Changing climate: geothermal evidence from permafrost in the alaskan arctic

Temperature profiles measured in permafrost in northernmost Alaska usually have anomalous curvature in the upper 100 meters or so. When analyzed by heat-conduction theory, the profiles indicate a variable but widespread secular warming of the permafrost surface, generally in the range of 2 to 4 Celsius degrees during the last few decades to a century. Although details of the climatic change cannot be resolved with existing data, there is little doubt of its general magnitude and timing; alternative explanations are limited by the fact that heat transfer in cold permafrost is exclusively by conduction. Since models of greenhouse warming predict climatic change will be greatest in the Arctic and might already be in progress, it is prudent to attempt to understand the rapidly changing thermal regime in this region.     

大兴安岭林区冻土及湿地对生态环境的作用

为研究中国大兴安岭林区生态环境问题 ,作者对大兴安岭林区高纬度多年冻土区的冻土、冻土地带的湿地和森林的生长状况进行了调研及现地考察 .结果表明 :大兴安岭的冻土退化、原始湿地萎缩和新生湿地扩张将会对大兴安岭的森林及环境造成威胁 .作者认为气候变暖和人为活动是冻土退化的主要原因 ,气候变暖和森林破坏 (大面积采伐或森林火灾 )导致冻土退化 ,不但影响冻土上层的原始湿地 ,也导致新生湿地的扩张 ,林地被湿地取代 ,形成恶性循环 .建议对冻土、湿地、森林的相互制约机理进行长期定位观测研究     

Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change

Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1 degrees C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.     

A terminal mesozoic "greenhouse": lessons from the past

The late Mesozoic rock and life records implicate short-term (up to 10(5) to 10(6) years) global warming resulting from carbon dioxide-induced "greenhouse" conditions in the late Maestrichtian extinctions that terminated the Mesozoic Era. Oxygen isotope data from marine microfossils suggest late Mesozoic climatic cooling into middle Maestrichtian, and warming thereafter into the Cenozoic. Animals adapting to climatic cooling could not adapt to sudden warming. Small calcareous marine organisms would have suffered solution effects of carbon dioxide-enriched waters; animals dependent upon them for food would also have been affected. The widespread terrestrial tropical floras would likely not have reflected effects of a slight climatic warming. In late Mesozoic, the deep oceanic waters may have been triggered into releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in a chain reaction of climatic warming and carbon dioxide expulsion. These conditions may be duplicated by human combustion of the fossil fuels and by forest clearing.     

The Relationship Between Vegetation Characteristics and Altitudes in Transitional Permafrost Zone in Xidatan,Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Many studies showed that permafrost has profound influence on alpine ecosystem. However, former researches were mainly focused on typical points by temporal scales. There were few studies about the correlation between vegetation characteristics and different altitudes covering a large region in spatial pattern, especially in transitional permafrost(TP). There were continuous permafrost(CP) discontinuous permafrost(DCP) and seasonal frozen ground(SFG) in this study region. The types of permafrost changed from SFG to DCP, and finally become CP as the altitudes of Xidatan increase. In this paper, 112 845 points interpreted by HJ1-B(environment and disaster monitoring and prediction small satellite constellation), vegetation investigation points, thawing layer thickness research sites, ground temperature and water content observation plots were used to examine the spatial pattern of vegetation which were located in different altitudes in Xidatan, a typical TP region, in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Vegetation characteristics, soil moisture content(SMC) and thaw depths were collected in 15 August to 25 August2012. Characteristics of vegetation were mainly represented by fractional vegetation cover(FVC) derived from the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), as well as above ground biomass(AGB). In this paper, we analyzed that the distinction of vegetation characteristics in each range through statistics data. These ranges were divided by varied altitudes. For examples, the ranges were divided into 50 m or 100 m. In this study we use a large area plots method to further discuss the relationship between the features of vegetation and the different regions of permafrost based on altitudes shifts in Xidatan. A diagram described the vegetation characteristics variability with rising altitudes in transitional permafrost region was drawn in this paper. Our results illustrated the FVCs first increased in SFG region and then decreased in DCP zone slowly, and in CP region FVCs soared then dropped dramatically. With the altitudes increased, the curve of FVCs indicated a parabolic distribution except a little difference in the first 200 m range.     

The Relationship Between Vegetation Characteristics and Altitudes in Transitional Permafrost Zone in Xidatan,Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Many studies showed that permafrost has profound influence on alpine ecosystem. However, former researches were mainly focused on typical points by temporal scales. There were few studies about the correlation between vegetation characteristics and different altitudes covering a large region in spatial pattern, especially in transitional permafrost(TP). There were continuous permafrost(CP) discontinuous permafrost(DCP) and seasonal frozen ground(SFG) in this study region. The types of permafrost changed from SFG to DCP, and finally become CP as the altitudes of Xidatan increase. In this paper, 112 845 points interpreted by HJ1-B(environment and disaster monitoring and prediction small satellite constellation), vegetation investigation points, thawing layer thickness research sites, ground temperature and water content observation plots were used to examine the spatial pattern of vegetation which were located in different altitudes in Xidatan, a typical TP region, in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Vegetation characteristics, soil moisture content(SMC) and thaw depths were collected in 15 August to 25 August2012. Characteristics of vegetation were mainly represented by fractional vegetation cover(FVC) derived from the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), as well as above ground biomass(AGB). In this paper, we analyzed that the distinction of vegetation characteristics in each range through statistics data. These ranges were divided by varied altitudes. For examples, the ranges were divided into 50 m or 100 m. In this study we use a large area plots method to further discuss the relationship between the features of vegetation and the different regions of permafrost based on altitudes shifts in Xidatan. A diagram described the vegetation characteristics variability with rising altitudes in transitional permafrost region was drawn in this paper. Our results illustrated the FVCs first increased in SFG region and then decreased in DCP zone slowly, and in CP region FVCs soared then dropped dramatically. With the altitudes increased, the curve of FVCs indicated a parabolic distribution except a little difference in the first 200 m range.     

Infrared speckle observations of io: an eruption in the loki region

Speckle observations of Jupiter's satellite Io at a wavelength of 5 micrometers during July 1984 resolved the disk and showed emission from a hot spot in the Loki region. The hot spot contributed a flux approximately equal to 60 percent of that from the disk. Images reconstructed by means of the Knox-Thompson algorithm showed the spot moving across the disk as the satellite rotated. It was located at 301 degrees +/- 6 degrees west longitude, 10 degrees +/- 6 degrees north latitude, and had a radiance of (2.96 +/- 0.54) x 10(22) ergs sec(-1) cm(-1) sr(-1)/A where A is the area of the spot. For an assumed temperature of 400 K, the area of the source would be 11,400 square kilometers. An active "lava lake" similar to that seen by Voyager may be the source of the infrared emission.     

Ancient permafrost and a future, warmer Arctic

Climate models predict extensive and severe degradation of permafrost in response to global warming, with a potential for release of large volumes of stored carbon. However, the accuracy of these models is difficult to evaluate because little is known of the history of permafrost and its response to past warm intervals of climate. We report the presence of relict ground ice in subarctic Canada that is greater than 700,000 years old, with the implication that ground ice in this area has survived past interglaciations that were warmer and of longer duration than the present interglaciation.     

Eocene El Niño: evidence for robust tropical dynamics in the "hothouse"

Much uncertainty surrounds the interactions between the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and long-term global change. Past periods of extreme global warmth, exemplified by the Eocene (55 to 35 million years ago), provide a good testing ground for theories for this interaction. Here, we compare Eocene coupled climate model simulations with annually resolved variability records preserved in lake sediments. The simulations show Pacific deep-ocean and high-latitude surface warming of approximately 10 degrees C but little change in the tropical thermocline structure, atmosphere-ocean dynamics, and ENSO, in agreement with proxies. This result contrasts with theories linking past and future "hothouse" climates with a shift toward a permanent El Ni?o-like state.     

The persistently variable "background" stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change

Recent measurements demonstrate that the "background" stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about -0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about -0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.     

Multidecadal changes in the vertical temperature structure of the tropical troposphere

Trends in global lower tropospheric temperature derived from satellite observations since 1979 show less warming than trends based on surface meteorological observations. Independent radiosonde observations of surface and tropospheric temperatures confirm that, since 1979, there has been greater warming at the surface than aloft in the tropics. Associated lapse-rate changes show a decrease in the static stability of the atmosphere, which exceeds unforced static stability variations in climate simulations with state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The differential temperature trends and lapse-rate changes seen during the satellite era are not sustained back to 1960.     

冻土退化对格拉管道运行的影响及其防治措施

分析了青藏高原冻土地温的变化规律,指出随着青藏高原气候变暖致使格拉管道沿线冻土退化加剧,多数管段的埋设位置已不再是含水量小、冻胀和融沉敏感性较小的"弱冻胀层"。针对格拉管道途经区域冻土承载能力下降,管道融化下沉加剧,季节融化层加厚,冻胀量和冻胀力增大等不稳定因素,提出应加强管道沿线的地质勘查和冻土区域管段的泄漏监测,建立并实施定期清管及巡线制等相应的防治措施。     

How much more rain will global warming bring?

Climate models and satellite observations both indicate that the total amount of water in the atmosphere will increase at a rate of 7% per kelvin of surface warming. However, the climate models predict that global precipitation will increase at a much slower rate of 1 to 3% per kelvin. A recent analysis of satellite observations does not support this prediction of a muted response of precipitation to global warming. Rather, the observations suggest that precipitation and total atmospheric water have increased at about the same rate over the past two decades.     

长期不同施肥下太湖地区稻田净温室效应和温室气体排放强度的变化

利用田间观测和模型预测方法对太湖地区一个长期不同施肥处理的稻田生态系统进行了稻季温室气体排放观测和净温室气体排放强度分析。结果表明,不同施肥管理下,稻田土壤有机碳含量不同程度提高,有机无机肥料配施较单施化肥处理显著提高有机碳库储量,并且秸秆处理略高于猪粪处理。与不施肥处理相比,长期施用肥料显著提高了稻田生态系统CH4和CO2的排放量,有机肥料与化肥配施较单纯施用化学肥料下土壤碳(CO2和CH4)排放增加,但化肥配施秸秆与化肥配施猪粪下稻田生态系统CH4和CO2的排放没有显著差异。不同施肥处理下,稻田生态系统净温室效应表现为CFM≈CFS>CF>NF,但水稻生产的净温室气体排放强度并没有显著性差异。因此,在提高水稻产量的同时,有机无机配合施肥并没有提高净温室气体的排放强度。     

TRMM卫星和全球降雨观测计划GPM及其应用

全球变暖和气候变化影响全球水循环,从而导致异常天气,如频繁的大雨和干旱。热带降雨观测卫星TRMM和全球降雨观测计划GPM是进行全球尺度的降雨观测的国际卫星观测计划,对全球变化研究具有很大作用。首先介绍了热带降雨观测卫星TRMM的概况及其5个有效载荷,即降雨雷达、可见/红外扫描仪、微波成像仪、云和地球辐射能量探测器以及闪电成像仪;接着介绍了即将于2007年发射的全球降雨观测计划GPM;最后介绍了TRMM卫星的应用。     

藏西北高原郭扎错湖泊面积变化与气候响应分析

高原内陆湖泊以其对气候变化敏感的指示作用,常用于分析区域气候变化趋势,为气候预报预测、生态气象服务等提供科学的数据支持。笔者基于1975年郭扎错地形图、1992—2018年TM/ETM+和GF1-WFV等卫星遥感影像资料,对郭扎错湖泊信息进行提取,并分析该湖近40年时空异质性以及面积变化与气候响应之间的关系,主要得出以下结论：（1）40年来郭扎错湖泊面积波动式萎缩,萎缩了3.22 km²,萎缩率为1.30%,其中2006—2019年间萎缩最为明显,从空间上来看主要变化区域在甜水河和崇测河入湖口处;（2）湖泊面积和年平均气温变化综合反映出20世纪90年代以前该区域气候趋势表现为暖湿化,随后趋于暖干化;（3）年平均气温是湖泊萎缩的主要影响因素,年平均降水量滞后性影响冰川,从而间接作用于湖泊面积变化,年平均蒸发量对湖泊面积剧变响应较为明显。     

Diverse plant and animal genetic records from Holocene and Pleistocene sediments

Genetic analyses of permafrost and temperate sediments reveal that plant and animal DNA may be preserved for long periods, even in the absence of obvious macrofossils. In Siberia, five permafrost cores ranging from 400,000 to 10,000 years old contained at least 19 different plant taxa, including the oldest authenticated ancient DNA sequences known, and megafaunal sequences including mammoth, bison, and horse. The genetic data record a number of dramatic changes in the taxonomic diversity and composition of Beringian vegetation and fauna. Temperate cave sediments in New Zealand also yielded DNA sequences of extinct biota, including two species of ratite moa, and 29 plant taxa characteristic of the prehuman environment. Therefore, many sedimentary deposits may contain unique, and widespread, genetic records of paleoenvironments.     

北方森林生态系统对全球气候变化的响应研究进展

北方森林是地球上第2大生物群区,约占陆地森林面积的30%,提供了从局地到全球的生态系统服务功能。1850年以来,全球性持续升温不断显现,2000—2050年全球至少升高2 ℃,甚至更高。预计到2100年,北方森林区冬季平均温度将升高1.3~6.3 ℃。与此同时,几乎所有的北方森林生态系统功能都将会受到影响,尤其是近几十年来,该区域发生了很多与温度升高相关的潜在生态响应。本文从碳循环、生物多样性、干旱化和林火发生频率以及冻土变化等方面具体综述了北方森林生态系统对于全球气候变化的响应。响应结果如下:1)气候变化对于北方森林碳循环动态的影响是极其复杂的,迄今为止并没有达成共识, 分解对于温度的反应敏感程度至今仍存在很多不确定性。2)动物、植物和微生物(真菌)均对气候变化产生了一定的响应,表现为动物和植物的分布区进一步北移,但真菌的多样性和生产力响应机制尚无法确定。3)北方森林区随气候变化表现为进一步的干旱化和林火发生明显增加。4)北方森林区与冻土伴生,冻土随气候变暖表现出了面积缩小和活动层扩大的趋势。可见,北方森林对气候变化响应明显,尽管到目前为止有些响应机制尚不清楚,但变化趋势十分明显。本文旨在为北方森林的经营和管理提供基础数据和技术支持,实现北方森林的可持续经营。      

OCEANOGRAPHY: Missing Mixing Found in the Deep Sea

In their simulations of how the sea's ponderous flows of water and heat affect climate, including future greenhouse warming, climate modelers assumed that something evenly stirred the world ocean from top to bottom around the globe. But oceanographers gauging the tides of the world's seas from a satellite perch have found intense patches of tidally driven mixing deep within the open ocean. Once modelers include these patches, they should see some changes in model predictions of global warming.     

Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations

Uphill shifts of species' distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads to widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts are often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. By comparing the altitudinal distributions of 64 plant species between the 1930s and the present day within California, we show that climate changes have resulted in a significant downward shift in species' optimum elevations. This downhill shift is counter to what would be expected given 20th-century warming but is readily explained by species' niche tracking of regional changes in climatic water balance rather than temperature. Similar downhill shifts can be expected to occur where future climate change scenarios project increases in water availability that outpace evaporative demand.