An integrated hydro-economic modelling framework to evaluate water allocation strategies I: Model development

In this paper an integrated modelling framework for water resources planning and management that can be used to carry out an analysis of alternative policy scenarios for water allocation and use is described. The modelling approach is based on integrating a network allocation model (REALM) and a social Cost Benefit economic model, to evaluate the physical and economic outcomes from alternative water allocation policies in a river basin or sub-basin. From a hydrological perspective, surface and groundwater models were first applied to assess surface and groundwater resource availability. Then an allocation model was applied to reconcile the calculated surface and groundwater resources. From an economic perspective initially the value of water allocated to different uses in each demand centre within the system was estimated. These values were then placed in a social Cost Benefit Analysis to assess the economic consequences of different allocation scenarios over time and space. This approach is useful as it allows policymakers to consider not only the physical dimensions of distributing water, but also the economic consequences associated with it. This model is considered superior to other models as water is increasingly being seen as an economic good that should be allocated according to its value. The framework outlined in this paper was applied to the Musi sub-basin located in the Krishna Basin, India. In applying this framework it was concluded that competition for Musi water is very high, the transfer of water from agriculture to urban users is likely to grow in future and the value of water used in different agricultural zones is very low.     

Water demand and flows in the São Francisco River Basin (Brazil) with increased irrigation

Most activities that support economic growth in the São Francisco River Basin (Brazil) need water. Allocation of the water resources to each competing use needs quantification in order to develop an integrated water management plan. Irrigation agriculture is the largest water consuming activity in the basin. It has produced large economic and social advancements in the region and has potential for further development. The local development agency in the São Francisco River has projected an increase of more than 500,000 ha in irrigation developments distributed within the basin.Water requirements of the projected irrigation expansions and their effects on river flow were quantified. A semi-distributed model was constructed to simulate the water balance in 16 watersheds within the basin. The watersheds were hydrologically characterized by the average precipitation, atmospheric demand and runoff as well as their variability. Water requirements for increased irrigated agriculture were calculated using an agronomic mass balance. A Monte Carlo procedure generated the variability of irrigation requirements and resulting decreased river flows from the multidimensional probability distribution of the hydrologic variables of each watershed.Irrigation requirements were found to be more variable during the wet season because of weather variability. In contrast to what might be expected, in drier years, irrigation requirements were often larger during the wet season than in the dry season because the cropped area is largest in the wet months and variability of precipitation is greater. Increased irrigation shifted downward the distribution of river flows but not enough to affect other strategic water uses such as hydropower. Further irrigation expansion may be limited by wet season flows.     

节水压采区农业种植结构多目标优化研究——以衡水市为例

针对节水压采区水资源紧缺、种植结构不合理、灌溉定额较大等问题,提出了基于作物水分生产函数的多目标种植结构优化模型。以衡水市为例,以种植结构和灌水量为优化变量,以经济效益最大和总灌溉水量最小为优化目标,建立了多目标优化模型,通过改进的NSGA-II算法进行优化计算,得出了不同灌溉水价水平下对应的种植结构和灌水量调整方案。结果表明,小麦种植面积比现状种植面积有所减少,玉米、花生等耗水量小的作物面积有所增加。通过优化,合理提高灌溉水价可促进高耗水作物种植面积的减少,扩大低耗水作物种植面积。     

The impact of water price strategies on the allocation of irrigation water: the case of the Jordan Valley

This paper discusses the optimal water allocation and cropping patterns for the Jordan Valley, taking into consideration variations in expected incomes from agricultural production and rising water prices. The calculations were based on information available on water supplies, areas under irrigation and market conditions, and used linear programming models for determining solutions that maximize gross margins and minimize potential variations in these gross margins. The results indicated that optimizing cropping patterns and the allocation of irrigation water still has a substantial potential to increase the financial return from agriculture. Optimal solutions that consider risk from varying gross margins react quite elastically in terms of demand for irrigation water to rising water prices. This adds the element of a changing market supply to any discussion about managing water consumption between sectors of the society by using pricing mechanisms.     

Farm-level perspectives regarding irrigation water prices in the Tulkarm district, Palestine

Agriculture consumes about 70% of water available in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. Domestic and industrial users utilize 30% of the water supply. Water resource managers are considering the policy of reallocating a portion of the water supply from agriculture to other uses. It is believed that increasing irrigation water prices could influence water consumption and thus make water available for non-agricultural (more economic) uses. This paper examines the impacts of water pricing on agricultural water consumption and farming profitability and provides some guidelines for policy makers regarding water pricing as a tool to manage scarce water resources. We estimate a regression model describing agricultural water consumption as a function of water prices, irrigated land area, farm income, and irrigation frequency, using data collected in a survey of about 150 farmers in the Tulkarm district. We conclude that irrigation water prices are perceived as high and comprise a large portion of total farming expenses. Therefore, attempts to increase irrigation water prices in the Tulkarm district might jeopardize farming feasibility and might have substantial impacts on agricultural water consumption. Nevertheless, many farmers would continue farming even if the water prices were increased beyond their willingness to pay threshold.     

节水灌溉与水资源优化配置对农业种植结构影响研究

安徽省水资源紧缺,发展节水灌溉是缓解水资源供需矛盾,实现水资源优化配置,促进农业种植结构调整,实现农业可持续发展的根本措施.建立了相应的水资源优化配置数学模型,分析了节水灌溉和水资源优化配置对农业种植结构的影响,并给出实例分析,对安徽省8个节水灌溉分区分别提出了不同的农业种植模式.     

An inter-seasonal agricultural water allocation system (SAWAS)

This paper introduces a linear programming optimization model for analyzing inter-seasonal allocation of irrigation water in quantities and qualities and their impact on agricultural production and income. The SAWAS model is a developed version of the Agricultural Sub-Model (AGSM). In this research, we stress water scarcity as a problem that arises when water is not found in proper quantity and quality at the appropriate place and time. The model is designed to serve as a decision-making tool for planners of agricultural production on both the district and the regional level. It generates an optimal mix of water-demanding activities that maximizes the net agricultural income of the districts and gives the water demands under various prices. It also provides the planner with tools to carry out ‘what-if’ experiments and to generate optimal water demand curves. A principal feature of SAWAS is the use of demand and the benefits from water together with costs and optimization within the agricultural sector to specify the optimal usage of different water qualities. Hence the agricultural planner can use the outputs of SAWAS in order to bridge the gap between the limited water resources and the increased agricultural production in an area that suffers from severe water scarcity. The paper applies the SAWAS model to the Jordan Valley in Jordan.     

Integrated hydrologic-economic modelling for analyzing water acquisition strategies in the Murray River Basin

We describe a coupled hydrologic-economic spreadsheet model for the Murray-Darling Basin that allows analyses of water allocation and use by different sectors including agriculture and environment under alternative policy scenarios. The model is a simple, lumped optimisation model which includes partitioning of rainfall into runoff and evapotranspiration, a reach by reach water balance of the river system, irrigation demand and revenue generation. Groundwater is not considered because groundwater use is a small part of the overall water use. The model is used to optimize profit, diversions and flows subject to hydrological and economic constraints determined by the policy scenario.We use the model to examine approaches of acquiring water for reallocation to the environment, and their impacts on irrigation water use and regional income from agriculture. We show that the optimal approach for acquisition depends on: economic factors, including the cost of water and the profits generated by its use; institutional factors, such as restrictions to trade between regions; and, hydrological factors, particularly the connectivity of and losses within the river network.The volume of water to be acquired does not, in general, equal the volume to be allocated. For a downstream site, water must be acquired from upstream, and more water must be acquired than is to be allocated: the volume acquired is that to be allocated plus transmission losses between the locations of acquisition and allocation. For upstream sites, it is optimal to acquire some water from downstream, and less water must be acquired than is to be allocated: the volume acquired is that to be allocated, less the transmission losses no longer incurred between the locations of acquisition and allocation.The volumes of water that must be acquired to satisfy an allocation target and maintain flows in the river system are affected by restrictions on trade between sub-catchments.     

干旱区农业水资源供需水预测分析及对策研究

针对西北干旱区农业水资源短缺的问题,以新疆洛浦县为例,从作物种植结构调整和灌溉面积变化、灌溉水利用系数提高及灌溉方式改变等方面进行节水分析,并对预测水平年农业供需水平衡进行了预测计算,预测结果表明：现有的灌排工程不能满足农业可持续发展要求;提高灌溉水利用系数势在必行;采用滴灌技术极大地减少了农业用水量,是解决农业供需水矛盾的有效措施。最后,根据预测结果,提出了解决农业水资源短缺、可持续发展的对策,为其他区域水资源的合理开发利用提供有益的参考。     

灌溉渠系优化配水模型研究

灌溉渠系的优化配水问题可分为两类:一是以某种指标最优为目标的灌溉水量分配;二是以水量损失最小为目标的灌区各级渠道流量的优化调度。在非充分灌溉试验的基础上,做出了西北干旱灌区棉花膜下滴灌水分生产函数。根据作物水分生产函数,以农业效益和灌溉管理部门总体的经济效益最高为目标,建立了灌溉渠系优化配水模型。在提高灌区经济效益的同时,建立了配水渠道流量优化调度0-1线性整数规划模型,模型适用于支渠以下各级配水渠道在来水流量确定,分水渠道流量彼此相同且按"定流量,变历时"方式轮灌时的优化配水决策,通过实例对模型进行了求解。     

西北现代生态灌区建设理论与技术保障体系构建

灌区是我国粮食安全和现代农业发展的基础保障,同时也是区域经济发展和生态环境保护的重要基石。然而西北地区独特的气候、地貌及社会经济状况导致了灌区生产能力和生态服务功能难以满足现代生态农业发展的需求。通过系统分析西北灌溉农业发展中面临的水资源过度开发、土壤盐碱化严重、生态环境功能低下等方面的问题,阐述了西北现代生态灌区的内涵与特征,并基于农业生产“功能水分”来源,将西北灌区划分成了灌溉依赖型灌区、灌溉主导型灌区、灌溉补充型灌区和灌溉提质型灌区4类。以灌区农业生产系统、物能输配系统、生态环境系统为建设对象,提出了灌区生态服务功能优化配置、灌区农田物能调控和灌区生态系统安全评估三大核心理论,构建了灌区系统控污与景观价值提升技术、灌排系统管控技术、作物生境要素综合调控技术三大关键技术,从而形成了西北现代生态灌区理论与技术保障体系,为我国西北灌溉农业高质量可持续发展提供理论与技术指导。     

灌区节水改造对塔里木河流域治理的作用

在对塔里木河“四源一干”及流域大型灌区存在主要问题分析的基础上，探讨了大型灌区建戌节水改造,对工业及城镇生活需水增长、灌溉及周边生态环境用水、流域综合治理和社会经济可持续发展的作用，深入阐明大型灌区续建配套与节水改造对区域水资源合理配置生态及环境发展的重大意义。     

农业节水对农业水价变动反映的理

农业节水的实现是个技术、经济和社会综合问题。水价对于调节用水户行为,促进农业节水的实现具有重要的地位和作用。文章利用经济学理论探讨和分析了农业水价改革与农业节水实现之间的关系：农业水价的变动能够有效地改变农户用水行为,但是要全面实现农业节水还需要公共投资的干预,以消除农业节水给农户带来的技术门槛和资本门槛。     

浑沙灌区农业水价综合改革规划

浑沙灌区是沈阳地区的大型灌区,一直发挥着当地粮仓的作用.农业用水水价的改革可以改善农业生产条件,提高农业综合生产能力,同时也是保障国家粮食安全的需要.本文对浑沙灌区农业用水水价存在的问题进行分析,说明引起水价问题的原因,并提出进行农业用水水价改革的必要性和具体的改革方案.针对具体的改革方案,预测水价改革后产生的效果为:可以改善农田周边的整体环境,增加灌溉面积,减少机井提取地下水,提高地下水位,有效地保护地下水资源.     

海伦市用水现状与2020年需水预测

【目的】预测城市的生活、工业、农业用水的需水,对城市的规划、经济发展以及供水系统的管理及扩建提供可靠依据。【方法】使用水平衡分析法及线性回归分析和大量的数据运算,通过线性回归分析现状年及2013—2017年用水量分析了海伦市用水现状并预测了2020年需水量。【结果】2020年海伦市城镇居民生活用水为774.66万m~3,农村居民生活用水量为1 622.32万m~3,2020年海伦市工业需水量为0.061亿m~3,2020年海伦市农业需水总量为3.64亿m~3。【结论】预测年2020年供水量大于需水量。     

水稻大田智能灌溉控制系统设计

农业灌溉在农业生产中起着至关重要的作用,随着农业信息化步伐的加快,发展智能田间信息系统已成为智慧农业发展的必然需求,但水资源的短缺、现有大田灌溉系统智能化程度不高,控制精度不足已成为水稻灌溉现代化进程中的一大障碍。基于此,本文开发了一套适合水稻大田的智能灌溉控制系统,经过实地验证,该系统节水效果显著,控制精度高,整套系统可扩展性、适应性强,交互操作性好。     

An integrated water trading-allocation model, applied to a water market in Australia

Temporary water trading is an established and growing phenomenon in the Australian irrigation sector. However, decision support and planning tools that incorporate economic and biophysical factors associated with temporary water trading are lacking. In this paper the integration of an economic trading model with a hydrologic water allocation model is discussed. The integrated model is used to estimate the impacts of temporary water trading and physical water transfers. The model can incorporate economic and biophysical drivers of water trading. The economic model incorporates the key trade drivers of commodity prices, seasonal water allocations and irrigation deliveries. The hydrologic model is based on the Resource Allocation Model (REALM) framework, which facilitates hydrologic network simulation modelling. It incorporates water delivery system properties and operating rules for the main irrigation and urban centres in a study area.The proposed integration method has been applied to a case study area in northern Victoria, Australia. Simulations were conducted for wet and dry spells, a range of commodity prices and different irrigation distribution system configurations. Some example analyses of scenarios incorporating water trading were undertaken. From these analyses potential bottlenecks to trade that constrain the economic benefits from temporary water trading were identified. Furthermore, it was found that in certain areas of the system, trading can make impacts of long drought spells worse for water users, e.g. irrigators. Thus, the integrated model can be used to quantify short-term and long-term third party impacts arising from temporary water trading. These findings also highlight the need to link “paper trades” (estimated by economic models) to physical water transfers (estimated by biophysical models).     

基于SD变化环境下农业水资源供需平衡模拟

为了探讨变化环境对农业水资源供需平衡的影响,运用系统动力学软件Vensim-Dss建立了农业水资源供需平衡的系统动力学模型,综合考虑社会经济发展和气候变化情景,仿真模拟了变化环境下农业供、需水量及缺水量的变化情况.石羊河流域模拟结果表明:未来农业供水量和需水量受气候变化的影响程度不同,但 2033年以后,农业供水量在不同气候变化情景下的变化趋势相同;不同行政区农业水资源系统对气候变化的响应存在明显差异,金昌市A2气候情境缺水率大于B2情景,在2029年、2038年缺水率分别达到32.0%,28.6%, B2情境下,2021年开始出现轻度缺水,中度缺水年仅出现在2023年和2039年,缺水率分别为30.7%,30.5%;武威市A2气候情境下缺水率小于B2情景,仅2038年为中度缺水,缺水率为24.9%,B2气候情景中度缺水年较多,2023年缺水率最大,达到33.2%.研究结果可以对变化环境下区域用水规划和农业发展规划提供指导.     

基于计算机技术的农业节水灌溉系统设计

随着我国人口数量不断增长,对粮食的需求量在不断上升,加之我国城市化与工业化的迅速发展,致使水资源相对缺乏,直接影响我国经济发展。在农业灌溉方面,低功耗节水灌溉系统的设计,能够有效节约水资源,提高水资源利用效率。以计算机技术为基础,对农业节水灌溉系统的软硬件以及控制系统进行了设计。      

Planning and management modeling for treated wastewater usage

Due to urban growth, some agricultural lands have been replaced by residential, municipal, and industrial areas. In some cases the remaining agricultural land will not have enough water because of transfers from agriculture to M&I (municipal and industrial) users. Therefore, in many places, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, the use of treated wastewater as a reliable source of irrigation water has already been, or will be, considered in the future. Due to its unique characteristics, this new resource has many challenges that cannot be ignored, such as health issues, water quality, and long- and short-term effects on soils and crops. The study described herein considered the development of a new GIS-based model for planning and managing the reuse of treated wastewater for the irrigation of agricultural and green lands, considering various factors such as population and urban growth. The model is composed of several different modules, including an urban growth model. These modules are designed to help in the decision-making process for allocations of water resources to agricultural areas, considering factors such as crop types, crop pattern, water salinity, soil characteristics, pumping and conveyance costs, and also by comparing different management scenarios. Appropriate crops that can be grown with a specific water salinity and soil characteristics, proper water resources for each farm (according to pumping and conveyance costs, and analysis of water demand, and water supply) can be determined through the application of this model. The model can also rank agricultural areas and open spaces in and near an urban area according to their suitability for irrigated agriculture.