Ecosystem models for fisheries management: finding the sweet spot

The advent of an ecosystem‐based approach dramatically expanded the scope of fisheries management, creating a critical need for new kinds of data and quantitative approaches that could be integrated into the management system. Ecosystem models are needed to codify the relationships among drivers, pressures and resulting states, and to quantify the trade‐offs between conflicting objectives. Incorporating ecosystem considerations requires moving from the single‐species models used in stock assessments, to more complex models that include species interactions, environmental drivers and human consequences. With this increasing model complexity, model fit can improve, but parameter uncertainty increases. At intermediate levels of complexity, there is a ‘sweet spot’ at which the uncertainty in policy indicators is at a minimum. Finding the sweet spot in models requires compromises: for example, to include additional component species, the models of each species have in some cases been simplified from age‐structured to logistic or bioenergetic models. In this paper, we illuminate the characteristics, capabilities and short‐comings of the various modelling approaches being proposed for ecosystem‐based fisheries management. We identify key ecosystem needs in fisheries management and indicate which types of models can meet these needs. Ecosystem models have been playing strategic roles by providing an ecosystem context for single‐species management decisions. However, conventional stock assessments are being increasingly challenged by changing natural mortality rates and environmentally driven changes in productivity that are observed in many fish stocks. Thus, there is a need for more tactical ecosystem models that can respond dynamically to changing ecological and environmental conditions.     

Describing ecosystem contexts with single‐species models: a theoretical synthesis for fisheries

Fished populations exist within complex ecosystems but are typically assessed using single‐species models. It is often lamented that stock assessments rarely account for other ecosystem components explicitly, but in most fisheries there are clear difficulties in implementing data‐intensive ecosystem‐based assessment approaches. Addressing these competing challenges requires prioritizing investments in expanded assessment frameworks. To provide high‐level conceptual guidance to such prioritization, here we use general analytical theory to identify (i) characteristics of fish stocks that tend to facilitate or inhibit the precision and accuracy of reference points from single‐species assessments, (ii) characteristics of ecosystem components that introduce the greatest bias/imprecision into single‐species reference points and (iii) warning signs within single‐species frameworks that important ecosystem components may not be adequately accounted for. We synthesize and expand on theories from various branches of applied mathematics addressing analogous questions. Our theory suggests that (i) slow population dynamics (relative to the dynamics of other ecosystem components) and a wide range of abundance observations promote precision and accuracy of single‐species reference points; (ii) ecosystem components that strongly influence the focal stock's growth, and change on similar timescales as the focal stock's abundance, introduce the greatest bias/imprecision to single‐species reference points; and (iii) signs of potential challenges for single‐species assessment include fast population dynamics, ‘hydra effects’ (i.e. abundance and fishing pressure simultaneously increase), and recently detected extinctions, invasions or regime shifts in closely connected ecosystem components. Our results generalize to other levels of abstraction and provide strategic insights complementing tactical simulation approaches such as management strategy evaluation.     

It is past time to use ecosystem models tactically to support ecosystem-based fisheries management: Case studies using Ecopath with Ecosim in an operational management context

The implementation of ecosystem management requires ecosystem modelling within the context of a natural resource management process. Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is the most widely used modelling platform for investigating the dynamics of marine ecosystems, but has played a limited role in fisheries management and in multi-sector resource decision-making. We review 10 case studies that demonstrate the use of EwE to support operational resource management. EwE models are being used to inform tactical decision-making in fisheries and other ocean use sectors, as well as to identify key trade-offs, develop appropriate policy objectives, and reconcile conflicting legislative mandates in a variety of ecosystems. We suggest the following criteria to enhance the use of EwE and other ecosystem models in operational resource management: (1) a clear management objective that can be addressed through modelling; (2) an important trade-off and a receptive policy context amenable to trade-off evaluation; (3) an accessible and well-documented model that follows best practices; (4) early and iterative engagement among scientists, stakeholders, and managers; (5) integration within a collaborative management process; (6) a multi-model approach; and (7) a rigorous review process. Our review suggests that existing management frameworks are as much or more of a limitation to the operational use of EwE than technical issues related to data availability and model uncertainty. Ecosystem models are increasingly needed to facilitate more effective and transparent decision-making. We assert that the requisite conditions currently exist for enhanced strategic and tactical use of EwE to support fisheries and natural resource management.     

Strong fisheries management and governance positively impact ecosystem status

Fisheries have had major negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and effective fisheries management and governance are needed to achieve sustainable fisheries, biodiversity conservation goals and thus good ecosystem status. To date, the IndiSeas programme (Indicators for the Seas) has focussed on assessing the ecological impacts of fishing at the ecosystem scale using ecological indicators. Here, we explore fisheries ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ and relate this to ecosystem health and status. We developed a dedicated expert survey, focused at the ecosystem level, with a series of questions addressing aspects of management and governance, from an ecosystem‐based perspective, using objective and evidence‐based criteria. The survey was completed by ecosystem experts (managers and scientists) and results analysed using ranking and multivariate methods. Results were further examined for selected ecosystems, using expert knowledge, to explore the overall findings in greater depth. Higher scores for ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ were significantly and positively related to ecosystems with better ecological status. Key factors that point to success in delivering fisheries and conservation objectives were as follows: the use of reference points for management, frequent review of stock assessments, whether Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) catches were being accounted for and addressed, and the inclusion of stakeholders. Additionally, we found that the implementation of a long‐term management plan, including economic and social dimensions of fisheries in exploited ecosystems, was a key factor in successful, sustainable fisheries management. Our results support the thesis that good ecosystem‐based management and governance, sustainable fisheries and healthy ecosystems go together.     

Opportunities for agent‐based modelling in human dimensions of fisheries

Models of human dimensions of fisheries are important to understanding and predicting how fishing industries respond to changes in marine ecosystems and management institutions. Advances in computation have made it possible to construct agent‐based models (ABMs)—which explicitly describe the behaviour of individual people, firms or vessels in order to understand and predict their aggregate behaviours. ABMs are widely used for both academic and applied purposes in many settings including finance, urban planning and the military, but are not yet mainstream in fisheries science and management, despite a growing literature. ABMs are well suited to understanding emergent consequences of fisher interactions, heterogeneity and bounded rationality, especially in complex ecological, social and institutional contexts. For these reasons, we argue that ABMs of human behaviour can contribute significantly to human dimensions of fisheries in three areas: (a) understanding interactions between multiple management institutions; (b) incorporating cognitive and behavioural sciences into fisheries science and practice; and (c) understanding and projecting the social consequences of management institutions. We provide simple examples illustrating the potential for ABMs in each of these areas, using conceptual (“toy”) versions of the POSEIDON model. We argue that salient strategic advances in these areas could pave the way for increased tactical use of ABMs in fishery management settings. We review common ABM development and application challenges, with the aim of providing guidance to beginning ABM developers and users studying human dimensions of fisheries.     

Ecosystems say good management pays off

Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of alternative assessment methods, harvest strategies and management approaches are an important part of operationalizing single‐species and ecosystem‐based fisheries management. Simulations run using two variants of a whole‐of‐ecosystem model for the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery (SESSF) area shows that (a) data‐rich assessments outperform data‐poor assessments for target species and that this performance is reflected in the values of many system‐level ecosystem indicators; (b) ecosystem and multispecies management outperforms single‐species management applied over the same domain; (c) investment in robust science‐based fisheries management pays dividends even when there are multiple jurisdictions, some of which are not implementing effective management; and (d) that multispecies yield‐oriented strategies can deliver higher total catches without a notable decline in overall system performance, although the resulting system structure is different to that obtained with other forms of ecosystem‐based management.     

Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

Risk management for fisheries

Risk management methods provide means to address increasing complexity for successful fisheries management by systematically identifying and coping with risk. The objective of this study is to summarize risk management practices in use in fisheries and to present strategies that are not currently used but may be applicable. Available tools originate from a variety of disciplines and are as diverse as the risks they address, including algorithms to aid in making decisions with multiple stakeholders, reserves to buffer against economic or biological surprises, and insurance instruments to help fishermen cope with economic variability. Techniques are organized in a two‐stage framework. In the first stage, risks are identified and analysed. Strategies presented in this category focus on decision analysis, including multicriteria decision‐making tools, and the related concept of risk assessment. Then in the treatment stage, identified risks can be transferred, avoided, or retained using tools such as the Precautionary Approach, portfolio management, financial contracts to manage price risk and horizontal integration. Published fishery applications are reviewed, and some empirical examples of risks and risk management using US fisheries data are presented.     

Realizing the potential of trait‐based approaches to advance fisheries science

Analysing how fish populations and their ecological communities respond to perturbations such as fishing and environmental variation is crucial to fisheries science. Researchers often predict fish population dynamics using species‐level life‐history parameters that are treated as fixed over time, while ignoring the impact of intraspecific variation on ecosystem dynamics. However, there is increasing recognition of the need to include processes operating at ecosystem levels (changes in drivers of productivity) while also accounting for variation over space, time and among individuals. To address similar challenges, community ecologists studying plants, insects and other taxa increasingly measure phenotypic characteristics of individual animals that affect fitness or ecological function (termed “functional traits”). Here, we review the history of trait‐based methods in fish and other taxa, and argue that fisheries science could see benefits by integrating trait‐based approaches within existing fisheries analyses. We argue that measuring and modelling functional traits can improve estimates of population and community dynamics, and rapidly detect responses to fishing and environmental drivers. We support this claim using three concrete examples: how trait‐based approaches could account for time‐varying parameters in population models; improve fisheries management and harvest control rules; and inform size‐based models of marine communities. We then present a step‐by‐step primer for how trait‐based methods could be adapted to complement existing models and analyses in fisheries science. Finally, we call for the creation and expansion of publicly available trait databases to facilitate adapting trait‐based methods in fisheries science, to complement existing public databases of life‐history parameters for marine organisms.     

Assessing opportunity and relocation costs of marine protected areas using a behavioural model of longline fleet dynamics

Increasing use of spatial management tools in fisheries requires an understanding of fleet response, and in particular to where displaced fishing effort is likely to move. We develop a state‐dependent decision‐making model to address the spatial allocation of effort in an Australian tuna longline fishery. We assume that fishers have an economic objective in deciding where to fish, but that decisions in any period are also influenced by the remaining quota held at the time of the decision. Key features of the model include endogenous price dynamics, a moving stock and a competitive pool of different vessel types operating from different port locations. We utilize this model to illustrate fleet responses to marine reserves and limits on fishing effort. The results illustrate that the model framework provides advantages over statistically based models in that decisions made in response to the imposition of a reserve are not consistent with a proportional reallocation of effort. Rather, the stochastic dynamic model yielded an overall profit level of ～4% higher relative to scenarios with no reserve. Incorporating the opportunity cost of a quota into the model resulted in an optimal utilization of effort, in which effort was concentrated in time periods and locations yielding maximized profit. Under a low level of effort relative to the season length, the model indicated an overall profit level 43% greater than the highest obtained when the same level of effort was applied solely within any given quarter of the season.     

Ecosystem processes are rarely included in tactical fisheries management

Fish stock productivity, and thereby sensitivity to harvesting, depends on physical (e.g. ocean climate) and biological (e.g. prey availability, competition and predation) processes in the ecosystem. The combined impacts of such ecosystem processes and fisheries have lead to stock collapses across the world. While traditional fisheries management focuses on harvest rates and stock biomass, incorporating the impacts of such ecosystem processes are one of the main pillars of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). Although EAFM has been formally adopted widely since the 1990s, little is currently known to what extent ecosystem drivers of fish stock productivity are actually implemented in fisheries management. Based on worldwide review of more than 1200 marine fish stocks, we found that such ecosystem drivers were implemented in the tactical management of only 24 stocks. Most of these cases were in the North Atlantic and north‐east Pacific, where the scientific support is strong. However, the diversity of ecosystem drivers implemented, and in the approaches taken, suggests that implementation is largely a bottom‐up process driven by a few dedicated experts. Our results demonstrate that tactical fisheries management is still predominantly single‐species oriented taking little account of ecosystem processes, implicitly ignoring that fish stock production is dependent on the physical and biological conditions of the ecosystem. Thus, while the ecosystem approach is highlighted in policy, key aspects of it tend yet not to be implemented in actual fisheries management.     

Spatially explicit fisheries simulation models for policy evaluation

This paper deals with the design of modelling tools suitable for investigating the consequences of alternative policies on the dynamics of resources and fisheries, such as the evaluation of marine protected areas (MPA). We first review the numerous models that have been developed for this purpose, and compare them from several standpoints: population modelling, exploitation modelling and management measure modelling. We then present a generic fisheries simulation model, Integration of Spatial Information for FISHeries simulation (ISIS‐Fish). This spatially explicit model allows quantitative policy screening for fisheries with mixed‐species harvests. It may be used to investigate the effects of combined management scenarios including a variety of policies: total allowable catch (TAC), licenses, gear restrictions, MPA, etc. Fisher's response to management may be accounted for by means of decision rules conditioned on population and exploitation parameters. An application to a simple example illustrates the relevance of this kind of tool for policy screening, particularly in the case of mixed fisheries. Finally, the reviewed models and ISIS‐Fish are discussed and confronted in the light of the underlying assumptions and model objectives. In the light of this discussion, we identify desirable features for fisheries simulation models aimed at policy evaluation, and particularly MPA evaluation.     

Behavioural diversity in fishing—Towards a next generation of fishery models

Despite improved knowledge and stricter regulations, numerous fish stocks remain overharvested. Previous research has shown that fisheries management may fail when the models and assessments used to inform management are based on unrealistic assumptions regarding fishers' decision‐making and responses to policies. Improving the understanding of fisher behaviour requires addressing its diversity and complexity through the integration of social science knowledge into modelling. In our paper, we review and synthesize state‐of‐the‐art research on both social science's understanding of fisher behaviour and the representation of fisher decision‐making in scientific models. We then develop and experiment with an agent‐based social–ecological fisheries model that formalizes three different fishing styles. Thereby we reflect on the implications of our incorporation of behavioural diversity and contrast it with the predominant assumption in fishery models: fishing practices being driven by rational profit maximizing. We envision a next generation of fisheries models and management that account for social scientific knowledge on individual and collective human behaviours. Through our agent‐based model, we demonstrate how such an integration is possible and propose a scientific approach for reducing uncertainty based on human behavioural diversity in fisheries. This study serves to lay the foundations for a next generation of social–ecological fishery models that account for human behavioural diversity and social and ecological complexity that are relevant for a realistic assessment and management of fishery sustainability problems.     

Reference points for predators will progress ecosystem‐based management of fisheries

Ecosystem‐based management of fisheries aims to allow sustainable use of fished stocks while keeping impacts upon ecosystems within safe ecological limits. Both the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets promote these aims. We evaluate implementation of ecosystem‐based management in six case‐study fisheries in which potential indirect impacts upon bird or mammal predators of fished stocks are well publicized and well studied. In particular, we consider the components needed to enable management strategies to respond to information from predator monitoring. Although such information is available in all case‐studies, only one has a reference point defining safe ecological limits for predators and none has a method to adjust fishing activities in response to estimates of the state of the predator population. Reference points for predators have been developed outside the fisheries management context, but adoption by fisheries managers is hindered a lack of clarity about management objectives and uncertainty about how fishing affects predator dynamics. This also hinders the development of adjustment methods because these generally require information on the state of ecosystem variables relative to reference points. Nonetheless, most of the case‐studies include precautionary measures to limit impacts on predators. These measures are not used tactically and therefore risk excessive restrictions on sustainable use. Adoption of predator reference points to inform tactical adjustment of precautionary measures would be an appropriate next step towards ecosystem‐based management.     

The pelagic habitat analysis module for ecosystem‐based fisheries science and management

We have developed a set of tools that operate within an aquatic geographic information system to improve the accessibility, and usability of remote‐sensed satellite and computer‐modeled oceanographic data for marine science and ecosystem‐based management. The tools form the Pelagic Habitat Analysis Module (PHAM), which can be applied as a modeling platform, an investigative aid in scientific research, or utilized as a decision support system for marine ecological management. Applications include fisheries, marine biology, physical and biological oceanography, and marine spatial management. The GIS provides a home for diverse data types and automated tools for downloading remote sensed and global circulation model data. Within the GIS environment, PHAM provides a framework for seamless interactive four‐dimensional visualization, for matching between disparate data types, for flexible statistic or mechanistic model development, and for dynamic application of user developed models for habitat, density, and probability predictions. Here we describe PHAM in the context of ecosystem‐based fisheries management, and present results from case study projects which guided development. In the first, an analysis of the purse seine fishery for tropical tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean revealed oceanographic drivers of the catch distribution and the influence of climate‐driven circulation patterns on the location of fishing grounds. To support management of the Common Thresher Shark (Alopias vulpinus) in the California Current Ecosystem, a simple empirical habitat utilization model was developed and used to dynamically predict the seasonal range expansion of common thresher shark based on oceanographic conditions.     

Performance of regional fisheries management organizations: ecosystem‐based governance of bycatch and discards

A performance assessment was conducted of regional fisheries management organizations’ (RFMOs’) bycatch governance, one element of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. Obtaining a mean score of 25%, with a 64% CV, collectively the RFMOs have large governance deficits. Individually, there has been mixed progress, with some RFMOs having made substantial progress for some governance elements. There has been nominal progress in gradually transitioning to ecosystem‐based fisheries management: controls largely do not account for broad or multispecies effects of fishing, and cross‐sectoral marine spatial planning is limited. Regional observers collect half of minimum information needed to assess the efficacy of bycatch measures. Over two‐thirds of RFMO‐managed fisheries lack regional observer coverage. International exchange of observers occurs in one‐third of programmes. There is no open access to research‐grade regional observer data. Ecological risk assessments focus on effects of bycatch removals on vulnerable species groups and effects of fishing on vulnerable benthic marine ecosystems. RFMOs largely do not assess or manage cryptic, generally undetectable sources of fishing mortality. Binding measures address about one‐third of bycatch problems. Eighty per cent of measures lack explicit performance standards against which to assess efficacy. Measures are piecemeal, developed without considering potential conflicts across vulnerable groups. RFMOs employ 60% of surveillance methods required to assess compliance. A lack of transparency and limited reporting of inspection effort, identified infractions, enforcement actions and outcomes further limits the ability to assess compliance. Augmented harmonization could help to fill identified deficits.     

基于个体生态模型在渔业生态中应用研究进展

近年来, 基于个体的生态模型(individual-based model, IBM)被广泛应用到海洋生态环境中, 被认为可能是研究鱼类生态过程的唯一合理手段。基于个体生态模型以众多的生物个体为模拟对象, 考虑个体之间的差异、环境条件的时空变化对个体发育的影响,这一研究为基于生态系统的渔业管理, 以及资源补充量预测分析提供了科学的研究方法和手段。本文主要介绍了IBM的基本概念, 以及在渔业上的研究方法和技术, 总结了IBM在鱼类输运、生长死亡和捕食相关的应用研究现状以及IBM在渔业上未来发展趋势, 并对IBM在渔业上应用的问题和不足进行了分析和讨论。本论文的总结与分析将为国内开展我国近海鱼类早期生活史的研究, 以及基于生态系统的渔业资源评估管理提供参考。     

Using fishers' anecdotes, naturalists' observations and grey literature to reassess marine species at risk: the case of the Gulf grouper in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Designing fishing policies without knowledge of past levels of target species abundance is a dangerous omission for fisheries management. However, as fisheries monitoring started long after exploitation of many species began, this is a difficult issue to address. Here we show how the ‘shifting baseline’ syndrome can affect the stock assessment of a vulnerable species by masking real population trends and thereby put marine animals at serious risk. Current fishery data suggest that landings of the large Gulf grouper (Mycteroperca jordani, Serranidae) are increasing in the Gulf of California. However, reviews of historical evidence, naturalists’ observations and a systematic documentation of fishers’ perceptions of trends in the abundance of this species indicate that it has dramatically declined. The heyday for the Gulf grouper fishery occurred prior to the 1970s, after which abundance dropped rapidly, probably falling to a few percent of former numbers. This decline happened long before fishery statistics were formally developed. We use the case of the Gulf grouper to illustrate how other vulnerable tropical and semi‐tropical fish and shellfish species around the world may be facing the same fate as the Gulf grouper. In accordance with other recent studies, we recommend using historical tools as part of a broad data‐gathering approach to assess the conservation status of marine species that are vulnerable to over‐exploitation.     

Implementing ecosystem‐based management: evolution or revolution?

As a dominant paradigm, ecosystem‐based fisheries have to come to terms with uncertainty and complexity, an interdisciplinary visioning of management objectives, and putting humans back into the ecosystem. The goal of this article is to suggest that implementing ecosystem‐based management (EBM) has to be ‘revolutionary’ in the sense of going beyond conventional practices. It would require the use of multiple disciplines and multiple objectives, dealing with technically unresolvable management problems of complex adaptive systems and expanding scope from management to governance. Developing the governance toolbox would require expanding into new kinds of interaction unforeseen by the mid‐twentieth‐century fathers of fishery science – governance that may involve cooperative, multilevel management, partnerships, social learning and knowledge co‐production. In addition to incorporating relatively well‐known resilience, adaptive management and co‐management approaches, taking EBM to the next stage may include some of the following: conceptualizing EBM as a ‘wicked problem’; conceptualizing fisheries as social‐ecological systems; picking and choosing from an assortment of new governance approaches; and finding creative ways to handle complexity.