Spatiotemporal patterns,relationships, and drivers of China’s agricultural ecosystem services from 1980 to 2010: a multiscale analysis

Context

During the past three decades, China’s agroecosystem has undergone dramatic alterations because of changes in climatic and management factors, which threatened agricultural sustainability.

Objectives

We investigated how climatic and management factors affected agricultural ecosystem services (AES).

Methods

We adopted the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate the five critical AES: food production, soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrate leaching, water erosion, and wind erosion from 1980 to 2010 and used a partial least square regression model to quantify the contributions of the drivers of the variation in the AES on the main grain-producing area (MGPA), climatic zone, and national scales.

Results

On the MGPA scale, SOC exhibited no obvious change and food production increased, whereas the negative environmental effects largely increased. The MGPA is important to ensure the safety of China’s food supply. At the climatic zone scale, food production and SOC increased, water erosion in the tropical-subtropical monsoonal zone and water and wind erosion in the temperate monsoonal zone decreased, whereas N leaching, water erosion, and wind erosion increased in other climate zones. At the national scale, food production, SOC, N leaching, and wind erosion increased, whereas water erosion decreased. The crop cultivated area played a major role in the effect on food production and SOC. The dominant factors for N leaching, water erosion, and wind erosion varied with crop type and study scales.

Conclusions

Adjustment of agricultural management measures is vital and possible to minimize the tradeoffs, increase the synergies among agro ecosystem services, and promote adaptation to the changing climate.

     

Spatial determinants of Atlantic Forest loss and recovery in Brazil

Context

Despite continued forest cover losses in many parts of the world, Atlantic Forest, one of the largest of the Americas, is increasing in some locations. Economic factors are suggested as causes of forest gain, while enforcement has reduced deforestation.

Objectives

We examine three aspects of this issue: the relative importance of biophysical versus anthropogenic factors in driving forest dynamics; role of forest mean patch age influencing areas targeted for losses; and what future forest mean patch age mosaic we can expect (more forest cover and full forest maturity?).

Methods

Three land cover maps from 1990, 2000 and 2010, were used in the study. We selected six biophysical and six anthropogenic spatial determinants to analyze by means of weights of evidence, using Dinamica software.

Results

Results show that forest regrowth is influenced by multiple factors, working in synergy. Biophysical variables are related to forest gain while anthropogenic are associated with loss. Clear patterns of regrowth on pasture and sugarcane plantations occurred, especially near rivers and forest patches, on steeper slopes and with sufficient rainfall. Forest loss has targeted both older and newer forests. Future projections reveal forest gain in a slow pace, followed by specific ecosystem service losses, due to continuous trends of older mature forest loss.

Conclusions

Regrowth is linked to land abandonment, and to neighboring environmental conditions. It is important to question which mechanisms will guarantee and potentiate new regrowth, thus contributing to landscape restoration and reestablishment of ecosystem services in the Atlantic Forest.

     

High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes

Context

Predicting climate-driven species’ range shifts depends substantially on species’ exposure to climate change. Mountain landscapes contain a wide range of topoclimates and soil characteristics that are thought to mediate range shifts and buffer species’ exposure. Quantifying fine-scale patterns of exposure across mountainous terrain is a key step in understanding vulnerability of species to regional climate change.

Objectives

We demonstrated a transferable, flexible approach for mapping climate change exposure in a moisture-limited, mountainous California landscape across 4 climate change projections under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for mid-(2040–2069) and end-of-century (2070–2099).

Methods

We produced a 149-year dataset (1951–2099) of modeled climatic water deficit (CWD), which is strongly associated with plant distributions, at 30-m resolution to map climate change exposure in the Tehachapi Mountains, California, USA. We defined climate change exposure in terms of departure from the 1951–1980 mean and historical range of variability in CWD in individual years and 3-year moving windows.

Results

Climate change exposure was generally greatest at high elevations across all future projections, though we encountered moderate topographic buffering on poleward-facing slopes. Historically dry lowlands demonstrated the least exposure to climate change.

Conclusions

In moisture-limited, Mediterranean-climate landscapes, high elevations may experience the greatest exposure to climate change in the 21st century. High elevation species may thus be especially vulnerable to continued climate change as habitats shrink and historically energy-limited locations become increasingly moisture-limited in the future.

     

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Context

Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.

Objectives

The goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.

Methods

We conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.

Results

We uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.

Conclusions

Future distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

     

Planning for the future: identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change

Context

Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.

Objectives

We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes.

Methods

We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and non-threatened priority areas.

Results

19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses.

Conclusions

We identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.

     

Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

Context

Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.

Objectives

LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.

Methods

We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Results

Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.

Conclusions

Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.

     

Synergistic effects of climate and land cover: grassland birds are more vulnerable to climate change

Context

Climate change is not occurring over a homogeneous landscape and the quantity and quality of available land cover will likely affect the way species respond to climate change. The influence of land cover on species’ responses to climate change, however, is likely to differ depending on habitat type and composition.

Objectives

Our goal was to investigate responses of forest and grassland breeding birds to over 20 years of climate change across varying gradients of forest and grassland habitat. Specifically, we investigated whether (i) increasing amounts of available land cover modify responses of forest and grassland-dependent birds to changing climate and (ii) the effect of increasing land cover amount differs for forest and grassland birds.

Methods

We used Bayesian spatially-varying intercept models to evaluate species- and community-level responses of 30 forest and 10 grassland birds to climate change across varying amounts of their associated land cover types.

Results

Responses of forest birds to climate change were weak and constant across a gradient of forest cover. Conversely, grassland birds responded strongly to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, increasing temperatures led to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, and this effect was intensified in regions with low amounts of grassland cover.

Conclusions

Within the context of northeastern forests and grasslands, we conclude that forests serve as a possible buffer to the impacts of climate change on birds. Conversely, species occupying open, fragmented grassland areas might be particularly at risk of a changing climate due to the diminished buffering capacity of these ecosystems.

     

Time-delayed influence of urban landscape change on the susceptibility of koalas to chlamydiosis

Context

Infectious diseases are important in the dynamics of many wildlife populations, but there is limited understanding of how landscape change influences susceptibility to disease.

Objectives

We aimed to quantify the time-delayed influence of spatial and temporal components of landscape change and climate variability on the prevalence of chlamydiosis in koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in southeast Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We used data collected over 14 years (n = 9078 records) from a koala hospital along with time-lagged measures of landscape change and rainfall to conduct spatial and temporal analyses of the influence of landscape and environmental variables on prevalence of chlamydiosis and koala body condition.

Results

Areas with more suitable habitat were associated with higher levels of disease prevalence and better body condition, indicating that koalas were less likely to be impacted by chlamydiosis. More intact landscapes with higher proportions of total habitat are associated with a reduction in prevalence of chlamydiosis and a decrease in body condition. Increased annual rainfall contributed to a decrease in prevalence of chlamydiosis and an increase in body condition. Urbanization was associated with an increase in disease, however the effects of urban landscape change and climate variability on chlamydiosis may not manifest until several years later when overt disease impacts the population via effects upon body condition and reproductive success.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the importance of effects of landscape change and climate variability on disease prevalence in wildlife. This recognition is essential for long-term conservation planning, especially as disease often interacts with other threats.

     

A multi-scale analysis of western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics

Context

Forest insect outbreaks are influenced by ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, including host-insect interactions within stands and across landscapes that are modified by regional-scale variations in climate. These drivers of outbreak dynamics are not well understood for the western spruce budworm, a defoliator that is native to forests of western North America.

Objectives

Our aim was to assess how processes across multiple spatial scales drive western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics. Our objective was to assess the relative importance and influence of a set of factors covering the stand, landscape, and regional scales for explaining spatiotemporal outbreak patterns in British Columbia, Canada.

Methods

We used generalized linear mixed effect models within a multi-model interference framework to relate annual budworm infestation mapped from Landsat time series (1996–2012) to sets of stand-, landscape-, and regional-scale factors derived from forest inventory data, GIS analyses, and climate models.

Results

Outbreak patterns were explained well by our model (R ² = 93%). The most important predictors of infestation probability were the proximity to infestations in the previous year, landscape-scale host abundance, and dry autumn conditions. While stand characteristics were overall less important predictors, we did find infestations were more likely amongst pure Douglas-fir stands with low site indices and high crown closure.

Conclusions

Our findings add to growing empirical evidence that insect outbreak dynamics are driven by multi-scaled processes. Forest management planning to mitigate the impacts of budworm outbreaks should thus consider landscape- and regional-scale factors in addition to stand-scale factors.

     

Habitat and food supply across multiple spatial scales influence the distribution and abundance of a nocturnal aerial insectivore

Context

Conservation research often focuses on individual threats at a single spatial scale, but population declines can result from multiple stressors occurring at different spatial scales. Analyses incorporating alternative hypotheses across spatial scales allow more robust evaluation of the ecological processes underlying population declines.

Objectives

Populations of many aerially insectivorous birds are declining, yet conservation efforts remain focused on habitat due to an absence of data on changes in prey availability. We evaluate the potential for prey and habitat availability at multiple spatial scales to influence a population of eastern whip-poor-wills (Antrostomus vociferous).

Methods

We assess relationships between landcover (topographical map and satellite imagery) and insect abundance (moths and beetles from blacklight traps), and whip-poor-will distribution and abundance within eastern Canada using Ontario breeding bird atlas data (1980s and 2000s), acoustic recordings (regional), and point counts (local).

Results

Whip-poor-will occurrence in both atlas time periods was positively associated with forest area and fragmentation, but only a delayed effect of urban area explained reductions in detection. Contemporary regional whip-poor-will presence was positively related to moth abundance, and local whip-poor-will abundance was best predicted by area of open-canopy forest, anthropogenic linear disturbance density, and beetle abundance. Our finding that bird presence and abundance were associated with human activity and insect abundance across spatial scales suggests factors beyond habitat structure are likely driving population declines in whip-poor-wills and other aerial insectivores.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the importance of examining multiple hypotheses, including seasonally and locally variable food availability, across a range of spatial scales to direct conservation efforts.

     

A landscape vulnerability framework for identifying integrated conservation and adaptation pathways to climate change: the case of Madagascar’s spiny forest

Context

Integrated conservation decision-making frameworks that help to design or adjust practices that are cognisant of environmental change and adaptation are urgently needed.

Objective

We demonstrate how a landscape vulnerability framework combining sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure to climate change framed along two main axes of concern can help to identify potential strategies for conservation and adaptation decision-making, using a landscape in Madagascar’s spiny forest as a case-study.

Methods

To apply such a vulnerability landscape assessment, we inferred the sensitivity of habitats using temporal and spatial botanical data-sets, including the use of fossil pollen data and vegetation surveys. For understanding adaptive capacity, we analysed existing spatial maps (reflecting anthropogenic stressors) showing the degree of habitat connectivity, matrix quality and protected area coverage for the different habitats in the landscape. Lastly, for understanding exposures, we used climate change predictions in Madagascar, together with a digital elevation model.

Results

The fossil pollen data showed how sensitive arid-adapted species were to past climate changes, especially the conditions between 1000 and 500 cal yr BP. The spatial analysis then helped locate habitats on the two-dimensional axes of concern integrating sensitivity, adaptive capacity and climate change exposure. By identifying resistant, resilient, susceptible, and sensitive habitats to climate change in the landscape under study, we identify very different approaches to integrate conservation and adaptation strategies in contrasting habitats.

Conclusion

This framework, illustrated through a case study, provides easy guidance for identifying potential integrated conservation and adaptation strategies, taking into account aspects of climate vulnerability and conservation capacity.

     

Climate change and ecosystem composition across large landscapes

Context

Climate change alters the vegetation composition and functioning of ecosystems. Measuring the magnitude, direction, and rate of changes in vegetation composition induced by climate remains a serious and unmet challenge. Such information is required for a predictive capability of how individual ecosystem will respond to future climates.

Objectives

Our objectives were to identify the relationships between 20 climate variables and 39 ecosystems across the southwestern USA. We sought to understand the magnitude of relationships between variation in vegetation composition and bioclimatic variables as well as the amount of ecosystem area expected to be affected by future climate changes.

Methods

Bioclimatic variables best explaining the plant species composition of each ecosystem were identified. The strength of relationships between beta turnover and bioclimate gradients was calculated, the spatial concordance of ecosystem and bioclimate configurations was shown, and the area of suitable climate remaining within the boundaries of contemporary ecosystems under future climate projections was measured.

Results

Across the southwestern USA, four climate variables account for most of the climate related variation in vegetation composition. Twelve ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. By 2070, two ecosystems lose about 4000 (15 %) and 7000 (31 %) km² of suitable climate area within their current boundaries (the Western Great Plains Sandhill Steppe and Sonora-Mojave Creosotebush-White Bursage Desert Scrub ecosystems, respectively). The climatic areas of riparian ecosystems are expected to be reduced by half.

Conclusions

Results provide specific climate and vegetation parameters for anticipating how, where and when ecosystem vegetation transforms with climate change. Projecting the loss of suitable climate for the vegetation composition of ecosystems is important for assessing ecosystem threats from climate change and for setting priorities for ecosystem conservation and restoration across the southwestern USA.

     

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Graph theory as an invasive species management tool: case study in the Sonoran Desert

Context

Biodiversity in arid regions is usually concentrated around limited water resources, so natural resource managers have constructed artificial water catchments in many areas to supplement natural waters. Because invasive species may also use these waters, dispersing into previously inaccessible areas, the costs and benefits of artificial waters must be gauged and potential invasion- and climate change-management strategies assayed.

Objectives

We present a network analysis framework to identify waters that likely contribute to the spread of invasive species.

Methods

Using the Sonoran Desert waters network and the American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus)—a known predator, competitor, and carrier of pathogens deadly to other amphibians—as an example, we quantified the structural connectivity of the network to predict regional invasion potential under current and two future scenarios (climate change and management reduction) to identify waters to manage and monitor for invasive species.

Results

We identified important and vulnerable waters based on connectivity metrics under scenarios representing current conditions, projected climate-limited conditions, and conditions based on removal of artificial waters. We identified 122,607 km² of land that could be used as a buffer against invasion and 67,745 km² of land that could be augmented by artificial water placement without facilitating invasive species spread.

Conclusions

Structural connectivity metrics can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies for invasive species and climate mitigation.

     

Matrix transformation alters species-area relationships in fragmented coastal forests

Context

Ecological theory suggests that large habitat fragments should harbour more species than small fragments. However, this may depend on the surrounding matrix. Matrices in fragmented landscapes may either amplify or reduce area effects, which could influence predicted extinctions based on species-area relationships (SARs).

Objective

To determine the influence of matrix type on SARs.

Methods

We surveyed birds within 59 coastal forest fragments in two matrix types, anthropogenic (South Africa) and natural (Mozambique). We classified species as forest specialists or habitat generalists and fitted species-area models to compare how SAR slopes differed among matrix types. We also calculated nestedness and evenness to determine if these varied among matrix type and used logistic regressions to identify species-specific responses to matrix type.

Results

For habitat generalists, SARs were weak within both matrices, while for forest specialists it was strong in the anthropogenic but weak in the natural matrix. In the former, the SAR was similar to those recorded for real islands within archipelagos. Forest specialist assemblages were nested by area within anthropogenic, but not natural matrices. Matrix type did not influence evenness. Area only affected the occurrence of one species when the matrix was natural, compared to 11 species when it was anthropogenic.

Conclusions

Forest specialist bird species conformed to island biogeographic predictions of species loss in forest fragments embedded in anthropogenic, but not natural matrices. Extinctions from small forest fragments might be prevented by conserving natural- or restoring anthropogenic matrices, as well as by increasing forest area.

     

Estimating density of a territorial species in a dynamic landscape

Context

Conservation planning for at-risk species requires understanding of where species are likely to occur, how many individuals are likely to be supported on a given landscape, and the ability to monitor those changes through time.

Objectives

We developed a distribution model for northern spotted owls that incorporates both habitat suitability and probability of territory occupancy while accounting for interspecies competition.

Methods

We developed range-wide habitat suitability maps for two time periods (1993 and 2012) for northern spotted owls that accounted for regional differences in habitat use and home range size. We used these maps for a long-term demographic monitoring study area to assess habitat change and estimate the number of potential territories based on available habitat for both time periods. We adjusted the number of potential territories using known occupancy rates to estimate owl densities for both time periods. We evaluated our range-wide habitat suitability model using independent survey data.

Results

Our range-wide habitat maps predicted areas suitable for territorial spotted owl presence well. On the demographic study area, the amount of habitat declined 19.7% between 1993 and 2012, while our estimate of the habitat-based carrying capacity declined from 150 to 146 territories. Estimated number of occupied territories declined from 94 to 57.

Conclusions

Conservation and recovery of at-risk species depends on understanding how habitat changes over time in response to factors such as wildfire, climate change, biological invasions, and interspecies competition, and how these changes influence species distribution. We demonstrate a model-based approach that provides an effective planning tool.

     

Land cover influences boreal-forest fire responses to climate change: geospatial analysis of historical records from Alaska

Context

Wildfire activity in boreal forests is projected to increase dramatically in response to anthropogenic climate change. By altering the spatial arrangement of fuels, land-cover configuration may interact with climate change to influence fire-regime dynamics at landscape and regional scales.

Objectives

We evaluate how land cover interacts with weather conditions to influence boreal-forest burning from 2012 to 2014 in Alaska.

Methods

Using geospatial fire and land-cover data, we quantify relationships between area burned and land cover, and test whether observed patterns of burning differ from random under varying weather conditions and fire sizes.

Results

Mean summer moisture index was correlated with annual area burned (ρ = ?0.78, p < 0.01), the total number of fires (ρ = ?0.68, p = 0.01), and the number of large fires (>500 km²; ρ = ?0.58, p = 0.04). Area burned was related positively to percent cover of coniferous forest and woody wetlands, and negatively to percent cover of shrub scrub, dwarf scrub, and open water and barren areas. Fires preferentially burned coniferous forest, which represented 50.1 % of the area burned in warmer/drier summers and 40.3 % of area burned in cooler/wetter summers, compared to the 34.5 % (±4.2 %) expected by random selection of land-cover classes. Overall vegetation tended to burn more similarly to random in warmer/drier than cooler/wetter years.

Conclusions

Land cover exerted greater influences on boreal fire regimes when weather conditions were less favorable for forest burning. Reliable projections of boreal fire-regime change thus require consideration of the interactions between climate and land cover, as well as feedbacks from land-cover change.

     

Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management

Context

Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change.

Objectives

Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota.

Methods

Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years.

Results

Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience.

     

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models,and a knowledge-based scoring system

Context

No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates—hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns.

Objective

A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model—DISTRIB II, a species colonization model—SHIFT, and knowledge-based scoring system—MODFACs, to illustrate a decision support framework.

Methods

Using shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) as examples, we project suitable habitats under two future climate change scenarios (harsh, Hadley RCP8.5 and mild CCSM RCP4.5 at ~2100) at a resolution of 10 km and assess the colonization likelihood of the projected suitable habitats at a 1 km resolution; and score biological and disturbance factors for interpreting modeled outcomes.

Results

Shortleaf pine shows increased habitat northward by 2100, especially under the harsh scenario of climate change, and with higher possibility of natural migration confined to a narrow region close to the current species range boundary. Sugar maple shows decreased habitat and has negligible possibility of migration within the US due to a large portion of its range being north of the US border. Combination of suitable habitats with colonization likelihoods also allows for identification of potential locations appropriate for assisted migration, should that be deemed feasible.

Conclusion

The combination of these multiple components using diverse approaches leads to tools and products that may help managers make management decisions in the face of a changing climate.

     

Integrating models across temporal and spatial scales to simulate landscape patterns and dynamics in mountain pasture-woodlands

Context

Pasture-woodlands are semi-natural landscapes that result from the combined influences of climate, management, and intrinsic vegetation dynamics. These landscapes are sensitive to future changes in land use and climate, but our ability to predict the impact on ecosystem service provisioning is limited due to the disparate scales in time and space that govern their dynamics.

Objectives

To develop a process-based model to simulate pasture-woodland landscapes and the provisioning of ecosystem services (i.e., livestock forage, woody biomass and landscape heterogeneity).

Methods

We modified a dynamic forest landscape model to simulate pasture-woodland landscapes in Switzerland. This involved including an annual herbaceous layer, selective grazing from cattle, and interactions between grazing and tree recruitment. Results were evaluated within a particular pasture, and then the model was used to simulate regional vegetation patterns and livestock suitability for a ~198,000 ha landscape in the Jura Vaudois region.

Results

The proportion of vegetation cover types at the pasture level (i.e., open, semi-open and closed forests) was well represented, but the spatial distribution of trees was only broadly similar. The entire Jura Vaudois region was simulated to be highly suitable for livestock, with only a small proportion being unsuitable due to steep slopes and high tree cover. High and low elevation pastures were equally suitable for livestock, as lower forage production at higher elevations was compensated by reduced tree cover.

Conclusions

The modified model is valuable for assessing landscape to regional patterns in vegetation and livestock, and offers a platform to evaluate how climate and management impact ecosystem services.