Spatial Industrial Dynamics in Sweden: Urban Growth Industries

In this paper two basic theories within spatial industrial dynamics—the filtering-down theory and the spatial product cycle theory—are used to explain processes of spatial decentralization and centralization of economic activities. In particular, a case is made for the idea that employment decentralization should be expected not only for growing and maturing manufacturing industries but also for growing and maturing service industries. Based upon this theoretical framework the empirical part of the paper analysis the spatial behavior during the period 1980 to 1993 of the employment in a group of 19 industries in Sweden—the so-called urban growth industries—with an expected high potential for employment decentralization. Most of the industries exhibited the expected pattern of employment decentralization with the larger medium-sized regions as the main winners. A shift-share analysis shows that the overall magnitudes of the competitive shift components are rather small and that, hence, Sweden during the period 1980–1993 did not experience a drastic change in the spatial distribution of its urban growth industries.     

What matters for lagging regions? The role of self-employment and industrial diversity in distressed areas

Previous research suggests that having more self-employed or entrepreneurs can contribute to higher levels of economic growth in distressed areas. Additionally, self-employment in certain industries may be more beneficial to growth. Other research has linked industrial diversity to entrepreneurship and regional growth, especially in urban areas. However, the relationship between industrial diversity, self-employment, and growth in lagging or distressed regions is less clear. To examine these linkages in distressed areas, we first identify a group of distressed counties based on historic data. Then, using detailed industry-level self-employment data, we appraise whether having more self-employed from certain industries is associated with regional growth. We also analyze the relationship between industrial diversity and overall growth and the propensity to be self-employed. The results suggest that having more self-employment overall and in some key industries is associated with more employment growth in distressed counties. We also find that the relationship between economic diversity and self-employment varies by industry and region.     

Regional Growth Dynamics in the Service Sector: The Determinants of Employment Change in UK Regions, 1971–2005

There is a need to better understand the dynamics relating to the evolving economic structure of regions, in particular factors concerning deindustrialisation and the growth of services. In order to unpick the dynamics relating to contemporary regional evolution, this paper examines regional employment in the UK's services sectors from 1971 to 2005. The analysis utilises the statistical technique of multi‐factor partitioning to examine the evolutionary dynamics of employment change in the UK service sector. Overall, differing growth trajectories in services employment across regions appear to be the result of the different underlying industrial structures observed within the regions themselves. The findings indicate that the industrial structure of a region has a significant influence on employment change in services, with related variety being of greater consequence than specialisation. This suggests that diversity, or urbanisation, effects have a greater influence than specialisation effects on “lighter” industries than “heavier” industries. Spatio‐temporal variations within the development of services are evident in the analysis, and there is evidence of convergence across the regions for all sub‐sectors examined. It concludes that in an increasingly services‐dominated economy, diversity and related variety have some weight in explaining regional development paths.     

Who leads regional industrial dynamics? “New industry creators” in Chinese regions

Recent evolutionary economic geography studies have argued that regional diversification emerges as a path‐dependent process, as regions often branch into industries that are related to its industrial structure. However, it is less clear who are creating new industries and under what regional conditions. This research seeks to fill this gap and identify “new industry creators” in regional industrial diversification. We differentiate two types of new industry formation—path‐breaking and path‐dependent—and examine whether some new industry creators are more path‐breaking than others, by incorporating two factors that have been largely overlooked in recent literature on technological relatedness—firm heterogeneity and regional institutions. Based on a firm‐level data set of China’s manufacturing industries, this paper shows that path‐breaking and path‐dependence coexist. Empirical results confirm that firm heterogeneity and regional institutions not only affect the firms’ capabilities in creating new industries, but also encourage/discourage firms to be adventurous and path‐breaking. This research implies that lagging regions can catch up with developed regions by coordinating regional resources and adjusting local institutional arrangements to attract more path‐breaking firms.     

Spatial Interactions of China's Steel Output: An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Inter-provincial Panel Data

In view of the extensive growth of China's steel production in recent years, this paper analyzed the industrial development background and economic geography theory, and discussed the possible spatial interaction mechanism. Based on panel data of China's inter-provincial steel output from 2001 to 2015, using spatial econometric model, this paper also explored whether China's provincial steel production shows material orientation, market orientation and traffic orientation, and isolated spatial interactions of interprovincial steel output. The results showed that the inter-provincial steel production in China did show both material orientation, market orientation and traffic orientation and that there was a significant negative spatial interaction, indicating that there might be strong competition and a crowing-out effect between neighboring provinces, and that the smaller the spatial scope, the more significant the spatial interactions of steel production.     

Shift‐Share Analysis and Changes in Japanese Manufacturing Employment

Shift‐share analysis is used to examine the role of spatial structure on changes in regional manufacturing employment, in contrast to the traditional focus of shift‐share studies on the role of industrial structure. It is argued that changes in a region's space‐economy can be understood not only in terms of the economic subdivisions of the region but also in terms of the contribution of its spatial subdivisions. The latter is illustrated by means of a case study of the contribution of different types of local area to changes in regional manufacturing employment in Japan. Each region was subdivided into four types of local area based on population density. The analysis covered the period from 1981 to 1995, a time of major transformation in Japan's space‐economy. The shift‐share model was also used to estimate the impact of local area output and productivity on changes in regional employment. In general, the results show that there was a progressive underdevelopment of the core regions, associated with falling output and productivity. The country's peripheral regions were characterized by development, associated with rising output and productivity. Atthe local scale, however, the picture is far more complex. Types of local area contributed to regional employment change in very different ways, with respect to both time, region, and output/productivity. The contribution of local spatial structure to the regional space‐economy of Japan is fundamentally fragmented and uneven.     

The Successful Transition to a Knowledge‐Based Development Path of a Less‐Developed Region

This paper presents the case of a less‐developed EU region—the Pomeranian region of Poland—that is, an example of the successful transformation from a command to market economy and the creation of a new knowledge‐based development path thanks to the upgrading of its innovation model. This successful transformation was based, in part, on the region's specific innovation policy and the activities of pro‐innovative institutions; however, other factors were also important such as the diversified structure of the region's economy. New knowledge‐based industries have developed in the region, while the potential of traditional industries that have gone through a restructuring, has been maintained. The factors that existed prior to the innovation model's transformation included such aspects as the high quality of human and social capital, a strong academic center, a high quality of life, and an open economy and society. Supply factors in the form of qualified personnel were crucial for the growth of employment in new industries and R&D that determined the improvement of the regional GDP per capita. Moreover, the transition to a knowledge‐based economy stimulated an increase in the concentration of population in the metropolitan area of Tri‐City.     

Growth and Location of Economic Activity: The Spatial Dynamics of Industries in Canada 1971–2001

ABSTRACT A growing literature has accumulated that points to the stability of industrial location patterns. Can this be reconciled with spatial dynamics? This article starts with the premise that demonstrable regularities exist in the manner in which individual industries locate (and relocate) over space. For Canada, spatial distributions of employment are examined for seventy‐one industries over a thirty‐year period (1971–2001). Industry data is organized by “synthetic regions” based on urban size and distance criteria. “Typical” location patterns are identified for industry groupings. Industrial spatial concentrations are then compared over time using correlation analysis, showing a high degree of stability. Stable industrial location patterns are not, the article finds, incompatible with differential regional growth. Five spatial processes are identified, driving change. The chief driving force is the propensity of dynamic industries to start up in large metro areas, setting off a process of diffusion (for services) and crowding out (for manufacturing), offset by the centralizing impact of greater consumer mobility and falling transport costs. These changes do not, however, significantly alter the relative spatial distribution of most industries over time.     

Natural Amenities and Rural Development: Understanding Spatial and Distributional Attributes

ABSTRACT Contemporary resource management practice and rural development planning increasingly emphasize the integration of resource extractive industries with non‐market‐based recreational and amenity values. There is a growing empirical literature which suggests that natural amenities impact regional economies through aggregate measures of economic performance such as population, income, and/or employment growth, and housing development. We maintain that assessing the developmental aspects of amenity‐led regional change requires a more thorough focus on alternative measures of economic performance such as income distribution and spatial organization. In the applied research presented here we investigate relationships between amenities and regional economic development indicators. Results suggest mixed and generally insignificant amenity‐based associations which highlight the need for appropriate regional economic modeling techniques that account for often dramatic spatial autocorrelation of natural amenity attributes. We conclude that with respect to amenity driven economic growth and development “place in space” matters.     

Do Entrepreneurs Enhance Economic Growth in Lagging Regions?

Because support for entrepreneurship is often a core part of economic development strategies, we investigate whether it is important for growth in lagging, rural U.S. regions by focusing on Appalachia. While entrepreneurship has the advantage of being endogenous and “home grown,” previous research suggests that remote rural regions may lack the agglomeration economies to benefit greatly from entrepreneurship. Using county‐level data, we explore the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth, employing self‐employment and small business data as proxies for entrepreneurship. We look at the results for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) region, using its immediate Appalachian neighbors outside the ARC region as a control group. Moreover, we also account for self‐sorting by proprietors to locate in expanding regions. Despite strong barriers to growth in Appalachia, our empirical results suggest that self‐employment is positively associated with employment and income growth, and that efforts to promote entrepreneurial capacity may be among the few economic development strategies with positive payoffs in remote regions.     

Evolutionary Geography of a Mature Resource Sector: Shakeouts and Shakeins in British Columbia's Forest Industries 1980 to 2008

This study examines the evolutionary geography of British Columbia's forest industries during a period marked by volatility and decline. Conceptually, the study draws upon the industrial life cycle model, identifying the distinctive characteristics of resource industries during the transition to maturity and beyond. Empirically, the study focuses on industry population dynamics and employment change at a meso‐scale, to reveal changing organizational, industrial, and geographical structures of BC's forest industries during the study period. There are high levels of plant exits and in some sub‐industries also of entry, a decline in large integrated firms, and important shifts in core‐periphery characteristics.     

甘肃省区域经济空间结构差异分析

基于甘肃省1999—2012年相关经济数据,借助基尼系数、多元回归等方法分析影响自西部大开发以来甘肃省区域经济差异的因素,结果表明：甘肃省三大产业结构以及区域支柱产业和资本投资规模是造成区域经济发展不平衡的主导因素;由于甘肃省贫困地区主要分布在甘肃中南部,缺乏支柱产业、交通不便、资源匮乏,产业结构单一,导致经济发展相对缓慢,带动能力较弱。由此,提出加快中心-外围一体化进程,促进区域经济发展;统筹规划产业空间布局,实现区域合作;完善区域金融与政策投向,缩小区域经济差距等优化对策。     

The heterogeneity of agglomeration effect: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using annual surveys of industrial firms in China from 1998 to 2007, this paper applies the non‐linear least squares (NLS) method based on a grid search to analyse the effect of city size on firm total factor productivity (TFP). The results show that overall, the agglomeration effects in large cities, but not selection effects, significantly promote improvement in firm TFP. The optimal agglomeration scales of different industries differ as follows: those of capital‐ and technology‐intensive industries are larger than those of labour‐intensive industries. The agglomeration effects are also robust to different spatial areas without considering administrative boundaries. An inverted U‐shaped relationship exists between firm size and agglomeration effects, while the relationship between firm age and agglomeration effects is U‐shaped. State‐owned firms experience weaker agglomeration effects than non‐state‐owned firms. Cities higher in the administrative hierarchy and those with special economic zones have stronger agglomeration effects. However, cities higher in the administrative hierarchy and those with a larger economic development zone index can provide more resources to increase the survival rate of low‐productivity firms; thus, selection effects are not significant in Chinese cities.     

The elusive quest for balanced regional growth from Barlow to Brexit: Lessons from partitioning regional employment growth in Great Britain

The British Government’s economic strategy for post‐Brexit Britain of achieving balanced regional growth by “driving growth across the whole country” echoes the objectives set by the Barlow Report of 1940. The regional policies that followed the Barlow Report were heavily influenced by papers written for the Commission by G D A (later Sir Donald) MacDougall. The first of these papers was included as an appendix to the report itself and introduced the shift‐share methodology to the analysis of regional employment growth, and subsequently shown to be flawed. The second paper considered the urban hierarchy and growth but was never fully developed. Consequently post‐war regional policy focussed on the contribution of industrial structure to employment growth without fully taking into account the urban hierarchy or regional locations of that employment. This article replaces the flawed shift‐share methodology with multifactor partitioning (MFP) and applies it to regional employment growth for the period 1971‐2012, a span of special interest because it largely coincides with British membership of the European Union (EU). The deficiencies in the second paper are addressed by introducing allometry to measure the employment growth of each region relative to that of Great Britain and then regression analysis to relate the allometries to distance from London. The results of the two sets of analyses highlight the need for a multiple‐factor, comprehensive, and integrated approach to regional policy and provide a benchmark against which to gauge the success of Britain's post‐Brexit policy of driving future growth across the whole country.     

Technology and the Convergence of U.S. Urban Migration Patterns: 1970–2000

ABSTRACT The theoretical premise of this study is twofold. First, that industrial and occupational restructuring within three industries in the U.S.—manufacturing, finance, and high technology—occurred because of technological developments and these, in turn, influenced the settlement patterns of working‐age individuals. Second, that quality‐of‐life factors are increasingly important for the migration decisions of workers as the importance of proximity to ports and raw materials declines. As expected, the results show that high concentrations of high‐technology and finance occupations generally have a positive pull for migrants, with younger migrants most attracted to technology jobs. High concentrations of manufacturing jobs have a negative effect. Most surprisingly, the explanatory power of the model declines substantially across the three decades. Both employment variables and proxies for quality‐of‐life variables lost explanatory power for modeling age‐specific in‐migration to metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Overall, the results support the industrial restructuring hypothesis, but do not find support for the idea that quality‐of‐life factors have grown in importance.     

Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis

Most applications of shift-share analysis to regional employment change have used a study period of several years and have examined conditions only at the beginning and end years. This comparative static approach does not take into account the continuous changes in both industrial mix and size of total employment of the region over the study period. Calculating the national growth effect, the industrial mix effect, and the competitive effect on an annual basis and then summing the results over the study period provides a more accurate allocation of job changes among the three shift-share effects. This approach, which we term dynamic shift-share analysis, also allows unusual years and years of economic transition to he identified. We illustrate the use of dynamic shift-share by presenting results of an analysis of New England employment growth from 1939 to 1984, using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The use of the dynamic form of shift-share is important when the study period is characterized by either large changes in regional industrial mix or major differences between regional and national growth rates.     

State Infrastructure and the Geography of Employment

ABSTRACT The effects of state public capital investment on economic growth is an important question that has been the focus of a recent substantial research effort. But the majority of this research has ignored these investments’influence on the intra-state pattern of economic activity. Yet if external agglomeration economies are important determinants of growth, then investments may indirectly affect growth by fostering or discouraging agglomeration. This paper discusses the effect of state infrastructure investments on the distribution of employment within states and the implications of these spatial effects for aggregate state employment growth. Preliminary empirical results suggest that state infrastructure investments tend to redistribute growth from areas of dense employment to other parts of the state. This redistribution may diminish agglomeration benefits offered by cities, which has the potential to reduce state growth. The paper concludes with a discussion of implications of the work for research and policy.     

Environmental Protection and Impact on Adjacent Economies: Evidence from the Swedish Mountain Region

The study presented here considers the effects of protected land on neighboring local economies, based on a panel data analysis of its influence on economic growth, net migration, and employment in the forest and tourism sectors in 15 municipalities in northwestern Sweden from 1985 to 2001. The main findings are that increases in the area of protected land in this region seem to have promoted slight increases in per capita income growth and net migration, slight reductions in employment in the forest sector, and possible increases (not significant at the 5 percent probability level) in employment in the tourism sector. In addition, there are indications of conditional divergence in the Swedish mountain region, implying that small economies grow more slowly here than larger economies.     

Does Casino Development Have a Positive Effect on Economic Growth?

This study examines the relationship between casinos and economic growth in the U.S. Using county‐level data on the 48 contiguous states from 2003 to 2012, we estimate the effect of casinos on per capita income growth and job creation. Our research procedures include examining the relationship using level‐to‐level panel data, and 3‐year and 10‐year differenced data. An instrumental variable approach is also considered to account for potential endogeneity of the casino variable. Although, the instruments are both relevant and exogenous, test results found insufficient evidence of endogeneity in our panel data models. In addition, we estimate a spatial error model (SEM) to account for the unobserved spatial characteristics that may affect economic growth in the counties but are not captured by our conventional econometric models. Our results show that casinos had a positive effect on per capita income; casino expansions exerted a small, positive effect on both per capita income growth and job growth. However, the effect of casino expansions on 10‐year per capita income growth dissipated when we controlled for the spatial autocorrelation in our model. Nevertheless, the SEMs results also suggest that casino expansions continued to have a positive effect on the 2003–2012 job growth.     

Spatial Patterns in the Economic Development of the Mountain West

ABSTRACT Many counties in the mountainous areas of the western U.S. are experiencing rapid growth in population and income, even though extractive industries that served historically as their primary economic base are in decline. The purpose of this paper is to establish statistically the spatial determinants of population, employment, and income densities in 86 rural mountain counties and any changes in those determinants between 1985 and 1994. The results of this analysis indicate that densities are oriented to regional metropolitan centers and critical amenities such as ski areas, national parks, and universities or colleges. Negatively sloped density gradients with respect to distance from regional metropolitan centers suggest that the densities of settlement patterns beyond metropolitan boundaries are analogous to those within metropolitan areas relative to urban centers. In short, a tension apparently exists in locational choice; residents of the Mountain West desire to live near the beauties and amenities of the mountain landscape but do not want to entirely sever their urban ties. Because amenities are the primary attraction of mountain counties rather than employment in locationally dependent industries, at least some migrants must have relatively footloose forms of income.