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1.
OBJECTIVE: To assess relative costs and benefits of vaccination and preemptive herd slaughter to control transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV). SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Direct costs associated with indemnity, slaughter, cleaning and disinfecting livestock premises, and vaccination were compared for various eradication strategies. Additional cost, total program cost, net benefit, and benefit-cost value (B/C) for each supplemental strategy were estimated, based in part on results of published model simulations for FMD. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Mean herd indemnity payments were estimated to be dollars 2.6 million and dollars 110,359 for dairy and nondairy herds, respectively. Cost to clean and disinfect livestock premises ranged from dollars 18,062 to dollars 60,205. Mean vaccination cost was dollars 2,960/herd. Total eradication cost ranged from dollars 61 million to dollars 551 million. All supplemental strategies involving use of vaccination were economically efficient (B/C range, 5.0 to 10.1) and feasible, whereas supplemental strategies involving use of slaughter programs were not economically efficient (B-C, 0.05 to 0.8) or feasible. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Vaccination with a highly efficacious vaccine may be a cost-effective strategy for control of FMD if vaccinated animals are not subsequently slaughtered and there is no future adverse economic impact, such as trade restrictions. Although less preferable than the baseline eradication program, selective slaughter of highest-risk herds was preferable to other preemptive slaughter strategies. However, indirect costs can be expected to contribute substantially more than direct costs to the total cost of eradication programs.  相似文献   

2.
A spreadsheet program was written to perform decision tree analysis for control of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), when testing all adults in a herd and culling all animals with positive test results. The program incorporated diagnostic test sensitivity, specificity, and test cost with the cost or value of each of the 4 possible outcomes; true-positive, true-negative, false-positive, and false-negative test results. The program was designed to repeat the analysis for the independent variable pretest paratuberculosis prevalence (0 to 100%). Model output was graphed as profit or loss in dollars vs pretest prevalence. The threshold was defined as the pretest prevalence at which benefit-cost equaled zero. Reed-Frost disease modeling techniques were used to predict the number of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis-infected replacement heifers resulting from infected cows during a control program. Sensitivity analysis was performed on variables of the decision tree model; test sensitivity, specificity, test cost, and factors affecting the cost of paratuberculosis to a commercial dairy. A test and cull program was profitable when paratuberculosis caused greater than or equal to 6% decrease in milk production if the pretest prevalence was greater than 6%, test sensitivity was 50%, test specificity was 98%, and the testing cost was $4/cow. Test specificities greater than 98% did not markedly affect the threshold for tests with a 50% sensitivity and costing $4/cow. Test sensitivity had minimal effect on the threshold. Using a diagnostic test with a 50% sensitivity and a 98% specificity as an example, test cost was shown to affect the threshold prevalence at which the test and cull program became profitable.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)  相似文献   

3.
Does control of bovine viral diarrhoea infection make economic sense?   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
AIM: To provide an economic analysis of the costs of control or eradication of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) against the estimated costs of the disease. METHODS: A decision-tree approach was adapted to an analysis of the costs of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection and that of three main control options (vaccination, test-and-cull, and increased biosecurity) and their combinations, to the dairy industry in New Zealand. The model was based on an average herd of 322 milking cows. Endemic, epidemic and sporadic effects of BVDV infection were modelled in the herd, to derive an estimate of costs. RESULTS: The cost of BVDV infection to an infected average-sized dairy herd in New Zealand was estimated to be NZ $11,334 (or NZ $35.19 per cow) per annum, and NZ $48,311 over 10 years. Based on these calculations, the estimate of the annual cost of BVDV infection to the dairy industry in New Zealand was in excess of NZ $23 million per annum. While all of the control options required financial input, the rate of return compared with the cost of BVD, when viewed over a 10-year term, was as high as 123%. CONCLUSIONS: All control options offered considerable savings compared with the cost of BVD infection, and control is economically favourable. Uncertainty over the likely efficacy of the control options under field conditions in New Zealand would not allow a firm choice of one option over another at this stage, and more work on determining the efficacy of those control options in New Zealand is needed.  相似文献   

4.
Natural transmission of bovine leukaemia virus (BLV) infection in south-eastern Queensland dairy herds was slow in 2 herds with a low to moderate (13 to 22%) prevalence of infection. Infection spread much more rapidly in a herd that had a higher prevalence (42%) when first tested. In a 13 month study of this herd, the cumulative incidence of infection was 24%. In one herd new infections were confined almost entirely to calves of uninfected dams. Following the end of feeding bulk milk to calves, a common practice in dairy herds, no more calves in this herd became infected. In laboratory experiments, neither prolonged housing of susceptible calves with infected cattle, consumption of drinking water contaminated with infected blood, nor inoculation of sheep with saliva from infected cattle resulted in transmission of BLV infection. Sheep were infected by subcutaneous inoculation of a suspension of purified lymphocytes from an infected heifer. The minimum infective dose was 10(3) lymphocytes, equivalent to the number of lymphocytes in approximately 0.1 microliter blood. Thus, procedures involving the transfer of a very small volume of blood from animal-to-animal have the potential to transmit infection.  相似文献   

5.
A stochastic spreadsheet model was developed to obtain estimates of the costs of whole herd testing on dairy farms for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) with pooled fecal samples. The optimal pool size was investigated for 2 scenarios, prevalence (a low-prevalence herd [< or = 5%] and a high-prevalence herd [> 5%]) and for different herd sizes (100-, 250-, 500- and 1,000-cow herds). All adult animals in the herd were sampled, and the samples of the individuals were divided into equal sized pools. When a pool tested positive, the manure samples of the animals in the pool were tested individually. The individual samples from a negative pool were assumed negative and not tested individually. Distributions were used to model the uncertainty about the sensitivity of the fecal culture at farm level and Map prevalence. The model randomly allocated a disease status to the cows (not shedding, low Map shedder, moderate Map shedder, and heavy Map shedder) on the basis of the expected prevalence in the herd. Pooling was not efficient in 100-cow and 250-cow herds with low prevalence because the probability to detect a map infection in these herds became poor (53% and 88%) when samples were pooled. When samples were pooled in larger herds, the probability to detect at least 1 (moderate to heavy) shedder was > 90%. The cost reduction as a result of pooling varied from 43% in a 100-cow herd with a high prevalence to 71% in a 1,000-cow herd with a low prevalence. The optimal pool size increased with increasing herd size and varied from 3 for a 500-cow herd with a low prevalence to 5 for a 1,000-cow herd with a high prevalence.  相似文献   

6.
Although the dynamics of transmission play an important role in the occurrence of intramammary infection (IMI), they have not been considered in previous models used to estimate the cost of IMI. The bio-economic model described includes within-herd dynamics of pathogen-specific IMI. The model simulated Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus uberis, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and Escherichia coli IMI stochastically and estimated the cost of these IMI in a herd of 100 dairy cows in a situation where a quota is applied to milk production. A Reed–Frost model was used for S. aureus, S. uberis, and S. dysgalactiae IMI and a Greenwood model for E. coli IMI. Economic analysis was conducted per pathogen for clinical and subclinical IMI. The parameters used in the model were based on the literature and were deemed credible and valid. Median annual incidence of clinical and subclinical IMI for all pathogens varied considerably. This variation was greatest for S. aureus IMI. The annual incidence of IMI in a herd of 100 dairy cows caused by S. aureus varied between 0 and 88 cases, with a median of 5 cases and the 5th and 95th percentiles of 0 to 36 for clinical IMI, and a median of 7 cases with the 5th and 95th percentiles of 0 to 52 for subclinical IMI. In consequence, the average total annual net costs also varied widely for S. aureus IMI. Clinical IMI costs were € 1375, with the 5th and 95th percentiles of 0 to 4716 and subclinical IMI costs were € 1219, with the 5th and 95th percentiles of 0 to 4030. The average annual net cost due to the 4 simulated pathogens combined was € 4896 and varied from € 915 to € 11,287 in a herd of 100 dairy cows. The bio-economic model developed for this study will be utilized as a tool to investigate the economic impact of management of pathogen-specific IMI.  相似文献   

7.
[目的]了解大庆市某牧场牛白血病病毒(BLV)感染情况。[方法]随机选取大庆市某规模化牧场泌乳期奶牛107头,采用ELISA方法进行BLV血清流行病学调查,并采用荧光定量PCR方法加以验证。[结果]ELISA检测结果阳性率为31.78%(34/107),荧光定量PCR检测结果阳性率为37.38%(40/107),两种检验方法的阳性重合率为85.00%;BLV高载量牛占总数的26.17%,低载量牛占总数的11.21%。[结论]调查结果表明,该牧场奶牛存在一定程度的BLV感染,在牛群中传播的风险较高。  相似文献   

8.
Serums from 4,394 dairy cattle in 100 herds and from 2,794 beef cattle in 50 herds were tested for antibody to the bovine (C-type) leukemia virus (BLV), using the agar gel immunodiffusion test. Reactors were found in 66% of the dairy herds (10.2% of the cattle) and in 14% of the beef herds (1.2% of the cattle). The prevalence of reactors was examined with respect to age, herd size, and sex. Few of the reactors were less than 2 years old. There was a high percentage of reactors in small dairy herds (less than 50 cattle). In 22 dairy herds (1,354 cows and 96 bulls), the rate of infection in cows was compared with that in bulls. In those herds, 13.5% of the cows and 10.4% of the bulls were reactors.  相似文献   

9.
Identification of the risk factors associated with Enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL) is essential for the adoption of potentially prevention strategies. Accordingly, our objectives were to determine the geographic distribution of Bovine Leukemia Virus (BLV) infection and identify the risk factors associated with cow-level BLV infection in the Egyptian dairy cattle. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 1299 mixed breed cows distributed over four provinces in the Nile Delta of Egypt in 2018. The randomly selected cows on each farm were serologically tested for BLV, and the cow’s information was obtained from the farm records. Four variables (geographic location, herd size, number of parities, and age) were used for risk analysis. A total of 230 serum samples (17.7 %) were serologically positive for BLV. The highest prevalence of BLV infection was associated with parity (OR = 3.4, 95 %CI 2.4–4.9) with 80 % probability of being BLV-positive at parity ≥5, followed by herd size (OR = 1.8, 95 %CI 1.4–2.2). However, geographic location seems to have no impact on the prevalence of BLV infection in Egypt. Our findings strongly indicate that the intensive surveillance and effective prevention strategies against BLV infection in Egypt should be provided to multiparous cows with ≥5 parities and live in large farm with more than 200 cows.  相似文献   

10.
We describe the progression of Bovine Leukemia Virus (BLV) infection from birth until the first lactation in 61 animals from a typical large dairy herd of Argentina, with more than 85% of prevalence. The purpose was to identify potential points to effectively break the BLV cycle of transmission in our dairy productive system. We detected early infection in 11.47% of newborn calves by nested PCR. From birth to 12 months, no evidence of new infections was observed. After 12 months of age, the detection of new reactors increased slowly with time, from 15.09% at 15 months to 24% at 27 months. After that, the number of reactors increased rapidly up to 40% and 60.76% at 30 and 36 months, respectively. This last 9-month period coincided with parturition and the entry into the milking herd. Real-time PCR showed that more than 75% of adult animals had low peripheral-blood proviral load. Complementary, all infected animals showed low levels of provirus in milk and colostrum. The most important finding was that even when management procedures to prevent BLV iatrogenic transmission were followed, no significant change was observed in the prevalence after three years, strongly suggesting that other way/s of transmission play a key role under natural conditions. This study showed an interesting baseline to draw an alternative approach based on selective segregation according to the peripheral-blood proviral load as a potential indicator of risk transmission, and as an alternative to classical control measures.  相似文献   

11.
A seroepidemiological survey of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection was conducted in Japan in 2007 using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and an agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) test. A total of 5420 cattle (dairy, 3966; breeding beef, 797; fattening beef, 657) from 209 farms in seven prefectures in Japan were tested. The overall prevalence of BLV infection was 28.6%. The prevalence of BLV infection in dairy cattle (34.7%) was higher than for both fattening beef cattle (7.9%) and breeding beef cattle (16.3%). Age-specific prevalence showed that BLV prevalence increased with age in all types of cattle and was notably different between dairy and beef cattle under 1 year of age. Among 207 farms, 141 herds (68.1%) had one or more positive animals. The proportion of these positive farms was significantly higher among dairy farms (79.1%) than among beef breeding farms (39.5%) and beef fattening farms (51.9%) (P < 0.001). Dairy farms (40.5%) also showed a significantly higher within-herd prevalence than beef breeding (27.4%) and fattening (14.9%) farms (P = 0.001). This study indicated that BLV is more widely spread in dairy cattle than in beef breeding cattle in Japan. Given the prevalence of BLV infection in dairy and beef cattle was 8- and 1.7-fold higher, respectively, than rates previously found in 1980–1982, BLV appears to be spreading particularly among the dairy cattle population during the last two decades. Further investigation is required to determine the risk factors necessary to control BLV infection that take into account the different farming practices that exist between dairy and beef sectors.  相似文献   

12.
A study was conducted in order to develop a herd-based control strategy for bovine leukemia virus (BLV). Michigan State University's closed lactating dairy herd of 114 cows was utilized for the study. Ninety-five percent (95%) of the cows were positive for BLV antibodies, as determined by the agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) test in November 1979. To develop the control strategy program, the following management practices were instituted: there was a complete physical separation of BLV positive from BLV negative animals for 3 years after which the two groups were physically mixed. Different and sterile supplies and equipment were utilized for any veterinary-medicine-related activity. Personnel working on the farm were constantly made aware of the transmission of the disease and how to minimize it. A constant vector control program and other miscellaneous management practices were implemented. The BLV seronegative animals were examined monthly for BLV antibodies starting at 6–7 months of age. The reactor animals were separated from the seronegative animals when the reactors had 2 positive AGID tests consecutively. A positive BLV serotest was not a criterion for culling. Following a 3-year complete separation of positive animals from negative animals, the overall point prevalence decreased from 95 to 34%. The results were further categorized according to 4 age groups of 6–15, 16–23, 24–47 and 48 months and older. The percentage of BLV-positive animals decreased from 19 to 17, 58 to 14, 90 to 33 and 100 to 90% for the respective age groups. Following a 10-month discontinuation of physical separation of positive animals from negative animals, a decrease in the overall point prevalence rate was still observed. The limitations and practical applications of the program are discussed.  相似文献   

13.
Bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection is widespread in the US dairy industry and the majority of producers do not actively try to manage or reduce BLV incidence within their herds. However, BLV is estimated to cost the dairy industry hundreds of millions of dollars annually and this is likely a conservative estimate. BLV is not thought to cause animal distress or serious pathology unless infection progresses to leukemia or lymphoma. However, a wealth of research supports the notion that BLV infection causes widespread abnormal immune function. BLV infection can impact cells of both the innate and adaptive immune system and alter proper functioning of uninfected cells. Despite strong evidence of abnormal immune signaling and functioning, little research has investigated the large-scale effects of BLV infection on host immunity and resistance to other infectious diseases. This review focuses on mechanisms of immune suppression associated with BLV infection, specifically aberrant signaling, proliferation and apoptosis, and the implications of switching from BLV latency to activation. In addition, this review will highlight underdeveloped areas of research relating to BLV infection and how it causes immune suppression.  相似文献   

14.
Johne's disease (JD) is an incurable, chronic infectious disease prevalent in dairy herds throughout the US and the world. The substantial economic losses caused by JD have been well documented. However, information on the costs of controlling the disease is limited, yet necessary, if producers are to make sound decisions regarding JD management. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of management changes to control JD on infected dairy farms. A 5-year longitudinal study of six dairy herds infected with JD was performed. Each herd implemented a JD control program upon study enrollment. Prevalence of JD within each herd was monitored with annual testing of all adult cows using fecal culture and/or serum ELISA. Individual cow production and culling information was collected to estimate the annual economic losses caused by JD. An economic questionnaire was developed and administered to each herd annually to estimate costs directly attributable to the JD control program. Based on the costs of the control program, and using the losses to estimate the potential benefits of the control program, the net present value (NPV) of the control program was calculated for each herd during the study and projected into the future for a total of 20 years. The NPV was calculated for four different scenarios: (1) assuming a linear decline in losses beyond the observed period of the study with JD eradication by year 20 of the control program; (2) assuming losses and JD prevalence remain constant at the rate equal to that of the last observed year while continuing the control program; (3) assuming linear increase in losses at rate equal to that in scenario 1 with no control program; and (4) assuming losses remain constant at same level as the beginning of the study with no control plan implemented. The NPV varied greatly across the herds. For scenario 1, only three herds had a positive NPV; and only two herds had a positive NPV under scenario two. In the absence of a control program, the NPV's were always negative. The costs of the JD control programs implemented on these herds averaged $30/cow/year with a median of $24/cow/year. The annual losses due to JD averaged $79/cow/year with a median of $66/cow/year. Investing in a JD control program can be cost-effective.  相似文献   

15.
Bovine leukemia virus (BLV) is a retrovirus that induces a chronic infection in cattle, which develop in three possible pathological forms: asymptomatic course, persistent lymphocytosis (PL) and lymphosarcoma. Once infected, cattle remain virus carriers for life and start to show a serological reaction within a few weeks after infection. Eradication and control of the disease is based on early diagnostic and segregation of the carriers. The agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) test has been the serological test of choice for routine diagnosis of serum samples. Nevertheless, in more recent years, the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) has replaced the AGID for large scale testing. Although Argentina has over 60 million cattle population, no nationwide studies have been conducted yet to determine the prevalence of the infection. To estimate the rate of BLV infection in dairy cattle in Argentina, a survey for specific antibodies in >10,000 serum samples from animals over 18 months old, belonging to 363 different herds from the largest dairy production areas of the country, was carried out in our laboratory, along 1999. For this purpose, we developed an ELISA to detect serum antibodies against the BLV virus. The cut-off of the ELISA was established over 339 serum samples, using polymerase chain reaction and southern blot (PCR-SB) as confirmatory test. The sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA was of 97.2 and 97.5%, respectively, while the local official AGID test showed a sensitivity of 79.7% and specificity of 99.0%. To know the seroprevalence of BLV on dairy herds, and also the incidence of the infection within the herd, the serological survey was based on individual serum samples. The results show that the prevalence of infected individuals is of 32.85%, while the percentage of infected herds, harboring one or more infected animals, is of 84%. These results indicate a medium level of seropositive animals when taken individually, but a high prevalence of infected farms, which has been notoriously increased in the last 15 years as shown when compared with previous data from particular geographic areas, indicating that BLV constitutes a serious sanitary problem for dairy producers in Argentina. They also indicate the poor sensitivity of the official AGID test used in the country.  相似文献   

16.
Our purpose was to determine direct production losses (milk loss, premature voluntary culling and reduced slaughter value, mortaliy loss, and abortion and reproductive loss) and treatmetn costs (veterinary services, medication cost, and extra farm labour cost) due to four infectious diseases in the maritime provinces of Canada: bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD), enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL), Johne's Disease (JD), and neosporosis. We used a partial-budget model, and incorporated risk and sensitivity analyses to identify the effects of uncertainty on costs. Total annual costs for an average, infected, 50 cow herd were: JD$ 2472; BVD$ 2421; neosporosis $ 2304; EBL$ 806. The stochastic nature of the proportion of infected herds and prevalence of infection within a herd were used to estimate probability distributions for these ex post costs. For all diseases, these distributions were right skewed. A sensitivity analysis showed the largest effect on costs was due to milk yield effects. For example, changing milk production loss from 0 to 5% for BVD increased the costs for the disease by 266%.  相似文献   

17.
Prevalence of bovine leukemia virus infection in Florida   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
A serologic study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection in dairy and beef cattle in Florida. Using the agar gel immunodiffusion test with a glycoprotein antigen 47.8% of 7,768 dairy cattle and 6.7% of 4,911 beef cattle were found to have antibodies to BLV. The prevalence of BLV antibodies increased significantly (P less than 0.0001) with increasing age. After data were adjusted for age, prevalence of BLV antibodies was significantly associated with dairy breed (P less than 0.05) but not with species (Bos taurus and B indicus) or sex.  相似文献   

18.
Bovine-leukosis virus (BLV; also termed ‘bovine-leukemia virus’) is a retrovirus that primarily affects lymphoid tissue of dairy and beef cattle. Our objective was to investigate the association between BLV infection and annual value of production (AVP) on dairy herds within the United States, as part of the USDA National Animal Health Monitoring System’s 1996 dairy study. 1006 herds (in 20 states) with at least 30 dairy cows were interviewed during 1996. The agar-gel immunodiffusion test was used to detect serum antibodies to BLV. 10–40 cows from each herd were tested and each tested cow was classified as negative or positive based on results of a single test.

A multivariable regression model was used with the 976 herds with complete data for analysis. When compared to herds with no test-positive cows, herds with test-positive cows produced 218 kg per cow (i.e. 3%) less milk. The average reduction in AVP was $ 59 per cow for test-positive herds relative to test-negative herds. For the dairy industry as a whole, BLV seropositivity was associated with loss to producers of $ 285 million and $ 240 million for consumers. Most of this $ 525 million industry loss was due to reduced milk production in test-positive herds.  相似文献   


19.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the use of a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay in detecting bovine leukosis virus (BLV) in adult dairy cows. DESIGN: Prospective study. ANIMALS: 223 adult dairy cows. PROCEDURE: Cows were tested for BLV status by use of an ELISA and a PCR assay. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values of positive and negative tests, and the percentage of cows correctly classified by PCR assay were calculated. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals were calculated for sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity were 0.672 and 1.00, respectively. Prevalence of BLV in this herd was 0.807. Predictive value of a positive test was 1.00, and predictive value of a negative test was 0.421. The percentage of cows correctly classified by PCR assay was 73.5%. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: A positive PCR assay result provided definitive evidence that a cow was infected with BLV. Sensitivity and negative predictive value for PCR assay were low. Consequently, PCR assay alone is unreliable for routine detection of BLV in herds with high prevalence of the disease.  相似文献   

20.
The results of a commercial bulk-milk enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for herd-level bovine leukemia virus (BLV) status were compared to results obtained from individual agar-gel immunodiffussion (AGID) testing on sampled cattle. A positive herd was defined as a herd having one or more AGID-positive animals. The estimated true herd status was based on the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test and the number of cattle sampled per herd. Ninety-seven herds were used, with a mean of 13 cows sampled per herd. The AGID test indicated an apparent herd prevalence of 70.1%. After accounting for the number of cows sampled and the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test, the estimated true herd prevalence of BLV was 52.3%. The ELISA test identified 79.4% of herds as positive for BLV, and had an apparent sensitivity and specificity of 0.97 and 0.62, respectively. However, after accounting for the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test in individual animals, the specificity of the ELISA test was 0.44. The ELISA test was useful for identifying BLV-negative herds (i.e., ruling out the presence of BLV infection in test negative herds). With the moderately low specificity, herds identified as positive by the ELISA test would require further testing at the individual or herd level to definitively establish their BLV status.  相似文献   

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