全国森林资源宏观监测的抽样设计与估计方法探索

阐述了全国森林资源宏观监测的抽样框架设计及群团抽样设计;研究提出了针对图斑区划判读和群团样地判读2种方案的抽样估计方法,包括系统抽样、整群抽样和两阶抽样,其中整群抽样更适合于图斑区划判读,而两阶抽样更适合于群团样地判读;9个省的抽样估计结果对比表明,不等群团的整群抽样估计方法对图斑区划判读和群团样地判读都是合适的。     

适应性群团抽样技术在森林资源清查中的应用

介绍一种新的不等概率抽样技术--适应性群团抽样(ACS).概略地介绍了其概念、特点、基本估计方法和研究概况.举例比较适应性群团抽样技术和随机抽样技术在稀疏群团植被调查中的精度和效率.     

适应性群团抽样技术方法和应用研究进展

从3个方面概述适应性群团抽样技术的研究现状和发展趋势:1)分析影响适应性群团抽样技术效率的主要因素--最初抽样方法的设计、网络的大小和数量、标准值的大小和邻域形式的设计;2)介绍适应性群团抽样的不同设计、试验模拟研究和估计方法;3)概述适应性群团抽样技术在稀疏群团分布的鱼类、鸟类和植被资源的调查应用研究.最后,指出适应性群团抽样技术在生态因子和资源调查应用研究方面的发展趋势.     

国外用两阶抽样估计森林蓄积

国外用两阶抽样估计森林蓄积文彦，桂来庭（林业部中南院长沙市４１００１４）众所周知，两阶抽样比一阶抽样不但能减少大量的野外工作量，而且还能达到预期目的。两阶抽样是以一阶抽样为基础，从一阶单元中随机抽取一定数量组成两阶样本，用两阶样本估计总体森林蓄积的一...     

经济两阶抽样样本单元数的配置

1引言两阶抽样具有抽样组织实施方便，适应于面积较广、调查条件复杂多样（地形复杂交通不便）等优点而广泛应用。在既定的抽样精度与抽样强度条件下，两阶抽样能使样本单元相对集中，从而降低调查成本；同时对于方差较大的阶样本单元数可多抽些，对方差较小的阶样本单元数少抽，以提高抽样效率。传统的两阶抽样在确定样本单元数时，虽然考虑到各阶的调查费用和调查误差，但未考虑调查总费用。本文拟对在给定调查总费用和抽样误差条件下两阶抽样样本单元数的确定和分配进行初研，以抛砖引玉。2原理和方法从含有NtM个二阶单元的总体中（N为…     

两阶段自适应群团抽样在沙漠边缘植被调查中的比较

两阶段自适应群团抽样(two-stage ACS)是一种新兴自适应群团抽样(ACS)设计,它能在一定程度上解决自适应群团抽样最终样本量不确定的缺陷.概述两阶段自适应群团抽样方法的技术思路和原理.以实地调查的花棒数据为研究对象,进行4种两阶段自适应群团抽样方法的比较和分析,指出不跨越边界的基于Horvitz-Thompson估计量的两阶段自适应群团抽样的效果最佳.     

分层(PR)两阶抽样调查试验(方法五)

一、试验目的PR抽样,就是一阶不等概、二阶等概的两阶抽样(P是英文概率的字头,R是比率的字头一编注)。森林两阶抽样调查因样地相对集中,外业调查比较方便,一般工效较高。1972年在河北省围场县曾进行过均匀复合体的等概两阶抽样试验(见本刊1972年第四期),取得了较好的结果,证明在一定条件下两阶抽样可在保证预定精度的前提下提高外业工效。两阶抽样要求一阶单元之间的差别愈小愈     

群团抽样对西藏森林资源宏观监测结果的影响分析

森林资源监测是国情国力调查的重要组成部分,是林业重要的基础性工作。遥感技术弥补了传统人工抽样调查的不足,然而遥感样地的布设方式、数量及遥感判读精度是宏观森林资源监测值得关注的问题。本研究在西藏自治区2015年森林资源宏观监测成果的基础上,采用不同群团抽样方案与遥感判读相结合的方式,得出全区森林覆盖率,并分析群团内样本数量变动对西藏森林资源宏观监测结果的影响。研究结果表明,当样地内群团数量达到25个时,估计均值与实际森林覆盖率相差最小,变动系数最稳定,抽样精度达到最高94.49%。由此可知,大样地群团抽样方法对森林资源宏观监测来说是一种可行高效的方法,且工作量显著低于图斑区划判读的工作量。     

全国森林资源宏观监测抽样设计改进方案探索

针对全国森林资源宏观监测20km×20km的抽样框架设计及包含25个样地的群团抽样设计,以2015年首次宏观监测结果为基础,研究提出了满足各省抽样精度要求、进行适度加密并将群团内样地数减少至9个的改进方案,为优化2016年的全国森林资源宏观监测方案提供了依据。     

不跨越边界基于Horvitz-Thompson估计量的分层自适应群团抽样

提出一种新的不跨越边界的基于Horvitz-Thompson估计量的分层自适应群团抽样方法,给出其估计量公式,并证明其无偏性。将9种抽样方法(简单随机抽样、分层简单随机抽样、基于修正Hansen-Hurwitz估计量的ACS、基于修正Horvitz-Thompson估计量的ACS、跨越边界基于Hansen-Hurwitz估计量的ACSI、跨越边界基于Hansen-Hurwitz估计量的ACSII、不跨越边界基于修正Hansen-Hurwitz估计量的ACS、跨越边界基于修正Horvitz-Thompson估计量的ACS、不跨越边界基于修正Horvitz-Thompson估计量的ACS)应用于中国乌兰布和沙漠边缘植被花棒密度调查,并对比9种抽样方法精度。结果表明:不跨越边界的基于Horvitz-Thompson估计量的分层自适应群团抽样的效果最佳;分层的抽样方法比不分层的抽样方法效率要高。     

Comparison of field sampling methods for assessing coarse woody debris and use of airborne laser scanning as auxiliary information

Coarse woody debris (CWD) has been recognized as one of the strongest indicators of forest biodiversity and its assessment has been emphasized in the development of new inventory methods. In this study, the most commonly referenced probability sampling methods were tested in a field area of 305.8 ha to gain comparative information on their performance and efficiency. Simple random sampling (SRS), systematic sampling and cluster sampling with fixed sized circular sample plots were tested, as well as strip sampling, transect relascope sampling and adaptive cluster sampling (ACS). Point relascope sampling and line intersect sampling were also tested for inventories of downed dead wood volumes. In addition, the amount of standing dead wood was assessed by means of traditional small angle relascope sampling. In general, the use of additional information in the inventory process has shown promising results. A new method for using data derived from airborne laser scanning (ALS) as a source of auxiliary information in the assessment of CWD volumes is presented, using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling for the selection of the first-stage sample units in ACS (ACS_PPS) and for the placement of fixed sized plots (PLOT_PPS). The sampling methods were compared in terms of the cost-effectiveness. Point relascope sampling proved the most efficient sampling method for inventorying CWD volumes. PLOT_PPS and ACS_PPS were more efficient than the inventory of fixed sized plots (PLOT_SRS) and ACS (ACS_SRS) where sample units were selected with SRS. However, these methods could not achieve the same efficiency as relascope samplings. Nevertheless, the use of probability layers derived from ALS data gave promising results and offers new possibilities for inventorying CWD volumes more efficiently.     

Field sampling of cork value before extraction in Portuguese ‘montados’

The assessment of cork quality and the estimation of cork value are very important to forest landowners, for management purposes and for cork commercialisation. The Forest Producers Associations have been using a sampling scheme with the objective of estimating cork value (price per unit of weight, usually kg) before extraction, based on the sampling of individual trees along a zigzag transect that covers the entire stand. The sampling error is usually too high, but, from a practical standpoint, it is difficult to increase the sampling intensity if it would imply an increase in sampling costs. The aim of this work was to propose, from data collected in six stands representative of the cork oak stands in Portugal, an alternative sampling methodology with a more efficient precision/cost ratio. Precision and costs of alternative sampling designs based on clusters of different sizes, complemented with analysis of the intracluster correlation coefficient, were studied in order to propose the most adequate sampling strategy. Single-stage cluster sampling with clusters of 5–7 trees guarantees a reasonable sampling error (10–15%) and can be conducted without a large increase in cost.     

毛红椿天然群体遗传多样性及取样策略探讨

[目的]研究毛红椿天然群体遗传多样性取样策略,为其种质资源收集、保存和遗传多样性保护等提供参考依据。[方法]利用8对微卫星分子标记进行毛红椿天然群体遗传多样性和空间自相关分析,综合制定其天然群体合理取样策略。[结果]毛红椿天然群体等位基因数平均为7.5个,期望杂合度(H_e)和多态性信息指数(PIC)均值分别为0.643 7和0.636 0,基因分化系数(G_(ST))均值为0.290 7。在遗传多样性取样策略方面,提出了根据毛红椿群体基因分化系数来确定取样群体遗传变异所占总变异比例的运算公式为1-(G_(ST))~(n-1),其中,n为取样群体的数量。当取样群体达到4个时,基本上能包括该树种97.5%的遗传变异;同时确定了目标群体的选择方法,应选择与其它群体间基因分化系数均值较大的4个群体,即贵州册亨(CH)、浙江遂昌(SC)、浙江仙居(XJ)和云南师宗(SZ)。通过构建云南宾川(BC)、云南师宗(SZ)和江西宜丰(YF)群体内取样单株数量与基因多样性和等位基因之间的捕获曲线,确定了群体内取样单株数量应达到15个以上;毛红椿天然群体内300～520 m范围内的单株间存在相似关系,超出此范围个体间差别较大,说明在进行群体内单株取样时,单株间距应大于520 m。[结论]取样群体数量、群体间遗传分化系数、群体内单株数量以及单株间距离等影响了毛红椿取样群体的遗传多样性。毛红椿天然群体遗传多样性取样策略为取样群体4个、每个群体最少取样15个单株,单株间距大于520 m。     

不同选择条件下预期遗传进度的可靠性分析

从遗传力与回归系数的关系入手．通过对亲子回归中子代平均数理论估计值Ｙ的误差进行分析，结果表明：遗传力是一个群体概念，不适合估算个体的遗传进度．特别是在遗传力较低或选择差较小时，个体的遗传进度估计值的可靠性更差；用遗传力估算由多个个体组成的小群体的遗传进度时，其遗传进度估计值的可靠性将大大提高．只要入选样本容量足够大．其遗传进度估计值的误差估计可以降低到允许的范围．     

Adaptive cluster sampling for estimation of deforestation rates

National estimates of deforestation rates may be based on a survey. Precise estimation requires an efficient design. When deforestation rates are low (<1%) large sample sizes are required with traditional sampling designs to meet a precision target. This study explores the efficiency of adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) for this estimation problem. The efficiency is assessed by simulated ACS sampling from 18,200 × 200 km populations with 78–10,742 deforestation polygons (DFP) of different shape and size and average 10-year deforestation rates between 0.2% and 1.0%. Each population is composed of four million square 1 ha population units (PU) in a regular grid. Relative root mean square errors (RMSE) of ACS were, depending on sample size, 30–50% lower than comparable errors with simple random sampling (SRS) designs. ACS achieves this advantage by adaptively adding PUs to an initial SRS sample of size n. Realized ACS sample sizes were, on average, twice the nominal size (n). Three measures of ACS efficiency indicated that the costs of adaptively increasing the sample size are critical for the effectiveness of ACS. Population effects were manifest in all estimators. Estimates of the abundance, size, and shape of DFPs will allow a prediction of these effects. Populations dominated by a few large DFPs were clearly unsuited for ACS. The performance of ACS relative to that of SRS was similar across plot sizes of 1, 10, and 40 ha. The general conclusion of this study is that the lower RMSE of ACS remains attractive when the average cost of adaptively adding a PU to the initial sample is low relative to the average cost of sampling a PU at random.     

The assessment of tree row attributes by stratified two-stage sampling

Tree row inventories are of increasing interest because tree rows mitigate wind erosion and desertification, protect agricultural crops, enhance rural landscape quality, act as bio-corridors, carbon sinks, and a source for bio-energy. The main objective of tree row inventories is to estimate population parameters such as total tree numbers, total tree numbers by species, the mean stem diameter at breast height, the mean tree height and total wood volume. The estimation of these quantities may be straightforwardly carried out whenever aerial images are available in such a way that tree rows can be counted: in these cases, a two-stage cluster sampling may be performed in which the primary units sampled in the first stage are the tree rows in the study area while the secondary units sampled in the second stage are the trees within the selected rows. This paper proposes two sets of two-stage estimators for the interest parameters, based on the Horvitz–Thompson and ratio criteria, together with the corresponding estimators for their sampling variances. The use of stratification is also considered. The proposed procedure was applied to perform a tree row inventory in the Pontina plain (Central Italy): in this case, the tree rows were enumerated by means of ortho-corrected airborne images and stratification was carried out on the basis of the prevailing species and age classes. The inventory results are interesting from a forestry perspective as well as for checking the effectiveness of the procedure.     

古槐树叶片主要性状多样性分析

为有效评价和鉴定古槐树资源、挖掘其优良性状,以2011年收集的山东省临沂、烟台、枣庄、淄博四地市72份古槐树种质为试验材料,对叶片的11个表型性状进行变异系数统计、单因素方差分析、相关性分析、主成分分析和聚类分析等研究。结果显示:72份古槐树种质11个表型性状的变异系数为11.88%~39.10%,平均变异系数为23.26%,具有较丰富的遗传多样性;11个性状有一定的相关性,叶宽与叶面积间的相关性系数为0.884,叶长与叶周长的相关性系数为0.832,叶面积与鲜质量的相关性系数为0.825;11个性状可以综合为4个主成分,累计贡献率达75.70%;对72份古槐树种质进行聚类分析,取阀值22.5时可分为3大类。本研究结果为古槐树种质资源保护及创新利用提供理论依据和技术支持。     

全国营造林综合核查抽样精度计算方法探讨

对目前全国营造林综合核查抽样方法的特点进行了分析,提出可用一阶单元大小不等的两阶抽样或比估计方法计算各类核实率和合格率的抽样精度,并用实例对具体计算方法进行了说明,为今后综合核查结果的精度计算提供了理论依据。