Forecast of Sulfur Deposition in Japan for Various Energy Supply and Emission Control Scenarios

In order to contribute to the analysis and solution of regional scale environmental problems in East Asia, we developed a tool for the comprehensive assessment of alternative policy options to improve air quality. This tool projects the future regional energy supply, calculates the emission levels of sulfur dioxide and estimates the geographical pattern of sulfur deposition resulting from emissions. Sulfur deposition in Japan through 2030 was forecasted for various energy supply and emission control scenarios using the analysis tool. Future sulfur depositions were calculated from the source-receptor matrix for 1995 and the growth rate of emission for the source subregion. In the case of the current legislation scenario, anthropogenic SO₂ emissions in East Asia would grow by 34 percent and sulfur deposition in Japan would increase by approximately 20 percent between 1995 and 2030. This increase in sulfur deposition over these 35 years is sligthly less than the contribution from volcanic emission to sulfur deposition in Japan. In the case of the hypothetical dirty scenario for China, sulfur deposition in several grids which face the Sea of Japan would double by 2030.     

Global scale transport of acidifying pollutants

During the past few years several attempts have been made to use three-dimensional tracer transport models to simulate the global distribution of sulfur and nitrogen compounds from both natural and anthropogenic sources. We review these studies and show examples of estimated distributions of the total deposition of sulfur, oxidized nitrogen and ammonium as well as the pH of precipitation. The simulated patterns are compared with observations. Weaknesses in these estimates resulting from lack of knowledge of emissions, chemical transformations and removal processes are emphasized and discussed. We also show examples of how the models can be used to estimate past and future deposition patterns. In particular, we use the IPCC scenario IS92a to estimate the possible sulfur deposition around the world in the year 2050. A comparison with critical load values for sulfur deposition indicates that substantial parts of South and East Asia are at risk for acidification problems in the future.     

Deriving critical loads for Asia

Critical loads have been computed and mapped in Southeast Asia, comprising China, Korea, Japan, The Philippines, Indo-China, Indonesia and the Indian subcontinent. The methodology involved the Steady-State Mass Balance (SSMB) method, originally developed for Europe. In contrast to Europe, where critical loads were computed for forest soils and surface waters, in Asia critical loads for 31 different vegetation types have been computed. Critical chemical limits as well as soil stability criteria were derived for each of these vegetation types, which include both natural and managed ecosystems. Results show that low critical loads in Asia occur in Bangla-Desh, Indo-China, Indonesia and the southern part of China. Uncertainties of the results are mainly due to uncertainties in base cation deposition. The critical loads are part of the impact module of the Asian version of the Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation model (RAINS-Asia), a model used to assess abatement strategies for sulfur emissions which are rapidly increasing in this part of the world. The difference in the level of detail between European and Asian critical load maps enables different applications. In Europe, critical loads for sulphur were used in comparison to actual sulphur deposition with the aim of decreasing the excess of sulphur deposition over critical loads through optimal emission abatement. In Asia in general and China in particular the geographical distribution of critical loads of sensitive ecosystems, with some emphasis on crops, is likely to be used as a basis for future emission (re-)allocation.     

The Importance of Calcium Deposition in Assessing Impacts of Acid Deposition in China

The extensive use of coal as an energy carrier in China has led to high deposition of sulfur in a large part of the country. In the southern part of China large areas receive acid deposition, while in the northern part of the country the acidity of the emissions is neutralized by alkaline dust from the desert areas. In this paper we demonstrate the importance of knowing the sources and deposition patterns of base cations when assessing the effects of changes in sulfur emissions. Regional-scale data of both sulfur and calcium deposition from modeling and monitoring are combined in order to demonstrate how the acidity of deposition in China has changed historically and may change in the future. The importance of base cation deposition is also demonstrated using the dynamic acidification model MAGIC with input data from an intensive monitoring site outside Guiyang. It is not known what fraction of the deposited base cations is of natural origin and anthropogenic origin, respectively. The relative source strength varies greatly between regions. Future effects of emission changes are highly dependent on the relative reduction in sulfur and base cation emissions.     

A Model Analysis of Transport of Sulfur Oxides in China and Outflow to the Sea

A numerical analysis of modeled long-range transport of sulfur oxides in the continental areas of East Asia with some verification was introduced. Although several modeling studies on acidic deposition in East Asia have been done, only few cases have verified in wide areas. In this study, the model calculation has been compared with the monthly averaged sulfur concentration in precipitation observed at 69 locations widely covering China from July 1992 through January 1993. Additionally, the atmosphericSO₂ ⁹⁰Sr concentration along the east coast of the continent was also compared with the observation in May 1993, and found to be reasonably consistent. Basing on these comparisons, the budget of sulfur oxides in China, especially about the outflow from the east coast to the sea areas was examined considering the seasonal variation of distribution of wet deposition and the pathways of atmospheric sulfur oxides. The seasonal variation of these indices was found to have large difference between the north and the south of 35°N. The outflow from the east coast increased remarkably in winter due to the decrease of deposition in the inland areas along the transport pathways.     

An analysis of wet deposition of sulfate using a trajectory model for East Asia

A long-range transport model for East Asia was developed to estimate the wet deposition of sulfate. The model is a trajectory type which is appropriate for long-term analysis. Trajectories of air masses are calculated by tracing the wind field which changes spatially and temporally. The processes of reactions, rainout removal, intake of sulfate in cloud water into rain water, and dry and wet depositions are considered. It is possible to calculate the concentration of sulfate in precipitation at a receptor by performing material balance in a grid box containing the receptor.The results obtained by the long-range transport model were evaluated through comparison with observation data of acidic deposition. The observation was conducted at 21 stations throughout Japan for one year. The calculated amount of wet deposition of sulfate in Japan was 0.22Tg/y in S equivalent, while the observed amount was 0.29Tg/y. The long-range transport model can predict almost 80% of observed wet deposition. The contributions of domestic anthropogenic sources and volcanic eruption to wet deposition of sulfate in Japan were estimated using the longrange transport model. The ratio of the deposition of sulfate due to Japanese anthropogenic sources to that due to the Asian continental sources was about 1 to 2. Since air stream from the direction of the Asian continent dominates during winter, the contribution of Japan to wet deposition in the region which faces the Sea of Japan amounted to less than 15%. The contribution of the sulfur oxides from volcanoes was about 20%.     

An integrated analysis of sulfur emissions,acid deposition and climate change

This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO₂ emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.     

A Mixed-Integer Optimization Technique for Developing a Sulfur Emission Control Strategy for China

The economical development and increasing population of China and other East Asian countries is expected to be accompanied by an increase in the emission of air pollutants. The objective of this study is to develop an effective and economical emission control strategy for sulfur in East Asia. There are existing methods for controlling sulfur emission, such as changing to lower sulfur content fuel, introducing desulfurization devices for emission sources, and promoting efficient energy use. The applicability of such measures is restricted by both energy supply and control cost, amongst other concerns. As a case study, an optimal control strategy based on the estimated sulfur emission for China in 2010, is simulated using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming technique with several restrictions that satisfies, among other constraints, the atmospheric environment requirements for SO₂ and the soil load limit for SO₄ deposition.     

酸沉降对生态环境的影响

阐述了酸沉降产生的原因及其对生态环境和人类健康的影响,指出由于矿质燃料的燃烧、人为排放SO_2和NO_x导致气溶胶和云雨逐渐酸化。当森林暴露在高浓度SO_2和NO_x下时森林会衰退,表现为叶片发黄和落叶甚至死亡,土壤持续酸化导致盐基离子淋失和土壤溶液中铝离子富集是森林衰退的主要机制,土壤养分亏缺也是森林衰退的主要原因。在酸沉降敏感地区水体酸化和铝离子富集造成湖泊和河流严重酸化及鱼类大量损失。酸沉降与气态污染对水生与陆地生态系统造成大面积损害,并影响到人类的健康。     

Material Damage Caused by Acidic Air Pollution in East Asia

Atmospheric and laboratory corrosion tests were carried out to assess the intensity of air pollution in East Asia. Qualitative and quantitative atmospheric corrosion was estimated from the damage caused to bronze, copper, steel, marble, cedar, cypress and urushi (Japanese lacquer) plates, exposed to outdoor and indoor airs in some cities of East Asia. Brochantite and cuprite were formed on copper at sites where the sulfur dioxide concentrations were high, and basic cupric nitrate and cuprite at sites where nitrogen dioxide concentrations were high. Gypsum was formed on marble pieces exposed to indoor air at all sites but was not found on pieces exposed to outdoor air. Numerous fine spots (0.2–0.3 mm in diameter) were observed on surfaces of urushi plates exposed at foggy cities such as Chongqing, China and Taejon, Korea. The effects of atmospheric and meteorological factors on the damage to copper and marble plates in several cities in East Asia were estimated using regression analysis. The results indicate that sulfur dioxide is the most destructive of materials especially in China and South Korea. In Japan copper plates may be damaged under natural conditions and by sea salt. Copper may also be damaged by surface deposition of sulfur and chlorine. Marble may be substantially degraded by gaseous sulfur dioxide but sulfate ions in rain had no effect. The analysis of air pollution from the point of view of material damage was very useful in evaluating and visualizing the intensity of air pollution in East Asia.     

Development of the Regional Policy Process for Air Pollution in South Asia,Southern Africa and Latin America

Projections indicate that large increases in emissions may occur in developing countries during the next twenty to fifty years if current development patterns persist. This paper describes the development of co-operation regarding air pollution issues in three sub-regions of three continents. Experiences gained through activities within a programme on Regional Air Pollution in Developing Countries are used to illustrate progress. The sub-regional process in South Asia developed through a series of meetings that led to the Malé Declaration. In southern Africa a policy dialogue led to the Harare Resolution targeted towards progress in the SADC region. A policy dialogue in Buenos Aires concentrated on issues related to regional harmonisation of legal frameworks in the Mercosur region. In all regions the link between scientific information required to support decision making has been emphasised. The sub-regional policy processes are analysed in relation to availability of required scientific information and compared to the process that led to protocol development in Europe.     

Predicting Recovery from Acidic Deposition: Applying a Modified TAF (Tracking and Analysis Framework) Model to Maine (USA) High Elevation Lakes

We adapted a reduced-form model, built to predict the aquatic effects of alternative nitrogen and sulfur emissions scenarios on Adirondack lakes, New York, for use on high elevation lakes of Maine (HELM), USA. The Tracking and Analysis Framework (TAF) model was originally designed to evaluate the biotic, economic, and health effects of acid deposition. The TAF model developed in our study was used to assess the biotic effects of different levels of sulfate deposition resulting from alternative emissions scenarios. The aquatic portion of the model is based on a lumped-parameter watershed chemistry model, MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments). The original TAF model was built by calibrating MAGIC to 33 lakes in the Adirondack Mountains. We calibrated MAGIC to 78 HELM lakes, and built reduced-form models from these MAGIC predictions. We evaluated TAF predictions of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), a fish acid stress index (ASI), and the probability of fish presence in 2030 for four different SO₂ emissions-reduction scenarios. The most dramatic emissions reduction scenario produced only modest increases in mean ANC (16.8 μeq/L ± 7.9 μeq/L) and slight increases in mean predicted probability of presence of acid-sensitive fish (0.07± 0.09) across all lakes. However, a small number of lakes were predicted to have more substantial increases in ANC and improvements in other conditions for acid-sensitive fish. Our results reflect the reality that many of the high elevation lakes of Maine historically had low ANC and that some were even acidic in pre-industrial times. Thus, ’recovery’ for most of the high elevation lakes of Maine will be modest under any scenario of reduced acidic deposition.     

Pattern and cause of acidic deposition in the Chongqing region,Sichuan Province,China

The Chongqing region located in Sichuan Province of China, comprises a large city, many small towns and rural areas. The region relies heavily on high-sulfur coal for energy production. Atmospheric pollution by sulfur oxides and other compounds from coal burning has become a major issue. Acid rain is observed throughout the region; volume weighted average pH is about 4.30. Average total S deposition for the region is estimated to be about 8 g S m^?2 yr^?1. In this paper we report concentrations of major ions in rain, fog, dew and clouds, of SO₂ in air and of airborne particles as well as dustfall. The emissions and interactions between important chemical species in air and water droplets are discussed.     

Sulfur Deposition in Asia: Seasonal Behavior and Contributions from Various Energy Sectors

Sulfur transport and deposition in Asia, on an annual andseasonal basis, is analyzed using the ATMOS model. Calculationsare performed for two complete years (1990 and 1995). Deposition amounts in excess of 0.5 g S m^-2 yr^-1 are estimated for large regions in Asia, with values as high as 10 g S m^-2 yr^-1 in southeastern China. Annual averaged SO₂ concentrations in excess of 20 μg SO₂ m^-3 are calculated for many urban and suburban areas ofeastern China and S. Korea, with an average of 5 μg SO₂ m^-3 over most of the emitter regions. Sulfur deposition by major source categories is also studied. Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore)receives ～25% of its sulfur deposition from shipping activities. Sulfur deposition from bio-fuel burning is significant for most of the underdeveloped regions in Asia. Volcanoes are a major source of sulfur emissions in the PacificOcean, Papua New Guinea, Philippines and Southern Japan. Sulfur deposition is shown to vary significantly throughout the year.The monsoons are found to be the largest factor controlling sulfur transport and deposition in the Indian sub-continent andSoutheast Asia. India receives over 35% of its total depositionduring the summer months. In East Asia, sulfur deposition isestimated to be 10% higher during summer and fall than winterand spring. Model results are compared with observations from a number of monitoring networks in Asia and are found to be generally consistent with the limited observations.     

Acidic deposition in California: Findings from a program of monitoring and effects research

California's 14-year, $25 million acidic deposition program has studied the causes and effects of acidic air pollutants. In contrast to the eastern United States where sulfur-derived (S-derived) by-products from coal combustion dominate precipitation chemistry, nitrogen-derived (N-derived) acids predominate in wet and dry deposition in California. Adverse effects on the human lung have not been observed after short-term exposures to acidity, but extended exposures to ambient acidity may pose a chronic risk. No irreversible, adverse effects on surface waters in the Sierra Nevada mountain range or to the state's forests have been found due to extant acidic inputs. The longer-term outlook for forests is less certain because the impacts observed elsewhere occurred after decades of S and N deposition, but at lower ambient ozone levels. Ozone is the major air pollutant stressor for forests, but atmospheric N has the potential to cause adverse changes in soil nutrient cycling. Impacts on man-made materials in southern California (e.g., galvanized steel) were found to be minor. While California does not have an ambient air quality standard for acidic air pollutants, emissions of precursors have declined since the 1960's due to changes in industrial practices, improvements in technology, and adoption of control measures for ozone. Lowering emissions from motor vehicles will be emphasized to prevent future increases in N deposition.     

Trends in Emissions of Acidifying Species in Asia, 1985–1997

Acid deposition is a serious problem throughout much of Asia. Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) have been increasing steadily, as nations strive to increase their levels of economic development. Coal and fuel oil have been the main choices for powering industrial development; and, until recently, only a few countries had taken steps to avert the atmospheric emissions that accompany fuel combustion. This paper discusses trends in emissions of SO₂ and NO_x that have occurred in Asian countries in the period 1985–1997, using results from the RAINS-Asia computer model and energy-use trends from the IEA Energy Statistics and Balances database. Emissions of SO₂ in Asia grew from 26.6 Tg in 1985 to 33.7 Tg in 1990 and 39.2 Tg in 1997. Though SO₂ emissions used to grow as fast as fossil-fuel use, recent limitations on the sulfur content of coal and oil have slowed the growth. The annual-average emissions growth between 1990 and 1997 was only 2.2%, considerably less than the economic growth rate. Emissions of NO_x, on the other hand, continue to grow rapidly, from 14.1 Tg in 1985 to 18.7 Tg in 1990 and 28.5 Tg in 1997 (6.2% per year between 1990 and 1997), with no signs of abating. Thus, though SO₂ remains the major contributor to acidifying emissions in Asia, the role of NO_x will become more and more important in the future.     

INCREASING ROLE OF NITROGEN IN THE ACIDIFICATION OF SURFACE WATERS IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS,NEW YORK

Assessments of the aquatic effects of acidic deposition have focused on sulfur, as have recent efforts to control the emissions of acidifying compounds. Nitrogen dynamics were excluded from most acidic deposition modeling studies because it was believed that terrestrial ecosystems strongly retain N and because modeling N is a more formidable task than modeling S due to the influence of complex biological processes on N cycling. Re-examination of available data for the Adirondack Mountains of New York suggests that N deposition may be contributing to both chronic and episodic acidification of freshwaters to a greater extent than is generally believed. Previous research concluded that N has played a limited role in acidification processes in these lakes, based on regional averages of chronic chemistry. However, it is now known that historic acidification responses have been spatially variable within the Adirondack Mountains and that the declines in lakewater pH have been less than previously believed. Lakewater NO₃ ^- concentrations are commonly in the range of 5 to 25 μeq L^-1 on a chronic basis in portions of the Adirondack region that have experienced significant chronic acidification. These NO₃ ^- concentrations correspond in magnitude to inferred historical acidification. Furthermore, the relative importance of NO₃ ^- as an agent of acidification increases dramatically during snowmelt when conditions are most toxic to fish. The consequence of not addressing N in formulating acidification recovery strategies for the Adirondacks includes the likelihood that we will overestimate the response of surface water to the mandated sulfur emissions reductions.     

Long-range transport and deposition of sulfur in Asia

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution - The long range transport of sulfur in Asia is analyzed through the use of a multi-dimensional acid deposition model. The air quality of this region is heavily...     

An Approach to Temporally Disaggregate Benzo(a)pyrene Emissions and Their Application to a 3D Eulerian Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model

To simulate the atmospheric fate of air pollutants, it is first necessary to know the emission rates that describe the release of pollutants into ambient air. For benzo(a)pyrene emission data are currently only available as yearly bulk emissions while the simulation models typically require temporally resolved emissions (e.g. hourly). Because residential heating is by far the most important source for benzo(a)pyrene, we developed a method to temporally disaggregate these bulk emission data using the linear dependency of benzo(a)pyrene emission rates stemming from residential combustion on ambient temperature. The resulting time-dependent hourly emission rates have been used in a chemical transport model to simulate concentrations and deposition fluxes of benzo(a)pyrene in the year 2000. The same simulations were repeated with constant emission rates and emission rates that varied only seasonally. By comparing the modeling results of the three emission cases with monthly measurements of air concentrations, the characteristic and the benefit of our disaggregation approach is illustrated. The simulations with disaggregated emissions fitted best to the measurements. At the same time the spatial distribution as well as the yearly total deposition was notably different with each emission case even though the yearly total emissions were kept constant.     

Long-Range Transport of Sulfur from Northeast Asia to Chengshantu, Shandong Peninsula: Measurement and Simulation

Observations of air pollutants were conducted at Chengshantu in January 1996 to clarify the extent of trans-boundary pollution from the Asian continent. A nested air quality prediction modeling system (NAQPMS), which included parameters on emission, transport, diffusion, deposition and transformation of sulfur oxides, was performed to compile sulfur concentrations over the observation site. The model calculation reproduced the observed variations of sulfur oxides and sulfate well, although the model calculations could not reproduce the extensively low sulfate concentrations. Using nesting improves the ability of the modeling system to capture peak episodes seen in the observations. Calculation of the origins of deposited sulfur in each country with the NAQPMS shows that the long-range transport of sulfur is very serious. For Japan, 49% of sulfur deposition was from other countries during the campaign period.