Understanding actor-centered adaptation limits in smallholder agriculture in the Central American dry tropics

Adaptations made by agrarian households in the face of global change risks are largely dependent on their livelihood goals. I argue that adaptation-limit research is crucial to many agrarian development programs because a focus on adaptation limits may allow researchers and practitioners to better understand and support successful adaptation and allow smallholders to pursue their goals. In this study of smallholder farming in Northwest Costa Rica, I found that security and the unique parcelero identity of rice farmers in this region define livelihood goals. I show that an understanding of the multidimensionality and fluidity of farmer livelihood goals may enrich our current understanding of actor-centered adaptation limits as insurmountable thresholds. In response to worsening global change risks, farmers in this study traded off certain goals to pursue others. In this way, farmers do not perceive adaptation limits as insurmountable. Alternative indicators of adaptation limits did exist; irreversibility in adaptation and the great hardship associated with tradeoffs among livelihood goals may mark adaptation limits.     

农业电商扶贫可以提升农户的可持续生计吗?——基于农产品上行视角

从农户的发展能力、经济能力和社交能力3方面选取16个指标,运用组合赋权法确定指标权重,构建农户可持续生计评价指标体系,并基于此评估农业电商扶贫的成效。结合文献与实地调研获取的湖北省252份农户(含贫困户与脱贫户)调查数据,先对农户的可持续生计进行测度,然后运用OLS、2SLS、LIML、IVGMM和IV-Tobit共5种回归方法对农业电商扶贫中影响农户可持续生计的因素进行分析,并采用ISM模型分析论证了各影响因素的关联性质和层次结构。结果显示:样本农户的可持续生计水平一般,发展能力和经济能力相对较高,社交能力相对较弱,但这3种能力均未达到中等水平,有待提高。是否参与农业电商、亲戚中有无村干部、公共服务、政府支持和产业基础在农业电商扶贫中对农户的可持续生计具有显著(P<0.1)影响。是否参与农业电商和亲戚中有无村干部是表层直接影响因素,政府支持和产业基础是中层间接影响因素,公共服务是底层因素。因素之间的逻辑层次结构可用“单驱动、双路径”来概括。     

西部典型山区农户的生计状况分析——以四川省宝兴县为例

为揭示山区农户的生计状况,采用可持续生计分析框架,以西部典型山区宝兴县为例,通过实地调研,对不同生计策略农户的生计资本和生计后果进行对比分析,结果表明:1)2次地震对宝兴县农户生计资本的影响主要体现在物质资本和金融资本两方面;2)农为主型生计策略农户的自然资本显著高于非农为主型和非农型农户,但其人力资本和物质资本显著低于后2种农户,不同生计策略农户的金融资本和社会资本差异不显著;3)农为主型生计策略农户的生计后果最差,其陷入贫困的比例最高,对生态环境的不利影响最大。但因其拥有较高的自然资本,可以选择特色农业、生计多样化和参加生态补偿等多种生计发展策略。     

黑竹沟自然保护区农户可持续生计研究

农户生计是"三农"问题的关键之一,探究贫困地区农户脱贫后的生计可持续发展水平,引导贫困地区农户完善生计结构,提高生计可持续性,对于巩固脱贫攻坚成果,促进乡村振兴具有一定的现实意义。以黑竹沟自然保护区农户为研究对象,通过入户访谈和问卷调查,运用熵值法评估农户生计资本状况,采用空间统计学方法分析农户生计资本与生计策略、贫困之间的相关性,得到影响生计策略和贫困的主要影响因子。结果表明:农户的生计资本总值为0.242 1,生计可持续性较低;农户的金融和社会资本值相对较高,物质和自然资本值较低,生计资本整体不平衡;海拔和距中心点距离对农户贫困的发生率存在显著影响;生计策略对农户脱贫具有正向促进作用,受教育程度是影响家庭贫困的主要因素,亲友中的能人数量是影响家庭生计策略的主要因素,受教育程度越高,贫困程度越低,亲友提供帮助对生计策略的转变效果显著。在研究结果的基础上,提出了相应的政策建议,以期为贫困地区生计资本提升、生计策略调整和稳定脱贫提供参考。     

市场经济与社区合作:泰国南奔府有机农业的个案研究

泰国的小农经济在市场化条件下顽强存在的主要原因是当地的社会结构和道德传统依然具有比较强的韧性和稳定性。对泰国南奔府的有机农业进行人类学田野调查发现,小农户在市场化情境中面临销路不稳定、农业劳动力短缺等风险,但是从事有机农业的农民通过有效运用有机农业的种植技术、社区合作网络来缓解这种风险,维护有机农业的价值。在政府政策、市场力量和“互帮互助”“团结协作”道德规范的共同作用下,小农户积极建立社区企业、学习中心等农业合作组织,这既有助于他们在参与市场化的过程中维护生计安全,同时也使这种道德规范开始具有市场经济的特征,焕发出新的生机与活力。此外,小农户的生产实践也有助于维护乡村的社会秩序,传承原有的道德规范。     

Consumer’s stated trust in the food industry and meat purchases

Research indicates that consumers are particularly concerned about the safety of meat. More highly processed meat is perceived as more unsafe than fresh or natural meats, i.e., consumers trust processed meat less. This paper studies the relationship between perceived trust and day-to-day purchase behavior for meat, giving special attention to the degree of meat processing. Controlling for trust in food chain actors and demographic and socio-economic variables, actual meat purchases of Canadian households are linked to answers from a commissioned food attitudes survey completed by the same households. Expenditures for processed and total meat (but not for fresh meat) are significantly different by three levels of trust in the food industry. Consumer with the lowest trust levels consume less (especially of processed meat) compared to those with higher trust levels. However, in a multivariate setting, trust shows no effect on fresh or processed meat purchases with or without demographic and socio-economic control variables, suggesting that the impact of trust on meat purchases is only small. However, the low trusting consumer segment could potentially be a target for marketing strategies focused on reputation and quality to increase sales in this particular group.     

一种基于广义传递闭包的信任评估模型TREM

提出了一个基于信任路径的信任关系评估模型．该模型根据用户之间信任关系度量值和信任经验得出信任评估结果，然后将其递归地应用于计算其他用户的信任组合值，形成信任关系的完整集合．从实验结果来看，该模型适合于信任状态信息的收集和评估的自动化实现，信任评估过程对于噪声和恶意用户而言是健壮的，信任评估结果较为客观地反映出信任关系的多变性、不确定性和互依赖性．     

A climate for commerce: the political agronomy of conservation agriculture in Zambia

The promotion of conservation agriculture (CA) for smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa is subject to ongoing scholarly and public debate regarding the evidence-base and the agenda-setting power of involved stakeholders. We undertake a political analysis of CA in Zambia that combines a qualitative case study of a flagship CA initiative with a quantitative analysis of a nationally representative dataset on agricultural practices. This analysis moves from an investigation of the knowledge politics to a study of how the political agendas of the actors involved are shaping agrarian practices. From its initial focus on CA as soil conservation and sustainable agriculture, the framing of the initiative has evolved to accommodate shifting trends in the policy arena. In tandem with the increased focus on climate adaptation, we see an increased emphasis on private sector-led modernisation. The initiative has shifted its target group from the poorest smallholders to prospective commercial farmers, and has forged connections between its farmer-to-farmer extension network and private input suppliers and service providers. The link between CA and input intensification is reflected in national statistics as a significantly higher usage of herbicides, pesticides and mineral fertilizer on fields under CA tillage compared to other fields. We argue that the environmental and participation agendas are used to buttress CA as an environmentally and socially sustainable agricultural development strategy, while the prevailing practice is the result of a common vision for a private sector-led agricultural development shared between the implementing organisation, the donor and international organisations promoting a new green revolution in Africa.     

气候变化感知对农户生计策略的影响——基于云南省农村居民调查数据

为理清气候变化感知影响农户生计的基本路径和内在逻辑,本研究基于云南省昭通市大山包镇农户调查数据,应用偏最小二乘结构方程模型分析气候变化感知对其生计策略的影响。结果表明：1)气候变化感知对农业生计策略具有显著负面影响,但对非农业策略呈现显著正向影响;2)气候变化感知同时通过适应性行为这一中介变量间接影响生计策略,进一步推动农业生计策略向非农化方向发展;3)气候变化感知对生计策略的影响路径表现出明显的农户个人因素差异和农业生产环境差异,风险喜好型和信息获取能力较强的农户群体更倾向于调整和转变生计策略,存在农业补贴和农业基础设施较完备时农户倾向于坚持农业生计策略。本研究能够为政府制定针对性更强的气候变化政策、提升农户可持续生计能力提供一定参考。     

Climate change and Chinese farmers: Perceptions and determinants of adaptive strategies

Farmers' perceptions, beliefs, adaptive strategies, and barriers regarding climate change are critical to promoting sustainable ecosystems and societal stability. This paper is based on an extensive survey of 1 500 farmers and their households in Henan Province in China during 2013–2014. Henan is the largest agricultural province in China with over 51 million farmers. The survey results showed that approximately 57% of the respondents perceived the direct impact of climate change during the past 10 years, with 70.3% believing that climate change posed a risk to their livelihood. Not surprisingly, most farmers reported that they have adopted new measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The main barriers hindering farmers' adopting adaptation measures were lack of funds and timely information. A multinomial logit model revealed that land ownership, knowledge of crop variety and the causes of climate change, as well as the belief of climate change, were all positively related to the likelihood of employing adaptive strategies. Moreover, the percentage of households engaging in agriculture activity, and years of engaging in farming were both negatively correlated with famer's likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. More importantly, farmers with high incomes were less likely to adopt adaptive strategies and more willing to engage in other business activities. In conclusion, it is important to communicate climate change related information and government policies in rural areas, promote farmer associations and other educational outreach efforts to assist Chinese farmers to deal with climate change.     

TOWARD SUSTAINABLE MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR SMALLHOLDERS THROUGH OPTIMIZED STRATEGIES IN NORTH CHINA

● County-level sustainability assessment of maize production is presented. ● County-level improvement potential exhibits a large spatial heterogeneity. ● Promoting technical innovations can facilitate China’s agricultural transition. Agricultural production by smallholders is crucial for ensuring food provision in China. However, smallholders face a series of challenges on their farms including high-to-excess resource inputs, low use efficiency, as well as negative environmental impacts, which may be unfavorable for sustainable agriculture production. This study developed a county-level sustainability assessment of maize production in Hebei, China, by applying multiple data sources in combination with emergy, carbon footprint, nitrogen footprint and cost-benefit analyses. Scenario analysis was applied to explore the localized implementation strategies to achieve the sustainable farming system. The results show that the average emergy sustainability index (ESI) of maize at 2.31 is relatively low. The average greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses are 0.15 g·kcal⁻¹ CO₂-eq and 3.75 mg·kcal⁻¹ N, respectively. The average cost and net income are 12,700 and 4340 CNY·ha⁻¹, respectively. These results indicate a great potential to improve the environmental-economic sustainability of the maize production system of smallholders. In addition, the environmental and economic indicators calculated from the maize production show a substantial spatial heterogeneity among counties, indicating a requirement for different optimization strategies to improve the environment-economy sustainability at a finer scale. Based on the multiple scenario analysis, optimal strategies targeting each county are proposed. By adopting the optimal strategies, the average ESI and net income could increase by 32% and 83%, respectively, and the average GHG emissions and Nr losses reduce by 33% and 35%, respectively. These findings provide an important reference for adopting different strategies to achieve environment-economy sustainability for smallholders production systems with diverse landscapes in North China and propose a transition pathway toward achieving agriculture sustainability for smallholders worldwide.     

失地农民的生计资本与生计策略关系研究——以陕西省杨凌区为例

以可持续生计框架为研究基础,失地农民的生计资产为框架核心,通过建立二元logistic模型,对失地农民的生计资本状况和生计策略及二者之间的关系进行初步研究。结果表明,在人力资本中,年龄和受教育年限对失地农民选择以创业为主的生计策略有显著影响;在社会资本中,婚姻状况、经常联系的朋友个数和可以借款的人数与失地农民选择以创业为主的生计策略呈正相关关系;在金融资本中,家庭总收入是影响失地农民选择以创业为主的生计策略的重要因素。在控制变量中,原房屋是否拆迁与失地农民选择以创业为主的生计策略呈负相关关系。     

家庭生命周期、社会资本与农户生计策略研究

基于家庭生命周期视角,采用农户实地调查数据,运用Mlogit回归模型,分析社会资本对农户生计策略产生的影响。结果表明:湖北农村家庭的兼业化程度较高,家庭结构呈现"纺锤形"分布,社会资本积累会促使农户选择偏非农型的生计策略。通过检验社会资本的影响机制,发现社会资本在家庭生命周期对生计策略的影响中既存在调节作用,又存在部分中介作用,其中介效应的大小为35.2%。为促进农户生计多样化,加强农户抗风险能力,防止生命周期阶段两端的家庭遭受生计风险,建议政府通过职业教育或者技能培训提高农户的人力资本,加强对农户资金、贷款方面的支持,扩大农户的社会网络。     

基于就业市场导向的数字图书馆馆藏资源推荐研究

就业问题是当今社会的重大民生问题,很多待业者不知道如何选择工作,不知道自己的理想工作所要学习的知识有哪些?而图书馆具有信息组织优势、信息管理优势、信息咨询优势和对海量招聘信息分析研究的能力。图书馆可以针对就业的个性化服务,构建基于就业市场导向的馆藏资源组织体系,并运用一些数据挖掘和智能Web算法,为用户推荐最新、最符合当前市场需求的职业技能馆藏资源,帮助用户提升就业能力,还可以提高馆藏资源的利用率,提升图书馆个性化服务水平。     

农地转出行为是否会改变农民家庭的生计策略——基于CFPS微观数据的DID模型估计

在合理筛选控制变量和对农户生计策略类型进行细分的基础上,基于CFPS两期全国整合样本的面板数据,运用倍差法及倾向得分匹配倍差法,实证检验农地转出对农户生计策略产生的影响。结果表明:农地转出对农户采取农业型和农兼型生计策略产生了显著负向作用,对非农型生计策略的选择具有正向推动作用,而对兼农型生计策略的影响效应有限,没有通过显著性检验,说明农户可以通过调整自家的生计策略适应农地转出所引起的变化。另外,通过多种匹配方法对估计结果进行检验,证实估计结果具有稳定性和可靠性。建议今后在尊重农民意愿的基础上,加大对农地流转政策的支持力度。依据不同类型家庭的实际需求,为农户制定适宜自身发展的差异化鼓励政策,带动发展具有当地特色且真正属于农民自己的非农“产业”,实现农地转出户生计的可持续发展。     

基于信任的无线传感器网络信息传播模型研究

提出一种基于信任的无线传感器网络信息传播模型.结合生物学中的Logistic模型以及信任策略,建立无线传感器网络的信息传播模型,并在信息传播模型的基础上,对激励策略进行分析,提出相应的激励策略.模拟试验表明,该模型可有效地提高整个无线传感器网络的信任水平,并加快信息传播速度.     

农牧交错区农牧户生计与土地利用问题研究——以内蒙古科尔沁左翼后旗农户调研为例

基于问卷调查、数理统计等方法,利用科左后旗农牧户的调研数据,研究农牧交错区农牧户生计策略与土地利用状况。结果表明:1)农业依旧是当地最主要的生计来源,农户生计与土地利用状况与区域自然环境有密切联系,水土条件差、蒙族聚集的区域,农户生计以种养结合为主,土地利用的投入集约度偏低;而土壤条件好,降雨充沛的区域,农户生计以种植为主,土地利用投入集约度明显较高。2)不同自然条件下的农户家庭生计策略选择对土地利用的影响趋同,表现为农户的土地投入集约度随种植业收入占家庭收入比例的升高有明显变大的趋势。3)农户在土地利用过程中仍然存在开垦行为,这种行为在自然条件较差的区域表现的更加显著。基于以上分析,以减少农户对自然环境的依赖,提高生计水平为目标,采取分区、分对象的手段提出了相应的政策建议。     

华北高唐地区4种常见树木叶片水力学和等水特性分析

[目的]研究相同环境中不同树种采取的水分适应策略多样性,为适地适树造林提供参考.[方法]在山东省高唐地区选取分别在根系分布深度、材性和生长速度方面有着较大差异的4个典型适生树种,元宝枫、紫叶李、毛白杨和刺槐.比较了4个树种叶片的水力学特性和等水评价,其中水力学特性包括栓塞脆弱性参数,压力?容积(PV)曲线参数,水力结构...     

生计转型背景下蒙古族生态移民非农生计策略选择及困境分析

利用内蒙古包头市7个牧区生态移民安置区的移民调查数据,采用生态移民认知和统计描述等方法实证分析牧区生态移民非农生计策略选择及困境问题。研究表明:生态移民以从事临时性无手艺打工为主要非农生计策略,而女性以及以小学和初中文化程度为主的生态移民选择失业的比重比较高;生态移民非农生计策略选择重点依赖于自己;在非农生计策略选择中往往会遇到工资少、缺技术、打工机会、知识缺乏、资金短缺、社会关系缺乏、语言沟通困难、缺乏带头人以及缺乏企业等困难。笔者认为,为提高生态移民在非自愿迁移背景下非农生计策略的转型能力,应该建立移民非农就业机构,根据生态移民性别、教育程度以及劳动能力,采取适合的产业选择、二三产业就业培训、安置区内外转移相结合方式以及当地特色农畜产品加工产业链条延长等措施,实现生计转型背景下的生态移民可持续发展。     

Does Internet use promote the adoption of agricultural technology? Evidence from 1 449 farm households in 14 Chinese provinces

China is characterized as ‘a large country with many smallholder farmers’ whose participation in modern agriculture is key to the country's modern agriculture development. Promoting smallholder farmers’ adoption of modern agricultural production technology is one effective way to improve the capabilities of smallholder farmers. This paper aims to explore the impact of Internet use on the adoption of agricultural production technology by smallholder farmers based on a survey of 1 449 smallholders across 14 provinces in China. The results suggest that Internet use can significantly promote technology adoption, with the probability of adopting new crop varieties, water-saving irrigation technology and straw-returning technology increasing by 0.200, 0.157 and 0.155, respectively. Furthermore, the effect of Internet use is found to be heterogeneous with a greater effect on smallholder farmers having low education levels, limited training, and high incomes. To increase agricultural production technology adoption by smallholders, rural Internet infrastructure and Internet use promotion should be the focus for the Chinese government.