厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对区域气温的影响与预测——以沈阳地区为例

利用1961—2015年国家气象信息中心沈阳站的日平均气温资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA）提供的多变量ENSO指数（multivariate ENSO index,MEI）资料等,在分析沈阳地区气温月际变化的基础上,结合厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对其影响特征,利用线性倾向估计和非线性自回归（nonlinear auto regressive models with exogenous inputs,NARX）神经网络模型分别对沈阳地区2011—2015年的气温进行预测。结果表明,1961—2015年共计660个月中,沈阳地区11月—3月气温的变异系数在20%以上,远大于其他月份。1961—2015年的厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件往往在秋冬季达到最大强度,或为导致沈阳地区11月—3月气温变异增强的原因之一。厄尔尼诺事件结束之后的春季,沈阳地区气温偏低的概率逾70%。沈阳地区气温随MEI变化的线性倾向值为0.98,决定系数为0.98且通过了0.01的可信度检验。利用MEI对沈阳地区的气温进行同期和时滞预测,NARX的预测结果均优于一元线性回归模型。当气温滞后MEI16个月时,两者的相关系数达到最大且通过了0.01的显著性检验,此时回归模型预测的相关系数为0.59,较同期预测提升了79%;NARX预测的均方误差（mean-square error,MSE）为0.49,较同期预测降低了36%,相关系数为0.86,较同期预测提升了8%。     

Shifts in deep-sea community structure linked to climate and food supply

A major change in the community structure of the dominant epibenthic megafauna was observed at 4100 meters depth in the northeast Pacific and was synchronous to a major El Ni?o/La Ni?a event that occurred between 1997 and 1999. Photographic abundance estimates of epibenthic megafauna from 1989 to 2002 show that two taxa decreased in abundance after 1998 by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, whereas several other species increased in abundance by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. These faunal changes are correlated to climate fluctuations dominated by El Ni?o/La Ni?a. Megafauna even in remote marine areas appear to be affected by contemporary climatic fluctuations. Such faunal changes highlight the importance of an adequate temporal perspective in describing biodiversity, ecology, and anthropogenic impacts in deep-sea communities.     

Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age

Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Ni?o and droughts in La Ni?a years, both having severe impacts on human habitation and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake sediment record from southeastern Kenya for interannual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia and for reductions in both the mean rate and the variability of rainfall in East Africa during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake sediment data that future warming will intensify the interannual variability of East Africa's rainfall.     

Zonal winds in the central equatorial pacific and el nino

Easterly trade winds from near-equatorial islands in the central Pacific weakened before each El Ni?o between 1950 and 1978, except for the 1963 El Ni?o. The weakening of the easterlies and their later collapse did not occur uniformly over several months, but rather through a series of strong westerly wind bursts lasting 1 to 3 weeks. The bursts may force equatorial Kelvin waves in the ocean that can both initiate and sustain the sea surface warming characteristics of El Ni?o events.     

Satellite observations of the 1982-1983 el nino along the u.s. Pacific coast

Satellite infrared temperature images illustrate several effects of the 1982-1983 El Ni?o: warm sea-surface temperatures with the greatest anomalies near the coast, weakened coastal upwelling, and changes in surface circulation patterns. Phytoplankton pigment images from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner indicate reduced productivity during El Ni?o, apparently related to the weakened coastal upwelling The satellite images provide direct evidence of mesoscale changes associated with the oceanwide El Ni?o event.     

Super ENSO and global climate oscillations at millennial time scales

The late Pleistocene history of seawater temperature and salinity variability in the western tropical Pacific warm pool is reconstructed from oxygen isotope (delta18O) and magnesium/calcium composition of planktonic foraminifera. Differentiating the calcite delta18O record into components of temperature and local water delta18O reveals a dominant salinity signal that varied in accord with Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles over Greenland. Salinities were higher at times of high-latitude cooling and were lower during interstadials. The pattern and magnitude of the salinity variations imply shifts in the tropical Pacific ocean/atmosphere system analogous to modern El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Ni?o conditions correlate with stadials at high latitudes, whereas La Ni?a conditions correlate with interstadials. Millennial-scale shifts in atmospheric convection away from the western tropical Pacific may explain many paleo-observations, including lower atmospheric CO2, N2O, and CH4 during stadials and patterns of extratropical ocean variability that have tropical source functions that are negatively correlated with El Ni?o.     

Biospheric primary production during an ENSO transition

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) provides global monthly measurements of both oceanic phytoplankton chlorophyll biomass and light harvesting by land plants. These measurements allowed the comparison of simultaneous ocean and land net primary production (NPP) responses to a major El Ni?o to La Ni?a transition. Between September 1997 and August 2000, biospheric NPP varied by 6 petagrams of carbon per year (from 111 to 117 petagrams of carbon per year). Increases in ocean NPP were pronounced in tropical regions where El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on upwelling and nutrient availability were greatest. Globally, land NPP did not exhibit a clear ENSO response, although regional changes were substantial.     

Oceanographic events during el nino

El Ni?o events, the most spectacular instances of interannual variability in the ocean, have profound consequences for climate and the ocean ecosystem. The 1982-1983 El Ni?o is perhaps the strongest in this century. El Ni?o events usually have followed a predictable pattern, but the recent event differs markedly. The physical oceanography of this El Ni?o is described and compared with that of earlier events.     

Cool La Niña during the warmth of the Pliocene?

The role of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in greenhouse warming and climate change remains controversial. During the warmth of the early-mid Pliocene, we find evidence for enhanced thermocline tilt and cold upwelling in the equatorial Pacific, consistent with the prevalence of a La Ni?a-like state, rather than the proposed persistent warm El Ni?o-like conditions. Our Pliocene paleothermometer supports the idea of a dynamic "ocean thermostat" in which heating of the tropical Pacific leads to a cooling of the east equatorial Pacific and a La Ni?a-like state, analogous to observations of a transient increasing east-west sea surface temperature gradient in the 20th-century tropical Pacific.     

2005—2016年中国东海鲐鱼渔场的时空分布及与海表面温度的关联

根据2005—2016年7—9月中国远洋渔业数据中心提供的我国东海鲐鱼捕捞数据,结合关键因子海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST),计算各年鲐鱼渔场经纬度重心,量化鲐鱼渔场重心的时空变化。进一步分析捕捞努力量在经度、纬度以及SST上的分布规律,并基于聚类法筛选出代表年份,评估异常气候事件对鲐鱼渔场内SST及渔场重心时空分布的影响。研究结果显示,鲐鱼渔场重心具有明显的年际和月间变化,7—9月渔场逐渐向东北方向移动,且主要分布渔场SST为25～28℃。聚类分析将各月份渔场重心分为4类,其中2007和2015年渔场分布具有显著差异。此外,鲐鱼渔场内SST与尼诺指数具有显著的正相关关系,且代表年份2007和2015年分别对应拉尼娜事件和厄尔尼诺事件,当拉尼娜事件发生时,渔场内SST上升,渔场重心逐渐北移;而厄尔尼诺事件发生时,渔场内SST下降,渔场重心主要分布在南部海域。研究表明,中国东海鲐鱼渔场时空分布受到厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜调控的海表面温度变化的显著影响。     

Dynamical response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to solar forcing during the early Holocene

We present a high-resolution magnesium/calcium proxy record of Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) from off the west coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico, a region where interannual SST variability is dominated today by the influence of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Temperatures were lowest during the early to middle Holocene, consistent with documented eastern equatorial Pacific cooling and numerical model simulations of orbital forcing into a La Ni?a-like state at that time. The early Holocene SSTs were also characterized by millennial-scale fluctuations that correlate with cosmogenic nuclide proxies of solar variability, with inferred solar minima corresponding to El Ni?o-like (warm) conditions, in apparent agreement with the theoretical "ocean dynamical thermostat" response of ENSO to exogenous radiative forcing.     

不同时间尺度下秘鲁鳀资源量的波动特征

海洋渔业资源其资源量在时间上存在波动,了解资源量波动的不同时间尺度特征可为探索资源变动的相关因素提供依据。为此,根据1985—2021年间秘鲁鳀(Engraulis ringens)资源量时间序列,利用自适应噪声的完全集合经验模态分解(complete empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, CEEMDAN)的方法,提取资源量波动的不同时间尺度特征,并评价各时间尺度波动对总体资源波动的贡献程度;此外使用交相关分析的方法探究厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件对不同时间尺度下秘鲁鳀资源量波动的影响。研究发现,CEEMDAN可将秘鲁鳀资源量时间序列分解成5个本征模态函数(intrinsic mode function, IMF_i,其中i为分量级数)分量和1个残差项(residual, RES);根据各IMF_i分量的周期特征及其对总体资源波动贡献分析结果可知：秘鲁鳀的资源量波动主要受到季节或年间为表征的IMF₁波动和代表其年代际变动趋势的RES所控制,其中资源量年代际变动的趋势与东南...     

El Nino on the Devil's Staircase: Annual Subharmonic Steps to Chaos

The source of irregularity in El Ni?o, the large interannual climate variation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, has remained elusive. Results from an El Ni?o model exhibit transition to chaos through a series of frequency-locked steps created by nonlinear resonance with the Earth's annual cycle. The overlapping of these resonances leads to the chaotic behavior. This transition scenario explains a number of climate model results and produces spectral characteristics consistent with currently available data.     

A north atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries

Although El Ni?o and La Ni?a are the largest single sources of global interannual climate variability, climate shifts on longer time scales than El Ni?o's 2 to 7 years are also drawing the attention of researchers. On multidecadal time scales of 40 to 80 years, a restless North Atlantic seems to be at work, alternately countering and enhancing humankind's alterations of climate. The evidence for this is turning up in such records as tree rings, ice cores, and corals.     

海洋环境变化对北太平洋柔鱼耳石形态的影响

海洋环境变化会对海洋生物个体及其组织形态产生影响。本研究根据2012年(PDO冷期厄尔尼诺年)、2015年(PDO暖期拉尼娜年)和2016年(PDO暖期厄尔尼诺年)7-10月我国鱿钓船在北太平洋海域采集的柔鱼样本,分析不同年间、不同性别的耳石形态特征差异,并探究耳石形态对海洋环境变化的响应。结果发现,北太平洋柔鱼不同海洋环境年份、不同性别的耳石形态特征存在显著的差异(P<0.05),PDO冷期厄尔尼诺年(2012年)和PDO暖期厄尔尼诺年(2016年)形态值均大于PDO暖期拉尼娜年(2015年)形态值。主成分分析认为,耳石总长(TSL)、翼区长(WL)、吻侧区长(RLL)可以表征耳石长度特征,耳石宽(MW)、翼区宽(WW)、吻区宽(RW)可以表征耳石宽度特征。通过方差分析发现TSL、WL、RLL、MW与胴长之间存在显著的相关性(P<0.05),且不同海洋环境年份和不同性别均存在显著差异(P<0.05),而WW、RW与胴长之间没有显著的相关性(P>0.05)。结合各月索饵场的海表面温度（sea surface temperature,SST）和叶绿素a浓度（chlorophyll a,Chl.a）分析发现,在适宜范围内,较高的SST和Chl.a浓度对应较大的耳石。     

Breeding patterns of galapagos penguins as an indicator of oceanographic conditions

Surface water changes associated with El Ni?o have been known to affect deleteriously top carnivores along coastal South America. Data on the breeding strategies of Galápagos penguins and other seabirds indicate that the biological effects of El Ni?o extend much farther west. The breeding biology of these seabirds is adapted to frequent changes in productivity which are associated with El Ni?o.     

南水北调东线引水工程山东境内农田土壤重金属元素现状评价

测定南水北调东线工程迂境农田土壤中汞、镉、砷、铜、铅、铬、锌、镍等元素的含量及阳离子交换量(CEC)，并通过回归分析测知汞与其它元素无显著相关性，说明汞并非伴生元素，而其它元素的增加与其余元素的减少有显著相关性；聚类分析结果，可根据不同聚类分析数字距离，将9个指标分为三类、四类、五类，根据每一类中某元素含量对该类中其他元素进行预测，为工程运行后．作为农田土壤重金属元素的监控和评价的依据。按照土壤污染分级，该研究区内土壤各元素除砷、铅、镍有极少轻污染外，基本属于清洁区。     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide, the southern oscillation, and the weak 1975 el nino

The observed rate of change of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at the South Pole, Fanning Island, Hawaii, and ocean weather station P correlates with an index of the southern oscillation and with El Ni?o occurrences. There are changes at all four stations that seem to be in response to the weak 1975 El Ni?o. Thus, even poorly developed El Ni?o events may affect the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.     

ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Ni?o and cold La Ni?a events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Ni?o, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.     

Elimination of two reef-building hydrocorals following the 1982-83 el nino warming event

One probable extinction and one range reduction of eastern Pacific reef-building hydrocoral (Millepora) species mark the first documented cases of species eliminations resulting from the worldwide 1980s coral reef bleaching events. Two of 12 Panamanian coral species were eliminated suddenly from their former ranges by prolonged high sea temperatures during the 1982-83 El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation event. Three conditions contributed to their demise: high sensitivity to sea warming, populations confined to a small geographic area, and bathymetric restriction to the euphotic zone (相似文献