An analysis of wet deposition of sulfate using a trajectory model for East Asia

A long-range transport model for East Asia was developed to estimate the wet deposition of sulfate. The model is a trajectory type which is appropriate for long-term analysis. Trajectories of air masses are calculated by tracing the wind field which changes spatially and temporally. The processes of reactions, rainout removal, intake of sulfate in cloud water into rain water, and dry and wet depositions are considered. It is possible to calculate the concentration of sulfate in precipitation at a receptor by performing material balance in a grid box containing the receptor.The results obtained by the long-range transport model were evaluated through comparison with observation data of acidic deposition. The observation was conducted at 21 stations throughout Japan for one year. The calculated amount of wet deposition of sulfate in Japan was 0.22Tg/y in S equivalent, while the observed amount was 0.29Tg/y. The long-range transport model can predict almost 80% of observed wet deposition. The contributions of domestic anthropogenic sources and volcanic eruption to wet deposition of sulfate in Japan were estimated using the longrange transport model. The ratio of the deposition of sulfate due to Japanese anthropogenic sources to that due to the Asian continental sources was about 1 to 2. Since air stream from the direction of the Asian continent dominates during winter, the contribution of Japan to wet deposition in the region which faces the Sea of Japan amounted to less than 15%. The contribution of the sulfur oxides from volcanoes was about 20%.     

Concentration and deposition of acidifying air pollutants over Sweden: Estimates for 1991 based on the match model and observations

The MATCH (Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry) model has been developed as a tool for air pollution assessment studies on different geographical scales. MATCH is an Eulerian atmospheric dispersion model, including physical and chemical processes governing sources, atmospheric transport and sinks of oxidized sulfur and oxidized and reduced nitrogen. Using a combination of air and precipitation chemistry measurements and the MATCH model, the national and long-range transport contributions to air pollution and deposition can be quantified in the model region. The calculations for the year 1991 show that the Swedish import was about 4.5 times larger than the export for sulfur and about six times larger for reduced nitrogen, while the Swedish import of oxidized nitrogen only exceeded the export by 10%. Using the MATCH system we estimate the long-range transport in an independent way compared to EMEP. Comparison between the EMEP and MATCH calculations for 1991 show that the total deposition of oxidized nitrogen over Sweden is similar, while the EMEP-values for total deposition of oxidized sulfur and reduced nitrogen are 25% respectively 40% smaller than what is obtained from MATCH.     

Modeling of first plume encounters with precipitation

A regional air pollutant transport model was used to simulate the fate of S emissions in the northeast United States. Hourly calculations were analyzed to describe trajectory characteristics and mass balances as pollutant trajectories first encounter precipitation during transport away from emission sources. Model results include air concentrations of SO₂ and sulfate, dry deposition values, and sulfate concentrations scavenged by precipitation, along with trajectory statistics. Results of sensitivity tests are compared to base case simulations which consider all precipitation events as a means of suggesting priorities for future regional transport model development.     

An Eulerian model for atmospheric transport of heavy metals over Europe: Model description and preliminary results

This paper presents the Heavy Metals Eulerian Transport (HMET) model and simulation results for Europe for 1985. The HMET model takes into account emission, atmospheric transport and deposition of As, Cd, Pb and Zn computed on the EMEP grid system. Meteorological inputs consist of the velocity field at 925 hPa, precipitation and mixing height. Velocity field and precipitation are updated every 6 hr during the model run. New values of mixing height are available every 24 hr. The dry deposition velocities for each metal are variable in space and depend on the particle distribution function for each particular metal. Wet deposition is proportional to the precipitation intensity for the previous 6 hr and a constant scavenging ratio. Model equations are solved by means of the positive definite pseudospectral method which provides accurate numerical solutions for the advection problem. Comparison of the model results with available observations for 1985 indicate a good agreement for Cd and Pb, sufficient egreement for As and serious underestimation for Zn. Since the number of available observations for heavy metals in Europe in 1985 is relatively small, the model results presented in this paper should be considered as preliminary. However, the HMET model performance in computing these results shows that it can be easily and efficiently used as an operational tool and is especially useful for estimating transboundary transport of heavy metals in Europe.     

A Numerical Simulation of Acid Deposition in East Asia

The goal of the present study is to do a long term simulation and to derive a source receptor-relation using a comprehensive Eulerian acid deposition model coupled with a dynamic meteorological model. The selected modeling period is from March 1 to April 30, 1996. A dynamic meteorological model named MM5 was first used to calculate meteorological fields and then STEM preprocessors were invoked to generate dry deposition velocities and eddy diffusivities. Finally, a multi-scale STEM was applied to simulate both wet and dry acid deposition phenomena. The source-receptor relations were also estimated for sulfate and nitrate species using a counter species method. The model results for SO₂ and O₃ agree very well with measurements. However the model under-predicts the NO₂ concentration due to insufficient grid resolution as well as due to inaccurate field measurement. The transport contribution for total mass and wet deposition is much larger than that of dry deposition.     

Modeling studies on sulfur deposition and transport in East Asia

A three dimensional regional Eulerian model of sulfur deposition and tranport has been developed. It includes emission, transport, diffusion, gas-phase and aqeous-phase chemical process, dry depostion, rainout and washout process. A looking up table method is provided to deal with the gas-phase chemical process including sulfur transfer. Calculated values have reasonable agreement with observations. Distribution of sulfur deposition and transport in East Asia are also analyzed in the paper. Simulation shows that sulfate (SO ₄ ^2– ) is the main substance to transport in long range transport. Some amount of sulfur emission of different countries transport across boundaries, but the main origin of sulfur deposition in each country in East Asia is from herself. Furthermore, some transport paths on different layers and outlet or inlet zones are found.     

An Efficient ELLAM Implementation for Modeling Solute Transport in Fractured Porous Media

The goal of this study is to introduce an adaptation of the Eulerian-Lagrangian localized adjoint method (ELLAM) for the simulation of mass transport in fractured porous media, and to evaluate the performance of ELLAM in such a case. The fractures are represented explicitly using the discrete fracture model. The velocity field was calculated using the mixed hybrid finite element method. A sound ELLAM implementation is developed to address numerical artifacts (spurious oscillations and numerical dispersion) arising from the presence of fractures. The efficiency of the developed ELLAM implementation was further improved by taking advantage of the parallel computing on shared memory architecture for the tasks related to particles tracking and linear system resolving. The performance of ELLAM was tested by comparing its results with the Eulerian discontinuous Galerkin method based on several benchmark problems dealing with different fracture configurations. The results highlight the robustness and accuracy of ELLAM, as it allows the use of large time steps, and overcomes the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) restriction. The outcome also shows that ELLAM is more efficient when fracture density is increased.     

Uncertainty Analysis of Regional Mercury Exposure

A modeling system has been developed to simulate regional environmental exposure to mercury due to atmospheric deposition of mercury to watersheds. The atmospheric fate and transport of mercury is simulated using a comprehensive three-dimensional Eulerian model, the Trace Element Atmospheric Model (TEAM). The aquatic chemistry and bioaccumulation of mercury in fish are simulated using a model of mercury cycling in a lake/watershed system, the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM). Fish consumption was derived from a review of available surveys. Previous work focused on an assessment of the environmental and inter-individual variability in key input data (Seigneur et al., 1997a). We address here the uncertainties associated with critical model input variables (e.g., atmospheric deposition velocities, precipitation rate, limnological characteristics). A probabilistic assessment is conducted to propagate the uncertainties in the input data through the modeling system and develop a probability distribution of the human mercury dose that reflects these uncertainties. The standard deviation of the distribution of the calculated human dose is about 50% of the mean value. For the example considered here (i.e., Park Lake in Michigan, U.S.A.), 80% of the uncertainty in the human dose was due to uncertainties in the speciation of mercury air emissions, pH and temperature of the lake, burial velocity of the sediments, and rate of fish consumption.     

Incorporation of wind roses in a statistical long-range pollution transport model

A modified version of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment Statistical Long-Range Transport (LRT) Model has been developed at the University of Waterloo. The model incorporates wind rose data at pollutant sources and receptors to reflect the percent of time that a source pollutant plume is affecting a down-wind receptor. Comparison of output to results generated by complex LRT models (i.e., the AES and MOE Lagrangian models) has demonstrated that the modified model results replicate complex model results fairly well. However, the model presented preserves the advantages of low execution costs and simple data input. This benefit permits the user to efficiently simulate a large number of LRT scenarios.     

Optimization of emission reductions to reduce atmospheric sulphur deposition in Europe: An examination of a methodology

An examination has been made of the use of the LRT model of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, which estimates the atmospheric exchanges of sulphur among 28 countries in Europe, to formulate optimized emission reduction scenarios. According to the methodology, emission reductions are needed in at least several countries to bring about a deposition reduction in a given country. However, it is most effective to reduce emissions in or near the country where deposition reductions are desired. To reduce deposition further, it is more effective to further reduce nearby emissions, rather than to seek additional emission reductions farther afield. Because of the complex distribution of strong source regions in Europe, an assessment of the advantages of an optimized emission reduction pattern over a uniform reduction scheme must await the better definition of deposition targets and the location where they are to be applied.     

Modelling Acidic Deposition in the United Kingdom at a Scale of 5 Km by 5 Km

This paper discusses the use of a long-term Lagrangian receptor-oriented trajectory model for assessing acidic deposition to the United Kingdom at high spatial resolution. Previously, a coarse resolution of 20 km was used. Impact assessments using the critical loads approach now require higher-resolutions of modelled data for future scenarios. In this paper, first results from a higher resolution of 5 km using a revised parameterization of orographic enhancement of the seeder-feeder effect. It was found that country budgets for the two different model resolutions were in good agreement and compared well with observations, except in the far north of Scotland where the straight-line trajectory approach is less valid.     

Long-term modelling of airborne pollution within the Northern Hemisphere

A long-term modelling (1991–1994) of oxidised sulphur, bound nitrogen and some heavy metals has been carried out by MSC-E/EMEP for the Northern Hemisphere. The transport unit of the model is an Eulerian scheme which could be classified as Pseudo-Lagrangian one. Vertical distribution described by means of Gaussian approximation and the exchange with the free troposphere are taken into account. Vertical movement is calculated proceeding from local mixing conditions, state of the surface, its height (topography) etc. The chemical unit for acid compounds contains 25 reactions and 14 compounds including sulphur and nitrogen compounds peroxyacetylnitrate, tropospheric ozone, volatile hydrocarbons (but methane) are considered as a whole via ozone creation potential. The model time step is 1 hour, meteorological data (winds, temperature, precipitation etc.) cover 6-hour intervals. The model results show that very significant part of the Arctic and West Asian acid pollution is produced by European countries. On the whole the Arctic pollution by SO_x, NO_x and NH_x comes from sources of Old World. The main source of sulphur pollution is located in Russia and of nitrogen compound — in Central and Northern Europe. About 50% SO_x, 70% NO_x and 40% NH_x deposition in Central Asia and Kazakhstan is-imported from external sources. A similar situation is observed in European and Asian parts of Russia.     

Computing atmospheric transport and deposition of heavy metals over Europe: Country budgets for 1985

The Heavy Metal Eulerian Transport (HMET) model has been used to calculate the exchange of As, Cd, Pb and Zn between European countries in 1985. The model was run separately for each emitter country and the computed deposition field was used to calculate the contribution of the emitter to each receptor country. The results of these computations are presented in the form of a country budget matrix for each metal. Accuracy of such computations is dependant on the size and linearity of the numerical method applied to the transport equation. Exchange of heavy metals due to atmospheric transport over Europe is significant. Approximately 30% to 90% of the heavy metals emitted from each country is deposited in other countries. The remaining mass is deposited in European seas, Atlantic Ocean and transported outside the model domain. The largest part of the emission from each country is deposited in the same country. The next largest fraction is transported to the nearest neighbors. The results indicate also a significant long range ransport of heavy metals to the Soviet Union. This is partly justified by the size and location of this receptor country, as well as, the prevailing meteorological conditions in Europe. However, this large transport to USSR is slightly overestimated due to some artificial properties of the numerical method applied to basic model equations. In addition to the country budget, export versus import and emission versus deposition of metals were analyzed for each country. The largest positive difference between export and import was found for Poland, German Federal Republic and Yugoslavia (As, Cd and Zn), and United Kingdom, Italy and Belgium (Pb). The Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia are the countries where import of all metals is significantly larger than export. When emission versus deposition of heavy metals is analyzed, the Soviet Union has much higher emissions than deposition of all metals compared to other European countries.     

Modeling scour and deposition in ephemeral channels after wildfire

The area burned by wildfire in the states of Arizona and New Mexico in the southwestern US has been increasing in recent years. In many cases, high severity burns have caused dramatic increases in runoff and sediment yield from burned watersheds. This paper describes the potential and limitations of the HEC6T sediment transport model to describe changes in channel scour and deposition following the Cerro Grande fire near Los Alamos, New Mexico. Following the fire, Pueblo Canyon, near Los Alamos, was subject to a peak flow two orders of magnitudes higher than any discharge in the 7-year period of record, and twice the initial post-fire estimate of the 100-year event. HEC6T requires that the limits of scour and deposition on a cross-section be specified prior to application. This was achieved by using geomorphologic principles, predicted post-burn hydrology and long-term estimates of channel change derived from air photos, to estimate post-fire channel widths. Because significant quantities of silt and clay were present in the runoff, erosion shear stress and erosion rate parameters for cohesive sediments had to be obtained experimentally. After a sensitivity analysis, an optimization routine was used to estimate the optimal model parameter values for sensitive parameters. HEC6T was able to accurately model the change in cumulative sediment volume change derived from Airborne Laser Swath Mapping (ALSM, often called Lidar) taken before and after the large post-fire event. One discrepancy between the HEC6T model prediction and the ALSM-estimated change was that the ALSM-estimated change showed the greatest amount of deposition in a portion of the canyon with increasing slope, which the HEC6T model did not predict. Any sediment transport model will predict increased sediment transport capacity with increasing energy slope, so that it was considered to be beyond the capability of any sediment transport model to predict this deposition. Therefore, HEC6T simulated the overall changes in scour and deposition within reasonable expectation of the capabilities of physically-based sediment transport modeling indicating that it is capable of modeling sediment transport in ephemeral channels following wildfire.     

Black Acidic Rime Ice in the Remote Island of Yakushima, a World Natural Heritage Area

In order to clarify the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants in the East Asian regions, we have studied the components in rime ice on Yakushima Island, located in southwestern Japan near the China continent. The presence of a large number of particles has been found in the rime ice. Very small particles whose diameters are around 1 µm were identified as coal fly ash. The air mass at an altitude between 1500 m to 2000 m was probably long-range transported in association with a stable atmospheric layer in which the particles were efficiently scavenged by supercooled droplets. A back trajectory analysis also indicated the predominance of a north wind in the winter and in the other seasons as well. Such transport and deposition mechanisms may produce the greater pollutant deposition sometimes observed in mountain areas. Similar events may not be rare and could make an important contribution to the annual pollutants.     

Uncertainties in long-term predictions of forest soil acidification due to neglecting seasonal variability

Soil and soil solution response simulated with a site-scale soil acidification model (NUCSAM) was compared with results obtained by a regional soil acidification model (RESAM). RESAM is a multi-layer model with a temporal resolution of one year. In addition to RESAM, NUCSAM takes seasonal variability into account since it simulates solute transport and biogeochemical processes on a daily basis. Consequently, NUCSAM accounts for seasonal variation in deposition, precipitation, transpiration, litterfall, mineralization and root uptake. Uncertainty caused by the neglect of seasonal variability in long-term predictions was investigated by a comparison of long-term simulations with RESAM and NUCSAM. Two deposition scenarios for the period 1990–2090 were evaluated. The models were parameterized and validated by using data from an intensively monitored spruce site at Solling, Germany. Although both the seasonal and the interannual variation in soil solution parameters were large, the trends in soil solution parameters of RESAM and NUCSAM corresponded quite well. The leaching fluxes were almost similar. Generally it appeared that the uncertainty due to time resolution in long-term predictions was relatively small.     

Development and validation of a quasi-Gaussian plume model for the transport of botanical spores

Aerial dispersal of inoculum is the primary means of movement for many plant diseases. One of the challenges of modern decision support for plant health is to provide predictions of the influx of viable pathogen inoculum from sources outside a crop. Such prediction in a practical setting requires prediction tools that have modest computing and input requirements, yet provide sufficiently accurate predictions. In this paper a hybrid dispersion model is developed, combining Taylor's statistical theory of diffusion for horizontal dispersal with the eddy diffusion theory as implemented in the Lagrangian similarity diffusion model of [van Ulden, A.P., 1978. Simple estimates for vertical diffusion from sources near the ground. Atmos. Environ. 12, 2119–2124] and [Gryning, S.E., van Ulden, A.P., Larsen, S.E., 1983. Dispersion from a continuous ground-level source investigated by a K model. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 109, 355–364]. The model is extended with a dry deposition method and an effective source strength. Model results are compared with experimental data for the transport of artificially released spores of Lycopodium clavatum above a potato canopy. The numerical results are in close agreement with the experimental data, which cover distances up to 100 m. Numerical predictions are compared to those produced by two alternative model versions and a previously published Gaussian plume model for the transport of spores above potato canopies. The potential for practical implementation of atmospheric dispersion models in plant disease decision support systems is discussed.     

A framework for examining inter-regional aerial transport of fungal spores

Aerial transport of fungal spores has no doubt been responsible for occasionally spreading plant diseases over distances of 500 km or more. With currently available methods, however, there is little basis for estimating the likelihood of such occurrences. Models capable of estimating the relative probability of infection of a crop from known sizes of local or distant sources of pathogenic spores could help farmers with decisions about fungicide use, local sanitation and quarantine. A logical framework for estimating long-distance transport of viable spores is presented which encompasses: production of spores at the source region, escape of spores into the air above the diseased crops, transport and dilution of spores in the atmosphere, survival of airborne spores and deposition of spores onto a distant crop. Hypothetical examples of spore transport over 700 km are calculated to illustrate the relative magnitudes of the five parts of the spore transport process. Although the combined uncertainties in spore transport are estimated to be a factor of 10⁴–10⁶, this should be compared to the expected factor of 10¹³ dilution of spore concentration experienced by a cloud of spores after having been transported through the atmosphere for 700 km. The largest uncertainties lie in our ability to estimate daily spore production in a geographic region, survival of spores while airborne and deposition of spores during rainfall. Survival of spores and deposition of spores during rainfall are difficult to predict because of temporal and spatial variations in weather. To account for this, it will be necessary in the future to combine the physical model of spore transport described here with weather records and air parcel trajectory calculations to develop a “climatology” of danger of disease transmission between geographic regions.     

The Impact of Atmospheric Deposition of Non-Acidifying Substances on the Quality of European Forest Soils and the North Sea

In the pilot study ESQUAD the impact of atmospheric deposition of three heavy metals (cadmium, copper and lead) and two persistent organic pollutants (benzo(a)-pyrene and lindane) on the quality of European soils and seawater has been calculated. Calculations have been made of atmospheric transport and deposition using a detailed emissions database for Europe. This enabled deposition maps to be produced to a resolution of approximately 50 km. The distribution of pollutant concentrations in forest soils was calculated for each grid cell using a database of soil property parameters in Europe. For the North Sea, a model was used to map long-term concentrations in water and sediment, which are due to atmospheric deposition and other, non-atmospheric sources. The model calculations allowed detailed comparisons of deposition fluxes and concentrations of the substances studied with critical loads and environmental quality threshold values, including critical loads. Although significant uncertainties were identified, the study gives insight in how threshold exceedance rates in Europe relate to pollutant type, threshold type, environmental compartment and chemophysical phase (adsorbed, dissolved). For all pollutants and for all compartments exceedances were calculated for at least some of the quality thresholds that were chosen.