Diversity–disturbance relationship in forest landscapes

Context

Despite decades of research, there is an intense debate about the consistency of the hump-shaped pattern describing the relationship between diversity and disturbance as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH). Previous meta-analyses have not explicitly considered interactive effects of disturbance frequency and intensity of disturbance on plant species diversity in terrestrial landscapes.

Objective

We conducted meta-analyses to test the applicability of IDH by simultaneously examining the relationship between species richness, disturbance frequency (quantified as time since last disturbance as originally proposed) and intensity of disturbance in forest landscapes.

Methods

The effects of disturbance frequency, intensity, and their interaction on species richness was evaluated using a mixed-effects model.

Results

We found that species richness peaks at intermediate frequency after both high and intermediate disturbance intensities, but the richness-frequency relationship differed between intensity classes.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the need to measure multiple disturbance components that could help reconcile conflicting empirical results on the effect of disturbance on plant species diversity.

     

Modeling and mapping forest diversity in the boreal forest of interior Alaska

Context

Patterns of forest diversity are less well known in the boreal forest of interior Alaska than in most ecosystems of North America. Proactive forest planning requires spatially accurate information about forest diversity. Modeling is a cost-efficient way of predicting key forest diversity measures as a function of human and environmental factors.

Objectives

Investigate and predict the patterns and processes in tree species and tree size-class diversity within the boreal forest of Alaska for a first mapped quantitative baseline.

Methods

For the boreal forest of Alaska, USA, we employed Random Forest Analysis (machine learning) and the Boruta algorithm in R to predict tree species and tree size-class diversity for the entire region using a combination of forest inventory data and a suite of 30 predictors from public open-access data archives that included climatic, distance, and topographic variables. We developed prediction maps in a GIS for the current levels (Year 2012) of tree size-class and species diversity.

Results

The method employed here yielded good accuracy for the huge Alaskan landscape despite the exclusion of spectral reflectance data. It’s the first quantified GIS prediction baseline. The results indicate that the geographic pattern of tree species diversity differs from the pattern of tree size-class diversity across this forest type.

Conclusions

The results suggest that human factors combined with topographical factors had a large impact on predicting the patterns of diversity in the boreal forest of interior Alaska.

     

From monocultures to mixed-species forests: is tree diversity key for providing ecosystem services at the landscape scale?

Context

Converting monocultures to mixed-species stands is thought to be a promising approach to increase forest productivity and resilience, while additionally providing other ecosystem goods and services (EGS). However, the importance of tree species composition and structure remains unclear, particularly beyond the stand scale due to the difficulty of conducting comprehensive, long-term experiments.

Objectives

To compare the ability of different tree species mixtures to provide various EGS at the landscape scale.

Methods

We used a dynamic forest landscape model to simulate all possible combinations of dominant tree species for two landscapes; a high-elevation alpine region (Dischma valley, Switzerland) and a lowland valley (Mt. Feldberg, Germany). We evaluated multiple EGS, including protection from gravitational hazards, aboveground biomass, and habitat quality, and examined trade-offs and synergies between them.

Results

Mixed-species forests were usually better in providing multiple EGS, although monocultures were often best for single EGS. The simulation results also demonstrated how changing environmental conditions along an elevational gradient had a strong impact on the structure of different species combinations and therefore on the provisioning of EGS.

Conclusion

Tree species diversity alone is not a good predictor of multifunctionality. Mixtures should be selected based on local environmental conditions, complementary functional traits, and the ability to provide the EGS of interest. Although our work focused on current climatic conditions, we discuss how the modelling framework could be employed to consider the impacts of climate change and disturbances to improve our understanding of how mixed-species stands could be used to cope with these challenges.

     

Climate change impacts on forest landscapes along the Canadian southern boreal forest transition zone

Context

Forest landscapes at the southern boreal forest transition zone are likely to undergo great alterations due to projected changes in regional climate.

Objectives

We projected changes in forest landscapes resulting from four climate scenarios (baseline, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), by simulating changes in tree growth and disturbances at the southern edge of Canada’s boreal zone.

Methods

Projections were performed for four regions located on an east–west gradient using a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS).

Results

Climate-induced changes in the competitiveness of dominant tree species due to changes in potential growth, and substantial intensification of the fire regime, appear likely to combine in driving major changes in boreal forest landscapes. Resulting cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems would be manifold but key changes would include (i) a strong decrease in the biomass of the dominant boreal species, especially mid- to late-successional conifers; (ii) increases in abundance of some temperate species able to colonize disturbed areas in a warmer climate; (iii) increases in the proportions of pioneer and fire-adapted species in these landscapes and (iv) an overall decrease in productivity and total biomass. The greatest changes would occur under the RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenario, but some impacts can be expected even with RCP 2.6.

Conclusions

Western boreal forests, i.e., those bordering the prairies, are the most vulnerable because of a lack of species adapted to warmer climates and major increases in areas burned. Conservation and forest management planning within the southern boreal transition zone should consider both disturbance- and climate-induced changes in forest communities.

     

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire,insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Context

Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.

Objectives

We used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.

Methods

We assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.

Results

Interacting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.

Conclusions

Understanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

     

Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

Context

Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.

Objectives

LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.

Methods

We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Results

Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.

Conclusions

Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.

     

Deciduous trees increase bat diversity at stand and landscape scales in mosaic pine plantations

Context

In heterogeneous landscapes, habitat complementation is a key process underlying the distribution of mobile species able to exploit non-substitutable resources over large home ranges. For instance, insectivorous bats need to forage in a diversity of habitat patches offering varied compositions and structures within forest landscape mosaics to fulfill their life cycle requirements.

Objectives

We aimed at analyzing the effects of forest structure and composition measured at the stand and landscape scales on bat species richness, abundance and community composition in pine plantation forests of south-western France.

Methods

We sampled bat communities at different periods of the summer season using automatic ultrasound recorders along a tree composition gradient from pine monocultures to pure oak stands. We analyzed bat species activity (as a proxy for bat abundance) and species richness with linear mixed models. Distance-based constrained ordinations were used to partition the spatio-temporal variation in bat communities.

Results

Deciduous tree cover increased bat activity and modified community composition at both stand and landscape scales. Changes in bat communities were mostly driven by landscape-scale variables while bat activity responded more to stand-scale predictors.

Conclusions

The maintenance of deciduous trees at both stand and landscape scales is likely critical for bat communities living in fast-growing conifer plantations, by increasing the availability and diversity of prey and roosting sites. Our study suggests that bats respond to forest composition at both stand and landscape scales in mosaic plantation landscapes, mainly through a resource complementation process.

     

Disturbance increases negative spatial autocorrelation in species diversity

Context

Ecological processes that shape diversity and spatial pattern of ecological communities are often altered by disturbance. Spatial patterns (spatial autocorrelation) in species diversity are thus expected to change with disturbance.

Objective

When examining spatial patterns, ecologists traditionally lump positive and negative spatial autocorrelation into the overall spatial autocorrelation. By contrast, here we aim to understand disturbance effects on both positive and negative spatial autocorrelation of species richness and evenness, which may be related to environmental filtering and restricted dispersal, and to competition, respectively.

Methods

For 8 years, we monitored the spatial autocorrelation in species richness and evenness of riparian plant communities in both uncut control and experimentally clearcut sites in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. The overall spatial autocorrelation for each of these two indices of diversity was separately decomposed into the components of positive and negative spatial autocorrelations through eigendecomposition of the spatial weighting matrix.

Results

Negative spatial autocorrelation in richness and evenness were more pronounced in the clearcut than uncut sites, although positive spatial autocorrelations in all indices of diversity remained unchanged. Effect of disturbance was not detected on the overall spatial autocorrelation.

Conclusions

Disturbance increases negative spatial autocorrelation in species richness and evenness, with a stronger increase in evenness than richness, which underscores the importance of competition in structuring post-disturbance riparian communities. Our results also highlight the need for assessing positive and negative spatial autocorrelation and different aspects of diversity separately in understanding disturbance effects on the spatial pattern, or identifying processes from patterns.

     

Climate change amplifies the interactions between wind and bark beetle disturbances in forest landscapes

Context

Growing evidence suggests that climate change could substantially alter forest disturbances. Interactions between individual disturbance agents are a major component of disturbance regimes, yet how interactions contribute to their climate sensitivity remains largely unknown.

Objectives

Here, our aim was to assess the climate sensitivity of disturbance interactions, focusing on wind and bark beetle disturbances.

Methods

We developed a process-based model of bark beetle disturbance, integrated into the dynamic forest landscape model iLand (already including a detailed model of wind disturbance). We evaluated the integrated model against observations from three wind events and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak, affecting 530.2 ha (3.8 %) of a mountain forest landscape in Austria between 2007 and 2014. Subsequently, we conducted a factorial experiment determining the effect of changes in climate variables on the area disturbed by wind and bark beetles separately and in combination.

Results

iLand was well able to reproduce observations with regard to area, temporal sequence, and spatial pattern of disturbance. The observed disturbance dynamics was strongly driven by interactions, with 64.3 % of the area disturbed attributed to interaction effects. A +4 °C warming increased the disturbed area by +264.7 % and the area-weighted mean patch size by +1794.3 %. Interactions were found to have a ten times higher sensitivity to temperature changes than main effects, considerably amplifying the climate sensitivity of the disturbance regime.

Conclusions

Disturbance interactions are a key component of the forest disturbance regime. Neglecting interaction effects can lead to a substantial underestimation of the climate change sensitivity of disturbance regimes.

     

Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests (USA)

Context

Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts.

Objectives

We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests.

Methods

We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas.

Results

Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience.

Conclusions

Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems.

     

Multi-temporal trajectories of landscape change explain forest biodiversity in urbanizing ecosystems

Context

Forest loss and fragmentation negatively affect biodiversity. However, disturbances in forest canopy resulting from repeated deforestation and reforestation are also likely important drivers of biodiversity, but are overlooked when forest cover change is assessed using a single time interval.

Objectives

We investigated two questions at the nexus of plant diversity and forest cover change dynamics: (1) Do multitemporal forest cover change trajectories explain patterns of plant diversity better than a simple measure of overall forest change? (2) Are specific types of forest cover change trajectories associated with significantly higher or lower levels of diversity?

Methods

We sampled plant biodiversity in forests spanning the Charlotte, NC, region. We derived forest cover change trajectories occurring within nested spatial extents per sample site using a time series of aerial photos from 1938 to 2009, then classified trajectories by spatio-temporal patterns of change. While accounting for landscape and environmental covariates, we assessed the effects of the trajectory classes as compared to net forest cover change on native plant diversity.

Results

Our results indicated that forest stand diversity is best explained by forest change trajectories, while the herb layer is better explained by net forest cover change. Three distinct forest change trajectory classes were found to influence the forest stand and herb layer.

Conclusions

The influence of forest dynamics on biodiversity can be overlooked in analyses that use only net forest cover change. Our results illustrate the utility of assessing how specific trajectories of past land cover change influence biodiversity patterns in the present.

     

Fire regimes and forest resilience: alternative vegetation states in the West African tropics

Context

Terrestrial ecosystems, including tropical forests, are hypothesized to have tipping points beyond which environmental change triggers rapid and radical shifts to novel alternative states.

Objective

We explored the overarching hypothesis that fire-mediated alternative stable states exist in the semi-deciduous tropical forest zone of Ghana, and that increased fire activity has pushed some forests to a new state in which a novel ecosystem with low tree density is maintained by fire.

Methods

We combined a 30-year time series of remotely-sensed data with field measurements to assess land cover trends, the effects of fire on forest vegetation, and the reciprocal effects of vegetation change on fire regimes, in four forest reserves. We analyzed precipitation trends to determine if shifts in vegetation and fire regime reflected a shift to a drier climate.

Results

Two of the reserves experienced forest loss, were impacted by frequent fires, and transitioned to a vegetation community dominated by shrubs and grasses, which was maintained by fire–vegetation feedbacks. The other two reserves experienced less fire, retained higher levels of forest cover, and resisted fire encroachment from surrounding agricultural areas. Precipitation remained relatively stable, suggesting a hysteresis effect in which different vegetation states and fire regimes coexist within a similar climate.

Conclusion

There is potential for human land use and fire to create novel and persistent non-forest vegetation communities in areas that are climatically suitable for tropical forests. These disturbance-mediated regime shifts should be taken into account when assessing future trajectories of forest landscape change in West Africa.

     

How does forest fragmentation affect tree communities? A critical case study in the biodiversity hotspot of New Caledonia

Context

The biodiversity hotspot for conservation of New Caledonia has facing high levels of forest fragmentation. Remnant forests are critical for biodiversity conservation and can help in understanding how does forest fragmentation affect tree communities.

Objective

Determine the effect of habitat configuration and availability on tree communities.

Methods

We mapped forest in a 60 km² landscape and sampled 93 tree communities in 52 forest fragments following stratified random sampling. At each sampling point, we inventoried all trees with a diameter at breast height ≥10 cm within a radius of 10 m. We then analysed the response of the composition, the structure and the richness of tree communities to the fragment size and isolation, distance from the edge, as well as the topographical position.

Results

Our results showed that the distance from the forest edge was the variable that explained the greatest observed variance in tree assemblages. We observed a decrease in the abundance and richness of animal-dispersed trees as well as a decrease in the abundance of large trees with increasing proximity to forest edges. Near forest edges we found a shift in species composition with a dominance of stress-tolerant pioneer species.

Conclusions

Edge-effects are likely to be the main processes that affect remnant forest tree communities after about a century of forest fragmentation. It results in retrogressive successions at the edges leading to a dominance of stress-tolerant species. The vegetation surrounding fragments should be protected to promote the long process of forest extension and subsequently reduce edge-effects.

     

Patch and matrix level influences on forest birds at the rural–urban interface

Context

Urbanization has altered many landscapes around the world and created novel contexts and interactions, such as the rural–urban interface.

Objectives

We sought to address how a forest patch’s location in the rural–urban interface influences which avian species choose to occur within the patch. We predicted a negative relationship between forest bird richness and urbanization surrounding the patch, but that it would be ameliorated by the area of tree cover in the patch and matrix, and that total tree-cover area would be more influential on forest bird species richness than area of tree cover in the focal patch alone.

Methods

We conducted bird surveys in 44 forest patches over 2 years in Southeast Michigan and evaluated bird presence and richness relative to patch and matrix tree cover and development density.

Results

We observed 43 species, comprised of 21 Neotropical migrants, 19 residents, and three short-distance migrants. Focal-patch tree-cover area and the matrix tree-cover area were the predominant contributors to a site’s overall forest-bird species richness at the rural–urban interface, but the addition of percent of over-story vegetation and percentage of deciduous tree cover influenced the ability of the patches to support forest species, especially Neotropical migrants. Development intensity in the matrix was unrelated to species richness and only had an effect in four species models.

Conclusions

Although small forest patches remain an important conservation strategy in developed environments, the influence of matrix tree cover suggests that landscape design decisions in surrounding matrix can contribute conservation value at the rural–urban interface.

     

Declines in biodiversity and the abundance of pest species across land use gradients in Southeast Asia

Context

Changes in land use have disruptive effects on community structure, causing many species to disappear, though a few thrive and become pests.

Objectives

To gain understanding on how anthropogenic activity changes spatial patterns of native species diversity while favoring pests, we conducted rapid biodiversity assessments of dacine fruit flies across eight regions in Southeast Asia.

Methods

Male lure traps were maintained for 2 days along transects at 233 sites, in forest, agricultural and urban environments.

Results

A total of 8393 individuals were collected, belonging to 57 described and 4 new or unidentified species. The majority (78 %) of individuals belonged to 14 pest species, dominated by Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel). The 57 species represent 38 % of those recorded from the region, indicating effective sampling. Individual flies were collected in highest numbers in urban and agricultural sites, but species diversity was low. Forest samples yielded fewer specimens but highest species diversity, suggesting a shift in community structure after disturbance, benefiting a few pest species at the expense of the broader community, even in the same genus and ecological guild.

Conclusions

Dacine fruit flies may be useful in assessing habitat quality and bait systems permit the execution of rapid biodiversity and multi-species conservation assessments. Our results apply to broader patterns concerning biodiversity loss and the emergence of pest species under increasingly intensive land use gradients, and demonstrate the remarkable loss of biodiversity over very narrow distances as forest is converted into agricultural use, hence the importance in maintaining a mosaic of native habitats.

     

Anthropogenic disturbances strengthened tree community-environment relationships at the temperate-boreal interface

Context

Knowledge of how environmental gradients generate changes in community composition across forest landscapes (β-diversity) represents a critical issue in the era of global change, which exerts especially powerful impacts by shifting disturbance regimes.

Objectives

We analyzed the response of tree communities to increased disturbance rates that were linked to European settlement at the temperate-boreal interface of eastern Canada. We tested whether disturbance has led to spatial homogenization or heterogenization, and to decoupling or strengthening of community-environment relationships.

Methods

We used a reconstruction of pre-industrial tree communities based on historical land survey records (1854–1935), together with modern data, to assess changes in tree β-diversity patterns. Then, β-diversity was partitioned into fractions explained by spatial (dbMEM) and environmental variables (latitude, elevation, slope, drainage and surface deposits) in order to assess changes in spatial structures and community-environment relationships.

Results

In pre-industrial times, environmental variables explained only a small proportion of β-diversity since dominant taxa were present across the range of environmental gradients, whereas habitat specialists were very rare. Between pre-industrial and modern times, our analysis highlights an increase in β-diversity and the proportion of β-diversity that was explained by environmental variables. Increased disturbance rates have favored early-successional habitat specialist taxa and reduced the habitat breadth of pre-industrial generalists, thereby increasing the strength of community-environment relationships.

Conclusions

Our results support that disturbance can alter the strength of community-environment relationships and also suggest that functional traits of species within the regional pool could predict whether or not disturbance alters such relationships.

     

Spatial and temporal variability of fragmentation effects in a long term,eucalypt forest fragmentation experiment

Context

Although forest fragmentation is generally thought to impact tree growth and mortality negatively, recent work suggests some forests are resilient. Experimental forests provide an opportunity to examine the timing and extent of forest tree resilience to disturbance from fragmentation.

Objectives

We used the Wog Wog Habitat Fragmentation Experiment in southeastern Australia to test Eucalyptus growth and survivorship responses to forest fragmentation over a 26 year period.

Methods

We measured 2418 tree diameters and used spline-regression techniques to examine non-monotonic fragmentation effect over two time periods.

Results

Over the first 4 years after fragmentation, individual eucalypt tree growth was greater than in continuous forest for large trees and mortality rates were higher only within 10 m of edges. Over the following 22 years only the effects on tree growth remained and on average all fragments rebounded so that their biomass and mortality rates were equivalent to continuous forest. Importantly non-monotonic patterns were observed in growth and mortality with respect to area and distance from edge in both study periods, demonstrating that fragmentation impacts on trees can be strong in localized areas (greatest in 3 ha fragments and 0–30 m edges) and over short time periods.

Conclusions

Dry-sclerophyll eucalypt forests join the set of forest types that display resilient growth dynamics post fragmentation. Moreover, persistent non-monotonic impacts on tree growth with respect to tree size, fragment area, and fragment distance from edge, highlighting landscape fragmentation as a driver of habitat heterogeneity within remnant forest fragments.

     

Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

Context

Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being.

Objective

We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species distribution changed under multiple climate change scenarios (PCM B1, CGCM A2, and GFDL A1FI) in northeastern forests.

Methods

We used the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model to simulate forest succession and tree harvest under current climate and three climate change scenarios from 2000 to 2300. We analyzed the effects of climate change on AGB and tree species distribution.

Results

AGB increased from 2000 to 2120 irrespective of climate scenario, followed by slight decline, but then increased again to 2300. AGB averaged 10 % greater in the CGCM A2 and GFDL A1FI scenarios than the PCM B1 and current climate scenarios. Climate change effects on tree species distribution were not evident from 2000 to 2100 but by 2300 some northern hardwood and conifer species decreased in occurrence and some central hardwood and southern tree species increased in occurrence.

Conclusions

Climate change had positive effects on forest biomass under the two climate scenarios with greatest warming but the patterns in AGB over time were similar among climate scenarios because succession was the primary driver of AGB dynamics. Our approach, which simulated stand dynamics and dispersal, demonstrated that a northward shift in tree species distributions may take 300 or more years.

     

Divergent rates of change between tree cover types in a tropical pastoral region

Context

Forest cover change analyses have revealed net forest gain in many tropical regions. While most analyses have focused solely on forest cover, trees outside forests are vital components of landscape integrity. Quantifying regional-scale patterns of tree cover change, including non-forest trees, could benefit forest and landscape restoration (FLR) efforts.

Objectives

We analyzed tree cover change in Southwestern Panama to quantify: (1) patterns of change from 1998 to 2014, (2) differences in rates of change between forest and non-forest classes, and (3) the relative importance of social-ecological predictors of tree cover change between classes.

Methods

We digitized tree cover classes, including dispersed trees, live fences, riparian forest, and forest, in very high resolution images from 1998 to 2014. We then applied hurdle models to relate social-ecological predictors to the probability and amount of tree cover gain.

Results

All tree cover classes increased in extent, but gains were highly variable between classes. Non-forest tree cover accounted for 21% of tree cover gains, while riparian trees constituted 31% of forest cover gains. Drivers of tree cover change varied widely between classes, with opposite impacts of some social-ecological predictors on non-forest and forest cover.

Conclusions

We demonstrate that key drivers of forest cover change, including topography, road distance and historical forest cover, do not explain rates of non-forest tree cover change. Consequently, predictions from medium-resolution forest cover change analyses may not apply to finer-scale patterns of tree cover. We highlight the opportunity for FLR projects to target tree cover classes adapted to local social and ecological conditions.