Drought analysis in Antakya-Kahramanmara? Graben,Turkey

The most parts of the Earth experience precipitation variability as a part of their normal climates over both short- and long-time periods. These variations of precipitation will have unpredictable and perhaps unexpectedly extreme consequences(such as drought and flood) with respect to frequency and intensity for many regions of the Earth. Because of high precipitation fluctuations, the Mediterranean region is also the areas of the world sensitive to precipitation changes which often involve frequent drought conditions in Turkey. In this study, drought conditions at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales over the period of 1975–2010 were examined for Antakya-Kahramanmara? Graben which is located in the eastern part of the Mediterranean region of Turkey. Application of appropriate measures to analyze and monitor droughts is recognized as a major challenge to scientists involved in atmospheric studies. Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) and cumulative deviation curve techniques were used to determine drought conditions. Results indicated that the study area presented a cyclic pattern of variations with alternating drier and wetter years. From analyses of annual, seasonal and monthly drought series it can be seen that precipitation characteristic of the area is changing. By the results, apparent wet and dry periods can be distinguished. This study also indicated that precipitation totals of winter, spring and summer seasons were slightly decreased during the study period. Drought frequency was increased especially for the northern part of the area in the last ten years. Drought periods were divided into 1982–1985, 1999–2002 and 2004–2008, respectively. According to our analyses, the time scale of 1999–2002 was the driest period in the most of the graben area. The study area, which covers agriculturally important fertile alluvial plains, will experience increasing pressure on its water resources because of its growing population and industry, ever-larger demands for intensive agricultural activities, and frequent drought events.     

干旱区精河流域地表温度的模型反演研究

以精河流域绿洲为研究区,使用Landsat ETM⁺数据,采用单窗算法和普适性单通道算法对研究区地表温度进行反演,并将这两种算法的反演结果与研究区MODIS温度产品(MODIS LST)进行比较。结果表明：(1) 单窗算法和普适性单通道算法反演的结果总体趋势比较接近,研究区整体的平均温度相差约2k;(2) 采用改进型土壤调整植被指数(MSAVI)代替归一植被指数(NDVI)计算地表比辐射率可有效提高反演精度,并且同等条件下单窗算法的反演精度高于普适性单通道算法,两种算法的反演结果与MODIS LST的相关系数分别是0.9255和0.8651;(3) 在城镇区域,普适性单通道算法反演结果与MSAVI的相关性高于单窗算法,相关系数为0.8136,说明普适性单通道算法更适合干旱区大范围城镇地表温度的反演研究。     

基于热红外遥感的小麦条锈病菌越夏区精准勘界

为减少小麦条锈病菌越夏区勘界的人力作业成本和劳动强度,实现大尺度、精准勘界,本研究采用一套基于卫星和地理信息技术的新方法进行小麦条锈病菌越夏区勘界,利用2009年7月的Landsat-5卫星图像,截取甘肃省陇南地区热红外遥感影像,利用辐射传输方程对影像进行地表温度反演,通过反演温度实现对该区域的小麦条锈病菌越夏区精准勘界。结果表明:辐射传输方程L_λ=[ε·B(T_s)+(1-ε)L↓]·f+L能较好地反演Landsat-5卫星的热红外遥感影像,建立辐射温度与气温温度的拟合方程t=0.81T-216.52,拟合度较好,R~2为0.61。使用ENVI和Google Earth软件能将反演的温度和地理信息实现图层叠加,并能精准定位到小麦条锈病菌越夏区范围内的村庄及田块。这一技术可实现跨省份、跨地区大面积的遥感监测与调查,并且不受时间、空间限制。随着卫星技术和信息技术的发展,这一方法能使与温度相关的勘界调查精度更高。     

MODIS数据支持下的西藏干旱遥感监测

干旱的频繁发生已经成为影响西藏农业生产最严重的自然灾害之一,干旱给农业造成的巨大损失引起了各级政府部门的高度重视。对地观测卫星(EOS)中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)传感器因其具有高时间分辨率、高光谱分辨率、适中的空间分辨率等特点,非常适合大范围、长时期、动态的干旱监测。文中利用MODIS数据提取归一化植被指数(NDVI)和地表温度(LST),构建NDVI-TS特征空间,依据该特征空间得到的温度植被干旱指数进行西藏的旱情分析。研究表明:此种方法适用于西藏旱情监测,同时它也是一种便捷、高效和近实时的适合大面积干旱监测的方法。     

Impact of agricultural development on variation in surface runoff in arid regions: a case of the Aksu River Basin

Located in the south of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region,the Tarim River is the longest inland river in China.Agricultural development,excessive exploitation and low surface water use efficiency in the headstream regions have led to a marked decrease in the water supply to the mainstream.This,in turn,has resulted in the drying-up of the watercourse in the lower reaches of the Tarim River and serious deterioration of the eco-environment.The Aksu River Basin,the most important headstream of the Tarim River,was selected as the research area in this study.Taking elastic coefficient,water demand coefficient and water utilization intensity as the indices,we studied the impact of agricultural development on decreasing surface runoff since the 1950s.The results indicated that(1) the increasing rate of consumption of surface runoff outstripped the rate of increase measured in the natural catchment discharge,resulting in ever diminishing stream discharge into the Tarim River.Agricultural irrigation and seepage loss in irrigation canal systems were the major sources for runoff consumption,taking 63.72% of the overall runoff consumption.What's more,agricultural water consumption took up more than 97% of the water used for long-term production;(2) the expansion of cultivated land,change of planting structure and comparatively low agricultural irrigation efficiency all contributed to the decrease in surface runoff of the Aksu River.The elasticity coefficient of surface runoff reduction corresponding to the increase in planted area was 0.34 in the 1950s,while in the 2000s it had increased to 7.87.This reflected a more sensitive response of runoff decrease to cultivated land expansion.The increase in cotton and fruit production,without widely-used scientific irrigation methods and water-saving technology,led to considerable waste of the water resources.Meanwhile,the irrigation efficiency was still quite low,characterized by the waste of water resources,and the decrease of surface runoff;(3) in different stages,cultivated land area,planting structure and agricultural water use efficiency exerted different effects on runoff decrease.In the early stage,agricultural development showed no obvious effect on runoff decrease.Since the 1960s,the expansion in cultivated land resulted in large consumption of surface runoff;since the 1990s,not only expansion in cultivated land expansion,but also planting structure exerted significant impact on the consumption of surface runoff.Recently,though agricultural water use efficiency has improved in some regions to reduce the consumption of runoff to a certain extent,overall agricultural water use efficiency is still quite low;(4) during the investigation period,water consumption by agricultural development reflected the unbalanced relationship between human activities and water resources.     

Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models:a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China

The extreme temperature has more outstanding impact on ecology and water resources in arid regions than the average temperature. Using the downscaled daily temperature data from 21 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP) models of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP) and the observation data, this paper analyzed the changes in temporal and spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes, i.e., the maximum temperature(Tmax) and minimum temperature(Tmin), in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China over the period 2020–2050 based on the evaluation of preferred Multi-Model Ensemble(MME). Results showed that the Partial Least Square ensemble mean participated by Preferred Models(PM-PLS) was better representing the temporal change and spatial distribution of temperature extremes during 1961–2005 and was chosen to project the future change. In 2020–2050, the increasing rate of Tmax(Tmin) under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 will be 2.0(1.6) times that under RCP4.5, and that of Tmin will be larger than that of Tmax under each corresponding RCP. Tmin will keep contributing more to global warming than Tmax. The spatial distribution characteristics of Tmax and Tmin under the two RCPs will overall the same; but compared to the baseline period(1986–2005), the increments of Tmax and Tmin in plain area will be larger than those in mountainous area. With the emission concentration increased, however, the response of Tmax in mountainous area will be more sensitive than that in plain area, and that of Tmin will be equivalently sensitive in mountainous area and plain area. The impacts induced by Tmin will be universal and farreaching. Results of spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes indicate that large increases in the magnitude of warming in the basin may occur in the future. The projections can provide the scientific basis for water and land plan management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the inland river basin.     

Utilizing a new soil effective temperature scheme and archived satellite microwave brightness temperature data to estimate surface soil moisture in the Nagqu region,Tibetan Plateau of China

Since the early 2000s, many satellite passive microwave brightness temperature(BT) archives, such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System(AMSR-E) BTs, have become the useful resources for assessing the changes in the surface and deep soil moistures over both arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used a new soil effective temperature(T_(eff)) scheme and the archived AMSR-E BTs to estimate surface soil moisture(SM) over the Nagqu region in the central Tibetan Plateau, China. The surface and deep soil temperatures required for the calculation of regional-scale T_(eff) were obtained from outputs of the Community Land Model version 4.5(CLM4.5). In situ SM measurements at the CEOP-CAMP/Tibet(Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period Asia-Australia Monsoon Project on the Tibetan Plateau) experimental sites were used to validate the AMSR-E-based SM estimations at regional and single-site scales. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of monthly mean surface SM over the Nagqu region was obtained from 16 daytime AMSR-E BT observations in July 2004 over the Nagqu region. Results revealed that the AMSR-E-based surface SM estimations agreed well with the in situ-based surface SM measurements, with the root mean square error(RMSE) ranging from 0.042 to 0.066 m~3/m~3 and the coefficient of determination(R~2) ranging from 0.71 to 0.92 during the nighttime and daytime. The regional surface soil water state map showed a clear spatial pattern related to the terrain. It indicated that the lower surface SM values occurred in the mountainous areas of the northern, mid-western and southeastern parts of Nagqu region, while the higher surface SM values appeared in the low elevation areas such as the Tongtian River Basin, Namco Lake and bog meadows in the central part of Nagqu region. Our analysis also showed that the new T_(eff) scheme does not require special fitting parameters or additional assumptions, which simplifies the data requirements for regional-scale applications. This scheme combined with the archived satellite passive microwave BT observations can be used to estimate the historical surface SM for hydrological process studies over the Tibetan Plateau regions.