Application of Modern Credit Risk Measurement and Management

A model of credit quantitative measurement and management widely used in foreign countries is introduced, and its limitation which appears while the model is used in China is analyzed. According to the chaos time serials constituted by various period credit grades' transition probability of an enterprise and the average value of its ratio of callback due to breach of faith, applying the theory of the chaos time serials and the local prediction method, a credit grades' transition matrix and a matrix of the average ratio of callback due to breach of faith is established. Which is applied to Chinese enterprises. Thus, a credit risk quantitative measurement and management model which is adapted to commercial bank is established, which is important in theory and practice.     

Implication of Logistic Model in Listed Companies'' Credit Risk Evaluation

This paper analyzes the causes that contribute to listed companies' credit risk,and then formulates a logistic model of listed companies' credit in which the interest rate safeguard multiplier and turnover rate of inventory are taken as key indices through handling the data of the companies' annual reports.The listed companies' credit after one year of operation can be evaluated by using this model.     

农户贷款信用风险评估——基于CFPS2018数据的分析

研究旨在提高农户贷款信用风险度量的准确性,降低银行涉农贷款的不良率,促进银行对农户的信贷覆盖。从农户户主特征、资产负债、家庭收支和还款意愿4个方面选取违约判别指标,运用因子分析法克服多重共线性,基于Logistic原理构建适用于农村中小银行的农户贷款违约风险评估模型,并以中国家庭动态跟踪调查CFPS2018数据为样本进行实证研究。研究发现,农户的资产状况是影响贷款违约最主要的因素,资产负债率与其贷款信用风险正相关;家庭消费性支出越多,贷款违约的可能性越大;信任认同是重要因素,农户与人合作的信任度越高,违约风险越小。构建模型的预测准确率超过90%,具有普遍适用性。鼓励有条件的农村中小银行实施信用风险内部评级,提高农户的信贷覆盖,同时要加强相关配套建设,如优化风险组织架构、完善风险管理制度、优化风控人才队伍。     

信合保险在信用社小额信贷及农村金融中的作用

中国实施农村信用社发放农户小额信用贷款已经有5年。在实施的过程中，同以往其他贷款一样，出现了呆帐、坏帐、道德风险和产业风险测算不准、信用调查不实和评级不准等问题，不仅造成了信用社的贷款风险过大,而且也使农户贷款愈加困难。及时对农户小额信用贷款中存在的这些问题进行理论和实践上的创新性研究是十分必要的。研究的对象主要是信合保险这种新的金融实体，通过开展信合保险，不仅可以有效降低农村信用社的贷款风险，在一定程度上解决农户贷款难的问题，而且对改善农户生活水平也能起到一定的作用。开展信合保险也能健全农村的信贷保险机制，改善农村金融环境，推动农村经济的进一步发展。     

Significance of Construction Guarantee Institution to Risk Management in China

Construction guarantee institution is a risk management means to disperse or remove each party's risk. The guarantor makes a promise in written form to the party in right under guarantee's demand to fulfill what the guarantee is requested in construction contract, if the guarantee cannot do it. In developed countries and regions, the construction guarantee is an important part of social guarantee system in construction engineering and has been developed amply. Beginning with the methods of risk management, this paper introduces and analyzes the important statue of guarantee in construction industry in risk management over the world and provides some advice on how to carry out the guarantee in our construction industry.     

北京农村信贷的宏观制度

为了明确阐述北京农村信贷宏观制度的模式和发展阶段,作者运用宏观方法对服务于北京农村的主要信贷机构的发展历程、主要信贷业务方向及其规模进行了比较分析,得出了北京农村信贷的宏观制度已经实现了由合作信贷与商业信贷并存转化为商业信贷制度的结论。根据理性小农命题和道义小农命题、信贷制度与经济主体行为的相互影响等理论以及现实经济现象,作者做出了农村信贷制度三阶段动态发展的示意图。最后,提出了进一步发展北京农村信贷宏观制度的步骤和措施：了解北京农村信贷需求主体的构成;确定北京农村潜在信贷需求的类型和规模;适度增加一些小型合作信贷机构;增加不同机构的信贷业务竞争力;加快农村信用制度建设,推动农村信贷制度发展;等等。     

Behaviour Risk of Applicant Measurement

When deeisioner makes a decision rationally and legally, the other of the game will face behaviour risk. It is different from moral risk. When an applicant buy the insurance, he will reduce investment of prevention and become more risky. So insurer faces behaviour risk. By the analyse of behaviour risk, insurer can manage risk better and adjust the premium rate.     

Financial Risk Measurement: CVaR

The precise measurement to risks is principal for the effective risk management,both major in theory and practice.Value-at-Risk,a widely accepted risk measure,has some deadly deficiencies.The authors introduce a new risk measure,Conditional-Value-at-Risk,which comes into being based on the VaR measure. They introduce CVaR's definition and the risk-measuring model on it and also its applications in portfolio management,comparatively with VaR measure.     

Correlation and Arithmetic of Operational Risk Measurement Basing on Loss Distribution Approach

Based on the principles of operational risk measurement provided by Basel II,the paper discusses the problem of operational risk correlations among different business lines / risk types.The correlation coefficients between the aggregate losses among different business lines / risk types are calculated.Copula arithmetic is put forward to compute correlation coefficients matrix of aggregate losses.Besides,the result is used to calculate the capital requirement of operational risk.     

爆裂玉米3个膨爆特性的非条件和条件QTL分析

膨化倍数(PF)、膨化体积(PV)和爆花率(PR)是爆裂玉米的主要品质指标。本研究以普通玉米自交系丹232和爆裂玉米自交系N04杂交构建的259个F2:3家系为定位群体,采用完全随机区组设计在郑州夏播条件下测定了3个膨爆特性指标。利用覆盖玉米10条染色体的183对多态性分子标记构建连锁图,采用复合区间作图(CIM)方法对各性状进行非条件QTL定位分析,采用条件遗传统计软件对PF进行条件QTL分析。3个膨爆特性指标非条件QTL定位共检测出31个QTL,单个QTL的贡献率为3.09%￣12.46%,累计贡献率为51.90%、77.37%和61.45%。在8个标记区间(占42.11%)同时检测到控制2￣3个性状的QTL。加性和部分显性在膨爆特性的遗传中起主要作用,同时存在显性和超显性基因效应。条件QTL定位结果表明,PV和PR以不同方式显著影响PF的QTL表达,PV比PR更重要。     

玉米籽粒产量与产量构成因子的关系及条件QTL分析

以我国玉米育种的骨干亲本齐319和黄早四构建的230个F2:3家系群体为材料,通过条件分析结合QTL定位方法探讨了单株产量(GYPP)与单株粒数(KNPP)和百粒重(KWEI)的遗传关系。结果表明,百粒重比单株粒数和单株产量遗传力高,受环境影响小。相关分析表明,单株粒数和百粒重与单株产量均呈现显著正相关,单株粒数与单株产量的相关系数更高。单株产量非条件QTL分析共定位到5个遗传主效应QTL和5对上位性位点,其中4个是控制3个性状(单株产量、单株粒数和百粒重)的一因多效性位点,1个是控制2个性状(单株产量和单株粒数)的一因多效性位点,全部5对上位性位点都与单株粒数和百粒重有关。条件QTL分析还检测到14个QTL位点及10对上位性位点,这些位点在非条件QTL分析中未被检测到,其效应较小。因此,单株粒数和百粒重与单株产量密切相关,通过改良单株粒数和百粒重可有效提高产量;条件QTL分析方法在单个QTL水平上证实了单株产量与单株粒数、百粒重较强的遗传相关性,并且能够检测到更多效应较小的QTL;发掘的两个效应较大的一因多效位点可为玉米高产分子育种和进一步精细定位提供理论参考。     

Economic Sense of Mortgage and Guarantee in Credit Contract

There exists the information asymmetry between banks and enterprises that need loan, which can cause the problem of adverse selection. With the symmetry information, banks and enterprises can manage to reach best contracts. However, with the information asymmetry, when banks select the price of loan according to the average risk level of borrowers, the problem of adverse selection appears. Mortgage and guarantee are all very helpful to deal with adverse selection in some sides. For example, guarantee can send a signal to banks that enterprises could be low risky, and mortgage can make highly risky enterprises give up borrowing since it will bear more responsibility for its fail. A form of contract that connects the price of loan with the value of mortgage can help to recognize the style of different borrowers.     

Housing Credit and Insurance for Elders

As the new century approaches, the problem of aging society is confronting us. The housing market for elders is becoming a constituent of the housing market in China. It is an indisputable way that credit and insurance play roles in the process of promoting the elder's housing consumption. This paper introduces a different kind of credit-inverse mortgage, suitable for elders, and explores its characteristics and three main forms. For weak abilities of elders to resist risks, this paper also explores some insurance forms that can help elder housing consumers.     

Handicap to Banking''s Reform by Scarcity of Credit Culture

This paper demonstrates that if the credit culture of the public product does not have a ownership of exclusiveness,the credit of the whole society will be explo ited excessively. That leads the whole societyforfeits sincerity. The authors use an example for guiding, expands foreign capitals bank to the recessive crisis in the whole society of China, and points out the importance of sincere construction.     

福建农村中小企业正规信贷融资约束问题研究

本文通过调查问卷形式调查了福建农村中小企业借贷与融资需求状况,得出了福建农村中小企业存在正规信贷融资约束的结论,剖析了其产生约束的原因,并从企业、银行、金融生态环境三个方面提出相应的对策。     

污泥在土地利用中的潜在生态风险评价

为评估污泥在土地利用中的潜在生态环境风险,笔者对比分析了污泥施用区和对照区土壤样品中As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb、Zn共7种重金属的含量,并采用地积累指数法和潜在生态危害指数法对污泥施用区重金属污染进行了分析和评价。研究结果表明：除Ni和Pb外,其他重金属平均含量较背景值均有所增加;污泥施用区重金属含量与对照区存在显著差异,但其平均值含量均在土壤环境质量II级范围内;从平均地积累指数来看,土壤环境总体上处于无污染状态;重金属元素的潜在生态危害指数除Cd外均处于低度污染,元素Cd有部分处于中度以上污染。可得出结论：潜在生态危害指数由于考虑外源重金属富集和不同重金属生物毒性系数的影响,其评价结果更加精确。     

Risk Identification and Risk Assessment in Architectural Programming

Through analyzing risks factor in architectural programming, the paper presents risk assessment index system, and constitutes architectural programming risk comprehensive assessment model by using the theory of fuzzy mathematics. So it can improve specialization of architectural programming and make architectural works satisfy the society, environment and economy.