基于中国农业CGE模型的农业补贴政策对粮食安全影响的研究

通过构建农业一般均衡模型（CGE）,本研究分析了农业补贴增长条件下的粮食安全问题。模拟结果显示,农业补贴增长将降低CPI、GDP价格指数、出口价格指数、投资价格指数,从而带动资本、投资、真实GDP、土地租金增长,促进社会就业,带动名义工资、实际工资、家庭可支配收入增加,促进家庭消费和政府消费增加,整个宏观经济发展呈现良好态势。人民币真实贬值、出口增长、关税收入增加,贸易条件改善,国家宏观经济保持良好增长势头。因此,在保障粮食安全政策中,继续加大农业补贴政策的实施力度,提高农业补贴的实际效用,对国家粮食安全有重要意义。     

Women

In New Zealand while women dominate leadership positions in constitutional, political and business areas, gender inequality remains entrenched. Despite significant gains in rights (employment, pay equity, property), as a group women earn less and perform more family care and unpaid work than men. In part these disparities result from the economic restructuring of the last 15 years which saw a loss in unskilled manufacturing jobs, less social support and greater rewards to business and public sector elites. Maori and Pacific Island women are the most disadvantaged groups. Labour/Alliance government initiatives to reduce poverty particularly among Maori and Pacific Island peoples by strengthening access to health and education services and supporting and replicating successful community initiatives are also likely to benefit other low income women.     

A Random Utility Model of Environmental Equity

Past attempts to uncover evidence that economically disadvantaged groups are unjustly exposed to environmental disamenities have failed to take into account self‐selection behavior of individuals or groups of individuals. For instance, when choosing a place to live, households may be trading environmental quality for other housing, neighborhood, and location characteristics they care about. Previous literature on environmental justice has investigated location choice of polluting industries, but fails to account for consumer self‐selection in housing markets. This paper thus focuses on location choice of individuals based on observed housing transactions. From the results of a random utility model, a test is proposed that incorporates the no‐envy concept of economic equity. The results support a finding for environmental discrimination with respect to African American households, but do not support the hypothesis that poor households in general are unfairly exposed to environmental disamenities.     

Comparison between Calibration Procedure and Econometric Estimation

The two methods of estimating parameter in computable general equilibrium(CGE) model are introduced and compared:the calibration procedure and econometric estimation. The conclusions are:the estimation of parameter in CGE model must use the calibration procedure coupled with the econometric estimation method;the elasticity of output with respect to labor input,the marginal expenditure share for households and price elasticity of export demand are estimated by econometric estimation method;and other parameters of the CGE model can be get by calibration procedure.     

The State‐Level Impacts of Enforcing Sales Taxes for E‐retail Purchases

The Marketplace Fairness Act (S. 743) recently passed by the U.S. Senate may portend a national move toward states imposing sales taxes for business‐to‐consumer e‐retail purchases. While much of the policy debate surrounding this question has focused on trade creation versus diversion, there are likely distinct compositional effects at the state level, which will affect both economic activity and tax revenue. Consumers are clearly hurt by an online sales tax. However, such a policy would seemingly benefit state tax coffers, as well as traditional brick‐and‐mortar retailers and their employees. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model approach to get a better understanding of the state‐level income, employment, and tax revenue effects of such a policy shift, in particular the likely tradeoffs between these three traditional economic targets across reasonable ranges of price elasticities.     

Benefits and risks for Melanesian households from commercialising Canarium indicum

This research note discusses the benefits and risks for Melanesian households arising from attempts to increasingly commercialise Canarium indicum, an edible tree nut indigenous to Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Qualitative data were generated during workshops and interviews with Canarium industry stakeholders about the impacts associated with a series of interventions designed to encourage further commercialisation of Canarium. The findings are organised according to three dimensions that elucidate the social implications of industry development for local communities: (i) income and growth; (ii) equity; and (iii) voice and choice. Broader distribution of benefits within and between countries, as well as among supply chain actors, requires a stronger policy response at regional (Melanesia) and national scales, equitable gender representation to avoid reinforcing existing inequalities, and delegation of decision‐making power to the appropriate level to facilitate effective community participation and their links with other stakeholders. Thus, it remains to be seen whether Canarium‐related benefits arising from its commercialisation can be sufficiently reliable compared with either other sources of income (e.g. existing employment opportunities for those located near urban areas) or utilising the resource for subsistence purposes.     

Income Distribution Characteristics of Rural Economic Sectors: Implications for Local Development Policy

Recent trends suggest increasing reliance on private markets to provide for local economic well-being. This research demonstrates the study of regional household income distribution patterns associated with productive activities important to many rural areas. A social accounting matrix analysis was used to examine agricultural production, agricultural processing, forestry production, forest products processing, and tourism in a small rural region in Wisconsin to illustrate the variable distributional characteristics of private market structures and related local economic development policy. The results showed that while high income households comprised 22 percent of total regional households in the study area, they received between 57 percent and 63 percent of earned income associated with changes in sectoral factor income. Medium income households (34 percent of regional households) received between 32 percent and 41 percent of earned income, and low income households (44 percent) received between 2 percent and 6 percent. The ability of local policy to influence distributional patterns is implied to the extent that local action can facilitate variable growth rates of targeted economic sectors.     

Tax Incentives in an Economy with Public Goods

This study employs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Ohio to evaluate the effect of a state corporate tax cut. The innovative features of this study are (1) the use of the cost of capital concept, (2) dynamic adjustment mechanisms in factor markets, and (3) incorporation of public goods in the household utility function and firms' production functions. The model results indicate that the stimulatory effects of tax cuts for economic development are muted when effects of public expenditures on the productivity of private capital and the migration of households are taken into account. This is because the reduction in public expenditure due to the tax cut implies (1) lower productivity for private industries and (2) lower levels of labor in-migration during the initial several periods after the policy shock as compared to the pre-policy sequence of equilibria. This study shows that evaluation of tax policy without simultaneously considering the effect of public goods can be misleading.     

Does Casino Development Have a Positive Effect on Economic Growth?

This study examines the relationship between casinos and economic growth in the U.S. Using county‐level data on the 48 contiguous states from 2003 to 2012, we estimate the effect of casinos on per capita income growth and job creation. Our research procedures include examining the relationship using level‐to‐level panel data, and 3‐year and 10‐year differenced data. An instrumental variable approach is also considered to account for potential endogeneity of the casino variable. Although, the instruments are both relevant and exogenous, test results found insufficient evidence of endogeneity in our panel data models. In addition, we estimate a spatial error model (SEM) to account for the unobserved spatial characteristics that may affect economic growth in the counties but are not captured by our conventional econometric models. Our results show that casinos had a positive effect on per capita income; casino expansions exerted a small, positive effect on both per capita income growth and job growth. However, the effect of casino expansions on 10‐year per capita income growth dissipated when we controlled for the spatial autocorrelation in our model. Nevertheless, the SEMs results also suggest that casino expansions continued to have a positive effect on the 2003–2012 job growth.     

The Direct and Indirect (Spillover) Effects of Productive Government Spending on State Economic Growth

Using data on 48 contiguous U.S. states and a spatial econometric approach, this paper examines short‐ and long‐run effects of productive higher education and highway infrastructure spending financed by different revenue sources on state economic growth. Following the Lagrange Multiplier, Wald, and Likelihood Ratio tests, the data are found to be characterized by both spatial lag and spatial error processes, leading to the estimation of a dynamic spatial Durbin model. By decomposing results of the dynamic spatial Durbin model into short‐ and long‐run direct as well as indirect (spillover) effects, we show that accounting for spillover effects provides a more comprehensive approach to uncovering the effects of productive government spending on growth. We find that, regardless of the financing source, productive higher education and highway spending have statistically significant short‐ and long‐run direct as well as spillover effects on state income growth.     

Ethnic conflict in Papua New Guinea

Abstract: On many measures of ethno‐linguistic diversity, Papua New Guinea is the most fragmented society in the world. I argue that the macro‐level political effect of this diversity has been to reduce, rather than increase, the impact of ethnic conflict on the state. Outside the Bougainville conflict, and (to a lesser extent) the recent upsurge of violence in the Southern Highlands, ethnic conflicts in Papua New Guinea have not presented a threat to national government. In contrast to most other ethnically diverse societies, the most consequential impacts of ethnic conflict in Papua New Guinea are at the local level. This paper therefore examines the disparate impacts of local‐ and national‐level forms of ethnic conflict in Papua New Guinea.     

Voter‐Approved Annexations in an Urban Growth Boundary Regime: The Impacts on Housing Values,Density, and Economic Equity

Oregon is known for its strict Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) policies. While UGBs are designed to accommodate land supply for 20 years of growth, land within UGBs must be annexed into city limits before it can be developed at urban densities and serviced. In Oregon, cities use a variety of municipal annexation and voter‐approved annexation policies (VAAPs), providing an opportunity to study how different annexation policies affect land and housing markets, and affect urban density. Previous research on annexation has not considered how annexation policy influences housing values. This paper examines how VAAPs impact land growth, housing development, and density at the city level. It also examines how VAAPs impact housing values. Based on city‐level and tax‐lot‐level statistical analyses from 107 cities outside Portland Metro area, the results suggest that VAAPs negatively impact the availability of developable land within city limits. VAAPs also positively impact residential density and housing value. Lastly, VAAPs inequitably affect housing value between relatively high‐value housing and relatively low‐value housing, posing economic equity impacts for lower value housing. These findings provide important lessons for Oregon and other states. While VAAPs may increase residential density in cities, the policies may exacerbate affordability problems.     

The Effects of Jobs-Targeted Development Incentive Programs

ABSTRACT In recent years, many states have raised the amount of resources they devote to economic development programs, particularly those providing direct monetary assistance to firms. However, scholarly attention to this topic has not kept pace and, as a result, relatively little is known about such policies' effectiveness. This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary incentives using Ohio's experience with such programs in the 1980s. Empirical results show that incentives are significantly related to employment and income growth at the county level. Grants are found to be more effective than loans, and capital subsidies to businesses more effective than either labor subsidies to businesses or capital subsidies to communities. Finally, resources given to creating jobs are more effective than resources for retaining or training existing workers.     

农户分类补贴客观条件分析及补贴机制研究

中国农户数量众多,农业经营的多样化特点突出。由于不同农户存在地区差异、耕地面积和地块数量的差异、种植作物品种的差异以及农户自身经营行为的差异,补贴政策要有所区别,体现出针对性。通过静态分类补贴可以拉开对不同类型农户的补贴标准,提高农户粮食生产的积极性;而借助动态分类补贴则可以关注农户经营过程中的量变与质变,更好的服务各类农户。同时,为科学配置补贴资源,应建立静态补贴和动态补贴之间的有效转化通道,充分发挥补贴政策引导农户增产增收的作用。     

State Fiscal Structure and Economic Development Policy

This essay adds a new dimension to the debate concerning taxes and business location decisions by raising a simple, but perhaps underappreciated point concerning political implications of state and local fiscal structure for state economic development policy. Low taxes may well be attractive to business owners and their employees; however, a fiscal structure that is not incentive-compatible with economic expansion may end up frustrating public policies of all types aimed at promoting growth. Economic growth may be seen as increasing types aimed at promoting growth. Economic growth may be seen as increasing demands for public services, thereby placing upward pressure on tax rates faced by the original taxpayers. In Wyoming, this problem is compounded because the tax base is narrow and highly income inelastic and the incidence of taxes levied falls significantly on out-of-state residents who do not benefit from public services provided. Additionally, prospects for reducing the mismatch between taxpayers and public service beneficiaries appear to be limited because, quite understandably, state residents do not wish to pay more for public services for which they have historically paid cents on the dollar.     

Does Sprawl Induce Affordable Housing?

The costs of sprawl are well documented, but there are fewer studies of its potential benefits. One such benefit is argued to be the facilitation of the filtering process, resulting in a greater quantity of affordable and available housing for low‐income households. While metropolitan area data indicate a positive correlation between sprawl and the supply of affordable housing for very low‐income households, regression analysis does not provide evidence for this hypothesis, after controlling for other metropolitan characteristics. The results put into question the argument that sprawl expands housing opportunities for households of all incomes, specifically those who are the poorest.     

基于中国农业CGE模型的耕地政策对粮食安全影响研究

通过构建农业一般均衡模型（CGE）,本研究分析了耕地面积减少条件下的粮食安全问题。模拟结果显示,粮食耕地面积减少将导致土地租金、物价指数、GDP价格指数、投资价格指数、出口价格指数增长,导致投资、资本和实质GDP减少,直接影响就业、实际工资、名义工资、家庭可支配收入,家庭消费和政府消费缩减。人民币升值影响出口、关税收入减少,净出口对GDP贡献减少,国家宏观经济形势变坏。因此,在保障粮食安全政策中,必须坚决维护1.2亿hm2耕地红线不动摇,确保国家粮食安全。     

A Community Economic Forecasting and Simulation System: Description of a Satellite Model

This paper deals with the problem of modelling sub-county areas that are so small that county level forecasts cannot be used for policy purposes. Starting from a simple specification that relates demand for local goods and services to local and non-local income, a system of equations is developed that can be used as a satellite to a county model to forecast impacts of economic events at the town level. Regression coefficients for the equations are estimated using data at the one-digit SIC code level for a pooled sample of towns in Massachusetts. Model validation tests are reported. An example of an application is provided by simulating impacts of 500 new manufacturing jobs in a town within a county. Our approach yields simulation and forecasting results for both the town and the county.     

A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Chinese Economy

To research the distortions of Chinese economy under a system of free markets, a computable general equilibrium model is constructed. And we will derive the model. The conclusions of the study are: (1) prices and resource allocation in the 1995 Chinese economy were substantially distorted; (2) labor was be overpaid and capital was underpaid in most non-agriculture sectors;(3) More the agricultural labor force would have been employed by the non-agricultural sectors had China been a market economy. (4) The elimination of these distortions would imply a significant improvement in allocation efficiency and a redistribution of income from labor to capital, from households to the state, and from urban households to rural households.     

The relationship between China's income inequality and transport infrastructure,economic growth,and carbon emissions

Since the beginning of the 21st century, accompanied by the tremendous achievements of China's economic growth is an increasingly severe income gap between the rich and the poor. Based on panel data from 2000 to 2018, this study systematically examined the relationship among transport infrastructure, economic growth, carbon emissions, and income inequality in China, using the panel vector autoregressive model estimated by the generalized method of moments. We further divided China into three regions to investigate the regional heterogeneity of these relationships. The results show a long‐run equilibrium relationship between transport infrastructure, economic growth, carbon emissions, and income inequality. Income inequality in the previous year significantly affects that in the current year positively. Whether at the national or regional level, economic growth affects income inequality negatively. For the national sample, the highway reduces income inequality, while the railway increases income inequality. For both the subsamples and the national sample, carbon emissions significantly increase income inequality and are the Granger test cause for income inequality. Furthermore, we discuss some of the possible mechanisms of these results. Our findings generate policy implications for reducing income inequality in regard to economic growth, transport infrastructure, and carbon emissions.