People and pines 1555<Emphasis Type="Bold">–</Emphasis>1910: integrating ecology,history and archaeology to assess long-term resource use in northern Fennoscandia

Context

Past human land use has received increasing attention as an important driver of ecosystem change also in seemingly natural landscapes. Quantification of historical land use is therefore critical for assessing the degree of human impact and requires integration of ecology, history and archaeology.

Objective

This study aims to assess and compare levels of resource use by different actors during 355 years across a large landscape of northern Sweden.

Method

Data on resource use derived from case studies were extrapolated using demographic data to estimate harvested resources at the landscape scale. Here, we examined the use of the key-specie Scots pine by native Sami peoples and farmers and through commercial logging, and reconstructed historical forest conditions in order to interpret harvest levels and sustainability.

Results

We show that (1) the pre-industrial use of Scots pine resources in Pite Lappmark was sustainable from a landscape perspective, and (2) that the early commercial logging, in contrast, was not sustainable. Large and old Scots pine trees were logged at a very high rate, reaching up to 300 % of the annual ingrowth.

Conclusion

We suggest that historical landscape studies should incorporate analysis at different spatial scales, as such an approach can mirror the overall use of resources. Only then can land use data be applied across larger spatial scales, function as reference values and be compared to those of other regions, time-periods and types of human impact.

     

Analyzing land use change to identify migration corridors of African elephants (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Loxodonta africana</Emphasis>) in the Kenyan-Tanzanian borderlands

Context

East African ecosystems are characterized by the migrations of large herbivores that are highly vulnerable to the recent development of anthropogenic land use change.

Objectives

We analyzed land cover changes in the Kenyan-Tanzanian borderlands of the greater Amboseli ecosystem to evaluate landscape connectivity using African elephants as an indicator species.

Methods

We used multi-temporal Landsat imagery and a post classification approach to monitor land cover changes over a 43-year period. GIS based methods were accompanied by a literature review for spatial data on land cover changes and elephant migrations.

Results

Land cover changed considerably between 1975 and 2017. Wood- and bushlands declined by 16.3% while open grasslands increased throughout the study region (+?10.3%). Agricultural expansion was observed (+?12.2%) occupying important wildlife habitats and narrowing migration corridors. This development has led to the isolation of Nairobi National Park which was previously part of a large contiguous ecosystem. Eight migration corridors were identified of which only one is formally protected. Two others are almost completely blocked by agriculture and three are expected to become endangered under continuing land use changes.

Conclusions

Landscape connectivity is still viable for this ecosystem (except for Nairobi National Park). However, the current situation is very fragile as anthropogenic land use changes are threatening most of the identified large mammal migration corridors. Sustainable land use planning with regard to important wildlife habitats and connecting corridors is a crucial task for further conservation work to safeguard a viable future for wildlife populations in the Kenyan-Tanzanian borderlands.

     

Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests

Context

Forests throughout eastern North America continue to recover from broad-scale intensive land use that peaked in the nineteenth century. These forests provide essential goods and services at local to global scales. It is uncertain how recovery dynamics, the processes by which forests respond to past forest land use, will continue to influence future forest conditions. Climate change compounds this uncertainty.

Objectives

We explored how continued forest recovery dynamics affect forest biomass and species composition and how climate change may alter this trajectory.

Methods

Using a spatially explicit landscape simulation model incorporating an ecophysiological model, we simulated forest processes in New England from 2010 to 2110. We compared forest biomass and composition from simulations that used a continuation of the current climate to those from four separate global circulation models forced by a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5).

Results

Simulated forest change in New England was driven by continued recovery dynamics; without the influence of climate change forests accumulated 34 % more biomass and succeed to more shade tolerant species; Climate change resulted in 82 % more biomass but just nominal shifts in community composition. Most tree species increased AGB under climate change.

Conclusions

Continued recovery dynamics will have larger impacts than climate change on forest composition in New England. The large increases in biomass simulated under all climate scenarios suggest that climate regulation provided by the eastern forest carbon sink has potential to continue for at least a century.

     

Using animal movement behavior to categorize land cover and predict consequences for connectivity and patch residence times

Context

Landscape-scale population dynamics are driven in part by movement within and dispersal among habitat patches. Predicting these processes requires information about how movement behavior varies among land cover types.

Objectives

We investigated how butterfly movement in a heterogeneous landscape varies within and between habitat and matrix land cover types, and the implications of these differences for within-patch residence times and among-patch connectivity.

Methods

We empirically measured movement behavior in the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton) in three land cover classes that broadly constitute habitat and two classes that constitute matrix. We also measured habitat preference at boundaries. We predicted patch residence times and interpatch dispersal using movement parameters estimated separately for each habitat and matrix land cover subclass (5 categories), or for combined habitat and combined matrix land cover classes (2 categories). We evaluated the effects of including edge behavior on all metrics.

Results

Overall, movement was slower within habitat land cover types, and faster in matrix cover types. Butterflies at forest edges were biased to remain in open areas, and connectivity and patch residence times were most affected by behavior at structural edges. Differences in movement between matrix subclasses had a greater effect on predictions about connectivity than differences between habitat subclasses. Differences in movement among habitat subclasses had a greater effect on residence times.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the importance of careful classification of movement and land cover in heterogeneous landscapes, and reveal how subtle differences in behavioral responses to land cover can affect landscape-scale outcomes.

     

Additive and synergistic effects of land cover,land use and climate on insect biodiversity

Context

We address the issue of adapting landscapes for improved insect biodiversity conservation in a changing climate by assessing the importance of additive (main) and synergistic (interaction) effects of land cover and land use with climate.

Objectives

We test the hypotheses that ant richness (species and genus), abundance and diversity would vary according to land cover and land use intensity but that these effects would vary according to climate.

Methods

We used a 1000 m elevation gradient in eastern Australia (as a proxy for a climate gradient) and sampled ant biodiversity along this gradient from sites with variable land cover and land use.

Results

Main effects revealed: higher ant richness (species and genus) and diversity with greater native woody plant canopy cover; and lower species richness with higher cultivation and grazing intensity, bare ground and exotic plant groundcover. Interaction effects revealed: both the positive effects of native plant canopy cover on ant species richness and abundance, and the negative effects of exotic plant groundcover on species richness were greatest at sites with warmer and drier climates.

Conclusions

Impacts of climate change on insect biodiversity may be mitigated to some degree through landscape adaptation by increasing woody native vegetation cover and by reducing land use intensity, the cover of exotic vegetation and of bare ground. Evidence of synergistic effects suggests that landscape adaptation may be most effective in areas which are currently warmer and drier, or are projected to become so as a result of climate change.

     

Multifunctionality at what scale? A landscape multifunctionality assessment for the European Union under conditions of land use change

Context

The provision of multiple ecosystem services (ES) within a landscape is commonly referred to as landscape multifunctionality. Modifying landscapes to increase multifunctionality and reduce trade-offs with concurrent services bears the potential to enhance sustainability in human-dominated landscapes. Assessing landscape multifunctionality is thus crucial for land management and planning, but lack of a clear definition and operationalization of multifunctionality impedes comparisons of different study results.

Objectives

We want to address how elements of the study design affect results of multifunctionality assessments. Furthermore, we want to quantify future multifunctionality in the European Union (EU) and indicate the role of land use change and land use diversity on multifunctionality.

Methods

We analyzed diverging scenarios depicting land use change in the EU between 2000 and 2040 for their effects on landscape multifunctionality. We tested different multifunctionality indicators at various spatial scales based on the modelling of 12 ES and biodiversity indicators.

Results

Particularly the analysis scale determines the interpretation of landscape multifunctionality. Coldspots identified by different indicators are in higher agreement than hotspots. We could not confirm links between land use diversity and landscape multifunctionality. While, at EU scale, multifunctionality slightly increases in future scenarios, agricultural intensification and (peri-)urban growth pose large threats to multifunctional landscapes.

Conclusions

The choice of indicator and analysis scale strongly determine possible interpretations of the results. Rather than focusing on the impacts of land use change on multifunctionality, it is recommended to base land use policy on the impacts of location-specific change on ES supply and demands.

     

A social-ecological approach to land-use conflict to inform regional and conservation planning and management

Context

Conflict over land use is endemic to natural resource management given the limited availability of resources and multiple stakeholders’ interests, but there has been limited research to examine conflict from an integrative social-ecological perspective.

Objectives

We sought to determine how the potential for land use conflict—a social construct—was related (or not) to ecological systems of landscapes.

Methods

Using participatory mapping data from a regional case study in Australia, we identified the potential for land use conflict using a model that combines spatially-explicit place values with preferences for specific land uses related to development and conservation. Multiple proxies of biodiversity were used to evaluate the landscape’s ecological systems at ecosystems and species levels. Range maps were used to identify areas of high species diversity value using the conservation planning software Zonation.

Results

We spatially intersected conflict areas with landscape attributes and found the potential for conflict over conservation to be higher in coastal areas than inland areas, more likely to be located in areas with moderate vegetation cover, more concentrated in ecosystems classified as ‘No Concern’ with moderate to high native vegetation. Potential conflict over conservation was disproportionately higher in areas with higher species diversity derived from conservation modelling.

Conclusions

The social-ecological associations in conflict analysis can inform impact assessment of land use plans on biodiversity, assist development of effective approaches to reconcile conservation and other land uses, support conservation planning by identifying priorities for conflict negotiation and understanding underlying factors for conflict.

     

Multi-scale assessment of human-induced changes to Amazonian instream habitats

Context

Land use change and forest degradation have myriad effects on tropical ecosystems. Yet their consequences for low-order streams remain very poorly understood, including in the world´s largest freshwater basin, the Amazon.

Objectives

Determine the degree to which physical and chemical characteristics of the instream habitat of low-order Amazonian streams change in response to past local- and catchment-level anthropogenic disturbances.

Methods

To do so, we collected field instream habitat (i.e., physical habitat and water quality) and landscape data from 99 stream sites in two eastern Brazilian Amazon regions. We used random forest regression trees to assess the relative importance of different predictor variables in determining changes in instream habitat response variables.

Results

Multiple drivers, operating at multiple spatial scales, were important in determining changes in the physical habitat and water quality of the sites. Although we found few similarities in modelled relationships between the two regions, we observed non-linear responses of specific instream characteristics to landscape change; for example 20 % of catchment deforestation resulted in consistently warmer streams.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the importance of local riparian and catchment-scale forest cover in shaping instream physical environments, but also underscore the importance of other land use changes and activities, such as road crossings and upstream agriculture intensification. In contrast to the property-scale focus of the Brazilian Forest code, which governs environmental regulations on private land, our results reinforce the importance of catchment-wide management strategies to protect stream ecosystem integrity.

     

Synergistic effects of climate and land cover: grassland birds are more vulnerable to climate change

Context

Climate change is not occurring over a homogeneous landscape and the quantity and quality of available land cover will likely affect the way species respond to climate change. The influence of land cover on species’ responses to climate change, however, is likely to differ depending on habitat type and composition.

Objectives

Our goal was to investigate responses of forest and grassland breeding birds to over 20 years of climate change across varying gradients of forest and grassland habitat. Specifically, we investigated whether (i) increasing amounts of available land cover modify responses of forest and grassland-dependent birds to changing climate and (ii) the effect of increasing land cover amount differs for forest and grassland birds.

Methods

We used Bayesian spatially-varying intercept models to evaluate species- and community-level responses of 30 forest and 10 grassland birds to climate change across varying amounts of their associated land cover types.

Results

Responses of forest birds to climate change were weak and constant across a gradient of forest cover. Conversely, grassland birds responded strongly to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, increasing temperatures led to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, and this effect was intensified in regions with low amounts of grassland cover.

Conclusions

Within the context of northeastern forests and grasslands, we conclude that forests serve as a possible buffer to the impacts of climate change on birds. Conversely, species occupying open, fragmented grassland areas might be particularly at risk of a changing climate due to the diminished buffering capacity of these ecosystems.

     

Using topographic geodiversity to connect conservation lands in the Central Yukon,Alaska

Context

Alaskan landscapes are changing due to climate change impacts. Maintaining or restoring landscape connectivity is a widely suggested climate change adaptation strategy because species are shifting their distributions to align with emerging conditions. Natural resource managers in Alaska have an opportunity to proactively design connected landscapes as infrastructure networks and economic development continue to increase in the state.

Objectives

We provide an example of strategic, multijurisdictional planning to maintain landscape connectivity at a large spatial scale.

Methods

We use geodiversity to model climate-resilient landscape linkages between conservation lands within and adjacent to a 59-million-acre planning area.

Results

The resulting landscape linkage design consists of as little as 1% of the planning area, but can connect over 64 million acres of conservation land allowing the Bureau of Land Management to leverage the current land designations to maximize the conservation value of the entire landscape.

Conclusions

Maintaining landscape connectivity is above and beyond the mandates and responsibilities of a single organization or land owner. Bridging institutions and partnerships, such as the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative, can facilitate the coordination needed for this type of multi-jurisdictional planning effort. The opportunity to manage proactively, rather than waiting for system degradation and then responding reactively, should not be undervalued. The implementation of this work will serve as a model for other relatively intact systems and moreover showcases the potential of twenty-first century models of conservation and sustainability.

     

The potential to restore native woody plant richness and composition in a reforesting landscape: a modeling approach in the Ecuadorian Andes

Context

Natural regenerating forests are rapidly expanding in the tropics. Forest transitions have the potential to restore biodiversity. Spatial targeting of land use policies could improve the biodiversity benefits of reforesting landscapes.

Objective

We explored the relative importance of landscape attributes in influencing the potential of tree cover increase to restore native woody plant biodiversity at the landscape scale.

Methods

We developed land use scenarios that differed in spatial patterns of reforestation, using the Pangor watershed in the Ecuadorian Andes as a case study. We distinguished between reforestation through natural regeneration of woody vegetation in abandoned fallows and planted forests through managed plantations of exotic species on previously cultivated land. We simulated the restoration of woody plant biodiversity for each scenario using LANDIS-II, a process-based model of forest dynamics. A pair-case comparison of simulated woody plant biodiversity for each scenario was conducted against a random scenario.

Results

Species richness in natural regenerating fallows was considerably higher when occurring in: (i) close proximity to remnant forests; (ii) areas with a high percentage of surrounding forest cover; and (iii) compositional heterogeneous landscapes. Reforestation at intermediate altitudes also positively affected restoration of woody plant species. Planted exotic pine forests negatively affected species restoration.

Conclusions

Our research contributes to a better understanding of the recolonization processes of regenerating forests. We provide guidelines for reforestation policies that aim to conserve and restore woody plant biodiversity by accounting for landscape attributes.

     

Anuran responses to spatial patterns of agricultural landscapes in Argentina

Context

Amphibians are declining worldwide and land use change to agriculture is recognized as a leading cause. Argentina is undergoing an agriculturalization process with rapid changes in landscape structure.

Objectives

We evaluated anuran response to landscape composition and configuration in two landscapes of east-central Argentina with different degrees of agriculturalization. We identified sensitive species and evaluated landscape influence on communities and individual species at two spatial scales.

Methods

We compared anuran richness, frequency of occurrence, and activity between landscapes using call surveys data from 120 sampling points from 2007 to 2009. We evaluated anuran responses to landscape structure variables estimated within 250 and 500-m radius buffers using canonical correspondence analysis and multimodel inference from a set of candidate models.

Results

Anuran richness was lower in the landscape with greater level of agriculturalization with reduced amount of forest cover and stream length. This pattern was driven by the lower occurrence and calling activity of seven out of the sixteen recorded species. Four species responded positively to the amount of forest cover and stream habitat. Three species responded positively to forest cohesion and negatively to rural housing. Two responded negatively to crop area and diversity of cover classes.

Conclusions

Anurans within agricultural landscapes of east-central Argentina are responding to landscape structure. Responses varied depending on species and study scale. Life-history traits contribute to responses differences. Our study offers a better understanding of landscape effects on anurans and can be used for land management in other areas experiencing a similar agriculturalization process.

     

Policy impacts on regulating ecosystem services: looking at the implications of 60 years of landscape change on soil erosion prevention in a Mediterranean silvo-pastoral system

Context

Policy decisions form a major driver of land use change, with important implications for socially and environmentally susceptible regions. It is well known that there can be major unintended consequences, especially where policies are not tailored to regionally specific contexts.

Objectives

In this paper we assess the implications of 60 years of agricultural policies on soil erosion prevention (SEP) by vegetation, an essential regulating ecosystem service in Mediterranean Europe.

Methods

To assess these implications we produced and analysed a time series of land cover/use and environmental conditions datasets (from 1951 to 2012) in relation to changing agricultural policies for a specific region in the southern Portugal. A set of indicators related to SEP allowed us to identify that land use intensification as increased soil erosion in the last 60 years.

Results

Particularly in the last 35 years, as a consequence of headage payments for cattle, the agricultural policy had a significant effect in the density and renewal of the tree cover, resulting in drastic effects for the provision of the SEP service. These are more significant after 1986, coinciding with the implementation of several Common Agricultural Policy instruments focused on increasing the modernization and productivity capacity of farm systems.

Conclusions

The results show some unintended effects of agricultural policy mechanisms on ecosystem service provision and highlight the need for context-based policies, tailored to the environmental constrains and potentials of each region.

     

Processes and driving forces in changing cultural landscapes across Europe

Context

Cultural landscapes evolve over time. However, the rate and direction of change might not be in line with societal needs and more information on the forces driving these changes are therefore needed.

Objectives

Filling the gap between single case studies and meta-analyses, we present a comparative study of landscape changes and their driving forces based in six regions across Europe conducted using a consistent method.

Methods

A LULC analysis based on historical and contemporary maps from the nineteenth and twentieth century was combined with oral history interviews to learn more about perceived landscape changes, and remembered driving forces. Land cover and landscape changes were analysed regarding change, conversions and processes. For all case study areas, narratives on mapped land cover change, perceived landscape changes and driving forces were compiled.

Results

Despite a very high diversity in extent, direction and rates of change, a few dominant processes and widespread factors driving the changes could be identified in the six case study areas, i.e. access and infrastructure, political shifts, labor market, technological innovations, and for the more recent period climate change.

Conclusions

Grasping peoples’ perception supplements the analyses of mapped land use and land cover changes and allows to address perceived landscape changes. The list of driving forces determined to be most relevant shows clear limits in predictability: Whereas changes triggered by infrastructural developments might be comparatively easy to model, political developments cannot be foreseen but might, nevertheless, leave major marks in the landscape.

     

Effects of land use legacies and habitat fragmentation on salamander abundance

Context

Landscape modification is an important driver of biodiversity declines, yet we lack insight into how ongoing landscape change and legacies of historical land use together shape biodiversity.

Objectives

We examined how a history of agricultural land use and current forest fragmentation influence the abundance of red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We hypothesized that historical agriculture and fragmentation cause changes in habitat quality and landscape structure that limit abundance.

Methods

We measured salamander abundance at 95 forested sites in New York, USA, and we determined whether sites were agricultural fields within the last five decades. We used a structural equation model to estimate relationships between historical agriculture and salamander abundance mediated by changes in forest vegetation, microclimate, and landscape structure.

Results

Historical agriculture affected salamander abundance by altering forest vegetation at a local scale and forest cover at a landscape scale. Abundance was lowest at post-agricultural sites with low woody vegetation, leaf litter depth, and canopy cover. Post-agricultural sites had limited forest cover in the surrounding landscape historically, and salamander abundance was positively related to historical forest cover, suggesting that connectivity to source populations affects colonization of regenerating forests. Abundance was also negatively related to current forest fragmentation.

Conclusions

Historical land use can have legacy effects on animal abundance on par with effects of ongoing landscape change. We showed that associations between animal abundance and historical land use can be driven by altered site conditions and surrounding habitat area, indicating that restoration efforts should consider local site conditions and landscape context.

     

Integrating airborne lidar and satellite imagery to model habitat connectivity dynamics for spatial conservation prioritization

Context

The application of regional-level airborne lidar (light detection and ranging) data to characterize habitat patches and model habitat connectivity over large landscapes has not been well explored. Maintaining a connected network of habitat in the presence of anthropogenic disturbances is essential for regional-level conservation planning and the maintenance of biodiversity values.

Objectives

We quantified variation in connectivity following simulated changes in land cover and contrasted outcomes when different conservation priorities were emphasized.

Methods

First, we defined habitat patches using vegetation structural attributes identified via lidar. Second, habitat networks were constructed for different forest types and assessed using network connectivity metrics. And finally, land cover change scenarios were simulated using a series of habitat patch removals, representing the impact of implementing different spatial prioritization schemes.

Results

Networks for different forest structure types produced very different patch distributions. Conservation scenarios based on different schemes led to contrasting changes during land cover change simulations: the scheme prioritizing only habitat area resulted in immediate near-term losses in connectivity, whereas the scheme considering both habitat area and their spatial configurations maintained the overall connectivity most effectively. Adding climate constraints did not diminish or improve overall connectivity.

Conclusions

Both habitat area and habitat configuration should be considered in dynamic modeling of habitat connectivity under changing landscapes. This research provides a framework for integrating forest structure and cover attributes obtained from remote sensing data into network connectivity modeling, and may serve as a prototype for multi-criteria forest management and conservation planning.

     

Land cover influences boreal-forest fire responses to climate change: geospatial analysis of historical records from Alaska

Context

Wildfire activity in boreal forests is projected to increase dramatically in response to anthropogenic climate change. By altering the spatial arrangement of fuels, land-cover configuration may interact with climate change to influence fire-regime dynamics at landscape and regional scales.

Objectives

We evaluate how land cover interacts with weather conditions to influence boreal-forest burning from 2012 to 2014 in Alaska.

Methods

Using geospatial fire and land-cover data, we quantify relationships between area burned and land cover, and test whether observed patterns of burning differ from random under varying weather conditions and fire sizes.

Results

Mean summer moisture index was correlated with annual area burned (ρ = ?0.78, p < 0.01), the total number of fires (ρ = ?0.68, p = 0.01), and the number of large fires (>500 km²; ρ = ?0.58, p = 0.04). Area burned was related positively to percent cover of coniferous forest and woody wetlands, and negatively to percent cover of shrub scrub, dwarf scrub, and open water and barren areas. Fires preferentially burned coniferous forest, which represented 50.1 % of the area burned in warmer/drier summers and 40.3 % of area burned in cooler/wetter summers, compared to the 34.5 % (±4.2 %) expected by random selection of land-cover classes. Overall vegetation tended to burn more similarly to random in warmer/drier than cooler/wetter years.

Conclusions

Land cover exerted greater influences on boreal fire regimes when weather conditions were less favorable for forest burning. Reliable projections of boreal fire-regime change thus require consideration of the interactions between climate and land cover, as well as feedbacks from land-cover change.

     

Multi-temporal trajectories of landscape change explain forest biodiversity in urbanizing ecosystems

Context

Forest loss and fragmentation negatively affect biodiversity. However, disturbances in forest canopy resulting from repeated deforestation and reforestation are also likely important drivers of biodiversity, but are overlooked when forest cover change is assessed using a single time interval.

Objectives

We investigated two questions at the nexus of plant diversity and forest cover change dynamics: (1) Do multitemporal forest cover change trajectories explain patterns of plant diversity better than a simple measure of overall forest change? (2) Are specific types of forest cover change trajectories associated with significantly higher or lower levels of diversity?

Methods

We sampled plant biodiversity in forests spanning the Charlotte, NC, region. We derived forest cover change trajectories occurring within nested spatial extents per sample site using a time series of aerial photos from 1938 to 2009, then classified trajectories by spatio-temporal patterns of change. While accounting for landscape and environmental covariates, we assessed the effects of the trajectory classes as compared to net forest cover change on native plant diversity.

Results

Our results indicated that forest stand diversity is best explained by forest change trajectories, while the herb layer is better explained by net forest cover change. Three distinct forest change trajectory classes were found to influence the forest stand and herb layer.

Conclusions

The influence of forest dynamics on biodiversity can be overlooked in analyses that use only net forest cover change. Our results illustrate the utility of assessing how specific trajectories of past land cover change influence biodiversity patterns in the present.

     

Characterizing combined fire and insect outbreak disturbance regimes in British Columbia,Canada

Context

Fires and insect outbreaks are important agents of forest landscape change, but the classification and distribution of these combined processes remain unstudied aspects of forest disturbance regimes.

Objectives

We sought to map areas of land characterized by homogenous fire regime (HFR) attributes and by distinctive combinations of fire, bark beetles and defoliating insect outbreaks, and how their distribution might change should current climatic trends continue.

Methods

We used a 41-year history of mapped fires and forest insect outbreaks to classify HFRs and combined fire and insect disturbance regimes (HDRs). Spatially constrained cluster analysis of 2524 20-km grid cells used mean annual area burned, ignition Julian date, fire size and fire frequency to delineate HFR zones. Mean annual areas burned, affected by bark beetles, and affected by defoliators were used to delineate HDR zones. Random forests classification used climate associations of HDRs to project likely changes in their distribution.

Results

Eighteen HFR zones accounted for 30% of variance, compared to 27 HDR zones accounting for 59% of variance. Fire regime designation had low predictive power in explaining 23 homogenous insect outbreak regimes or the 27 HDRs. Climate change projections indicate a northward migration of current HDR zones. Conditions suitable for defoliator outbreaks are projected to increase, resulting in a projected increase in the total rate of forest disturbance.

Conclusions

When describing forest disturbance regimes, it is important to consider the combined and possibly interacting agents of tree mortality, which can result in emergent properties not predictable from any single agent.

     

Fire regimes and forest resilience: alternative vegetation states in the West African tropics

Context

Terrestrial ecosystems, including tropical forests, are hypothesized to have tipping points beyond which environmental change triggers rapid and radical shifts to novel alternative states.

Objective

We explored the overarching hypothesis that fire-mediated alternative stable states exist in the semi-deciduous tropical forest zone of Ghana, and that increased fire activity has pushed some forests to a new state in which a novel ecosystem with low tree density is maintained by fire.

Methods

We combined a 30-year time series of remotely-sensed data with field measurements to assess land cover trends, the effects of fire on forest vegetation, and the reciprocal effects of vegetation change on fire regimes, in four forest reserves. We analyzed precipitation trends to determine if shifts in vegetation and fire regime reflected a shift to a drier climate.

Results

Two of the reserves experienced forest loss, were impacted by frequent fires, and transitioned to a vegetation community dominated by shrubs and grasses, which was maintained by fire–vegetation feedbacks. The other two reserves experienced less fire, retained higher levels of forest cover, and resisted fire encroachment from surrounding agricultural areas. Precipitation remained relatively stable, suggesting a hysteresis effect in which different vegetation states and fire regimes coexist within a similar climate.

Conclusion

There is potential for human land use and fire to create novel and persistent non-forest vegetation communities in areas that are climatically suitable for tropical forests. These disturbance-mediated regime shifts should be taken into account when assessing future trajectories of forest landscape change in West Africa.