Population viability of the narrow endemic Helianthemum juliae (CISTACEAE) in relation to climate variability

Narrow endemic plants are highly vulnerable to extinction as a result of human disturbance and climate change. We investigated the factors affecting the population viability of Helianthemum juliae, a perennial plant endemic to the Teide National Park on Tenerife, Canary Islands. One population was demographically monitored from 1992 to 2001 and analysed using matrix projection models to determine finite rates of increase and critical stages in the life cycle. Lambda values varied between 0.697 and 1.740, and were highly positively correlated with annual precipitation, but not with temperature. Survival of adults had the highest elasticity, and summed elasticities of the growth and fecundity transitions correlated positively with lambda and precipitation. Most of the mortality in the population seemed drought-related, and no other threats were identified. Deterministic simulations showed population increase, but introducing environmental stochasticity by modelling variation in precipitation from existing data of the past 85 years revealed high extinction probabilities (0.74-0.83 in the next 100 years). This plant is likely to be at risk under scenarios of global warming. Our simulations suggest that augmenting the population would only delay extinction. A more viable option for long-term conservation seems to be the introduction of populations at more humid locations within the Teide caldera.     

Estimates of minimum viable population sizes for vertebrates and factors influencing those estimates

Population size is a major determinant of extinction risk. However, controversy remains as to how large populations need to be to ensure persistence. It is generally believed that minimum viable population sizes (MVPs) would be highly specific, depending on the environmental and life history characteristics of the species. We used population viability analysis to estimate MVPs for 102 species. We define a minimum viable population size as one with a 99% probability of persistence for 40 generations. The models are comprehensive and include age-structure, catastrophes, demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding depression. The mean and median estimates of MVP were 7316 and 5816 adults, respectively. This is slightly larger than, but in general agreement with, previous estimates of MVP. MVPs did not differ significantly among major taxa, or with latitude or trophic level, but were negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with the length of the study used to parameterize the model. A doubling of study duration increased the estimated MVP by approximately 67%. The increase in extinction risk is associated with greater temporal variation in population size for models built from longer data sets. Short-term studies consistently underestimate the true variances for demographic parameters in populations. Thus, the lack of long-term studies for endangered species leads to widespread underestimation of extinction risk. The results of our simulations suggest that conservation programs, for wild populations, need to be designed to conserve habitat capable of supporting approximately 7000 adult vertebrates in order to ensure long-term persistence.     

Hydrologic regime and the conservation of salmon life history diversity

Life history diversity of imperiled Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. substantially contributes to their persistence, and conservation of such diversity is a critical element of recovery efforts. Preserving and restoring diversity of life history traits depends in part on environmental factors affecting their expression. We analyzed relationships between annual hydrograph patterns and life history traits (spawn timing, age at spawning, age at outmigration, and body size) of Puget Sound Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to identify environmental indicators of current and historic diversity. Based on mean monthly flow patterns, we identified three hydrologic regimes: snowmelt-dominated, rainfall-dominated, and transitional. Chinook populations in snowmelt-dominated areas contained higher proportions of the stream-type life history (juvenile residence >1 year in freshwater), had older spawners, and tended to spawn earlier in the year than populations in rainfall-dominated areas. There are few extant Puget Sound populations dominated by the stream-type life history, as several populations with high proportions of stream-type fish have been extirpated by construction of dams that prevent migration into snowmelt-dominated reaches. The few extant populations are thus a high priority for conservation. The low level of genetic distinction between stream-type and ocean-type (juvenile residence <1 year in freshwater) life histories suggests that allowing some portion of extant populations to recolonize habitats above dams might allow re-expression of suppressed life history characteristics, creating a broader spatial distribution of the stream-type life history. Climate change ultimately may limit the effectiveness of some conservation efforts, as stream-type Chinook may be dependent on a diminishing snowmelt-dominated habitat.     

Assessing the risks of extinction for local populations of roan antelope Hippotragus equinus

We estimated the minimum size of the roan antelope Hippotragus equinus population in the Parc National de l'Akagera in Rwanda to be at least 144 animals, based on a two and a half year study of individually recognized stable social groups. Data from the same study were used to estimate the annual birth rate, and the survival rate of male calves, female calves, adult females and juvenile females; and to identify factors which would result in year-to-year variations in survival. The results of this analysis were incorporated into an age-structured model of the population's dynamics which took account of demographic and environmental stochasticity. This model was then used to determine the viability of the roan population in the park and to identify demographic characteristics whose occurrence could be used to predict when the population was most at risk of extinction.The risk of extinction could be predicted if the number of stable groups within the park was monitored in September of each year. This risk could be greatly reduced if a reciprocal arrangement was established with other protected areas such that the population in the park could be reinforced with new stable groups when the number of stable groups fell below three. However, the risks—particularly of disease transfer—associated with such reinforcement programmes should be clearly recognized.     

Illegal killing slows population recovery of a re-introduced raptor of high conservation concern - The red kite Milvus milvus

The re-introduction of extirpated species is a valuable conservation tool. Red kites Milvus milvus are declining over much of their European range and have been re-introduced to England and Scotland, following their extinction due to widespread human persecution during the 19th century. Considerable regional variation in population growth exists. This study aims to identify the proximate demographic and ultimate environmental constraints on red kites in north Scotland, a region with low population growth. Productivity in north Scotland was high compared to other Scottish and Welsh populations and equal to English populations with high population growth rates. In north Scotland, annual survival of wild-fledged birds was low for first-year birds compared to other Scottish populations and second-year survival declined over time. In north Scotland, 40% of 103 red kites found dead were killed illegally, mainly by direct poisoning. In the absence of illegal killing, we estimate that annual survival rates in wild red kites might increase from 0.37 to 0.54, 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.87 to 0.92 for first, second-year and adult birds respectively. Demographic rates from this study produce population trends that recapitulate observed trends for the north Scotland population (leading to a population of c40 pairs by 2006). Models in which the additive illegal killing mortality is excluded, predict a population trajectory and size (c300 pairs by 2006) very similar to that found in the Chilterns, a rapidly growing population (320 pairs in 2006) in south-east England re-introduced at the same time, but where rates of illegal killing are much lower. We conclude that illegal killing of red kites is the cause of poor population growth in north Scotland and the key challenge facing government is to find a way to eliminate this killing.     

Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.     

坡位对土壤水分及植被空间分布的影响

[目的]探讨微地形对土壤含水量和生物量的影响,为浑善达克沙地环境建设和合理开发利用提供理论参考。[方法]以内蒙古锡林郭勒盟白音锡勒牧场境内的中国科学院内蒙古草原生态系统定位站沙地样地为研究对象,对坡底、坡顶、阴坡和阳坡等坡位的植被和土壤水分等指标的测定,对其进行方差分析和相关性分析。[结果]坡底以多年生杂类草占优,阴坡以灌木、半灌木及多年生禾草为主,阳坡以灌木、半灌木、多年生禾草及1,2年生植物为主,坡顶以多年生禾草和1,2年生草本植物为主;0—50cm土壤平均含水量的大小顺序为:坡底阴坡阳坡坡顶,生物量顺序与土壤平均含水量一致;坡顶、坡底、阳坡和阴坡各层土壤水分变异系数由大到小的顺序因土层和坡位的不同而表现出一定的差异性,0—50cm各层平均变异系数坡顶最大,坡底次之,阳坡最低;生物量和各层土壤含水量均呈现正相关关系,其中0—5,5—10和20—30cm土壤含水量与生物量之间表现为极显著线性正相关(p0.01)。[结论]微地形对植被种类和土壤含水量具有一定影响,且土壤含水量和植物生物量呈现正相关关系。     

Evaluating population persistence of Delmarva fox squirrels and potential impacts of climate change

In addition to the combined effects of forest fragmentation, habitat loss, and population isolation on the long-term persistence of many species including the endangered Delmarva fox squirrel (Sciurus niger cinereus), future changes in climate may make existing habitats less productive and more variable. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Delmarva Peninsula of the mid-Atlantic USA, reveals a trend for longer durations of potentially unfavorable conditions for fox squirrel population growth. We used a stochastic population matrix model and available life history information to assess population extinction risk for the Delmarva fox squirrel under a number of scenarios of landscape change and environmental variation, including uncertainties in the future range of climate patterns. Patch size (carrying capacity) was the most important factor influencing persistence of isolated populations. Extinction risk increased markedly across all patch sizes when year to year patterns in environmental variability were autocorrelated to match regional patterns in the PDSI. Increased autocorrelation matching the regional PSDI increased extinction risk, ranging from a factor of 5 to a factor of over 100 in some scenarios when compared to uncorrelated patterns in environmental variability. Increasing the range of variation in survival probabilities was less important to persistence, but its effect also increased when year-to-year changes were autocorrelated in time. Comparing model results with the size and landscape configuration of currently occupied patches on the Delmarva Peninsula showed that many existing populations are above the size threshold identified by these simulations for long-term persistence under current conditions, but these may become vulnerable should climate variability increase and adverse conditions persist for several years at a time.     

Plant life history traits of rare versus frequent plant taxa of sandplains: Implications for research and management trials

I apply a comparative, functional group approach to coastal sandplain grassland taxa in order to examine whether rare plant species share certain aspects of rarity and life history characters that are distinct from their more common, co-occurring congeners in these habitats. I compiled a comparative data set containing 16 variables describing biogeographic distributions, level of imperilment, habitat specialization, vegetative versus sexual reproduction, seed dispersal, and dormancy of 27 closely-related pairs of plant species that contrast in their abundance (infrequent versus common) in coastal sandplain grasslands. Frequent and infrequent species were paired within genera (or closely related genera) and thus distributed equivalently across families to control for phylogenetic bias. Paired comparisons revealed that infrequent species were intrinsically rarer range-wide, and exhibited a narrower range and more habitat specialization than their common relatives. A classification tree distinguished infrequent species from common species on the basis of higher habitat specialization, larger seed size, smaller plant height, less reliance less on vegetative (colonial) reproduction, and tendency toward annual or biennial life history. Research and management steps to reduce competition from larger-satured, colonial, perennial species are recommended for these infrequent species. Basic research involving more species and more data on ecophysiological characters, demography, and competitive interactions are needed to identify critical life history traits that will influence responses to particular management regimes.     

甘肃省牧草种子中杂草种子种类及多样性分析

为了提高甘肃省牧草种子品质,避免牧草种子中混杂杂草种子过多导致草场质量下降,对2019 —2022年甘肃省草原生态修复项目牧草种子中混杂的杂草种子进行物种鉴定及多样性分析。结果表明,供检牧草种子中混杂各类杂草24科102种。检出频次较高的杂草有26种,其中禾本科6种,藜科、蓼科杂草各4种。外来入侵物种野燕麦、反枝苋、刺苋及有毒杂草马先蒿、草地乌头需要重点监测和防控,以避免造成草地植物种群结构失衡、生态恶化、威胁家畜生存。检出杂草的生活型以草本植物为主,共98种,占牧草中全部杂草种类的96.1%;灌木仅4种,仅占牧草中全部杂草种类的3.9%。草本植物中,一年生杂草46种,多年生杂草38种,二年生杂草8种,一年生或多年生6种。     

Different leguminous pre-crops increased yield of succeeding cereals in two consecutive years

Leguminous pre-crops are an important source of green manure in organic crop rotations for improving soil fertility and achieving high yields of cereals. We aimed to study the potential of various leguminous species, other than the traditionally cultivated red clover (Trifolium pratense L.), as green manure pre-crops for subsequent cereals. The use of different legume species enables to exploit advantages of specific legumes in organic cereal production. In order to test the legumes as pre-crops for cereals, we carried out trials located in the temperate climate zone of northeast Europe (58°44′59.41″ N, 26°24′54.02″ E). We sowed the following perennial legumes as pre-crops: red clover, alsike clover (Trifolium hybridum L.) and Washington lupine (Lupinus polyphyllus Lindl.), biennial white sweet clover (Melilotus albus Medik.) and annual Alexandria clover (Trifolium alexandrinum L.), and crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.). Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) was used as a control. The leguminous pre-crops were followed by three spring cereals (barley, oat and spring wheat) and two winter cereals (rye and winter wheat). We tested the first-year after-effect (all cereals) and second-year after-effect (only barley and oat) of pre-crops on the grain yield of cereals. Perennial and biennial legume species produced the highest dry matter yield and contained the highest amount of nutrients, especially nitrogen, compared to annual species. All subsequent cereals produced significant extra yields after each leguminous pre-crop in the following two years, although the effect was smaller in the second year. The most suitable pre-crops for spring cereals were red and alsike clover followed by lupine, whereas the best pre-crops for winter cereals were sweet clover and annual clovers. Our results show the potential of various leguminous pre-crop species as valuable sources of green manure in organic crop rotation.     

How to make a common species rare: A case against conservation complacency

A traditional focus in conservation biology has been on rare species as they are often those most at risk of decline or extinction. However, we argue in this paper that some kinds of currently common species also can be susceptible to decline. Those at particular risk are species that are specialized on widespread environmental conditions. Such specialization may make such species vulnerable to a range of drivers of environmental change, placing them at risk of significant decline or even local extinction. We illustrate this with a case study of the arboreal marsupial the Greater Glider (Petauroides volans) in south-eastern Australia. The Greater Glider was formerly common in two large-scale studies but in one it suffered rapid extinction (within a 3 year period) and in another it is declining at an annual rate of 8.8%. We therefore argue for more research to better predict those kinds of currently common species which might be at risk of future rapid decline or extinction. In addition, we suggest there will often be a need to take pro-active conservation and management action to reduce the number of potential environmental stressors on populations of common species to ensure they do not become uncommon or rare. We also argue that conserving common species will ensure the retention of their key ecological and functional roles in ecosystems. Finally, we believe there is a need to develop better monitoring programs that can detect changes in the population trajectories of common species, help identify the reasons for temporal changes in such populations, and underpin timely management interventions. Despite these good intentions, we acknowledge that in one of our own long-term investigations we: (1) failed to anticipate the extremely rapid decline (and likely local extinction) of the Greater Glider, (2) were unable to diagnose the reason/s underpinning the population collapse, and (3) nor were we able to instigate a timely intervention program of management to prevent this from occurring. The key lesson from this sobering result is that common species can sometimes be at risk of rapid decline and it is wise to avoid complacency in conservation.     

Effect of tillage intensity on weed infestation in organic farming

Conservation tillage is not yet widely accepted by organic farmers because inversion tillage is considered to be necessary for weed control. Three long-term experiments were established with combinations of reduced and conventional plough tillage and stubble tillage to determine weed infestation levels in organic farming, i.e. herbicide application being excluded. Experiment 1 (with very low stocking density of perennial weeds) showed that in presence of primary tillage by mouldboard ploughing the number of annual weeds was nearly unaffected by the mode of stubble tillage. In experiment 2, however, with Canada thistle (Cirsium arvense) being artificially established, thistle density was significantly affected by stubble tillage and by a perennial grass–clover forage crop. Experiment 3 combined two levels of stubble tillage (skimmer plough, no stubble tillage = control) with four implements of primary tillage in the order of decreasing operation depth (deep mouldboard plough, double-layer plough, shallow mouldboard plough or chisel plough). Primary tillage by chisel plough resulted in significantly highest annual weed density compared to all other treatments. The natural C. arvense infestation in experiment 3 showed highest shoot density in the “skimmer plough/chisel plough” treatment compared to the lowest infestation in the “skimmer plough/double-layer plough” treatment. The poor capacity of the chisel plough for weed control was also reflected by the soil seed bank (5500 m⁻² C. arvense seeds for chisel plough, <300 seeds for all other primary tillage). A reduced operation depth of the mouldboard plough (“shallow mouldboard plough”) seemed to have an insufficient effect in controlling C. arvense infestation as well. Stubble tillage by the skimmer plough in addition to nearly any primary tillage operation largely reduced both annual weeds and thistle shoots. Most effective in controlling C. arvense was also a biennial grass–clover mixture as part of the crop rotation.Double-layer ploughing is a compromise between soil inversion and soil loosening/cutting and can be regarded as a step towards conservation tillage. In terms of controlling annual weeds and C. arvense, the double-layer plough was not inferior to a deep mouldboard plough and seems to be suitable for weed control in organic farming. Tilling the stubble shallowly after harvest can support weed control in organic farming remarkably, particularly in reducing C. arvense. If no noxious, perennial weeds occur and primary tillage is done by soil inversion, an omission of stubble tillage can be taken into consideration.     

Effects of management regimes and extreme climatic events on plant population viability in Eryngium alpinum

Extreme climatic events like the 2003 summer heatwave and inappropriate land management can threaten the existence of rare plants. We studied the response of Eryngium alpinum, a vulnerable species, to this extreme climatic event and different agricultural practices. A demographic study was conducted in seven field sites between 2001 and 2010. Stage-specific vital rates were used to parameterize matrix population models and perform stochastic projections to calculate population growth rates and estimate extinction probabilities. Among management regimes, spring grazing and land abandonment decreased vital rates and population growth, while autumn grazing and late mowing had positive effects on population viability. The 2003 heatwave reduced fecundity rates and survival rates. Only spring grazed sites presented considerable extinction risk. Stochastic projections showed that an increased frequency of 2003-like events may exacerbate extinction risk, but extinction probability depends mainly on land management regimes. To better conserve E. alpinum populations, we recommend conversion of presently spring grazed and abandoned sites to late mowing or autumn grazing.     

Evaluation of the extinction risk and of conservation alternatives for a very small insular population: the bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus in Corsica

The bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus is a large, long-lived osteophagus vulture whose abundance and breeding range have drastically declined during the last century, making it one of the most endangered European bird species. We evaluated the extinction risk of the bearded vulture population in Corsica (a small, isolated breeding population of 8-10 pairs), one of the last extant populations in Western Europe, and estimated its probability of extinction to be 0.165 over the next 50 years. A sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of uncertain demographic rates showed that it is critical to estimate precisely the values of pre-adult survival. Neither the type nor the parameters of density dependence acting on fecundity and survival rates influenced much the extinction risk of the Corsican population. We evaluated the effect of four realistic conservation actions that could be implemented on the Corsican bearded vulture population and rank them in terms of their respective decrease of the current extinction risk faced by this population. We found that the release of two juveniles every other year for 12 years and the increase of fecundity due to selective food provisioning would reduce by more than one-half the current extinction risk of Corsican bearded vulture population. In contrast, even substantial increases in the carrying capacity through large supplemental feeding produced very modest decreases in the extinction risk, thus calling into question the efficacy of one of the main pan-European conservation strategies for this species. Re-establishing a population network within the Mediterranean could be a potentially better strategy, though its efficacy depends on natal dispersal among populations that is currently unknown.     

Long-term dynamics and population viability in one of the last populations of the endangered Spiranthes spiralis (Orchidaceae) in the Netherlands

During the last decades, most orchid species in much of Western Europe have suffered significant declines and the long-term survival of the remaining populations remains to a large extent uncertain. In particular, populations at range margins may be more prone to extinction than more central populations, as the former tend to be small and isolated, occur in ecologically marginal habitats and have a lower per-capita reproductive rate. In this study, we investigated the long-term dynamics and population viability of a population at the margin of its range of Spiranthes spiralis in the Netherlands. At present, only 2 out of 40 previously known populations persist. Individual plants were monitored for 24 years and their life span, flowering frequency and vegetative growth were determined. Individual plants showed large temporal variation in sexual and vegetative growth among years. The proportion of flowering plants varied from 0 (no plants were flowering) to 100 (all plants were flowering). Vegetative growth, on the other hand, increased when the number of individuals decreased. Dormancy was present, but occurred only in a few individuals. Using a non-structured population viability model, future prospects of this species were assessed. Calculation of extinction probabilities and estimated times to extinction using the diffusion approximation model showed that the species had a relatively high probability (79%) of surviving the next 20 years, whereas the median time to extinction was forty years. However, because 95% confidence intervals of the population growth included 1, we suggest that continued monitoring and additional genetic research are needed to assess the long-term viability of this species.     

Integrating effects of hunting policy, catastrophic events, and inbreeding depression, in PVA simulation: the Scandinavian wolf population as an example

Focusing on the wolf Canis lupus in Scandinavia as an example, criteria are proposed and an analysis performed to assess the effect on extinction risk of various control policies, while accounting simultaneously for effects of inbreeding depression and potential catastrophic events. Each control policy is characterized by a hunting pressure (the increase caused by hunting of annual mortality rates) combined with a hunting threshold (the population size below which hunting is not permitted). Catastrophes are taken into account by including the persistence of a severe catastrophe in the criterion for population viability. Based on these criteria, the results suggest that only a very limited amount of hunting should be permitted at low population sizes. The results also illustrate the importance of including a long-term perspective in modelling threatened populations.     

Increase of a Caribbean leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea nesting population linked to long-term nest protection

The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea is considered to be at serious risk of global extinction, despite ongoing conservation efforts. Intensive long-term monitoring of a leatherback nesting population on Sandy Point (St. Croix, US Virgin Islands) offers a unique opportunity to quantify basic population parameters and evaluate effectiveness of nesting beach conservation practices. We report a significant increase in the number of females nesting annually from ca. 18-30 in the 1980s to 186 in 2001, with a corresponding increase in annual hatchling production from ca. 2000 to over 49,000. We then analyzed resighting data from 1991 to 2001 with an open robust-design capture-mark-recapture model to estimate annual nester survival and adult abundance for this population. The expected annual survival probability was estimated at ca. 0.893 (95% CI: 0.87-0.92) and the population was estimated to be increasing ca. 13% pa since the early 1990s. Taken together with DNA fingerprinting that identify mother-daughter relations, our findings suggest that the increase in the size of the nesting population since 1991 was probably due to an aggressive program of beach protection and egg relocation initiated more than 20 years ago. Beach protection and egg relocation provide a simple and effective conservation strategy for this Northern Caribbean nesting population as long as adult survival at sea remains relatively high.     

Population viability and species interactions: Life outside the single-species vacuum

Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a widely used set of tools for evaluating relative extinction risk and prioritizing management options among imperiled populations. While PVA is a widely sanctioned tool in conservation biology, the field of population viability is in its infancy with respect to species interactions. In this paper, I review available methods for evaluating extinction risk when species interactions contribute significantly to population viability. This review includes an evaluation of six broad categories of species interactions (predation, disease, competition, mutualism, parasitism and host-parasitoid interactions) in population viability analysis, with a particular focus on predation as a case study. I first evaluated how often species interactions are considered when PVA is applied to population data from imperiled species. I identified 378 articles in commonly cited conservation journals, of which 24 attempted a viability analysis for populations threatened by interactions with other species. Most of these PVA’s treat a putative species interaction as a constant source of mortality rather than a coupled, dynamic population process. Second, I reviewed the literature to identify the availability of time-series of abundance data for two interacting species in which at least one species was threatened or endangered. Adequate time-series data were available for both species comprising an interacting pair in only 9 out of 407 papers reviewed. Third, I used a stochastic, fully stage-structured predator prey model to create time-series data (vital rates and projection matrices) in order to quantify the efficacy of two matrix-based, single-species PVA approaches. Simple single-species PVAs confound stochastic variation with population cycles induced by species interactions (in this case predation). As a result these models provide conservatively biased forecasts of viability. Unfortunately, the data needed to construct more complex PVA’s with feedback and multi-species stochasticity are rarely collected. I close with a discussion of key advances needed to “escape the population vacuum” in a move toward more realistic estimates of extinction risk.     

Modelling the effect of El Niño on the persistence of small populations: The Galápagos penguin as a case study

Small populations are vulnerable to long-term declines, even where short-term censuses indicate increasing trends in numbers. Census data for the Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) collected between 1970 and 2004 provide evidence that despite year-to-year population increases detected in most of the annual censuses, the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were followed by population declines of more than 60% from which the species has yet to recover. Such large declines raise concerns about the future viability of the species because the frequency and severity of El Niño events are predicted to increase. We used the simulation software VORTEX to evaluate the potential effects of El Niño on the risk of extinction of the Galápagos penguin population and its four constituent subpopulations. Weak and strong El Niño events were treated as catastrophes, with varying frequencies, which simulated past, current and future effects on the penguin population. The “Current El Niño” scenario, based on the frequency of El Niño events recorded in the Galápagos between 1965 and 2004, indicated an approximately 30% probability of extinction within the next 100 years for the penguin population. More ominously, the species may be at a greater risk if the frequency of strong El Niño episodes increases only marginally. A probability of extinction greater than 80% was predicted when the current frequency (5%) of strong El Niño events was doubled (to 10%). The probabilities of extinctions were higher for each subpopulation treated individually, ranging from 34% for Isabela and Fernandina, 64% for Bartolomé-Santiago to 78% for the smallest subpopulation on Floreana. Sensitivity analyses identified survival of penguins during El Niño events and sex ratio as influential parameters. The estimates of extinction risk may be conservative as other threats associated with increased human activities on the islands may further compromise species persistence.