Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia

ABSTRACT: Disease modelling is one approach for providing new insights into wildlife disease epidemiology. This paper describes a spatio-temporal, stochastic, susceptible- exposed-infected-recovered process model that simulates the potential spread of classical swine fever through a documented, large and free living wild pig population following a simulated incursion. The study area (300 000 km2) was in northern Australia. Published data on wild pig ecology from Australia, and international Classical Swine Fever data was used to parameterise the model. Sensitivity analyses revealed that herd density (best estimate 1-3 pigs km-2), daily herd movement distances (best estimate approximately 1 km), probability of infection transmission between herds (best estimate 0.75) and disease related herd mortality (best estimate 42%) were highly influential on epidemic size but that extraordinary movements of pigs and the yearly home range size of a pig herd were not. CSF generally established (98% of simulations) following a single point introduction. CSF spread at approximately 9 km2 per day with low incidence rates (< 2 herds per day) in an epidemic wave along contiguous habitat for several years, before dying out (when the epidemic arrived at the end of a contiguous sub-population or at a low density wild pig area). The low incidence rate indicates that surveillance for wildlife disease epidemics caused by short lived infections will be most efficient when surveillance is based on detection and investigation of clinical events, although this may not always be practical. Epidemics could be contained and eradicated with culling (aerial shooting) or vaccination when these were adequately implemented. It was apparent that the spatial structure, ecology and behaviour of wild populations must be accounted for during disease management in wildlife. An important finding was that it may only be necessary to cull or vaccinate relatively small proportions of a population to successfully contain and eradicate some wildlife disease epidemics.     

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

A decision-tree was developed to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios based on livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic susceptible–infectious–recovered approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring-vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring-vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and export losses. Ring-vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.     

A stochastic model simulating paratuberculosis in a dairy herd

Paratuberculosis (PTB) causes severe economic losses to farmers and the infection has very complex effects (many indirect) on the production of a dairy herd. These indirect effects have not or only briefly been described by earlier PTB-simulation models, and therefore they were included in a new model called PTB-Simherd. Our aim was to develop the basis for a decision-support tool which can predict herd-specific production-related effects from introduction of different control strategies against PTB. The PTB-Simherd is a dynamic, stochastic, and mechanistic Monte-Carlo model simulating a dairy herd including young stock. Paratuberculosis and relevant control strategies against this infection were built into an existing herd simulation model. The model simulates epidemiological and production related consequences of PTB and control strategies against it in the herd. It also reflects indirect effects of PTB and control strategies through effects on replacements and herd demographics. Every animal in the herd is specified with biological parameters (including PTB state and test results) and it is updated in weekly time-steps. Management is specified at herd level with 353 parameters of which 78 are related to PTB. To demonstrate the basic characteristics of the model, scenarios with varying infection risks (sensitivity analyses) plus scenarios with seven different control strategies in two herds with good and poor reproduction were simulated for 10 years. Breaking of infection routes turned out to be the only strategy predicted to reduce the true prevalence of PTB in a herd. Supplementing this strategy with test-&-cull strategies had limited effect on prevalence and using test-&-cull alone just delayed the increase in prevalence. The effects of different PTB-control strategies on the production (especially sale/purchase of heifers, feed consumption and prevalences of other diseases) were predicted to be affected by other conditions like heat-detection success, replacement% and herd demographics--which were again affected by PTB infection of the herd. These links and indirect effects of control strategies thus seem important to include when modeling and predicting effects of PTB control in dairy herds.     

Comparing the epidemiological and economic effects of control strategies against classical swine fever in Denmark

In 2006, total Danish pork exports were valued at €3.8 billion, corresponding to approximately 5% of the total Danish exports, and an outbreak of a notifiable disease would have dramatic consequences for the agricultural sector in Denmark. Several outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF) have occurred in Europe within the last decade, and different control strategies have been suggested. The objective of this study was to simulate the epidemiological and economic consequences of such control strategies in a CSF epidemic under Danish conditions with respect to herd demographics and geography and to investigate the effect of extra biosecurity measures on farms. We used InterSpread Plus to model the effect of nine different control strategies: the minimum measures required by the EU plus depopulation of contact herds (EUplus), extra depopulation of neighbouring herds, extra surveillance within the protection and surveillance zones, extra biosecurity in SPF herds—or in all herds, vaccination of all pigs in the 1 or 2 km zones using live vaccine as a protective measure (vaccination-to-kill), vaccination of all weaners and finishers in the 1 or 2 km zones using an E2 marker vaccine as a suppressive measure (vaccination-to-live). Each epidemic was simulated to start in four different index herds: production herds located in low, medium and high pig density areas, respectively; and a nucleus herd in an area of high pig density. For each control strategy and index case, we calculated the size and duration of the epidemic, the number of depopulated and/or vaccinated herds and animals, the control costs borne by the public and the pig industry, respectively, as well as the loss of exports associated with the epidemic.The simulations showed that the EUplus strategy is the most effective of the evaluated strategies with respect to limiting the size, duration and cost of the epidemic, regardless of the index case. However, regarding the number of slaughtered animals, the vaccination-to-live strategies appeared to be more effective.Epidemics become larger and last longer if the index case is a nucleus herd. This implies that biosecurity in nucleus herds is extremely important to avoid transmission of CSF to these herds.Simulations showed that a Danish CSF epidemic will be moderate in most cases and will include fewer than 10 cases and last less than 2 weeks on average. However, for some iterations, long-lasting and large epidemics were observed. Irrespective of the size and duration, an epidemic is expected to be very costly due to the export losses.     

Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.     

Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.     

An epidemiological model of rinderpest. II. Simulations of the behaviour of rinderpest virus in populations

Fixed parameters for different hypothetical strains of rinderpest virus (RV) and different susceptible populations are described together with details of their derivation. Simulations were then carried out in a computer model to determine the effects that varying these parameters would have on the behaviour of RV in the different populations. The results indicated that virulent strains of RV are more likely to behave in epidemic fashion whereas milder strains tend towards persistence and the establishment of endemicity. High herd immunity levels prevent virus transmission and low herd immunity levels encourage epidemic transmission. Intermediate levels of immunity assist the establishment of endemicity. The virus is able to persist in large populations for longer than in small populations. Different vaccination strategies were also investigated. In areas where vaccination is inefficient annual vaccination of all stock may be the best policy for inducing high levels of herd immunity. In endemic areas and in herds recovering from epidemics the prevalence of clinically affected animals may be very low. In these situations veterinary officers are more likely to find clinical cases by examining cattle for mouth lesions rather than by checking for diarrhoea or high mortalities.     

Bayesian evaluation of budgets for endemic disease control: An example using management changes to reduce milk somatic cell count early in the first lactation of Irish dairy cows

The aim of this research was to determine budgets for specific management interventions to control heifer mastitis in Irish dairy herds as an example of evidence synthesis and 1-step Bayesian micro-simulation in a veterinary context. Budgets were determined for different decision makers based on their willingness to pay. Reducing the prevalence of heifers with a high milk somatic cell count (SCC) early in the first lactation could be achieved through herd level management interventions for pre- and peri-partum heifers, however the cost effectiveness of these interventions is unknown. A synthesis of multiple sources of evidence, accounting for variability and uncertainty in the available data is invaluable to inform decision makers around likely economic outcomes of investing in disease control measures. One analytical approach to this is Bayesian micro-simulation, where the trajectory of different individuals undergoing specific interventions is simulated. The classic micro-simulation framework was extended to encompass synthesis of evidence from 2 separate statistical models and previous research, with the outcome for an individual cow or herd assessed in terms of changes in lifetime milk yield, disposal risk, and likely financial returns conditional on the interventions being simultaneously applied. The 3 interventions tested were storage of bedding inside, decreasing transition yard stocking density, and spreading of bedding evenly in the calving area. Budgets for the interventions were determined based on the minimum expected return on investment, and the probability of the desired outcome. Budgets for interventions to control heifer mastitis were highly dependent on the decision maker's willingness to pay, and hence minimum expected return on investment. Understanding the requirements of decision makers and their rational spending limits would be useful for the development of specific interventions for particular farms to control heifer mastitis, and other endemic diseases.     

Population biology of pseudorabies in swine

A deterministic mathematical model of the population biology of pseudorabies in swine was used to clarify some of the basic features of the host-virus relationship and to inquire into the circumstances that promote or impede virus persistence in a single herd. When the basic reproductive rate of the infection (ie, the number of secondary infections resulting from the introduction of a single infective animal into a wholly susceptible herd) is greater than unity, the model suggests that the number of infective individuals in the herd will undergo highly damped oscillations to a final equilibrium level. The most important determinants of virus persistence are herd size and the density at which sows are maintained. There is a threshold density of susceptible individuals below which the virus will eventually be eliminated from the herd, even when specific control measures are lacking. Test and removal strategies hasten virus elimination when herd density is already below threshold, but are otherwise likely to succeed only when the removal of latent infections reduces the basic reproductive rate of the infection below unity. Vaccination strategies may also result in virus elimination, but only in relatively small herds.     

Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA

We used a simulation study to assess the impact of an incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus on the livestock industries in an 8-county area of the Panhandle region of Texas, USA. The study was conducted in a high-density livestock area, with an estimated number of cattle on-feed of approximately 1.8 million. We modified an existing stochastic, spatial simulation model to simulate 64 scenarios for planning and decision-making. Our scenarios simulated four different herd types for the index herd (company feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef, backyard) and variations in three mitigation strategies (time-of-detection, vaccine availability, and surveillance during disease control). Under our assumptions about availability of resources to manage an outbreak, median epidemic lengths in the scenarios with commercial feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef and backyard index herd types ranged from 28 to 52, 19 to 39, 18 to 32, and 18 to 36 days, respectively, and the average number of herds depopulated ranged from 4 to 101, 2 to 29, 1 to 15 and 1 to 18, respectively. Early detection of FMD in the index herd had the largest impact on reducing (13–21 days) the length of epidemics and the number of herds (5–34) depopulated. Although most predicted epidemics lasted only 1–2 months, and <100 herds needed to be depopulated, large outbreaks lasting 8–9 months with up to 230 herds depopulated might occur.     

Within-herd contact structure and transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in a persistently infected dairy cattle herd

Within-herd transmission of pathogens occurs either by direct or by indirect contact between susceptible and infected animals. In dairy herds that are structured into groups, the way in which animals encounter each other and share an environment can affect pathogen transmission. Dairy cattle are heterogeneous in terms of susceptibility and infectivity with respect to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) transmission. It is mainly young animals that are susceptible and adults that are infectious. Both vertical and horizontal transmission through the ingestion of Map shed into the environment by adults and transiently infected calves can occur. Our objective was to assess the effect of contact structure on Map transmission in persistently infected dairy herds and to examine the effect of isolating calves from other calves or from adults before weaning. We developed a stochastic compartmental model of Map transmission in a closed dairy herd. The model reflects the Map infection process and herd management characteristics. Indirect transmission via the environment was modelled explicitly. Six infection states (susceptible, resistant, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, and clinically affected) and two contaminated farm area environments (whole farm and calf area) were modelled. Calves were housed in hutches, individual indoor pens, or group indoor pens. Two different levels of exposure of calves to a farm environment contaminated by adults were possible: no exposure and indirect exposure through fomites. Three herd sizes were studied. We found that contacts between calves before weaning did not influence Map transmission in a herd, whereas the level of exposure of calves to an environment contaminated by adults and the starting age of exposure of calves to adults were pivotal. Early culling of clinically affected adults led to a lower prevalence of infectious adults over time. The results were independent of herd size. Despite the many transmission routes that are known, the best control approach is to limit the exposure of calves to adult faeces through the systematic separation of adults and calves in combination with hygiene measures. Reducing contact between calves does not appear effective.     

Evaluation of bluetongue virus diagnostic tests in free-ranging bighorn sheep

Five bluetongue virus (BTV) diagnostic tests were evaluated for use in free-ranging bighorn sheep. We sampled one bighorn sheep population four times between 1989 and 1995. The tests evaluated included virus isolation (VI), polymerase-chain reaction (PCR), serum neutralization (SN), agar-gel immunodiffusion (AGID), and competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (c-ELISA). The c-ELISA, AGID and SN tests had high levels of agreement in determining serogroup exposure in bighorn sheep. We used maximum-likelihood algorithms to estimate the parameters of each diagnostic test used. Although the c-ELISA and AGID had high sensitivity and specificity, the SN had perfect specificity but lower apparent sensitivity. Due to the potential of cross-reactions among multiple serotypes, results of the SN must be interpreted with caution when assessing serotype exposure in an area where multiple serotypes are endemic. The PCR assay delineated convalescent antibody titers from more-recent infections, and consequently, was pivotal in distinguishing a different exposure pattern between the bighorn sheep and cattle in an adjacent herd. Based on an increasing seroprevalence (50% to 100%), BTV circulated through this bighorn sheep population between 1989 and 1993. This increase in seroprevalence coincided with a bighorn die-off due to BTV infection in June, 1991. An adjacent cattle herd was sampled in 1995 for comparison. The bighorn sheep and adjacent cattle had different patterns of exposure to BTV between 1994 and 1995. There was no evidence that BTV circulated through the bighorn sheep population from 1994 to 1995. In 1995, seroprevalence to BTV decreased to 72%, none of yearling bighorn was seropositive, and all of the 39 bighorn sheep were PCR-negative. In contrast, all adult cattle were seropositive to BTV by c-ELISA and SN, and 4 of the calves were seropositive; 11 of the 24 cattle were PCR-positive, including all five calves. Overall, the pattern of temporal herd immunity in the bighorn sheep appeared to follow a classic epidemic curve, with the appearance and subsequent disappearance of herd immunity coinciding with the 1991 die-off in this population. As low levels of herd immunity and high proportions of susceptible animals are key factors in the development of epidemics, this population of bighorn sheep may be at increased risk for a BTV epidemic in the future.     

Network modeling of BVD transmission

ABSTRACT: Endemic diseases of cattle, such as bovine viral diarrhea, have significant impact on production efficiency of food of animal origin with consequences for animal welfare and climate change reduction targets. Many modeling studies focus on the local scale, examining the on-farm dynamics of this infectious disease. However, insight into prevalence and control across a network of farms ultimately requires a network level approach. Here, we implement understanding of infection dynamics, gained through these detailed on-farm modeling studies, to produce a national scale model of bovine viral diarrhea virus transmission. The complex disease epidemiology and on-farm dynamics are approximated using SIS dynamics with each farm treated as a single unit. Using a top down approach, we estimate on-farm parameters associated with contraction and subsequent clearance from infection at herd level. We examine possible control strategies associated with animal movements between farms and find measures targeted at a small number of high-movement farms efficient for rapid and sustained prevalence reduction.     

Biosecurity for reproductive diseases.

Application of rational principles of risk management in designing an effective biosecurity plan for reproductive diseases can be an important part of a profitable operation. Knowledge of the disease status of the particular herd, the effective strategies for disease exclusion including test performance and reservoirs is necessary. Vaccination can be an effective part of a biosecurity program by increasing herd immunity and decreasing the impact of an outbreak, but by itself will not prevent infections and losses. A more comprehensive approach to disease control is needed. Development and implementation of a biosecurity program is an individualized effort undertaken for a particular operation. Knowledge of the disease status of the herd for each agent of concern and prioritization of the diseases most important in the herd is necessary. The biosecurity plan is then specific for the herd and the particular agent(s) of concern. Practitioners can apply knowledge of the epidemiology and ecology of disease agents to identify and implement logical control points for the individual herd. Many control strategies may be effective for more than one disease. A comprehensive look at the operation is necessary to make sure that the cost of the biosecurity plan does not exceed the return in prevented disease and increased production over the planning period.     

Control of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina

A major epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease affected Argentina during 2001. The epidemic was controlled by mass-vaccination of the national herd and movement restrictions. The median herd disease reproduction ratio (R_H) decreased significantly from 2.4 (before the epidemic was officially recognized) to 1.2 during the mass-vaccination campaign and <1 following the mass-vaccination campaign. The largest distance between two outbreaks was similar during (1905 km) and after (1890 km) the mass-vaccination. However, after mass-vaccination was completed, the proportion of herd outbreaks clustered decreased from 70.4% to 66.8%, respectively. Although a combination of vaccination and livestock-movement restrictions was effective in controlling the epidemic, 112 herd outbreaks occurred up to 6 months after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign. Mass-vaccination and movement restrictions might be an effective strategy to control FMD; however, the time taken to end large, national epidemics might be >1 year.     

An object-oriented Bayesian network modeling the causes of leg disorders in finisher herds

The implementation of an effective control strategy against disease in a finisher herd requires knowledge regarding the disease level in the herd. A Bayesian network was constructed that can estimate risk indexes for three cause-categories of leg disorders in a finisher herd. The cause-categories of leg disorders were divided into infectious causes (arthritis caused by infectious pathogens), physical causes (e.g. fracture and claw lesions), and inherited causes (osteochondrosis). Information about the herd (e.g. the herd size, floor type and number of suppliers) and information about individual pigs (e.g. results from diagnostic tests) were used to estimate the most likely cause of leg disorders at herd level. As information to the model originated from two different levels, we used an object-oriented structure in order to ease the specification of the Bayesian network. Hence, a Herd class and a Pig class comprised the basic components of the object-oriented structure. The causal structure of the model was based on evidence from published literature. The conditional probabilities used in the model were elicited from experts within the field and from the published literature. To illustrate the behaviour of the model, we investigated the value of different levels of evidence in two fictitious herds with different herd characteristics related to the risk of leg disorders (e.g. purchase policy, production type and the stocking density in pens). The model enabled us to demonstrate the value of performing systematic collection of additional information (i.e. clinical, pathological and bacteriological examination) when identifying causes of leg disorders at herd level.     

Economic risk analysis model for bovine viral diarrhea virus biosecurity in cow-calf herds

A stochastic model was designed to calculate the cost-effectiveness of biosecurity strategies for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in cow-calf herds. Possible sources of BVDV introduction considered were imported animals, including the calves of pregnant imports, and fenceline contact with infected herds, including stocker cattle raised in adjacent pastures. Spread of BVDV through the herd was modeled with a stochastic SIR model. Financial consequences of BVDV, including lost income, treatment costs, and the cost of biosecurity strategies, were calculated for 10 years, based on the risks of a herd with a user-defined import profile. Results indicate that importing pregnant animals and stockers increased the financial risk of BVDV. Strategic testing in combination with vaccination most decreased the risk of high-cost outbreaks in most herds. The choice of a biosecurity strategy was specific to the risks of a particular herd.     

Risk factors for infection of sow herds with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus

In 1992, the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) of European type (PRRSV-EU) was introduced in Denmark. By 1996, the virus had spread to approximately 25% of the Danish herds. In January 1996, a modified-live vaccine based on the American type of the virus (PRRSV-US) was used in replacement boars for Danish artificial insemination (AI) centres and from July 1996, the vaccine was used in PRRSV-EU infected herds for prevention of disease. Soon after vaccine introduction, PRRSV non-infected herds experienced outbreaks of disease due to infection with PRRSV-US. In this study, we investigated the risk factors (biosecurity level, animals, exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbour herds, semen, herd size, pig density and herd density) for infection with PRRSV-US in a cohort of 1071 sow herds; we used a nested case-control study. The retrospective observation period lasted from June 1996 (when they all were non-infected) to October 1997. Seventy-three non-vaccinated, closed sow herds became infected with the vaccine strain during this period. Each case herd was matched with two control herds from the cohort (controls had not been infected at the time of infection in the case herds). The data were analysed using a Cox-regression model. The hazard of infection increased significantly with exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbouring herds, purchase of animals from herds incubating PRRSV-US infection, increasing herd size and purchase of semen from boars at PRRSV-US-infected AI centres. The results are consistent with the modified-live vaccine strain spread to other herds by trade with animals and semen and by neighbour (area) transmission. We suggest that virus spread by aerosols was a frequent mode of transmission.     

Financial effect of bovine Johne's disease in beef cattle herds in Australia

Objective To assess the financial effect of programs for controlling bovine Johne's disease (BJD) in beef herds. Design A spreadsheet simulation model of a self‐replacing beef herd in south‐eastern Australia selling 400‐kg steers at 15 months old. Methods The model calculated the monthly cash flow, and net present value (NPV) of cumulative cash flow, over 10 years. Four main control options were compared: (1) a base herd (no action to control the disease), (2) test and cull, and (3) partial and (4) total destocking. It was assumed that BJD was eradicated after 3 and 5 years with total and partial destocking, respectively, and not eradicated with a test and cull program. Scenarios were compared for both commercial and stud enterprises. Results If there was no discount on the sale price of cattle in commercial herds, deaths from BJD had to exceed 5% before the NPV of partial or total destocking was similar to taking no action to control the disease over a 10‐year period. When cattle sales incurred a 10% discount, deaths had to exceed 1% before the destocking strategies would break even after 10 years. Conclusion Control options for BJD should be carefully planned on an individual herd basis, as significant production and financial risks accompany destocking programs. Eradication will only be more profitable in the longer term, compared with living with the disease, when discounts on the sale of stock from infected herds are high. This can occur with the selling of store cattle or breeders. In stud herds, BJD will usually cause the total failure of the business.     

Identifying critical parameters in the dynamics and control of microparasite infection using a stochastic epidemiological model

A stochastic epidemic model is presented to study infection transmission dynamics, and hence epidemic severity and disease incidence, in a closed population. The aim was to understand the relative importance of various parameters that influence the dynamics of potential epidemics, particularly when the genetic mechanisms of resistance or tolerance to infection are considered. Simulations explored the effect of varying the transmission coefficient, latent period, recovery period, mortality rate, and the period of loss of immunity on overall epidemic outcomes. The critical parameters influencing the transmission of infection, and hence disease incidence, were the transmission coefficient, the latent period, and the recovery period; the period of loss of immunity had only trivial effects. Ideally, control strategies should decrease the transmission coefficient and/or increase the latent period and/or decrease the recovery period. By equating measured traits with disease transmission parameters, the model described in this paper can be used to identify which disease resistance genes or QTL will be truly effective in helping to develop disease-resistant livestock that suffer fewer epidemics and side-effects of infection. In particular, emphases should be placed on finding genes that decrease the transmission of infection, increase the latent period, or decrease the recovery period.