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1.
Context
In response to predominantly local and private approaches to landscape change, landscape ecologists should critically assess the multiscalar influences on landscape design.Objectives
This study develops a governance framework for Nassauer and Opdam’s “Design-in-Science” model. Its objective is to create an approach for examining hierarchical constraints on landscape design in order to investigate linkages among urban greening initiatives, patterns of landscape change, and the broader societal values driving those changes. It aims to provide an integrative and actionable approach for landscape sustainability science.Methods
This framework is examined through an ethnographic study of public policy processes surrounding the urban tree initiatives in Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Baltimore, MD.Results
These initiatives demonstrate the impact of political and economic decentralization on urban landscape patterns. Their collaborative governance approach incorporates diverse resources to implement programming at a fine-scale. The predominant tree giveaway program fragments the urban and regional forest.Conclusion
Spatial and temporal fragmentation undermines the long-term security of urban greening programs, and it suggests reconsideration of the role of state regimes in driving broad scale spatial planning.2.
Stephen R. Shifley Hong S. He Heike Lischke Wen J. Wang Wenchi Jin Eric J. Gustafson Jonathan R. Thompson Frank R. ThompsonIII William D. Dijak Jian Yang 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1307-1325
Context
Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent.Objectives
We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities.Methods
We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs.Results
Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained by available data for model calibration and validation; computing capacity; model applicability to real-world problems; and ability to integrate biological, social, and economic drivers of change. As computing and data resources improved, a new class of spatially explicit forest landscape models emerged.Conclusions
We are at a point of great opportunity in development and application of forest dynamics models. Past limitations in computing capacity and in data suitable for model calibration or evaluation are becoming less restrictive. Forest landscape models, in particular, are ready to transition to a central role supporting forest management, planning, and policy decisions.Recommendations
Transitioning forest landscape models to a central role in applied decision making will require greater attention to evaluating performance; building application support staffs; expanding the included drivers of change, and incorporating metrics for social and economic inputs and outputs.3.
Matthias Bürgi Claudia Bieling Kim von Hackwitz Thanasis Kizos Juraj Lieskovský María García Martín Sarah McCarthy Matthias Müller Hannes Palang Tobias Plieninger Anu Printsmann 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(11):2097-2112
Context
Cultural landscapes evolve over time. However, the rate and direction of change might not be in line with societal needs and more information on the forces driving these changes are therefore needed.Objectives
Filling the gap between single case studies and meta-analyses, we present a comparative study of landscape changes and their driving forces based in six regions across Europe conducted using a consistent method.Methods
A LULC analysis based on historical and contemporary maps from the nineteenth and twentieth century was combined with oral history interviews to learn more about perceived landscape changes, and remembered driving forces. Land cover and landscape changes were analysed regarding change, conversions and processes. For all case study areas, narratives on mapped land cover change, perceived landscape changes and driving forces were compiled.Results
Despite a very high diversity in extent, direction and rates of change, a few dominant processes and widespread factors driving the changes could be identified in the six case study areas, i.e. access and infrastructure, political shifts, labor market, technological innovations, and for the more recent period climate change.Conclusions
Grasping peoples’ perception supplements the analyses of mapped land use and land cover changes and allows to address perceived landscape changes. The list of driving forces determined to be most relevant shows clear limits in predictability: Whereas changes triggered by infrastructural developments might be comparatively easy to model, political developments cannot be foreseen but might, nevertheless, leave major marks in the landscape.4.
Audrey Lustig Daniel B. Stouffer Crile Doscher Susan P. Worner 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(12):2311-2325
Context
With accelerated land-use change throughout the world, increased understanding of the relative effects of landscape composition and configuration on biological system and bioinvasion in particular, is needed to design effective management strategies. However, this topic is poorly understood in part because empirical studies often fail to account for large gradients of habitat complexity and offer insufficient or even no replication across habitats.Objectives
The aim of this study was to disentangle the independent and interactive effects of landscape composition and landscape configuration on the establishment and spread of invasive insect species.Methods
We explore a spatially-explicit, mechanistic modeling framework that allows for systematic investigation of the impact of changes in landscape composition and landscape configuration on establishment and spread of invasive insect species. Landscape metrics are used as an indicators of invasive insect establishment and spread.Results
We showed that the presence of an Allee effect leads to a balance between the effectiveness of spread and invasion success. Spread is maximized at an intermediate dispersal level and inhibited at both low and high levels of dispersal. The landscape, by either increasing or mitigating the dispersal abilities of a species, can lead to a rate of spread under a dispersal threshold for which density and spread is at the highest.Conclusion
Our study proposes that change in landscape structure is an additional explanation of the highly variable spread dynamics observed in natural and anthropogenic landscapes. Consequently, a landscape-scale perspective could significantly improve spread risk assessment and the design of control or containment strategies.5.
Surface metrics for landscape ecology: a comparison of landscape models across ecoregions and scales
Peter J. Kedron Amy E. Frazier Gustavo A. Ovando-Montejo Jing Wang 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(9):1489-1504
Context
The patch-mosaic model is lauded for its conceptual simplicity and ease with which conventional landscape metrics can be computed from categorical maps, yet many argue it is inconsistent with ecological theory. Gradient surface models (GSMs) are an alternative for representing landscapes, but adoption of surface metrics for analyzing spatial patterns in GSMs is hindered by several factors including a lack of meaningful interpretations.Objectives
We investigate the performance and applicability of surface metrics across a range of ecoregions and scales to strengthen theoretical foundations for their adoption in landscape ecology.Methods
We examine metric clustering across scales and ecoregions, test correlations with patch-based metrics, and provide ecological interpretations for a variety of surface metrics with respect to forest cover to support the basis for selecting surface metrics for ecological analyses.Results
We identify several factors complicating the interpretation of surface metrics from a landscape perspective. First, not all surface metrics are appropriate for landscape analyses. Second, true analogs between surface metrics and patch-based, landscape metrics are rare. Researchers should focus instead on how surface measures can uniquely measure spatial patterns. Lastly, scale dependencies exist for surface metrics, but relationships between metrics do not appear to change considerably with scale.Conclusions
Incorporating gradient surfaces into landscape ecological analyses is challenging, and many surface metrics may not have patch analogs or be ecologically relevant. For this reason, surface metrics should be considered in terms of the set of pattern elements they represent that can then be linked to landscape characteristics.6.
Context
Amphibians are declining worldwide and land use change to agriculture is recognized as a leading cause. Argentina is undergoing an agriculturalization process with rapid changes in landscape structure.Objectives
We evaluated anuran response to landscape composition and configuration in two landscapes of east-central Argentina with different degrees of agriculturalization. We identified sensitive species and evaluated landscape influence on communities and individual species at two spatial scales.Methods
We compared anuran richness, frequency of occurrence, and activity between landscapes using call surveys data from 120 sampling points from 2007 to 2009. We evaluated anuran responses to landscape structure variables estimated within 250 and 500-m radius buffers using canonical correspondence analysis and multimodel inference from a set of candidate models.Results
Anuran richness was lower in the landscape with greater level of agriculturalization with reduced amount of forest cover and stream length. This pattern was driven by the lower occurrence and calling activity of seven out of the sixteen recorded species. Four species responded positively to the amount of forest cover and stream habitat. Three species responded positively to forest cohesion and negatively to rural housing. Two responded negatively to crop area and diversity of cover classes.Conclusions
Anurans within agricultural landscapes of east-central Argentina are responding to landscape structure. Responses varied depending on species and study scale. Life-history traits contribute to responses differences. Our study offers a better understanding of landscape effects on anurans and can be used for land management in other areas experiencing a similar agriculturalization process.7.
William D. Dijak Brice B. Hanberry Jacob S. Fraser Hong S. He Wen J. Wang Frank R. ThompsonIII 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1365-1384
Context
Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.Objectives
LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.Methods
We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.Results
Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.Conclusions
Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.8.
Fangyan Cheng Shiliang Liu Xiaoyun Hou Yueqiu Zhang Shikui Dong 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(5):783-798
Context
Dramatic land-use change has taken place in the tropical region of southwestern China. However, quantitative evaluation of changes in landscape sustainability and the provision of biodiversity ecosystem services (BESVs) of the region has seldom been attempted.Objectives
This study was designed to: (1) assess bioenergy landscape dynamics based on graph theory; (2) predict bioenergy landscape sustainability in response to land-use changes, and (3) explore the effects of land-use changes on BESVs’ variation based on bioenergy modeling.Methods
The PANDORA model, a bioenergy-based integrated evaluation of BESV related to landscape connectivity, was employed to analyze variations in landscape’s bioenergy and BESV in Jinghong County, southwestern China. In addition, we applied this model and several indices (change extent, change rate, and growth type) to evaluate responses of bioenergy and BESV to land-use changes.Results
The bioenergy and bioenergy fluxes of the regional landscape have decreased since the 1970s, while the landscape has remained sustainable with a high level of bioenergy. The BESVs overall fluctuated from $8.41 m?2 year?1 in the 1970s to $8.54, 7.45, and 5.71 m?2 year?1 in 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively. Further, both changes in the land-use area and patterns, including change extent, change rate, and change pattern, affected the variation in BESVs.Conclusions
The PANDORA model can evaluate bioenergy dynamics, sustainability, and BESV variations on the landscape scale effectively. Further, the BESV is sensitive to changes in landscape composition and pattern, and thus, increasing natural vegetation and landscape connectivity could improve provisions to conserve the landscape’s biodiversity.9.
Context
Revealing the interaction between landscape pattern and urban land surface temperature (LST) can provide insight into mitigating thermal environmental risks. However, there is no consensus about the key landscape indicators influencing LST.Objectives
This study sought to identify the key landscape indicators influencing LST considering a large number of landscape pattern variables and multiple scales.Methods
This study applied ordinary least squares regression and partial least squares regression to explore a combination of landscape metrics and identify the key indicators influencing LST. A total of 49 Landsat images of the main city of Shenzhen, China were examined at 13 spatial scales.Results
The landscape composition indicators derived from biophysical proportion, a new metric developed in this study, more effectively determined LST variation than those derived from land cover proportion. Area-related landscape configuration indicators independently characterized LST variation, but did not give much more new information beyond that given by land cover proportion. Shape-related landscape configuration indicators were effective in combination with land cover proportion, but their importance was uncertain when temporal and spatial scales varied.Conclusions
The influence of landscape configuration on LST exists but should not be overestimated. Comparison of numerous variables at multiple spatiotemporal scales can help identify the influence of multiple landscape characteristics on LST variation.10.
John B. Graham Joan I. Nassauer William S. Currie Herbert Ssegane M. Cristina Negri 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(5):1023-1037
Context
Wild bee populations are currently under threat, which has led to recent efforts to increase pollinator habitat in North America. Simultaneously, U.S. federal energy policies are beginning to encourage perennial bioenergy cropping (PBC) systems, which have the potential to support native bees.Objectives
Our objective was to explore the potentially interactive effects of crop composition, total PBC area, and PBC patches in different landscape configurations.Methods
Using a spatially-explicit modeling approach, the Lonsdorf model, we simulated the impacts of three perennial bioenergy crops (PBC: willow, switchgrass, and prairie), three scenarios with different total PBC area (11.7, 23.5 and 28.8% of agricultural land converted to PBC) and two types of landscape configurations (PBC in clustered landscape patterns that represent realistic future configurations or in dispersed neutral landscape models) on a nest abundance index in an Illinois landscape.Results
Our modeling results suggest that crop composition and PBC area are particularly important for bee nest abundance, whereas landscape configuration is associated with bee nest abundance at the local scale but less so at the regional scale.Conclusions
Strategies to enhance wild bee habitat should therefore emphasize the crop composition and amount of PBC.11.
Context
Landscape modification is an important driver of biodiversity declines, yet we lack insight into how ongoing landscape change and legacies of historical land use together shape biodiversity.Objectives
We examined how a history of agricultural land use and current forest fragmentation influence the abundance of red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We hypothesized that historical agriculture and fragmentation cause changes in habitat quality and landscape structure that limit abundance.Methods
We measured salamander abundance at 95 forested sites in New York, USA, and we determined whether sites were agricultural fields within the last five decades. We used a structural equation model to estimate relationships between historical agriculture and salamander abundance mediated by changes in forest vegetation, microclimate, and landscape structure.Results
Historical agriculture affected salamander abundance by altering forest vegetation at a local scale and forest cover at a landscape scale. Abundance was lowest at post-agricultural sites with low woody vegetation, leaf litter depth, and canopy cover. Post-agricultural sites had limited forest cover in the surrounding landscape historically, and salamander abundance was positively related to historical forest cover, suggesting that connectivity to source populations affects colonization of regenerating forests. Abundance was also negatively related to current forest fragmentation.Conclusions
Historical land use can have legacy effects on animal abundance on par with effects of ongoing landscape change. We showed that associations between animal abundance and historical land use can be driven by altered site conditions and surrounding habitat area, indicating that restoration efforts should consider local site conditions and landscape context.12.
Alexander G. Watts Santiago Saura Claire Jardine Patrick Leighton Lisa Werden Marie-Josée Fortin 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(11):1925-1938
Context
In the ecology of Lyme disease emergence, it remains unclear to what extent spread of the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) and the pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi) are dependent upon the dispersal of vertebrate hosts in spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Yet, empirical measure of these complex ecologically driven spread processes present conceptual and methodological challenges despite important public health implications.Objectives
To examine the relationship between landscape characteristics and tick-borne disease spread, we modeled the influence of landscape connectivity for a simplified vertebrate host community (white-footed mouse—Peromyscus leucopus, American robin—Turdus migratorius, white-tailed deer—Odocoileus virginianus) on the potential spread of the tick population compared to the pathogen in a spatially-structured landscape.Methods
We parameterized a hybrid demographic-dispersal connectivity model by combining a series of reported host dispersal and tick burden estimates with empirically-measured tick abundance and pathogen prevalence sampled from a Lyme-endemic island landscape in Thousand Islands National Park (Ontario, Canada) and simulated several tick- and pathogen-spread scenarios.Results
The extent of tick spread by mice [amount of reachable habitat (ARH)?=?18.0%] is considerably similar to that of robins (ARH?=?18.7%), while deer support the greatest tick spread extent (ARH?=?82.0%). Infected mice carrying ticks support the highest pathogen spread (ARH?=?19.8%). Short-distance pathogen spread and long-distance tick spread were facilitated by intermediate stepping stone habitat fragments.Conclusions
We provide evidence that host functional connectivity mediates tick spread differently than pathogen spread, and depends strongly on landscape configuration. Our study therefore emphasizes the importance of landscape spatial heterogeneity on the ecological processes that influence regional tick-borne disease spread.13.
Koen F. Tieskens Brian J. Shaw Toon Haer Catharina J. E. Schulp Peter H. Verburg 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(11):2113-2132
Context
Hedgerows are typical landscape features of high environmental and cultural value that often have been sacrificed for agricultural intensification and scale enlargement.Objectives
We studied the dynamics of hedgerow quality over time in a case study area renowned for its hedgerow landscapes: South West Devon (UK) answering the following research questions: (1) how does the imperative of scale enlargement affect hedgerow quality? and (2) to what extent can cultural landscape degradation be countered by targeted policies?Methods
We applied an agent-based modeling approach, parameterized with a site specific survey, to explore and discuss outcomes of future landscape change with stakeholders and co-designed preferred scenarios of landscape change during a workshop.Results
Outcomes suggested that in the case-study area, scale enlargement has a negative effect on hedgerow quality when agri-environment scheme subsidies (AES) are low. In contrast, if the level of AES enrollment is high, scale enlargement can have a positive effect on hedgerow quality, as large holders are more likely to enroll for AES. Stakeholders acknowledged the need for agricultural intensification, but at the same time valued biodiversity and environmental value of the landscape in South West Devon.Conclusion
Current AES are able to retain a decent hedgerow quality. With lower AES, scale enlargement can have an invigorative effect on hedgerow quality as land managers of larger farms will be less likely to join AES As an addition to AES, harvesting wood fuel from coppiced hedgerows appears a promising way to incentivize rejuvenating hedgerow management without governmental subsidies.14.
Malika Virah-Sawmy Lindsey Gillson Charlie J. Gardner Atholl Anderson Geoffrey Clark Simon Haberle 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(3):637-654
Context
Integrated conservation decision-making frameworks that help to design or adjust practices that are cognisant of environmental change and adaptation are urgently needed.Objective
We demonstrate how a landscape vulnerability framework combining sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure to climate change framed along two main axes of concern can help to identify potential strategies for conservation and adaptation decision-making, using a landscape in Madagascar’s spiny forest as a case-study.Methods
To apply such a vulnerability landscape assessment, we inferred the sensitivity of habitats using temporal and spatial botanical data-sets, including the use of fossil pollen data and vegetation surveys. For understanding adaptive capacity, we analysed existing spatial maps (reflecting anthropogenic stressors) showing the degree of habitat connectivity, matrix quality and protected area coverage for the different habitats in the landscape. Lastly, for understanding exposures, we used climate change predictions in Madagascar, together with a digital elevation model.Results
The fossil pollen data showed how sensitive arid-adapted species were to past climate changes, especially the conditions between 1000 and 500 cal yr BP. The spatial analysis then helped locate habitats on the two-dimensional axes of concern integrating sensitivity, adaptive capacity and climate change exposure. By identifying resistant, resilient, susceptible, and sensitive habitats to climate change in the landscape under study, we identify very different approaches to integrate conservation and adaptation strategies in contrasting habitats.Conclusion
This framework, illustrated through a case study, provides easy guidance for identifying potential integrated conservation and adaptation strategies, taking into account aspects of climate vulnerability and conservation capacity.15.
Context
Alaskan landscapes are changing due to climate change impacts. Maintaining or restoring landscape connectivity is a widely suggested climate change adaptation strategy because species are shifting their distributions to align with emerging conditions. Natural resource managers in Alaska have an opportunity to proactively design connected landscapes as infrastructure networks and economic development continue to increase in the state.Objectives
We provide an example of strategic, multijurisdictional planning to maintain landscape connectivity at a large spatial scale.Methods
We use geodiversity to model climate-resilient landscape linkages between conservation lands within and adjacent to a 59-million-acre planning area.Results
The resulting landscape linkage design consists of as little as 1% of the planning area, but can connect over 64 million acres of conservation land allowing the Bureau of Land Management to leverage the current land designations to maximize the conservation value of the entire landscape.Conclusions
Maintaining landscape connectivity is above and beyond the mandates and responsibilities of a single organization or land owner. Bridging institutions and partnerships, such as the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative, can facilitate the coordination needed for this type of multi-jurisdictional planning effort. The opportunity to manage proactively, rather than waiting for system degradation and then responding reactively, should not be undervalued. The implementation of this work will serve as a model for other relatively intact systems and moreover showcases the potential of twenty-first century models of conservation and sustainability.16.
Context
The provision of multiple ecosystem services (ES) within a landscape is commonly referred to as landscape multifunctionality. Modifying landscapes to increase multifunctionality and reduce trade-offs with concurrent services bears the potential to enhance sustainability in human-dominated landscapes. Assessing landscape multifunctionality is thus crucial for land management and planning, but lack of a clear definition and operationalization of multifunctionality impedes comparisons of different study results.Objectives
We want to address how elements of the study design affect results of multifunctionality assessments. Furthermore, we want to quantify future multifunctionality in the European Union (EU) and indicate the role of land use change and land use diversity on multifunctionality.Methods
We analyzed diverging scenarios depicting land use change in the EU between 2000 and 2040 for their effects on landscape multifunctionality. We tested different multifunctionality indicators at various spatial scales based on the modelling of 12 ES and biodiversity indicators.Results
Particularly the analysis scale determines the interpretation of landscape multifunctionality. Coldspots identified by different indicators are in higher agreement than hotspots. We could not confirm links between land use diversity and landscape multifunctionality. While, at EU scale, multifunctionality slightly increases in future scenarios, agricultural intensification and (peri-)urban growth pose large threats to multifunctional landscapes.Conclusions
The choice of indicator and analysis scale strongly determine possible interpretations of the results. Rather than focusing on the impacts of land use change on multifunctionality, it is recommended to base land use policy on the impacts of location-specific change on ES supply and demands.17.
Mauricio Almeida-Gomes Jayme Augusto Prevedello Daniela Lopes Scarpa Jean Paul Metzger 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(5):929-937
Context
Landscape ecology has traditionally been taught through theoretical classes or computer labs. On the other hand, field labs have been generally less used as a way of teaching landscape ecology concepts.Objectives
We show that field labs with an inquiry-based approach, where students are involved in the investigation, are feasible for training students in landscape ecology. We evaluated how common field labs are in landscape ecology courses, and also their contribution for student learning.Methods
We evaluated whether field labs are used in landscape ecology courses by scanning available syllabi. We also used outcomes from a course offered in Brazil to show how field labs can be integrated into landscape ecology courses.Results
Only 18.2 % of the 44 syllabi we found had field labs. The case study developed in Brazil showed that field labs allowed students to develop important skills, including the ability to design field studies, choose appropriate scales of analysis, detect ecological patterns, and judge multiple hypotheses.Conclusions
Field labs are still uncommon in landscape ecology courses, but they can be a useful tool to teach landscape ecology concepts and to help students developing the necessary skills to do research. We offer recommendations regarding how to incorporate field labs in landscape ecology courses.18.
Romain Carrié Emilie Andrieu Annie Ouin Ingolf Steffan-Dewenter 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(8):1631-1642
Context
The local intensity of farming practices is considered as an important driver of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes and its effect on biodiversity has been shown to interact with landscape complexity. But the influence of landscape-wide intensity of farming practices on biodiversity and its combined effect with landscape complexity have been little explored.Objective
In this study, we tested the interactive effect of the landscape-wide intensity of farming practices and landscape complexity on the local species richness and abundance of farmland wild bee communities.Methods
We captured wild bees in 96 crop fields and explored the effect of landscape-wide intensity of various farming practices along a gradient of landscape complexity (proportion of semi-natural habitats).Results
We found that species richness and abundance of wild bees were more positively influenced by landscape complexity in highly insecticide-sprayed landscapes than in less intensively managed landscapes. In contrast, we found that the positive effect of landscape complexity on bee species richness only occurred in landscapes with low nitrogen inputs.Conclusions
Our study demonstrates the interactive effects of landscape-wide farming intensity and landscape complexity in shaping the diversity of farmland wild bee communities. We conclude that the management of farming intensity at the landscape-scale could mitigate the effects of habitat loss on wild bee decline and would help to maintain pollination services in agricultural landscapes.19.
Context
Resilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.Objectives
(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.Methods
We applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.Results
Landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.Conclusions
Fires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.20.