Recommendations for Development of Resilience-Based State-and-Transition Models

The objective of this paper is to recommend conceptual modifications for incorporation in state-and-transition models (STMs) to link this framework explicitly to the concept of ecological resilience. Ecological resilience describes the amount of change or disruption that is required to transform a system from being maintained by one set of mutually reinforcing processes and structures to a different set of processes and structures (e.g., an alternative stable state). In light of this concept, effective ecosystem management must focus on the adoption of management practices and policies that maintain or enhance ecological resilience to prevent stable states from exceeding thresholds. Resilience management does not exclusively focus on identifying thresholds per se, but rather on within-state dynamics that influence state vulnerability or proximity to thresholds. Resilience-based ecosystem management provides greater opportunities to incorporate adaptive management than does threshold-based management because thresholds emphasize limits of state resilience, rather than conditions that determine the probability that these limits will be surpassed. In an effort to further promote resilience-based management, we recommend that the STM framework explicitly describe triggers, at-risk communities, feedback mechanisms, and restoration pathways and develop process-specific indicators that enable managers to identify at-risk plant communities and potential restoration pathways. Two STMs representing different ecological conditions and geographic locations are presented to illustrate the incorporation and application of these recommendations. We anticipate that these recommendations will enable STMs to capture additional ecological information and contribute to improved ecosystem management by focusing attention on the maintenance of state resilience in addition to the anticipation of thresholds. Adoption of these recommendations may promote valuable dialogue between researchers and ecosystem managers regarding the general nature of ecosystem dynamics.     

Understanding Change: Integrating Rancher Knowledge Into State-and-Transition Models

Arid and semiarid rangelands often behave unpredictably in response to management actions and environmental stressors, making it difficult for ranchers to manage for long-term sustainability. State-and-transition models (STMs) depict current understanding of vegetation responses to management and environmental change in box-and-arrow diagrams. They are based on existing knowledge of the system and can be improved with long-term ecological monitoring data, histories, and experimentation. Rancher knowledge has been integrated in STMs; however, there has been little systematic analysis of how ranchers describe vegetation change, how their knowledge informs model components, and what opportunities and challenges exist for integrating local knowledge into STMs. Semistructured and field interviews demonstrated that rancher knowledge is valuable for providing detailed management histories and identifying management-defined states for STMs. Interviews with ranchers also provided an assessment of how ranchers perceive vegetation change, information about the causes of transitions, and indicators of change. Interviews placed vegetation change within a broader context of social and economic history, including regional changes in land use and management. Despite its potential utility, rancher knowledge is often heterogeneous and partial and can be difficult to elicit. Ranchers’ feedback pointed to limitations in existing ecological site-based approaches to STM development, especially issues of spatial scale, resolution, and interactions among adjacent vegetation types. Incorporating local knowledge into STM development may also increase communication between researchers and ranchers, potentially yielding more management-relevant research and more structured ways to document and learn from the evolving experiential knowledge of ranchers.     

State-and-Transition Models for Heterogeneous Landscapes: A Strategy for Development and Application

Interpretation of assessment and monitoring data requires information about how reference conditions and ecological resilience vary in space and time. Reference conditions used as benchmarks are often specified via potential-based land classifications (e.g., ecological sites) that describe the plant communities potentially observed in an area based on soil and climate. State-and-transition models (STMs) coupled to ecological sites specify indicators of ecological resilience and thresholds. Although general concepts surrounding STMs and ecological sites have received increasing attention, strategies to apply and quantify these concepts have not. In this paper, we outline concepts and a practical approach to potential-based land classification and STM development. Quantification emphasizes inventory techniques readily available to natural resource professionals that reveal processes interacting across spatial scales. We recommend a sequence of eight steps for the co-development of ecological sites and STMs, including 1) creation of initial concepts based on literature and workshops; 2) extensive, low-intensity traverses to refine initial concepts and to plan inventory; 3) development of a spatial hierarchy for sampling based on climate, geomorphology, and soils; 4) stratified medium-intensity inventory of plant communities and soils across a broad extent and with large sample sizes; 5) storage of plant and soil data in a single database; 6) model-building and analysis of inventory data to test initial concepts; 7) support and/or refinement of concepts; and 8) high-intensity characterization and monitoring of states. We offer a simple example of how data assembled via our sequence are used to refine ecological site classes and STMs. The linkage of inventory to expert knowledge and site-based mechanistic experiments and monitoring provides a powerful means for specifying management hypotheses and, ultimately, promoting resilience in grassland, shrubland, savanna, and forest ecosystems.     

Generalized and Specific State-and-Transition Models to Guide Management and Restoration of Caldenal Forests

Management impacts and natural events can produce ecosystem state changes that are difficult to reverse. In such cases, a detailed understanding of drivers, thresholds, and feedback mechanisms are needed to design restoration interventions. The Caldenal ecoregion in central Argentina has undergone widespread state change, and restoration is urgently needed, but as yet there has been no knowledge synthesis to support restoration actions. In this paper, we provide evidence-based guidelines for ecological restoration of the Caldenal forest derived from a general to local conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics. We develop a Caldenal forest state transition model based on a generalized fire-mediated savanna-woodland transition model. The generalized model depicts global similarities in fire-grass feedback loops as a primary factor controlling savanna to woodland transition (thicketization) in semiarid savannas around the world. An open forest is considered to be the reference state of the Caldenal that developed under a historical regime of frequent low-intensity fire. The introduction of large livestock herds in the region disrupted the positive fire-grass feedback loop and increased dispersal and recruitment of Prosopis caldenia, creating conditions for thicketization of the forest. Controlled, low-intensity fire can be used to build the resilience of an open forest state. Restoring open forest states from woodland states requires a large-scale selective thinning and pruning operation. Long-term restoration requires breaking the positive livestock-thicketization ? high-intensity fire feedback and reestablishing the positive grass-low intensity fire feedback to ensure the persistence of a restored open forest state.     

An Assessment of State-and-Transition Models: Perceptions Following Two Decades of Development and Implementation

State-and-transition models (STMs) are being developed for many areas in the United States and represent an important tool for assessing and managing public and private rangelands. Substantial resources have been invested in model development, yet minimal efforts have been made to evaluate the utility of STMs for rangeland assessment and management. We interviewed 47 rangeland professionals, equally divided between managers and researchers, in four ecoregions to determine their perceptions of the purpose, development, and strengths and weaknesses of STMs to assess the status of the STM framework. Our analysis identified three primary perspectives regarding the purpose of STMs: a decision-making tool for land managers, a means to represent the complex dynamics of rangeland ecosystems, and an effective communication tool. These diverse views of STM purposes were associated with differing perspectives concerning model development that identified five major issues in need of further development and refinement: 1) the relative importance of management practices and ecological processes in driving transitions, 2) the criteria used to define thresholds, 3) the appropriate level of model complexity, 4) the respective roles of expert knowledge and ecological data in model development, and 5) processes for model review and revision. We recommend greater dialogue among researchers and managers to further clarify STM terminology and develop standard protocols for model development and validation. Mechanisms are critically needed to assure peer review and revision of existing models so that STMs are continually updated to reflect current understanding of rangeland dynamics.     

Monitoring British Upland Ecosystems With the Use of Landscape Structure as an Indicator for State-and-Transition Models

Remote sensing and landscape ecology concepts can provide a useful framework for state-and-transition models (STM) in order to quantify thresholds at different scales, and provide useful information for scientists, land managers, and conservationists in relation to resilience management. The overall aim of this research was to develop a spatially explicit STM to quantify thresholds based on the scale of disturbance processes impacting a grazing system. Specific objectives were to develop a conceptual STM framework for upland grazing ecosystems, to quantify spatial dynamics of stable and degraded pastures, and to assess threshold occurrence. Color aerial photography from Armboth Fell in the English Lake District National Park (United Kingdom) was classified into bare rock, dwarf shrub heath (DSH), and grassland/degraded wet heath (GDWH) in four pastures with different degrees of grazing pressure. Vegetation communities from these pastures were combined with soils, climate, and landform data to create a conceptual STM framework. Each pasture was sampled with 2-ha plots to quantify DSH and GDWH spatial structure. The proposed STM consisted of two reference and three alternative states. Low–grazing-pressure areas showed significantly higher percentage of DSH cover with larger contiguous patches and lower patch density than high–grazing-pressure areas. Breakpoints, considered to be thresholds, in mean patch area were identified in our data when DSH percentage cover was < 63% and GDWH, > 77%. The present study has shown the value of a robust, reliable, and repeatable approach to identify landscape dynamics and integrate it with field data to inform a conceptual STM framework for upland grazing ecosystems. It also demonstrates the importance of selecting scales relevant to the predominant disturbance process to test for threshold occurrence, and how this approach can be integrated with current assessment methods for resilience management.     

Using Participatory Workshops to Integrate State-and-Transition Models Created With Local Knowledge and Ecological Data

State-and-transition models (STMs) depict current understanding of vegetation dynamics and are being created for most ecological sites in the United States. Model creation is challenging due to inadequate long-term data, and most STMs rely on expert knowledge. There has been little systematic documentation of how different types of knowledge have been integrated in STMs, or what these distinct knowledge sources offer. We report on a series of participatory workshops where stakeholders helped to integrate STMs developed for the same region using local knowledge and ecological field data. With this exploratory project, we seek to understand what kinds of information local knowledge and ecological field data can provide to STMs, assess workshops as a method of integrating knowledge and evaluate how different stakeholders perceive models created with different types of knowledge. Our analysis is based on meeting notes, comments on draft models, and workshop evaluation questionnaires. We conclude that local knowledge and ecological data can complement one another, providing different types of information at different spatial and temporal scales. Participants reported that the workshop increased their knowledge of STMs and vegetation dynamics, suggesting that engaging potential model users in developing STMs is an effective outreach and education approach. Agency representatives and ranchers expressed the value of both the local knowledge and data-driven models. Agency participants were likely to critique or add components based on monitoring data or prior research, and ranchers were more likely to add states and transitions based on personal experience. As STM development continues, it is critical that range professionals think systematically about what different forms of data might contribute to model development, how we can best integrate existing knowledge and data to create credible and useful models, and how to validate the resulting STMs.     

A Process-Based Application of State-and-Transition Models: A Case Study of Western Juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) Encroachment

A threshold represents a point in space and time at which primary ecological processes degrade beyond the ability to self-repair. In ecosystems with juniper (Juniperus L. spp.) encroachment, ecological processes (i.e., infiltration) are impaired as intercanopy plant structure degrades during woodland expansion. The purpose of this research is to characterize influences of increasing juniper on vegetation structure and hydrologic processes in mountain big sagebrush–western juniper (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. subsp. vaseyana [Rydb.] Beetle–Juniperus occidentalis Hook.) communities and to identify and predict states and thresholds. Intercanopy plant cover and infiltration rates were sampled in relation to juniper canopy cover. Study plots, arranged in a randomized complete-block design, represented low shrub–high juniper, moderate shrub–moderate juniper, and high shrub–low juniper percentage of canopy cover levels at four primary aspects. In field plots, percentage of plant cover, bare ground, and steady-state infiltration rates were measured. In the laboratory, juniper canopy cover and topographic position were calculated for the same area using high-resolution aerial imagery and digital elevation data. Parametric and multivariate analyses differentiated vegetation states and associated abiotic processes. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis identified significant changes in infiltration rate and plant structure from which threshold occurrence was predicted. Infiltration rates and percentage of bare ground were strongly correlated (r² = 0.94). Bare ground was highest in low shrub–high juniper cover plots compared to both moderate and high shrub–low juniper cover levels on south-, east-, and west-facing sites. Multivariate tests indicated a distinct shift in plant structure and infiltration rates from moderate to low shrub–high juniper cover, suggesting a transition across an abiotic threshold. On north-facing slopes, bare ground remained low, irrespective of juniper cover. Land managers can use this approach to anticipate and identify thresholds at various landscape positions.     

Evaluating a State-and-Transition Model Using a Long-Term Dataset

State-and-transition models (STMs) are used in natural resource management to describe ecological site scale response to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. STMs are primarily based for expert opinion and literature reviews, lacking analytical testing to support vegetation community dynamics, thresholds, and state changes. We developed a unique approach, combining ordination and permutation MANOVA (perMANOVA) with raw data interpretation, to examine vegetation data structure and identify thresholds for a STM. We used a long-term monitoring dataset for an ecological site on the Santa Rita Experimental Range, Arizona. Basal cover of perennial grasses and canopy cover of shrubs and cacti were measured on permanent transects beginning in 1957. Data were grouped by drivers identified by the STM including species invasion, grazing, drought, and mesquite treatment. Ordination by nonmetric multidimensional scaling described the structure of the data. PerMANOVA was used to test for differences between groups of sample units. Analyses of combined key species (Lehmann's lovegrass and mesquite [Prosopis velutina Woot.]) and nonkey species patterns demonstrated an irreversible transition and occurrence of a structural threshold due to Lehmann's lovegrass invasion, as well as a short-term reversible transition (restoration pathway) following mesquite treatment. Sensitivity analysis, in which key species were removed from the dataset, showed that the relative composition of nonkey species did not differ between states previously defined by the key species. This apparent disconnect between dynamics of key and nonkey species may be related to changes in the functional attributes that were not monitored during this time series. Our analyses suggest that, for this ecological site, transition to a Lehmann's lovegrass state occurs when basal cover of this species exceeds 1–2%, which often occurs within 6 yr of its arrival. Evaluation of the restoration pathway showed a recrossing of the threshold within 6 yr of treatment and when mesquite canopy cover exceeded 10%.     

Simulating Current Successional Trajectories in Sagebrush Ecosystems With Multiple Disturbances Using a State-and-Transition Modeling Framework

Disturbances and their interactions play major roles in sagebrush (Artemisia spp. L.) community dynamics. Although impacts of some disturbances, most notably fire, have been quantified at the landscape level, some have been ignored and rarely are interactions between disturbances evaluated. We developed conceptual state-and-transition models for each of two broad sagebrush groups—a warm-dry group characterized by Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. subsp. wyomingensis Beetle & Young) communities and a cool-moist group characterized by mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. subsp. vaseyana [Rydb.] Beetle) communities. We used the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool to explore how the abundance of community phases and states in each conceptual model might be affected by fire, insect outbreak, drought, snow mold, voles, sudden drops in winter temperatures (freeze-kill), livestock grazing, juniper (Juniperus occidentalis var. occidentalis Hook.) expansion, nonnative annual grasses such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), and vegetation treatments. Changes in fuel continuity and loading resulted in average fire rotations of 12 yr in the warm-dry sagebrush group and 81 yr in the cool-moist sagebrush group. Model results in the warm-dry sagebrush group indicated postfire seeding success alone was not sufficient to limit the area of cheatgrass domination. The frequency of episodes of very high utilization by domestic livestock during severe drought was a key influence on community phase abundance in our models. In the cool-moist sagebrush group, model results indicated at least 10% of the juniper expansion area should be treated annually to keep juniper in check. Regardless, juniper seedlings and saplings would remain abundant.     

某型飞机襟翼机构显示动力学仿真研究

本文通过Hyper Woks软件对某型飞机襟翼机构进行显示动力学分析,通过采用RADIOSS求解器,利用中心差分法,成功得到襟翼运动机构在气动载荷下的运动情况,验证滑轮与滑轨之间运动方式。