areas and new reserves (Late-Successional Reserves, LSRs) established under the NWFP. We used the site selection algorithm MARXAN to identify priority habitat areas for each species, and for both combined, and to compare these areas with reserves. Sites were selected under two constraints, to achieve a threshold proportion of total habitat value and to select new areas equal to the total current area in existing reserves. The rank correlation between predicted value for the two species was low (0.11), because areas of highest predicted habitat value were more widely distributed for the owl. This difference also meant that the sites selected to optimize habitat value were more aggregated for fishers than owls, resulting in greater overlap of owl habitat and current reserves. To capture 25%, 50% and 75% of total habitat value for the owl required 14.0%, 29.2%, and 47.3% of the planning units, respectively; capturing the same for the fisher required only 5.3%, 13.5%, and 27.2%. A combined owl-fisher scenario resulted in areas that overlapped only ∼50% of existing reserves. The current location of LSRs may not be the best solution to maintaining well-connected habitats for these area-limited species in northwestern California. Whether LSRs are a better solution to protecting the diversity of other lesser-known taxa (i.e., salamanders and mollusks) is the subject of related work.     

Using habitat models to determine conservation priorities for pond-breeding amphibians in a privately-owned landscape of northern Idaho, USA

As rural landscapes experience increasing levels of residential development, the persistence of species that rely on them will depend on informed planning and management decisions. An understanding of habitat requirements is essential for setting priorities and developing landscape-level plans for the survival of these species. In many temperate rural landscapes, artificially created ponds may be the only wetlands available for aquatic reproduction by amphibians. The introduction of non-native fish into these ponds reduces survival and prohibits successful reproduction of many native pond-breeding amphibians. We surveyed 105 randomly selected wetlands in a primarily privately-owned, rural landscape in north Idaho, USA, for pond-breeding amphibian larvae in 2004 and 2005. We used an information theoretic multimodel inference and an algorithmic (random forests) approach to model habitat for each species based on local and landscape characteristics. We also used a mail survey to quantify how landowners value fish in their wetlands and their plans for future wetland development and fish stocking. Sixty-seven percent of pond owners reported that fishing in their pond was at least slightly important to them and 36% of owners indicated that they were at least 50% likely to add fish to their ponds in the next 5-10 years. Landscape change predictions for this area indicate that forests will become more open due to thinning; habitat models indicated that this is likely to be detrimental to long-toed salamanders and beneficial to Pacific treefrogs. Habitat models also indicate that Columbia spotted frog breeding sites consist of wetlands on flat ground with high solar insolation and that this species is sensitive to nearby development, indicating that as this landscape becomes further developed, this species may require habitat protection for persistence.     

Inferring species distributions in the absence of occurrence records: An example considering wolverine (Gulo gulo) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in New Mexico

Information about geographic distributions is required for species conservation and management. Ultimately, this information is derived from records of occurrence. However, the reliability and availability of occurrence records are variable. A conceptual framework for evaluating the reliability of occurrence records is provided. Only records associated with physical evidence, especially a museum voucher specimen, are considered verified. However, errors in species identification or location are possible even for verified records. In addition, biases exist in occurrence records because they generally are collected haphazardly. Other sources of bias include sampling error associated with small areas or range limits and aspects of the species’ biology that make it unlikely to be documented. A practical method is provided for interpreting a species’ distribution in a particular area given a paucity of reliable occurrence records. Factors that must be considered for including such areas of interest within the range of a species include: (1) plausible reason for the paucity of records; (2) continuous suitable habitat between the area of interest and localities of reliable occurrence; and (3) absence of biogeographic breaks in the distribution of other organisms with similar evolutionary histories. The possible distribution of wolverine (Gulo gulo) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in New Mexico provides a case study of this approach. It is concluded that the mountains of north-central New Mexico should be considered within the natural range of wolverine and Canada lynx.     

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species.