Predicting grey squirrel expansion in North Italy: a spatially explicit modelling approach

There is growing concern about the spread of the North American grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in northern Italy which were introduced into Piedmont in 1948. They have since spread across the Po-plain covering an area of approximately 450 km² and continue to expand their range. In parallel to what has been observed in Britain and Ireland, grey squirrels replace the native red squirrel (S. vulgaris) and damage poplar (Populus) plantations through bark-stripping. Spatially explicit population dynamics models have been successfully used to predict the spread of grey squirrels in East Anglia, England. We extended a previous approach employing a sensitivity analysis where life history and other demographic inputs are generated using Latin Hypercube Sampling from the known ranges of each input parameter, and applied it to Italy using field data collected in Piedmont. The analysis indicated that reproductive output was the most important factor determining total population size present in Piedmont. The structure and composition of woodland habitats around the introduction site suggested that initial grey squirrel expansion would have been slow and subject to emigration rates from the available habitat blocks.A comparison of the 1996 survey results with model predictions indicated that a mean litter size of three young gave the best fit with the observed distribution and we use this to predict future grey squirrel spread. We also present a worst case scenario in which grey squirrels experience improved reproductive success due to the availability of high quality habitats beyond the Po plain. In both cases they could disperse along existing continuous woodland corridors into France between 2039–2048. The case of the grey squirrel highlights the problems of implementing conservation conventions and the resulting conflicts between wildlife management, public perception and local political support and the narrow time frame that is available to control alien species effectively before it is too late. If allowed to spread, grey squirrels have the potential of becoming a European forest pest species and are likely to replace the native red squirrel in large parts of its range.     

Canberra''s Urban Forest: Evolution and planning for future landscapes

Canberra, Australia's national capital, is a planned city established on grazing lands in the southern tablelands of New South Wales. Over the past nine decades it has grown into a garden city of 300,000 people. Landscaping was an early priority as much of the chosen site for the city was a treeless plain. Major tree planting began in the 1920's and today the urban forest on public lands contains 400,000 trees from over 200 species in streets and parklands. The species used have changed over time with exotic deciduous trees and conifers dominating early plantings. By the 1970's native species, mostly eucalypts, were planted. Today fewer species comprising an equal mix of native and exotics are used. Trees in the earlier plantings are now mature and given the harshness of the local climate many will come to the end of their ‘safe life’ in the early decades of this century. This provides new challenges for urban tree managers as to how to effect tree replacement that is aesthetically pleasing, ecologically sound and socially acceptable. To assist in this planning a tree data base and modeling system has been assembled. This system – Decision Information System for Managing Urban Trees or DISMUT – facilitates the development of forest-level management programs by allowing the projection of change and work requirements that the result from historical and current plantings over the entire urban forest.     

Modeling invasive species spread in complex landscapes: the case of potato moth in Ecuador

Tropical mountains have a long history of human occupation, and although vulnerable to biological invasions, have received minimal attention in the literature. Understanding invasive pest dynamics in socio-ecological, agricultural landscapes, like the tropical Andes, is a challenging but timely issue for ecologists as it may provide developing countries with new tools to face increasing threats posed by these organisms. In this work, road rehabilitation into a remote valley of the Ecuadorian Andes constituted a natural experiment to study the spatial propagation of an invasive potato tuber moth into a previously non-infested agricultural landscape. We used a cellular automaton to model moth spatio-temporal dynamics. Integrating real-world variables in the model allowed us to examine the relative influence of environmental versus social landscape heterogeneity on moth propagation. We focused on two types of anthropogenic activities: (1) the presence and spatial distribution of traditional crop storage structures that modify local microclimate, and (2) long-distance dispersal (LDD) of moths by human-induced transportation. Data from participatory monitoring of pest invasion into the valley and from a larger-scale field survey on the Ecuadorian Andes allowed us to validate our model against actual presence/absence records. Our simulations revealed that high density and a clumped distribution of storage structures had a positive effect on moth invasion by modifying the temperature of the landscape, and that passive, LDD enhanced moth invasion. Model validation showed that including human influence produced more precise and realistic simulations. We provide a powerful and widely applicable methodological framework that stresses the crucial importance of integrating the social landscape to develop accurate invasion models of pest dynamics in complex, agricultural systems.     

A frame-based spatially explicit model of subarctic vegetation response to climatic change: comparison with a point model

An important challenge in global-change research is to simulate short-term transient changes in climate, disturbance regime, and recruitment that drive long-term vegetation distributions. Spatial features (e.g., topographic barriers) and processes, including disturbance propagation and seed dispersal, largely control these short-term transient changes. Here we present a frame-based spatially explicit model (ALFRESCO) that simulates landscape-level response of vegetation to transient changes in climate and explicitly represents the spatial processes of disturbance propagation and seed dispersal. The spatial model and the point model from which it was developed showed similar results in some cases, but diverged in situations where interactions among neighboring cells (fire spread and seed dispersal) were crucial. Topographic barriers had little influence on fire size in low-flammability vegetation types, but reduced the average fire size and increased the number of fires in highly flammable vegetation (dry grassland). Large fires were more common in landscapes with large contiguous patches of two vegetation types while a more heterogeneous vegetation distribution increased fires in the less flammable vegetation type. When climate was held constant for thousands of years on a hypothetical landscape with the same initial vegetation, the spatial and point models produced identical results for some climates (cold, warm, and hot mesic), but produced markedly different results at current climate and when much drier conditions were imposed under a hot climate. Spruce migration into upland tundra was slowed or prevented by topographic barriers, depending on the size of the corridor. We suggest that frame-based, spatially explicit models of vegetation response to climate change are a useful tool to investigate both short- and long-term transients in vegetation at the regional scale. We also suggest that it is difficult to anticipate when non-spatial models will be reliable and when spatially explicit models are essential. ALFRESCO provides an important link between models of landscape-level vegetation dynamics and larger spatio-temporal models of global climate change.     

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer’s land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH–Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes.     

Scaling simulation models for spatially heterogeneous ecosystems with diffusive transportation

The behavioral dependence of vegetation simulation models for spatially heterogeneous grasslands on simulation resolution was investigated. The dependence can be largely attributed to the non-linearity of the models. We showed that increasing scale or decreasing spatial resolution tended to overestimate the changing rate of an ecosystem using our landscape simulation model for alkaline grasslands in northeast China. A technique for scaling up simulation models with diffusive transportation was developed in this study by means of expanding the nonlinear driving functions in the model. The analysis showed that a simulation model for spatially heterogeneous landscapes might necessitate modification of both its mathematical structure and parameterization when applied to different scales. The scaling coefficients derived in this study were shown to be proportional to the variances or covariance of the spatially referenced variables, and can be estimated by running the model at a fine resolution for selected samples of the coarser grid cells. The technique was applied to a grassland landscape in northeast China and the results were compared with five-year observations on community succession. The comparison indicated that the proposed technique could effectively reduce overall scaling error of the model by as much as 80%, depending on the scaling difference between the fine and the coarse resolutions as well as the sampling scheme used.     

Plant strategies and agricultural landscapes: survival in spatially and temporally fragmented habitat

In agricultural landscapes many plant species are limited to the network of landscape elements that are not used for agricultural production. This habitat is fragmented in space and time due to anthropogenic, biotic and abiotic factors. Therefore, plant populations are spatially sub-divided and their persistence might be dependent on the spatial dynamics in the network of local populations. Dispersal characteristics and seed bank persistence are main determinants of colonization ability which in turn is a key determinant of metapopulation viability. We propose a conceptual model that relates plant population dynamics to habitat quality, configuration and dynamics. In this model, the habitat is arranged as a network of suitable and unsuitable patches,and the distribution of the patches is assumed to be dynamic in time. Based on dispersal and seed bank characteristics four plant strategies are distinguished:species having either long (> 100 m) or short (< 100m) distance dispersal and either a long (> 5 yr)or short (< 5 yr) term persistent seed bank. We expect that species with contrasting strategies have different survival probabilities in landscapes with contrasting habitat arrangement in space and time. We found few empirical studies for testing the hypotheses based on the model. Therefore the relation between landscapes and plant survival needs to be further explored,especially the quantitative aspects. We propose an iterative process of empirical and modelling research to determine this relation and to define management options for multifunctional farms in which biodiversity is one of the land use aims. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Conservation planning in a fire-prone Mediterranean region: threats and opportunities for bird species

In response to the processes threatening biodiversity such as habitat loss, effective selection of priority conservation areas is required. However, reserve selection methods usually ignore the drivers of future habitat changes, thus compromising the effectiveness of conservation. In this work, we formulated an approach to explicitly quantify the impact of fire on conservation areas, considering such disturbance as a driver of land-cover changes. The estimated fire impact was integrated as a constraint in the reserve selection process to tackle the likely threats or opportunities that fire disturbance might cause to the targeted species depending on their habitat requirements. In this way, we selected conservation areas in a fire-prone Mediterranean region for two bird assemblages: forest and open-habitat species. Differences in conservation areas selected before and after integrating the impact of fire in the reserve selection process were assessed. Integration of fire impact for forest species moved preferences towards areas that were less prone to burn. However, a larger area was required to achieve the same conservation goals. Conversely, integration of fire impacts for open-habitat species shifted preferences towards conservation areas in locations where the persistence of their required habitat is more likely (i.e. shrublands). In other words, we prioritized the conservation of not only the current distribution of open-habitat birds, but also the disturbance process (i.e. fire) that favours their preferred habitat and distributions in the long term. Finally, this work emphasizes the need to consider the opposing potential impacts of wildfires on species for an effective conservation planning.     

Adaptive models for large herbivore movements in heterogeneous landscapes

Enzymes are protein catalysts of extraordinary efficiency, capable of bringing about rate enhancements of their biochemical reactions that can approach factors of 10²⁰. Theories of enzyme catalysis, which seek to explain the means by which enzymes effect catalytic transformation of the substrate molecules on which they work, have evolved over the past century from the “lock-and-key” model proposed by Emil Fischer in 1894 to models that explicitly rely on transition state theory to the most recent theories that strive to provide accounts that stress the essential role of protein dynamics. In this paper, I attempt to construct a metaphysical framework within which these new models of enzyme catalysis can be developed. This framework is constructed from key doctrines of process thought, which gives ontologic priority to becoming over being, as well as tenets of a process philosophy of chemistry, which stresses environmentally-responsive molecular transformation. Enzyme catalysis can now be seen not as enzyme acting on its substrate, but rather as enzyme and substrate entering into a relation which allows them to traverse the reaction coordinate as an ontologic unity x̄.     

Landscape pattern in topographically complex landscapes: issues and techniques for analysis

Ecological research provides ample evidence that topography can exert a significant influence on the processes shaping broad-scale landscape vegetation patterns. Studies that ignore this influence run the risk of misinterpreting observations and making inappropriate recommendations to the management community. Unfortunately, the standard methods for landscape pattern analysis are not designed to include topography as a pattern-shaping factor. In this paper, we present a set of techniques designed to incorporate the topographic mosaic into analyses of landscape pattern and dynamics. This toolbox includes adjustments to classic landscape indices that account for non-uniform landscape topography, indices that capture associations and directionality in vegetation pattern due to topographic structure, and the application of statistical models to describe relationships between topographic characteristics and vegetation pattern. To illustrate these methods, we draw on examples from our own analysis of landscape pattern dynamics in logged and unlogged forest landscapes in southwestern British Columbia. These examples also serve to illustrate the importance of considering topography in both research and management applications.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Fine-scale movement decisions by a large carnivore inform conservation planning in human-dominated landscapes

Landscape Ecology - Developed landscapes are increasingly important movement habitat for many large carnivore populations, despite fragmentation and heightened anthropogenic risks. The availability...     

Thinking outside the patch: a multi-species comparison of conceptual models from real-world landscapes

Context

When modeling a species’ distribution, landscapes can alternatively be conceptualized following patch- or gradient-based approaches. However, choosing the most suitable conceptualization is difficult and methods for empirical validation are still lacking.

Objectives

To address the conditions under which a given conceptual model is more suitable, taking into account landscape context and species trait dependency effects. Patch- and gradient-based conceptualizations were built based on two structurally different landscapes: variegated and mosaic. We hypothesize that: (H1) gradient-based models better describe variegated landscapes while patch-based models perform better in mosaic landscapes; and (H2) gradient-based models will fit generalist species better while patch-based models will suit specialists better.

Methods

We modeled the distribution of eleven bird species in each landscape using each conceptualization. We determined the suitability of each conceptual model to fit statistical models by looking for cross-species responses and deviations from best models.

Results

We found no clear support for our hypotheses. Although patch-based models performed better in mosaic landscapes (H1), they also provided useful conceptualizations in variegated landscapes. However, when patches showed high heterogeneity, gradient-based approaches better fit specialist species (H2).

Conclusions

The suitability of a given conceptual model depends on the interaction between species habitat specialization, and the intrinsic spatial heterogeneity of the landscape and the ability of each conceptualization to capture it. Gradient-based models provide better information on resource allocation, while patch-based models offer a simplified perspective on landscape attributes. Future research should consider the nature of both species and landscapes in order to avoid bias from inadequate landscape conceptualizations.

     

Changes in agricultural land use can explain population decline in a ladybeetle species in the Czech Republic: evidence from a process-based spatially explicit model

Changes in land use affect species interactions and population dynamics by modifying the spatial template of trophic interaction and the availability of resources in time and space. We developed a process-based spatially explicit model for evaluating the effects of land use on species viability by modelling foraging performance and energy sequestration in a stage structured, three-trophic population model. The model is parameterized with realistic parameters for a ladybeetle–aphid–host plant interaction, and is run in four realistic landscapes in the Czech Republic. We analysed whether changes in crop selection and fertilizer input could explain the dramatic and unexplained decline in abundance of the ladybeetle Coccinella septempunctata in the Czech Republic from 1978 to 2005. The results indicate that a major reduction in fertilizer input after the transition to a market economy, resulting in lower aphid population densities in cereal crops and negatively affecting energy sequestration, survival and reproduction of ladybeetles, provides a sufficient explanation for the observed population decline. Simulations further indicated that the population viability of C. septempunctata is highly dependent on availability of aphid prey in crops, in particular cereal, which serves as their major reproduction habitat. The results demonstrate how the abundance of naturally occurring predators, which are instrumental for biological pest control, depends upon the spatial resource template that are provided at the landscape scale.     

Integrative approach for landscape-based graph connectivity analysis: a case study with the common frog (Rana temporaria) in human-dominated landscapes

Graph-based analysis is a promising approach for analyzing the functional and structural connectivity of landscapes. In human-shaped landscapes, species have become vulnerable to land degradation and connectivity loss between habitat patches. Movement across the landscape is a key process for species survival that needs to be further investigated for heterogeneous human-dominated landscapes. The common frog (Rana temporaria) was used as a case study to explore and provide a graph connectivity analysis framework that integrates habitat suitability and dispersal responses to landscape permeability. The main habitat patches influencing habitat availability and connectivity were highlighted by using the software Conefor Sensinode 2.2. One of the main advantages of the presented graph-theoretical approach is its ability to provide a large choice of variables to be used based on the study’s assumptions and knowledge about target species. Based on dispersal simulation modelling in potential suitable habitat corridors, three distinct patterns of nodes connections of differing importance were revealed. These patterns are locally influenced by anthropogenic barriers, landscape permeability, and habitat suitability. And they are affected by different suitability and availability gradients to maximize the best possible settlement by the common frog within a terrestrial habitat continuum. The study determined the key role of landscape-based approaches for identifying the “availability-suitability-connectivity” patterns from a local to regional approach to provide an operational tool for landscape planning.     

Spatial assessment of aesthetic services in a complex mountain region: combining visual landscape properties with crowdsourced geographic information

Context

Human and natural systems interact at multiple scales which are context specific in relation to ecosystem service supply. Scenic beauty is recognised as a cultural ecosystem service whose aesthetic value is perceived at a holistic landscape level.

Objectives

In this study we provide methodological advancements for assessing the relationship between landscape visual character and scenic beauty based on crowdsourced geographic information. The final aim is to demonstrate, through a case study application, an empirical method for mapping the scenic beauty of complex mountain landscapes from the perspective of observers which are realistically exposed to the environment being evaluated.

Methods

We propose a viewshed based approach which relies on visual indicators and the location of visitors retrieved by public image storage analysis. A cluster analysis was used to integrate visual characters of the landscape and visiting users’ preferences.

Results

Four different typologies of landscapes were finally characterized by distinct values of visual indicators. The spatial distribution of the landscape typologies presented a clustered pattern, allowing a regionalization of the landscape characters. The analysis of the visiting users’ provenance revealed that visual scale, naturalness and ephemera attract mainly foreign users, while imageability, complexity and historicity attract mostly domestic and local users.

Conclusions

The combination of crowdsourced images with visual indicators allows a systematic analysis of landscape scenic beauty properties. In all, by understanding how specific landscape characters contributes to aesthetic service provision we provide a tool for facilitating the visualization and interpretation of complex landscape characters.

     

Uncertainty analysis as a tool for refining land dynamics modelling on changing landscapes: a case study in a Spanish Natural Park

In this study we developed a methodology aimed at improving the assessment of inter-annual land cover dynamics from hard classified remotely sensed data in heterogeneous and resilient landscapes. The methodology is implemented for the Spanish Natural Park of Sierra de Ancares, where human interference during the last century has resulted in the destruction and fragmentation of the original land cover. We ran supervised classifications, with a maximum likelihood algorithm (Maxlike), on a temporal series of Landsat images (1991–2005), followed by an uncertainty assessment using fuzzy classifications and confusion indices (CIs). This allowed us to show how much (and where) of the resulting maps contained a substantial amount of error, distinguishing data that might be useful to measure land change from data that are not particularly useful when applying a post-classification comparison methodology. In this way, we can detect true changes not skewed by the effects of uncertainty. Even if patterns of change were always coherent amongst years, they were more realistic after reducing uncertainty, in spite of a substantial decrease in the number of available pixels (i.e. unmasked by the method). We then computed land cover dynamics by means of a model specifically designed to determine the frequency of disturbances (mainly fire events) and the vegetation recovery time during the study period. Model outputs showed correlated landscape patterns at a broad scale and provided useful results to explore land cover change from pattern to process.